S42.E11: Battle Royale

[Taeolas]

It's still manipulating the game, but if the Do or Die is basically a fake and the contestant will always win regardless, then that may nudge it back down towards "putting an immunity idol where someone you want will find it" territory. And it would be a way to save someone who might otherwise be on the bubble and isn't a Challenge Monster.

If that is actually the case, we're in some serious gray territory here, and if whispers were to get to the FTC, I'm sure Jeffy would have some serious explaining to do.

[peachmangosteen]

1 hour ago, Taeolas said:

But using the Do or Die boxes to directly chose who stays or goes, that is approaching Quiz Show levels of manipulation and would probably run them afoul of the FTC or FCC or whoever else monitors American game shows. (Even if technically Survivor is probably a Fijian production now).

I know Big Brother is not considered a game show in that sense and thus doesn't have to follow those rules so I think it's safe to assume Survivor doesn't either.

[seacliffsal]

6 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I know Big Brother is not considered a game show in that sense and thus doesn't have to follow those rules so I think it's safe to assume Survivor doesn't either.

But, but, but...Jeff just told us in this episode that the participants understood that Survivor was a game.... I get so confused (in my previous post I referenced that he also referred to "the monster," "social experiment," etc.).

[Tango64]

6 hours ago, Taeolas said:

Thinking more on the "Do or Die" challenge; part of me does still feel it is rigged; but looking at the bigger picture, if it was rigged, it would be REALLY dangerous for the show, since it means the producers would be directly affecting who stays or goes. If word of such manipulation leaked out from a legit source, it would probably kill the show.

Hiding advantages and HII's where preferred players are more likely to find them is one thing, since other players still have a chance to get them. The thumbs are on the scales but only slightly. 

But using the Do or Die boxes to directly chose who stays or goes, that is approaching Quiz Show levels of manipulation and would probably run them afoul of the FTC or FCC or whoever else monitors American game shows. (Even if technically Survivor is probably a Fijian production now). 

 

Since there are actual prizes involved in Survivor, it is expected to be a 'fair' game show no matter how much we viewers speculate about producer interference. And Jeff/Production choosing who stays/goes with Do or Die would break that fairness even more than it seems on the surface. 

 

(Contrast this to a show like Masked Singer, where it pretends to be a game show, but it is obviously scripted out the wazoo, and there are no 'real' prizes on the line; it's basically just a chance for fading celebrities to get some new spotlight time).

 

Frankly, with more thought on it, I'm surprised Survivor did a "Do or Die" challenge like they did, because it is so obvious that it COULD be manipulated. The boxes make it seem like it could be more in play than is obvious. They could have just done it as 3 cards on the table (Maybe stick them on fake coconuts or rocks to give them more weight), survivor picks one, Jeff flips one of the others, and asks if they want a switch, and the final chosen one is flipped. That method could theoretically still be manipulated (as any fan of Penn and Teller's Fool Us could tell you), but it is much more difficult, making the choice more real. 

By putting the choice in boxes, it makes the choice device more complicated and more suspicious and harder to prove that it is a fair choice.  

Speaking of Penn and Teller's Fool Us, it's pretty commonly accepted by fans that more than one magic trick there depended on tiny printers that could be hidden in something and remotely triggered to print the right image just before the reveal.

Not saying Jeff did that, but I think it can be done.

[meep.meep]

21 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

 

BUT...I suspect that Mike could outsmug Edgardo, and I would probably literally yell at the screen "SERVES YOU RIGHT! SERVES YOU RIGHT!" if Jeff ever said "You didn't say your phrase immediately when you were ordered to, and therefore your idol never activated."

I'm the same way.  Isn't it funny how obsessed we all are with Mike failing to say the phrase.  I hope Omar tries to play the thing and we find out for sure.

[ArtFossil]

Finally watching the episode. When Lindsay and Drea started whining about Jonathan, all I could think of was imagining what shape they'd be in if he weren't in the game. If they were even still in the game. 

If they can't even untangle a net they deserve to go hungry.

