Josh & Anna Smuggar: A Series of Unfortunate Events

[Future Cat Lady]

3 minutes ago, NoThyme said:

Child protective services should step in an remove these children from these illegal living conditions. The family (B&M) have plenty of money to house them correctly.  I wonder if Child services knows this. 

Considering the charges against Josh and his past, wouldn't CPS automatically pay them a visit?

[Tabbygirl521]

37 minutes ago, IndianPaintbrush said:

I saw that. Even if this shady ex-con exists (hard to imagine anyone shadier than Josh), the feds have a very high bar and I doubt they would have charged Josh without evidence pointing directly at him.

Anna's a fool, but I guess cultists gotta cult.

I watch a lot of Dateline and similar shows. This sounds like a pretty standard “rationale.” You can’t believe how ridiculous some “explanations” can be when a person is charged with a crime. 

[Tuxcat]

10 minutes ago, Jeeves said:

I mean if Josh has supposedly been "telling people" this tale of a sleazy ex-con, how? He's in jail, not driving around schmoozing, and I doubt he has his mobile phone all cozy with him in his cell. 

 I assume she meant that he told Anna, JB, Michelle... She also said Josh self -surrendered and Anna went with him. But yeah, who knows. Rumors are everywhere.

[Churchhoney]

For some context, here's the recent outcome -- including the penalty phase -- of a similar case to Josh's, also in the Western District of Arkansas. Press release: 

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdar/pr/fayetteville-man-sentenced-over-7-years-federal-prison-child-pornography

(I haven't seen this posted here yet, but if it already has been -- sorry for the repetition...) 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Churchhoney

[Tikichick]

1 minute ago, Future Cat Lady said:

Considering the charges against Josh and his past, wouldn't CPS automatically pay them a visit?

Most of the time CPS becomes involved and investigates when they receive a complaint that they deem meets the threshold and reliability to do an inquiry.   They get a lot of complaints that are deemed frivolous due to the nature of the complaint itself, or by virtue of the person making the complaint being unable to demonstrate the information is reliable.

Let's say I made a complaint about Future Cat Lady alleging that your children were being forced to live as cats because you are clearly obsessed with cats.   When the CPS investigator spoke with me they discover I have never met Future Cat Lady, have never seen her children and can't even offer up any support for the idea that you even have a cat obsession, let alone force your children to live their lives as cats, aside from the fact you use the name Future Cat Lady on the internet.   CPS ain't paying a call to do a welfare check on Future Cat Lady's children.

In rational, non delusional world a lot of CPS investigations arise out of the complaints of teachers, medical providers, neighbors, friends, family/extended family, daycare providers, etc.   The insular nature of the Duggar family cuts off the opportunity for most traditional objective observations of the children.  I do suspect that the current situation with Josh will now provide enough support for the probability that the wellbeing of the children merits an official visit.   It also has likely  opened up the opportunity to envelop the TTH gang and associated network into at least an initial look see because of the closeness of the living arrangements and the known association for schooling of the children in group situations at the TTH.   Everything about Josh and Anna's living situation with the children will be  scrutinized, living quarters, education, attention to medical matters, customary supervision arrangements for the children, etc.   They have a problem if there is no certificate of occupancy for the warehouse as it's understood by the internet community.

Honestly I suspect they may consider the immediate risk Josh could pose as handled at the moment and therefore trying to be sensitive to the fact that they're dealing with children who are probably traumatized enough by suddenly disappeared dad and no doubt upset mom and are kind of pausing before stepping in for an assessment.  The fact that mom is also pregnant is probably another reason they are standing back.   Depending on how this plays out CPS oversight may become the new norm for Anna.   The close ties and routine interaction with the TTH and the others who routinely hang out there with their children on days ending in Y offer the possibility CPS takes some action to regularly monitor situations there, too.  If the TTH ends up under a microscope Jessa may come to recognize the challenges in the size of her own home in relation to the number of children she has.

[Tuxcat]

3 minutes ago, Churchhoney said:

For some context, here's the recent outcome -- penalty phase -- of a similar case to Josh's, also in the Western District of Arkansas -- press release: 

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdar/pr/fayetteville-man-sentenced-over-7-years-federal-prison-child-pornography

(I haven't seen this posted here yet, but if it already has been -- sorry for the repetition...) 

Interesting. In that Arkansas case evidence was found April 2019 and the guy was indicted Jan 2020. 

I understand that its not unusual to take a long time to process as in the case against Josh - but it does make you wonder why in this  example case, they were able to move much more quickly. Either that means they needed much more time to tie Josh to the computer or there is more going on that we don't know about.

[Chai]

4 minutes ago, Churchhoney said:

For some context, here's the recent outcome -- penalty phase -- of a similar case to Josh's, also in the Western District of Arkansas -- press release: 

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdar/pr/fayetteville-man-sentenced-over-7-years-federal-prison-child-pornography

(I haven't seen this posted here yet, but if it already has been -- sorry for the repetition...) 

Thank you for posting that link. I was wondering if everyone who downloads and views  cp  is a federal offense or if there are other circumstances that make it so. 

