S40.E13: The Penultimate Step of War

[vb68]

2 hours ago, GaT said:

Did they need padding to fill out the 2nd hour? 

Apparently, yes.

[mojoween]

Did Nick tell on himself at the end of Tribal about the advantage?  He said something about having an advantage “today” and he took it and it just seemed like that was hinting he is the one who disadvantaged Ben.

Didn’t matter since they were bouncing him anyways, but if he stayed I wonder if anyone would have picked up on that.

[Josh371982]

7 hours ago, Lantern7 said:

Well, at least the penultimate episode was entertaining. Also, Jeremy used the word "penultimate" correctly.

For all the hype that padded out the last ten minutes, I think we're going to get blueballed. Somebody who isn't that popular wins their way back into the game, that person won't make it to the end, an we'll get a winner that will induce eyerolls for many viewers. Also: because the last two seasons (EoE and IOTI) sucked copious amounts of ass, and the Reunion is going to be really different this season, AND this will probably be the last season until at least early 2021 . . . we'll probably look back an give W@W a pass on the harsher criticism.

I mean, if Tony wins, would that be the absolute worst thing? Like I've said, the guy can hustle. Sure, he's more of a cartoon (Probst's second fave category for males) than an alpha, but he's been working. Of course, given the last few years, either Tony or Ben wins. Or one of the EoE guys. The game just cares a lot more for guys.

Natalie should get back into the game. Given the number of tokens she wound up obtaining, she should have been able to buy her way back outright. The others can compete for another spot, but the hard work for her to make a comeback should stop now. I think she had sixteen tokens before she spent them on advantages and peanut butter. She actually got Nick to pay eight tokens to screw Ben's game. EIGHT! If fire tokens return, she would be the main reason why they'd come back.

As for helping Tyson . . . I think at this point, she'd rather the show burn to the ground if she doesn't get back. And what is even worse than Chris spending two-thirds of the game on EoE last year? Tyson getting voted off, winning his way back, getting voted off again . . . and winning in the end.

Hey, we didn't get whispering this week! It probably got cut out. Maybe the editors realize how tedious they've become.

Two more standard Challenges . . . and if Nick hadn't handicapped Ben, the big guy would have smoked everyone on the blockinoes.

From the Live Viewing thread:

I think it's pointing towards Ben. He's basically Colby + Rupert. Probst probably has a body pillow with Ben's picture on it.

No Jeff gets hard for Tony and Ben both. And its disgusting. Two of the biggest assbags left but that's Probst for ya. Gets a big hard on for the alpha male douches. 

[Josh371982]

6 hours ago, TAG42481 said:

Doesn't everybody realize Tony is running the game?  Doesn't everybody know that EVERYBODY ELSE KNOWS Tony is running the game?  So why does anyone want to take him to the end?  Unless it's a weird edit and they all plan on stabbing him in the back at some point.

Lol they should stabbed him already.  I do remember seeing last night some bullshit Sarah said about telling her son that she wants to go against the best cause she can beat them. Shes such a moron Tony's already screwed her over yet she still plays for him

[Josh371982]

4 hours ago, EllenB said:

I guess Michele is starting to hustle, but for me it's too little, too late.  She spent too many episodes on her Wendell drama, then she moped around doing nothing for too long.  I don't dislike her, but I can't respect her enough to want her to win - unless she's up against Ben.

I think Tony has earned the win, but if it's him vs. Natalie, I'd really be torn.  In theory, I hate the idea of someone coming back from EoE, but damn, she has really earned it physically and strategically.

Lol I cant stand both but no way in hell Natalie Deserves a Win it would be as bad as Chris 

[Haleth]

9 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

That was a nice and unexpected monologue from Amber about Edge of Extinction.

How can someone be out in the elements for weeks and look that radiant?  Amber is drop dead gorgeous.

What a boring 2 hours.  For a bunch of pros at this game they are all sure playing it safe.  And as much as I hate the idea of someone returning from EoE to be given the opportunity to win, I'd sure love to see someone with some spark (Tyson, Natalie) shake things up.  As it is they are marching to a Tony-Sarah-Ben final 3 with an expected landslide to a Tony win.  (At least it should be a landslide, neither of the others has done anything but ride coattails.  How can they not see that the jury perceives Tony as being in control?)  What a boring and pathetic way for the season to end.

3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

The thing is, Tony can argue he was loyal to his people, which were Sarah and Ben.  Everyone else has been a number for him, and he's admitted that.  He wanted the shields around to fend off the hyenas.  He can argue it's not his problem no one could figure out where they stood.  And, most of his blindsides were to keep his people in the game, get rid of threats, and keep himself safe.  I thought he took a risk voting off Sophie, but that doesn't seem to have backfired on him yet.

No one on the jury should be bitter.  As previous winners they all should know what it takes to win.  You have to double cross people and make choices that benefit yourself.  No winner is pristine.  The only person I can see voting for Sarah instead of Tony would be Sophie.

6 hours ago, GaT said:

Why did they spend so much time on that recap of the season? Did they need padding to fill out the 2nd hour? 

Even the editors were bored with the gameplay.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Haleth

[DEL901]

Not a Michelle fan, but she played her advantage correctly.  If she’d played it for Jeremy, she and Ben would have had two votes each and she would be in jeopardy.    Of course, he would have probably gone, but better not to be at risk.  
 

Jeremy’s wordless pleading was funny.  Dude, you had your chance.   

