S41.E11: Do or Die

[millennium]

Was anyone else subjected to an 8-10 minute commercial break following the fadeout of Jeff setting up the Do or Die?  I must have had to sit through 15 ads and network promos.  

[ProfCrash]

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Erika's main hope for a FTC win IMO would be something like her, Heather and Liana. As things stand, winning will be difficult for her if any combination of Xander, Ricard, Deshawn or Danny are sitting next to her, and she is likely to be shut out. So I could see it being a true dilemma for her voting out one of the few people she could beat and leaving in someone who is a huge threat.  Ricard has won two individual immunities and a reward challenge. He came darn close to winning this week as well. So you can't count on him being vulnerable in future weeks. Especially with the emphasis on twisty-twisty-twists this season.

Even if Liana knew the odds on DoD, I think she would have still been better served in hoping that enough people would rally to want Ricard out than taking a 66 percent chance of getting booted. I don't know the odds on flipping any one of Xander, Heather or Erika to get rid of Ricard. I do wish that TPTB showed more of whatever efforts were made on those fronts.

Similarly, taking the SITD gives a 17 percent chance of safety. Are the odds of flipping any one of Xander, Heather or Erika better than 17 percent? I would guess so, or at least, would not fault someone who thought so. 

I think that Erika has a strong case against pretty much any of the remaining contestants. Her strongest competition is Ricard.

Any AA finalist is getting the other AA votes. I have difficulty seeing Liana, Shan, or DeShawn voting for anyone else if Danny is in the final. Danny might vote for someone else based on game play if DeShawn is in the final but Danny and DeShawn have been allied since day 1 so I doubt that anyone else will have a strong enough game to get Danny's vote over DeShawn. This is exactly why there is a good reason to vote off Danny and DeShawn.

Assuming that the final three ends up being some combo of Erika, Xander, Ricard, and Heather.

We have not seen Heather do anything that is particularly strategic or lead any type of decision. Heather has been working with Erika but the decisions that the rest of the folks have followed along with have all been shown to come from Erika and not Heather.

Xander's biggest move to date, foiling Liana's advantage, was not a pure Xander move. Xander had help from Evvie and Tiffany, so he cannot claim that as a solo move. If anything, Evvie and Tiffany could discount that move because Xander almost sunk it by telling Danny about Liana's advantage. That gave Liana the chance to not play it at that tribal because she knew Xander was prepared for her to steal his idol. After that tribal, Xander stopped talking to Tiffany and Evvie. He had his reasons but he did a crap job of conveying that and dropping Tiffany and Evvie only alienated them. So no, he doesn't get their vote. Xander has been floating since the merge happened. It has gotten to the point that people don't care that he has an idol because  they are not worried about Xander. That is how much of a threat they see him in the final tribal. He has an idol and no one cares. Erika was behind the Shan vote off and the swing vote on the Liana vote off. Erika/Ricard was behind the Nasser vote off. 

Ricard can sell his game on surviving from a tribe decimated to 2 to the final tribal, that is huge. He can point to working with Shan and how that helped him stay safe. And then he can point to the decision to take out Nasser and Shan, both with idols in their pockets. And his role in taking out the dominant alliance of Shan, Liana, DeShawn, and Danny.

Erika's story is different in Ricard's only in the sense that she was at the bottom of her original tribes alliance. She navigated that situation and played a huge role in taking out Nasser, Shan, and Liana. She can point to the no brainer decision of reversing time.

I am guessing that Erika and Ricard are both aware that they need to take out Danny, DeShawn and either Erika/Ricard. If they can do that, Erika or Ricard should be the winner of this game.

 

[JudyObscure]

1 hour ago, blackwing said:

It's really rich that we have Jeffy who is a late middle-aged white man, on the cusp of being considered elderly, and he thinks that he is an expert on society and feelings and discrimination. 

What does his age have to do with anything?  Maybe some of those people, "on the cusp of being elderly," have had more experience with society , feelings and discrimination than someone Liana's age who sort of sounded like she had just discovered racism and was quoting a lot of other (gasp!) older people.

[Chicago Redshirt]

On 12/2/2021 at 1:19 PM, ProfCrash said:

I think that Erika has a strong case against pretty much any of the remaining contestants. Her strongest competition is Ricard.

Any AA finalist is getting the other AA votes. I have difficulty seeing Liana, Shan, or DeShawn voting for anyone else if Danny is in the final. Danny might vote for someone else based on game play if DeShawn is in the final but Danny and DeShawn have been allied since day 1 so I doubt that anyone else will have a strong enough game to get Danny's vote over DeShawn. This is exactly why there is a good reason to vote off Danny and DeShawn.

Assuming that the final three ends up being some combo of Erika, Xander, Ricard, and Heather.

We have not seen Heather do anything that is particularly strategic or lead any type of decision. Heather has been working with Erika but the decisions that the rest of the folks have followed along with have all been shown to come from Erika and not Heather.

Xander's biggest move to date, foiling Liana's advantage, was not a pure Xander move. Xander had help from Evvie and Tiffany, so he cannot claim that as a solo move. If anything, Evvie and Tiffany could discount that move because Xander almost sunk it by telling Danny about Liana's advantage. That gave Liana the chance to not play it at that tribal because she knew Xander was prepared for her to steal his idol. After that tribal, Xander stopped talking to Tiffany and Evvie. He had his reasons but he did a crap job of conveying that and dropping Tiffany and Evvie only alienated them. So no, he doesn't get their vote. Xander has been floating since the merge happened. It has gotten to the point that people don't care that he has an idol because  they are not worried about Xander. That is how much of a threat they see him in the final tribal. He has an idol and no one cares. Erika was behind the Shan vote off and the swing vote on the Liana vote off. Erika/Ricard was behind the Nasser vote off. 

