Josh & Anna Smuggar: A Series of Unfortunate Events

[SMama]

9 minutes ago, emmawoodhouse said:

Ignorance is bliss, eh Boob? 🙄

I’m sure he kept everyone else in the dark. That statement they released stating they were not aware of anyone in their home being under investigation while technically accurate was misleading AF. May JB’s fortune run out soon and serious consequences come his way.

[Cinnabon]

2 hours ago, Gemma Violet said:

Caleb Williams has made a statement:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obtrkv_DLMg

He was all over the Duggar snark Reddit board last night, pretending that he was someone else, lol. He continues to hold on to the believe that statutory rape is not the same as “real” rape. Needless to say, the posters there schooled him and gave him hell. He then proceeded to delete almost all of his posts. Josh and his lawyers were absolutely in the wrong for trying to blame Caleb for the CP downloads, but he’s still a clueless misogynist. He’s posting all over the place (Reddit, Twitter, YouTube) trying to get people to sympathize with him and tell him what he wants to hear .

13 minutes ago, emmawoodhouse said:

This one holds up!

Edited May 23, 2022 by Cinnabon

[GeeGolly]

Josh has been a grown ass adult for over a decade. IMO, he and he alone is responsible for his actions. 

One full day and then Josh, and we, learn his fate.

[SusanM]

I admit I am enjoying the idea that Smuggar must be hoping that he only gets 5 years.  Like everyone posting here I sincerely hope he gets more than that but even 5 years in a federal pen is pretty awful to contemplate.  He can't be getting much sleep right now.

[ginger90]

I want him to get 19 years. Just me?

[SMama]

Just now, ginger90 said:

I want him to get 19 years. Just me?

I do but realize it’s almost impossible. Emily Baker’s  (hope I got her name right) educated guess is 8-12, and she said she’d be thrilled with 12. Any amount of time behind bars as a convicted sexual offender is good in my book. And the way the media inserts the FF even in an article about Lawson’s wedding means JB can no longer control the narrative, can’t sweep things under the rug. He’s collateral damage and I’m here for it. No amount of carefully scripted PR campaign will ever remove the stain and stench that is the FF, and JB’s and Michelle’s complicity,  to the detriment of their daughters.

[libgirl2]

7 minutes ago, ginger90 said:

I want him to get 19 years. Just me?

I would love life but the law is the law. I hope he gets 10+

[irisheyes]

1 hour ago, CandyXmasTree said:

Can we skip tomorrow and just go to Wednesday?

Wednesday is the last day of school for me, so I’m doubly okay with getting there quicker. 😀

[sagittarius sue]

43 minutes ago, ginger90 said:

I want him to get 19 years. Just me?

I'd love it too, but I think it's too good to expect.  Not only for Josh, but the almost certainty that there would be no more M kids, and the baby would be past 19.

[Ljohnson1987]

Josh will have to register as a sex offender when he's released from prison, right?

[merylinkid]

14 minutes ago, hathorlive said:

To say that one person deserves double the normal sentence, because we think he's a horrible person, is wrong.  And it's against the very foundation of the American legal system.

Yes.   We may despite Josh and his family for his hypocrisy.   But should he get more time than someone else who committed the same crime?   Isn't the other person just as heinous?  Might that other person also have kids under 18 in the house that "hopefully will be grown and gone when the felon gets out?"   Are the M kids deserving of MORE protection that those hypothetical other kids?

I mean I wish there were stricter sentences for CSAM.   So that 20 wasn't the tops for actually MAKING THE CRAP.   But that's where we are now.   So anything above 5 and I am happy.  I'm just glad he is convicted.   And the repercussions for the rest of the family.   No more show.   No more having them shoved in our faces as such a good wholesome family.   

[ginger90]

Of course the sentence should be fair and appropriate. Good grief, 19 is a number we have heard over and over, and she gave birth to all of them, etc.. That’s why I said that.

[Rabbittron]

My mom has her churches prayer circle praying that he Is sentenced to the Englewood Prison so they can go drive up and down the street giving him the finger and yelling at him about if he is enjoying his Colorado vacation. 

