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Josh & Anna Smuggar: A Series of Unfortunate Events


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4 minutes ago, emmawoodhouse said:

Will Smuggar be allowed to wear the suit he wore to jail, or will he wear an orange jumpsuit and handcuffs? 

I think once sentenced it’s jail jumpsuit. If that is the case JB will lose his shit and say he won’t allow it. 

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7 hours ago, emmawoodhouse said:

Will Smuggar be allowed to wear the suit he wore to jail, or will he wear an orange jumpsuit and handcuffs to court? 

Anna is going to lose her sh!t. She's the one to keep our eyes on.

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8 hours ago, quarks said:

As per the current guidelines (which came into effect on March 14, 2022) this is incorrect. All federal inmates who are serving more than a year, but not serving a life sentence, regardless of the crime committed, are entitled to CGT credit, allowing them up to 54 days per year. 

If Josh receives a 10 year sentence, and receives full CGT credit, he would receive 540 days off his sentence - that is, about a year and a half.

You can read more about this at the federal website for the Bureau of Prisons:

https://www.bop.gov/inmates/fsa/faq.jsp

and here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/02/11/2022-02876/good-conduct-time-credit-under-the-first-step-act

Have the exclusions changed? At one time the crime he has been found guilty of would have made him ineligible under disqualifying offenses.

Edited by ginger90
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Tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow.   the sun'll come out tomorrow, betcha bottom dollar that tomorrow we'll see FF sentenced  ....

I do wonder if it is starting to sink in that this is really happening and that he is not going to get sent to "jesus jail" this time.

Edited by merylinkid
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2 hours ago, LilJen said:

“ they were so stunned by Josh’s character that they are convinced of his innocence,” she continued.”

Laughing my ass off here.

Ain't that great??

I re-read that article just now. I'd skimmed through it before. It was worth a better look. Lots of laughs indeed. I ❤️ how they captioned those photos. So snarky! 

It hit me that the narrative pushed in that nutso letter just happens to follow the line we heard JB was pushing to the family during the trial: that God will use Josh for a prison ministry if he's locked up. So whatshername says in the letter JB paid for, FF saved that guy from alcoholism, who sadly can't come forward himself with the story due to his death from COVID. That's our Josh; just a fabulous kind caring family man who's always helping others.

And, my favorite comment: "He had an Ashley Madison account, so he was helping hookers…".   

ETA: from what we heard during Joshgate II, he wasn't even helping sex workers. More like hurting them. I was about to call him a pig, but that would be an unwarranted insult to pigs everywhere. 

Edited by Jeeves
Spelling. It matters.
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10 hours ago, quarks said:

As per the current guidelines (which came into effect on March 14, 2022) this is incorrect. All federal inmates who are serving more than a year, but not serving a life sentence, regardless of the crime committed, are entitled to CGT credit, allowing them up to 54 days per year. 

If Josh receives a 10 year sentence, and receives full CGT credit, he would receive 540 days off his sentence - that is, about a year and a half.

You can read more about this at the federal website for the Bureau of Prisons:

https://www.bop.gov/inmates/fsa/faq.jsp

and here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/02/11/2022-02876/good-conduct-time-credit-under-the-first-step-act

Ah, my wishful thinking led me to miss the final rule and assume the earlier rule would hold! ....Always a mistake with regs that get disputed for a long time!.

No wonder this rule was so long debated. I'm in favor of more attention paid to good behavior for most people -- but, wow....interesting that they decided to do this in cases like these.. 

Edited by Churchhoney
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The length of the sentence Josh can expect hangs on two issues: 1) if the judge applies all the enhancements as related to the updated Protect Act, and 2) how he considers the past sexual abuse of Josh's victims.  Federal guidelines have increased sentencing for people with prior sex offense convictions.  And therein lies the rub.  Josh wasn't convicted but he confessed to the crimes. From a case law standard, this is really an interesting aspect.  I have no clue how the judge will rule on it.  If you see a sentence over 10 or 11 years, the Judge probably took the confession into consideration.  

Also, there is the issue of distribution.  The prosecution says that he was file sharing, which by nature is distributing.  This is a very liberal use of the term.  Normally, the judges I've known look at distribution as perv A sending an email to perv B with CP images attached.  Or sending a link to a cloud storage drive with images.  Depending on this Judge's view of distribution, the sentence could go up or down.

