S42.E11: Battle Royale

[violet and green]

I really like Mike, so I was sad when he hung his head in dismay over Drea announcing her Knowledge is Power advantage, and then hung it even lower! That was so nicely done.

Would not have been sad if Lindsay went out on that stupid pick a box number, but Drea going with 7,000 unused advantages left  (I jest) was pretty good - and I liked how much fun she and Mike had over her extra vote on him and the way she played around with the torch snuffer.

I am also hoping Omar keeps Mike's idol, triumphantly plays it, and learns it is inactive c/- Mike not adhering to the scripted rules...

[blackwing]

22 minutes ago, violet and green said:

I really like Mike, so I was sad when he hung his head in dismay over Drea announcing her Knowledge is Power advantage, and then hung it even lower! That was so nicely done.

Would not have been sad if Lindsay went out on that stupid pick a box number, but Drea going with 7,000 unused advantages left  (I jest) was pretty good - and I liked how much fun she and Mike had over her extra vote on him and the way she played around with the torch snuffer.

I am also hoping Omar keeps Mike's idol, triumphantly plays it, and learns it is inactive c/- Mike not adhering to the scripted rules...

See I don't think it was that good natured of Mike... he is Stupert-like when it comes to being offended that anyone dared vote for him.  He didn't ask her because he thought it was a good move, he asked her because he wanted to make sure nobody else betrayed him.  I'm assuming he assumes that clueless Romeo was one vote for him, one vote was from Drea, and he needed to account for the last vote to make sure nobody in his alliance was trying to go against King Mike.  He's super paranoid and I kind of wish she had said "no it wasn't me" to make his head explode.

[violet and green]

Just now, blackwing said:

See I don't think it was that good natured of Mike...

Your mileage clearly varies! I think Mike is the epitome of good-natured.

[Carey]

2 hours ago, JudyObscure said:

I don't see what was smart about it.  Nothing she said at that point would have kept her in the game. 

 

2 hours ago, JudyObscure said:

It's understood that a player can spill the beans about everything when they get to the jury, but for an evicted player to try to influence the players who are still in the game, seems unfair to me.  That's why the jury isn't allowed to speak.

Fair enough point re: Drea.  For me, it felt like Eliza spilling the beans on Ozzy back 14 years ago.  Their fate had been determined.  What's different is that Eliza's fate wasn't made official.  That's really it in terms of the difference.  Not to knock these people, but some past players would have or could have made a massive move against Omar and asked him. That or tell no one, as mentioned

I guess Omar wasn't a big threat to where he needed to depart.  While I agree about how it wasn't cool for Drea to wreck Omar's plans, I doubt it affects his fate.  There's enough within the jury to ruin Omar, and that's with Mike getting there.  It was a nice positive segment with great sportsmanship.  You don't really see that in "classic" Survivor.

BTW, there is no comparison between Plinko and winning survivor.  Other than both appear on CBS.  Survivor has been won 41 times in over 2 decades, and Plinko hasn't been won in nearly 4 decades.  There have been some nice outcomes in that pricing game, but one mistake and that would end one's victorious mark there (even no mistakes and you can falter).  In Survivor, you can make a mistake or 2, 3, 4 errors or a dozen and have a much better outcome on Survivor.  OTOH, you can have a more favorable Plinko outcome whereas on Survivor you can do well but end up voting for a winner instead.  I respect iMonrey's analogy, but I just couldn't disagree anymore.

As for Omar playing the idol, I don't know.  Unless Mike realizes the lack of effectiveness and goes for it, the fact that Drea did what she did might actually help Omar.  They might target one of Linds, Jon, or Romeo instead thinking that he'll play it and the end is close

Edited May 12, 2022 by Carey
Spelling error

[blackwing]

15 minutes ago, violet and green said:

Your mileage clearly varies! I think Mike is the epitome of good-natured.

I think he is petty and a bully.  He was trying to get Chanelle out because she voted for him, and he got so mad and repeatedly said in confessionals that Chanelle voted for him and it's personal so he is going to get her out.  This is a game which has been on the air since 2000, voting for each other is part of the game so I'm not sure why he was so offended and upset that someone voted for him.  I think he even said something like "you did this to yourself" when he voted for her... and it was clear that he was referring to the fact that she voted for him.  He was stubborn in his decree that Chanelle was going to go home that time (after the failed attempt  when Daniel went home instead).  

Hai was supposedly his #1 ally but he got all butthurt when Hai wanted Rocksroy to go home instead.  And then was still upset that he didn't get his way that he blindly listened to Omar's lie about Hai and didn't even talk to his supposed #1 ally and voted him out.

Mike plays too emotionally.  He's good natured as long as everything goes his way.  If anyone goes against him, then he is mad and vindictive.  He's just like Rupert, but without the stupid bellowing pirate roar.

Edited May 12, 2022 by blackwing

[violet and green]

Rightio, then.

[Steph Sometimes]

Poor Jonathan. He used up all his energy on monkey runs and now has barely any left to win immunity.

Glad Lindsay is still in it because I like her and that twist is stupid.

That was one of the happiest, giggliest tribal councils I can ever remember.

Edited May 12, 2022 by Steph Sometimes

[bunnyface]

12 hours ago, DEL901 said:

The problem they have now is filming seasons back to back so they can’t use audience feedback to tweak the show.  

But do they use viewer feedback to tweak the show?  I'm not asking in (just) a snarky manner.  Because I read over and over and over that people think there are too many advantages and idols, but every season we seem to get even more of the same.  The feedback I see, and goodness knows I don't see all of it, seems to be almost the parallel opposite of what they do.  Almost like "we know what the people want more than they do."  And maybe they do, because we keep watching.  