[SuburbanHangSuite]

6 hours ago, GaT said:

Like others here, I don't understand why people aren't voting out Tony, or at least look up in the trees before they have a conversation.

Or, oh I don't know, talk strategy literally ANY OTHER PLACE THAN THE WATER WELL?!   (Not unless  Sarah led them there knowing that Tony would be lurking in the Spy Nest.)  But you couldn't get me to say 2 words of strategy near the water well based on Tony's history.

[JudyObscure]

6 hours ago, Steph Sometimes said:

Am I the only one left who still really dislikes Michele?  This episode was very Michele-heavy.

I don't think I could ever like her. The tone of her voice always sounds like a high-pitched whine to me and most of the time she actually is whining; first part of the season she was whining, to anyone who would reassure her, about her reputation as an unworthy winner, middle part of the season she was whining  about Wendell, and this last part she's been whining to everyone, including Jeff, about being on the bottom.  Add on little things like her cutesy victory dances when she wins  and I find her just unbearable and way too old to be such a permanent school girl.

I thought the talk about how long it takes all of them to trust people after they go home was interesting and revealing.  Ben said he didn't even trust his wife for the first few months.  I think that's why he turned against Jeremy so hard, he felt like Jeremy was his closest friend out there and that then he had betrayed him. That silent treatment stuff is not what I would call childish (as Jeremy said) but a level of long term grudge bearing that is really a nasty trait.

I was rooting for Nick after I heard Ciera and all social media was against him.  Now I'm hoping for a Natalie win. 

[nutty1]

6 hours ago, EllenB said:

I guess Michele is starting to hustle, but for me it's too little, too late.  She spent too many episodes on her Wendell drama, then she moped around doing nothing for too long.  I don't dislike her, but I can't respect her enough to want her to win - unless she's up against Ben.

I think Tony has earned the win, but if it's him vs. Natalie, I'd really be torn.  In theory, I hate the idea of someone coming back from EoE, but damn, she has really earned it physically and strategically.

Natalie is a beast, without a doubt. However, she did not have to fight every single day to stay in the game. That’s what bugs me with someone from EoE winning. 

[skybolt]

A couple of thoughts on the episode:

I can't understand Jeremy's reasoning of not wanting his game to come down to a 50-50 advantage. It was like it was beneath him. I guarantee that if it is was Tony, he would've gladly played it, even with his other immunity idol in his pocket. If you've been targeted 3 straight times, take whatever advantage you can get.

I think Denise is playing the goat card so Tony, Sarah or Ben take her to the end. She even made that clear to the jury to reinforce her argument. As others have stated, she likely believes the Sandra move is the greatest in the history of reality TV. All she has to do is mention it and the jury will bow down to her whims. She will also bring up the fact that she could've easily voted out Tony instead of Sandra if she wanted to.

Unlike most of the posters here I actually like Tony and Sarah. With that being said, do cops have an unfair advantage in this game, where being able to read people is key? For instance, in my everyday work life people are telling me the truth 99% of the time. However, cops have to rely on being fed misinformation all the time. For someone like Tony who has 10 conversations with each player on a day to day basis, he has likely gotten really good at figuring out what's going on. Perhaps with the Sophie move he decided to wait until the end so that Sarah couldn't get suspicious with how people were acting. I think certain players like Sandra are hard to read, since they are so good at not being transparent. Kass was also likely tough for Sarah to read with the same grin on her face. 

I'd pick anyone else to come back from edge over Tyson since he already had his shot. For me it's like someone getting to level 36 playing a video game for 10 straight hours without losing a life, and then losing to someone who died in Level 10, was reinserted into the game during Level 20 (after skipping 11-19), losing again in Level 26 and then being reinserted again in Level 36. I can't believe any real Survivor fan would want that, especially after the Chris debacle.

[violet and green]

7 hours ago, Steph Sometimes said:

Am I the only one left who still really dislikes Michele?  This episode was very Michele-heavy.

Not alone! Couldn't stand her in her season, couldn't stand her this season, and that long episode was far too laden with Michelle, again. The mid-season was borderline unbearable with great lengthy swathes of her moanin' and agroanin' and whining on about and at mopey Wendell.

Look, she's a very pretty girl and she tans up well (will look like ancient leather by midlife, god bless) and the camera loves her, but enough already.

4 minutes ago, JudyObscure said:

I don't think I could ever like her. The tone of her voice always sounds like a high-pitched whine to me and most of the time she actually is whining; first part of the season she was whining, to anyone who would reassure her, about her reputation as an unworthy winner, middle part of the season she was whining  about Wendell, and this last part she's been whining to everyone, including Jeff, about being on the bottom.  Add on little things like her cutesy victory dances when she wins  and I find her just unbearable and way too old to be such a permanent school girl.

I thought she was a Valley Girl until this episode.

And then couldn't catch a ball, boohoohooo, and suddenly everyone's all: Rise, you glorious phoenix! Michelle is my winner! So brave, so true! Go, Michelle!

Barf.

I am rooting madly for Tony. So funny, I was putting on my black veil pre-watch in preparation for this being inevitably the time Tony doesn't win the Immunity necklace and gets voted out, as any sane contender would make sure he is. Barely raised a mention. Bizarre. Two opportunities to get the biggest threat to win out missed, and seemingly barely considered. I really hope he can take the whole thing out, and that the other half of Cops R Us gets second place prize money, also.

