Josh & Anna Smuggar: A Series of Unfortunate Events

[SunnyBeBe]

Is Josh a licensed pilot?

[galaxygirl76]

1 hour ago, Oldernowiser said:

I would think the prosecution would argue that the existence of those children is a reason to deny him bond, not grant it. It’s not like he’s been charged with Grand Theft Auto. 

Is the court allowed to use the molestation of his sisters as well as a reason to refuse bond or is that not in consideration because it never went to court? 

[3girlsforus]

1 hour ago, GeeGolly said:

Since Josh's lawyers requested the bond hearing, we know JB is onboard. Does that mean as long as Josh has everything lined up, his release will be automatically be approved?

I would think if the answer would be no, the hearing would have been denied to begin with.

I think it’s likely he will be offered bond. The Subway Jared guy got bond on similar charges but his actually included traveling to molest a child (can’t remember the legal term) so I would think Josh will be granted bond as well. Whether it’s too high to pay it is another story. 

[MsJamieDornan]

33 minutes ago, SunnyBeBe said:

Is Josh a licensed pilot?

Josh is barely licensed to drive.

[ozziemom]

32 minutes ago, SunnyBeBe said:

Is Josh a licensed pilot?

We have never seen him piloting a plane. I think JD, sinner twin Jer and Josiah have been shown flying a plane.

[Tikichick]

It just occurred to me that the transfer of assets into LLCs in Anna's name will likely be raised as a negative factor in a bond hearing, particularly if the timing was in the wake of the raid on the car lot.   

[Marshmallow Mollie]

I assume currently Anna receives a monthly stipend from Jim Bob. That amount of money might be fine for six kids under 10, but in five years it’s not going to be enough for seven kids including many teenagers. Does she go ask Jim Bob for a raise? I doubt he is going to adjust the stipend on his own. How awkward. Surely the family with their messed up beliefs is laying some of blame at her feet. Add to that the legal expenses and possible fines that Josh will incur. Again, how awkward that Anna is completely reliant on them. We may see the M kids get real, worldly jobs as soon as they are of age out of necessity.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Marshmallow Mollie

[ginger90]

3 hours ago, Rabbittron said:

Why do I have this strange feeling that Smugs is going to go to the federal country club prison in Englewood Colorado?

Possibly, or Texas, or Ohio.

He won’t get to choose.

Edited May 4, 2021 by ginger90

[libgirl2]

13 minutes ago, Marshmallow Mollie said:

I assume currently Anna receives a monthly stipend from Jim Bob. That amount of money might be fine for six kids under 10, but in five years it’s not going to be enough for seven kids including many teenagers. Does she go ask Jim Bob for a raise? I doubt he is going to adjust the stipend on his own. How awkward. Surely the family with their messed up beliefs is laying some of blame at her feet. Add to that the legal expenses and possible fines that Josh will incur. Again, how awkward that Anna is completely reliant on them. We may see the M kids get real, worldly jobs as soon as they are of age out of necessity.

Maybe he will send her back home to the Kellers. 

[crazy8s]

21 minutes ago, Marshmallow Mollie said:

I assume currently Anna receives a monthly stipend from Jim Bob. That amount of money might be fine for six kids under 10, but in five years it’s not going to be enough for seven kids including many teenagers. Does she go ask Jim Bob for a raise? I doubt he is going to adjust the stipend on his own. How awkward. Surely the family with their messed up beliefs is laying some of blame at her feet. Add to that the legal expenses and possible fines that Josh will incur. Again, how awkward that Anna is completely reliant on them. We may see the M kids get real, worldly jobs as soon as they are of age out of necessity.

I assume Anna, Josh, Jana etc have a duggar issued credit/debit card and someone checks all the charges each month. Josh and Anna seem to own no vehicle other than the junker RV. So they drive a car from the Duggar fleet. The only trips they take are with JB and Michelle or other family. Possibly Anna has a bit of money from the LLC property shifting shenanigans to buy household items, but I am not sure how much she would be free to spend.