Ricard can sell his game on surviving from a tribe decimated to 2 to the final tribal, that is huge. He can point to working with Shan and how that helped him stay safe. And then he can point to the decision to take out Nasser and Shan, both with idols in their pockets. And his role in taking out the dominant alliance of Shan, Liana, DeShawn, and Danny.

Erika's story is different in Ricard's only in the sense that she was at the bottom of her original tribes alliance. She navigated that situation and played a huge role in taking out Nasser, Shan, and Liana. She can point to the no brainer decision of reversing time.

I am guessing that Erika and Ricard are both aware that they need to take out Danny, DeShawn and either Erika/Ricard. If they can do that, Erika or Ricard should be the winner of this game.

 

If Liana had somehow made it to the end, I would tend to think that she would not get any votes beyond the AAA, and she's not even 100 percent guaranteed those.

Easily, Danny or Deshawn getting to the end means Erika loses. They would get at a minimum the 3 other AAA votes, plus probably some combination of Naseer, Evvie, Tiffany, and one or two of the people who are still in the game. There is no natural constituency for Erika if Danny/Deshawn are in. (I suppose in a Danny/Deshawn/Erika FTC, maybe the votes get split in a weird way, but I still think she loses.)

I don't see Erika beating Xander or Ricard, for reasons spelled out above. I think Xander has a pretty good story to tell: I came from an underdog tribe, lost my natural allies, but I was able to ride my individual immunity wins and my hidden idol to this FTC; I built good relationships with everyone not named Liana, and I managed to flip myself from being on the bottom to the top. 

Erika's story thus far is: I was part of a tribe that never faced tribal council, got an individual immunity win, built no strong relationships beyond with (maybe) Heather.

I think both can take about as much credit for most of the boots as each other.

Really, the only threesome where she potentially gets a majority of votes is Erika/Heather/Liana.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Chicago Redshirt

[30 Helens]

5 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

In any event, maybe I'm giving the show too much credit, but rigging that part of the game seems like a stretch to me. 

You’re probably right, it’s unlikely that the show would blatantly rig the outcome of a particular challenge. But all these twists and advantages reek of producer manipulation, and that’s just not a good look for the show. Before this year, thoughts of possible rigging would never have even entered my mind. But everything seems so very desperate now that it’s starting to feel like anything is possible.

[KeithJ]

3 hours ago, blackwing said:

I don't agree that if the 4 black players go out in a row means that it's a bad look for the other contestants and the show.  The 4 players made it very clear that they were an alliance, to the exclusion of other minority players like Erika, Naseer and Ricard.  They made their bed, they lost, and if the consequences are that they all get voted out, then oh well

They brought it upon themselves by voting out of one of their own long before they needed to.

[momlyd]

30 minutes ago, ProfCrash said:

Xander has been floating since the merge happened. It has gotten to the point that people don't care that he has an idol because  they are not worried about Xander.

He was bragging on himself for being in control of "his" alliance in his TH, which for me usually indicates the player is delusional. I think you are spot on. 

[blackwing]

21 minutes ago, JudyObscure said:

What does his age have to do with anything?  Maybe some of those people, "on the cusp of being elderly," have had more experience with society , feelings and discrimination than someone Liana's age who sort of sounded like she had just discovered racism and was quoting a lot of other (gasp!) older people.

I agree that some older people have more experience with society and can talk about it.  But Jeffy isn't one of them.

He still acts like he's 35 years old and in touch with the current state of society.  He acts like Survivor is a "microcosm of society" and that he knows everything about it.  The fact that he thinks every new twist on Survivor is this fantastic innovation, the fact that he calls every new season of Survivor "the greatest season ever", the fact that he thinks that fans love all of these twists.  I particularly hate his "I've got a secret" behind-the-scenes talking directly to viewers, as if he is a best friend who is willing to share the secrets with us because he is such a great guy.

Jeff seems particularly desperate for attention this year, with his "I am growing out my hair and I stopped dyeing it because I am JUST LIKE YOU" hair and his lack of makeup/hair attention.  He is completely out of touch with what viewers want to see on Survivor, and yes, I do think his age has something to do with it.  He's been hosting the show for over 20 years and he is long past his expiration date.  I stand by my assertion that as an older white male that he has absolutely no business trying to engage contestants in a discussion on the status of race relations on Survivor (and his mind, the world, since his show is a microcosm of society).  He is a 60 year old man who is desperately trying to stay relevant, and frankly, I find it kind of embarrassing.

Most people don't watch Survivor and think "this is a social experiment and will help me to understand society in the real world".  People want to see contestants competing.  Last night when they went to an immunity challenge at 10 minutes past the hour, I was wondering how they were going to fill the time, and I actually had thought that we were going to get a boot at half past followed immediately by another immunity challenge and an instant second boot.  Instead we had to be subjected to Jeffy moderating a discussion about race relations.  I think race relations is an important topic, but I don't really care to see it being discussed on a show like Survivor by someone who isn't really qualified at all to discuss it.

[LizBug]

2 hours ago, blackwing said:

It's really rich that we have Jeffy who is a late middle-aged white man, on the cusp of being considered elderly, and he thinks that he is an expert on society and feelings and discrimination.  He is a privileged rich white male, and he needs to stop acting like he's "just like everyone else". 

