S29.E13: Let's Make A Move

[pfk505]

Yes I have, there's a pair in my family.  I guarantee you they've been apart more than a couple of days, and do not spend every waking hour bickering, yelling, and swearing at each other. 

 

Well far be it from me to paint all identical twins with the same brush, but I'm sure 95% of the bickering can be put down to TAR stresses and editing.  Check out their social media and you'll find they seem to be your typical "attached at the hip" brand of identical twins.  The two sets I've known have been a lot like that.  And if you've ever seen a Survivor "family visit" episode you'll find that you don't have to be an identical twin to fall utterly to pieces at the prospect of being away from your girlfriend/boyfriend/mom/aunt/dog for a whole 30-odd days.

Hi! Self-righteous whiner here!!  I probably didn't post back then about the show, but I'm allowed to disagree with your thoughts on their behavior on the race without being disparaged.  Just my opinion.

 

Its a raaaaaaaace! 

[pennben]

weird double post

Edited December 11, 2014 by pennben

[Guest]

Jon is like the anti-Russell.  Russell put all his energy into making it to FTC, but kept landing there with zero chance of getting jury votes.  Jon focused entirely on FTC-- who to go with, what to say, who to frame-- when he should've spent more mental energy on getting himself there.  

 

Since Jon was plotting FTC talking points against Natalie, does that suggest he and Jac were planning on taking her to FTC?  

[pennben]

 

Its a raaaaaaaace!

 

I'm aware of that.  I still get to have my opinion, even if you don't like it.

[pennben]

 

Since Jon was plotting FTC talking points against Natalie, does that suggest he and Jac were planning on taking her to FTC?

 

I've been wondering about that as well Winston9.  I can't decide if that was the conclusion we should reach or if that was how they were deciding to answer any question Natalie had at jury to whichever of them was answering questions from the jury about why they voted her out. 

 

It was an interesting line, for sure.

Edited December 11, 2014 by pennben

[GaT]

I'm glad the blindside worked just because Jon was just oblivious. When Jacyln mentioned the possibility that Natalie voted for Alec on purpose, he wouldn't even consider it. He was so wrapped up in his own superiority, he couldn't see what was in front of his face.

[Cutty]

I didn't read his bio but I would wager that Jon hasn't watched many seasons of Survivor. You have to remember that the people who are recruited are only given latest season to watch and that's it. You can give Natalie credit for her social game and working that relationship, but I can't believe someone who is a fan of this show could be that gullible. 

 

It seems to me that Jon is a very spiritual person and he thought it was his destiny to win the game. Once again, God doesn't care who wins Survivor.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Cutty

[Turtle]

I think that J&J might have figured Nat was their best choice to take to a F3.  They've been wanting to get rid of Keith for a while, and I doubt they would want to go to finals with a member of the only other couple to make it far in the game.  If Missy or Baylor goes but the other stays, the one at Ponderosa surely would be campaigning for the other, and maybe against J&J, so it's theoretically best for J&J if both Missy and Baylor leave before F3.  Of course, I think it was dumb of J&J to plan on getting to F3 together; they're no Rob & Amber, and it probably serves them better (as a couple) to have one of them on the jury and one in the finals than have both in the finals.  Of course, I doubt Jaclyn is getting to the finals.  And I seriously doubt that Jon will have any influence on the jury.  I think we're looking at a Nat, Keith, Baylor F3 (totally unspoiled, just guessing), and I am surprised by how okay with that I am.

 

But I still wish Jeremy was around.  

[EverCat]

Jon proved (once again) early on this episode that he is terrible at reading people and terrible at strategy.  Working it so that J&J are back at camp alone together ranks up there with the worst gameplay ever.  Jac is his one sure ally, and he left Baylor and Missy to strategize with Keith, and Nat possibly to find an idol.   Dumb dumb dumb.

 

 (Speaking of, I died when someone tonight said "Did Alec vote for himself?")  I think Nat has a very good chance to win against Keith.  I think her chances are better with Baylor/ Missy, though.

I was surprised that Jon didn't give his reward spot to Jaclyn.

[pennben]

 

Missy did not choose Jon over her daughter.  Just the opposite.  She knew the plan to blindside Jon, and went along with it.  All she had to to was tell Jon the real plan.  instead she stayed silent, and still kept true to her pledge to not vote Jon out.

 

A technicality, but one she could live with.

 

I agree.  But what an interesting dynamic we saw there in that conversation.  I mean, I assume before the show started Missy and Baylor pledged to each other that they would be one team and they were going to find a way to win:  mom and daughter, unbreakable force.  And then, Missy is explaining to Baylor why she can't vote against Jon, even though Baylor is explaining to Missy that they can't win against Jon.  I feel like that was an uncomfortable insight into their real life, reinforced with Baylor's confession paraphrasing now:  here we go again.

 

Interesting stuff.

Edited December 11, 2014 by pennben

[Turtle]

I was surprised that Jon didn't give his reward spot to Jaclyn.

 

That would have been smarter.  Or at least less dumb.  He should have kept the reward and gone with Missy and Keith.  He could have worked them both to get out Nat, and set himself up to work Keith to go after Missy and Baylor after that, leaving a J&J and Keith F3.  Or set up a F4 with Missy and Baylor, with an agreement that all bets are off at F4.  (This all assumes, of course, that Jon has any idea how to strategize...)  Instead?  He gave people an opportunity to scheme against him, while he and his only assured ally were alone at camp.  He's such a dummy.  

[bluebonnet]

Has Natalie received a single vote this season?  Depending on who she takes with her to the end, she may be able to secure every vote for the win and have played a technically perfect game.  

[cooksdelight]

Did Keith finally manage to control his mouth and not ruin a plan at tribal??

I know! I was holding my breath every time the camera, or Probst, looked his way. Natalie managed to do what his guy alliance never could.