 The Federal guidelines for CSAM were recently revised, mainly because judges were giving lower sentences for people convicted of receipt, possession, AND Distribution.  I see many attempts to get rid of receipt/possession, or make both a mandatory minimum.  I'm happy that Congress realizes there is very little difference between the two charges.

From the Federal report regarding the guideline covering the distribution, receipt, and possession of child pornography, §2G2.2,:  2012 Child Pornography Report explained that by fiscal year 2010, four of the six enhancements in §2G2.2(b)—together accounting for 13 offense levels—applied to the typical non-production child pornography offender and thus failed to meaningfully distinguish between more culpable and less culpable offenders.  

Thus, across all non-production child pornography offense types, §2G2.2 fails to distinguish adequately between more and less severe offenders.

In fiscal year 2019, nearly all nonproduction child pornography offenders (99.0%) were sentenced to a term of imprisonment, with an average sentence of 103 months.48 Mirroring the seriousness of each non-production child pornography offense type as measured by §2G2.2, distribution offenders received the longest sentences, on average (135 months), followed by receipt (96 months) and possession (68 months) offenders.

A central theme of the Commission’s 2012 Child Pornography Report remains true today: the sentencing enhancements in §2G2.2 have not kept pace with technological advancements. Facilitated by technology, child pornography offenses increasingly involve images in great quantities and of a graphic nature, often depicting the youngest of victims. These factors are already accounted for in §2G2.2 by a series of enhancements that were initially added to target more serious offenses and more culpable offenders. However, the conduct covered by four of the six enhancements—accounting for a combined 13 offense levels—has become so ubiquitous that they now apply in the vast majority of cases sentenced under §2G2.2.

A 2021 report by the U.S. Sentencing Commission, cited in the hearings, stated that only 30 percent—less than a third—of non-production child pornography offenders received a sentence within the guideline range in the 2019 fiscal year. Almost 60 percent received a lesser sentence than called for by the guidelines.

This sort of reiterates what we've seen in court sentencing. Yes, there are enhancements to get harsher sentences for "really bad stuff" but yet, that doesn't seem to get harsher sentences.  I'm really looking forward to the Judge's reasoning for whatever sentence is given on Wednesday.

Edited by hathorlive
data is fundemental
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And another issue I've not seen much discussion on:  Duggar's download timeframe.  I've had defense attorneys say "it was only over a period of two years, following his divorce, that Mr. Scumbag engaged in this sad behavior".  

Josh's download period was over a couple of days, if I'm not mistaken?  Now, he could have just been getting started.  He might have engaged in downloading for years if not caught.  But there is a discussion about belonging to a CP community, i.e. interacting with pervs online in groups, etc.  And that engagement takes into consideration how long you've been downloading.  

I personally think one day is enough.  But it's something to consider, that the Judge might apply to the sentence in a deductive way.

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14 minutes ago, hathorlive said:

Josh's download period was over a couple of days, if I'm not mistaken? 

If this is actually the case how typically Josh Duggar of him.  He can't do anything right.  Thankfully.

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24 minutes ago, hathorlive said:

 The Federal guidelines for CSAM were recently revised, mainly because judges were giving lower sentences for people convicted of receipt, possession, AND Distribution.  I see many attempts to get rid of receipt/possession, or make both a mandatory minimum.  I'm happy that Congress realizes there is very little difference between the two charges.

I've never been able to figure out why these two were separate charges. I can't imagine a scenario in which receiving could exist without possessing and vice versa. (Well...maybe possessing if someone else received it and put it on the computer.) Whereas I can understand how producing and distributing are two very different actions.

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16 minutes ago, madpsych78 said:

I've never been able to figure out why these two were separate charges. I can't imagine a scenario in which receiving could exist without possessing and vice versa. (Well...maybe possessing if someone else received it and put it on the computer.) Whereas I can understand how producing and distributing are two very different actions.

I've had arguments with AUSA's who struggled to explain the difference.  They would very much like a case with emails that say "here is the cp you requested" in the subject line, to make it easier.  What's worse, one of the charges may not get any jail time, and the other does, if my reading of the guidelines is correct.  Either way, get rid of the language and stop trying to work around it and twist things to fit the convoluted definition.  If you have it on your computer, it's possession.  You can't possess something without receiving it.