[Chicklet]

The problem is systemic- SBC just got hammered over their covering up and accepting sexual abuse of parishioners by the leadership. The bleed over into ILBP and other offshoots had to be there. We can get away with this, we are bullet-proof because Jesus was their mindset. So they don't take seriously "don't sin anymore" obviously.

Men with absolute power run amok. Boob believes he's an absolute ruler- him and King James. So his golden boy learned at his feet.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Chicklet
It's been a week sorry

[Westiepeach]

I think ~ and this is just my own opinion ~ is ANY amount of time spent in a Federal prison will be hell for him. And I am not sad about it. Federal prison will not be the relative cakewalk that jail has been for him. I will be happy with any time he has to spend in prison. Although, the higher the number the better. He is a sissy boy ~ he will fold under the pressure.

[SusanM]

5 minutes ago, Westiepeach said:

He is a sissy boy ~ he will fold under the pressure

He's also a bully who has always been able to push others around.  But only those who can't fight back.  For at least 5 years he's not going to be surrounded by girls and women who have to take his crap.  He's in for a rough ride.  Good.

[Rabbittron]

5 minutes ago, Westiepeach said:

I think ~ and this is just my own opinion ~ is ANY amount of time spent in a Federal prison will be hell for him. And I am not sad about it. Federal prison will not be the relative cakewalk that jail has been for him. I will be happy with any time he has to spend in prison. Although, the higher the number the better. He is a sissy boy ~ he will fold under the pressure.

I bet that he will love being in federal prison because he will not have any cares in the world ie family problems. All he would have to do is fake it which is  very easy for him to do. 

[Zella]

Regarding comparing other sentences the judge has given out, I am not really sure it is makes sense to compare the sentence given for a plea deal (which my understanding is most of the other cases this judge has presided over for CSAM) and one where it actually went to trial and then say more prison time for the latter is being unfair. A plea deal implies some degree of, if not remorse, token acceptance of the fact the offender has committed the crime on the offender's part, and I could also see the enhancements perhaps not being used as strictly if the person is agreeing to a plea since you need some incentive for doing that versus taking it to trial. 

I'm usually pretty uptight when people get selective about which of our rights people are entitled to once accused/convicted (I am never okay with insinuating only guilty people ask for attorneys or plead the fifth), but I don't think it is a miscarriage of justice for Josh to receive more time than the judge's other cases when he didn't take a plea deal and when the enhancements add up to the point that the prosecutors could have asked for 30 years and were only capped at 20. That's Josh's fault for being foolish enough to think his weak-ass case was worth going through rather than taking the deal. And it's also Josh's fault rallying all these other idiots to double-down on this fantasy that he is wrongly accused and innocent of something he is clearly guilty of and diminishing how heinous this crime is in their emptyheaded defenses of him.

if the book gets thrown at him with more time than other cases the judge has ruled on, well, in the parlance of the internet: play stupid games, win stupid prizes--or fuck around and find out. 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Zella

[Scout Finch]

3 hours ago, emmawoodhouse said:

My town! I was heavily involved in the local music scene at that time.

[sagittarius sue]

1 hour ago, Ljohnson1987 said:

Josh will have to register as a sex offender when he's released from prison, right?

Yes, I don't think he'd be a Level 3 offender, probably a Level 2.

[emmawoodhouse]

Here are the sex offender levels for Arkansas.

[Rabbittron]

12 minutes ago, sagittarius sue said:

Yes, I don't think he'd be a Level 3 offender, probably a Level 2.

I think that he will be a level 1.

[crazycatlady58]

18 minutes ago, Rabbittron said:

I think that he will be a level 1.

Maybe level 2? He does have a prior history of offending. I think the community has been notified. 

[Rabbittron]

16 minutes ago, crazycatlady58 said:

Maybe level 2? He does have a prior history of offending. I think the community has been notified. 

I  have checked the sex offender registry and he isn't on it. He does have prior things but he wasn't charged for it  .

Edited May 24, 2022 by Rabbittron

[BetyBee]

5 hours ago, GeeGolly said:

Josh has been a grown ass adult for over a decade. IMO, he and he alone is responsible for his actions. 

One full day and then Josh, and we, learn his fate.

When it comes to our anticipation, we're like kids counting the days until Christmas!

[Zella]

I don't think the molestations count as prior history for a sex offender registry since he was never charged or convicted for those crimes. 

