S30.E12: Holding On For Dear Life

[Alapaki]

The list of "questions these folks should be asking but aren't" (or, at least, we aren't shown them asking) is pretty long. 

 

Like, for starters, "hey, what about that HII from the WC camp?"

[pennben]

It's funny, I think we have a couple of folks who thought they were playing for third place (waves "hi" to Dan/Will), who may suddenly realize, holy hell, I might be able to get second place money....game on!

[blackwing]

I think Rodney is all gym muscles. They look good, but don't exactly accomplish much. Mike, OTOH, looks like someone who actually USES his body in similar ways, and often. As with most things, Rodney is all talk. 

It's surprising, because I believe the Rot is a construction worker.  I recall him saying he works for himself.  His bio says he is a general contractor, which I take it to mean he does random construction jobs on a private basis (build an addition to my house, build me a shed, etc.)  You'd think that the muscles would actually work.  Mike is listed as an Oil Drill Worker, which I think means he's one of the guys that operates the machine that drills for oil, like we saw on "Dallas".  On paper it seems like the Rot would use his muscles more.

 

By the way, here is the Rot's profile pic:

 

Looks absolutely nothing like him.  The face looks leaner and less round.  Is it possible that he actually put weight on during the show?

[Alapaki]

I think Rodney is all gym muscles. They look good, but don't exactly accomplish much. Mike, OTOH, looks like someone who actually USES his body in similar ways, and often. As with most things, Rodney is all talk.

 

 

But this IC was a completely non-functional (in a real-world sense) physical challenge.  Strong upper-body strength (even "gym-strength") ought to help in this situation.  I suspect that Rodney's problem there was that he's probably felt the biggest drop in energy without the GNC store he probably carries around in a cooler every day in the real world, and he had more substantial weight to hold up than some of the others.

 

I don't think his losing this IC in particular was a reflection on his actual strength, although there is certainly an endurance component to the challenge that puts someone with predominantly fast-twitch muscle fibers at a dis-advantage.

[Turtle]

What's really nauseating is that some combination of Will, Rodney and Dan will be in the final three, and will spend the rest of their lives convinced they got there because they played brilliant games.

Not if they read this forum, they won't...

I'm pretty sure Dan thinks that Will is the goat, and wants to take him to the end. Dan is a superfan, after all, and a master strategist.

[Alapaki]

Looks absolutely nothing like him.  The face looks leaner and less round.  Is it possible that he actually put weight on during the show?

 

 

Do we know when they take the bio pix (i.e. before starting the game or after elimination)?

[Lingo]

Among the many things that the editors haven't done this season is give any indication if the remaining players actually realize that Dan is a goat and that Will is a walrus (This. Yes. Hi-fives to you, cooksdelight). It seems like a reasonable assumption that, much like Russell and Kass before them, neither of them realize that about themselves, but do Rodney and Carolyn and Sierra actually see this? The fact that Dan received votes at the previous TC and that his name was floated again for this one makes me question if they are aware of the fact that the current jury members would almost certainly not vote for him. But the majority alliance has been so intensely focused-- at least that we've seen-- on short-term objectives and threats that it's hard to say what their actual end-game strategies might be.

 

I was thinking the same thing about Dan and Will. I mean, we know Sierra and probably other women have no love for Dan, but how do other players think of him? With all the screen time he's been getting I'm actually a little worried he might win somehow!  And Will: WE THE AUDIENCE may hate him because he screamed at Shirin and flipped on the No-Collars.  But the other players in the game didn't much like Shirin or the No-Collars either.  They may actually like Will.

 

I'm guessing it was a blind draw of rocks or something to see who gets to be captain.

 

Yeah. Dalton Ross asked Jeff about it this week, and Jeff explained how it works and why it's not usually shown (just lack of air-time): http://www.ew.com/article/2015/05/06/survivor-host-jeff-probst-rodneys-big-birthday-drama

 

 

Why on earth are these idiots all sitting there grinning about getting rid of Tyler when what they should really be thinking is: Why is Carolyn willing to vote out her up-to-this-point closest ally? She's too smart not to have a good secondary plan to go to, and they should be wondering what that is.

 

I know, the answer is in the question: idiots.

 

Well Tyler and Carolyn made a point of hiding their alliance early on.  Though I'd be very surprised if no one suspects the last two White-Collars were aligned.

[Alapaki]

Was there been any indication that they were closer to each other than to Rodney, beyond the assumptions people might make based on their WC tribe origins?

 

 

Not that we've seen.  

 

But both Rodney and Dan had reason to believe that they are in an alliance with Carolyn/Tyler/Will.  We've seen this from Rodney since the merge, and we saw Dan talk about in on the "burger . . . with cheese . . . and bacon" reward yacht.  They at least should each be questioning why Carolyn is willing to go after Tyler before either Rodney or Dan, respectively.