[Cigale]

I wish they had showed us more of this 'bratty' Baylor that the players keep talking about.  I still can't see her as bratty.  Immature maybe, but only because she's young.  Other than that, she's been a fairly decentish player.  She's not out there making up the big strategy, but she's definitely made up her own mind about things when presented with something.  She's been doing that from the start.

Yeah, she's young, but didn't she say that she was the one who supported her mother through the 3 divorces? I think I believe her...

[millennium]

What if Jon asked Jaclyn to hold his immunity idol for him as a precaution just in case, and nobody knows?   That way she could have handed it to him during Tribal if it became necessary, and in the event he didn't use it but and got voted off (as she feared), then she would have it.

 

You have to respect the strategy that took Jon down.   Count me among those who think Natalie should win for that move alone.

 

Boy, was Jon full of himself.   What exactly did he say when talking about Natalie's Alec "blunder?"  "I just have to think that God makes everything happens for a reason, and this will somehow get me closer to winning" or some horse-puckey like that.   In other words, Jon believed there was a divine plan in motion to anoint him the winner.

 

You know, most people don't know how to really enjoy a blindside.   They don't realize there are multiple layers of comeuppance.   You have to really savor it.   Swish it around in your mouth awhile.   Only then can you truly appreciate it when a blowhard gets handed his walking papers.

Edited December 11, 2014 by millennium

[txvoodoo]

Boy, was Jon full of himself.   What exactly did he say when talking about Natalie's Alec "blunder?"  "I just have to think that God makes everything happens for a reason, and this will somehow get me closer to winning" or some horse-puckey like that.   In other words, Jon believed there was a divine plan in motion to anoint him the winner.

 

You need to watch his arrival at Ponderosa, and his little speech there. He's mad at Missy for telling him to trust God & by extension, her. He really thought that trusting in god would mean God would make sure he won.

 

I do so love when people think their God would favor them over another fellow believer - it makes their God seem like some kind of bargainer, or auctioneer: "you prayed best, YOU win! I'll just ignore the other 15 people and their prayers." That's a whole new level of entitlement. 

[Nashville]

So who voted for Jon in the second round?  Missy said categorically that she would not vote for him, so it had to be Baylor, but she voted for Jaclyn first time.

  

Natalie wants Jon out bad, but there's a problem - Jon picked up an immunity idol on Exile which he could play at TC. Next best option would be Jaclyn, to cripple Jon strategically, but same problem - Jon could give his idol to Jaclyn. So - how to guarantee one of them goes home? Hmmm....

This was Natalie's plan to blindside Jon - or, at the least, severely handicap his game:

• Nat knew Jon wanted Keith out because of Keith's success at Immunity challenges, so she fake-agreed with J&J to vote out Keith. That guarantees two votes against Keith - J&J's.
• Nat coordinates with Missy and Baylor for both of them to vote out Jaclyn - two votes there.
• Nat and Keith agree to cast votes against Jon - another two votes.

Any way you look at it, this guarantees a tie vote at TC under all eventualities:

• Jon plays the idol for himself: results in a 2-way tie between Jaclyn and Keith, and Jaclyn gets voted out in the 2nd round of votes.
• Jon gives Jaclyn the idol to play: results in a 2-way tie between Jon and Keith, and Jon gets booted in the 2nd round of votes.
• Jon doesn't play the idol at all: results in a 3-way tie between Jon, Jaclyn and Keith, and Jon gets voted out in the 2nd round of votes. Which is what happened.

Option 2 was actually the riskiest of the three for Natalie because of Missy's steadfast refusal to write down Jon's name. If Missy had persisted through the second round of votes, the result would be another 2-2 tie (Nat and Baylor voting for Jon, against Jaclyn and Missy voting for Keith). At this point Jon and Keith would be drawing rocks out of a bag, which introduces a chance element out of the control of Natalie or anybody else - Keith could pull the black rock just as easily as Jon.

Fortunately for Nat, Jon trusted her and went with Option 3. Baylor's vote against Jon was simply the continuation of that plan.

I'm glad the blindside worked just because Jon was just oblivious. When Jacyln mentioned the possibility that Natalie voted for Alec on purpose, he wouldn't even consider it. He was so wrapped up in his own superiority, he couldn't see what was in front of his face.

I think it was more naive trust than narcissism which led to the demise of Jon's game - but YMMV.

[Mooncake76]

I know! I was holding my breath every time the camera, or Probst, looked his way. Natalie managed to do what his guy alliance never could.

 

That's because she coached Keith on how to act at TC.  Reed overestimated Keith's ability to dissemble.    

 

I was on the fence about Natalie's move last week to oust Alec over Keith, but it turns out that it was probably the right move;  it would have been harder for her to convince Alec to go along with her plans.  

[cooksdelight]

Yeah, I'm not sure that even Natalie has the patience to tell Alec 50 times who to vote for.

[Lingo]

Could history, in a way, repeat itself?  When the Twinnies played TAR the first time, they got fourth place.  The second time, they got last place.  On Survivor, Nadiya got last place.  Could Natalie end up in fourth place?

 

Because if the others are smart, arguably they'll try to get Natalie out in 4th place. She's got the idol so she automatically makes it to F4, so probably they should vote out Keith next, and then the other 3 girls should vote out Natalie. Natalie probably needs to win that final IC.

 

There's just one thing, though.  Natalie that been playing so stealthily that nobody except Baylor, and Keith a little bit, really knows about her scheming, and so far nobody's giving her much credit. Jon wanted to take the credit for playing his first idol. Missy gave Baylor the credit for finding Natalie's idol.  And both of them assumed that Natalie voted for Alec by accident.  And now I see in Jon's Ponderosa video that Jon and Alec, and possibly the other jury members too, think that Missy is the women's ringleader and orchestrated Jon's ouster.  Plus, Natalie was left out of the plan to vote off Jeremy, so that's a point against her.  If she makes it to F3, will she be able to convince the jury that they should vote for her instead of Missy?