Enough at least to buy that faux fireplace that doubles as tv storage she claimed JoshUa built.....🤣

[dariafan]

20 hours ago, Tikichick said:

I doubt law enforcement would inform the family per se.   I've started to consider if possibly Josiah was subpoenaed to testify in front of the grand jury, giving some insight into what was happening to the family as a whole, or parts of the family that were unaware, etc. 

ETA  That's awkwardly worded.   Not that Josiah would have testified as to the family, but being subpoenaed and testifying would have offered the family some insight into what was happening regarding the raid. 

With hindsight it's kind of noticeable that within the past couple months there have been some noticeable changes from several of the married couples, or tenseness.  And that last episode that aired, the "Easter" episode, was just Twilight Zone.  JD and Abbie were distinctly there to participate, but not a single comment aired from either one?   The awkwardness was palpable.   Jessa and Ben seem very tense.   Joy and Austin were discussed for a little while, although that also could have been related to their daughter needing to be examined by a specialist.   Jinger and Jeremy have been a trainwreck it seems no one can stop gawking at.

I doubt we'll ever know who knew what when, but it is interesting.      

Honestly as more get married , I think they are finding they don’t like each other as much. Or the spouses are suggesting to them know things in their world aren’t normal.  They may visit inlaws and see how other people act and do around each other.  
 

and i dont think josh has paid attention to anythibf jb has done with money 

[crazy8s]

17 minutes ago, dariafan said:

Honestly as more get married , I think they are finding they don’t like each other as much. Or the spouses are suggesting to them know things in their world aren’t normal.  They may visit inlaws and see how other people act and do around each other. 

and i dont think josh has paid attention to anything jb has done with money 

I don't think any of them have any idea and that's how JB wants it.

Trying to think what Abbie said not all that long ago. something about she was used to budgeting/living on a budget or something and her comment was John never lived like that.

[Ohiopirate02]

21 minutes ago, dariafan said:

Honestly as more get married , I think they are finding they don’t like each other as much. Or the spouses are suggesting to them know things in their world aren’t normal.  They may visit inlaws and see how other people act and do around each other.  
 

and i dont think josh has paid attention to anythibf jb has done with money 

Josh only paid attention to his bank account balance.  As long as his needs were met, he wouldn't say anything about how JB handles the rest of the family's money.

[Zella]

1 minute ago, crazy8s said:

I don't think any of them have any idea and that's how JB wants it.

Trying to think what Abbie said not all that long ago. something about she was used to budgeting/living on a budget or something and her comment was John never lived like that.

If I'm not mistaken, she was talking about a lack of regular, reliable income, so she was used to the idea of a steady paycheck and found it stressful to not have that and to still have to budget without that. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Zella

[crazy8s]

6 minutes ago, Zella said:

If I'm not mistaken, she was talking about a lack of regular, reliable income, so she was used to the idea of a steady paycheck and found it stressful to not have that and to still have to budget without that. 

thanks - I couldn't remember the context of what she said, just that it was about budgeting

[Whyyouneedaname]

2 minutes ago, crazy8s said:

thanks - I couldn't remember the context of what she said, just that it was about budgeting

She also made mention of how she always lived on a schedule of going to bed at a certain time every night and waking up at a certain hour every morning & how John Boy (as she referred to him as) didn't grow up that way. She probably found out there was very little structure in that household. 

 

[Zella]

5 minutes ago, Whyyouneedaname said:

She also made mention of how she always lived on a schedule of going to bed at a certain time every night and waking up at a certain hour every morning & how John Boy (as she referred to him as) didn't grow up that way. She probably found out there was very little structure in that household. 

 

Enough spouses have mentioned that that I think it would be really hard for any of the Duggar kids to work a normal job, at least at first. Just yet another way their parents screwed them over.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Zella

[mittsigirl]

7 hours ago, doodlebug said:

I don't recall that version of the story.  On the show, Michelle was discussing the importance of women dressing modestly to avoid arousing men.  She talked about mowing the lawn in a bikini when she was in high school.  Her neighbor happened to see her, and, shortly afterwards, divorced his wife.  Michelle seemed to think that the sight of her in a swimsuit drove the man into a lustful frenzy which caused him to end his marriage.  