[Vikitty]

Drea's exit reminded me of Shan's, in that Shan called Deshawn a snake and told Ricard he had her vote. 

[bankerchick]

10 hours ago, blackwing said:

He doesn’t seem to think so.  He seems to think he is a master strategist and is running the whole game.

 

Didn't he say at one point he could play the game walking backwards or some such?

 

8 hours ago, LoveLeigh said:

I am all confused.... Drea threw Mike two what? I can't follow it sometimes, sorry for my stupidity. 

Drea threw two votes at Mike because she had an extra vote.  This also confirms for Mike that even though he got 3 votes, there is only one other person who voted for him (Romeo, who is clearly out of the loop.)

7 hours ago, rr2911 said:

I don't think Drea's exit was all that.  She looked like she didn't know how to act being eliminated after probably thinking she was going far in this game.  She called out Omar, which wasn't classy at all.  Omar telling Mike is all part of the game.

I would say that Drea dropping the dime on Omar is also part of the game.

[fishcakes]

Poor Romeo. The other players don't tell him shit and the editors also hate him.

Jonathan is a good example of not being able to hide your true self for 39 or even 26 days. He thinks he's being magnanimous by eating only the same amount as everyone else, as if everyone else is eating as much as they want and he's the only one making sacrifices. Then he complains about how they don't understand that he's doing as much as he can, as if they're not all doing that. Pity. He seemed like a good guy at the beginning.

Drea's exit was fun. I think I prefer it when people just get their torch and go, but her and Mike fake punching and tickling each other was hilarious. It was also nice to see the bubbly side of her personality; she's been shown as so reserved the whole season.

Edited May 12, 2022 by fishcakes

[seacliffsal]

I just don't understand why Jeff loves the Do or Die twist as in both seasons it was used it seems like his favorite strong players are the ones who feel they have to compete while the others sit out.  Way to reward not participating in challenges.  I actually like it when Jeff bribes people to not participate with food, but to be potentially punished by participating in the Do or Die just bothers me (and, I'm sure, those who may be punished by being first out...).  

Why didn't we see more of the fun Drea during the season?  I thought she seemed really fun on her way out-she probably would have been more of a favorite for me had I seen more of her personality during the season.  

I still like Jonathon and get why he is becoming grumpier and grumpier (I would probably be grumpy by the second day...).  However, he does seem to have a weaker social game but at least it's not as weak as Romeo's.  Yep, I think Romeo will get to the end due to having no game (no spoilers).

So glad that the KIP advantage fizzled out yet again.  Don't like it.  Even though I would hope that I would keep any/all advantages secret, I kind of love it when the players don't.  I can understand that they are all excited about all of their advantages (didn't Drea have like 1,000 of them at one point?) and I also understand why they want to share that news with others.  And then, I really like seeing the blindsides that are heading their way.  

Oh, and Jeff?  I really don't need you to giddily speak directly to me as a viewer about some obnoxious twist that is about to happen.  Believe it or not, I can actually figure some things out while watching it unfold before me...

I can hardly wait for next week as things will really start intensifying as we near the end of the game/social experiment/monster/challenge of a lifetime...(forgive me, but I do get confused by how we are supposed to view Survivor as Jeff seems to keep changing his mind about what it represents...).

[iMonrey]

Quote

Oh yeah, and Mike sucks at this game.

Why did Drea say if he makes it to the end he'll probably win? I don't think he's played a strong game at all, but maybe the jury doesn't see it that way. Or was Drea just being sarcastic or trying to get the others to vote him out next?

Quote

BTW, there is no comparison between Plinko and winning survivor.  Other than both appear on CBS.  Survivor has been won 41 times in over 2 decades, and Plinko hasn't been won in nearly 4 decades.

Allow me to clarify. Yes, ultimately someone must win Survivor because it's a last man standing situation. But actually playing Survivor now is about as strategic as playing Plinko. I suppose there is some strategy in where you drop your chip on the board, but that's about it. The chip is just going to go wherever it goes and it's completely out of your control. With all these twists, gimmicks and advantages, a Survivor player's strategy goes about as far as strategy playing Plinko.

Quote

But do they use viewer feedback to tweak the show?  I'm not asking in (just) a snarky manner.  Because I read over and over and over that people think there are too many advantages and idols, but every season we seem to get even more of the same.  The feedback I see, and goodness knows I don't see all of it, seems to be almost the parallel opposite of what they do.  Almost like "we know what the people want more than they do."  And maybe they do, because we keep watching. 

The problem with TV show runners is they tend to tune out the "haters" and only listen to the sycophants. Twitter followers have an oversized influence in particular, and there's a weird, symbiotic relationship between Twitter fans and show runners. The Twitter fans feed their egos to get replies from the TV people and the TV people feed off the Twitter praise. It makes the Twitter fans think they are friends with Jeff Probst, Mark Burnett et. al. so they continue to laud and defend their every move.

[susannot]

Romeo is the goatiest goat I've ever seen and I'm sure most of the other players realize it.

[Dena0033]

1 hour ago, fishcakes said:

Poor Romeo. The other players don't tell him shit and the editors also hate him.

Jonathan is a good example of not being able to hide your true self for 39 or even 26 days. He thinks he's being magnanimous by eating only the same amount as everyone else, as if everyone else is eating as much as they want and he's the only one making sacrifices. Then he complains about how they don't understand that he's doing as much as he can, as if they're not all doing that. Pity. He seemed like a good guy at the beginning.

Drea's exit was fun. I think I prefer it when people just get their torch and go, but her and Mike fake punching and tickling each other was hilarious. It was also nice to see the bubbly side of her personality; she's been shown as so reserved the whole season.