IMO, Jeff still misses his ill-fated talk show.  Maybe he's auditioning for some "powers that be" so he can have another chance at that.

[himela]

I don't want  to sound disrespectful but, after 3 months of The Cookout I'm sick to death to listen about Black people needing to stay together IN A STUPID GAME to make other Black people happy. The episode is only 42 minutes and 1/3 of it is wasted on challenges. At least let us have some strategy the rest of the time. If I want a social talk show I have many to choose from. Of course podcasters will never say openly how bored they are to hear this kind of conversations but I bet Taran specifically would very much prefer strategy talk.

I knew Liana would get voted out because now it makes sense when they showed her cry on the beach on episode 3 or something after she voted out Voce and not Xander. Nothing is shown for no reason.

[TVbitch]

26 minutes ago, blackwing said:

Jeff seems particularly desperate for attention this year, with his "I am growing out my hair and I stopped dyeing it because I am JUST LIKE YOU" hair and his lack of makeup/hair attention. 

Jeff is having a bad hair competition with Aaron Rodgers. 

[bankerchick]

26 minutes ago, blackwing said:

I think race relations is an important topic, but I don't really care to see it being discussed on a show like Survivor by someone who isn't really qualified at all to discuss it.

I don't care to see it discussed on Survivor by anyone, qualified or not.  It's not why I watch.  Between not airing for over a year during which time some people have probably moved on from the show, too many stupid twists and advantages to keep track of, and now the Very Special episode about racism, I have no doubt that this year's reduced viewer numbers are going to look pretty good compared to next year's.

[himela]

I'm also impressed with Xander who knows at 20 about the Monty Hall problem. I'm 40 and I still don't get it. :P

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

 

[iMonrey]

Another thing that annoyed me is this show essentially trying to school us in the black experience without copping to its own sordid past of tokenism. At some point during or after the casting process this season, surely someone noticed they were casting a lot more people of color than usual, and had to either ask why or were outright told why. But Jeff sure as hell isn't pointing that out, is he? 

Also, it irritated me to watch Xander kiss up to Probst and production by claiming he was "glad" that all these new twists and gimmicks made it essentially impossible to plan for anything. Granted, they haven't really hurt his game so far, but I can't believe anyone's happy to be going into tribal council needing to have four or five different back-up plans.

[Chicago Redshirt]

In defense of Jeff, Survivor is a microcosm of society, albeit a far more able-bodied, attractive, better-educated and not particularly representative microcosm of society than the whole.

And unlike some reality show hosts, Jeff doesn't seem to claim to know everything about the wider society or even Survivor. He admits blind spots, such as the issue with "Come on in, guys" possibly being gendered.

The discussion about the black community both in and out of Survivor wasn't really something Jeff was initiating or instigating. It was very much on the mind of Deshawn. either because he did feel guilty because he betrayed his race-based alliance and was actually conflicted about having done so, or he felt he needed to do damage control for when he returns to the real world and has to explain himself for the betrayal to his friends, or because of some other reason.

Once that all snowballed, it's not as though the show could have airlifted someone better to facilitate a discussion about race/Survivor/the real world.

[Kaiju Ballet]

46 minutes ago, iMonrey said:

Another thing that annoyed me is this show essentially trying to school us in the black experience without copping to its own sordid past of tokenism. At some point during or after the casting process this season, surely someone noticed they were casting a lot more people of color than usual, and had to either ask why or were outright told why. But Jeff sure as hell isn't pointing that out, is he? 

Also, it irritated me to watch Xander kiss up to Probst and production by claiming he was "glad" that all these new twists and gimmicks made it essentially impossible to plan for anything. Granted, they haven't really hurt his game so far, but I can't believe anyone's happy to be going into tribal council needing to have four or five different back-up plans.

Totally agree with your first paragraph. I kept imagining producers prompting Xander and Heather to "redo" their answers for the camera until they gave the exact, correct wording for the edit. And the two remaining non-white folks? "Got nothing for you, head back to camp" 

As for Xander, I think along with his being the direct beneficiary of two new game devices, he’s also setting up an argument for adaptability over preparation by studying the game. Might not be a winning one, but it's a viable one for him. We’ve seen now at least three professed students of the game go home – JD, Evvie (with their mock puzzle), Naseer (with his backyard Survivor training, daughter as coach!)—while Xander is quietly formulating a story for FTC.

Considering he’s a game or software developer, he’s done a great job of hiding his strategic chops – he’s survived being targeted over and over until he’s now not even seen as a threat. Still no clear rationale for Liana’s hate for him (even before that delicious moment at Tribal), although that’s led to one of the earlier episode titles of “Million Dollar Mistake”—which refers to her decision of keeping him in the game.

I also think Erica made the right choice – if she had turned her back on an alliance that actually valued her, that would lead her back to Deshawn and Danny—who had once tried to throw a challenge just to vote her out (although we don’t know if she’s aware of that at this point in the game) They already see her as the next person to get out after Ricard -- or so she may think.

This demonstrates her loyalty to Xander and Ricard, and keeps her in the majority alliance that has a much better chance of picking off Deshawn or Danny next tribal as an easy vote, or even take another shot at Ricard.   

 

[peachmangosteen]

2 hours ago, momlyd said:

He was bragging on himself for being in control of "his" alliance in his TH, which for me usually indicates the player is delusional. I think you are spot on. 