[quarks]

13 minutes ago, Jeeves said:

I'm among those still chuckling at the idea of a sleazy ex-con being hired to work at the JB Josh car lot and given enough access to the office computer to download images of child sexual abuse.  I suppose they could claim it was a matter of some kind of "prison ministry" to give an ex-con a chance, and I could also see JB wanting to hire someone on the real cheap. But did that "car lot" really have enough business or inventory to need any help other than what Josh and his bros could handle? On the whole I discount that whole rumor; I mean if Josh has supposedly been "telling people" this tale of a sleazy ex-con, how? He's in jail, not driving around schmoozing, and I doubt he has his mobile phone all cozy with him in his cell. 

Presumably he's been speaking to his lawyers and possibly various prison guards, and he may have been allowed a few brief family visits over the weekend. So I can believe that part of the rumor.

The sleazy ex-con part, not so much.

[WinnieWinkle]

5 minutes ago, quarks said:

The sleazy ex-con part, not so much.

I doubt this is actually true and they are about to find out that spreading rumours to gullible fans is one thing - expecting a judge and jury to believe your rumours as fact without any proof to back you up is quite another.  It's a problem a lot of these cultists have in common with conspiracy theorists.  It all comes tumbling down when you are put in a situation where the people deciding your fate have not drunk your kool-aid.

[Churchhoney]

Here's a Western District of Arkansas search page on Project Safe Childhood. There are many similar cases. While the project deals with other crimes, too, possession and sometimes receipt of images are the most common, not surprisingly. The sentences tend to be between 6 and 8 years. But you can see for yourself in this list -- 

https://search.justice.gov/search?query=project+safe+childhood&op=Search&affiliate=justice-usao-arw

Edited May 3, 2021 by Churchhoney

[humbleopinion]

Just park a double wide inside the warehouse and...instant housing with AC and toilet.

Another sh*t sandwich Anna has to cut up and share with her kids because of her soulmate’s inability to think of anyone else than himself.

The Martyr Crown may have just been snatched off Chelle and plopped on Anna but not with a mighty struggle to give up the crown....

[Tikichick]

15 hours ago, Absolom said:

He seemed to do OK with the structure at the Jesus reform camp Jim Bob sent him to.  He came out looking the best he had in years.

That's at the end.   What did he look like in the stages of grappling with the concept of conforming to that kind of structure?

[doodlebug]

21 minutes ago, Tuxcat said:

Interesting. In that Arkansas case evidence was found April 2019 and the guy was indicted Jan 2020. 

I understand that its not unusual to take a long time to process as in the case against Josh - but it does make you wonder why in this  example case, they were able to move much more quickly. Either that means they needed much more time to tie Josh to the computer or there is more going on that we don't know about.

One word: COVID. Everything has moved much more slowly over the past year.

[Jeeves]

2 minutes ago, doodlebug said:

One word: COVID. Everything has moved much more slowly over the past year.

I agree 100%. I'm dealing with an estate probate case and although it hasn't been too bad, even routine filings and orders are generally taking longer because of the pandemic.

I'd expect that complex investigations and indictments like this one were also impacted. For example, a grand jury always meets in person - did they have to convene one virtually during the pandemic? That's just one example of how the courts, along with everyone else, has had to adapt operations since March 2020.

[Chai]

I do remember watching 19kids and counting when Josh and Anna lived in Grandma Mary’s old house. Anna was pregnant and had Mackenzie and went shopping in a thrift store and showed her shopping and cooking. On one they showed Josh’s car lot with one employee that was an excovict or something. 

Im trying to find it, but it was so long ago.
 

[Tikichick]

15 hours ago, Zella said:

Except he did have a way out. He could have left. But he didn't. 

Ultimately does he understand and recognize that concept?   I absolutely don't believe Anna had a moment's hesitation that leaving Josh was a possibility.   After watching what cults are capable of doing to the minds of educated, sophisticated and successful adults who become entranced, entirely enmeshed and no concept of removing themselves, I definitely don't think people raised in that kind of control from birth are likely to conceptualize the need to get out.

I suspect Anna will be ultimately forced by CPS and court oversight of Josh and will attempt to use that as a protective shield to defend her circumstances to the rest of the cult.

[Zella]

4 minutes ago, Tikichick said:

Ultimately does he understand and recognize that concept?   I absolutely don't believe Anna had a moment's hesitation that leaving Josh was a possibility.   After watching what cults are capable of doing to the minds of educated, sophisticated and successful adults who become entranced, entirely enmeshed and no concept of removing themselves, I definitely don't think people raised in that kind of control from birth are likely to conceptualize the need to get out.

I suspect Anna will be ultimately forced by CPS and court oversight of Josh and will attempt to use that as a protective shield to defend her circumstances to the rest of the cult.

I don't know, but I just really object to the characterization of Josh as completely powerless. He's shown he doesn't have a problem with subverting the family rules. I think if he really wanted to leave, he probably would have been more empowered to do so than Anna or his sisters. 