I have also been saying Drea seemed pretty humorless all season, so I felt like her personality came out of nowhere. Mary Anne also said "Everyone loves her" so that surprised me. She had sort of a dullard edit until last night.

[Chicago Redshirt]

1 hour ago, iMonrey said:

Why did Drea say if he makes it to the end he'll probably win? I don't think he's played a strong game at all, but maybe the jury doesn't see it that way. Or was Drea just being sarcastic or trying to get the others to vote him out next?

My guess is the latter. Of course, everything is very much in flux, but I'm finding it hard to think of whose votes Mike would have in his pocket, if anyone's. 

I think it most likely that she, Rockstroy, and Hai would probably be most likely on the "anybody but Mike" camp. About the only one I could see most likely voting for Mike is Jonathan if he's on the jury.

[HurricaneVal]

2 hours ago, bunnyface said:

But do they use viewer feedback to tweak the show?  I'm not asking in (just) a snarky manner.  Because I read over and over and over that people think there are too many advantages and idols, but every season we seem to get even more of the same.  The feedback I see, and goodness knows I don't see all of it, seems to be almost the parallel opposite of what they do.

 

1 hour ago, iMonrey said:

The problem with TV show runners is they tend to tune out the "haters" and only listen to the sycophants. Twitter followers have an oversized influence in particular, and there's a weird, symbiotic relationship between Twitter fans and show runners. The Twitter fans feed their egos to get replies from the TV people and the TV people feed off the Twitter praise. It makes the Twitter fans think they are friends with Jeff Probst, Mark Burnett et. al. so they continue to laud and defend their every move.

 

I think that the type of person that comes to a site like the Primetimer forums to talk about TV shows is a very different viewer than those who go on Twitter to talk about TV shows.  And the nature of that talk is very different, as iMonrey points out.   Obviously, we're far more discerning than the others....  😉 😆

 

 

Romeo, Romeo, Romeo....what's with all the rice eating?   You aren't even being surreptitious about it, you're taking rice right out of the pot in front of everyone.  Food stealing is usually the fastest route to getting voted out on Survivor.  And Jonathon will eat you.

[blackwing]

2 hours ago, fishcakes said:

Jonathan is a good example of not being able to hide your true self for 39 or even 26 days. He thinks he's being magnanimous by eating only the same amount as everyone else, as if everyone else is eating as much as they want and he's the only one making sacrifices. Then he complains about how they don't understand that he's doing as much as he can, as if they're not all doing that. Pity. He seemed like a good guy at the beginning.

Well, in this particular example, I don't blame him.  There was some kind of fishing net contraption and two of them were already working on untangling at it, and one of them said snottily said something like "you can help".  They already had two of them doing it, how many did they need?  Also, he says he has been the one catching all the food and making all the fires.  I think I would probably feel the same way.  If I expended a lot of energy catching fish, chopping bamboo, making fire... can't some of these other tasks be done by others?  Like Romeo.  What does he do all day besides sit by the pot and eat.  Untangling a net doesn't really require any muscle or special skill.  

[Lamb18]

I'm watching now--storm coverage took over for the last 15 minutes. Anyway, yay to Lindsay for getting the flame!

And rats, I was hoping to see Mike hand his idol over to Drea.

And Drea goes home with everything in her pockets! She sure was a good sport about it! Now I wonder if Mike will go on a rampage about who voted for him.

[Lamb18]

Sorry double post.

Edited May 12, 2022 by Lamb18

[Guest]

One thing I noticed as Drea was doing her farewell tour on her way out, was when they'd cut to the jury, specifically Tori and Chanelle in the front (I didn't notice what the fellas in the back were doing). Tori was grinning ear to ear at the cheery, feel-good nature of it all, but Chanelle was just sitting there stone-faced. I think they did get one closeup of Chanelle smiling, but otherwise it was 😐

Who knows when any of those shots were actually taken from, but it amused me because it was so on brand for Chanelle 😆

[HurricaneVal]

Yeah, that snotty bit about the net was a little uncalled for.  But maybe just prior to that comment, there might have been a tiff over who does what so maybe in context the snottiness makes sense. 

Jonathan has been very self-aware through all this, and he's modified his behavior and himself because of that, not to mention just walking away from situations because he knows how he'd come off just because of his size.  Having to change who you are in order to prolong your game has got to be wearing on a person.  Then add in the lack of food and I could see how Jonathon could get a little grumpy.  I think he's just getting tired and isn't keeping a tight leash on himself anymore and that's why his stellar reputation is getting a bit tarnished.

[blackwing]

I hope we never have to see the Do or Die twist again... but I have a lingering question.  I'm sure Jeffy knows exactly which box the flame is in before the contestant approaches.  After contestant picks a box, he then goes through this whole "let me open one of the other two boxes because I'm such a nice guy and I want you to win" show.  

There's absolutely no way that Jeffy is ever going to "randomly" choose to open one of the two remaining boxes and it will be the flame.  Because then he doesn't get his dog and pony show about how they can switch etc.  He is always going to choose to open a skull.

So going by the logic that the contestant's chosen box is a one in three chance of being right, and the unopened boxes represent a collective two in three chance of being right... Jeff is always going to open one and show a skull.  Meaning all of the two-thirds chance in being the flame now resides in the other unopened box.

If we ever see this "twist" again I do hope that somebody appreciates the logic and calls him out on not being as magnanimous or clever as he thinks he is.  What Jeffy really wants is he wants someone to switch boxes.  His feel-good "I'm so generous" moment would be if the switched box has the flame, but the Price is Right "wah wah" would be if someone switched, gave up the flame, and got the skull.  I don't think Jeff cares either way, he would rather see someone switch just for the sake of switching.