Edited May 14, 2022 by ArtFossil

[Guest]

1 hour ago, ArtFossil said:

Finally watching the episode. When Lindsay and Drea started whining about Jonathan, all I could think of was imagining what shape they'd be in if he weren't in the game. If they were even still in the game. 

If they can't even untangle a net they deserve to go hungry.

Lindsay and Drea both strike me as very capable women, so to assume they'd be in dire straits if Jonathan wasn't around seems like a stretch. Having some trouble with a net doesn't mean they're helpless. People have been making it through Survivor for years now without big strong dudes doing all the providing. No one starved when Ozzy or Rupert weren't around, either.

And honestly they're all doing their share of whining at this point, Jonathan included. The endgame is here and the stress is taking its toll. Besides, according to Drea's exit interviews, she and Jonathan cleared the air about the net incident, both admitted fault, and they hugged it out.

[Nashville]

16 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

No, the advantage amulet people would have to use them in conjunction with one another. 

So according to this, Lindsay MUST use the amulet advantage at next tribal council because it fizzles when there are fewer than six. 

It's interesting that she didn't take her Shot in the Dark. In an EW interview, she basically said she just didn't think of it.

Gotcha - forgot the “in conjunction” part.

[Nashville]

On 5/12/2022 at 2:29 AM, Mediocre Gatsby said:

He gave it to Omar, and even speculated that there was no reason Omar might give it back to him after the tribal council. 

My point was: yes, Mike gave Omar an idol - but what if that idol was actually worthless because Mike screwed up its activation?

[JH Lipton]

21 hours ago, Taeolas said:

Since there are actual prizes involved in Survivor, it is expected to be a 'fair' game show no matter how much we viewers speculate about producer interference. And Jeff/Production choosing who stays/goes with Do or Die would break that fairness even more than it seems on the surface. 

Standards and Practices do not apply to "reality" shows, which are allowed to change rules at production's whim.  Ptroduction has definitely influenced who votes for whom, but I don't think they'd rig this game, although I think that they legally could.

12 hours ago, meep.meep said:

I'm the same way.  Isn't it funny how obsessed we all are with Mike failing to say the phrase.  I hope Omar tries to play the thing and we find out for sure.

I can't find anything that says that the phrase must be said at the next challenge after being found, just that the advantage is not activated until all three phrases have been said.  I found this on https://survivor.fandom.com/wiki/Beware_Advantage
 

Quote

While it was initially mandatory for the finders to state their phrases at every Immunity Challenge, this requirement was waived midway into Survivor 41[2] and appeared to be unenforced throughout Survivor 42.

So I think that the idol is still active.

[DEL901]

While I would love Mike’s idol not to have been properly activated, I think the show would have been building the anticipation for weeks by hinting or even out right telling the audience that his idol wasn’t properly activated.   

[bankerchick]

6 hours ago, JH Lipton said:

I can't find anything that says that the phrase must be said at the next challenge after being found, just that the advantage is not activated until all three phrases have been said. 

I re-watched the episode in question and quoted the clue Mike received in the thread for that week, but don't remember when it was so can't find it now.  The clue was clear:  the phrase must be said at the next immunity challenge.  It then went on to say that once all three phrases were said at the same immunity challenge, the idols would be activated.  There was nothing in the note about having to say the phrase at every challenge.

ETA:  found it:

OK, perhaps I am splitting hairs but I just rewound and this is exactly what the note says:  'At the next immunity challenge you must say a secret phrase in front of the other players.  If another player has found their idol they will reply with their secret phrase.  Once all three phrases have been said at the same immunity challenge, then all three idols have power.'

Whether or not the powers-that-be decide to enforce that particular point, it was clearly written in the note and the players (and viewers) should expect the clues to mean what they say.

Edited May 14, 2022 by bankerchick

[whiporee]

I think the reason people are so upbeat is the season is soooo much shorter. Normally by the time you'd get down to six or seven, people really were just flat-out exhausted, dehydrated and very hungry. We're 20 days in -- barely half a normal season. We might have not even made the merge yet. The killer fatigue has not had the chance to take them over. So Drea can be happy for everyone -- she made it pretty far. Also, i don't think the bonds are nearly as strong as they would have been in a longer season -- they just don't know people for as long a time. Taking away 13 of 39 days is a lot to lose, and I think the happy gameplay stuff you see is a result that people aren't really suffering yet, of they do at all. 