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1 hour ago, hathorlive said:

Josh's download period was over a couple of days, if I'm not mistaken?

Forgive me but I have not read all prior posts. Probably the below has already been discussed?

To me the short window has always been the strongest piece for the defense. Was he just getting started or-  as they could have argued- he just stumbled across it as he was looking for other stuff. Don't get me wrong. I fully believe he had done this before. I believe he had a variety of "categories of interest" that he downloaded. He was not strictly CSAM but it was not accident that he downloaded the material.

But how much does the length of time and number of images actually factor into sentencing? I had been thinking 6-8 lately mainly because of the pattern of behavior established from the abuse of his sisters. But I'm not sure I can how the judge could go any higher.

Edited by Tuxcat
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Based on what everyone is saying I have decided to be happy with any sentence that guarantees Smuggar sits in prison for the full 5 years.  Anything longer than that will be cake.

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4 hours ago, crazy8s said:

I wonder if Hilaria is making the trip to sit next to Anna again...

Her son is injured so I think no.

But who knows? Maybe Justin will come too to flash the piece sign and giggle.

Edited by iwantcookies
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28 minutes ago, Tuxcat said:

Forgive me but I have not read all prior posts. Probably the below has already been discussed?

To me the short window has always been the strongest piece for the defense. Was he just getting started or-  as they could have argued- he just stumbled across it as he was looking for other stuff. Don't get me wrong. I fully believe he had done this before. I believe he had a variety of "categories of interest" that he downloaded. He was not strictly CSAM but it was not accident that he downloaded the material.

But how much does the length of time and number of images actually factor into sentencing? I had been thinking 6-8 lately mainly because of the pattern of behavior established from the abuse of his sisters. But I'm not sure I can how the judge could go any higher.

Number of images should be an enhancement.  However, the number of images/videos that Josh had was miniscule compared to the image count in most CP cases.  I have NO idea what they will do with the time issue.  I'm just saying that defense attorneys have always brought that up in sentencing hearings, to which I point out that there was only activity for x number of months because the computer had a new OS installed x number of months ago. 

Pervs will reinstall the OS, which doesn't do as much damage as you would think.  They use external encrypted drives, where I can see file names going to said drive but not content.  And the most sophisticated are those who use virtual machines to do their CP surfing and downloading, then they export the files to a thumb drive  and delete the virtual machine.  Then I have NO system artifacts that indicate illegal activity.  Actually, a lot of fraud crimes use virtual machines.  This is why I side eyed the prosecutor's "sophisticated computer user who took extraordinary means to download CP" argument.  Well, not really.  If he was that good, he wouldn't have been caught.  

24 minutes ago, SusanM said:

Based on what everyone is saying I have decided to be happy with any sentence that guarantees Smuggar sits in prison for the full 5 years.  Anything longer than that will be cake.

I honestly think he'll get around 10 years.  For me, that's a huge home run.  Anything more and I'll be ecstatic.  But the average US sentence for this, give or take similar circumstances, is about 8.5.  I can't do the math, but those are the numbers they give us at conferences, from people who DO do the math.

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4 hours ago, ginger90 said:

Have the exclusions changed? At one time the crime he has been found guilty of would have made him ineligible under disqualifying offenses.

I don't know what the situation was prior to 2018. But, as of 2018, and again now in 2022, the current guidelines at the official federal website for the Bureau of Prisons say nothing about the nature/type of crimes, only the length of the sentence, and state that these guidelines apply to all inmates. The only exclusions are for people serving life sentences and people serving sentences of less than one year. 

These are federal guidelines, not state guidelines. It's extremely possible that Arkansas, for instance, does not allow for time off for good behavior for anyone convicted of a CSAM crime. 

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17 minutes ago, quarks said:

I don't know what the situation was prior to 2018. But, as of 2018, and again now in 2022, the current guidelines at the official federal website for the Bureau of Prisons say nothing about the nature/type of crimes, only the length of the sentence, and state that these guidelines apply to all inmates. The only exclusions are for people serving life sentences and people serving sentences of less than one year. 