 

[skybolt]

21 minutes ago, JudyObscure said:

I thought the talk about how long it takes all of them to trust people after they go home was interesting and revealing.  Ben said he didn't even trust his wife for the first few months.  I think that's why he turned against Jeremy so hard, he felt like Jeremy was his closest friend out there and that then he had betrayed him. That silent treatment stuff is not what I would call childish (as Jeremy said) but a level of long term grudge bearing that is really a nasty trait.

 

I liked this part as well. Survivor can really play with your mind in many different ways. You really have to treat it like a game, but I totally get how these 39 days can become your real world long after you've left the island. Heck, I used to binge watch "Lost" and after 8 straight episodes I'd contemplate digging a hole in my garden to see if I can find an underground chamber.

[skybolt]

16 minutes ago, nutty1 said:

Natalie is a beast, without a doubt. However, she did not have to fight every single day to stay in the game. That’s what bugs me with someone from EoE winning. 

That in a nutshell. Please give her $250K for being the EoE queen, At this point I would take Ben over her even though Natalie is in my Top 5% players of all time while Ben is somewhere near the bottom. I don't know why, but my gut tells me that Wendell will win the return challenge. That 25 minutes we wasted on the Michelle / Wendell drama was probably for something. 

As far as the remaining players are concerned I can't see anyone wanting to work with Tony. He knows that and will gun for them right away (same with them). Ben maybe has Sophie. I can see Yul and Sophie wanting to work with Sarah. 90% of the returnees would want to work with Michelle. I think 50% of the returnees would also target Denise as an ally, but unless it's Kim, I doubt she'd be interested.

 

[violet and green]

Just now, skybolt said:

That 25 minutes we wasted on the Michelle / Wendell drama was probably for something. 

Soooooo much longer than 25 minutes. Ha.

I think Michelle has been very forward in the edit, in her own right, and Wendell has no chance of getting back in. She's whined and pouted about her win, and not being seen as deserving, and now we're getting the underdog rising.

Whoever comes back will want to use her as a number, and knowing she's got little chance of winning may well drag her along to the end with them. Worst case scenario. I wouldn't put it past her to go boohoohoo and win again, though.

[DEL901]

Maybe I missed the discussion earlier in this thread, but loved how Sarah convinced Ben it was his idea to get rid of Nick, to the point that he went to Tony with the proposal.    It was ultimately rendered moot when Nick won immunity, but to was a great piece of gamesmanship and even carried over to the next vote out where a Ben still wanted Nick gone....never seemed to occur to him to try to get Tony out.  

[AntFTW]

7 hours ago, EllenB said:

I guess Michele is starting to hustle, but for me it's too little, too late.  She spent too many episodes on her Wendell drama, then she moped around doing nothing for too long.  I don't dislike her, but I can't respect her enough to want her to win - unless she's up against Ben.

It’s late but Michele really had nowhere to go. She lost most of her alliance once Kim and Denise jumped ship without her. She’s been left out of every vote, even when she’s willing to be a number for the majority. No one but Jeremy was willing to actually play the game with her.

[ByaNose]

31 minutes ago, violet and green said:

Not alone! Couldn't stand her in her season, couldn't stand her this season, and that long episode was far too laden with Michelle, again. The mid-season was borderline unbearable with great lengthy swathes of her moanin' and agroanin' and whining on about and at mopey Wendell.

Look, she's a very pretty girl and she tans up well (will look like ancient leather by midlife, god bless) and the camera loves her, but enough already.

I thought she was a Valley Girl until this episode.

And then couldn't catch a ball, boohoohooo, and suddenly everyone's all: Rise, you glorious phoenix! Michelle is my winner! So brave, so true! Go, Michelle!

Barf.

I am rooting madly for Tony. So funny, I was putting on my black veil pre-watch in preparation for this being inevitably the time Tony doesn't win the Immunity necklace and gets voted out, as any sane contender would make sure he is. Barely raised a mention. Bizarre. Two opportunities to get the biggest threat to win out missed, and seemingly barely considered. I really hope he can take the whole thing out, and that the other half of Cops R Us gets second place prize money, also.

 

For some reason, I've always been shocked that Michelle isn't a bad ass in challenges. I know she won the next one but I picture her always being a comp beast but she really isn't. Other people lose too but I just imagine that she would win more I guess. If that makes sense.

[blackwing]

18 minutes ago, skybolt said:

I think Denise is playing the goat card so Tony, Sarah or Ben take her to the end. She even made that clear to the jury to reinforce her argument. As others have stated, she likely believes the Sandra move is the greatest in the history of reality TV. All she has to do is mention it and the jury will bow down to her whims. She will also bring up the fact that she could've easily voted out Tony instead of Sandra if she wanted to.

Unlike most of the posters here I actually like Tony and Sarah. With that being said, do cops have an unfair advantage in this game, where being able to read people is key? For instance, in my everyday work life people are telling me the truth 99% of the time. However, cops have to rely on being fed misinformation all the time. For someone like Tony who has 10 conversations with each player on a day to day basis, he has likely gotten really good at figuring out what's going on. Perhaps with the Sophie move he decided to wait until the end so that Sarah couldn't get suspicious with how people were acting. I think certain players like Sandra are hard to read, since they are so good at not being transparent. Kass was also likely tough for Sarah to read with the same grin on her face. 

