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S47.E11: Flipping the Win Switch

Rodney

By Rodney
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Rodney

Rodney

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I know that everybody here apparently likes Kyle (and don't get me wrong, as I like him, too), but him going was a no-brainer once he didn't win immunity tonight.  I'm so glad that Caroline, Sue, and Teeny got their way on that one.  Rachel and Andy were vastly overthinking what should've been -- and was -- an easy vote.

That said, Andy excluded, I am liking this Underdog Alliance.  Caroline, Sue, Rachel, and Teeny are four of my favorite castaways this season.  And they have the easy goat with them who won't win, so Andy's harmless.

I was worried about the Sue/Caroline relationship since Caroline joined in the blindside of Gabe last week.  But thank goodness that Sue heard her out, forgave her, and continued working with her.

Congrats to Rachel for winning that advantage just in the nick of time and beating out the big immunity beast, Kyle, for immunity!  She should be proud!

With Kyle gone, Sam and Genevieve need to watch out.  I hope that Andy's not seriously planning on jumping to them next week.

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LadyChatts

LadyChatts

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I think I'm more upset at Kyle leaving because Sue finally got her stupid revenge.  She's had this vendetta against him all because he wrote her name down all those votes ago (which, in case she hasn't noticed, is a big part of the game).  Since S50 is going to be returning players I hope he is one of them from this season.  I would have rather lost Genevieve, she put herself in this position when she didn't have to for her own petty reasons and thinking she was pulling off a big move.  

I'm really impressed with Rachel.  I didn't pay her much attention in the beginning but she's got a really good grasp on this game, with strategy and relationships and eyeing who the biggest threats are.  If she doesn't feel the underdog alliance is good for her game, I can see her finding a crafty way out of it.  I was happy she won that advantage.  And no one knows she has an idol right (that we've seen)?

I'm going to guess future players won't be so dumb in giving up their SITD for rice.  Kind of took the element away from trying to convince people the vote wasn't on them so they wouldn't play it.  Even though the things seem like a waste of space I gotta think that rice wasn't worth losing that one potential safety net for some people left.  

Andy's still a legend in his own mind.  My guess is if he goes to the final 3 and is being told he got carried there he's going to lay down in the corner and just peace out like he did during the first IC because no one is telling him how awesome he thinks he is.

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susannot

susannot

Old school Survivor tonight and I love it.  No stupid SITDs or advantages, just maneuvering for votes.

 

I didn't realize that Rachel has an idol and no one knows.  If so, mad props.  I can't stand it when players immediately run to tell allies that they have an idol.  So, impressed with Rachel.

 

However, as a (retired) female lawyer, I'm still rooting for Genevieve to be the first one of us to win.

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LadyChatts

LadyChatts

10 minutes ago, CraftyHazel said:

I couldn’t read most of the votes tonight, but since Kyle is the one who voted Teeny, who voted Genevieve?

Andy.  I assume he wasn't left completely out of the loop and did it to create chaos?  Thinking everyone would wonder why there were two Genevieve votes?  But then...

 

6 minutes ago, susannot said:

I don't get why Kyle voted Teeny.  It was a throwaway vote, wasn't it?

Kyle mentioned wanting to create a moment.  I think he assumed everyone was voting for him and did it just because.  So unless this was a plan of his and Andy's, Teeny is probably going to wonder who wrote her name down as she'll likely assume Kyle voted for Genevieve.

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Rodney

Rodney

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18 minutes ago, susannot said:

I didn't realize that Rachel has an idol and no one knows.  If so, mad props.  I can't stand it when players immediately run to tell allies that they have an idol.  So, impressed with Rachel.

Sue has one, as well.  But Caroline knows about it, although Sue didn't tell her.  She figured it out on her own.

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North of Eden

North of Eden

Every year for this episode I feel compelled to pay tribute to the greatest SURVIVOR promo of all time. As we know the show for many years aired on Thursdays and early on they would do a “so far on Survivor clip show” for the holiday but then they started airing on Thanksgivings and that gave them the legendary promo, “As you sit down to Thanksgiving dinner this year see what the castaways are eating!” And then it was cut to a gross food challenge!

Gross food challenge IMO was a tentpole to the runaway success early on. We got a ghost of it a couple weeks ago but I still long to see the ENTIRE tribe have doing the dance of disgust as they try to force down live larvae or some other hideous culinary nightmare. Overblow PC killed it off of course but the memories remain.

Anway to the actual episode. Early on I said…trusting Andy feels wrong, just wrong to me and sure enough there he was trying to sway the vote AWAY from the most logical, rational boot you could ever make.