Good point. I was afraid the show was trying to make me believe Xander actually was in control but maybe you're right and they were showing how delusional he is.

[violet and green]

Delusional?!! Maybe they were just showing Xander as happy? He has removed the target off his own back and successfully won over some of the main players of the dominant alliance and worked with them to get one of their own key members out!

Xander has been the target of his own tribe since...whenever this thing started. He has survived their attempts and plans and hopes to get him out. If Shan's tribe hadn't eaten itself by voting out people who might have been better for challenges and it hadn't lost so very many tribe challenges, he'd have been long gone, because wimmin's alliance. Even after merge they were obsessed with getting him out, not keeping some semblance of numbers against the numbers-stong Luvu. The fact those silly women thought it was far more important to target Xander than Danny, an athlete with a strong alliance, is bizarre to me.

I think, if you've missed the wit and irony and intelligence of Xander's commentary and gameplay, and if you downplay his surviving on Survivor, then you are the delusional one!

[Cheyanne11]

3 hours ago, momlyd said:

He was bragging on himself for being in control of "his" alliance in his TH, which for me usually indicates the player is delusional. I think you are spot on. 

I didn't see it as him saying HE was in control, rather then alliance he was now part of was in control and that was a great feeling.

[eskimo]

6 hours ago, After7Only said:

I think they thought that the best way to show the diversity of Black culture is to make sure they were all still there to show that diversity.    

But they are not all still there.  JD is gone-at Shan's hand.  She lost her credibility about that when she brutally screwed over JD for his advantages.  The bigger picture only became important to her when it became advantageous to her.  

[peachmangosteen]

9 minutes ago, Cheyanne11 said:

I didn't see it as him saying HE was in control, rather then alliance he was now part of was in control and that was a great feeling.

He said something like "I pulled that off." It seems to me like Xander thinks he's a 'big deal' when he pretty clearly has always been just a vote that no one sees as a threat for some reason that we haven't really been privy to. I mean, as @fishcakes has been saying, he has had an idol that everyone knows about this whole time and they have barely tried to even flush it. That makes it clear to me he's pretty much a nonentity in the game.

[peachmangosteen]

14 minutes ago, violet and green said:

Xander has been the target of his own tribe since...whenever this thing started. He has survived their attempts and plans and hopes to get him out.

I think that's more because the other players don't see him as much of a threat rather than him actually doing something/making moves to keep himself safe tbh. I feel like we haven't see him do much of anything outside of find the idol, smugly but awesomely play Liana, and have the confidence to not play his idol. Which, he never even actually needed to play his idol, did he? Like every time the players just went another route anyway, which I'm thinking is because they just don't actually think Xander is much of a threat.

[violet and green]

*Which, he never even actually needed to play his idol, did he?*

Hindsight is a fine thing. Most people play their idols when they know their name has come up, which his has a lot. He knew he was being pressed to flush his idol on a number of occasions and he also knew the numbers well enough to hold steady.

[willco]

16 hours ago, Fake Jan Brady said:

By picking correctly he couldn't be voted out.

Yeah, you're right. I guess I forgot about that, which illustrates all these rule and twists just make everything harder to remember, to me anyway. (Either that or I'm getting senile :) Probably that ! )

[peachmangosteen]

1 minute ago, willco said:

Yeah, you're right. I guess I forgot about that, which illustrates all these rule and twists just make everything harder to remember, to me anyway. (Either that or I'm getting senile :) Probably that ! )

I forgot about it, too. But in my defense, when Jeff was explaining the Do or Die rules I wasn't paying any attention to him at all lol.

[Quilt Fairy]

2 hours ago, himela said:

I'm also impressed with Xander who knows at 20 about the Monty Hall problem. I'm 40 and I still don't get it. :P

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

 

Just wanted to pop in here to say I think the title of the episode should have been "The Monty Hall Problem". 

Isn't Xander in IT?  He might have learned of this in school. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Quilt Fairy

[Hera]

Ricard really had Deshawn's number in his talking head at the start of the episode. I was also surprised that Shan's leaving comments had such an impact on Deshawn. Obviously, Deshawn knows better than I do Shan's intention in calling him a snake, but if I hadn't seen him be so hurt by it, I would have expected him to take it as a badge of honor, in a "game recognize game" sort of way.

It's unclear to me how close Erika actually was to voting out Ricard. Her talking head before Tribal Council seemed like her explaining why she ultimately would be voting Liana. At any rate, she was right to vote the way she did: there's more room for her to maneuver in a Xander/Heather/Ricard alliance than with Danny/Deshawn/Liana. There's no reason for her to tie up the alliances for Final 6; I doubt there is anyone she would be willing to draw rocks for at this point (including Heather) and vice versa.

6 hours ago, Seelouis said:

The other thing I hated about the twist was Jeff making it seem like those who sat out did so because they felt safe and didn’t need immunity. In reality, the two who sat out recognized they were the most likely to be first out based on previous performance and since they probably didn’t have a good chance of winning immunity, why risk being subject to some stupid twist?

Exactly. It was totally rational for both Liana and Heather. In Liana's case, it gave her a chance to try to work an angle to avoid being the target of the vote, rather than leaving it up to chance whether she'd stay or go. In Heather's case, she would have potentially been putting herself at risk of being on the chopping block via the Do or Die twist when she probably wouldn't have been in danger otherwise.

16 hours ago, Andyourlittledog2 said:

Having the Do or Die be a simple game of chance with a two to one chance of losing was awful. I thought they'd have to do something real like make fire or do a puzzle or something.