[SG429]

45 minutes ago, bankerchick said:

Whether or not the powers-that-be decide to enforce that particular point, it was clearly written in the note and the players (and viewers) should expect the clues to mean what they say.

Mike was convinced by Daniel(?) that it didn't really mean what it said, though the warning on the wrapper and the instruction itself is very clear, Chekhov's gun so to speak. Daniel's been out for a while and obviously Mike hasn't given it a 2nd thought, which means we're in for a good b&w flashback before Jeff tosses it into the fire. The only question remaining is who gets burned.

Edited May 14, 2022 by SG429
evading grammar police

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, whiporee said:

I think the reason people are so upbeat is the season is soooo much shorter. Normally by the time you'd get down to six or seven, people really were just flat-out exhausted, dehydrated and very hungry. We're 20 days in -- barely half a normal season. We might have not even made the merge yet. The killer fatigue has not had the chance to take them over. So Drea can be happy for everyone -- she made it pretty far. Also, i don't think the bonds are nearly as strong as they would have been in a longer season -- they just don't know people for as long a time. Taking away 13 of 39 days is a lot to lose, and I think the happy gameplay stuff you see is a result that people aren't really suffering yet, of they do at all. 

Except for Jonathan, of course. He's suffering more than anyone, poor thing!

[whiporee]

14 minutes ago, tracyscott76 said:

Except for Jonathan, of course. He's suffering more than anyone, poor thing!

I mean, he is. His body burns more calories; he has almost no body fat for energy reserves. He's been probably the most active person out there in terms of always trying to fish and find food. He knows he's perpetually on the block so he can't afford to sit out immunity challenges. I can understand his resentment. He was also instrumental in his four still being together and getting rewards early on. I can see how he'd be resentful -- he thinks he's done a lot, and then gets shit on for not doing more. I don't know that he's justified, because he made every choice he's made, but I can understand it wearing on someone. 

Like I said above, this version of the game is a lot less about endurance or even pushing yourself, and much more about scheming and conniving. I wonder if on a go-forward they will bother casting the people like Jonathan or Roxroy, because the atheletic advantage doesn't seem to be as important or even good for the game.

Edited May 14, 2022 by whiporee

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, whiporee said:

I mean, he is. His body burns more calories; he has almost no body fat for energy reserves. He's been probably the most active person out there in terms of always trying to fish and find food. He knows he's perpetually on the block so he can't afford to sit out immunity challenges. I can understand his resentment. He was also instrumental in his four still being together and getting rewards early on. I can see how he'd be resentful -- he thinks he's done a lot, and then gets shit on for not doing more. I don't know that he's justified, because he made every choice he's made, but I can understand it wearing on someone. 

I understand it wearing on him, too. But I also understand his attitude wearing on the others. Even if he is suffering the most, it doesn't give him the right to act like the others' suffering is inconsequential. He seems to want it both ways. He wanted to set himself up as the provider and savior, but then he gets irritated when people look to him for help. And when his help consists of basically sitting there saying "you're doing it wrong" (talking about the net specifically), people are going to get kind of snippy in return. Add on to that his "you're not listening to me" act with Lindsay during strategy discussions (where she rightfully pointed out the flaw in his plan), then his food-getting and challenge prowess in the early stages loses a lot of currency. And the non-Orange players have no obligation to him for keeping the Orange four strong.

I mean, props to anyone who can take care of their body in that way and has that much athletic prowess. But that's only one part of the game, and only one part of life. People like Jonathan lose me a bit when they act like it puts them above other people. He is by no means the worst in this regard, but the longer he's out there, the more it's showing.

[Taeolas]

As for Mike's idol; we won't know until someone tries to play it; but I think it will be active despite the reading. 

Some thread long ago, someone posted about how the producers tend to explain the rules. And generally they try to go with the spirit of the rule as the players are interpreting it. 

