Josh & Anna Smuggar: A Series of Unfortunate Events

[merylinkid]

19 hours ago, Churchhoney said:

The thing about the Josh-won't-plead-guilty thing that bothers me most (and my guess is that, very very very unfortunately, he won't) is that, to me, it shows that he truly has absolutely no concept of ethics/morality/decency at all and that he doesn't give a single crap about the one group of people he might possibly give a tiny crap about -- his seven children. 

That ship has sailed.   If he gave a crap about his kids -- he wouldn't have been watching CHILD sexual abuse images in the first place.   I know he hasn't been found guilty yet so there is no legal finding he did watch such images, but yeah, if he did it, he didn't care about his kids in the first place.

[Churchhoney]

30 minutes ago, merylinkid said:

That ship has sailed.   If he gave a crap about his kids -- he wouldn't have been watching CHILD sexual abuse images in the first place.   I know he hasn't been found guilty yet so there is no legal finding he did watch such images, but yeah, if he did it, he didn't care about his kids in the first place.

Yeah, I get your reasoning.....

But I feel like my own observation has shown people to be much better (and inveterate) compartmentalizers than that. And I'd guess compartmentalization is one of Josh's few actual developed talents. 

[floridamom]

If Josh is guilty of these charges, and he knows the truth about this, then he should plead guilty like a good Christian and face the music for his actions. What did Michelle and Jim Bob go on TV and preach??? "The truth shall find you out". They went on and on about how it's better to admit what you have done; be honest before God and people on Earth and pay your debt. 

[Chicklet]

1 hour ago, floridamom said:

If Josh is guilty of these charges, and he knows the truth about this, then he should plead guilty like a good Christian and face the music for his actions. What did Michelle and Jim Bob go on TV and preach??? "The truth shall find you out". They went on and on about how it's better to admit what you have done; be honest before God and people on Earth and pay your debt. 

Unless it's their own spawn and golden child, then all bets are off. They of course are above all that bible morality stuff, they are special because...Jesus!

[BigBingerBro]

Josh Duggar’s Trial: Duggar Family Critics Question Who Will Pay $500,000 if Josh Is Charged on 2 Accounts

[Absolom]

I do wish the creators of these articles paid a bit more attention.  He's already charged.  They mean if he's convicted.  Plus he isn't any more likely to get the maximum fine than he is to get the maxiumum prison sentence if conviceted, is he?

Edited October 16, 2021 by Absolom

[sagittarius sue]

19 hours ago, BigBingerBro said:

An Update On Josh Duggar — This Man’s Legal Team Has Zero Shame

An enjoyable article.  I particularly liked this subheader,

Josh Duggar’s Latest Frantic Attempt To Wriggle His Pasty, Slimy Body Free From The Clutches Of Accountability

Edited October 16, 2021 by sagittarius sue

[drafan]

2 hours ago, sagittarius sue said:

Josh Duggar’s Latest Frantic Attempt To Wriggle His Pasty, Slimy Body Free From The Clutches Of Accountability

Can this become the Sex Pest /Baby Fever Victim thread title?

[farmgal4]

8 hours ago, floridamom said:

If Josh is guilty of these charges, and he knows the truth about this, then he should plead guilty like a good Christian and face the music for his actions. What did Michelle and Jim Bob go on TV and preach??? "The truth shall find you out". They went on and on about how it's better to admit what you have done; be honest before God and people on Earth and pay your debt. 

The fact that he won’t, or can’t, do this has convinced me that he’s a sociopath.  JMHO

[hathorlive]

6 hours ago, Absolom said:

I do wish the creators of these articles paid a bit more attention.  He's already charged.  They mean if he's convicted.  Plus he isn't any more likely to get the maximum fine than he is to get the maxiumum prison sentence if conviceted, is he?

Okay, I've never ONCE seen anyone convicted get hit with a fee or fine.  There are some victims who are known NCMEC images that have court orders that say if you have their images on your computer, you have to pay them money.  I've never seen that enforced.  Where do they come up with these figures?   There are all sorts of penalties and fines on the books but again, I've never seen them enforced.  The vloggers are having a great time with this and I'd LOVE to see him get hit up with fines.  Just don't hold your breath.  Most judges seem to think "well, he's going to jail isn't that enough?"