Michelle never said that her neighbor actually flirted with her, admired her bikini or otherwise expressed any interest in her.  Nor did the neighbor or his wife every tell her that her lawn mowing outfit had anything whatsoever to do with the collapse of the marriage.  Michelle apparently assumed she was just so darned irresistible that it was inevitably her fault.

It was my best friend who told me this story, I wasn't watching the show until she told it to me. I can't even discuss it with her now because, sadly, she passed away years ago:( But if you say this is the way it happened DOODLEBUG, then it must be the right story. MY friend died from a brain tumor, it is very possible she got mixed up with this story. I also lost a daughter to brain cancer and I know that as it progresses, they get very mixed up about things. Sorry for putting the wrong info out there, thanks for clearing it up with the true story, I appreciate knowing how it really happened.

[Oldernowiser]

23 minutes ago, Ohiopirate02 said:

Josh only paid attention to his bank account balance.  As long as his needs were met, he wouldn't say anything about how JB handles the rest of the family's money.

I wonder, though…his “I am the first-borne, bow down ye peasants,” status took a pretty big hit after the second scandal. If JB really tightened his leash, I could definitely see Josh sneaking around to make sure he was still getting the money that in his mind he was entitled to. He’s apparently tech savvy, he has a lot of free time, he’s a known sneak, and I suspect he resents JB almost as much as he needs him.

[PrincessPurrsALot]

5 hours ago, Tabbygirl521 said:

Will they shave Josh’s head again and make him dig another pond? Or something worse, since that didn’t do the trick before?

Shave his whole body and make him dig two ponds?  As the Lord said, if thy right hand offends thee, dig ponds all over town until everyone has a pond.  Pond digging will prevent you from all transgressions, no matter how heinous. 

[mynextmistake]

8 hours ago, GeeGolly said:

Since Josh's lawyers requested the bond hearing, we know JB is onboard. Does that mean as long as Josh has everything lined up, his release will be automatically be approved?

I would think if the answer would be no, the hearing would have been denied to begin with.

No, that’s not how this works. Defendants are entitled to bond hearings because except in a very small proportion of cases they’re entitled to pretrial bondl. It’s in the 8th Amendment. There are some cases where the prosecution could argue that they only way to protect the public interest pending trial is to keep a defendant behind bars, but this would be really unusual. In most cases, bond has to be granted. The court can impose conditions on it that will protect the public interest, such as a third party custodian, a high bail amount, and rules like no contact with unaccompanied minors, but they usually can’t deny bond outright. They also can’t deny a request for a bond hearing, because the defendant has a right to present a case for bond.

I am afraid that people are going to be really disappointed tomorrow. The sole purpose for bail conditions is to ensure that the public interests are upheld before trial. They are to keep the defendant from absconding, and make sure he or she does not commit any additional offenses in the pre-trial period. They aren’t punitive. The judge cannot keep Josh in jail just because he thinks he’s a scummy pervert. Furthermore, if Jed or one of the other siblings without children in the home were to present as a third-party custodian, there’s a very good chance that they would get approved. As long as they are willing to agree to monitor Josh 24/7 and make sure he follows his bail conditions, there’s no reason for a judge not to approve them. The prosecution is free to argue that they’re all under JB‘s thumb and unlikely to be good third-party custodians, but frankly a judge a bond hearing doesn’t have time to get into a psychoanalysis of an entire family. I think we forget the most people in the world don’t know as much about these folks as we do.

ETA so I’ve done some more research and it turns out more people get held pretrial for federal offenses than I thought. About half (51%) of defendants who have no criminal record are released pretrial. This is confusing because the statistics don’t distinguish between those who aren’t granted bond and those who are but can’t pay it. I can’t imagine that denying bond outright to half your detainees would pass constitutional muster, so I’m thinking a relatively high proportion of the 49% who remain in jail couldn’t pay bond. Also, sometimes release to a third party is considered release and sometimes it isn’t, so I don’t know how that would impact these statistics. 
 