IF a Survivor asks (off camera) for a rule clarification, then they might need to interpret it more strictly. But if the Survivor assumes that the rules act a certain way and plays that way, then the producers will leave the rules fudged. 

In this case, by a strict reading of the words, Mike probably had to say it at the challenge after he found it. But at the same time I doubt the producers wanted the Tridol ruined right off the bat because someone misread something (goes against the spirit of the advantage). After all if Mike had asked for clarification after missing the first immunity challenge and is told its forever invalid now because he missed a window, then he may decide to just throw the idol away and ruin the Tridol advantage for the other two. 

So yeah, despite the lawyer-reading of those words, I do believe Mike's idol is live. The intent is that it can ONLY have been activated by the 3 phrases being said publicly at an immunity challenge. So saying it at a reward challenge or any other instance where everyone was together wouldn't count; nor would saying it quietly to your tribe while at an Immunity Challenge would count. 

 

Basically there's only one window per week (from one tribal council to the next) where saying the phrase counted. To further limit it to having to be said at the next after discovery, feels a bit too tight a window for activation and feels like it goes against the spirit of the advantage. 

 

In any case, we should know this week if Mike's idol is live or not, since it's the last chance to play it and I doubt Mike (or Omar or whoever has it) will leave it in their pocket when there's no reason NOT to play it. 

[Lantern7]

Erik titled this “Omar Considering His Options”:

 

I liked this from his tweet more: “Omar in the multiverse of madness??”

[fishcakes]

2 hours ago, whiporee said:

he thinks he's done a lot, and then gets shit on for not doing more.

I haven't seen anyone shit on him for not doing more. The only thing we saw was Drea saying, "you could help" after he told her and Lindsay they were untangling the net incorrectly. (And I'm not even sure how something can be untangled incorrectly; it was tangled, they untangled it. Jonathan said it was wrong.)

In any case, he didn't like it early in the season when people were calling him Goliath and giving him all kinds of credit for winning tribe challenges, and now he feels like people don't appreciate him. So as someone sitting on this side of the TV screen, I'm getting pretty tired of Jonathan complaining about how his tribemates aren't viewing him the way he wants them to. Controlling how others perceive you is part of the game; not being able to do it might get you voted out, as it did for Hai, as it could for Romeo and maybe Mike, or it might cause to you lose votes at FTC, which I could see happening with Lindsay if she gets to the end, because she's been playing a solid but UTR game, which isn't always appreciated.

Edited May 14, 2022 by fishcakes

[JH Lipton]

So,,,. I'm  thinking about strategy for the next Tribal Council.  I think that Romeo and Mike are obvious goats -- there's no reason to vote them out now,  Mike especially would be very bitter towards anyone who would dare vote the Master Strategist out.  On, the other hand, Lindsey and Omar are in trouble, I think -- if either get to final with Jonathon, he's toast, but he's more of a threat than the others, so they might want him out.

What would be fun is if Omar has read the instructions (or been told the instructions) for the Beware Advantage and realizes that it's worthless.  So he gives it to someone but doesn't tell them that it's burned (if, in fact, it is).  At TC, the stooge plays the idol and whooops, so sorry, but you're out.  

[peachmangosteen]

5 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

Except for Jonathan, of course. He's suffering more than anyone, poor thing!

Jonathan's 'Why won't anyone consider how hard this is for me?!’ segment was pure comedy and I loved every second of it lol.

[ArtFossil]

8 hours ago, whiporee said:

I mean, he is. His body burns more calories; he has almost no body fat for energy reserves. He's been probably the most active person out there in terms of always trying to fish and find food. He knows he's perpetually on the block so he can't afford to sit out immunity challenges. I can understand his resentment. He was also instrumental in his four still being together and getting rewards early on. I can see how he'd be resentful -- he thinks he's done a lot, and then gets shit on for not doing more. I don't know that he's justified, because he made every choice he's made, but I can understand it wearing on someone. 

Like I said above, this version of the game is a lot less about endurance or even pushing yourself, and much more about scheming and conniving. I wonder if on a go-forward they will bother casting the people like Jonathan or Roxroy, because the atheletic advantage doesn't seem to be as important or even good for the game.