This "Twist" has played itself out.  In future seasons, unless they change it, whenever Jeff offers people the chance to step out otherwise they risk Do or Die, I think everyone will step out.  No one wants to work 20+ days in the game only to lose to a game of chance.

If this kind of twist sticks around and he wants to encourage people to play, then they should add a rule that if more than half of the people step out, then the tribe loses its rice and flint.  See who is selfish and who thinks about the tribe as a whole.

[Chicago Redshirt]

1 hour ago, Lamb18 said:

And Drea goes home with everything in her pockets! She sure was a good sport about it! Now I wonder if Mike will go on a rampage about who voted for him.

Drea actually had almost nothing in her pockets at the time of being booted.

She used the immunity idol she had two TCs ago.

She used the Knowledge Is Power advantage this episode.

She used the extra vote this episode.

The only advantage she still had in her possession as she was booted is the advantage necklace that would have required her to collaborate with Lindsay to use it to steal a vote. And of course, it's not like Lindsay would have agreed to collaborate on this even if Drea's boot didn't upgrade her necklace to a full-blown immunity idol for her.

Mike probably was able to do the math and figure out that Romeo is the only person who voted for him beyond the two Drea votes.

Edited May 12, 2022 by Chicago Redshirt

[Skyfall]

14 hours ago, Mediocre Gatsby said:

I was thinking the same thing as Hai -- there's a math-ish reason why Lindsey should have chosen the other box, but I never remember why it is. I was glad she stayed; I hate that twist. 

The Monty Hall Problem. First choice odds is 1/3 while removing an unchosen wrong option gives the remaining option the odds of 2/3 if you switch.

[fishcakes]

1 hour ago, blackwing said:

Well, in this particular example, I don't blame him.  There was some kind of fishing net contraption and two of them were already working on untangling at it, and one of them said snottily said something like "you can help".  They already had two of them doing it, how many did they need?  Also, he says he has been the one catching all the food and making all the fires.  I think I would probably feel the same way.  If I expended a lot of energy catching fish, chopping bamboo, making fire... can't some of these other tasks be done by others?  Like Romeo.  What does he do all day besides sit by the pot and eat.  Untangling a net doesn't really require any muscle or special skill.  

I was talking more generally about they whole martyr thing he has going on, but since you mentioned the net specifically, I'd say it was Jonathan who was being snotty. He told Drea and Lindsay he'd show them how to use it if they'd untangle it, then he told them they were untangling it wrong, but made no move to show them what he meant. That's when Drea said he could help, but his excuse was that they were already doing it. He tells them to do it, he says they're doing it wrong, but he won't do it because they're doing it. Incorrectly, according to him. But in a secret way that he won't share. Mileage varies and all that, but I don't see where he comes out as the justified party there.

Edited May 12, 2022 by fishcakes

[JudyObscure]

1 hour ago, blackwing said:

There was some kind of fishing net contraption and two of them were already working on untangling at it, and one of them said snottily said something like "you can help".  They already had two of them doing it, how many did they need?  Also, he says he has been the one catching all the food and making all the fires.  I think I would probably feel the same way. 

Yes, I would have been as annoyed as Jonathan was.  Drea was the one who sounded hangry. 

He also has a very good point with the food.  If you're a skinny older woman with a slow metabolism you may well only need about 1500 calories a day while a young man Jonathan's side would need more than twice that much, so say they're all eating 700 calories worth of rice everyday, he's losing weight faster and suffering the consequent hunger much worse than the others.

[GaT]

12 hours ago, rr2911 said:

.  Interesting.  Maryann voted for Drea.  Hmm!

Yeah, after the very special episode, it's surprising.

[DEL901]

51 minutes ago, HurricaneVal said:

Yeah, that snotty bit about the net was a little uncalled for.  But maybe just prior to that comment, there might have been a tiff over who does what so maybe in context the snottiness makes sense. 

Jonathan has been very self-aware through all this, and he's modified his behavior and himself because of that, not to mention just walking away from situations because he knows how he'd come off just because of his size.  Having to change who you are in order to prolong your game has got to be wearing on a person.  Then add in the lack of food and I could see how Jonathon could get a little grumpy.  I think he's just getting tired and isn't keeping a tight leash on himself anymore and that's why his stellar reputation is getting a bit tarnished.

In her exit interview, Drea said she wished the aftermath had been shown where Drea and Jonathan talked it out and it all ended very positively.  

4 minutes ago, GaT said:

Yeah, after the very special episode, it's surprising.

Not really.  She never said that no one should ever vote out a black person.  It was one specific circumstance. 

[ljenkins782]

15 hours ago, blackwing said:

Yep.  I think Omar and Mike are both done.  If Omar is in the finals, he won’t get votes.  He betrayed Drea tonight.  And he lied about Hai and Drea is going to tell Hai what Omar said to Mike.  There’s at least two votes he won’t get.  Wasn’t he the one that said last week “if you’re going to lie, make it a good lie”?   The Hai lie was not a good lie, it was easily verifiable. 

I don’t think Mike will get many votes if he makes it to the end either.  He is a bully.   He made the votes against some of them so personal (Chanelle, Hai) and he’s not very articulate. Hai will laugh if Mike says he was running the game.

I truly can’t stand Mike’s voice.  

Drea wasn't there when Omar lied to Mike and I don't think Mike necessarily shared what Omar specifically said to Mike. Mike was angry with Hai, but that didn't have to be specific to Omar's words, Hai was beginning to act like he was running the game and a lot of them saw that.