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by hathorlive

[FizzyPuff]

On 10/16/2021 at 4:59 PM, floridamom said:

If Josh is guilty of these charges, and he knows the truth about this, then he should plead guilty like a good Christian and face the music for his actions. What did Michelle and Jim Bob go on TV and preach??? "The truth shall find you out". They went on and on about how it's better to admit what you have done; be honest before God and people on Earth and pay your debt. 

 But he isn’t guilty, don’t you know it was Satan 🙄

[emmawoodhouse]

37 minutes ago, FizzyPuff said:

 But he isn’t guilty, don’t you know it was Satan 🙄

Yeah, Satan is spending inordinate amounts of time building fortresses around Smuggar's heart. 🙄

[Westiepeach]

Yeah, because Satan doesn’t have anything better to do… ::eye roll::

[hathorlive]

23 minutes ago, Westiepeach said:

Yeah, because Satan doesn’t have anything better to do… ::eye roll::

I'm pretty sure that even Satan is like "don't blame me for that sick shit". 

[SusanM]

1 hour ago, Westiepeach said:

Yeah, because Satan doesn’t have anything better to do… ::eye roll::

The Duggars think the sun rises and sets only for them.  For years they've sung the "Satan is doing this just to ruin Joshie's life because...reasons" .  More recently Anna even blamed Biden for this even though the original investigation was begun long before he became President again "They want to ruin Joshie's life because...reasons"  It's incredible how important they think they are!

Edited October 18, 2021 by SusannahM

[emmawoodhouse]

Smuggar will never take responsibility for anything bad that happens to him. He hasn't in the past, and he fails to now. He's one of the most entitled little shits I have ever run across. 

[Nysha]

22 hours ago, hathorlive said:

Okay, I've never ONCE seen anyone convicted get hit with a fee or fine.  There are some victims who are known NCMEC images that have court orders that say if you have their images on your computer, you have to pay them money.  I've never seen that enforced.  Where do they come up with these figures?   There are all sorts of penalties and fines on the books but again, I've never seen them enforced.  The vloggers are having a great time with this and I'd LOVE to see him get hit up with fines.  Just don't hold your breath.  Most judges seem to think "well, he's going to jail isn't that enough?"

Do judges not think that CSA is a horrific as we do? Why aren't these guys guaranteed the maximum sentence and fine and offered the lower end if they plea?

[Scarlett45]

22 hours ago, hathorlive said:

Okay, I've never ONCE seen anyone convicted get hit with a fee or fine.  There are some victims who are known NCMEC images that have court orders that say if you have their images on your computer, you have to pay them money.  I've never seen that enforced.  Where do they come up with these figures?   There are all sorts of penalties and fines on the books but again, I've never seen them enforced.  The vloggers are having a great time with this and I'd LOVE to see him get hit up with fines.  Just don't hold your breath.  Most judges seem to think "well, he's going to jail isn't that enough?"

 

With fines and monetary penalties (both in criminal and civil court), judgements are all are well and good but it doesn’t make the guilty party have the money to pay up. It doesn’t make them earn an income in the future to be able to pay the judgment. 
 

I doubt Josh has much in his name (as a biological person, not in a trust, LLC etc) to pay a fine if he was found guilty on these charges.

1 hour ago, emmawoodhouse said:

Smuggar will never take responsibility for anything bad that happens to him. He hasn't in the past, and he fails to now. He's one of the most entitled little shits I have ever run across. 

This I would agree with. Hence why he was nicknamed “Smuggar” before any of the scandals were public. I could tell from the early specials that NONE of the older kids liked Josh at all, before any of the scandals were public knowledge. 

[merylinkid]

On 10/16/2021 at 11:59 AM, floridamom said:

and pay your debt. 

Said the grifters who ask for "love offerings" and expect freebies because they believe in the Right Jesus.

[hathorlive]

13 minutes ago, Nysha said:

Do judges not think that CSA is a horrific as we do? Why aren't these guys guaranteed the maximum sentence and fine and offered the lower end if they plea?