 

On the other hand, at least Reed and Jon seem to be pissed at Missy, and maybe Jeremy too, for being the ringleader they think she is.  Maybe that will work in Natalie's favor.

 

So it's kind of hard to predict how this jury will vote.  None of the players who are left have a slam-dunk in the F3 as far as I can see.  Jaclyn can argue that she and Jon were in the middle of most of the votes.  Keith is kind of likeable and is a challenge contender.  Natalie's won challenges and orchestrated votes, but she'll have to convince the jury of that, and they may hold her TAR background against her.  The jury may begrudgingly consider Missy a power broker.  Baylor is probably the smallest threat, but she deserves some credit for working independently of her mom, and convincing her mom to switch her vote.

 

To sum up, Keith and Natalie may seem like no-brainers to vote off, but the players and jury might not see it that way.

(And on top of that, Missi and Baylor may decide that one of them should be on the jury.)

[Nashville]

She's got the idol so she automatically makes it to F4

Only if she plays it when she needs to - which sure as hell isn't a given in this game, considering two idols have already been carried to Ponderosa.

There's just one thing, though. Natalie that been playing so stealthily that nobody except Baylor, and Keith a little bit, really knows about her scheming, and so far nobody's giving her much credit.

How do you figure? What person in the camp doesn't know tonight's blindside was Natalie's plan? Keith, Missy and Baylor know it for certain, considering they all had key roles to play in it. Jaclyn was already suspicious of Nat, and I'd be totally amazed if tonight's vote didn't cement that suspicion into certainty.

Yes, Natalie engineered a stellar blindside; it may be a Pyrrhic victory for her, though, as I halfway suspect her plan's success may have put a target on her back the size of the Empire State Building. Think about it; Nat just coordinated an entire Tribe to pull off what is so far the single biggest strategic play of the season. Following that, who in their right mind would want Nat sitting beside them at FTC?

Natalie's idol is good for one play. After that I suspect she better get on an immunity tear, else her torch is getting snuffed at first opportunity.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Nashville

[txvoodoo]

There's just one thing, though.  Natalie that been playing so stealthily that nobody except Baylor, and Keith a little bit, really knows about her scheming, and so far nobody's giving her much credit. Jon wanted to take the credit for playing his first idol. Missy gave Baylor the credit for finding Natalie's idol.  And both of them assumed that Natalie voted for Alec by accident.  And now I see in Jon's Ponderosa video that Jon and Alec, and possibly the other jury members too, think that Missy is the women's ringleader and orchestrated Jon's ouster.  Plus, Natalie was left out of the plan to vote off Jeremy, so that's a point against her.  If she makes it to F3, will she be able to convince the jury that they should vote for her instead of Missy?

 

......

On the other hand, at least Reed and Jon seem to be pissed at Missy, and maybe Jeremy too, for being the ringleader they think she is.  Maybe that will work in Natalie's favor.

....

So it's kind of hard to predict how this jury will vote.  None of the players who are left have a slam-dunk in the F3 as far as I can see.  Jaclyn can argue that she and Jon were in the middle of most of the votes.  Keith is kind of likeable and is a challenge contender.  Natalie's won challenges and orchestrated votes, but she'll have to convince the jury of that, and they may hold her TAR background against her.  The jury may begrudgingly consider Missy a power broker.  

 

If Natalie makes it to the final 3 and Missy's there, I think Missy will make the case FOR her.  Missy will want to convince Jon and others that no, she didn't scheme against him! She was loyal! It was all Natalie! At which point, Natalie can say "yup, I did it. I outplayed."

 

If she's smart. 

[SledDog]

Yes, Natalie deserves the W. They voted out Nadiya 1st because of her strategizing on AR then why did they not think Natalie was a threat.

 

I'm trying to recall but wasn't one of the reasons that Nadiya was booted in the first round because someone claimed that she and Natalie used the U-Turn in The Amazing Race and that showed the sort of player she'd be (ruthless and conniving)? Which was absurd because Natalie & Nadiya didn't use the U-Turn the first time that they did the Amazing Race and weren't around long enough to get a chance to use it the second time they played. I think that the biggest motivator for Natalie has been "avenging" Nadiya by going as far as possible in this contest after her sister going out. Ironically by getting rid of Nadiya for supposedly being part of a ruthless team in The Amazing Race has led Natalie to be increasingly ruthless in Survivor.

 

Keith is a lock to win, that I agree. Not sure about Jaclyn (unless both Keith & Natalie are gone)

 

By what logic do you come to that conclusion? Because there's a preponderance of men on the jury? The fact is that Keith survived as long as he did largely because of the sufferance of Natalie and Baylor. Members of his old alliance won't appreciate it that his loose lips sank their collective ship when, Missy. Baylor, and Natalie were  basically waiting to be the next out the door. If he goes up against Natalie he loses. If he goes up against Baylor he probably loses, because since theyallied together Baylor has basically been Natalie`s right hand woman. Keith wins easily against Jacklyn who has really been riding Jon`s coattails  and probably wins against Missy because Missy really hasn`t done much.

 

I'm on the Natalie bandwagon too. I think her last threat is Baylor and Missy realizing they can't take her to the final 3 and choose Keith instead. If that's the case, I think it's Baylor to win.

 

There are frankly a lot of ways I can see things going down next week. Missy's injury could come into play. It's clear that Jacklyn's ties with Jon means she'll be out to get Natalie so do you get her out before Keith, or take a chance and dump Keith first and (if you're Natalie) hoping that the Baylor-Missy-Natalie family dynamic holds for the final three?

 

I do NOT get why Missy is so loved by her alliance.   Jon gives up food and a shower to Baylor so she can be with Missy.... she's been right by her side for weeks.  Everyone just bends over backwards so Missy can eat, get reward, whatever it is.  People are babying her, and taking her to the end. Meanwhile, she's choosing Jon over a strategic move than will get either herself or her daughter closer to a million dollars.  She continues to show me just how non-functioning her logic skills are.  I truly feel sorry for Baylor.