For me (and I may be alone here) I couldn't stand Drea and Lindsay just leaves me completely cold so there's no way I can root for her. Jonathan I love, and I also like Omar, Mike and Maryanne. Hence my sneering at Lindsay and Drea.

[rr2911]

7 hours ago, fishcakes said:

I haven't seen anyone shit on him for not doing more. The only thing we saw was Drea saying, "you could help" after he told her and Lindsay they were untangling the net incorrectly. (And I'm not even sure how something can be untangled incorrectly; it was tangled, they untangled it. Jonathan said it was wrong.)

 

I guess if you are untangling a rope for example, and you should be going right to left and they were going left to right, maybe that's a general idea of what Jon meant?

[Diana Berry]

On 5/11/2022 at 10:18 PM, North of Eden said:

Now that's how you exit! Props to Drea. She made it fun...the polar opposite of Hai's faker than fake exit last week.

With that said...it was an exit that didn't have to happen. Not hat I 'd ever be out there but if I was....not ONE  SINGLE solitary soul would I share with any advantage or idol that I posses...because that leaves you open to a rat like Omar to exploit it. Happens year after year and yet players NEVER learn.

Last year I speculated that a special effects/prop master could have easily made the box display what you want via some hidden stud triggered by Jeff. It might sound tin foily but producers love high drama and they would have known all the scheming of what to do if Lindsey got the flame would be for naught so they triggered it. Just like they probably did last season. Can't prove it but I believe it.

Hard to believe that Orange is all still together...this late in the game. Amazing!

The only thing I do not want to see at this point is a Mike,Romeo and Omar final three. Really don't want any of them to win. The other three I would be very happy with whoever won.

Yes,it is curious about the boxes.  Because like Hai said mathematically the odds say you are supposed to switch.  Yet both players have Not switched and were still safe. I’m going the tin foil hat on it lol.

[Fretful]

On 5/12/2022 at 8:52 AM, susannot said:

Romeo is the goatiest goat I've ever seen and I'm sure most of the other players realize it.

Romeo has been on the wrong side of every vote (except Rocksroy, which was unanimous) since the merge. Personally, I would love to see him go on an immunity run, because he really doesn't need it and it would annoy the other players.   He's being pulled to the end no matter what he does.

10 hours ago, Fretful said:

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Fretful

[iMonrey]

Quote

OK, perhaps I am splitting hairs but I just rewound and this is exactly what the note says:  'At the next immunity challenge you must say a secret phrase in front of the other players.  If another player has found their idol they will reply with their secret phrase.  Once all three phrases have been said at the same immunity challenge, then all three idols have power.'

We debated this endlessly. It's unclear whether it means you must say the secret phrase in order for the idols to be activated, or whether you must say the phrase, period. It may end up being a moot point. There are three idols in play and only six people left. If one of the three without an idol wins the immunity challenge there will only be two choices for voting. Mike (or whoever has it) might not even need to play an idol when it comes down to it.

I honestly think at some point the show is going to out-gimmick itself and we'll have a tribal council where everyone has either an idol or advantage and literally nobody can be voted out. I want to see how the show handles that.

[eelpout]

On 5/12/2022 at 3:07 PM, peachmangosteen said:

I loved Chanelle's face. She just seems over it. Relatable lol.

huh and here I was thinking she just looked pissed off about something the whole time.

I also think the Do or Die boxes are manipulated; either it's a force or each box has both flame and skull via two layers and depending on how Jeff opens it shows one or the other. 

[Lamb18]

I think the boxes have the words "skull" ot "fire" on their backs. The players don't see the back sides of the boxes, just the fronts and sides. Easy for Jeff to pick a skull box.

[CountryGirl]

I think Omar blabbing to Mike about Drea's KIP advantage is going to come back to bite him next episode and I think Drea outing him as the only person left in the game who knew her secret will result in his ouster. I will be curious if he hangs onto the idol and whether or not the idol is actually active as Mike did not say the stupid phrase at the next tribal council as stated in the instructions, but several IC later. It would be kind of hilarious if the idol was never activated.