[Albanyguy]

14 hours ago, coconspirator said:

I also think it’s probable that JB knew what was up even before Josh had to tell him. I suspect if JB  knew then Michelle also knew. The rest of the family was very likely left in the dark until the last minute.

ITA. Here's my take on this:

As soon as the Feds swooped down on them in November, 2019, Jim Bob probably had a moment of total panic, assuming that they were after HIM for financial crimes, but quickly discarded this in favor of "that stupid Josh has screwed up again". A quick glance at the warrant probably confirmed this. JB then confronted Josh who stonewalled for a while but, more frightened of Daddy than the Feds, finally blubbered out the whole story. 

Michelle would have known everything right away. Despite his swagger, JB is a deeply insecure, easily frightened man and I think, except for when she's being "joyfully available", Michelle has always been a "mommy" figure for him. When anything bad happens, he instinctively runs to her for comfort and reassurance. Paralyzed with terror at another threat to their little kingdom, they fell back on a "wait and see" approach. Josh was told to keep his mouth shut (which he was glad to do) and they deliberately kept the other kids in the dark, telling them that the raid on the car lot was all a big mistake and didn't amount to anything. The kids, trained from birth to believe everything JB told them, accepted this. The sole exception would have been Jeremy, who would have become more determined to keep distancing himself and Jinger from the rest of the clan. TLC would have been harder to deal with and JB must have done some serious ducking and weaving when the network questioned him about the raid. The network brass probably decided not to cut ties with the Duggars just yet, but to scale back the number of episodes in case the shit hit the fan.

As time went by and nothing happened, Josh and Michelle probably deluded themselves that it had all blown over. JB , slightly more realistic, was worried enough to consult Travis Story who was alarmed enough to bring Justin Gelfand into the picture. Gelfand would have told them "Don't kid yourselves, the Feds don't just give up and go away. Sooner or later, they'll arrest him." That's when we started to see some odd things happening. JB began shifting his assets around though the maze of LLCs. There were hastily-arranged, low-key weddings that TLC didn't seem to be involved with. This may have caused the younger kids to suspect something weird was going on and to start whispering and speculating among themselves, but I don't think they knew the truth until Josh was taken into custody last week.

At some point, Anna was let in on the secret, either because JB decided it was time to tell her or, more likely, because Josh blurted it out to her in a weak moment. Anna, who is not the sharpest tool in the drawer, decided that the best way for her to "help" was to launch an aggressive social media campaign portraying her, Josh and the kids as the perfect young Fundie family and to stick to her baby-every-other-year schedule.

As to what happens now, I think Story and Gelfand will eventually recommend that Josh plead guilty in exchange for a reduced sentence. The Duggars will resist, terrified at the prospect of Josh going to prison and knowing that a guilty plea will destroy their image and mean the end of the TV show . They will cling to the deluded hope that a trial would result in an acquittal, allowing them to claim "vindication" (and they have just enough loyal leghumpers left to encourage them in this belief). I think it will come down to JB wanting a guilty plea and Michelle insisting on going to trial (Josh won't actually get a vote). It'll be interesting to see who wins this one.

[Tuxcat]

4 minutes ago, Albanyguy said:

There were hastily-arranged, low-key weddings that TLC didn't seem to be involved with.

Are the hastily arranged, low key weddings because they wanted to marry off their sons before the Josh secret became known? Or because no one cares about those sons?

No one really has any interest in the younger duggar sons and so I can actually see why TLC might not be involved in those weddings.  Josh secrets or no Josh secrets. 

TLC would be interested in Jana's wedding but other than that, the "counting on" portion of things is now more focused on the already married baby booming machines. 

TLC gained audience from airing Josh's dirty secrets last time and there was wide acceptance of Anna still being on the show. Her tell -all interview translated to high ratings back then.

It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.

[Zella]

7 minutes ago, Albanyguy said:

ITA. Here's my take on this:

As soon as the Feds swooped down on them in November, 2019, Jim Bob probably had a moment of total panic, assuming that they were after HIM for financial crimes, but quickly discarded this in favor of "that stupid Josh has screwed up again". A quick glance at the warrant probably confirmed this. JB then confronted Josh who stonewalled for a while but, more frightened of Daddy than the Feds, finally blubbered out the whole story. 

Michelle would have known everything right away. Despite his swagger, JB is a deeply insecure, easily frightened man and I think, except for when she's being "joyfully available", Michelle has always been a "mommy" figure for him. When anything bad happens, he instinctively runs to her for comfort and reassurance. Paralyzed with terror at another threat to their little kingdom, they fell back on a "wait and see" approach. Josh was told to keep his mouth shut (which he was glad to do) and they deliberately kept the other kids in the dark, telling them that the raid on the car lot was all a big mistake and didn't amount to anything. The kids, trained from birth to believe everything JB told them, accepted this. The sole exception would have been Jeremy, who would have become more determined to keep distancing himself and Jinger from the rest of the clan. TLC would have been harder to deal with and JB must have done some serious ducking and weaving when the network questioned him about the raid. The network brass probably decided not to cut ties with the Duggars just yet, but to scale back the number of episodes in case the shit hit the fan.