[Alapaki]

I was thinking the same thing about Dan and Will. I mean, we know Sierra and probably other women have no love for Dan, but how do other players think of him? With all the screen time he's been getting I'm actually a little worried he might win somehow!  And Will: WE THE AUDIENCE may hate him because he screamed at Shirin and flipped on the No-Collars.  But the other players in the game didn't much like Shirin or the No-Collars either.  They may actually like Will.

 

 

It's true that the remaining players may not despise Will, because it's a principle of nature that "sewage finds its own level".  But they should know that no on on the jury can stand Will.  Thus I think they do have a basis to realize that Will is a goat.

 

I'm not sure they were all privy to Dan's repugnant condescension to Shirin while they were playing, although presumably Shirin brought them up to speed after she was eliminated.  It's possible they don't realize how much of a goat Dan actually is.  But, at the same time, his mystery advantage has to make them worry (since they don't know whether it's just an advantage he can use to protect himself or whether it's something that he could use to target them).

[blackwing]

Do we know when they take the bio pix (i.e. before starting the game or after elimination)?

I would assume they get taken prior to starting the game.  The reason why I say this is that during the Brains/Brawn/Beauty season, the picture of LJ on the website looked like the LJ on the show, and not the actor who played him post-elimination who was seen in the jury and at the finale.

 

Regarding the Rot and his lack of energy... whatever happened to the trail mix and whatnot that Will got that he shared with everyone?  Did they go through all of it in one day?  One of the items in there was some kind of electrolyte powder, which I think is like powdered Gatorade.  I guess they went through all of it and now the Rot is running on empty.  I think I might have even heard that he's stahving and 150 pounds and been stuck on the beach for 30 days doing the same damn thing.  Oh, and it's his damn birthday.

[Charlesman]

Did Tyler say at TC that he would be surprised if he went home? I was half-listening at that point and didn't rewind to check.

 

 

Yes, more or less, he thought he was safe. He and the other guys were convinced Mike would not play his idol and would go.

 

He thought about it, I think that was some gamesmanship. He was asked straight out by Probst "Would you be surprised if it was you going home tonight?" Tyler thought for a good second or two. I think his honest answer was "no", but he stopped himself before saying it out loud, because that wasn't the signal he wanted to send to his tribemates in the last seconds before the vote. The only answer to this question is "Yes, I would be."

[riley702]

I've read Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.  Now I want to see Gone with the Wind and Zombies.

Queen Victoria: Demon Hunter was better. Gory and funny.

[Lantern7]

I know I'm late, but I have to weigh in. If I had to classify Will's status in the game, it's probably "chicken." As in, "Cut off the head, the rest of the body thinks its still alive for a few minutes."

 

Also, can't get enough Rodney hate. Barring a Day 39 grilling from Shirin, I'd like other Boston reality stars to beat him up. Can you imagine Rob holding him while CT works his gut and face? Wicked good times.

[peachmangosteen]

it's possible since he [Mike] does seem pretty aware of the don't piss off people if you need their jury votes rule of gameplay.

 

Not really IMO. He's made a lot of social mistakes. He's lucky that he's surrounded by so many egregious dicks because otherwise he'd be toast in a jury vote.

[Andromeda]

I had to go back and search for Sierra's eyebrows to see what everyone is talking about. I see it now, and the do look weird. Are they permanent darker tattoos with light-blond hair growing out of them? I really noticed it in the bright sunlight scene after they won the challenge, when she's telling Rodney why they're not giving it to his whiny ass.

It's surprising, because I believe the Rot is a construction worker.  I recall him saying he works for himself.  His bio says he is a general contractor, which I take it to mean he does random construction jobs on a private basis (build an addition to my house, build me a shed, etc.)  You'd think that the muscles would actually work.  Mike is listed as an Oil Drill Worker, which I think means he's one of the guys that operates the machine that drills for oil, like we saw on "Dallas".  On paper it seems like the Rot would use his muscles more.

I saw a show with some of the most dangerous jobs, and oil drill worker was one of them. The guys have to swing really heavy drills around and line them up. It's dangerous, and taxing. I don't know if Mike is one of those guys, though. If he is, he probably has amazing stamina, which going-to-the-gym Rodney lacks.

Edited May 8, 2015 by Andromeda

[needschocolate]

Caroline is in a great place - no one left in the game knows about her idol, she is the only one, besides Dan, who knows about Dan's bonus vote, the only one with a decent chance to beat her in a challenge is Mike. Plus, nobody seems to be thinking about targeting her. 

 

Mike, needs to win every immunity for the rest of the season or he is gone.  Or he needs to find the idol, if it is re-hidden or find the one the BCs never found. 

 

The rest of them are goats.  Dan and Will are the greatest goats since Hantz.  But Rodney and Sierra would be goats in any other season.  Purely based on numbers, we have the unfortunate chance of having a goat win a million dollars, just because there may nothing but goats at the final tribal.