I'd pick anyone else to come back from edge over Tyson since he already had his shot. For me it's like someone getting to level 36 playing a video game for 10 straight hours without losing a life, and then losing to someone who died in Level 10, was reinserted into the game during Level 20 (after skipping 11-19), losing again in Level 26 and then being reinserted again in Level 36. I can't believe any real Survivor fan would want that, especially after the Chris debacle.

I think Denise's strategy must be just that... get taken to the end and hope she wins because people think she is nicer than that other finalists.  Her whole martyr act of "I'm getting voted out, but I want to go out with rice in my belly" was puzzling.  I thought it was a play to the jury.  "I'm so noble and self-sacrificing, but I survived and here I am at the end."  I thought when she said that, she was already the #4 joined with the Triumvirate of Evil.

I don't necessarily think cops have an advantage, because the chief example is Sarah's complete befuddlement at the thought that nobody can beat Tony.  And her apparent disillusion that she stands a chance against him.

I think there are plenty of "real" Survivor fans on this board and I for one would welcome a Natalie win.  In fact, I would welcome a win by anyone from the Edge except for Wendell, Adam, Tyson or Jeremy.  That's how much I dislike the Triumvirate of Evil.  Unlike with the original Edge season, where Chris and the others truly did next to nothing, I think these WoW Edgers have had a much harder time and have been much more involved in gameplay and strategizing to some extent.  Natalie changed the game by getting the advantage to Nick.  Without Natalie giving Nick the advantage, Michelle would have been sent home.  And in return, Natalie got enough fire tokens to buy every advantage she could to get back in the game.

Natalie said she had 14 tokens.  8 were from Nick/Michelle.  Can anyone tell if this means she split the previous 6 Tony disadvantage tokens with Parv, or did she keep them all?

16 minutes ago, violet and green said:

And then couldn't catch a ball, boohoohooo, and suddenly everyone's all: Rise, you glorious phoenix! Michelle is my winner! So brave, so true! Go, Michelle!

 

I'm not the biggest fan of Michelle but the reason why I suddenly wouldn't mind if she won is simply indicative of how much I despise the Triumvirate of Evil.  I'd say of all the people on this season, the ones I despised the most are Ben, Sarah, Adam and Tyson.  Tony wasn't far behind.  So for those three to end up in the top 5 (6 including the Edge returnee).... aargh.

[Maggie Mae]

Nick had a chance to sink either Tony's or Sarah's game as his torch got snuffed.  He could have told Ben that one of those two gave him the disadvantage.  He would then be gone to Edge so Ben would be left to stew. Just saying this would have been hysterical watching Tony or Sarah scramble.  I do like T and S but I also like chaos LOL 

My ranking for the player I'd like to win:

Natalie, Michele, Sarah, Tony.

[skybolt]

I love Tony, but disagree with everyone who thinks he's an automatic lock to win if he makes final jury. Having watched Survivor since Season 1, jurors typically don't like voting for a puppet master playing from a power position, unless they're going up against massive goats. Having your name thrown out at tribal and being vulnerable at times is not a bad thing in the eyes of the jury. Their true Survivor is someone like Denise in her winning season or even Yul, where they had to overcome the numbers to get into a power position at the end, Heck, even Richard Hatch almost lost the final vote to Kelly because she made a run at the end while not being in the main alliance. I think Rob votes for him, but there's no way Parvati will (I think she wants a woman to win. Same with Kim and likely Sophie). Don't get me wrong, I want Tony to win because I love puppet masters, but my gut tells me that Sarah or Michelle beat him in the end.

[Lamima]

7 hours ago, ByaNose said:

I still don’t think anyone from Edge will win if they should make the Final 3. I think they know they would get shit upon from the outside world for voting for someone who was voted and sent to EoE. IMO!!! That said, I’m thinking either Natalie or Tyson come back. After that, it’s all too murky. I’m guessing Tony and Sarah make it and the third spot could be filled by anyone and probably not get any votes. Unless Tony & Sarah cancel each other out and the jury votes for Finalist #3. As you can tell I’m all over the map. I have no idea but it’s got to be either Tony or Sarah for the win, right? 

Tony unanimously unless an EoE member is in F3, like Rob or Parv or Jeremy or Natalie, then the EoE person might get some votes and/or win. But Sarah gets ZERO against Tony. As does Ben and Denise and Michelle. Someone like Adam, Wendell or Nick coming back from EoE would also get ZERO against Tony.

 

Here is a thought...maybe they were waiting for the EoE to be done to vote out Tony so he can't get back in. Risky but a possibility. I do think maybe we'll see him be the target next week.

And I still don't like Michelle. But like Jeremy so I was rooting for those 2 last night. Michele just doesn't really do much. She may have kicked it into gear to win immunity when she needed it. But she's been pretty dull up to then. And as mentioned above, she didn't work hard enough to get Ben or Tony or even Sarah voted out. 

Watch F3 be Ben, Michelle and Sarah. Ugghhh...least deserving 3 left in the back half of the game. Maybe the whole game. I loved Sarah on her past seasons, especially the one she won where she was so cut throat. But she really hasn't played this time around. I would guess Michelle would win if this is the F3 as she'd have Wendell, Jeremy, Nick, Parv and who all else's votes.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Lamima

[ByaNose]

If it's between Tony & Sarah I would say the jury would vote Sarah. I think she made more personal connections with the other people and in the game is more fun like. We saw a little more this time than her last game. Tony might have done more work and running around but Sarah made more personal connections with people like Kim and Sophie.