As time went by and nothing happened, Josh and Michelle probably deluded themselves that it had all blown over. JB , slightly more realistic, was worried enough to consult Travis Story who was alarmed enough to bring Justin Gelfand into the picture. Gelfand would have told them "Don't kid yourselves, the Feds don't just give up and go away. Sooner or later, they'll arrest him." That's when we started to see some odd things happening. JB began shifting his assets around though the maze of LLCs. There were hastily-arranged, low-key weddings that TLC didn't seem to be involved with. This may have caused the younger kids to suspect something weird was going on and to start whispering and speculating among themselves, but I don't think they knew the truth until Josh was taken into custody last week.

At some point, Anna was let in on the secret, either because JB decided it was time to tell her or, more likely, because Josh blurted it out to her in a weak moment. Anna, who is not the sharpest tool in the drawer, decided that the best way for her to "help" was to launch an aggressive social media campaign portraying her, Josh and the kids as the perfect young Fundie family and to stick to her baby-every-other-year schedule.

As to what happens now, I think Story and Gelfand will eventually recommend that Josh plead guilty in exchange for a reduced sentence. The Duggars will resist, terrified at the prospect of Josh going to prison and knowing that a guilty plea will destroy their image and mean the end of the TV show . They will cling to the deluded hope that a trial would result in an acquittal, allowing them to claim "vindication" (and they have just enough loyal leghumpers left to encourage them in this belief). I think it will come down to JB wanting a guilty plea and Michelle insisting on going to trial (Josh won't actually get a vote). It'll be interesting to see who wins this one.

Overall, I think this is a pretty good guess, but I actually think Jim Bob is the one who wants them to go to trial. It was interesting to me to read the AMA from the person who was verified as a childhood friend of Josh. He said when Josh was in trouble the first time--which said poster thought was because of porn and didn't realize was because Josh had molested his sisters--that Jim Bob was far more enthusiastic seeming in his support for Josh than Michelle, who did seem vaguely more troubled by the ordeal. Ultimately, I think Josh is one of Michelle's favorites, so it wouldn't surprise me if both she and Jim Bob want him to go to trial, with many of the other siblings hoping for a plea deal, just so they can move on. 

It could definitely turn into a battle royale between Josh's parents and Josh's lawyers on who is advising him to do what, and I do agree it will be interesting to see who ends up winning. 

[Tikichick]

3 minutes ago, Zella said:

I don't know, but I just really object to the characterization of Josh as completely powerless. He's shown he doesn't have a problem with subverting the family rules. I think if he really wanted to leave, he probably would have been more empowered to do so than Anna or his sisters. 

Don't mistake my opinion on his inability to recognize he could choose to leave as any form of excuse for his behavior.   There is no excuse for his actions.   I do however believe his parents bear culpability for not properly addressing the original matters, making sure everything for their children was addressed by professional experts and possibly mitigating some of Josh's future behavior.  None of that excuses Josh's behavior, merely outlines why I think JB & M deserve scorn and to never be recognized as any kind of parenting example ever again.

Yes, as a male he absolutely had more agency than Anna or his sisters.   All I question is if he was capable of recognizing that agency extended to flat out walking out the door?   At one point he was well on his way to establishing an independent life away from JB.   He blew it up.  He knows all of those doors are closed to him after that.   JB didn't really have any desire to, nor probably many strings he could pull to attempt to get Josh established  independently anywhere again.   If JB couldn't pull strings to get him a spot anywhere else, did Josh ever think he had a hope of snagging something, anything, all by himself?    Even if Josh could conceive walking out was an answer, there's no way he could envision any means of survival if he tried it. 

[Churchhoney]

58 minutes ago, Chai said:

Thank you for posting that link. I was wondering if everyone who downloads and views  cp  is a federal offense or if there are other circumstances that make it so. 

I don't know what else might be involved.

But if you download something, you're using the internet and that immediately involves you with something that's interstate/multistate --  i.e., the internet itself. (even if your friend down the street emailed it to you ....)

So that's all it takes to make a crime federal if the feds want to make the crime federal, 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Churchhoney

[Zella]

6 minutes ago, Tikichick said:

Don't mistake my opinion on his inability to recognize he could choose to leave as any form of excuse for his behavior.   There is no excuse for his actions.   I do however believe his parents bear culpability for not properly addressing the original matters, making sure everything for their children was addressed by professional experts and possibly mitigating some of Josh's future behavior.  None of that excuses Josh's behavior, merely outlines why I think JB & M deserve scorn and to never be recognized as any kind of parenting example ever again.

Yes, as a male he absolutely had more agency than Anna or his sisters.   All I question is if he was capable of recognizing that agency extended to flat out walking out the door?   At one point he was well on his way to establishing an independent life away from JB.   He blew it up.  He knows all of those doors are closed to him after that.   JB didn't really have any desire to, nor probably many strings he could pull to attempt to get Josh established  independently anywhere again.   If JB couldn't pull strings to get him a spot anywhere else, did Josh ever think he had a hope of snagging something, anything, all by himself?    Even if Josh could conceive walking out was an answer, there's no way he could envision any means of survival if he tried it. 