 

Simply put, Missy was the "Mom" to the alliance of Five. At least that's what she thinks. Of course they take care of her. But the very thing that you see as a weakness is why everyone wants her to go the final three with them. Her logical skills and misplaced loyalty shows that she's not likely to get a lot of votes at Final Tribal. So you take care of her to get her there, in much the same way that Boston Rob took care of the weakest players in his alliance to Final Tribal in his season. I think Jon's ideal final three would have been him, Jacklyn, and Missy. Actually a truly ruthless player would take Jackly and Missy to final so wee need to see how ruthless Natalie truly is.

 

Missy did not choose Jon over her daughter.  Just the opposite.  She knew the plan to blindside Jon, and went along with it.  All she had to to was tell Jon the real plan.  instead she stayed silent, and still kept true to her pledge to not vote Jon out. 

 

This is one you have to wonder about. Was she truly onboard with the plan to blindside Jon before they arrived at Tribal Council and he started talking about his thoughts for a Final Three that included Natalie (and probably Jacklyn)? Of course we can't know all of what happened at Tribal but I think that there are "advantages" - at least in her mind - to sticking to Jon's plan and getting rid of Keith.

[candall]

I keep remembering what Jaclyn has told us about real-life Jon in her TH's.  She said that he always has these big plans, which he's just positive are going to work out--and then he's crushed when they don't.  (I'm thinking "Vegas sommelier, then moving to Italy" might fit into that pattern.)

 

She also said that Jon's quite close to his mother and, I think, turns to her when things go bad.

 

So there's Jon's Survivor play in a nutshell.  He was formulating his jury speech on the first show and never paused or quavered in his belief that he was destined to wind up there.  Even when playing the idol saved him, he ignored the source and seemed to feel it was just one more click on his march to the finale.

 

And Baylor describing the ersatz mother/son relationship made a couple more matching puzzle pieces. (After Missy said she gave Jon her word and therefore he also had Baylor's word by extension--yeow--I was holding my breath that Missy would tip him off.)

 

People complain about the Blood & Water angle, but I think the background about the players from their loved ones adds some meaty insight.

[RedheadZombie]

I didn't read his bio but I would wager that Jon hasn't watched many seasons of Survivor. You have to remember that the people who are recruited are only given latest season to watch and that's it. You can give Natalie credit for her social game and working that relationship, but I can't believe someone who is a fan of this show could be that gullible. 

 

Jon said something tonight that revealed complete ignorance of the game, but for the life of me I can't remember what it was.

 

I think that J&J might have figured Nat was their best choice to take to a F3.   

 

I have only one regret that this is no longer possible.  Jon was planning to stand up and pontificate to the jury about how stupid and careless it was of Natalie to vote out the wrong person.  Natalie could have countered with - "Jon, you incredible dumbass.  That was no accident.  Alec went home because I orchestrated it.  Try to keep up."

[vibeology]

That was a great vote and an excellent plan. Natalie should be proud. I love that after getting instructions to act defeated at Tribal, Keith cut Jeff off to put on a show for Jon. After his past tribals I thought it was adorable.

Jaclyn annoys me but if I were the other players I would drag her to FTC. She'll get Jon's vote but I don't see a final three scenario where she's getting enough votes to win. Jaclyn was. Jon's goat and without him she's still a goat.

[NYGirl]

While I agree with all of you that Natalie's move was big I'm still not on board with her nor will I ever be.  Some of you didn't watch Amazing Race to see her and her "twinnie" actually steal money from another team who dropped it.  Rather than just hand it back to them, they pocketed it.  An uproar ensued on the internet message boards, etc. 

 

As I've said every single week, I don't like any of the people so each week I change who I'm rooting for just because.  My latest is Keith so I guess I'll stick with him.  If he gets eliminated I'm screwed. 

 

I'm glad they got Jon out.  I also feel like Missy should leave because how is she going to do a challenge now?  Any other season she'd be gone before she even blinked as she'd have been voted out last night. 

[JudyObscure]

I agree Jaclyn would make a fine goat but  who would be able to bear the pain and punishment  of her silent treatment for the rest of the game? (snark)

 

What's with the netting torture, Survivor?  Didn't some unfortunate young girl jump into the netting on the first episode of her season and go out with a broken wrist?  That stuff scares me more than those fat yellow slugs they used to eat. It gives your feet zero stability so of course your ankle is going to roll and if your tendons are the least bit weak or stiff there will be a serious injury. 

 

At least it happened to Missy who really shouldn't be turning to her little girl for support when she gets divorced, that's what friends are for.  Dr. Phil always says don't lay adult problems on kids. It was sweet to see Keith be so chivalrous with her, though. If it wasn't for the spitting I might have a crush on Keith, but he's the reason I had to give up snacking during the show.

[Whimsy]

Stop with The Amazing Race rehash discussions.  This board is about Survivor.  Yes, the Twinnies were on Amazing Race, but the talk about the money situation on TAR is derailing the board a little.  Keep it on topic about THIS episode. 

[Haleth]

I do NOT get why Missy is so loved by her alliance. [snip] Meanwhile, she's choosing Jon over a strategic move than will get either herself or her daughter closer to a million dollars.  She continues to show me just how non-functioning her logic skills are.

 

I think you answered your own question.

I don't know why Nat and Baylor didn't just tell Missy to vote for Jaclyn and not even mention that their plan was to get rid of Jon.  It would have saved them from having to deal with Missy's pearl clutching and uncertainty about how she would vote.  

Alec will probably vote for Drew.

 

Ha!

You know, most people don't know how to really enjoy a blindside.   They don't realize there are multiple layers of comeuppance.   You have to really savor it.   Swish it around in your mouth awhile.   Only then can you truly appreciate it when a blowhard gets handed his walking papers.