Edited May 8, 2015 by needschocolate

[Zuleikha]

I do want to give the players credit for this much: the eviction order is clearly not as clear as we all thought. Dan and Sierra apparently were right not to think that they were on the bottom of the power alliance because Mike used his HII but Tyler's the one who went home, not either of them. I think Mike's gone if he doesn't win immunity because he's an obvious threat to win, but I'm less confident about everyone else.

 

I remember back in Jud's season, I was amazed by how the editors were able to make a very unpredictable season feel predictable and boring. I think this season has something of the same effect. Up through Shirin, we were basically in a Pagonging so okay, they didn't have as much to work with (although it may have been nice to see how clueless the NC members were about what was going on and what Will was doing to muddy the waters). But now we appear to be in a chaotic scramble, and yet it still feels predictable.

[jbrecken]

What would have happened if Carolyn had played her idol for Tyler?  Would it have counted as a 5-way tie with zero votes for every eligible candidate and triggered a revote?

[blackwing]

Yes.  There would be a revote and nobody would be able to vote for Mike or Tyler.  

[pennben]

 

I do want to give the players credit for this much: the eviction order is clearly not as clear as we all thought. Dan and Sierra apparently were right not to think that they were on the bottom of the power alliance because Mike used his HII but Tyler's the one who went home, not either of them.

 

I don't agree.  I think Mike took off the head of what he thought the alliance was.  Mike is not part of that alliance.  That he didn't consider taking out Dan or Sierra seems to seal that, at least in some folks eyes, they are at the bottom.

[Dewey Decimate]

I don't agree.  I think Mike took off the head of what he thought the alliance was.  Mike is not part of that alliance.  That he didn't consider taking out Dan or Sierra seems to seal that, at least in some folks eyes, they are at the bottom.

 

I dunno. Probably giving him too much credit, but I think Mike targeted Tyler because he's Mike's #1 challenge competition, and Mike knows he's absolutely next to go without immunity. Mama C is also a physical threat, but I'm thinking Mike and Tyler were most similar in the body types that will do well in, ex. something that combines balance and strength. Who's Mike up against now? Glamour-muscle Roidney? I can't even name the other two "men" in a discussion of physical prowess (or mental acuity, for that matter).

 

Not to mention that Mike's probably hanging on to that whole BC-strong thing. I'm not sure he or anyone else saw Tyler as the head of an alliance.

[LadyChatts]

I don't know if they would re-hide Mike's idol, since it can only be used up until the final 5 and we are almost to that point.  Considering it took to the merge and Joe getting a clue for the old Escemeca tribe to realize there was in fact an idol hidden out there (despite Jenn playing hers, and Jeff always saying at TC "if anyone has...)  I also wonder why no one is concerned about the WC idol, although maybe we will see that next week since Carolyn is the only WC left.  I was half hoping Tyler would blow her in to everyone.

 

Also agree that under different, better circumstances Mike would be a goner in a final 3.  I still think the guy is a bit of an ass, but it says something he's less of an ass and has done more (that we've seen) than those left.  Except Rodney, whose a bigger ass, but has a good concept of the game.  Just poor people playing it.

[BarneySays]

The worst thing about this episode is what it potentially says about the future.  Tyler's sudden departure, after remaining pretty much absent from the season leaves me to believe that Carolyn will have the same result next week or the week thereafter.  I think Probst's shark jumping prediction may mean an all goat finale:  Rodney, Mike, and Will.  This week's vote went as planned a long time ago.  The BC's carried the interlopers along until the point when it was time to start cutting them loose.  Hence Tyler's departure.  Rodney's big switch is going to be saving Will instead of Sierra (it would serve her passive ass right). An all goat final is the ultimate devolution of the whole game.  Granted, it could be avoided by not casting so many damned goats and contemptibles, but this is a BM production. 

 

The thing I noticed a couple of episodes ago that keeps being driven home is that this is the ugliest group of survivors ever.  Usually the elements bring out a natural beauty (or approximation) in the contestants.  This group, save Mike, keeps getting uglier.  Carolyn is a beast, as re, obviously, Dan and Will.  Rodney has never looked clean from day one.  How can someone be so incapable of cleanliness?  I can['t help but think the ugliness is seeping out through the pores of these undesirables.   

[Zuleikha]

That he didn't consider taking out Dan or Sierra seems to seal that, at least in some folks eyes, they are at the bottom.

How can they be at the bottom when Tyler's gone and they're still here? Mike's just one person, so his opinion about who the head of the alliance is doesn't really matter. If we were all right that Rodney/Will/Carolyn/Tyler were a strong 4-person suballiance in the 6 Strong, they would have controlled which of Dan and Sierra went. But we were wrong. It's much like when everyone thought Jenn/Hali/Joe were this tight 3-person alliance and the BC/WC alliance was because no one could break into Jenn/Hali/Joe only to have exit interviews reveal that Hali and Jenn were both frustrated with Joe; Joe was barely strategizing; Jenn/Hali/Joe thought Will was with them and Shirin wasn't; and Hali was trying to abandon Joe, Jenn, and Shirin in favor of worming her way into an alliance with Mike.