Ultimately, I think it's more a matter of Josh being spoiled and lazy than anything. He was used to his parents catering to him and enabling him, and I think he lacked the work ethic to do anything they arranged, so it doesn't surprise me he lacked the initiative to try anything else, either, on his own.

I think Josh has looked miserable in family pictures for years now--probably because he hates his life--but it doesn't seem like he took any concrete steps on his own to improve his lot in life. I think he's a fairly passive person and would rather be miserable than getting off his ass to ensure his own happiness. 

I actually think if Josh had left, he may have actually been the one to try to engineer a tell-all, which would have been a means of generating some money. I think he resents his family and feels no loyalty to him, so I don't think he'd actually have any qualms about throwing them under the bus. That's something that seems to restrain the others. But it would require him to work, so that wasn't happening. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Zella

[humbleopinion]

Has TLC  and Discovery+ made any comments that ALL Duggar content has been removed from ALL their platforms with an abundance of caution of being linked to a alleged sex felon.

Is this finally the low bar for the Duggs to be pushed off the TLC teat$ and away from the Discovery+ money slop trough?

[Jeeves]

1 minute ago, humbleopinion said:

Has TLC  and Discovery+ made any comments that ALL Duggar content has been removed from ALL their platforms with an abundance of caution of being linked to a alleged sex felon.

Is this finally the low bar for the Duggs to be pushed off the TLC teat$ and away from the Discovery+ money slop trough?

Nope. It's quoted over on the Duggars in the Media and TLC topic: TLC released a statement saying oh that's awful but that dude hasn't been on our show since 2015. Sort of "it's nothing to do with us, nothing to see here, move right along." 

[Zella]

2 minutes ago, humbleopinion said:

Has TLC  and Discovery+ made any comments that ALL Duggar content has been removed from ALL their platforms with an abundance of caution of being linked to a alleged sex felon.

Is this finally the low bar for the Duggs to be pushed off the TLC teat$ and away from the Discovery+ money slop trough?

They released a statement distancing themselves from Josh, but it seems like they are content to keep counting on whatever money they get out of the Duggars. 

[Whyyouneedaname]

I don't know a lot about computers and the claim that it may have been downloaded accidentally and/or how that may play into his defense. My question is if they are doing a forensic analysis of the files on the computer will it show if the CP was accessed more than once, like he can't say it was by accident then accessed it again and again. Or can that even be done? 

[Oldernowiser]

Josh was raised as an entitled monster and that monster is lurching back toward the village that created him, yet again. It’s just too bad that so many, many innocents are being hurt in the process.

24 minutes ago, Albanyguy said:

The Duggars will resist, terrified at the prospect of Josh going to prison and knowing that a guilty plea will destroy their image and mean the end of the TV show .

@Albanyguy, I think your scenario is probably really accurate. The only part the cynic in me wonders about is whether TLC will have the principles to drop the Duggars if Josh pleas or even if he’s convicted. Their public statement was clearly, “Josh who? Don’t know that guy” level distancing, so I can see them clinging to that posture and continuing the show in some format, regardless, because $$$.

27 minutes ago, Albanyguy said:

The kids, trained from birth to believe everything JB told them, accepted this. The sole exception would have been Jeremy, who would have become more determined to keep distancing himself and Jinger from the rest of the clan.

You give Jeremy more credit for intelligence than I do. My candidate for “sole exception” is Derrick. It would explain his rages getting more intense during this time period and it would explain why Jill has finally gotten therapy support to be liberated from her upbringing. It’s pretty damned rich that J’chelle would tell Jill she’s only welcome in the compound by invitation when Josh, 3-time big sick loser, is living there with his brood. I really don’t blame Derrick for being royally pissed by their hypocrisy and favoritism, especially as Jill was one of Josh’s victims.

[Zella]

3 minutes ago, Whyyouneedaname said:

I don't know a lot about computers and the claim that it may have been downloaded accidentally and/or how that may play into his defense. My question is if they are doing a forensic analysis of the files on the computer will it show if the CP was accessed more than once, like he can't say it was by accident then accessed it again and again. Or can that even be done? 

The charging documents actually give two separate dates of access: on or about May 14, 2019 and on or about May 16, 2019. 

So, the whole "it was an accident!" defense, if they want to go that way, is going to look pretty thin for the second access. 

[mynextmistake]

6 hours ago, GeeGolly said:

This thread has been moving fast. Has anyone been able to answer if its typical to allow a person suspected of Josh's alleged crimes, to continue to be around dozens of young children for a year and a half? And to live with 6 children under 12? This part boggles my mind. I understand needing to get a strong case against him, but how do they weigh the risks?

Do any of the parents of kids Josh has been around during this time have a case against the Feds for knowingly allowing it?

Prosecutors and law enforcement have qualified immunity, which means you can’t sue them for most discretionary decisions. I’m sure they waited as long as they did to build their case as strongly as possible. Tipping off Josh or anyone in the family could have led to potential abscondment, destruction of evidence, or any number of other problems. And as bad as having Josh be around kids for a year during the pendency of the case could have been, it would be worse if he were guilty and acquitted and allowed to be around kids with no conditions for the rest of his adult life. 