 

Hee!  

[Wings]

I am late to this party, got home very late last night.  I have nothing more to add other than YAY!  Job well done Natalie! She will go down in Survivor history.  

Edited December 11, 2014 by wings707

[ProfCrash]

Loved the episode. Jaclyn was right and Jon was too trusting. Jon should have played the idol just to be safe but I guess he thought it would be good to have for the next tribal. I am glad to see him out although I would have preferred Jaclyn because she just annoys me. I would rather have Jon who is all about honor and the like then Jaclyn who has limited who she talked to and been kind of whiny the entire game.

 

Missy is screwed. If you check out Jon's Ponderosa video you will understand why. There were some seriously deep conversation about honor and religion between the two that we did not see on the show. There is no way she gets Jon or Jaclyn's vote and it shows why Jon trusted her so much and why it was hard for her to swap her vote.

 

Natalie needs to play her idol next week. If she wins immunity she needs to hand the idol to Baylor. Baylor cannot win. Keith needs to go just because he could win based on winning immunity and surviving to the end as the underdog. Toss in the possibility of getting votes from his past alliance (Wes, Alec, Josh, and Reed) and he is too dangerous. I don't think Reed or Josh would vote for Keith but I suppose there is a chance. Natalie has to win immunity at four because the jury would be crazy to bring Natalie to the finals.

 

I think that Natalie wins no matter who she goes up against. It won't take much for her to convince people that she planned Jon's blindside. If Missy is voted out, she will tell Jon that it was Natalie and Baylor, not her that came up with the plan. Jeremy, Josh, and Reed will all respect that game play. I think Jon will actually respect the game play and vote for Natalie as long as Jaclyn is not in the final. In his exit interviews Alec mentions that he got too comfortable and should have spent more time with Natalie. He liked her and respected her and it would have been better then getting complacent after the Jeremy vote out. I think he would vote for her over anyone left.

[Guest]

What if Jon asked Jaclyn to hold his immunity idol for him as a precaution just in case, and nobody knows?   That way she could have handed it to him during Tribal if it became necessary, and in the event he didn't use it but and got voted off (as she feared), then she would have it.

I'm trying to recall but wasn't one of the reasons that Nadiya was booted in the first round because someone claimed that she and Natalie used the U-Turn in The Amazing Race and that showed the sort of player she'd be (ruthless and conniving)? 

...

This is one you have to wonder about. Was she truly onboard with the plan to blindside Jon before they arrived at Tribal Council and he started talking about his thoughts for a Final Three that included Natalie (and probably Jacklyn)? Of course we can't know all of what happened at Tribal but I think that there are "advantages" - at least in her mind - to sticking to Jon's plan and getting rid of Keith.

 

On Jaclyn "holding" the idol for Jon... I don't think it works that way.  

 

It seems like people voted Nadiya out just because she was on TAR twice, so they figured she knew her stuff?   I think they were right.  The twins aren't dumb and they take it seriously.

 

I think we do know Missy was on board to blindside Jon last night.  She had to vote for Jon or Jaclyn in the first round for the plan to work.  She voted for Jaclyn.  We weren't shown any reason for her to do that besides being on board with Baylor and Nat.  Plus she was tearing up as it went down.  She knew he was going and she got him out as much as the others did.

 

Does Baylor have siblings?  I thought it was weird she referred to herself as Missy's 'first born'.  Ah ok, I just looked it up... Baylor has a 14 year old sister.  And Missy has a cheerleading gym.  Good for them.  

Edited December 11, 2014 by Guest

[Bryce Lynch]

Great job by Natalie, first selling the "I voted for Alec by accident" story (ROTFL!) and then orchestrating the blindside.  Jon is really clueless.  Jaclyn, who isn't that much sharper than him, warned him that Natalie might have been lying and that a blindside was possible, yet he went to the jury with an idol in his pocket.

 

While I find Jon very annoying, I don't think is he is a terrible guy, just not very self aware (that is an understatement).  He seems to want to be a good, likable person, but he seems oblivious about the things he does that annoy people.  If he understood these things, he would probably try to change some of them.  Maybe watching the series and the reactions to him by others will be helpful to him.   

 

I started out hating Missy, but I have grown to respect her a lot more.  She is far from perfect, but she is tough.  Her injury is far more cause to quit the game than many others who have quit.  I also admire that she truly, didn't want to break her word to Jon, but came around to realize that it is part of the game and did what she had to do. 

 

I have been on the Natalie bandwagon for quite a while now after growing to hate on on TAR (after initially liking her and Nadiya).  I also wouldn't mind seeing Missy or Baylor win.  Of the two, I think it would be best if Baylor won and had control of the money as Missy would almost certainly lose half of it in her 4th divorce. :)  Keith winning wouldn't upset me either. 

 

Anyone but Jaclyn at this point.  Even she might be able to redeem herself, now that Jon is gone, sort of like Reed started to come alive and really play once Josh was eliminated. 

[Tryangle]

Any way you look at it, this guarantees a tie vote at TC under all eventualities:

• Jon plays the idol for himself: results in a 2-way tie between Jaclyn and Keith, and Jaclyn gets voted out in the 2nd round of votes.
• Jon gives Jaclyn the idol to play: results in a 2-way tie between Jon and Keith, and Jon gets booted in the 2nd round of votes.
• Jon doesn't play the idol at all: results in a 3-way tie between Jon, Jaclyn and Keith, and Jon gets voted out in the 2nd round of votes. Which is what happened.

Option 2 was actually the riskiest of the three for Natalie because of Missy's steadfast refusal to write down Jon's name. If Missy had persisted through the second round of votes, the result would be another 2-2 tie (Nat and Baylor voting for Jon, against Jaclyn and Missy voting for Keith). At this point Jon and Keith would be drawing rocks out of a bag, which introduces a chance element out of the control of Natalie or anybody else - Keith could pull the black rock just as easily as Jon.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't the Purple Rock tiebreaker in the situation 2 - deadlock mean that either Baylor or Missy would go home (ie, the people with immunity or who got votes would be immune)? That said, it was overall a good plan from Natalie, and wonder how Baylor and Natalie were finally able to convince Missy to abandon her silly loyalty to Jon schtick?