They do think it's bad and horrible.  I'm just saying it's not bad and horrible enough to give bad and horrible sentences, which is why we rarely see possession given more than 7 to 10 years.  Most of the judges have been there and done that and don't get too riled up either way.  I guess that's good for a judge but some of these perps need to be hit up with every enhancer and fine possible.  I'm just saying in my 16/17 years of doing this, I've never seen it done.  Maybe I'm in the wrong state.  Here's hoping that Arkansas is harsher, but having seen similar cases get the same 7 to 10 years, I'm not holding my breath.  All I can hope for is that this judge is worn out from all the Josh Duggar cases and hits him hard.

[quarks]

6 minutes ago, Nysha said:

Do judges not think that CSA is a horrific as we do? Why aren't these guys guaranteed the maximum sentence and fine and offered the lower end if they plea?

On a federal level, I don't think this has anything to do with anyone's feelings. As per a 1984 law, federal judges need to follow the federal sentencing guidelines created by the United States Sentencing Commission.

The result is this absolutely horrific looking chart which the federal government has kindly put online here:

https://www.ussc.gov/guidelines/2018-guidelines-manual/annotated-2018-chapter-5

Beneath the chart, the government has also provided a lengthy and very detailed list of all of the factors the judge needs to consider. 

The relevant paragraph:

"Departures Based on Plea Agreements.—Subsection (d)(4) prohibits a downward departure based only on the defendant's decision, in and of itself, to plead guilty to the offense or to enter a plea agreement with respect to the offense.  Even though a departure may not be based merely on the fact that the defendant agreed to plead guilty or enter a plea agreement, a departure may be based on justifiable, non-prohibited reasons for departure as part of a sentence that is recommended, or agreed to, in the plea agreement and accepted by the court.  See §6B1.2 (Standards for Acceptance of Plea Agreements).  In cases in which the court departs based on such reasons as set forth in the plea agreement, the court must state the reasons for departure with specificity in the statement of reasons form, as required by subsection (e). "

Which is to say, legally, federal judges can consider this as one factor during sentencing, but it can't be the only factor. 

[irisheyes]

I’d love Josh to go away for a gazillion years, but he’s NEVER had serious consequences for his crap. Five years in federal custody might just break him. (And, I’m assuming he’ll be in at least medium security. But, I’ll let people smarter than me discuss that.)

[Tabbygirl521]

On 10/16/2021 at 5:47 AM, Churchhoney said:

Yeah, I get your reasoning.....

But I feel like my own observation has shown people to be much better (and inveterate) compartmentalizers than that. And I'd guess compartmentalization is one of Josh's few actual developed talents. 

That makes sense. Even Ted Bundy had a girlfriend during the time he was killing in the Seattle area and she never suspected a thing. Cruelty to her was off limits. 

[Cinnabon]

Josh’s “situation.”

[ginger90]

4 hours ago, Cinnabon said:

Josh’s “situation.”

Is this a “fan” page?

Edited October 18, 2021 by ginger90

[sheshark]

2 hours ago, ginger90 said:

Is this a “fan” page?

Yes.

[Albanyguy]

4 hours ago, ginger90 said:

Is this a “fan” page?

It’s run by two fools named Lily and Ellie who bill themselves as personal friends of the Duggars. They’re the humpiest leghumpers who ever humped and they’ve always had a massive crush on Josh. The “situation” must be killing them.

[GeeGolly]

If Josh pleads, would he be appearing in court today? Or is this something they decide behind closed doors and then set a future court date?

[Zella]

9 hours ago, Tabbygirl521 said:

That makes sense. Even Ted Bundy had a girlfriend during the time he was killing in the Seattle area and she never suspected a thing. Cruelty to her was off limits. 

Bundy was also friends and coworkers on a suicide hotline with Ann Rule before she was Ann Rule the Famous Crime Writer. She said he was never anything but kind to her and she never suspected him. But she also acknowledged she was never in any danger from him because she wasn't his victim type--young thin brunettes with long hair.

Based on the material he was downloading and the molestations and the accusations of rape against him, I think Josh has a much broader range of preferred victim types than Bundy, but I do think Josh, like a lot of predators and manipulators of varying stripes, is good at evaluating who makes a likely target and who doesn't. I think he is less skilled at not tipping off people's radar, especially outside the fundie circle.