[Albanyguy]

18 minutes ago, Zella said:

Overall, I think this is a pretty good guess, but I actually think Jim Bob is the one who wants them to go to trial. It was interesting to me to read the AMA from the person who was verified as a childhood friend of Josh. He said when Josh was in trouble the first time--which said poster thought was because of porn and didn't realize was because Josh had molested his sisters--that Jim Bob was far more enthusiastic seeming in his support for Josh than Michelle, who did seem vaguely more troubled by the ordeal. Ultimately, I think Josh is one of Michelle's favorites, so it wouldn't surprise me if both she and Jim Bob want him to go to trial, with many of the other siblings hoping for a plea deal, just so they can move on. 

It could definitely turn into a battle royale between Josh's parents and Josh's lawyers on who is advising him to do what, and I do agree it will be interesting to see who ends up winning. 

You may well be right about this, Zella. I was thinking that Jim Bob would be slightly more realistic about the chances of Josh being acquitted at trial and possibly more worried about spending a small fortune on Josh's defense only to have him convicted anyway. Michelle must be hysterical at the thought of her beloved Josh going to prison. I think it will come down to a battle royale between the Duggar parents and the lawyers. The irony is that Josh, the one who's actually at the center of it all, will be the one whose voice will count the least.

[Tikichick]

8 minutes ago, Zella said:

Overall, I think this is a pretty good guess, but I actually think Jim Bob is the one who wants them to go to trial. It was interesting to me to read the AMA from the person who was verified as a childhood friend of Josh. He said when Josh was in trouble the first time--which said poster thought was because of porn and didn't realize was because Josh had molested his sisters--that Jim Bob was far more enthusiastic seeming in his support for Josh than Michelle, who did seem vaguely more troubled by the ordeal. Ultimately, I think Josh is one of Michelle's favorites, so it wouldn't surprise me if both she and Jim Bob want him to go to trial, with many of the other siblings hoping for a plea deal, just so they can move on. 

It could definitely turn into a battle royale between Josh's parents and Josh's lawyers on who is advising him to do what, and I do agree it will be interesting to see who ends up winning. 

A man who since the raid has been filmed for television calling out to groups including his adult, married children who are parents themselves to "come on guys, let's gather up" so he can instruct and pontificate to them the same way he did when they were 6, 9, 15 year olds isn't giving up the idea of controlling the narrative of his image without a fight.   IMO JB is going to push for fighting in court until the outstate attorney who actually knows which way the wind is blowing knocks JB flat on his ass with understanding how there is no extricating Josh from this to salvage the Duggar brand, and that in fact the Duggar brand is going to have to swallow some healthy servings of humble pie, denounce Josh's actions and affirm the rightfulness of his conviction and punishment -- and still have to accept the new normal of the diminished status of the Duggar brand. 

2 minutes ago, Zella said:

Ultimately, I think it's more a matter of Josh being spoiled and lazy than anything. He was used to his parents catering to him and enabling him, and I think he lacked the work ethic to do anything they arranged, so it doesn't surprise me he lacked the initiative to try anything else, either, on his own.

I think Josh has looked miserable in family pictures for years now--probably because he hates his life--but it doesn't seem like he took any concrete steps on his own to improve his lot in life. I think he's a fairly passive person and would rather be miserable than getting off his ass to ensure his own happiness. 

I actually think if Josh had left, he may have actually been the one to try to engineer a tell-all, which would have been a means of generating some money. I think he resents his family and feels no loyalty to him, so I don't think he'd actually have any qualms about throwing them under the bus. But it would require him to work, so that wasn't happening. 

Absolutely Josh is spoiled and lazy.   He even managed to overachieve his upbringing in those areas.  But that same upbringing by design is a barrier to any of the Duggars being able to support themselves if they ever recognized the concept they could break away in the first place.

If they make it over the hurdle of forming the thought that they need to get away and make their own way they then have to come up with a way to sustain themselves.   If they get over those hurdles by starting off with becoming very familiar with something like "would you like fries with that" or something on that level it's very likely they cannot manage because it's entirely likely they butt their heads against the Duggar Time habit and ultimately repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot with ever more children added to the mix.   Breaking patterns we've lived with as norms is hard.   That many major dysfunctional patterns is all but impossible for most people to overcome, especially without a support network -- which they're unlikely to have because of the insular design of the cult.

[Albanyguy]

13 minutes ago, Oldernowiser said:

You give Jeremy more credit for intelligence than I do.

Oh, I don't think Jeremy is very intelligent at all, but he is at least less sheltered and slightly more worldly than the Duggar kids and he has never seemed to be very impressed by Jim Bob. I think he's at least smart enough to recognize the raid on the car lot as a sign of real trouble brewing, no matter what JB said. And you're absolutely right about Derek and Jill. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Albanyguy

[Zella]

5 minutes ago, Albanyguy said:

You may well be right about this, Zella. I was thinking that Jim Bob would be slightly more realistic about the chances of Josh being acquitted at trial and possibly more worried about spending a small fortune on Josh's defense only to have him convicted anyway. Michelle must be hysterical at the thought of her beloved Josh going to prison. I think it will come down to a battle royale between the Duggar parents and the lawyers. The irony is that Josh, the one who's actually at the center of it all, will be the one whose voice will count the least.