 

Simply put, Missy was the "Mom" to the alliance of Five. At least that's what she thinks. Of course they take care of her. But the very thing that you see as a weakness is why everyone wants her to go the final three with them. Her logical skills and misplaced loyalty shows that she's not likely to get a lot of votes at Final Tribal. So you take care of her to get her there, in much the same way that Boston Rob took care of the weakest players in his alliance to Final Tribal in his season. I think Jon's ideal final three would have been him, Jacklyn, and Missy. Actually a truly ruthless player would take Jackly and Missy to final so wee need to see how ruthless Natalie truly is.

 

If Natalie can pull it off, taking Jaclyn and Missy to a F3 would be brilliant, especially if it turns out there's a F2 instead. Among the women, Baylor is the second-most likely winner of a Final Immunity Challenge after Natalie. Jaclyn is surprisingly quite inept at ICs. But priority #1 has to be taking out Keith, for all of them.

[Bryce Lynch]

When does Natalie's HII expire?  I think she needs to use it in the next TC that takes them from 5 to 4 castaways. If that is the case, she would automatically play it next TC and then would need to either win immunity or survive a vote to make it to the final 3.  (assuming it is not a Final 2). 

 

I wonder if she would try to get Keith out next, as he is good in challenges.  Unless the immunity challenge for the 4 to 3 TC is totally non-physical, Missy has no chance due to her injury, and Jaclyn has been pretty useless in challenges, so Baylor would be her only real competition, and she would have the edge over her as well. 

[Primetimer]

A player breaks a bone, but will he or she also break his or her alliance?

Read the story

[Slider]

What is it about Missy that makes everyone that wins a reward give it to her and her daughter? No wonder Baylor's a spoiled little $h!t.

[Lorimac]

Couch Hubby said the following:  "Why didn't Jon give Jacklyn the idol, so if was so sure he would not be voted out, It seems like he does a lot of PDA but he doesn't back it up with what really counts - idol possession.  Honey, I would give you my idol."    There you have it - true love = idol possession.

[MyLisa]

I'm pulling for Natalie--between her strategizing and winning of individual challenges along the way, she's really been impressive.  Here's hoping she gets Keith out next, though -- as last man standing, he's definitely a threat at final TC to get all the 'bros before hos' votes. 

[Lingo]

When does Natalie's HII expire?  I think she needs to use it in the next TC that takes them from 5 to 4 castaways. If that is the case, she would automatically play it next TC and then would need to either win immunity or survive a vote to make it to the final 3.  (assuming it is not a Final 2). 

 

 

For sure Natalie's idol expires on the next vote, so she'll play it. Considering we're going into the final with 5 players, I think it's safe to say that they planned for a Final 3 -- there's no way there will be 3 ICs and 4 TCs in the last episode.  The only way we're getting a Final 2 is if Missy is suddenly evacuated, which probably works out fine for everyone except maybe Baylor (and Baylor could use Missy on the jury).

 

For a while my biggest fear was that Natalie would make it to F3 with Missy and Baylor, and then they'd suddenly switch to F2 and Natalie would get voted out.  But I'm certain the only way we're getting F2 now is if Missy is evacuated, so that's not gonna happen.

 

I do still worry that Natalie won't get the credit for her gameplay.  Keith kinda knows that Natalie has taken the lead, but Missy and Baylor may claim that Jon's ouster was at least 50% Baylor.  Hell, Missy and Baylor may even believe that! And Jaclyn suspected Natalie of lying but that doesn't mean that she suspects Natalie of being the ringleader.

I'm pulling for Natalie--between her strategizing and winning of individual challenges along the way, she's really been impressive.  Here's hoping she gets Keith out next, though -- as last man standing, he's definitely a threat at final TC to get all the 'bros before hos' votes. 

 

I really doubt it...Jeremy, Josh, and Reed are all superfans of the show, so I doubt they'd vote for him unless they thought the other finalist(s) were just as unstrategic as him.  Then again, Wes will vote for him, Jon and Jaclyn might vote for him as a revenge vote against the girls, and who knows about Alec?

[Boilergal]

I really did not like the Twinnies on TAR - but I am loving Natalie.  She is extremely focused, smart, strategic and atheltic, I am impressed with every aspect of her game.

 

Not surprised at all that Jon didn't listen to Jaquilin - he hasn't listened to a word she has had to say all season.  Loved when his vase fell, and he pouted "but I didn't move"  Welcome to the real world snowflake...do you want a participation trophy?

 

I don't pay attention to "the biggest blindside of the season" promos because the results are rarely gratifying....but tonights was!!  I loved Jaquilin's little wink as the first round of votes was read ...it's all good.   Bwahahahahahhaha Yes YES it was ALL GOOD!!! 

[ProfCrash]

When does Natalie's HII expire?  I think she needs to use it in the next TC that takes them from 5 to 4 castaways. If that is the case, she would automatically play it next TC and then would need to either win immunity or survive a vote to make it to the final 3.  (assuming it is not a Final 2). 

 

I wonder if she would try to get Keith out next, as he is good in challenges.  Unless the immunity challenge for the 4 to 3 TC is totally non-physical, Missy has no chance due to her injury, and Jaclyn has been pretty useless in challenges, so Baylor would be her only real competition, and she would have the edge over her as well. 

It can be played up until the final four so next week is the last time Natalie can play it.