And I think the way he interacted with the cops when they descended on his car lot is a good look at how he interacts with people who are never in any danger from him. I don't think Josh is naturally charming like Bundy could be and I think he is used to being smarter than a lot of very dumb people, so he does dumb, awkward things around normal people. But he comes across to me as if he was really trying his damnedest to be smarmily cooperative and likable while also trying really hard to manipulate them. "Are you gentlemen here to look for child pornography? A thing like that! I may need to go check on my pregnant wife and call my lawyer. Did I mention my wife was pregnant? You want me to answer questions? I guess, officer. I'm a respectable member of my community. Oh maybe not those questions." 

That approach probably works wonders around people like the Duggars. It was much less successful with federal agents. 

5 minutes ago, GeeGolly said:

If Josh pleads, would he be appearing in court today? Or is this something they decide behind closed doors and then set a future court date?

Just as a true crime aficionado, I've heard of people doing either one. But I defer to our attorneys. :) my guess is it probably depends on whether a court appearance is already scheduled and when they decide to do so.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Zella

[GeeGolly]

4 minutes ago, Zella said:

Bundy was also friends and coworkers on a suicide hotline with Ann Rule before she was Ann Rule the Famous Crime Writer. She said he was never anything but kind to her and she never suspected him. But she also acknowledged she was never in any danger from him because she wasn't his victim type--young thin brunettes.

Based on the material he was downloading and the molestations and the accusations of rape against him, I think Josh has a much broader range of preferred victim types than Bundy, but I do think Josh, like a lot of predators and manipulators of varying stripes, is good at evaluating who makes a likely target and who doesn't. I think he is less skilled at not tipping off people's radar, especially outside the fundie circle.

And I think the way he interacted with the cops when they descended on his car lot is a good look at how he interacts with people who are never in any danger from him. I don't think Josh is naturally charming like Bundy could be and I think he is used to being smarter than a lot of very dumb people, so he does dumb, awkward things around normal people. But he comes across to me as if he was really trying his damnedest to be smarmily cooperative and likable while also trying really hard to manipulate them. "Are you gentlemen here to look for child pornography? A thing like that! I may need to go check on my pregnant wife and call my lawyer. Did I mention my wife was pregnant? You want me to answer questions? I guess, officer. I'm a respectable member of my community. Oh maybe not those questions." 

Just as a true crime aficionado, I've heard of people doing either one. But I defer to our attorneys. :) 

You nailed Josh. He always thinks he can outwit anyone. And only a Fundy would think having a pregnant wife makes one look innocent.

[MargeGunderson]

1 minute ago, GeeGolly said:

You nailed Josh. He always thinks he can outwit anyone. And only a Fundy would think having a pregnant wife makes one look innocent.

Yeah, I’ll admit that looking at the pregnant wife of someone accused of possessing images of CSB makes me think “oh, another potential future victim.” Not what the defense team hopes for.

[Zella]

2 minutes ago, GeeGolly said:

You nailed Josh. He always thinks he can outwit anyone. And only a Fundy would think having a pregnant wife makes one look innocent.

LOL yep. 

It occurred to me as I was typing that Josh is the ultimate big fish in a small pond. I've said that before about Jessa and her apparent opposition to change, but the difference I think is that Jessa deep down really is instinctively afraid of moving outside the world she knows. So, she doubles down on it. I don't know that she is reflective enough to conclude that about herself, but she doesn't have to be to know she is uncomfortable outside of what she is used to.

I don't think Josh processes it that way at all because he just assumes he will be awesome because he is Josh Duggar, thank you very much, and then is confused when the world bitch-slaps him. 

[GeeGolly]

4 minutes ago, MargeGunderson said:

Yeah, I’ll admit that looking at the pregnant wife of someone accused of possessing images of CSB makes me think “oh, another potential future victim.” Not what the defense team hopes for.

Agree.

Josh thinks he's saying, "It wasn't me, I don't need videos, I can have all the sex I want. I can prove it because I made my wife pregnant".

[scriggle]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know if Anna was pregnant on the dates the material was downloaded?

[quarks]

20 minutes ago, GeeGolly said:

If Josh pleads, would he be appearing in court today? Or is this something they decide behind closed doors and then set a future court date?

Either.

But as far as I know, the judge still hasn't ruled on the fifth motion - the one about the search warrant/request for a Franks hearing.