[skybolt]

1 minute ago, ByaNose said:

If it's between Tony & Sarah I would say the jury would vote Sarah. I think she made more personal connections with the other people and in the game is more fun like. We saw a little more this time than her last game. Tony might have done more work and running around but Sarah made more personal connections with people like Kim and Sophie.

I agree with this. I think most if not all the women jurors would vote Sarah over Tony. 

[Lamima]

2 minutes ago, ByaNose said:

If it's between Tony & Sarah I would say the jury would vote Sarah. I think she made more personal connections with the other people and in the game is more fun like. We saw a little more this time than her last game. Tony might have done more work and running around but Sarah made more personal connections with people like Kim and Sophie.

Nah, these guys are voting for a gamer not a nice fun person.

[skybolt]

13 minutes ago, blackwing said:

 

 

Natalie said she had 14 tokens.  8 were from Nick/Michelle.  Can anyone tell if this means she split the previous 6 Tony disadvantage tokens with Parv, or did she keep them all?

 

She definitely kept them all. I'm assuming the idol costs more tokens now than it did before. 

[violet and green]

It was just so strange that Tony didn't even have a moment of pondering in the edit over whether or not he ought to crack out his Idol, those last two Tribals.

[laurakaye]

10 hours ago, Alice Mudgarden said:

A big part of me wants Michele to win just because I called it when the cast was announced and I want the bragging rights.

 

9 hours ago, blackwing said:

Agree with everything here.  I wasn't a fan of Michelle's, I still think she ranks up there as one of Survivor's least deserving winners.  But these two hours, she really made a case for herself.  She played her advantage and then she won immunity when she needed it the most.  She also showed that she is actually doing strategizing and working the game.

Michele was my winner pick before the season as well, so I love seeing so many posters rooting for her now, whether she's being rooted for in terms of gameplay or rooted for in terms of being the least objectionable.  I don't care - #teamMichele.

With regards to her gameplay - I think she's playing a very similar game to Kaoh Rong in that, like this season, she's stepping back and allowing the big personalities to run the show (Scot, Kyle/Jason, Aubrey in KR - Tony, Sarah, Jeremy in WOW).  If you can't compete with the biggest and loudest, it serves her well to pretend to be led along until she's ready to step forward and make some moves.  In a season full of huge personalities, I think it's a great strategy.  Could it win her the game?  If she gets to the end and concentrates on the moves she made and avoids her story of feeling less-than-deserving (which the entire jury is already familiar with), I think she could. 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by laurakaye

[skybolt]

5 minutes ago, violet and green said:

It was just so strange that Tony didn't even have a moment of pondering in the edit over whether or not he ought to crack out his Idol, those last two Tribals.

I think he knew Sarah and Ben were solid and that Jeremy would not flip after he saved him twice. As I mentioned above, Tony tries to have a million conversations with each person so he can spot any blindsides against him.

[violet and green]

3 minutes ago, laurakaye said:

If you can't compete with the biggest and loudest, it serves her well to pretend to be led along until she's ready to step forward and make some moves.

Oh, I don't know. She's been on the wrong side of the vote a spectacular number of times this season.

[JudyObscure]

58 minutes ago, blackwing said:

I think Denise's strategy must be just that... get taken to the end and hope she wins because people think she is nicer than that other finalists.  Her whole martyr act of "I'm getting voted out, but I want to go out with rice in my belly" was puzzling.  I thought it was a play to the jury.  "I'm so noble and self-sacrificing, but I survived and here I am at the end."  

I agree. I always want to cheer for the older women (being one myself) but when I see that it always puts me off them.  Someone posted that old clip of Johnny Fairplay and his Grandma lie and there was Lillian again with the fakest fake crying I've ever seen in my life, reminding me of all the "too sweet to believe" older women (there was one who balled over a dead bat.) They were followed by  a long line of the noble and strong women like Denise and the lifeguard from last season.  The thing is, I think they actually are very admirable women but when they start giving indications that they feel entitled to win because of their own awesomeness they lose me.

[Fallacy]

If Tony makes it to the end, he should win. 

Also, Nick is an absolute moron voting out Jeremy instead of Ben. As Michelle so accurately noted, he had no path to the final 3 after that vote.

It’s likely that the player who gets back in will have an immunity idol because Natalie, Tyson, and Rob all have one. So my guess is Michelle will be the next to go home, assuming she doesn’t win the final 6 immunity challenge. At final 5, Denise or the player from the Edge goes home. Same at final 4. That leaves Ben, Tony, and Sarah in the final 3. And Tony will win.  

The only way that path changes is if the person from edge wins every immunity challenge to get to the final 3. So it would be Tony, Sarah, plus the edge player. I still think Tony wins in that situation too. If the person who returns manages to get Tony out, then that player might actually win. Otherwise, I still say it’s Tony’s game to lose. 

I just don’t see the jury voting for anyone but Tony if he manages to get to the end. These are winners. They’re not going to vote for the player who has won the most challenges. They’re going to vote for the player who played the best game. 

This is all speculation though, and I’m still enjoying this season overall, so I’m excited to find out how it all ends. 

[skybolt]

6 minutes ago, Fallacy said:

If Tony makes it to the end, he should win. 