Same. I already didn't like this twist—why would you penalize someone for choosing to participate in a challenge? There's already the shot in the dark, if people want to leave their fate up to blind chance. Furthermore, making fire seems like the obvious task, but even something like have to recite all the pre-jury boots in order would have been better than a Monty Hall game.

Final thought: I bet it pained Shan not to be able to interject at Tribal Council when Ricard and Deshawn were hashing over what happened that led to her being voted out.

[ZeeEnnui]

12 hours ago, Haleth said:

I was very moved by Liana's and DeShawn's comments at TC.  Then I began to wonder if it was all a manipulation to avoid being voted out.  I'd like to think everyone who spoke was being honest with their feelings.  I don't watch Big Brother so I have no idea what the cookout was about so for me it was enlightening to hear why the alliance of the Black players meant so much to them.  It even made me like Shan a little more.

Glad I'm not alone here. I think the conversation that is being had is really important, and needs happen. However, the cynical TV watcher in me wondered  if this was a calculated move by DeShawn to gain sympathy and do emergency damage control after Shan blew his spot last tribal. 

I hope in real life Liana is book smart, because she's definitely not Survivor smart. At least now she'll get some food, a shower, and can write about mean, old Xander in her burn book. 

Heather removed the Visor of White Obliviousness, let her hair down, and donned the Bandana of Wokeness. Probst, your work on racial awareness is done. You've saved society. Haha. I guess Rip Van Karen just slept through everything that's happened (and continues to happen) to black people in this country. Oh, there's trouble? Not at the country club there's not. Someone get Heather another Tom Collins. 

I couldn't decide if Shan had been crying or was downwind from all the fumes from Probst's bullshit. Didn't anyone ever tell, Shan...Jesus doesn't like sore losers?

The producers of Survivor really don't understand high stakes gameplay, do they? I mean, pick a box, any box is not exactly high drama. What next? Plinko of Peril? Tiddlywinks of Terror? Hopscotch of Horror? 

 

[meep.meep]

1 hour ago, Hera said:

Same. I already didn't like this twist—why would you penalize someone for choosing to participate in a challenge? There's already the shot in the dark, if people want to leave their fate up to blind chance. Furthermore, making fire seems like the obvious task, but even something like have to recite all the pre-jury boots in order would have been better than a Monty Hall game.

Final thought: I bet it pained Shan not to be able to interject at Tribal Council when Ricard and Deshawn were hashing over what happened that led to her being voted out.

I may be the only person who feels this way, but I liked the Do or Die.  It let people opt out of the immunity challenge, which they could see, without penalty.  It meant that one person who did try to win immunity would face another challenge in which they could possibly gain immunity.  And Jeff described it as a pure luck game - they weren't going to build fire or use their memory, just take a chance and hope for the best.  I expected him to stroll out with a quarter.

And it was totally killing Shan to not talk at Tribal.

[Chicago Redshirt]

The Primetimer recap references the notion that Naseer's hidden immunity idol has potentially been rehidden.

Anybody have an idea 1. whether this might be true and 2. why it would be Naseer's rather than Shan's, or both?

[deirdra]

10 hours ago, Valerie said:

Too many shots of Shan looking pouty in TC. Give it up, Editors, your princess got voted out as she deserved. Please don't give her extra screentime.

I'm starting to worry that there may be a new special twist where a jury member gets to come back into the game.

[Nashville]

21 hours ago, 30 Helens said:

I’m wondering if I missed something, because… Danny spent his entire life, including most of his adult life, being angry at his father for dying in a car accident? I understand being angry at fate, or the other driver, or being angry at his father if he had died of a drug overdose or something else within his control, but a car accident?? That is not only sad, it seems unfair to his father, and I don’t get it.

 

20 hours ago, CraftyHazel said:

Yeah, that made no sense at all. 

Not saying this with any intention of it being any kind of personal attack - so please don’t take it as such - but expecting an 8-year-old’s emotional reactions to a horrific life-altering event to make sense is… well, nonsensical.  Biologically and psychologically speaking, emotions and logic don’t even live in the same ZIP code.

 

10 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

No doubt that Jeff knew which symbols were in which boxes. The producers started the season off leaning hard on the Prisoner's dilemma, and now they decided to dive into the Monty Hall Problem. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

 

The applicability of the Monty Hall Problem to this episode’s scenario is dependent upon the element of true randomness (or lack thereof) present at two points in the DoD process:

1. The initial presentation of choices - i.e., the order in which the boxes were lined up as options from which Deshawn must make his selection.  If the initial placement of the boxes was truly random - that is, Jeff didn’t know (or wasn’t looking out for) which box went where when he initially lined them up for selection - then Deshawn’s first pick is a total crapshoot; if Jiffy was clued in to the individual box contents before or as he placed them, however, then Deshawn has to take Peachy’s personal biases (both conscious and unconscious) into account in the initial placements - and therefore, Deshawn’s selection.  We the Audience lack sufficient data to know one way or the other, though.
2. The mid-contest reveal; did Jeff know the contents of the box before he opened it?  Odds are, Probst probably did - the backs of the individual boxes visible to Jeff but not to Deshawn could’ve been marked or coded in some way as to indicate their contents, or Production could’ve been whispering in JP’s earbud - but there also exists the possibility Production kept Jiffy in the dark so his body language wouldn’t consciously or unconsciously telegraph giveaways to Deshawn, and counted on the 67% chance Jeff’s midway reveal would extend the suspense as long as possible.