I think Omar has a decent case to make about Drea's parting words, he used that information to get her out to help the others. Drea was sitting on a pile of advantages and has allies sitting in the jury box, she was a threat to all of them. His move saved Mike's neck and activated Lindsay's amulet power, so he genuinely did help both of them even if he didn't actually do it for those reasons. He engineered the ouster of 2 fairly big threats in the past 2 weeks, I think he's playing well. And it's a compliment to his social game that Drea entrusted him and only him with that powerful piece of information (Lindsay also told him [and Mike] about the amulets, which none of them seemed to have shared with other people. 

Personally I was happy to see Drea go out of fear for another "all advantages" tribal where some unlucky bastard goes home by default, she had so many advantages that she could have shared with someone and still had some for herself. And the "I observe" speech was a little irritating, and frankly, ill-advised. It was the equivalent of sticking your head up above the parapet, just daring them to lop it off.

Does Romeo know what a goat he is? Honestly, he sometimes seems like he thinks he's actually playing, which baffles me. And I'm a little sick of seeing him crouching in the dirt just darting his eyes around like he's not sure where he is. That'll be a giant waste of a F3 spot, but I'm sure they're all eager to take him along as sacrificial lamb. But the panic in his eyes when he had to vote first was priceless, he didn't have a clue what the plan was.

I'm not sure how I feel about Mary Anne, outside of her idol finds, I don't think she's done a ton, game-wise. She was fortunate to be on a tribe that was close knit and won enough immunities to get her to the merge, but one more elimination pre-merge and she'd have been gone.

I think I'd be happiest to see Omar and Lindsay in the finals, I'm glad she didn't get screwed by that stupid do or die twist. I don't remember it being a choice to compete last season, was there an option to sit out? 

[Taeolas]

55 minutes ago, blackwing said:

I hope we never have to see the Do or Die twist again... but I have a lingering question.  I'm sure Jeffy knows exactly which box the flame is in before the contestant approaches.  After contestant picks a box, he then goes through this whole "let me open one of the other two boxes because I'm such a nice guy and I want you to win" show.  

There's absolutely no way that Jeffy is ever going to "randomly" choose to open one of the two remaining boxes and it will be the flame.  Because then he doesn't get his dog and pony show about how they can switch etc.  He is always going to choose to open a skull.

So going by the logic that the contestant's chosen box is a one in three chance of being right, and the unopened boxes represent a collective two in three chance of being right... Jeff is always going to open one and show a skull.  Meaning all of the two-thirds chance in being the flame now resides in the other unopened box.

If we ever see this "twist" again I do hope that somebody appreciates the logic and calls him out on not being as magnanimous or clever as he thinks he is.  What Jeffy really wants is he wants someone to switch boxes.  His feel-good "I'm so generous" moment would be if the switched box has the flame, but the Price is Right "wah wah" would be if someone switched, gave up the flame, and got the skull.  I don't think Jeff cares either way, he would rather see someone switch just for the sake of switching.

This "Twist" has played itself out.  In future seasons, unless they change it, whenever Jeff offers people the chance to step out otherwise they risk Do or Die, I think everyone will step out.  No one wants to work 20+ days in the game only to lose to a game of chance.

If this kind of twist sticks around and he wants to encourage people to play, then they should add a rule that if more than half of the people step out, then the tribe loses its rice and flint.  See who is selfish and who thinks about the tribe as a whole.

 

It's called the Monty Hall problem, and it works exactly as you say it does. In fact, last season when it came up, one of the Survivors outright called it that as well. 

If the game is true (in that the host knows the winning door but can't change the result), then switching should be what the player does for the reasons given; there's a better chance that the winning box is the remaining one. 

But we now have 2 cases where the Survivor did NOT switch and still won; and both cases they were obviously 'favoured' Survivors IIRC; which makes people (myself included) feel this game is as Straight as Ru Paul. 

It would be absolutely trivial to rig the boxes to show flame or skull depending on how they are opened or by some other mechanism, and Jeff and Production would decide if they want the survivor to stay or not; I'm almost positive if Romeo had been in Do or Die, he would have gotten skull even if he did switch. Probably all 3 boxes are skull by default, and Jeff can trigger the flame mode as needed. 

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, ljenkins782 said:

Does Romeo know what a goat he is? Honestly, he sometimes seems like he thinks he's actually playing, which baffles me. And I'm a little sick of seeing him crouching in the dirt just darting his eyes around like he's not sure where he is. That'll be a giant waste of a F3 spot, but I'm sure they're all eager to take him along as sacrificial lamb. But the panic in his eyes when he had to vote first was priceless, he didn't have a clue what the plan was.

Romeo's a hard one, because for the first part of the season, he really was playing, and seemed to be playing well. He just got cast aside by his main ally (Drea) at the merge and has never recovered. I feel bad for the guy because sometimes the tide turns against you before you know it and without you understanding why, and there's little that can be done.

25 minutes ago, ljenkins782 said:

I think I'd be happiest to see Omar and Lindsay in the finals, I'm glad she didn't get screwed by that stupid do or die twist. I don't remember it being a choice to compete last season, was there an option to sit out? 

According to Gordon Holmes' recap of last season, there was the option to sit out, but only two people took it (Heather and Liana). Everyone else competed.

4 minutes ago, Taeolas said:

But we now have 2 cases where the Survivor did NOT switch and still won; and both cases they were obviously 'favoured' Survivors IIRC; which makes people (myself included) feel this game is as Straight as Ru Paul. 