These are federal guidelines, not state guidelines. It's extremely possible that Arkansas, for instance, does not allow for time off for good behavior for anyone convicted of a CSAM crime. 

This is what I saw:

https://www.bop.gov/resources/fsa/time_credits_disqualifying_offenses.jsp

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2 hours ago, hathorlive said:

And another issue I've not seen much discussion on:  Duggar's download timeframe.  I've had defense attorneys say "it was only over a period of two years, following his divorce, that Mr. Scumbag engaged in this sad behavior".  

Josh's download period was over a couple of days, if I'm not mistaken?  Now, he could have just been getting started.  He might have engaged in downloading for years if not caught.  But there is a discussion about belonging to a CP community, i.e. interacting with pervs online in groups, etc.  And that engagement takes into consideration how long you've been downloading.  

I personally think one day is enough.  But it's something to consider, that the Judge might apply to the sentence in a deductive way.

If the duration of time he is proven to actively been downloading can be used as a mitigating factor, can the bifurcation of the hard drive in order to evade the monitoring software be used to demonstrate he was setting up a longer-term plan to go forward also?

31 minutes ago, quarks said:

I don't know what the situation was prior to 2018. But, as of 2018, and again now in 2022, the current guidelines at the official federal website for the Bureau of Prisons say nothing about the nature/type of crimes, only the length of the sentence, and state that these guidelines apply to all inmates. The only exclusions are for people serving life sentences and people serving sentences of less than one year. 

These are federal guidelines, not state guidelines. It's extremely possible that Arkansas, for instance, does not allow for time off for good behavior for anyone convicted of a CSAM crime. 

He was tried federally, so Arkansas laws do not apply regarding his sentencing, only the federal ones.

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28 minutes ago, ginger90 said:

Interesting, since although that page cites the 2018 law which the 2022 guidelines are supposedly following, the pages about the 2022 guidelines are pretty clear that the factors to be considered are the length of the sentence, not any disqualifying offenses.  

There's also the possibility that Josh's sentence could include both prison time and supervised release, which the feds discuss here:

https://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/authority-probation-supervised-release-conditions

I assume we'll hear more about that possibility tomorrow.

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Please tell me there will be at least some camera footage in the courtroom tomorrow!  I feel bad saying this but I really want to see Smuggar's face when he is sentenced.  Because honestly part of me still thinks he believes he's going to get a last minute reprieve and will be walking out a free man.

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1 minute ago, SusanM said:

Please tell me there will be at least some camera footage in the courtroom tomorrow!  I feel bad saying this but I really want to see Smuggar's face when he is sentenced.  Because honestly part of me still thinks he believes he's going to get a last minute reprieve and will be walking out a free man.

No cameras allowed, but we can see people's expressions when they leave the courthouse! 

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2 minutes ago, SusanM said:

Please tell me there will be at least some camera footage in the courtroom tomorrow!  I feel bad saying this but I really want to see Smuggar's face when he is sentenced.  Because honestly part of me still thinks he believes he's going to get a last minute reprieve and will be walking out a free man.

Me too. I want to see him in shackles and cuffs when he walks in and would love to see his face at sentencing. Unfortunately I think we'll only get a sketch. But maybe we'll see him crying as he exits the building.

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11 minutes ago, GeeGolly said:

Me too. I want to see him in shackles and cuffs when he walks in and would love to see his face at sentencing. Unfortunately I think we'll only get a sketch. But maybe we'll see him crying as he exits the building.

I think there's a secure back or garage entrance to the courthouse that they use when transporting persons who are in custody. Otherwise we would have seen FF being led out in cuffs after the verdict.  

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2 hours ago, hathorlive said:

And the most sophisticated are those who use virtual machines

Do you mean hacking other people's computers to do their dirty work?  If this is possible, now I'm even more terrified of being hacked.

All this past week, I thought the sentencing was today.  I was thinking today was the 25th.  I found out yesterday I had a whole additional day to wait.  What a disappointment.

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4 minutes ago, Gemma Violet said:

Do you mean hacking other people's computers to do their dirty work?  If this is possible, now I'm even more terrified of being hacked.

All this past week, I thought the sentencing was today.  I was thinking today was the 25th.  I found out yesterday I had a whole additional day to wait.  What a disappointment.