I feel going into the season they thought he was going to be there next Cochrane, their next Phillip, their next breakout character but he’s fizzled with the viewers, and it was too late to recut the episodes to downplay him.

Side note I would like to see what goes into the shots before council, “Please stand still so we can dramatically pan around you in slow motion”?

Final note it is completely unfair trying to suggest Sue is being dragged along. She did excellent in several comps and very nearly won at least on IC. At this point I feel like everyone left like them or hate them has been actively playing the game. And for once there is no clear No Vote Getting Goat…even Andy would probably garner at least one vote from someone. But that’s a good thing. Maybe we’ll have a competitive final three this season.

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mojoween

mojoween

(edited)

Smart for those assholes, but sucks for me, the viewer, who really likes Kyle and can’t stand Andy’s smug face or Sue’s incredibly foolish hatred for Kyle.

Damn editors made me think Andy was going to get his comeuppance with playing his “I am the greatest mastermind ever” hits at the top of the episode.

Edited by mojoween
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Jodithgrace

Jodithgrace

I can’t believe that Andy compared Kyle’s immunity wins to flipping a coin! A coin flip is pure chance, while Kyle’s wins were  skill, with a little luck thrown in to be sure.  I laughed when Caroline said that his math made no sense. In addition, Andy is overlooking Kyle’s “story;” rough childhood, family man, etc, all of which make him a threat regardless of immunity wins. 
 

Did somebody give Sue a little emergency Botox before tribal council? She was looking downright scary all episode, and then back to semi normal at tribal. So now she’ll be gloating that she finally got rid of public enemy number one. 
 

I really like Rachel, and am rooting for her or Teeny to win this thing. I hope that’s not the kiss of death. 

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zscore

zscore

6 minutes ago, Jodithgrace said:

I can’t believe that Andy compared Kyle’s immunity wins to flipping a coin!

That's not what Andy meant. His estimation is based on Kyle's current record, which is 50% (2-2, not counting the mergetory and the split tribal where he only competed with half the tribe). His point is that it is unlikely that Kyle would win all 4 remaining ICs when he has lost 2 out of 4 so far.

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TVFan1

TVFan1

It was apparent that Kyle was going once he lost the immunity challenge. I'm sure it probably would have been Geneieve otherwise. I think voting off Kyle was the smart move this week since he didn't have immunity.

A big congratulations to Rachel for winning the "block a vote" advantage and winning the immunity challenge. She beat out Kyle by a few steps. She clearly has game and I'm rooting for her to win. 

 

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Andyourlittledog2

Andyourlittledog2

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Sue is an ugly person. That ridiculous grudge against Kyle that she just seethed and stewed over was not a good look on her. ( Note:  inflated duck lips, like tattoos, do not age well. Something to think about when you're younger.) I really can't stand this woman at all. She'll be with us to the end, won't she?  

Good bye Kyle, I'm going to miss you. You are pretty much the only person I could actually root for, aside from Teeny so far, in this silly season.

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Lantern7

Lantern7

Meh episode. I was posting on the "live thread," but I was distracting myself with my iPad and the SNL special airing on NBC. I guess Kyle's greatest weakness was that he was too good at the game. On the bright side, the game Rachel played on her "Journey" was well thought-out, and she won Immunity . . . and I remembered that she exists. That's good, I guess.

I'm not feeling the hate for Sue. I mean, I kind of get it, but this is "New Survivor," where no one is really that villainous. I also get Sam and Andy being buttheads in general.

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Skooma

Skooma

8 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I think I'm more upset at Kyle leaving because Sue finally got her stupid revenge.

Yeah next to the damn big corporation lawyer, I dislike Sue the most.  I so wanted corp lawyer gone not just to save Kyle for another day but to drive Sue mad as well.  They will regret not getting Genieve-however you spell it at this tribal.

8 hours ago, CraftyHazel said:

I couldn’t read most of the votes tonight, but since Kyle is the one who voted Teeny, who voted Genevieve?

Like said above by LadyChatts, it was Andy but it was a planned vote with the group I would guess as in "just in case Kyle as an idol" Plan B thing.  They always do a Plan B in case of an idol in these votes to protect the person their intended victim might vote for.

Best moment of the night was the "Ghosts" Survivor spot promo this week with Thor declared the huge challenge threat of their group.