 

Jon is fine. I don't think he is arrogant or all that annoying. I think he is a bit clueless and unable to read a room. I imagine that our individual personality quirks would drive each other up the wall when you are together for 24/7 in a very confined location. So I am sure that Jon didn't realize that his talking about wine was driving people crazy. I am sure Baylor rubbed people wrong and was bratty because there was so much exposure. The Neanderthals behaved the way they did for similar reasons. They were comfortable in their positions, in a small environment and just reverted to their sort of normal 20 year old young men crass behavior. That is fine in the frat house or man cave but not in mixed company or the office. But those traits just get worse and more evident when you are living together like these folks are.

 

Jon's Ponderosa video shows that there was more of a theme of people playing an honorable game theme then we are being shown. I get the feeling that Missy and Jon has a pretty hard core final four agreement which explains why they could flip on Jeremy and say that they had been honorable all along. It falls into the idea that there are some alliances that are real and others that are kind of real but not really. Jeremy knew Jon could flip, it was not a long held thing, but was surprised by Missy. It sounds like Missy had a real alliance with Jon that she just broke but did not have something similar with Jeremy. No matter what, that is going to bite her in the ass. She broke her word twice and to people who did not think she would.

[Bryce Lynch]

It can be played up until the final four so next week is the last time Natalie can play it.

 

Jon is fine. I don't think he is arrogant or all that annoying. I think he is a bit clueless and unable to read a room. I imagine that our individual personality quirks would drive each other up the wall when you are together for 24/7 in a very confined location. So I am sure that Jon didn't realize that his talking about wine was driving people crazy. I am sure Baylor rubbed people wrong and was bratty because there was so much exposure. The Neanderthals behaved the way they did for similar reasons. They were comfortable in their positions, in a small environment and just reverted to their sort of normal 20 year old young men crass behavior. That is fine in the frat house or man cave but not in mixed company or the office. But those traits just get worse and more evident when you are living together like these folks are.

 

Jon's Ponderosa video shows that there was more of a theme of people playing an honorable game theme then we are being shown. I get the feeling that Missy and Jon has a pretty hard core final four agreement which explains why they could flip on Jeremy and say that they had been honorable all along. It falls into the idea that there are some alliances that are real and others that are kind of real but not really. Jeremy knew Jon could flip, it was not a long held thing, but was surprised by Missy. It sounds like Missy had a real alliance with Jon that she just broke but did not have something similar with Jeremy. No matter what, that is going to bite her in the ass. She broke her word twice and to people who did not think she would.

 

I agree to a point.  I think Jon seems like a decent guy at heart, who cares about other people and what they think about him.  I just think he doesn't realize when he is coming across badly and annoying people, like with all the wine talk and the PDAs with Jaclyn.   

[Jobiska]

It was so Jon to start traipsing toward his snuffing without remembering his torch.  Now there's the "I wish I were a monkey" doofus side of Jon that originally appealed to me.  I don't hate him, and I think I will go back to appreciating his good points...now that he's out!

[peachmangosteen]

Last week several people said Jon should run from Jaclyn due to her princess entitled self. I wouldn't want either of them myself, but Jon clearly needs Jaclyn to negotiate the real world.

 

This. Jon is very stupid. I'm not sure if stupid if the right word, but he just has no perception or insight about, well, anything. I think Jon would've been gone a long time ago if it weren't for Jaclyn having such a good read on people. 

 

I laughed when Missy said that she would never betray someone or go behind their backs. Jeremy was her One True Alliance at one point, wasn't he? Before she betrayed him and went behind his back?

 

When Missy was going on about loyalty I was like, "Bitch, you dropped Jeremy like a hot potato for Jon!"

 

I didn't read his bio but I would wager that Jon hasn't watched many seasons of Survivor. 

 

Yet he has brought up prior season/contestants a few times. I imagine of the Final 6 Jon was actually probably the biggest fan of the show.

 

I thought Jon took his boot really well for someone who was so sure he was getting to the end and winning. Props to him for that. Also, I was thinking throughout this ep that Jaclyn totally saw this Jon blindside coming but ended up deciding to let it happen. She probably knew they'd split the vote, so if she had told Jon to play his idol, she would've gone.

 

I'm wondering if maybe Jaclyn has Jon's idol now. He didn't appear to take anything with him when he left expect his water canteen. Maybe he left his bag at TC (or at camp, if he was really stupid) and Jaclyn can now use it next TC. I kinda hope so since that'd be fun.

 

I really hope Natalie wins since I think she's the most deserving (which is I word I hate to use when it comes to Survivor), but I would be OK with anyone but Keith winning. I think they've all made some good moves.

Edited December 11, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[needschocolate]

Is Natalie the only one who has given away a reward who was not voted out at the next tribal?   I think she was the one who started the giving away rewards theme, too. Jeremy gave away his and was voted out.  Jon gave away his this time and was voted out.  And I think Alec was voted out the same episode that he gave away his reward.  Seems liek there were more, but it is a ll a blur now.

 

It didn't end up mattering, but I thought Natalie was wrong to volunteer for for EI.  I suspect she did it so that J/J would have alone time and would think she was doing them a favor (although, she should have pointed it out to them - "I wqill go to exile and you guys can have some time together"). But I saw three potential hazards of her going - (1) J/J would have time to talk and may figure out that Natalie is a threat, (2) Jon may think that there is always an idol on EI and would try to blindside Natalie, and (3) if the reward people come back before the EI person, Missy/Baylor/Keith would have plenty of time spill the plan.

 

Then again, I also thought it was wrong of Natalie to split the vote three ways because it meant telling Missy the plan.  I thought Natalie should just have it be 3 for Keith, 3 for Jon and give Keith her idol (with a back up plan in case Jon plays his idol too.  

 

Jaclyn was bitching because Jon was happy about winning and she called him annoying because he was happy about possibly getting a massage. IDK why Jaclyn always feels entitled or if she's miserable, Jon has to be miserable too. Outside the game, I feel a little bad for Jon, it looks like he has to constantly cater to her and make her happy. 