Conclusion: Josh will probably still get out, but it’s less of a sure thing than I originally thought. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by mynextmistake

[coconspirator]

According to TMZ Smuggar wants to be released so that he can be with Anna while she's pregnant. Surely the feds won't allow her to be his third party and won't allow him to be around his children while on bail. I expect him to be delusional and entitled, I just hope the prosecutors hold the line and burst his little smug bubble. 

[ginger90]

Just saw this:

In general, there is a rebuttable presumption that release should not be granted if it is alleged that a defendant has committed a crime for which the term of imprisonment is ten years of more, a defendant has committed an act of terrorism, a defendant has trafficked in humans, or the crime committed involved a minor.

[Gigi43]

So according to TMZ, Josh's docs for bond include saying he's too famous to get away with fleeing (debatable but I say he's not that famous where a lot of people could identify him in public), he hasn't fled even though he's known since November 2019 and turned himself in (actually a good argument) so I guess people just assumed the raid was financial? The family very well could have known for a while since it says he's been in contact with the state, and he needs to take care of Anna---which, ah, good luck with that unless Anna would rather have Josh taking care of her than have her children in the home. 

 

https://www.tmz.com/2021/05/04/josh-duggar-requests-bail-not-flight-risk-child-porn-charges/

Edited May 4, 2021 by Gigi43

[Zella]

4 minutes ago, Gigi43 said:

unless Anna would rather have Josh taking care of her than have her children in the home.

Unfortunately, I could actually see her agreeing to that. 

[mynextmistake]

2 minutes ago, coconspirator said:

According to TMZ Smuggar wants to be released so that he can be with Anna while she's pregnant. Surely the feds won't allow her to be his third party and won't allow him to be around his children while on bail. I expect him to be delusional and entitled, I just hope the prosecutors hold the line and burst his little smug bubble. 

Spouses are frequently appointed as third parties. It could happen. But I do think any sensible judge will keep the no unsupervised minors rule, and should realize that a pregnant woman with six kids will be unable to guarantee she will always be able to supervise the kids in Josh’s presence. I expect the defense will put forth either Jana (with JB proposing a new address she can live at with Josh during the pendency of the case) or Jed. None of the other kids would be suitable because they have children, and I honestly can’t imagine any of them signing up for this duty anyway. 

And Josh doesn’t give two beans about being with Anna when she’s pregnant. His lawyer just thinks that’s what will make him sound most sympathetic to the bail judge. 

[Future Cat Lady]

He wants to take care of his wife my ass.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Future Cat Lady

[mynextmistake]

13 minutes ago, ginger90 said:

Just saw this:

In general, there is a rebuttable presumption that release should not be granted if it is alleged that a defendant has committed a crime for which the term of imprisonment is ten years of more, a defendant has committed an act of terrorism, a defendant has trafficked in humans, or the crime committed involved a minor.

Interesting. Where did you see that? 
 

Release to a third party isn’t considered release, it’s considered an alternative to detention, like an ankle monitor. It might seem to be a semantic difference but it impacts likelihood of release. This is an interesting piece on federal pretrial release considerations.

https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/73_2_1_0.pdf

Edited May 4, 2021 by mynextmistake

[crazy8s]

I have no doubt he will get out on bond tomorrow. Where he will go and with what restrictions will be interesting.

Duggar pal Caleb Williams raped and impregnated a minor and got 62 days in jail with work release. 18 mo parole - No internet without permission from his parole officer.  (who is monitoring that) That scum has been suing for partial custody of the child for quite a while.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by crazy8s

[Oldernowiser]

13 minutes ago, coconspirator said:

According to TMZ Smuggar wants to be released so that he can be with Anna while she's pregnant. Surely the feds won't allow her to be his third party and won't allow him to be around his children while on bail. I expect him to be delusional and entitled, I just hope the prosecutors hold the line and burst his little smug bubble. 