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thesupremediva1

thesupremediva1

Well, Kyle was basically the only one worth rooting for. No need to watch now that he’s gone. 
These geniuses are so worried about challenges, but they’re missing the likes of Rachel and Genevieve manipulating everyone at every turn. I’ll vomit if one of them wins, so I think I’ll cancel my DVR recording. 
 

People who immunity challenge their way to the end never win. Juries respect strategy and gamesmanship more. See: Kelly Wigglesworth.

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Chicago Redshirt

Chicago Redshirt

(edited)

While I suck at statistics and while I might agree that the chances that Kyle literally would win each immunity challenge to final 4 are low, I do feel compelled to point out flaws in Andy's analysis.

Point 1: It's doubtful that it is a coin flip for Kyle to win individual immunity on any given time. I don't have the list of who won individual immunities besides him this season memorized, but it seems like the only people who have beaten him out thus far are Gabe (who has been booted), Sue and now Rachel. Even in the ones Kyle lost, he came pretty darn close to winning.  Also, booting Genevieve instead of Kyle would mean that Kyle would have to win immunities to get to F6, F5, and F4. If he makes it to F4, he can then either win, get brought into the F3 by someone stupid enough to do that (Survivor historians may remember the season where someone got talked into bringing someone to the F3 by saying that he wanted to only sit next to the best, only to get wriggedy-wriggedy wreckt by that person) OR make fire faster than another person in the F4. So with the premise that he is 50/50 to win any given immunity challenge, he has more like a 75 percent chance of making the F3 if he is in F4 (50 percent of winning immunity out right plus essentially 25 percent chance, representing that in the 50 percent of times he's forced to make fire that he beats whoever he goes up against 50 percent of the time). And again, maybe I'm giving Kyle too much credit, but I would bet that he's better at making fire than anyone.

Point 2: Even assuming that the math were correct, there would be the possibility of him defying the odds. A 6.25 percent chance of a near-guaranteed loss is more than should be acceptable when it could be 100 percent eliminated.

Point 3: Even assuming that the math were correct and Kyle couldn't defy the odds, there still would be a chance an idol, an advantage or someone with Big Move Fever could save him.

Point 4: There is no particular overall upside in booting Genevieve over Kyle now. Genevieve may be annoying and sneaky, but as far as the castaways know, she has little to no ability to win an immunity challenge, she has no immunity idol or advantage, she has no allies who might plausibly stick their necks out for her or provide her with one,and she's on the wrong side of the numbers. There is no reason to think that Genevieve would be able to survive the votes at F7 or F6, let alone get to F3. For that to happen with 2 people openly talking about wanting her gone and with her on the outs with just one other person would require at least two people from the alliance of 5 flipping in support of her. There would be the limited upside of someone being able to say "I helped blindside Genevieve" or lobby Kyle for his vote if Kyle went to the jury eventually. But it's not even a power move because Genevieve knew it was either her or Kyle. It seems like it would backfire as a point on a Survivor Resume. 

I'm not sure which I would prefer: if Andy voted Genevieve because he thought that he was successfully leading a blindside of her or if Andy was hedging against the possibility that Kyle did in fact have an idol

Edited by Chicago Redshirt
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Notabug

Notabug

(edited)
12 hours ago, Jodithgrace said:

It IS unlikely that Kyle would have won all four of the remaining immunity challenges, but Andy did use flipping a coin as an example to prove his point. 

Also, his estimation that there was only a 6.25% chance that Kyle would win 4 in a row was based on chance, random events like a coin flip; not events that require skill and savvy like the immunity challenges.  That is why flipping a coin is not comparable to winning immunity.  Sure, there was a decent chance that Kyle would not win all 4 remaining challenges, but it was far higher than 6% that he would. Kyle had won 4 out of 7 challenges thus far, I think, no one else had even come close to that.

Edited by Notabug
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Rodney

Rodney

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5 hours ago, thesupremediva1 said:

These geniuses are so worried about challenges, but they’re missing the likes of Rachel and Genevieve manipulating everyone at every turn. I’ll vomit if one of them wins, so I think I’ll cancel my DVR recording.

Uh . . . what's wrong with Rachel?  I can see why Genevieve bothers some people, but not why Rachel does.

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violet and green

violet and green

Kyle and Sol were the ones I was rooting for, and Sol most of all, so I guess I am far less devastated by Kyle's exit as he should have gone the episode they took the opportunity to get out Sol instead of the challenge beast. I found it galling when it was said several times by Teeny that they had to get Kyle out now while they had the only chance to do it or they'd be fools. No, that was two episodes ago you had that chance.