The point of all this blather is this: von Savant’s solution to the Monty Hall Problem is correct as a purely mathematical model - but by definition, that also means it does not take into account any potential for human-introduced selection bias.  It is also entirely dependent upon absolute randomness in the initial selection AND an absolute lack of randomness in the midway reveal - both of which we may strongly suspect, but at present do not know.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Nashville
Formatting

[30 Helens]

4 hours ago, iMonrey said:

Also, it irritated me to watch Xander kiss up to Probst and production by claiming he was "glad" that all these new twists and gimmicks made it essentially impossible to plan for anything.

I like Xander, but I was also giving him some side eye over this. It sounded prompted. At the very least, I’m sure Jeff was timecoding it for the editors: “Make sure you include that quote!”

7 minutes ago, Nashville said:

Not saying this with any intention of it being any kind of personal attack - so please don’t take it as such - but expecting an 8-year-old’s emotional reactions to a horrific life-altering event to make sense is… well, nonsensical.  Biologically and psychologically speaking, emotions and logic don’t even live in the same ZIP code.

No offense taken, and I totally agree. It’s not Danny the Child who confused me, it was Danny the Adult Who Still Carried a Grudge. At some point, I would have expected him to realize that his father did not choose to leave him by dying in a car accident.

2 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

He said something like "I pulled that off." It seems to me like Xander thinks he's a 'big deal' when he pretty clearly has always been just a vote that no one sees as a threat for some reason that we haven't really been privy to. I mean, as @fishcakes has been saying, he has had an idol that everyone knows about this whole time and they have barely tried to even flush it. That makes it clear to me he's pretty much a nonentity in the game.

Maybe, but there’s a whole of stuff we never see. Maybe Xander has been leading some strategies that just aren’t making the cut. It’s not like gameplay has been the focus of the season.

17 minutes ago, deirdra said:

I'm starting to worry that there may be a new special twist where a jury member gets to come back into the game.

If Jeff thought of it, I’m sure it will happen. Because his wishboard has no filter.

[princelina]

3 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

He said something like "I pulled that off." It seems to me like Xander thinks he's a 'big deal' when he pretty clearly has always been just a vote that no one sees as a threat for some reason that we haven't really been privy to. I mean, as @fishcakes has been saying, he has had an idol that everyone knows about this whole time and they have barely tried to even flush it. That makes it clear to me he's pretty much a nonentity in the game.

My take on that was that he was actually more involved than we were allowed to see - at the previous TC he had told Jeff that no one talked to him and everyone ignored him so he didn't know what was going on.  But actually he was  involved in the plot.  I think he was excited to finally be in the lead alliance rather than the bottom of the barrel floater.

[SVNBob]

On 12/1/2021 at 10:24 PM, 30 Helens said:

 I have no idea at this point who has what. I didn’t know Xander had an extra vote until he played it.

This is why I've been doing the Tracker thread for the past few seasons.

 

On 12/2/2021 at 12:15 AM, Andyourlittledog2 said:

Having the Do or Die be a simple game of chance with a two to one chance of losing was awful. I thought they'd have to do something real like make fire or do a puzzle or something. But no, just pick a box, any box. It was like some carnival game of chance.

As noted, not a carnival game of chance, but the very specific final game from Let's Make a Deal, and the relatively well-known Monty Hall Paradox.

20 hours ago, 30 Helens said:

I’m not a conspiracy-minded person, but I felt like the outcome was predetermined. Jeff did not open that first box without knowing what was inside. And I think Deshawn’s chosen box contained whatever the producers wanted it to. This is not the type of game show that is regulated for fairness. Manipulation is allowed, and I don’t trust them to just let the game play out. Not any more.

Of course he knew.  That's how the problem works.  Monty (and now Wayne Brady) always knew where the Zonks were.  And in every description of the problem, the "host" character also always knows.

It could screw up the problem if the host didn't know.   Hypothetically, if the host didn't know what each option was, and the player picked incorrectly, the host could accidentally reveal the correct option when making the offer to switch.  Then the game is over.

 

18 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

No doubt that Jeff knew which symbols were in which boxes. The producers started the season off leaning hard on the Prisoner's dilemma, and now they decided to dive into the Monty Hall Problem. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

When given a choice among three options, and shown that one of the options that you didn't pick is undesirable and then given an option to switch, actual math says you should switch. This is counter-intuitive, because the average person thinks that the two unknowns have a 50-50 shot at being the preferred choice. But actually, the probability of one choice among three being correct is 33 percent, and two choices among three is 66 percent. The revealed "bad" choice and the unrevealed choice still collectively have a 66 percent chance of being the correct one.

This is why it's also called the Monty Hall Paradox.

 

16 hours ago, fishcakes said:

In general, I feel that since twists have always been part of the game, there's no such thing as an unfair twist, but the Monty Hall problem comes damned close. It's not so much that someone can go out without a vote, since that can happen with rock draws as well, but at least there, you have the option of flipping your vote and not having to go to rocks. In this specific instance though, it was really Deshawn's only chance. If he hadn't played in the IC, he would have been voted out. If he played and didn't win, he would have been voted out. Getting a second shot at immunity and then actually getting it by random chance was really the only way he could be saved. So it worked out for him, but I'm still not crazy about the twist.

Not that he knew that going into the challenge.