Given the complexity of this motion, I think the defense has reasons to think that the judge might grant this hearing, so it might make sense, from their point of view, not to accept a plea agreement today. 

I'm saying might, because I still think that from a purely financial and public relations perspective, the best thing that Josh can do for Josh is to accept a plea agreement. 

[dariafan]

They just need to phrase it to him correctly:  hey how about having your own place , 3 meals a day.  No helping with children.  No nagging wife ?  Maybe learn a trade ?   Great 5-10 years 

[quarks]

Update: Reddit users are reporting that Josh's fifth motion (about the search warrants/request for a Franks hearing) has also been denied.

 

[Zella]

7 minutes ago, quarks said:

Update: Reddit users are reporting that Josh's fifth motion (about the search warrants/request for a Franks hearing) has also been denied.

 

And today is the plea deal deadline, right? I bet Josh is having some interesting conversations with his lawyers right now. 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Zella

[quarks]

Just now, Zella said:

And today is the plea deadline, right? I bet Josh is having some interesting conversations with his lawyers right now. 

Apparently he can still accept a plea agreement right up until jury deliberations start. 

BUT, after today, he won't know what's IN the agreement before he signs it. So it's in his best interests to sign an agreement today, when he knows exactly what he's agreeing to.

He presumably has until the end of business today to file that agreement. If he does, the court probably won't publish that filing/agreement for a few more days. So unless we get some sort of official statement from his attorneys/the Duggars, I don't think we'll know his decision for a few more days.

As of right now, his trial still seems to be scheduled for November 30th. 

[Zella]

8 minutes ago, quarks said:

Apparently he can still accept a plea agreement right up until jury deliberations start. 

BUT, after today, he won't know what's IN the agreement before he signs it. So it's in his best interests to sign an agreement today, when he knows exactly what he's agreeing to.

He presumably has until the end of business today to file that agreement. If he does, the court probably won't publish that filing/agreement for a few more days. So unless we get some sort of official statement from his attorneys/the Duggars, I don't think we'll know his decision for a few more days.

As of right now, his trial still seems to be scheduled for November 30th. 

Thanks so much! I'd been wondering what would happen if he decided he wanted to plead guilty after today, and that makes a lot of sense. 

[Churchhoney]

3 hours ago, Zella said:

 

And I think the way he interacted with the cops when they descended on his car lot is a good look at how he interacts with people who are never in any danger from him. I don't think Josh is naturally charming like Bundy could be and I think he is used to being smarter than a lot of very dumb people, so he does dumb, awkward things around normal people. But he comes across to me as if he was really trying his damnedest to be smarmily cooperative and likable while also trying really hard to manipulate them. "Are you gentlemen here to look for child pornography? A thing like that! I may need to go check on my pregnant wife and call my lawyer. Did I mention my wife was pregnant? You want me to answer questions? I guess, officer. I'm a respectable member of my community. Oh maybe not those questions." 

That approach probably works wonders around people like the Duggars. It was much less successful with federal agents. 

 

Despite some glitches, Josh has lived in bubbles devoted to the myth of his superiority his whole life. His parents -- in line with Gothardism and super-fundieism -- raised him and his siblings to believe that Josh was The Leader Of Their Home by the ancient immutable laws of God's Patriarchy. And they promoted him at Gothard events and their home churches and even among JB's political colleagues as such, too.

You hear that from multiple witnesses. How he was held up as the great fundie hope for the future. And to some degree a lot of those men seemed to buy it, right along with JB and M, at least to some degree. As a kid and teen Josh reportedly had a real in with the other patriarchs that ran the local fundieist circle in which JB and M had their home church. He was accepted as the Golden Boy. He even was given credence as somebody who could run a political campaign -- as an utterly uneducated teenager. 

And then the Family Research Council gave him a major job and a big title, when he had no education and hardly any experience, only hype and the connections he had from his tv history and his Arkansas statehouse doings (which certainly were anything but substantial and anything but an unalloyed success -- but for some reason they bought it all, too, as an acceptable resume, despite otherwise hiring people with college educations and so on.). And he left there before his inadequacies got fully revealed by any true challenges. 

Not everybody would respond to that history by becoming more and more arrogant and sure of their ability to manipulate people and situations. But Josh obviously was born with a personality that did respond that way. So all that treatment was actually a kind of poison to him, making him more and more prone to misjudging his own abilities, although he and his parents probably thought it was all good. They thought they had Caesar Augustus, but what they actually had was Caligula. 