[hyukx3]

They are the bottoms; that's why Carolyn voted her closest ally, Tyler out, b/c he's a threat at Final Tribal, whilst Sierra and Dan are not.

[LadyChatts]

Tyler was never one of Rodney's original 4; that was Kelly.  Carolyn wanted to worm Tyler into the #4 position, and when Kelly got voted off, I assumed he was.  Rodney had no use for the NC, Shirin, or Mike.  I figured he also had no use for Sierra or Dan.  Of course, over time, sitting next to Will and Dan in the end may seem more appealing than sitting next to Tyler.  I don't know what game play, if any, he had, but obviously he was deemed more of a threat, or the next biggest threat.  Which is funny to me, since Joe predicted Tyler and Mike would be the next ones on the chopping block once the NC alliance was gone.  I do think Sierra is at the bottom, and if Mike wins immunity next week, I predict she gets voted off.

 

I never heard Hali say she was going to abandon Jenn, just that they knew Joe would be tough to beat and had no problem voting him off (Jenn said the same thing).  I do remember her saying she was trying to get something started with Mike, which surprised me at the time that they would leave that out.  Now I'm not at all surprised when I learn what was being left out of the editing.  I know Jeff's reasoning for leaving out school yard picks is time constraints, but I'd find that more entertaining than some of the camp footage we've been shown.

Edited May 8, 2015 by LadyChatts

[shercat]

I don't know if they would re-hide Mike's idol, since it can only be used up until the final 5 and we are almost to that point.  Considering it took to the merge and Joe getting a clue for the old Escemeca tribe to realize there was in fact an idol hidden out there (despite Jenn playing hers, and Jeff always saying at TC "if anyone has...)  I also wonder why no one is concerned about the WC idol, although maybe we will see that next week since Carolyn is the only WC left.  I was half hoping Tyler would blow her in to everyone.

 

Also agree that under different, better circumstances Mike would be a goner in a final 3.  I still think the guy is a bit of an ass, but it says something he's less of an ass and has done more (that we've seen) than those left.  Except Rodney, whose a bigger ass, but has a good concept of the game.  Just poor people playing it.

I have been wondering why no one has questioned the WC idol as well. It was brought up right after the merge by Mike and Dan while Tyler and Carolyn were next to them. I remember both Tyler and Carolyn saying that Shirin had it and Dan replying that Shirin was too stupid to have found it. 

Speaking of frogs, I did love that one shot where a frog jumped out of the water at night and then in the daylight it was a bird taking off out of the water. Neat camera work, that.

Some one on another forum mentioned that this scene predicts Carolyn's win, since people would like to see Mike return for S31. If you read closely into this, she did an excellent job hiding within a big alliance and now is coming out to play. Though this scene easily predicted the outcome of this episode. We will see...

[hyukx3]

Didnt Jeff states that everyone will like the winner? Nobody likes Carolyn.

[ozlsn]

Also, Dan and Will's intimate moment by the fire...maybe after 30 days they don't even smell each other, but all I could think was, BLECHHHHHHH.

 

It's always the first thought I have when they send the contestants into local communities - I really hope they are given the option of a shower or something, otherwise there are a huge number of people out there going "geez Americans reek..." ;-)

 

I've read Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.  Now I want to see Gone with the Wind and Zombies.

 

Gone with the Zombies.  Heh.

 

This. Times ten.  And I don't even always mind goats or the strategy of keeping them around for FTC, but this season's goats are such unpleasant people on every level.  The non-goats may not be the greatest group ever compiled, but it irks me to see Dan and Will cruising past them to the end by virtue of being awful people as well as awful players.  It's like they're being rewarded for being gross mistakes of casting.

 

This is the point where I really wish Mike had aligned with Joe and Jenn - I'd so much rather have people who are good competitors on some level (social, physical, both) than Dan and Will who seem to fail on all counts.

 

OMG cooksdelight you found it!   That's our new category of Will-like player:  a Walrus!

 

ETA: On second thought, maybe we should also consider the Manatee?

 

He is the Willrus. 

[LadyChatts]

Didnt Jeff states that everyone will like the winner? Nobody likes Carolyn.