Also, Nick is an absolute moron voting out Jeremy instead of Ben. As Michelle so accurately noted, he had no path to the final 3 after that vote.

It’s likely that the player who gets back in will have an immunity idol because Natalie, Tyson, and Rob all have one. So my guess is Michelle will be the next to go home, assuming she doesn’t win the final 6 immunity challenge. At final 5, Denise or the player from the Edge goes home. Same at final 4. That leaves Ben, Tony, and Sarah in the final 3. And Tony will win.  

The only way that path changes is if the person from edge wins every immunity challenge to get to the final 3. So it would be Tony, Sarah, plus the edge player. I still think Tony wins in that situation too. If the person who returns manages to get Tony out, then that player might actually win. Otherwise, I still say it’s Tony’s game to lose. 

I just don’t see the jury voting for anyone but Tony if he manages to get to the end. These are winners. They’re not going to vote for the player who has won the most challenges. They’re going to vote for the player who played the best game. 

This is all speculation though, and I’m still enjoying this season overall, so I’m excited to find out how it all ends. 

Great post. I will say that none of the players voted out have given their tokens to Tony, which could be a bad sign for him (same as Ben). In contrast, Sarah, Michelle and Denise have gotten tokens from at least 3 people each. You also had Parvati and Natalie sending the extortion disadvantage to Tony, and specifically talking about who's game they can blow up. I think Tony wins easily over Ben and probably Denise. However, Michelle may get votes from Jeremy, Wendell, Nick, Parvati and perhaps Ethan. Sarah may get votes from Kim, Sophie, Tyson (they had a good bond), Yul and probably other women on the jury like Amber and Danni . I think Adam, Rob and maybe Natalie vote for Tony.

[peachmangosteen]

 

12 hours ago, Alice Mudgarden said:

A big part of me wants Michele to win just because I called it when the cast was announced and I want the bragging rights.

Right! My pre-show pick to win was Michele. She's just the type of player that often wins in All Star type seasons. I think this ep really put her up there as the second most likely to win after Tony, but maybe that's just wishful thinking.

11 hours ago, AntFTW said:

It was pretty one-sided when it started. Ben hated Jeremy and Jeremy tried to talk to Ben and see if Ben would work with him... and Ben wasn't havin' it.

I feel like I'm losing my mind because people seem to be thinking Ben started hating Jeremy first but in the ep before Ben wouldn't talk to Jeremy, Jeremy had confessionals talking about how he hates Ben (and I'm pretty sure he used the word hate) and that everything Ben does annoys him, so I think it seems like Jeremy hated Ben first. Or, at the very least, they both hated each other for some reasons we aren't privy to or just because sometimes you hate somebody for no logical reason lol.

10 hours ago, Growsonwalls said:

Sarah is playing the kind of depressing game we've seen so often from females who get to the end. They get into a majority alliance, become afraid of making moves, afraid of pissing off jury members, so they sort of become "just a number." 

See, I don't see this in Sarah at all. IMO Sarah is way overconfident in her game. She thinks she has the win in the bag against anyone. She's an idiot lol.

Mostly a waste of 2 hours, but I did enjoy Michele becoming an underdog worth rooting for. 

I was very wtf over Natalie giving Tyson an idol. Like where did that relationship come from lol? It's annoying that we miss so much, especially when it ends up being kinda relevant. Also, I can't see how Natalie doesn't get back in. She has 3 advantages! The challenge will be that one that's kind of a crapshoot though so the advantages may end up being moot. It would actually be funny if Natalie lost though with 3 advantages. How embarrassing lol.

[Gummo]

If this is the best gameplay ever by the best players ever, it's time to put this game to sleep.

A bunch of mewling newbies could give a better show of themselves than Nick and Denise and Sarah.

And Ben is just obnoxious all the way thru.

I gave the whole tokens idea a chance but all they've done is clutter up an already cluttered game.

I'm just dreaming of Natalie getting back in and smoking her way thru comps all the way to the end. No way the jury doesn't hand the crown to the Queen of Extinction.

I guess if Tony wins, he deserves it, but only because he's dragged along a bunch of useless lamprey eels sucking at his heels. 

If I sound a bit bitter, it's because I am. This season had so much promise. 

[skybolt]

3 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I was very wtf over Natalie giving Tyson an idol. Like where did that relationship come from lol? It's annoying that we miss so much, especially when it ends up being kinda relevant. Also, I can't see how Natalie doesn't ghet back in. She has 3 advantages! The challenge will be that one that's kinda a crapshoot though so the advantages may end up being moot. It would actually be funny if Natalie lost though with 3 advantages. How embarrassing lol.

I can understand giving him an idol to perhaps get his jury vote if he makes it back, but why give him peanut butter again after he didn't share last time and won the challenge? Also, based on the last EoE challenge, the second and third advantages are fairly minor. Please note that another 5 players have 2 advantages each for the challenge. I bet the extra one will only save her a couple of seconds. I wonder if they'll get a massive puzzle at the end to help even things out. 

[peachmangosteen]

3 minutes ago, skybolt said:

I can understand giving him an idol to perhaps get his jury vote if he makes it back, but why give him peanut butter again after he didn't share last time and won the challenge?

But if Tyson gets back in then Natalie won't need his jury vote because she won't be there lol. 

Quote

I wonder if they'll get a massive puzzle at the end to help even things out. 