 

But Jon is so bad at reading people that he probably doesn't realize how badly Jaclyn treats him.  They are a perfect match - disfunctional, maybe, but perfectly suited for each other.  

 

Jon is like the anti-Russell.  Russell put all his energy into making it to FTC, but kept landing there with zero chance of getting jury votes.  Jon focused entirely on FTC-- who to go with, what to say, who to frame-- when he should've spent more mental energy on getting himself there.  

 

Jon was so good natured as he was voted off and was leaving tribal that I got the feeling he was thinking "I better act like a good sport about this so they vote for me at the final tribal."

[fishcakes]

I wonder if Jaclyn didn't really push for Jon to play his idol, even though she was clearly suspicious, because she knew if they were flipping, the votes would be split her way too. Watch out Jon, you're not married to her yet.

 

Jaclyn has a better sense of things than Jon, which is not saying much since I think it's entirely possible that Jon was a Bubble Boy until just recently, but she defers to him way too easily. She says that maybe Natalie didn't vote for Alec by accident, he says "naaaaah," she goes "okay!" and then they talk about how pretty she is. Having good instincts doesn't mean much if she's willing to constantly subvert them to appease the dumbest guy in the room. That said, Jon does seem like a nice guy.

 

My goodness Jon is hella entitled. He has so many moments of disbelief when something doesn't go exactly his way. He simply stared at the broken vessel during the immunity challenge as if it could not be possible that he would not win. He said a couple of time "but I didn't move". Like he didn't notice the huge gusts of wind that weren't under his control.

 

Plus, he was moving like crazy during that challenge! Every time they showed him he was in a new weird pose. I'm not a conspiracy theorist at all, but at one point I did wonder if they glued his damned vase down because there's no way he should have lasted as long as he did the way that he was changing position every few seconds.

 

 

What I saw tonight was Natalie pulling off a Sandra, my favorite Survivor ever. Sandra was loyal to Rupert, and it was annoying, but once he was booted, she started playing for herself and was awesome. That's what I'm starting to see in Natalie. Jeremy was her Rupert, now she has no loyalties, and is playing the hell out of this game and I am loving it.

 

Especially in the way she wanted to avenge Jeremy's ouster, she reminds me a little of Sandra too and her greatest speech about wanting to vote Russell out "for Rob, for Tyson, and for Coach, and I don't even like Coach but this is for him too." I was a little worried she was getting the Voted Out This Episode editing when she was on Exile Island missing her sister and then when she returned to the tribe and starting crying over Baylor's kindness in bringing her the rice to eat before the challenge. The moments of real emotion on this show seem to get fewer and further between all the time, but I thought that was a nice, genuine thing to show.

 

Of course, then Missy had to horn in with, "waaaah! my ankle!" and then Baylor with, "waaaah! my mom's crying!" because God forbid Jeff should offer sympathy to someone else for a minute. Also I noticed that Missy went from having maybe a sprained ankle to calling it a "broken foot" as soon as she knew she wasn't getting pulled from the game. I bet being around Missy is exhausting in real life. I did like seeing Keith checking her ankle though and seeing how much she could move her foot. He's a fire fighter so it's possible he's also a paramedic, which is weird because it's hard to think of him as having any knowledge about things.

[Dobian]

Jon was done in by his overconfidence.  He now follows in the grand tradition of Survivor "nice guys" who got taken out, going back to Colby in Australia.  Had he played his idol then Jaclyn would have been voted out. He would have been next but he'd still be a favorite to win immunity challenges and make it to the final three that way. (like Kelly in season 1)

 

Here's my prediction for the finish:

 

Jaclyn is doomed unless she wins immunity, and she's not good at those.  Missy and Baylor wouldn't want her in the final three because she gets an automatic vote from Jon and also one from Alec.  Two votes right there.  So your final four is mom/daughter, Natalie, and Keith.  Natalie would want to keep both Baylor and Missy in the final three because if one of them is on the council, the other one gets their vote so an advantage.  So with Missy/Baylor/Natalie in the final three, Natalie wins.  Baylor really hasn't done much besides playing the alliance game.  Same with mom, who also has been gifted with some rewards she didn't win from other players, and has had a pretty cushy Survivor experience up to twisting her ankle.  Jon and Jaclyn would throw their votes to Missy, Alec to Baylor, and I believe the rest of the votes go to Natalie.  Reed would never vote Baylor or Missy, though Josh might give his to Missy.  If Keith wins immunity (which could definitely happen), then Missy probably goes and it's Keith/Baylor/Natalie.  Natalie still wins.  Baylor would get Jon/Jaclyn/Missy, Keith would get his son's vote, and Natalie would get the rest.  But who knows, voting is unpredictable.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Dobian

[ProfCrash]

Jon played linebacker at Michigan State University for four years, I want to say from 2007-2010. He was a starter so he was a pretty good athlete. The vast majority of the really good athletes, ie Pros and Olympians, have been gracious or at least good sports when booted from the game. It comes from years of playing at a high level and understanding that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. I am not surprised that Jon handled it well. 

 

Jaclyn will not handle it as well.

 

As for Missy's comment about not lying to people, I think that players are so absorbed in the game that they forget that when they lie to someone about having their back, like Missy did Jeremy, they know it is a lie but the other person does not. In Missy's mind, she never meant to go to the finals with Jeremy so lying to him was fine. She had made a deal with Jon that she meant to keep. It could not have been a deal to the finals because she had the talking heads about a final three with Baylor and Natalie. I was surprised with how hard she took the idea, it does seem like she and Jon had a pretty strong bond.

 

I loved Baylor's comment that she did not have a deal with Jon and that her Mom's deal with Jon was not binding for her. It was nice to see Baylor stick to that. It would have been even better if Baylor had said "So what, this is Survivor, you stab people in the back." But Baylor has really started to come out of her shell and started to show some backbone. Perhaps hanging out with Natalie has been good for Baylor.