If anyone bothers to check out how well Josh “took care of” Anna when she was in labor, they’d know this is a big old crock. And it’s on tape.

[Jeanne222]

I think josh will go with Anna in the pole barn and the six kids will go to the big house!  What’s six more!

Anna can go there during the day and Baby Josh will be snug as a bug in a rug!

Yep!

[Tikichick]

5 minutes ago, Zella said:

Unfortunately, I could actually see her agreeing to that. 

I hope not on so many levels.

That kind of thing really has the potential of opening the door for big-time CPS involvement.  Sadly it's not even a little bit uncommon in cases where a husband is facing accusations of sexual abuse of a child or children in the home for the wife to insist she's not going to break with her husband.   I legitimately cannot tell you how many parents I have seen lose parental rights for exactly that issue.  I can never wrap my brain around it.

[Oldernowiser]

8 minutes ago, Zella said:

Unfortunately, I could actually see her agreeing to that. 

What I don’t understand is the logic that spouses can’t be compelled to testify against their spouses, right? Presumably because of the inherent conflict between truth and loyalty. But it’s okay to assume a spouse would babysit their spouse responsibly while they’re out on bail?

I am confused.

15 minutes ago, Gigi43 said:

So according to TMZ, Josh's docs for bond include saying he's too famous to get away with fleeing (debatable but I say he's not that famous where a lot of people could identify him in public),

Oh, please. Put him in a baseball hat and he’s identical to a million other fat guys from Arkansas. Or any state, really. Give me a break.

[ginger90]

7 minutes ago, mynextmistake said:

Interesting. Where did you see that? 

I normally put the link. I thought I did.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.robertguest.com/amp/bail-and-release-pending-trial-in-federal-cases.htm

[Zella]

Question for our federal folks. 

How many third-party guardian candidates are you allowed to propose for this bond hearing?

My totally armchair guess is if Anna is the only candidate put forth, then his request for release is more likely to be turned down because it really is dumb of them and, at least to me, raises red flags about the likelihood of enforcement of the requirements actually happening.

But if she is one of a handful or is not mentioned, then I could see the request being more likely to be granted. (Though, again, I'm not really sure how much success anyone is going to have with supervising him.)

But I have no clue! Just spitballing. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Zella

[crazy8s]

8 minutes ago, Oldernowiser said:

Oh, please. Put him in a baseball hat and he’s identical to a million other fat guys from Arkansas. Or any state, really. Give me a break.

Jed! better go into hiding because he is totally Smuggar 2.0 in looks, size, hairline and smugness

[BigBingerBro]

[BigBingerBro]

JOSH DUGGAR Wants Out Of Jail On Bail I'M TOO FAMOUS TO BE FLIGHT RISK!!!

[Tikichick]

7 minutes ago, BigBingerBro said:

I cannot believe that an attorney with a history as a federal prosecutor and experience in these types of cases would actually draft a petition with that language minimizing the actual harm caused to children arising from the charges alleged here.   He would know that's going to face blistering and derisive opposition from the prosecution, like TV style oration fireworks. 

ETA  He would also be well aware just how unseemly it will look to propose Anna as monitor, knowing that would mean she would be abandoning six children with no parents to do so.    

Edited May 4, 2021 by Tikichick

[MargeGunderson]

3 hours ago, Zella said:

If I'm not mistaken, she was talking about a lack of regular, reliable income, so she was used to the idea of a steady paycheck and found it stressful to not have that and to still have to budget without that. 

That would stress me out so much. I can’t imagine not having my own money, and being in control of it. I married a guy who is more than happy to let me handle all of that, but the fact that he doesn’t care about it stresses me out too. I could be squirreling away money in an off shore account and he wouldn’t have a clue. (You guys won’t rat me out, will you?)

Edited May 4, 2021 by MargeGunderson

[Chicklet]

A 20 some year old Bentonville guy just got 30 years for this crime. He claimed that "since the images were from the 70's, the children were now adults so it shouldn't count.