The final EoE challenge will likely be the exact same one they used in the first EoE season because the first challenge this season was the same as the first challenge in the first EoE season. It's just a 'get through these ropes and then try to get this ball down this puzzle' challenge. Basically a crapshoot.

[Virulent]

Tony's the best player of all-time it looks like. He ran an absolute clinic. Joe Reid hates him but you can't deny that this guy is a genius. 

[skybolt]

28 minutes ago, Gummo said:

I gave the whole tokens idea a chance but all they've done is clutter up an already cluttered game.

 

The token thing makes no sense to me, as well as half the players. Sandra gets a full blown idol for 1 token and then Nick has to spend 8 to purchase a disadvantage for one player at an immunity challenge. I assume Sarah is keeping her 4 tokens as a souvenir. Same with Ben with his 2 tokens. Why not just spend it on a tarp or more food if they're useless now? At least Tony was using his to bribe people. At the very minimum they should've at east shown the new menu at EoE. I spent 3 weeks trying to figure out how a jar of peanut butter quadrupled in cost.

[skybolt]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

But if Tyson gets back in then Natalie won't need his jury vote because she won't be there lol. 

The final EoE challenge will likely be the exact same one they used in the first EoE season because the first challenge this season was the same as the first challenge in the first EoE season. It's just a 'get through these ropes and then try to get this ball down this puzzle' challenge. Basically a crapshoot.

Sorry, I confused myself there. I meant if he didn't win the challenge. 🙂

I'll go back and Youtube the previous challenge from Season 38.

[fishcakes]

That was a boring episode. They should have spent the entire two hours at EoE instead. That one mouthful of rice for everyone was painful to see. No wonder Yul, Danni, and Tyson are so bone-thin right now. They didn't come in with any reserves.

I can't figure out Michele's game; she has a really good handle on what's going on, and yet she's almost always on the wrong side of the vote. I want to root for her, but then she did the dorkiest end zone celebration dance ever and now I'm conflicted.

How many times are we going to hear that Denise slayed the queen? Does anyone think Sandra had any chance of getting to the end? Someone was going to take her out at some point; it just happened to be Denise. If Denise gets to FTC and claims that as an accomplishment, I think the jury will issue a collective yawn.

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

I feel like I'm losing my mind because people seem to be thinking Ben started hating Jeremy first but in the ep before Ben wouldn't talk to Jeremy, Jeremy had confessionals talking about how he hates Ben (and I'm pretty sure he used the word hate) and that everything Ben does annoys him, so I think it seems like Jeremy hated Ben first.

I don't remember Jeremy saying he hated Ben but he did say that he was annoyed by everything he did. He said it in confessional, though, and to Ben's face he was still pleasant and working with him. After that, Tony flipped on the Threat Plus Ben alliance to target Jeremy, then flipped back to save Jeremy, which exposed Ben's vote against Jeremy. And Ben's reaction was to get mad at Jeremy instead of Tony, which made no sense, but also the intensity of his anger made no sense. Ben wouldn't speak to Jeremy at all, and he'd barely look at him. Just super petulant and childish.

[jdunlop]

10 hours ago, Primetimer said:

 

Primetimer's Joe Reid wondered the same thing, so he wrote an article about the weird pacing of tonight's episode and this season's many missed opportunities:
https://www.primetimer.com/features/survivor-winners-at-war-somehow-failed-to-fill-their-two-hour-episode

It makes sense if they don’t repeat the summary next week.  They have to add a player from EoE, to get to six, three immunity challenges, two three tribal councils to get rid of people (including the fire challenge at four) and a final tribal council.  It depends how they go into hour three next week, but they had more available time this week in the two hours, it seems.

[Nashville]

9 hours ago, OutOfTheQuestion said:

About Denise's move of spending her remaining fire tokens on the rice, why weren't they all pooling their money for a bunch of food if tokens are no longer valid?  That also would have been a way for Ben to figure out who used the disadvantage on him, if they're pooling their tokens and Nick is mysteriously broke.

Why the hell would anybody with Fire Tokens go out of their way to nourish their competition?  Get your own jar(s) of peanut butter, go hide in the woods, and stuff your face.

 

3 hours ago, blackwing said:

I think Denise's strategy must be just that... get taken to the end and hope she wins because people think she is nicer than that other finalists.  Her whole martyr act of "I'm getting voted out, but I want to go out with rice in my belly" was puzzling.  I thought it was a play to the jury.  "I'm so noble and self-sacrificing, but I survived and here I am at the end."  

Denise’s “Dinner is on me, guys” ploy was 0% altruistic and 100% strategic, and she said so; the entire “Oh woe is me, I’ll go, but let me go with a full belly” spiel was purely misdirection to keep Nick from getting paranoid about a blindside.  Personally I thought Denise overacted the hell out of it - from what the edit showed us, anyway - but waddaya know, it worked.  
 

Not overly fond of Nick’s play at the previous TC or the position it left him in at the TC, but I don’t think it rises to the level of “idiotic” - because let’s face it: Nick’s options were limited, and whatever move he made was going to be lauded by half the audience and trashed by the other half.

Final note: The title to this episode should’ve been “Brought A Butter Knife To A Gunfight”, and on this point I stand as firm and unyielding as the Rock of Gibraltar.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Nashville
“Woe”, not “EoE”. Damn autocorrect.