 

Was this quote from before the season started?  Which, if that's the case, then maybe they didn't expect Carolyn to be disliked.  The only way I see her winning is if Mike either isn't in the final 3, or he flubs up really badly.  Maybe people hold the 'flippers never win' against him and give their vote to Carolyn out of spite.  Rodney might have a hard time casting his vote for Mike.  I can see how maybe she fits with being "iconic", since she was slated to be the first to go and so far has held her own very well and made it to the final 6.  In this group, it's pretty much an accomplishment to be disliked considering who you are surrounded with.  I went from liking to Carolyn, to finding her boring, and now I am rooting against her.  I'd rather see her win over Will and Dan, and am indifferent if I want her to beat out Rodney.  He at least is playing the game, even if he is a huge spoiled brat whose plans sometimes fail.  But she beats Sierra, who I find the 'who?' of the season.  Getting screen time in the past episode doesn't make up.

 

This is the point where I really wish Mike had aligned with Joe and Jenn - I'd so much rather have people who are good competitors on some level (social, physical, both) than Dan and Will who seem to fail on all counts.

 

 

I wish we could get a Survivor season where people aren't afraid to take the best of the best to the end, and not just someone who rode their coattails or an unlikable goat like Dan.  It just seems like it takes away from the spirit of the competition to go to the end with people knowing they are extremely disliked or did absolutely nothing to get there other than be a sheep.  But, for a million dollars, I can't blame people.  It's what I think Jeff was getting at this week, with his comment about dragging the weak to the end.  I know the whole Shirin vs everyone and the reveal of the S31 cast will be taking up a lot of time during the reunion, but I really would like Jeff to touch on this season and essentially whether people truly thought they were being carried to the end, knowing what they know now.

Edited May 8, 2015 by LadyChatts

[himela]

I think the strategy all 5 players (except Mike) have is Sandra's. If it ain't me, I don't care.

 

I'm wondering if they will put another HII in the game now that Mike played his. How great would it be if Mike found the HII again before the next tribal coucil and blindside Carolyn? Or Rodney? Or all of them combined to be honest?

 

[ProfCrash]

Dan is not in the bottom. Dan is going to the final three. Dan and Will are final three locks because they are not liked by the jury. No one in the final six was going to say that because it would mean telling the others that they were not in their final three and make them a target.

 

Tyler targeted Dan only because he thought that he would get Mike's vote and he thought he could use the twist against Dan. Tyler has said in his interviews that he was targeting Carolyn next because she made it clear that she was not going to use the idol on him.

 

Carolyn, Mike, and Rodney have cases they could make to win the game.

 

Carolyn won immunity, found and kept secret an idol and it seems like she has played a good strategic game. The Producers rarely show the strategic game because they think it is boring and that we don't want to see it.

 

Mike won immunities, found and kept secret an idol, managed to figure out how to shake up the game when he was ousted from his alliance, and can discuss how he was loyal to his original tribe and (so far) did not vote for any of them.

 

Rodney has the weakest case but he can argue that he brought in Will and helped get Carolyn and Tyler on board. Rodney also was responsible for the alliance that ousted Mike and took control of the end game. Obviously he knows that his out bursts are going to be held against him and the fact that he sucked at challenges. But for all of his comments about women that are more then questionable, Jenn, Hali, and Shirin have all had nice things to say about Rodney.

 

That leaves Dan, Sierra, and Will. Dan and Will are goats and everyone knows it but them. Sierra is an under the radar player who hasn't won immunity. I suspect that she is an easy vote out. I figure that the next bunch of weeks will be used to get rid of Carolyn, Rodney, and Mike (depending on who has immunity) and that Sierra will be gone at the final four. Knock out the challenge threats and then the drift wood.

[JudyObscure]

Rodney was made to win that rope hanging challenge, he has the big upper body, small lower body, of a gymnast, so he should have been the winner, food in his belly or not, but Rodney lacks the most important quality for any endurance challenge and that's the ability to withstand discomfort.  Washing dishes in the rain is almost beyond his pain threshold.  He probably needs a Valium drip to get his teeth cleaned.  Carolyn, on the other hand, has  grit,  If she can use her HII during the next, probably more random challenge, then she might be able to go on an immunity run.  Mike is good at all types of challenges but I doubt he will be there much longer. I really can't picture an all goat final because Dan and the Wilrus (love that ozlsn) can't win anything.

[Guest]

DAMN.  I really did not know that.  Where was I?

I think it's speculation.  Jeff loves a good outburst, and it's not in summaries of the rules I've seen. 

 

Why would Tyler assume Carolyn voted for him anyway?  It could've been any two of his own alliance.  

[ihartcoffee]

I thought she voted Tyler out because he know about her idol. That she chose to tell him about.

[dolphincorn]

 

Rodney was made to win that rope hanging challenge, he has the big upper body, small lower body, of a gymnast, so he should have been the winner...

 

That's absolutely not true. A higher center of mass makes that challenge innately more difficult for men. Rodney's gym body only accentuated his top-heaviness. Guys who work out that way typically do a lot of reps with heavy weights that take their muscles through a range of motion while never working on the muscle's ability to withstand force in a semi-contracted state. This was a challenge for someone with a proportionate, resilient musculature to win. Someone short with a background in yoga or pilates would naturally find a challenge like this to be easier than someone with a gym body (which, by the way, is quite a bit different than a gymnast's body).