Is Lindsay really "obviously favoured"? I wouldn't say the show is trashing her or anything, but she was kind of buried in the edit until recently. I'd say Jonathan, Maryanne, Mike and Omar are all more favored than she is (by the show, that is).

Edited May 12, 2022 by tracyscott76

[DEL901]

43 minutes ago, Taeolas said:

 

It would be absolutely trivial to rig the boxes to show flame or skull depending on how they are opened or by some other mechanism, and Jeff and Production would decide if they want the survivor to stay or not; I'm almost positive if Romeo had been in Do or Die, he would have gotten skull even if he did switch. Probably all 3 boxes are skull by default, and Jeff can trigger the flame mode as needed. 

I agree.  He picked up her box and moved it for no apparent reason.  

[nlkm9]

17 hours ago, blackwing said:

 

Not “every” immunity challenge, just the “next” one after he found the advantage.  It read “at the next immunity challenge, you must recite” his magic phrase.  At the next challenge, he didn’t say it.

People’s interpretation of this vary.  Some say he didn’t say the phrase at the next challenge and therefore his idol isn’t valid because he didn’t follow the rule of the advantage.   Mike and Daniel’s interpretation was that if he wanted to activate his idol he had to say the phrase.   And that if he didn’t want to try, he didn’t need to say it.

I would say that he didn’t have to say it at every challenge but the writing seemed clear that he had no choice and had to say it at the “next” challenge. 

so lets say it "was" an invalid idol, since he did NOT follow the rules--would it be invalid for Omar then? that would be awesome.

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Drea actually had almost nothing in her pockets at the time of being booted.

She used the immunity idol she had two TCs ago.

She used the Knowledge Is Power advantage this episode.

She used the extra vote this episode.

The only advantage she still had in her possession as she was booted is the advantage necklace that would have required her to collaborate with Lindsay to use it to steal a vote. And of course, it's not like Lindsay would have agreed to collaborate on this even if Drea's boot didn't upgrade her necklace to a full-blown immunity idol for her.

Mike probably was able to do the math and figure out that Romeo is the only person who voted for him beyond the two Drea votes.

so does lindsay have an idol because of Drea leaving??

 

[Chicago Redshirt]

5 minutes ago, nlkm9 said:

so lets say it "was" an invalid idol, since he did NOT follow the rules--would it be invalid for Omar then? that would be awesome.

so does lindsay have an idol because of Drea leaving??

 

Lindsay's necklace has indeed evolved to a full-fledged immunity idol with both Hai and Drea gone.

As to Mike's idol, as much as I wish that it is invalid, I can't see them holding him to that, and by extension Omar. It would probably replace the Edgardo blindside as my favorite Survivor moment if it happened, though. 

[willco]

2 hours ago, HurricaneVal said:

Yeah, that snotty bit about the net was a little uncalled for.  But maybe just prior to that comment, there might have been a tiff over who does what so maybe in context the snottiness makes sense. 

Jonathan has been very self-aware through all this, and he's modified his behavior and himself because of that, not to mention just walking away from situations because he knows how he'd come off just because of his size.  Having to change who you are in order to prolong your game has got to be wearing on a person.  Then add in the lack of food and I could see how Jonathon could get a little grumpy.  I think he's just getting tired and isn't keeping a tight leash on himself anymore and that's why his stellar reputation is getting a bit tarnished.

The way you phrased this is about the best description I think I've seen. Obviously I don't know Jonathon personally, but just based on the first half of the season, he seems like a pretty cool guy. He does seem to have a bit of an ego, but I think you really have to in order to succeed in Survivor. I have to fast for a couple of days straight every year for a colonoscopy and going without food for that long is no fun-- I can't imagine doing it for 20 -40 days ( even though they do get a little bit now & then ). I just think the stress on his body is making him grouchy, simple as that.

[HurricaneVal]

1 hour ago, ljenkins782 said:

I'm not sure how I feel about Mary Anne, outside of her idol finds, I don't think she's done a ton, game-wise. She was fortunate to be on a tribe that was close knit and won enough immunities to get her to the merge, but one more elimination pre-merge and she'd have been gone.

I suspect Maryanne is playing a deeper game than we've been shown.  She talks a lot, yes, but it is mostly inane chatter.  She keeps the important stuff quiet.  She has tended to keep her gameplay talk solely for the talking head interviews.  I don't think she's going to show up at the Final Tribal Council and pull out some sort of proof that she's controlled or manipulated alliances and votes, but I think she might outline a deep game strategy that she'd been following all along that is counter to her flighty and giggly external self.  IF she gets to FTC, that is.

That said, the only reason she's still around to even possibly be playing a deep game as I surmise is because she had the luck of the draw to be on a team with both Jonathan and Lyndsey who are very strong physically and who were able to pull out a lot of pre-merge tribal immunities.  Because of that, their tribe went into the merge with a really solid tribal alliance since they had all been together for so long with no need to scheme against each other.  It is that internal scheming that causes schisms in a tribe that weakens them after the merge.  That lack of a tribal schism gave Mary Anne's tribe a post-merge dominating alliance.  If Mary Anne had been on Mike's or Rocksroy's tribes, I think she would have been an early boot.

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, DEL901 said:

I agree.  He picked up her box and moved it for no apparent reason.  

I actually saw that as a move of transparency. He moved it out in front of the others and sort of to the side, setting it apart so that it was clear which one she picked, and therefore clear that the one he was opening first was not the one she picked.

[bankerchick]

41 minutes ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

It would probably replace the Edgardo blindside as my favorite Survivor moment if it happened, though. 

I'm not sure anything could ever top that moment, honestly.