[emmawoodhouse]

If I was to guess, I'd go level 1. I don't know how/if the molestations can be considered. 

[quarks]

My prediction is a sentence of 8 to 12 years, actual prison time 6 to 10 years, and the next crime/scandal in 10 to 12 years.

I hope I am wrong. But this guy has been punished before. It has not changed anything. Based on the letters sent in by the defense, the local jail also hasn't changed anything. He does not seem to be seeking any sort of help. At best this may give him the opportunity to pick up an associates or bachelors degree, or possibly some sort of trade skill, like welding or something.  Otherwise, I don't think that federal prison will change him for the better.

I wish I could be more optimistic.

[emmawoodhouse]

I thought there was no time off for good behavior if you were involved in CSAM crimes.

[Westiepeach]

Does his vacation at the Reber's spare bedroom count as time served? Or just the actual jail time?

[Ohiopirate02]

6 minutes ago, emmawoodhouse said:

I thought there was no time off for good behavior if you were involved in CSAM crimes.

There's no parole in federal prisons, but they do use their own math.  A 10 year prison sentence is not ten calendar years.  They have their own formula that they calculate upon sentencing.  The months Josh has spent in the county jail will be calculated and count as part of his sentence.  

[GeeGolly]

3 hours ago, Zella said:

Regarding comparing other sentences the judge has given out, I am not really sure it is makes sense to compare the sentence given for a plea deal (which my understanding is most of the other cases this judge has presided over for CSAM) and one where it actually went to trial and then say more prison time for the latter is being unfair. A plea deal implies some degree of, if not remorse, token acceptance of the fact the offender has committed the crime on the offender's part, and I could also see the enhancements perhaps not being used as strictly if the person is agreeing to a plea since you need some incentive for doing that versus taking it to trial. 

I'm usually pretty uptight when people get selective about which of our rights people are entitled to once accused/convicted (I am never okay with insinuating only guilty people ask for attorneys or plead the fifth), but I don't think it is a miscarriage of justice for Josh to receive more time than the judge's other cases when he didn't take a plea deal and when the enhancements add up to the point that the prosecutors could have asked for 30 years and were only capped at 20. That's Josh's fault for being foolish enough to think his weak-ass case was worth going through rather than taking the deal. And it's also Josh's fault rallying all these other idiots to double-down on this fantasy that he is wrongly accused and innocent of something he is clearly guilty of and diminishing how heinous this crime is in their emptyheaded defenses of him.

if the book gets thrown at him with more time than other cases the judge has ruled on, well, in the parlance of the internet: play stupid games, win stupid prizes--or fuck around and find out. 

Exactly.

Have the other cases that went to trial asked for the max as well? If the enhancers are there, they're there. It would seem to me the judge would be lenient to sentence Josh well below what the enhancers call for and from what I've seen thus far with Josh's trial, this judge seems to be fair, but not lenient.

[emmawoodhouse]

1 minute ago, Ohiopirate02 said:

There's no parole in federal prisons, but they do use their own math.  A 10 year prison sentence is not ten calendar years.  They have their own formula that they calculate upon sentencing.  The months Josh has spent in the county jail will be calculated and count as part of his sentence.  

I get that. I was responding to the post that shaved off two years, far more than was spent in the county jail.

[iwantcookies]

I’m thinking he will spend 10 years tops in jail 

[Zella]

32 minutes ago, Westiepeach said:

Does his vacation at the Reber's spare bedroom count as time served? Or just the actual jail time?

He was out on bond for then and not under house arrest, so I do not believe that will factor into his time served like his stint in the county pokey for the past five months. 

[CherryMalotte]

I'm bringing the breakfast casserole to this if somebody else gets the cinnamon rolls.  

My thinking is six to eight years, with hope for a high end of ten.   

[quarks]

1 hour ago, emmawoodhouse said:

I thought there was no time off for good behavior if you were involved in CSAM crimes.

As per the current guidelines (which came into effect on March 14, 2022) this is incorrect. All federal inmates who are serving more than a year, but not serving a life sentence, regardless of the crime committed, are entitled to CGT credit, allowing them up to 54 days per year. 