[Calamity Jane]

Sierra's eyebrows did not disappoint.  Otherwise, a few lovely nature shots apart, meh. 

 

But I think we need to start a movement to make Willrus an official designation. 

[Lingo]

  I also wonder why no one is concerned about the WC idol, although maybe we will see that next week since Carolyn is the only WC left.  I was half hoping Tyler would blow her in to everyone.

 

Tyler has said somewhere (Ponderosa or ew.com) that he did a lot of covering for Carolyn out there, including reassuring the others that Carolyn did NOT have the idol.  (Considering that both Max and Joaquin were blindsided, he probably could easily make the argument that one of them had it.) On this show you should never assume that people aren't doing something -- the show is only 60 minutes long and they have to focus on activity that actually has an impact on the game.

 

 An all goat final is the ultimate devolution of the whole game.  Granted, it could be avoided by not casting so many damned goats and contemptibles, but this is a BM production. 

 

... Bowel Movement?

(I actually think you mean Bunim-Murray, and I'm pretty sure you're wrong about that.)

[Way Wes Jr]

I think this was a week too early for Carolyn to strike, but Tyler was enough of a challenge threat to make it to F3 otherwise that I can’t really fault her for moving.  Mike is a goner unless he wins three straight Immunity challenges, and then we’re left with the goatiest collection of goats ever.  (Unfair statement, Carolyn isn’t really a goat.  She needs to use her HII in a timely fashion, and win at least one more Immunity Challenge to make F3.)  I want to rank her number one, but at this point she’s the second target after Mike, so...

I’m going to list each player’s prefered F3 in order.

 

Merica (Purple)

 

1. Rodney (2)  Will, Dan, (then,) Sierra, Carolyn, Mike.    I missed seeing ‘befuddled Rodney face,’ at TC when his master plan to get Mike to not play his idol didn’t work.  I wouldn’t be thrilled with a Rodney win, but he has tried to create plans, and could argue that his creation of the Tyler/Carolyn/Will suballiance is why he deserves to win.

 

2. Carolyn (3) Will, Dan, Sierra, Rodney, Mike.    Carolyn has a really good chance to make F3, as she has a meat shield (Mike,) and a HII.  But, if Mike wins immunity *and* she has to use her HII at the same tribal, her advantages are wiped out.  If Rodney seems unable to let go of birthday-gate, he could move higher up - to minimize his jury-poisoning time.

 

3. Dan (6) Will, Sierra, Rodney, Carolyn, Mike.    Dan probably thinks he could out-perform Sierra at FTC.  I think Sierra would win in a walk, unless she personally insulted every member of the jury.  This would be a horrible F3, but would have schadenfreude value.

 

4. Will (4) Dan, Sierra, Rodney, Carolyn, Mike.    See above.

 

5. Sierra (5) Will, Dan, Rodney, Carolyn, Mike.     I think Sierra has had horrible luck in regards to being able to “make a move,” in regards to the numbers.  I (unfortunately) think that she would talk circles around Rodney and (Will/Dan) at FTC, and the jury would still vote for Rodney, because, penis.

 

6. Mike (7) Needs to win three straight immunities.  Not impossible, but unlikely.  Would win any combination at F3, but he’d love to be able to make a “blue collar loyalty” point at FTC, so I think his FTC order would be: Dan, Sierra, Rodney, Will, Carolyn.  Since the tribe switch he has voted for Joaquin, Jenn (x2,) Hali, Joe, and Tyler (x2).

 

OUT  Tyler (1) Carolyn made her move, one she had to do to avoid being with you at FTC.  And while the result wouldn’t have changed, you made a huge error.  If the plan was for Mike to get four votes, Dan to get two, and you to get one; you should have been one of the two “Dan” votes!

[fishcakes]

 An all goat final is the ultimate devolution of the whole game.  Granted, it could be avoided by not casting so many damned goats and contemptibles, but this is a BM production.

 

... Bowel Movement?

(I actually think you mean Bunim-Murray, and I'm pretty sure you're wrong about that.)

 

Ha. I read that as Bowel Movement too. In any case, we've already had an all-goat finale in South Pacific. Coach, Sophie, and Albert were less smelly than Dan, Will, and [anyone other than Mike], but they were all hated by the jury and against anyone other than each other, each would lose, Coach because he was a hypocrite, Albert because he was smarmy and ineffectual, and Sophie because she was unpleasant to everyone and a coattailer who thought she had game. If we have another all-goat F3, it will hurt the franchise, but I don't think it will kill it if Probst et al. will simply acknowledge that this season was crap. If they continue to insist that this was a great season and continue to cast for controversy, then eventually everyone will tune out. Not me, though. I'm in it to the bitter end.