[Taeolas]

1 hour ago, tracyscott76 said:

Is Lindsay really "obviously favoured"? I wouldn't say the show is trashing her or anything, but she was kind of buried in the edit until recently. I'd say Jonathan, Maryanne, Mike and Omar are all more favored than she is (by the show, that is).

 

At that point in the filming, she's become a bit of an Challenge Monster, beating or coming in second to Jonathan , who similarly has a bit of a favoured status as is; so I doubt the producers would want either of them to be booted out by "random" chance since they make for good challenges. The idea with the Do or Die challenge is that the strong challenge winners WON"T normally be at risk; but the weaker challenge competitors would get blown out. Maybe not the worst but usually someone would think they would have a chance that they don't really have, so the strongest challenge fighters would be safe unless they really mess up. 

 

In this case, everyone looked at Jonathan and Lindsay and gave a strong "Hell no!" and stepped out, leaving this somewhat unprecedented situation. 

[Nashville]

7 hours ago, fishcakes said:

Jonathan is a good example of not being able to hide your true self for 39 or even 26 days. He thinks he's being magnanimous by eating only the same amount as everyone else, as if everyone else is eating as much as they want and he's the only one making sacrifices. Then he complains about how they don't understand that he's doing as much as he can, as if they're not all doing that. Pity. He seemed like a good guy at the beginning.

It’s a matter of biology, not bitchery:

• Higher muscle mass burns more calories; a given ration of rice from which most tribal members might derive 45-50% of their maintenance calorie level is going to provide Jonathan with something like 30% tops.  Jonathan isn’t bitching, just acknowledging reality in his THs.
• Multiple people have stated over multiple episodes that Jonathan has been the primary protein provider of whatever tribe he’s been in (both pre- and post-merge), which means both (a) he is burning more calories in these activities and (b) his tribemates benefit doubly from his efforts - getting the extra calories in return for no expenditure on their part.

So if I were in Jonathan’s shoes and somebody acted like I was being lazy for being tired and not immediately jumping up to go join them in standing around on the beach, or started getting snippy because I didn’t feel like holding their hand and walking them through something THEY started…?  
Yeah, I might be feeling a little out of sorts about it too.

 

7 hours ago, fishcakes said:

Drea's exit was fun. I think I prefer it when people just get their torch and go, but her and Mike fake punching and tickling each other was hilarious. It was also nice to see the bubbly side of her personality; she's been shown as so reserved the whole season.

 

7 hours ago, seacliffsal said:

Why didn't we see more of the fun Drea during the season?  I thought she seemed really fun on her way out-she probably would have been more of a favorite for me had I seen more of her personality during the season.  

I’m sure this season’s editing is as capricious as ever, but I also got the vibe Drea may have kept a significant part of her personality (including her sense of humor, maybe?) tightly in check - right up until it didn’t matter any more.  So it may not have been Production not showing it; it may have been Drea just not giving them much to work with.

 

2 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

The only advantage [Drea] still had in her possession as she was booted is the advantage necklace that would have required her to collaborate with Lindsay to use it to steal a vote. And of course, it's not like Lindsay would have agreed to collaborate on this even if Drea's boot didn't upgrade her necklace to a full-blown immunity idol for her.

I don’t think that’s the way the 3WI works.

With two of the three 3WIs remaining in the game, either Lindsay or Drea - or both, at the same TC - could’ve used them individually to steal a vote without having to coordinate with the other.  Both Drea and Lindsay were aware individually using their 3WI when the other didn’t would mean they were now idol-less, though, while the other’s now-sole-remaining 3WI graduated to a full-fledged Immunity Idol as a result - and they may have considered that power shift unacceptable.

IMHO kinda penny-wise and pound-foolish on Drea’s part, considering she evidently already considered her situation dire enough to attempt exercise of her KIP advantage - but WTF does my asymmetrical couch-sitting ass know about it?  😆

Edited May 12, 2022 by Nashville
Typos

[peachmangosteen]

7 hours ago, fishcakes said:

Jonathan is a good example of not being able to hide your true self for 39 or even 26 days. He thinks he's being magnanimous by eating only the same amount as everyone else, as if everyone else is eating as much as they want and he's the only one making sacrifices. Then he complains about how they don't understand that he's doing as much as he can, as if they're not all doing that. Pity. He seemed like a good guy at the beginning.

I love watching the real Jonathon show himself more. He's such a dick but in a comical way. 

4 hours ago, blackwing said:

Also, he says he has been the one catching all the food and making all the fires. 

Well, in this ep Maryanne and Drea were shown making a fire and I believe one or both were shown making a fire in an earlier ep as well, so that part at least is not true.

3 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

One thing I noticed as Drea was doing her farewell tour on her way out, was when they'd cut to the jury, specifically Tori and Chanelle in the front (I didn't notice what the fellas in the back were doing). Tori was grinning ear to ear at the cheery, feel-good nature of it all, but Chanelle was just sitting there stone-faced. I think they did get one closeup of Chanelle smiling, but otherwise it was 😐

Who knows when any of those shots were actually taken from, but it amused me because it was so on brand for Chanelle 😆

I loved Chanelle's face. She just seems over it. Relatable lol.

[Mediocre Gatsby]

2 hours ago, ljenkins782 said:

Does Romeo know what a goat he is? Honestly, he sometimes seems like he thinks he's actually playing, which baffles me. And I'm a little sick of seeing him crouching in the dirt just darting his eyes around like he's not sure where he is.