If Josh receives a 10 year sentence, and receives full CGT credit, he would receive 540 days off his sentence - that is, about a year and a half.

You can read more about this at the federal website for the Bureau of Prisons:

https://www.bop.gov/inmates/fsa/faq.jsp

and here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/02/11/2022-02876/good-conduct-time-credit-under-the-first-step-act

[anna0852]

Tomorrow is the last day the FF can delude himself that he's going home. I wouldn't be surprised to find out he genuinely believes he'll be freed on Wednesday. 

[emmawoodhouse]

Will Smuggar be allowed to wear the suit he wore to jail, or will he wear an orange jumpsuit and handcuffs to court? 

Edited May 24, 2022 by emmawoodhouse

[SMama]

4 minutes ago, emmawoodhouse said:

Will Smuggar be allowed to wear the suit he wore to jail, or will he wear an orange jumpsuit and handcuffs? 

I think once sentenced it’s jail jumpsuit. If that is the case JB will lose his shit and say he won’t allow it. 

[LilJen]

On 5/15/2022 at 11:25 PM, iwantcookies said:

https://www.theashleysrealityroundup.com/2022/05/15/josh-duggar-reportedly-verbally-threatened-abused-by-fellow-inmate-duggar-neighbor-claims-inmates-are-stunned-by-joshs-character-convinced-of-his-innocence/

Oh cry me a river Joshua!

“ they were so stunned by Josh’s character that they are convinced of his innocence,” she continued.”

Laughing my ass off here.

[Westiepeach]

7 hours ago, emmawoodhouse said:

Will Smuggar be allowed to wear the suit he wore to jail, or will he wear an orange jumpsuit and handcuffs to court? 

Anna is going to lose her sh!t. She's the one to keep our eyes on.

[ginger90]

8 hours ago, quarks said:

As per the current guidelines (which came into effect on March 14, 2022) this is incorrect. All federal inmates who are serving more than a year, but not serving a life sentence, regardless of the crime committed, are entitled to CGT credit, allowing them up to 54 days per year. 

If Josh receives a 10 year sentence, and receives full CGT credit, he would receive 540 days off his sentence - that is, about a year and a half.

You can read more about this at the federal website for the Bureau of Prisons:

https://www.bop.gov/inmates/fsa/faq.jsp

and here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/02/11/2022-02876/good-conduct-time-credit-under-the-first-step-act

Have the exclusions changed? At one time the crime he has been found guilty of would have made him ineligible under disqualifying offenses.

Edited May 24, 2022 by ginger90

[merylinkid]

Tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow.   the sun'll come out tomorrow, betcha bottom dollar that tomorrow we'll see FF sentenced  ....

I do wonder if it is starting to sink in that this is really happening and that he is not going to get sent to "jesus jail" this time.

Edited May 24, 2022 by merylinkid

[crazy8s]

I wonder if Hilaria is making the trip to sit next to Anna again...

[Minivanessa]

2 hours ago, LilJen said:

“ they were so stunned by Josh’s character that they are convinced of his innocence,” she continued.”

Laughing my ass off here.

Ain't that great??

I re-read that article just now. I'd skimmed through it before. It was worth a better look. Lots of laughs indeed. I ❤️ how they captioned those photos. So snarky! 

It hit me that the narrative pushed in that nutso letter just happens to follow the line we heard JB was pushing to the family during the trial: that God will use Josh for a prison ministry if he's locked up. So whatshername says in the letter JB paid for, FF saved that guy from alcoholism, who sadly can't come forward himself with the story due to his death from COVID. That's our Josh; just a fabulous kind caring family man who's always helping others.

And, my favorite comment: "He had an Ashley Madison account, so he was helping hookers…".   

ETA: from what we heard during Joshgate II, he wasn't even helping sex workers. More like hurting them. I was about to call him a pig, but that would be an unwarranted insult to pigs everywhere. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Jeeves
Spelling. It matters.

[ginger90]

[SMama]

1 hour ago, ginger90 said:

Anna’s smugness in that picture irritates me to no end. Karma is a bitch, Anna, and now your constant companion. There’s no redemption tour for the monster you married and still support. You’ll never become Michelle 2.0. The only talking heads will be you talking to the mirror. Your children will be pitied because of the heinous crime their father committed, and because their mother is full of hate. Want to talk about sins of the father, Anna? Go ahead, try that smug look tomorrow as you leave court. Enjoy obscurity you hateful bitch. 