Yeah it seems like money is no object right now--which is one of many things that would really piss me off if I was one of the other Duggar kids--but I do wonder if ol' Jim Bob's wallet will start to tighten as this drags out.

I could also see him wanting to fight it--with Josh as proxy--as some sort of defense of himself and his family's lifestyle/beliefs. Sort of like him blowing all that money on signs for his own failed run for office while his kids live in a beer can. 

[MamaMax]

I wonder if any of the other Duggar wives and daughters w young kids are putting pressure on JB and Michelle to leave Josh out to dry. I think they should all let him go to prison without comment, as it will keep him away from the kids, then when he gets out, shun him.  If his parents want to see him, they can go to him. Let him live alone in some sad apartment somewhere as a registered sex offender. Hopefully the intervening years will give Anna the time and space to wake up from her cult indoctrination. 

[JoanArc]

1 minute ago, Zella said:

Yeah it seems like money is no object right now--which is one of many things that would really piss me off if I was one of the other Duggar kids--but I do wonder if ol' Jim Bob's wallet will start to tighten as this drags out.

I could also see him wanting to fight it--with Josh as proxy--as some sort of defense of himself and his family's lifestyle/beliefs. Sort of like him blowing all that money on signs for his own failed run for office while his kids live in a beer can. 

Yeah, those kids will go back to one small plate of rice with honey a day before JB admits his lifestyle/beliefs are lacking.

I'd hide my valuables from Jessa now!

[dariafan]

Josh is lazy and entitled. He probably thought all he had to do was wait out and he would inherit the keys to the kingdom ( so to speak). He had never shown an interest in being anything other than the family prince   And I doubt he told Anna the truth.  He probably fed her some flimsy excuse that she bought 

[Tuxcat]

22 minutes ago, Oldernowiser said:

Josh was raised as an entitled monster and that monster is lurching back toward the village that created him, yet again. It’s just too bad that so many, many innocents are being hurt in the process.

@Albanyguy, I think your scenario is probably really accurate. The only part the cynic in me wonders about is whether TLC will have the principles to drop the Duggars if Josh pleas or even if he’s convicted. Their public statement was clearly, “Josh who? Don’t know that guy” level distancing, so I can see them clinging to that posture and continuing the show in some format, regardless, because $$$.

You give Jeremy more credit for intelligence than I do. My candidate for “sole exception” is Derrick. It would explain his rages getting more intense during this time period and it would explain why Jill has finally gotten therapy support to be liberated from her upbringing. It’s pretty damned rich that J’chelle would tell Jill she’s only welcome in the compound by invitation when Josh, 3-time big sick loser, is living there with his brood. I really don’t blame Derrick for being royally pissed by their hypocrisy and favoritism, especially as Jill was one of Josh’s victims.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't recall Derrick saying a word about Josh. Derrick happily continued the gravy train until he didn't get what he thought he should get. He himself harassed another TLC teenager and then got forced out of the show. Then he spun his own redemption story line as the anti-duggar - which has worked. A successful youtube channel, 2 million followers aint too shabby. Capitalizing off of their own kids and family struggles. Great Christian goals.

I'm not supporting JB, Michelle, Josh or any of them. And yes I would be irritated to see all that time and effort and funds going toward Josh - but let's be honest - none of these characters are all that admirable.

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Tuxcat

[Oldernowiser]

2 minutes ago, Zella said:

I could also see him wanting to fight it--with Josh as proxy--as some sort of defense of himself and his family's lifestyle/beliefs.

It’s not even that terrible a gamble. Right now the “government witch hunt of the Christians” narrative is pretty potent and all Josh would need is one juror to go that way. And it’s sad, but true, that since the last one of Josh’s atrocities our cultural standard for moral or ethical behavior among public figures has been lowered a whole lot farther. 

JB may see this as a hill to climb on if he still has political ambitions, which wouldn’t surprise me. He does crave power. 

Of course, it would probably help if Josh weren’t such an odious SOB.

[humbleopinion]

Hopefully Jessa or Jinge or Austin is already in negotiations with Brit tabloids to spill the beans as the Burn the Bridge As We Drive Away From the Compound option...need to act faster than JimBlob

 Maybe that's why the Smug hired ex cons...convenient scapegoats and fall guys

 I haven't watched since JohnDavid/Abby wedding...the Dugg men all got so fat!

Miss all of your clever snarks, especially the long timers of Dugg idiocy..this was just the other shoe falling for Smug...

They must be drinking 2% beer to get such guts for such young men...

The acorns didn't fall far from the fat tree....