11 hours ago, himela said:

I'm also impressed with Xander who knows at 20 about the Monty Hall problem. I'm 40 and I still don't get it. :P

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Professor Christian appeared on RHAP:Know-It-Alls with Cesternino and Fishbach to explain the problem.  To summarize what he said:

Initially, you've got a 1/3 chance of choosing the right option, which means you've got a 2/3 chance of choosing wrong.  When Monty Probst offers the chance to switch after revealing one of the wrong options, what he's really offering is either your original choice (still a 1/3 chance), or the better of the 2 other options (a 2/3 chance consolidated into 1 option). 

That's why it's mathematically better to switch.  Deshawn just defied the (literal) odds.

 

9 hours ago, Quilt Fairy said:

Just wanted to pop in here to say I think the title of the episode should have been "The Monty Hall Problem". 

Isn't Xander in IT?  He might have learned of this in school. 

His on-screen job title is "App Developer".  Which means he's likely had some computer courses and had thus heard of the problem.

Edited December 3, 2021 by SVNBob

[Tsunami1981]

18 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

Xander is so not seen as a threat in this game. People are almost ignoring him. When was the last time people mentioned needing to vote him out because of the idol? It is like he has become an after thought. Danny talked to Xander about voting out Ricard. Xander wisely saw that Ricard is a threat but that he was not going to be in a good place voting with Liana, Danny, and DeShawn. But Xander is driving nothing. Even Xander saw that Erika was the one who might change her vote and cause the plan to fail. 

It is crazy to me that someone with an idol and an advantage is essentially a non-entity but that is what I am seeing from Xander. The scene in the shelter where Xander is all happy and excited was humorous to Heather, Ricard, and Erika. I suspect part of their reaction was that somehow Xander thought that he played a larger role in this then he actually did.

Tribal was interesting. I thought that it was a good conversation and I think that it makes sense when you remember the context of this exact season. There was COVID and then the various issue surrounding racial justice in the US. Between the isolation of COVID and the heightened awareness of issues of social justice, the conversations, the alliance attempt between the AA in the tribe, and the angst at its failure makes 100% sense. I fear that it is not going to hold up in future years because there is no context to their conversations. There is no direct mention of George Floyd or Briana Taylor or COVID.

While I don't watch Survivor for these types of conversations, I appreciate that it is being discussed and putting forward very loudly the cultural and personal impact that these issues have had. I think Xander's response was pretty much spot on and was the cherry on the sunday. All of this has been happening for years and has been behind the scenes for years but it is new to many people who are not AA.

And then Liana was voted out because the choice for Ricard, Xander, Erika, and Heather is that they would be the fourth person in the other alliance and that is not why they are out playing Survivor. The new four gives Ricard and Xander some room to move and a path to the final game that allying with Liana, Danny, and DeShawn.

It was an interesting night.

Well said. Totally agree.

I agree with the sentiment about "Do or Die." Getting booted in a game of three-card monte is wrong and not the way to go.

I had a pretty strong aversion to Ricard through the first half of the season, but he's grown on me. He's transformed from an antagonistic, standoffish, backbiting prick, to an emotionally calm, relatable, and reasonable guy. He seems happier. I guess because he's no longer among strangers. He's definitely the frontrunner right now.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Tsunami1982

[Wonderlad71]

I for one am glad Ricard survived.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Wonderlad71

[Brynnjk]

On 12/2/2021 at 4:36 AM, violet and green said:

On the plus side, lots of good pouting and sulking from Shan!

So much this.  I appreciate people like Tiffany, Evvie & Bashir who are enjoying tribals and appreciating being on the jury even if they are personally disappointed.  Shan's "I'm not happy face" and then the "Oh no not my bestie Liana's face" are not a good look for her.  It's still somehow all about Shan even when she's on the jury.  

Also this new Do or Die twist is super stupid Jeff.  Survivor has lasted as long as it has because of it's classic elements.  The stupid things clutter up the game and make me happy I can Fast forward.  I hope he read all the reviews last week that were praising a classic episode where there were no twists thrown in that kept everyone riveted.

And (I sound so mean, I don't mean to be) but I just don't care about the tragic backstories.  Most people have something in their life that's hard but the epic sweeping photo montage was just too much.  Everyone struggles with something so here on Survivor, I want to see people struggling with the game, the relationships.  I don't want them up on a tragic backstory pedastal.  

 

 

[ProfCrash]

Shan looks like she is going to be the chief interrogator/upset person at Ponderosa. She was all over Liana asking questions and wanting to know why Liana stabbed her in the back. I don’t expect better behavior from her on the jury and feel sorry for what Danny and DeShawn might face if they are voted out. 

[Jobiska]

12 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

The Primetimer recap references the notion that Naseer's hidden immunity idol has potentially been rehidden.

Anybody have an idea 1. whether this might be true and 2. why it would be Naseer's rather than Shan's, or both?

If you go out with it, it's always been that you keep it as a sad souvenir.  Even if they changed this, I agree that there is no sense to hiding one over the other.  

However, there is generally a new idol hidden at the merge camp.  I'm guessing that the players know this and suspect there is one out there.

[AncientNewbie]

I'm a bit torn on Very Special Tribal. I really appreciated the apparently frank discussion and insight. But Jeff trying to relive having a talk show gets so old, as does his self-important pronouncements about the value of Survivor. 

[blackwing]

1 hour ago, Jobiska said:

If you go out with it, it's always been that you keep it as a sad souvenir.  Even if they changed this, I agree that there is no sense to hiding one over the other.  

However, there is generally a new idol hidden at the merge camp.  I'm guessing that the players know this and suspect there is one out there.