[Churchhoney]

10 hours ago, quarks said:

As per the current guidelines (which came into effect on March 14, 2022) this is incorrect. All federal inmates who are serving more than a year, but not serving a life sentence, regardless of the crime committed, are entitled to CGT credit, allowing them up to 54 days per year. 

If Josh receives a 10 year sentence, and receives full CGT credit, he would receive 540 days off his sentence - that is, about a year and a half.

You can read more about this at the federal website for the Bureau of Prisons:

https://www.bop.gov/inmates/fsa/faq.jsp

and here:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/02/11/2022-02876/good-conduct-time-credit-under-the-first-step-act

Ah, my wishful thinking led me to miss the final rule and assume the earlier rule would hold! ....Always a mistake with regs that get disputed for a long time!.

No wonder this rule was so long debated. I'm in favor of more attention paid to good behavior for most people -- but, wow....interesting that they decided to do this in cases like these.. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Churchhoney

[hathorlive]

The length of the sentence Josh can expect hangs on two issues: 1) if the judge applies all the enhancements as related to the updated Protect Act, and 2) how he considers the past sexual abuse of Josh's victims.  Federal guidelines have increased sentencing for people with prior sex offense convictions.  And therein lies the rub.  Josh wasn't convicted but he confessed to the crimes. From a case law standard, this is really an interesting aspect.  I have no clue how the judge will rule on it.  If you see a sentence over 10 or 11 years, the Judge probably took the confession into consideration.  

Also, there is the issue of distribution.  The prosecution says that he was file sharing, which by nature is distributing.  This is a very liberal use of the term.  Normally, the judges I've known look at distribution as perv A sending an email to perv B with CP images attached.  Or sending a link to a cloud storage drive with images.  Depending on this Judge's view of distribution, the sentence could go up or down.

 The Federal guidelines for CSAM were recently revised, mainly because judges were giving lower sentences for people convicted of receipt, possession, AND Distribution.  I see many attempts to get rid of receipt/possession, or make both a mandatory minimum.  I'm happy that Congress realizes there is very little difference between the two charges.

From the Federal report regarding the guideline covering the distribution, receipt, and possession of child pornography, §2G2.2,:  2012 Child Pornography Report explained that by fiscal year 2010, four of the six enhancements in §2G2.2(b)—together accounting for 13 offense levels—applied to the typical non-production child pornography offender and thus failed to meaningfully distinguish between more culpable and less culpable offenders.  

Thus, across all non-production child pornography offense types, §2G2.2 fails to distinguish adequately between more and less severe offenders.

In fiscal year 2019, nearly all nonproduction child pornography offenders (99.0%) were sentenced to a term of imprisonment, with an average sentence of 103 months.48 Mirroring the seriousness of each non-production child pornography offense type as measured by §2G2.2, distribution offenders received the longest sentences, on average (135 months), followed by receipt (96 months) and possession (68 months) offenders.

A central theme of the Commission’s 2012 Child Pornography Report remains true today: the sentencing enhancements in §2G2.2 have not kept pace with technological advancements. Facilitated by technology, child pornography offenses increasingly involve images in great quantities and of a graphic nature, often depicting the youngest of victims. These factors are already accounted for in §2G2.2 by a series of enhancements that were initially added to target more serious offenses and more culpable offenders. However, the conduct covered by four of the six enhancements—accounting for a combined 13 offense levels—has become so ubiquitous that they now apply in the vast majority of cases sentenced under §2G2.2.

A 2021 report by the U.S. Sentencing Commission, cited in the hearings, stated that only 30 percent—less than a third—of non-production child pornography offenders received a sentence within the guideline range in the 2019 fiscal year. Almost 60 percent received a lesser sentence than called for by the guidelines.

This sort of reiterates what we've seen in court sentencing. Yes, there are enhancements to get harsher sentences for "really bad stuff" but yet, that doesn't seem to get harsher sentences.  I'm really looking forward to the Judge's reasoning for whatever sentence is given on Wednesday.

Edited May 24, 2022 by hathorlive
data is fundemental