Of those left, I guess I am rooting for Sue! Island of one. She's nuts, but she's feisty. And by the end of last night's episode I, too, was thinking shut up about your family and being a "family man", Kyle! It's admirable and all, especially given his own background in foster care, but if he went on and on and on about his family like that at camp for 20 days, I'd be going nuts, too.

Sue for the win! Sue, or maybe Andy. Hahaha.

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Rodney

Rodney

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(edited)
2 hours ago, violet and green said:

Of those left, I guess I am rooting for Sue! Island of one. She's nuts, but she's feisty. And by the end of last night's episode I, too, was thinking shut up about your family and being a "family man", Kyle! It's admirable and all, especially given his own background in foster care, but if he went on and on and on about his family like that at camp for 20 days, I'd be going nuts, too.

Sue for the win!

That's where I am, too.  Sue's one of my rooting interests.  And while I did like Kyle, hearing about him being a family man in almost every episode was starting to grate on me.

Aside from Sue, I'm also rooting for Rachel and Teeny.

9 hours ago, jsm1125 said:

I think that, after this episode, Caroline and Rachel are the only ones to not have received a vote against them.

A great feat for both of them to have accomplished that after eleven episodes.  Rachel's played a good game to have avoided being voted for, but I'm stunned at how no one's noticed Caroline.  She's played a great under-the-radar game and has only been talked about as a target once.  And the fact that she was never floated as a goat who'll be taking up space like Andy and Sue makes me think that she has some game respect amongst the remaining castaways, as well.  Yet no one here ever says a word about her.

Edited by Rodney
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Nashville

Nashville

(edited)

 

On 11/27/2024 at 10:06 PM, Jodithgrace said:

I can’t believe that Andy compared Kyle’s immunity wins to flipping a coin! A coin flip is pure chance, while Kyle’s wins were  skill, with a little luck thrown in to be sure.  I laughed when Caroline said that his math made no sense.

 

15 hours ago, Notabug said:

Also, his estimation that there was only a 6.25% chance that Kyle would win 4 in a row was based on chance, random events like a coin flip; not events that require skill and savvy like the immunity challenges.  That is why flipping a coin is not comparable to winning immunity.  Sure, there was a decent chance that Kyle would not win all 4 remaining challenges, but it was far higher than 6% that he would. Kyle had won 4 out of 7 challenges thus far, I think, no one else had even come close to that.

And this is why you never let your IT folks try explaining stuff to normal humans, because they don’t talk or think the same. 😆  Andy was not talking about individual effort or skill in winning comps, Andy was talking in terms of pure statistical probabilities - and in that respect he was 100% correct. Attempt any purely binary win/lose contest four times in a row and there are 2^4 possible outcomes, of which exactly ONE outcome consists of all four being wins - and a 1-in-16 chance equates to 6.25%.

Edited by Nashville
Too wordy
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PhoneCop

PhoneCop

12 hours ago, Rodney said:

A great feat for both of them to have accomplished that after eleven episodes.  Rachel's played a good game to have avoided being voted for, but I'm stunned at how no one's noticed Caroline.  She's played a great under-the-radar game and has only been talked about as a target once.  And the fact that she was never floated as a goat who'll be taking up space like Andy and Sue makes me think that she has some game respect amongst the remaining castaways, as well.  Yet no one here ever says a word about her.

There's a Caroline?

I kid! But she is kind of lost in the scrum—not quite a purple edit, but definitely overshadowed by the likes of confessional king Sam, the second coming of Liz (AKA Andy), and All That Is Sue. Which is funny because she was a big mystery prior to the season, the one person who couldn't be found on social media and who was completely unknown to the spoilers crowd until people Zaprudered promos and identified her by process of elimination. She has the lowest confessional count of the people remaining, and ADHD isn't a particularly distinctive hook. But hey, she's got three more episodes to pop, so you never know.

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Chicago Redshirt

Chicago Redshirt

5 hours ago, Nashville said:

 

 

And this is why you never let your IT folks try explaining stuff to normal humans, because they don’t talk or think the same. 😆  Andy was not talking about individual effort or skill in winning comps, Andy was talking in terms of pure statistical probabilities - and in that respect he was 100% correct. Attempt any purely binary win/lose contest four times in a row and there are 2^4 possible outcomes, of which exactly ONE outcome consists of all four being wins - and a 1-in-16 chance equates to 6.25%.

But that model is only useful for something like coin flips where the probability of each binary outcome is roughly 50 percent, and where nothing else can impact each binary choice/probability.