Criminals, go figure. Is it too much to hope that Josh shared this lawyer?

[Scarlett45]

3 hours ago, Zella said:

If I'm not mistaken, she was talking about a lack of regular, reliable income, so she was used to the idea of a steady paycheck and found it stressful to not have that and to still have to budget without that. 

That's how I remember it as well. 

I don't think Anna's financial circumstances will change any time soon. She was reliant on JB for income, and I think she will continue to do so. Likely JB gives her a set amount to run her household on, and if she needs something irregular (like a major car repair) she has to ask him. IF JB keeps dolling out the allowance I dont think the M kids will suffer from lack of basic necessities.

I also think its like Anna would move back into the TTH before she went back to the Kellers and Mackynzie and Meredith will continue to provide domestic duties, child care for the nieces/nephews (as well as the younger M kids) and elder care for JB and Michelle as they age. Just because its simpler. The TTH has the room and they are already there. I also think the older M kids have attachments to their Duggar cousins and Anna likely wants to give them a chance to keep up those relationships. 

[coconspirator]

14 minutes ago, Chicklet said:

A 20 some year old Bentonville guy just got 30 years for this crime. He claimed that "since the images were from the 70's, the children were now adults so it shouldn't count.

Criminals, go figure. Is it too much to hope that Josh shared this lawyer?

I wonder if some of the sentences are due to the results of a SORA (sexual offender risk assessment). If one is ordered for Josh as part of the trial or sentencing phase and the examiner comes back with the conclusion that he is high risk (or low risk, on the opposite end) to reoffend with the same or worse behavior, that might influence his sentence if he's convicted or offers a plea. 

[ginger90]

23 minutes ago, Chicklet said:

A 20 some year old Bentonville guy just got 30 years for this crime. He claimed that "since the images were from the 70's, the children were now adults so it shouldn't count.

Criminals, go figure. Is it too much to hope that Josh shared this lawyer?

I saw that. His was state.

He pleaded guilty to 20 counts of distributing, possessing or viewing matter depicting sexually explicit conduct involving a child.

A friend of his initially reported it to police. I say good for the friend!

 

 

[Absolom]

46 minutes ago, Tikichick said:

That kind of thing really has the potential of opening the door for big-time CPS involvement.  Sadly it's not even a little bit uncommon in cases where a husband is facing accusations of sexual abuse of a child or children in the home for the wife to insist she's not going to break with her husband.   I legitimately cannot tell you how many parents I have seen lose parental rights for exactly that issue.  I can never wrap my brain around it.

It happens far, far too frequently.  A friend of mine would not break from her husband even after a dreadful incident with their newborn second child.  It took her so much effort to regain custody of the first child and then she complained because she was on the state's register and couldn't adopt.  She to this day swears she did nothing wrong.  Telling her straight up you stayed with the abuser what did you expect still gets a string of excuses.  She lived through it all and still can't see it or can't admit it.  

Anna seems even less attached to the real world and probably would make the same mistake.

[Tuxcat]

I am guessing the prosecution cannot reference Josh's pattern of behavior at the bond hearing (or at all going forward)?

[emmawoodhouse]

7 minutes ago, Tuxcat said:

I am guessing the prosecution cannot reference Josh's pattern of behavior at the bond hearing (or at all going forward)?

I think he gets out on a fairly steep bond. I have no clue as to whom the 3rd party will be. I assume he'll also have to wear a tracker. 

[MrsClaus]

Anyone else think Josh might be safer in jail instead of out?

[humbleopinion]

Joshly is a flight risk...

His family owns a plane, 3 brothers are pilots.

 Sister and BIL lived in Laredo with his family and contacts still residing at the border.

[MargeGunderson]

Just now, humbleopinion said:

Joshly is a flight risk...

His family owns a plane, 3 brothers are pilots.

 Sister and BIL lived in Laredo with his family and contacts still residing at the border.

Also, his family has a history of downplaying serious incidents involving Josh.