Maryanne, who continues to fly under the radar but who has a HII that she has kept quiet (good for her!), makes me think she could not only make F3, but be the winner. She has really grown on me this season. Romeo is a lock for F3 as well as a goat. I think Jonathan and Lindsey will be taken out before F3 so that leaves Mike, who comes off as a bit of a goat as well.

I will say that I have appreciated this season so much and the latest tribal, especially, where the players genuinely seem to like and respect each other and there isn't anyone left at this point whom I dislike, a rarity for me. I'm honestly fine with any of the rest winning, except do-nothing but eat rice Romeo, at this point, but I still think it will be Maryanne.

[princelina]

On 5/14/2022 at 12:59 PM, whiporee said:

Like I said above, this version of the game is a lot less about endurance or even pushing yourself, and much more about scheming and conniving. I wonder if on a go-forward they will bother casting the people like Jonathan or Roxroy, because the atheletic advantage doesn't seem to be as important or even good for the game.

Roxroy was athletic?  I thought he was mostly a waste of space in those challenges 😄

[mythoughtis]

I realize there are statistics about switching your choice in a game of chance after one box is revealed.  But I don’t care.  Only 1 box has the flame.  Revealing that one you didn’t pick is a skull does not change what is inside  the box you picked.   You either picked  the flame or the other skull.   Swapping could mean you just swapped the flame for the remaining skull just as much as it could be the other way around. 

[JH Lipton]

On 5/16/2022 at 7:22 AM, CountryGirl said:

I will say that I have appreciated this season so much and the latest tribal, especially, where the players genuinely seem to like and respect each other and there isn't anyone left at this point whom I dislike, a rarity for me. I'm honestly fine with any of the rest winning, except do-nothing but eat rice Romeo, at this point, but I still think it will be Maryanne.

I don't think Mike respects anyone but himself, and Jonathan seems to think he's better than the women.  My preference:
Maryann / Lindsay -- I like them both and think they deserve the win
Omar -- he's played a good game so far
Romeo -- Just because
Jonathan -- I don't care for his ego but he's decent otherwise
Mike -- no gameplay, no awareness of social situations, just no

[Heathrowe]

I'm surprised that people feel so negatively about Mike and think he's a goat. To me, it seems like he is genuinely liked. It doesn't look like Drea or anyone has gone out with any bitter feelings towards him. Hai might even respect him more because...he was playing Mike's game to a certain extent. I think that one challenge where he basically let Drea climb up his back was pretty great. He's not as flashy of a strong man as Jonathan, but he's pretty strong. 

Will be interesting to see if Omar has a target on his back next week or if he shrugs it off. He is SO good at making himself seem non-threatening. 

Lindsay - she is totally right. She is letting her competitive nature take over and try to go head to head with Jonathan. That said, I can see her in the final 3.

Jonathan - he is fascinating to watch. I do think he is starving and suffering physically. It is like watching a big lion/cat go from being fat and happy and easy going to hungry and snarling and kind of dangerous. (Dangerous to himself - not to anyone else - I think his social game is really suffering as he gets more irritable.) He is only going to hang on if he wins all the immunity challenges.

Maryann - I can see her in the final 3. I think she does need to do something or she will be a goat. I wouldn't mind her for the winner though, because I think she is smart and resilient.

I was sad to see Drea go - she was awesome. And gosh - she is so, so beautiful! Wow. A great exit like that reminds you that it is a game, and that even losing - it seems like an incredible experience. Nice to see that sense of play come out. I think Hai was a little more sarcastic in his goodbye.

It's a fun season. I agree that there are too many idols and twists. I admit that I don't know what is happening for the most part and I know who has what? So I'm sure actually being in the game feels like total chaos.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SVNBob]

14 hours ago, mythoughtis said:

I realize there are statistics about switching your choice in a game of chance after one box is revealed.  But I don’t care.  

You not caring doesn't change the statistics. 

It's still better mathematically to switch.