Otherwise, it would be correct to say that there's only a 6.25 percent chance of the sun setting in the west four days in a row (or less, I guess because there are at least four cardinal directions in which it could set), Michael Jordan winning 4 games of 1-on-1 versus a toddler or the like.

It is impressive and scary that Kyle's actual performance in immunity challenges is better than 50 percent, according to someone who posted above - 4 out of 7,

But that could rise and fall depending on the nature of the challenges. There might be some challenges that Kyle was absolutely weak in. (Since Survivor tends to recycle many of the same sorts of challenges, I tend to doubt it.) There could be some challenge that is even more in Kyle's wheelhouse than the four he won. (This is a test to see who can annoy Sue the most just by existing. Survivors ready? Go!). There could be some way in which the remaining contestants conspire against him, like Liz did to prevent Maria from winning immunity last season.

And also hypothetically, as his competition gets booted, it should be easier for Kyle to win. Facing a given challenge versus 7 other people should generally be tougher than facing the same challenge against 4 of those same people.

All this is to say that it's wrong to present it as a 6.25 percent chance of such an immunity run. It might actually be smaller. It might be larger. But presenting it as a valid statistical analysis seems as flawed to me on its face as the old statement that Peachy has thankfully abandoned that people will be "guaranteed a 1-in-x" chance at a million dollars. 

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Notabug

Notabug

6 hours ago, Nashville said:

 

 

And this is why you never let your IT folks try explaining stuff to normal humans, because they don’t talk or think the same. 😆  Andy was not talking about individual effort or skill in winning comps, Andy was talking in terms of pure statistical probabilities - and in that respect he was 100% correct. Attempt any purely binary win/lose contest four times in a row and there are 2^4 possible outcomes, of which exactly ONE outcome consists of all four being wins - and a 1-in-16 chance equates to 6.25%.

Yup.  That's exactly what he did and it was totally incorrect when applied to the actual situation.  Amongst other things, the number of possible outcomes of each immunity challenge is a lot more than 2; since all of the players have a chance of winning, it's not 50:50 even if it was random.  He'd have been a little closer to the real outcome if he'd used tossing a die and betting on which side would come up since there are more than 2 outcomes; but, even then, Kyle was not winning challenges by chance.  I presume Andy's duties as a research assistant do not include statistical analysis of the data. Based on what I've seen, his forte is probably sweeping the floor at the end of the day.

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ljenkins782

ljenkins782

On 11/28/2024 at 10:14 AM, jsm1125 said:

Does anyone else think that Genevieve’s diction sometimes resembles that of Parvati’s? 

Yes, it's the same oversized veneers that makes them talk around their teeth in a similar way. 

Sue's lip fillers seem to make her purse her lips constantly, I hope she watches this and learns maybe less is more there.

Quote

I liked Kyle, so I was bummed to see him go.  However, if this FINALLY shuts Sue up about her ridiculous vendetta against him, I'll take it.  Lord, she's been insufferable about it.

I know Andy has been amping Sue up more, but is the impetus for this massive grudge simply because Kyle wrote Sue's name down at that one tribal council? Not since Rupert tried to choke out Jonny FairPlay for thinking he voted for him has someone taken a single vote this badly. 

At the same time, Sue seems like an extremely emotional player and Kyle didn't play up to her the way some of the others are doing. Gabe specifically catered to Sue to gain her as an ally, Caroline has been playing the mother/daughter angle with her, Andy sought her out to fuel her Kyle hate which got her interested in him, and now Rachel won her over by telling her about her advantage. Kyle, outside of voting for her that one time, didn't really seem to have too much interaction with her and that seems to have poured gasoline on her hate.

Quote

As much as Kyle was a comp beast, the goodbye was the real reason they couldn't let him get to the end. He would have won in a landslide.

All during Kyle's goodbye, I was remembering Gabe's quote from his exit interview where he was absolutely positive he'd be asked to return and that if he didn't, someone should get fired.

No Gabe, KYLE is the one absolutely guaranteed to be asked back. They probably told him to leave his bags packed at Ponderosa and just hang out until they start filming the next season.

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iMonrey

iMonrey

5 minutes ago, ljenkins782 said:

No Gabe, KYLE is the one absolutely guaranteed to be asked back. They probably told him to leave his bags packed at Ponderosa and just hang out until they start filming the next season.

I dunno. He was nice and all, but I don't see anyone in this cast lighting the world on fire with demands for a return trip. If anyone, probably the show would ask Andy (God help us) because they clearly think he's great TV. And maybe Sue. And, a longshot, but possibly Jon Lovett for pure celeb status.

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