Edited May 8, 2015 by fishcakes

[needschocolate]

Why did Tyler vote for Mike? Did he really think that Rodney's plan would work?  Did he think Carolyn would play the idol for him (then they would have a re-vote)? Did he ever try to convince Carolyn to vote for someone else, like Dan, so that it might end up with 2 for Dan, one for Tyler (Mike's vote) and the rest for Mike - then if mike plays the idol, Dan goes?  Why didn't Tyler vote for someone, like Dan, to force a tie if Mike is the only Tyler vote?  We know that Sierra also voted for Tyler, so it wouldn't have worked, but Tyler didn't know that was going to happen. Or did he?  Usually they show us the scrambling, so that we can see that there are other possibilities, but that seems to be lacking this season.  Maybe they aren't trying to come up with other plans - other than, "Hey, Carolyn, give me your idol."

 

I can understand that Carolyn wants Tyler gone - he and Mike seem to be the only ones with a shot of winning a challenge - but I think it was not a smart move of her to vote for Tyler.  She didn't need to, he would have been gone without her vote, and now she "stabbed him in the back" and probably won't get his vote if she makes it to the end.  Do the members of the jury get to see who voted them out?

 

Didnt Jeff states that everyone will like the winner? Nobody likes Carolyn.

 

Does that mean that the big twist is that they are binging back someone already voted out?

 

Or maybe someone from a previous season...

 

Personally, I like Mike (with all the other outbursts and ugly moments, I can't remember what he said that should be offensive - other than something about him complaining that others weren't helping at camp), but there seem to be a lot of people that don't like Mike and look at him merely a the lesser of evils.  I don't have any feeling for Carolyn either way, except that I am impressed by her challenge ability, but she certainly doesn't seem to fit the "everyone likes" category.  I don't understand the Carolyn hate - it seems like most of the Carolyn haters think she looks smug, but there doesn't seem to be many examples of her actually doing something hate-worthy.  I suppose Sierra could fall into the "everyone likes" category, but it is more the "everyone doesn't know her well" category.

[peachmangosteen]

I can understand that Carolyn wants Tyler gone - he and Mike seem to be the only ones with a shot of winning a challenge - but I think it was not a smart move of her to vote for Tyler.  She didn't need to, he would have been gone without her vote, and now she "stabbed him in the back" and probably won't get his vote if she makes it to the end.  Do the members of the jury get to see who voted them out?

 

The jury members don't officially find out how the votes went, but they usually figure everything out by the time voting for the winner comes around. I think Tyler would absolutely still vote for Carolyn. Tyler will vote based entirely on who he feels played the best game IMO. And besides, he doesn't really seem to have any personal problems with anyone left in the game.

[dbro]

I wish we could get a Survivor season where people aren't afraid to take the best of the best to the end, and not just someone who rode their coattails or an unlikable goat like Dan.  It just seems like it takes away from the spirit of the competition to go to the end with people knowing they are extremely disliked or did absolutely nothing to get there other than be a sheep. 

 

Yes, that would be awesome! The utopian final tribal! If there was just some meaningful way to earn game value by not being an ass or, conversely, lose game value or get penalized somehow for being an ass.

[Special K]

That's absolutely not true. A higher center of mass makes that challenge innately more difficult for men. Rodney's gym body only accentuated his top-heaviness. Guys who work out that way typically do a lot of reps with heavy weights that take their muscles through a range of motion while never working on the muscle's ability to withstand force in a semi-contracted state. This was a challenge for someone with a proportionate, resilient musculature to win. Someone short with a background in yoga or pilates would naturally find a challenge like this to be easier than someone with a gym body (which, by the way, is quite a bit different than a gymnast's body).

 

Yes.  A woman's lower center of gravity is definitely an advantage in this challenge, and Rodney accentuated his top-heavy disadvantage by pushing his center of gravity even higher than would be natural for his physique.  A strong, lighter weight woman (like Carolyn) is probably the best for this challenge. 

 

ETA:  A doctor friend once told me that, in his experience, middle-aged and older women seem to have the highest threshold for physical pain (b/c of chidbirth? Who knows), and that young men seem to have the lowest.  At least when it comes to needles and medical things.

Edited May 8, 2015 by Special K

[Guest]

I thought Sierra might be a good competitor on that challenge, too, because she seems to weigh nothing and barrel riding probably takes some hand strength?  

 

I've never seen anything (besides here) where Jeff said people will like this winner or that it's an iconic winner, not that that means it didn't happen.  His comments sound to me like he, as usual, didn't peek and is referring to the ending as a whole, whichever of the 3 at FTC wins.  

[blackwing]

I truly don't understand why Dan didn't use his advantage.  From all appearances, wouldn't it have seemed like he was vulnerable?  I don't get why so many of them voted for Mike knowing he had the idol.  Did they really think he was faking out again and not going to play it?  Was there some discussion that we didn't see regarding a splitting of the vote for Tyler so that Tyler would go home in case Mike played his idol?