[jdunlop]

The editors keep showing Denise mentioning that she got out the Queen.  I think this matters, because I think Denise is trying to get to the final four, not three.  She may be the only one that realizes that might be more critical than saying final three.  Since at four it’s a fire challenge, getting to there means there’s a chance to get to the final tribal council, and she can plead her case there, which is a pretty good one.  she’s worked herself into the dominant group of Tony, Sarah and Ben.

She’s more likeable (social game) than Tony, and has done more than Ben or Sarah (out-play).   So sitting at four, and either winning immunity, getting picked to go to final, or winning the fire challenge gives her a good chance to win overall.

(I’m assuming the next target is Michele, with the EoE returnee going at five since there’s good chance they’ll bring an idol with them.)

 

[HurricaneVal]

Nobody likes Ben.  That is obvious.  He is a huge threat at challenges as well.  Why is he still in the game?  I have no idea.  If the strategy is to keep him as a goat at the end, so his unlikeability gives the other player an advantage, that is a very dangerous game to play because Ben is a dangerous goat.  He can point out his challenge performances to the jury, and how even though he was unpopular he stuck it to the end.  Sometimes bitter juries go for crap like that.

Vote.  Out.  Ben.  Is it that hard? 

That was some unbelievably bad rice they were chowing down on at EoE.  Poor JeremyI   I think that maybe the players still in the game think that EoE is luxurious compared to their experience, but Jeremy learned the hard way it is not.  That rice was burned and skimpy.  One spoonful each?  At least they saved a nice portion for Jeremy, and not a mouthful that was totally burned. 

This whole fire coin thing has been poorly explained and handled by the show.  I had no idea that they were supplementing their food supply by using their fire coins to buy rice for the tribe.  No wonder we hardly ever saw anyone out in the bay spearfishing or foraging, or scraping and toasting coconut at camp.  They just go to the Survivor bodega down the beach and pick up supplies.  Not until last night when Denise explicitly talked about cooking up a big portion of rice, then using her fire token to buy another bag for the rest of the tribe did I realize that's what they were doing.  It does put an interesting dynamic into the game, who hoards their tokens for personal use, who spends their tokens for the good of the tribe...  Interesting only if they actually show it, that is.  Yeah, they show us when people needed extra tokens to buy this or that advantage dangling in front of them, but that isn't as interesting as the deeper token game being played.

What this season is teaching me is that New School Survivor is really kind of boring.  It is all about idols and advantages and swing voting to play around the advantages potentially being played.  BO-ring.

Nice that Michele finally got to play.  Sometimes a late season push wins the day, because your competitors got complacent and a late surge can impress the jury.

Vote.  Out.  Ben.

[AntFTW]

2 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I feel like I'm losing my mind because people seem to be thinking Ben started hating Jeremy first but in the ep before Ben wouldn't talk to Jeremy, Jeremy had confessionals talking about how he hates Ben (and I'm pretty sure he used the word hate) and that everything Ben does annoys him, so I think it seems like Jeremy hated Ben first. Or, at the very least, they both hated each other for some reasons we aren't privy to or just because sometimes you hate somebody for no logical reason lol.

I don't recall. I'd have to back and rewatch. As far as I remember, Ben ignored and brushed off Jeremy because they showed Ben saying he thought Jeremy was going to win so Jeremy was Ben's sole target. Ben was making it blatantly clear to everyone, including the target that is Jeremy, that he wanted Jeremy out. Aftering ignoring Jeremy and not wanting to work with him, Jeremy went on to say that Ben was a child and was annoying. I could be misremembering.

Edited May 7, 2020 by AntFTW

[RedbirdNelly]

I was shocked when they said "stay tuned for scenes from next week's Survivor." I told my husband "isn't that what we just watched for 10 minutes?"

[iMonrey]

Quote

I don't think I could ever like her. The tone of her voice always sounds like a high-pitched whine to me and most of the time she actually is whining; first part of the season she was whining, to anyone who would reassure her, about her reputation as an unworthy winner, middle part of the season she was whining  about Wendell, and this last part she's been whining to everyone, including Jeff, about being on the bottom.  Add on little things like her cutesy victory dances when she wins  and I find her just unbearable and way too old to be such a permanent school girl.

Thank you. I just can't stand Michelle's little-girl voice. If I only heard her without seeing her, I would assume she's about 12 years old. It's not that she's unintelligent, it's just that the sound of her voice (which, admittedly, she cannot help) and the way she talks (which she can) make her sound like an immature young girl. Her conversation with Sarah was painful to listen to. Even though what she was saying was true, she sounded like a little kid arguing with her mommy why she shouldn't have to go to bed yet. Just - the choice of words, the inflection, the cadence. Ugh. It's unbearable.  

As for why everyone seems to be handing the money right over to Tony, I suspect a lot of what the other players think pads their resume doesn't make it onto the show. We see Tony making all these moves and, seemingly, orchestrating every blindside. But others like Sarah or even Ben might be making similar decisions, and the editing pares it down to make it look like it's all Tony.

It's the only explanation why any of them think they can possibly win against Tony. Either that or they're just unbelievably stupid. (Another possibility, sure, but we're all wise to the way this show tends to be edited.)

Edited May 7, 2020 by iMonrey

[SweetSable]

Have they stopped doing reward challenges or are they just not being shown?

 

[Kenzie]

So disappointed Ben and his raspy, asphalt-paving voice weren't voted off last night.

I've developed a fingertip callus from hitting the mute every time his hairy mug pops up on screen.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Kenzie