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by humbleopinion

[Future Cat Lady]

8 minutes ago, MamaMax said:

I wonder if any of the other Duggar wives and daughters w young kids are putting pressure on JB and Michelle to leave Josh out to dry. I think they should all let him go to prison without comment, as it will keep him away from the kids, then when he gets out, shun him.  If his parents want to see him, they can go to him. Let him live alone in some sad apartment somewhere as a registered sex offender. Hopefully the intervening years will give Anna the time and space to wake up from her cult indoctrination. 

I don't think the women will ever question the parent's authority. It's against what they were taught all their lives.

[Zella]

2 minutes ago, Oldernowiser said:

It’s not even that terrible a gamble. Right now the “government witch hunt of the Christians” narrative is pretty potent and all Josh would need is one juror to go that way. And it’s sad, but true, that since the last one of Josh’s atrocities our cultural standard for moral or ethical behavior among public figures has been lowered a whole lot farther. 

JB may see this as a hill to climb on if he still has political ambitions, which wouldn’t surprise me. He does crave power. 

Of course, it would probably help if Josh weren’t such an odious SOB.

Yeah I definitely think they think this is an issue of persecution. I also think they are going to be in for a very rude awakening if/when this goes to court and more information is released on what Josh downloaded. 

[Gigi43]

I think TLC is in a bit of a bind. They still run the risk of bad PR if they cancel Counting On because you're punishing three of Josh's victims, since Jill's gone. We don't knoiw if the sisters will stand by him. Jinger's statement was pretty strong worded for a Duggar and unlike the family statement did not ask for prayers for Josh/the family. The brothers weren't Josh's victims but, the question of 'should you be fired for what your brother did', I would have to say is no as long as you weren't involved. Josh hasn't been convicted yet so that makes it murkier.

 

If the kids band together and tell TLC they want to remain and find a way to cut JB and M out and it becomes about their lives without them, that could actually work in everyone's favor, including the ratings. 

 

The Cosby Show is on demand - I was never into it, more of a Married With Children gal- on my cable honestly, taking it off hurts everyone who gets a royalty who isn't Cobsy more than it hurts Cosby since he's the richest. But if TLC wants to remove anything with Josh's face, if they have 19kids stuff on Discovery Plus I would understand that but, I don't know, the Counting On Wedding/Baby specials  he wasn't on, I wouldn't penalize the others. The market can decide if the ratings absolutely crash and burn, pull the show. It doesn't seem like it's on much anyway.

[Tikichick]

11 minutes ago, Zella said:

Yeah it seems like money is no object right now--which is one of many things that would really piss me off if I was one of the other Duggar kids--but I do wonder if ol' Jim Bob's wallet will start to tighten as this drags out.

I could also see him wanting to fight it--with Josh as proxy--as some sort of defense of himself and his family's lifestyle/beliefs. Sort of like him blowing all that money on signs for his own failed run for office while his kids live in a beer can. 

I don't know about anyone else, but purely based on observed personality traits I would absolutely tune in to watch 100% unfiltered and candid fly on the wall views of how this plays out behind closed doors with Austin and Joy, 

[Future Cat Lady]

9 minutes ago, dariafan said:

Josh is lazy and entitled. He probably thought all he had to do was wait out and he would inherit the keys to the kingdom ( so to speak). He had never shown an interest in being anything other than the family prince   And I doubt he told Anna the truth.  He probably fed her some flimsy excuse that she bought 

He would be really delusional to think he would be the one to inherit everything. JB put Anna's name on things instead of his. It's pretty obvious that he doesn't trust him.

[JoanArc]

Quote

Hopefully Jessa or Jinge or Austin is already in negotiations with Brit tabloids to spill the beans as the Burn the Bridge As We Drive Away From the Compound option...need to act faster than JimBlob

Jessa is taping a 4 hour youtube video about how her parents are the GREATEST IN THE UNIVERSE for having electricity and running water for their children. Austin, nah, wont say anything if only for Joy's sake, but may just disappear from family events. Jingle? Jer is walking down Santa Monica boulevard dressed like Vivian from pretty woman trying to sell ANYTHING to ANYONE.

Derwood will spend the next 50 years ruminating over how her was done wrong. It'll be a festivus airing of grievances - forever!

[Zella]

3 minutes ago, Future Cat Lady said:

He would be really delusional to think he would be the one to inherit everything. JB put Anna's name on things instead of his. It's pretty obvious that he doesn't trust him.

I think that was a way to prevent Josh from having assets that could be seized more than anything else. 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Zella

[Ohiopirate02]

1 minute ago, Future Cat Lady said:

He would be really delusional to think he would be the one to inherit everything. JB put Anna's name on things instead of his. It's pretty obvious that he doesn't trust him.

Didn't they start to put all of the assets into Anna's name back when Josh was getting sued for using that guy's picture on his Ashley Madison profile?  It wasn't a trust issue, but an issue of making sure Josh appeared broke.  

[dariafan]

The feds need an airtight case and be prepared for theatrics and other tricks 

[Future Cat Lady]

Just now, Zella said:

I think that was a way to prevent Josh from having assets that could be seized more than anything else. 

I know that. But to me, it means that JB knew that Josh would probably get sued again. Who wants to leave their fortune to such a risky person?