About time he ran into the real world and got his supposed skills tested. 'Cause he obviously still thinks he has those skills. 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Churchhoney

[MamaR]

2 hours ago, quarks said:

Either.

But as far as I know, the judge still hasn't ruled on the fifth motion - the one about the search warrant/request for a Franks hearing.

Given the complexity of this motion, I think the defense has reasons to think that the judge might grant this hearing, so it might make sense, from their point of view, not to accept a plea agreement today. 

I'm saying might, because I still think that from a purely financial and public relations perspective, the best thing that Josh can do for Josh is to accept a plea agreement. 

A Canadian here so not very knowledgeable about the Franks hearing. If a judge rules in favour of it does that mean the case will be dismissed?  
 

Sorry was late posting and I see the post that is appears to have been denied.  

Edited October 18, 2021 by MamaR
Slow posting

[Quilt Fairy]

37 minutes ago, MamaR said:

A Canadian here so not very knowledgeable about the Franks hearing. If a judge rules in favour of it does that mean the case will be dismissed?  

IANAL, but if the judge had agreed to the motion (apparently he denied it), it would have meant that they would have held another hearing (a Franks hearing), with witnesses, specifically about whether the warrant was valid and obtained in good faith.  If not, all the evidence obtained under that warrant would have been suppressed. 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Quilt Fairy

[hathorlive]

3 hours ago, GeeGolly said:

You nailed Josh. He always thinks he can outwit anyone. And only a Fundy would think having a pregnant wife makes one look innocent.

He gets that from JB.  "Vote for me, I'm trustworthy and chocked full of goodness.  See my 19 prairie dressed children of the corn?"  But appearing harmless and congenial is the hallmark of a predator.  No one turns their kid over to a guy who looks like a crazy homeless man.  But they do drop their guard around a clean cut guy holding a bible.  Any time we got a case in and I heard the suspect was a minister, band teacher or  coach, my radar went off.   Men who hold positions of trust with children.  Now, we all know that includes doctors. 

I think if Josh was taking a plea deal, we'd know by now.  Courts don't exactly stay open late for Duggar time. I could be wrong, lol.  But I think the fool is going to trial. 

[Quilt Fairy]

Here's the court's opinion.  Read'em and weep, Josh:

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/59871253/62/united-states-v-duggar/

 

ETA: Per usual, the court throws plenty of shade at Josh (really his lawyers, but it's funnier to read it as Josh himself.) 

ETA2:  Trigger warning: There is a description of one of the files in the opinion. 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Quilt Fairy

[On the Bias]

2 hours ago, quarks said:

BUT, after today, he won't know what's IN the agreement before he signs it. So it's in his best interests to sign an agreement today, when he knows exactly what he's agreeing to.

Sorry, there may be a misunderstanding, but Josh will always know what’s in his plea agreement.  His lawyers are ethically required to explain it to him, and before the judge accepts the plea he or she will question Josh to make sure he understands what he is pleading to and what sentence he faces.  That questioning is required under the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure (Rule 11, to be precise).  If Josh pleads guilty, he won’t be pleading blind.  

[MamaR]

30 minutes ago, Quilt Fairy said:

IANAL, but if the judge had agreed to the motion (apparently he denied it), it would have meant that they would have held another hearing (a Franks hearing), with witnesses, specifically about whether the warrant was valid and obtained in good faith.  If not, all the evidence obtained under that warrant would have been suppressed. 

Thank you!

[Quilt Fairy]

From what I've seen on Reddit, Josh has to accept the plea deal by today (either COB or midnight, opinions differ), but his lawyers have until Wednesday, Oct 20th, to file it with the court. 

[CandyCaneTree]

I just read the ruling and from what I understand that his lawyers were grasping at straws. Smuggar is fucked.  Accept the plea deal. 

[MargeGunderson]

Oh, the shade in that opinion is glorious! To one argument, they responded “The argument is rather thinly constructed, but the Court will nevertheless address it.” It almost verges on snarky in a few places. 

ETA - one section could have been summed up as “Bitch, please.” 

Edited October 18, 2021 by MargeGunderson