No, a virtual machine is a computer within your computer.  You set one up (the guest) using vm software and it runs inside your computer (the host).  You can turn it on and off and do things within the guest/vm system and those artifacts are not known to the Host machine.  So if Josh had created a vm within his HP computer, he could install any software, run any program and download any file and when the guest machine is off, the host machine has no idea what it was doing.  So you can use a VM to download CP, then delete the VM and all traces are gone.  Heck, I don't think many forensic examiners look for and mount vm's.  I do.  But you have to look for the VM files to see if its bootable.  If you delete that file, the activity is gone.

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1 minute ago, Teriacky said:

Start packing, Josh. You’re moving tomorrow!

LOL  It will be awhile before he moves.  There's a procedure to go through for the BoP to decide where to assign him and then transportation arrangements have to be made.  All the bureaucratic hoopla must be completed.  

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Today the court issued its Memorandum Opinion and Order denying the defense's post-trial motion for judgment of acquittal. It's here: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.arwd.62817/gov.uscourts.arwd.62817.156.0_2.pdf

It's nearly 30 pages long and I don't have time to read it right now. I did scan through the first six or seven pages. Warning: DO NOT start reading that part of the order if you don't want to see some references to the content of the CSAM - although they are made in passing, sort of. The issue under discussion at that point is the defense claim that Smuggar wasn't proven to have viewed the downloads. 

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WOACB interviewed Caleb Williams on Youtube.  I only watched bits and pieces as it's 50 minutes long.  I will say this--this guy is much calmer than most would be in his position.  I would be seething, but I saw no animosity in him.

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31 minutes ago, Jeeves said:

Today the court issued its Memorandum Opinion and Order denying the defense's post-trial motion for judgment of acquittal. It's here: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.arwd.62817/gov.uscourts.arwd.62817.156.0_2.pdf

It's nearly 30 pages long and I don't have time to read it right now. I did scan through the first six or seven pages. Warning: DO NOT start reading that part of the order if you don't want to see some references to the content of the CSAM - although they are made in passing, sort of. The issue under discussion at that point is the defense claim that Smuggar wasn't proven to have viewed the downloads. 

Descriptions of the images/videos begins on the bottom of page 3.  Pages 6 through 29 are clean, just a discussion of thumb nails and why they are important. There is a bit of language discussion sexual acts by minors but no details.

I love this judge's writing style.  From page 20: "Defense counsel is well aware that the sidebar conference was at least the third time the Court had addressed on the record the evidentiary foundation that would be required before alternative perpetrator evidence could be argued to the jury.  The defense team was not confused about this standard. Instead, they made the strategic decision not to call Mr. Williams to the stand because: (1) they knew they could not lay a nonspeculative foundation for his testimony, and (2) any such attempt to do so would invite the Government’s proffered rebuttal testimony."

The argument by defense that  "a new trial is warranted due to the Government’s failure to disclose certain demonstrative exhibits Mr. Fottrell used during his rebuttal testimony. The “exhibits” were screenshots Mr. Fottrell printed while working with Oracle VirtualBox, which was described as “a very popular piece of virtualization software.”"

Seriously?  Fotrell took the forensic image and mounted it in virtualization software.  You can do the same thing with freeware, and it's not the forensic experts job to do the work the defense expert should be doing for your side.  When I provide a findings disk to the defense, I don't go over it and explain the ramifications of the artifacts to them.  It's their job to hire an expert to do that.  Similiarly, I'll provide them access to a forensic image, but I don't run my software tools over it for the defense expert to look at.  She gets to do that all on her own. 

Edited by hathorlive
added more details.
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7 hours ago, SMama said:

Anna’s smugness in that picture irritates me to no end. Karma is a bitch, Anna, and now your constant companion. There’s no redemption tour for the monster you married and still support. You’ll never become Michelle 2.0. The only talking heads will be you talking to the mirror. Your children will be pitied because of the heinous crime their father committed, and because their mother is full of hate. Want to talk about sins of the father, Anna? Go ahead, try that smug look tomorrow as you leave court. Enjoy obscurity you hateful bitch. 

There is always Love After Lockup.  I hope the mofo gets the max.

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