[Nashville]

6 hours ago, mythoughtis said:

I realize there are statistics about switching your choice in a game of chance after one box is revealed.  But I don’t care.  Only 1 box has the flame.  Revealing that one you didn’t pick is a skull does not change what is inside  the box you picked.   You either picked  the flame or the other skull.   Swapping could mean you just swapped the flame for the remaining skull just as much as it could be the other way around. 

So far as the Monty Hall Problem solution goes, that’s kinda the point:

1. Your initial pick was one of three options, meaning you had a 33% chance of making the right pick  - and a corresponding 67% chance of picking wrong (i.e., the Flame being in one of the boxes you didn’t pick).
2. Jiffy then reveals the contents of one of the non-chosen boxes - but that subsequent revelation doesn’t change those odds; your originally chosen box still doesn’t have more than its initial 33% chance of being the correct pick.
3. Since one of the two originally unchosen options has now been revealed, though - and eliminated from consideration - the entirety of that 67% chance now resides in the one remaining box you didn’t initially pick.

This is why statistical probability indicates* you should always take up the host on their offer to swap boxes; in so doing you trade your original 33%-chance-box for the sole remaining 67%-chance-box.

* Indicates, but doesn’t dictate; they’re only probabilities, after all, not certainties.

 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Nashville said:

So far as the Monty Hall Problem solution goes, that’s kinda the point:

1. Your initial pick was one of three options, meaning you had a 33% chance of making the right pick  - and a corresponding 67% chance of picking wrong (i.e., the Flame being in one of the boxes you didn’t pick).
2. Jiffy then reveals the contents of one of the non-chosen boxes - but that subsequent revelation doesn’t change those odds; your originally chosen box still doesn’t have more than its initial 33% chance of being the correct pick.
3. Since one of the two originally unchosen options has now been revealed, though - and eliminated from consideration - the entirety of that 67% chance now resides in the one remaining box you didn’t initially pick.

This is why statistical probability indicates* you should always take up the host on their offer to swap boxes; in so doing you trade your original 33%-chance-box for the sole remaining 67%-chance-box.

* Indicates, but doesn’t dictate; they’re only probabilities, after all, not certainties.

 

Considering that so far with this challenge, the Monty Hall Problem has played out according to the probabilities 0% of the time, I kind of sympathize with the "I don't care" approach (I realize that it's only been played twice, but still). Sometimes, in the moment, sticking with your first choice just feels right.

It would be interesting to see, now that these have aired and more people are aware of the statistics, if switching would happen more often and if the results would eventually fall more in line with the pure probabilities. But that would mean using this twist again and fuck that idea straight to hell.

[Nashville]

4 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

Considering that so far with this challenge, the Monty Hall Problem has played out according to the probabilities 0% of the time

 

4 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

It would be interesting to see, now that these have aired and more people are aware of the statistics, if switching would happen more often and if the results would eventually fall more in line with the pure probabilities.
 

Statistically speaking, the Monty Hall’s failure to read the room is already kind of trippy; the chances of TWO back-to-back correct ORIGINAL picks are something like  11% - but that’s why they’re called probabilities, not certainties.  And as you very astutely observed, we’re currently talking about a statistical sample of precisely 2.  
And sometimes people hit the lottery too - against far worse odds - but I still wouldn’t count on doing so as my retirement plan.  😉

 

4 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

But that would mean using this twist again and fuck that idea straight to hell.

No argument THERE whatsoever.

[PurpleTentacle]

I already said a few episode threads ago, I wouldn't worry about Jonathan in a normal season, that he'd fall apart around day 30, but that with this short season he had a change. Guess I overestimated him a bit. What is it now? Day 20? Guess he is still able to win immunity challanges, but he's far from peak condition. Coming into this game with no fat and only a heap of calorie burning muscle, not the best strategy. Would it really have been the apocalypse if he had packed on a few pounds of fat over those muscles before coming out to play the game? I guess it would have been for his ego...

Ugh the stupid do or die twist again. Kill me now. I'm just glad that yet again, nobody went home because of it. If I never see this twist again, it will be too soon.

Had Drea already used her last ditch effort dice? I was surprised she didn't use it this episode.