 

How come Tyler voted for Mike?  Why wouldn't he have thrown his vote at anyone else, say Dan.  I do think in his closing comments that he said he tried to convince others to vote for someone else, but that he couldn't sway anyone.

 

The way Tyler asked Carolyn, "would you consider playing your idol for me" in a very "I'm trying to be cool, calm and collective about it" and making it very casual instead of just outright saying, "I know I'm in danger since Mike is using his idol, you and I are the closest alliance, I need the idol".  When she immediately said "we'll use it when the time is right".  He should have known right there that he was going home.

[onalark]

But this IC was a completely non-functional (in a real-world sense) physical challenge.  Strong upper-body strength (even "gym-strength") ought to help in this situation.  I suspect that Rodney's problem there was that he's probably felt the biggest drop in energy without the GNC store he probably carries around in a cooler every day in the real world, and he had more substantial weight to hold up than some of the others.

 

I don't think his losing this IC in particular was a reflection on his actual strength, although there is certainly an endurance component to the challenge that puts someone with predominantly fast-twitch muscle fibers at a dis-advantage.

 

fast twitch vs slow twitch:  Rodney is fast-twitch, Mike is slow-twitch

[needschocolate]

I wish we could get a Survivor season where people aren't afraid to take the best of the best to the end, and not just someone who rode their coattails or an unlikable goat like Dan.  It just seems like it takes away from the spirit of the competition to go to the end with people knowing they are extremely disliked or did absolutely nothing to get there other than be a sheep.  But, for a million dollars, I can't blame people.  It's what I think Jeff was getting at this week, with his comment about dragging the weak to the end.  I know the whole Shirin vs everyone and the reveal of the S31 cast will be taking up a lot of time during the reunion, but I really would like Jeff to touch on this season and essentially whether people truly thought they were being carried to the end, knowing what they know now.

 

If my memory is correct this happened in the seasons won by Tina and by Yul.  Tina won against Colby, a bit if a challenge monster and seemed to be a well-liked guy, so not a goat.  Yul won against Ozzie, a certified challenge monster, who also got some votes, and, therefore, was not a goat.  Their third was Becky, who some may consider a goat in her supposed lack of gameplay (though it turned out, according to Yul, that she was more involved that people realized).  But she made it to the end because they stuck to their alliance, not because of her goatness (Jonathan probably would have been a bigger goat, having turned on his alliance).  .

 

I truly don't understand why Dan didn't use his advantage.  From all appearances, wouldn't it have seemed like he was vulnerable?  I don't get why so many of them voted for Mike knowing he had the idol.  Did they really think he was faking out again and not going to play it?  Was there some discussion that we didn't see regarding a splitting of the vote for Tyler so that Tyler would go home in case Mike played his idol?

 

I think they voted for Mike because they didn't need to vote for anyone else.  Mike would vote for Tyler, Mike either plays his idol and Tyler goes home or he doesn't play it and Mike goes home.  They are safe, and can still sit at the finale saying they never went against their alliance. 

 

Dan should have been more concerned, since Tyler targeted him last time. He didn't need to use the advantage necessarily, but he should have voted for Tyler (he could have used the rationale that, since Tyler had voted for him, Tyler had already flipped, so, like Mike, Tyler was now okay to vote for)..  So, my theory for why Dan wasn't more concerned is because Dan is dumb. 

Edited May 8, 2015 by needschocolate

[ProfCrash]

They voted for Mike and made sure that Mike knew he was getting votes to make sure that Mike used his idol. They had to flush the idol. If it had gotten back to Mike that they were splitting the vote in some weird way he might not have played the idol.

 

Dan and Tyler were really dumb to agree to vote for Mike. They should have insisted that they were voting for the non-Mike person. They both trusted Carolyn and that burned Tyler. I don't think it burns Rodney all that badly. I think this group has been set up such that no one is going to be too pissed that someone flipped as long as they do not blindside you. Sierra and Dan are fine with Tyler going home because it is blue collar strong and Tyler was an immunity threat. I kind of wish Mike had tossed a vote to Dan just to see him get paranoid.

[laurakaye]

Didnt Jeff states that everyone will like the winner? Nobody likes Carolyn.

I guess it depends on what your definition of "like" is.  The "dislike" of most of the remaining survivors is so intense, I guess one could deduce that Carolyn is "liked." 

 

I need to know if the head of Survivor Casting has been fired yet, because this group is just ridiculous.

 

Does Probst & Company truly think that this is a compelling cast?  Have they been on the air so long that they think they can just coast now?  Because I for one want to see this show get better and better.  I understand the challenge here, in that most people who make it on the show have seen it and want to become memorable, but there has to be a better way than to throw this island of misfit toys together for our viewing pleasure.