I was expecting him to stick those scrawny fingers into the bowl and come out with his Precious. 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, Taeolas said:

 

At that point in the filming, she's become a bit of an Challenge Monster, beating or coming in second to Jonathan , who similarly has a bit of a favoured status as is; so I doubt the producers would want either of them to be booted out by "random" chance since they make for good challenges. The idea with the Do or Die challenge is that the strong challenge winners WON"T normally be at risk; but the weaker challenge competitors would get blown out. Maybe not the worst but usually someone would think they would have a chance that they don't really have, so the strongest challenge fighters would be safe unless they really mess up. 

 

In this case, everyone looked at Jonathan and Lindsay and gave a strong "Hell no!" and stepped out, leaving this somewhat unprecedented situation. 

I don't necessarily disagree, but if the producers really didn't want their favored challenge monsters to be booted by random chance, they shouldn't have set up a challenge where all the weaker challenge competitors would say "hell no" and be allowed not to participate. The whole thing is really poorly thought out.

[lilysmom]

20 hours ago, Carey said:

 

Over the past 5-10 minutes, I had a good laugh and was sad about a missed opportunity tonight: I sorta wished there was a way that Drea could have asked Omar if he (and not Mike) had an idol.  That? Would have been a great move!

I thought about the same thing, only then I went on with the fallout. What if when Drea tried to use the idol she got from Mike/Omar to save herself and Jeff announced that the idol was invalid because Mike didn't follow the rules when he first found it.

[Chicago Redshirt]

54 minutes ago, Nashville said:

I don’t think that’s the way the 3WI works.

With two of the three 3WIs remaining in the game, either Lindsay or Drea - or both, at the same TC - could’ve used them individually to steal a vote without having to coordinate with the other.  Both Drea and Lindsay were aware individually using their 3WI when the other didn’t would mean they were now idol-less, though, while the other’s now-sole-remaining 3WI graduated to a full-fledged Immunity Idol as a result - and they may have considered that power shift unacceptable.

IMHO kinda penny-wise and pound-foolish on Drea’s part, considering she evidently already considered her situation dire enough to attempt exercise of her KIP advantage - but WTF does my asymmetrical couch-sitting ass know about it?  😆

No, the advantage amulet people would have to use them in conjunction with one another. 

So according to this, Lindsay MUST use the amulet advantage at next tribal council because it fizzles when there are fewer than six. 

It's interesting that she didn't take her Shot in the Dark. In an EW interview, she basically said she just didn't think of it.

Edited May 12, 2022 by Chicago Redshirt

[Chicago Redshirt]

58 minutes ago, bankerchick said:

I'm not sure anything could ever top that moment, honestly.

I literally go and play that clip whenever I need a cheap laugh or an easy pick-me-up. Seeing Alex flush an idol and seeing Edgardo's ass go from super-smug to the realization that he's on the chopping block is *chef's kiss*.

BUT...I suspect that Mike could outsmug Edgardo, and I would probably literally yell at the screen "SERVES YOU RIGHT! SERVES YOU RIGHT!" if Jeff ever said "You didn't say your phrase immediately when you were ordered to, and therefore your idol never activated."

[SVNBob]

On 5/11/2022 at 10:05 PM, Chicago Redshirt said:

Is five the last time all these idols can be played?

There's 4 advantages left in the game, and at least 3 expire at the F6.  So expect to see them get played in the next episode.

The only thing I'm not 100% sure on is Maryanne's normal HII.  That might still be good at F5.

[Taeolas]

Thinking more on the "Do or Die" challenge; part of me does still feel it is rigged; but looking at the bigger picture, if it was rigged, it would be REALLY dangerous for the show, since it means the producers would be directly affecting who stays or goes. If word of such manipulation leaked out from a legit source, it would probably kill the show.

Hiding advantages and HII's where preferred players are more likely to find them is one thing, since other players still have a chance to get them. The thumbs are on the scales but only slightly. 

But using the Do or Die boxes to directly chose who stays or goes, that is approaching Quiz Show levels of manipulation and would probably run them afoul of the FTC or FCC or whoever else monitors American game shows. (Even if technically Survivor is probably a Fijian production now). 

 

Since there are actual prizes involved in Survivor, it is expected to be a 'fair' game show no matter how much we viewers speculate about producer interference. And Jeff/Production choosing who stays/goes with Do or Die would break that fairness even more than it seems on the surface. 

 

(Contrast this to a show like Masked Singer, where it pretends to be a game show, but it is obviously scripted out the wazoo, and there are no 'real' prizes on the line; it's basically just a chance for fading celebrities to get some new spotlight time).

 

Frankly, with more thought on it, I'm surprised Survivor did a "Do or Die" challenge like they did, because it is so obvious that it COULD be manipulated. The boxes make it seem like it could be more in play than is obvious. They could have just done it as 3 cards on the table (Maybe stick them on fake coconuts or rocks to give them more weight), survivor picks one, Jeff flips one of the others, and asks if they want a switch, and the final chosen one is flipped. That method could theoretically still be manipulated (as any fan of Penn and Teller's Fool Us could tell you), but it is much more difficult, making the choice more real. 

By putting the choice in boxes, it makes the choice device more complicated and more suspicious and harder to prove that it is a fair choice.  

[Lantern7]

46 minutes ago, Taeolas said:

Thinking more on the "Do or Die" challenge; part of me does still feel it is rigged; but looking at the bigger picture, if it was rigged, it would be REALLY dangerous for the show, since it means the producers would be directly affecting who stays or goes. If word of such manipulation leaked out from a legit source, it would probably kill the show.

I’m thinking it might be rigged, but in a way where there’s no wrong choice. Probst could have spent a chunk of the hiatus learning how to make the skulls appear on the papers that are not chosen. Does that make sense? The person making the pick would be safe no matter what. Getting immunity makes it more shysty, though . . . and if the show were to get killed, would it really make that much of an impact?