I would think there should be a merge idol... or they simply re-hid Naseer's idol.  Naseer found his Beware Advantage at the blue beach and I believe the merge camp is at the blue beach.  Genie found the BA at the green beach, which is not used anymore.

I'm curious whether if there is an idol if it has been there since the day after Naseer went out or since the merge.  If it has been since the merge, then it seems like it would have been there for days without anyone looking (or at least us being shown that people were looking).

I'm curious as to what would have happened if an idol had gotten rehidden at the green beach but nobody found it.  At the merge, they move to the blue beach.  That reward that Ricard won was at the green beach.  Are they allowed to use time at that reward to hunt for an idol at a now-defunct beach?  Or would TPTB have taken the idol away once the beach was closed.

[Nashville]

15 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

The Primetimer recap references the notion that Naseer's hidden immunity idol has potentially been rehidden.

Anybody have an idea 1. whether this might be true and 2. why it would be Naseer's rather than Shan's, or both?

1. Naseer’s idol?  Shouldn’t be true.
2. Should be neither, if past practice is any indicator.  Pre-merge camp-specific idols don’t “regenerate” post-merge; they can be used, or they can walk out in their owner’s pocket - but either way, they don’t come back into the game.

 

2 hours ago, Jobiska said:

However, there is generally a new idol hidden at the merge camp.  I'm guessing that the players know this and suspect there is one out there.

Exactly what I was going to say - and ask, in case someone had found a post-merge idol and I’d missed it.  
 

[truthaboutluv]

21 hours ago, KeithJ said:

They brought it upon themselves by voting out of one of their own long before they needed to.

And it's not even ousting Shan but how her elimination came about. DeShawn and Danny wanted to get rid of Ricard because yes, they were wise enough to know he's a threat and also because they wanted to split him and Shan up. The initial plan wasn't to go after Shan. It was to go after her number one, to yes, weaken her game a little. 

Liana was the dumbass who went running to Shan with this detail, who Shan herself, a bigger idiot, went to Ricard with the information. Well at that point Ricard realized the walls were starting to close in and so it'd probably be better for him to dump Shan then.

And he was able to pull it off because DeShawn and Danny started questioning Liana and Shan seeing as they were the ones who told Ricard their plan. The four of Liana, Shan, DeShawn and Danny could have been fine had Liana just kept DeShawn and Danny's plan to go after Ricard, to herself. 

[Taeolas]

18 hours ago, deirdra said:

I'm starting to worry that there may be a new special twist where a jury member gets to come back into the game.

 

That would KILL the game 100% dead. One of the constants of Survivor from the beginning is that once you get to the Jury (or get to the Ponderosa after elimination), you're out.  You aren't coming back. 

Sure they introduced Exile Island and similar twists to provide a way back in. But once you clean up at Ponderosa, you're out of the active game.  It's a big element of the sense of fairness of the game. At Ponderosa, you can eat, you can get a good nights sleep, you get clean clothes and so forth. So coming back into the game from there isn't fair to the other contestants, and would shatter what little remains of the Survivor illusion. 

It's been pretty constant, that if a show is going to provide a way for contestants to reenter the game after elimination, the contestants have to be doing a concurrent game after elimination. Whether it's Survivor's Exile island, Top Chef's Last Chance Kitchen, or RuPaul's "Game within a game", there is an on going challenge to keep contestants playing so they don't have too much of an advantage (or disadvantage) coming back. (Exceptions VERY RARELY if a Just-eliminated contestant is brought back for unforeseen circumstances) 

And yeah, for the most part, I'm tired of these "Reenter the competition" methods and wish shows would stop doing them. But considering producers are realizing they can get more eyes on their show without more network time with these side games (ie Last Chance Kitchen), I suspect we'll be seeing them more and more often as time goes on. 

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing The Amazing Race have a "Stowaway Challenge" for eliminated teams to keep running and to sneak back into the race or something stupid like that, once TAR production can get back to true normal. 

[Kenz]

I'm happy that Shan was voted out when she was. She was so sure of her superiority at managing the game. Her sour face at the tribal meeting solidifies what kind of bad sport she is. I wouldn't want her for my pastor if I happened to be religious.

[ArtFossil]

On 12/2/2021 at 4:00 PM, himela said:

I'm also impressed with Xander who knows at 20 about the Monty Hall problem. I'm 40 and I still don't get it. :P

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

 

Xander is a coder, right? As a computational thinker I would expect him to be familiar with the Monty Hall problem.

[princelina]

On 12/2/2021 at 2:18 PM, millennium said:

Was anyone else subjected to an 8-10 minute commercial break following the fadeout of Jeff setting up the Do or Die?  I must have had to sit through 15 ads and network promos.  

If you tape it and start watching at 8:20 you can still be done at 9 and skip all the commercials 😉

[deirdra]

1 hour ago, princelina said:

If you tape it and start watching at 8:20 you can still be done at 9 and skip all the commercials 😉

That's what I do, and can still participate in Live Chat.

[whiporee]

Listening to Tyson's Podcast (The Pod has Spoken, if you're interested), he's said that tribal council usually go on for two or three hours. There's a lot that is said that doesn't make the screen. Also that the producers ask them when they arrive who they plan to vote for, and they give that info to Jeffy.

With that said, I wonder how much was edited out of the Very Special Conversation. Did anyone mention to DeShawn and Danny that two other AA player were voted out -- one of them directly by Shan, and the other directly by Lianna. Solidarity has been fungible for Lianna she far, and they ought to be aware of that as DeShawn feels guilty about breaking things up.