S32.E12: Now's The Time To Start Scheming

[ghoulina]

1 hour ago, wings707 said:

 

It was smart to boot Jason.  He is an II threat and if in F3 he has a compelling story of getting there against all odds; he had no allies.

 

Plus, he might very well have pulled out the "my daughter's medical bills" card. It's really about being able to read your jury. They're all different. Some are bitter. Some want to reward a clean game. Some love blood on the hands. Some can be swayed by a personal sob story. Some want to see big moves. Some appreciate an underdog. I always feel for the players in these final weeks, because I'm sure it's very hard to try and figure out how all those people are going to be voting. 

[Dobian]

Here's my list of who has the best odds of winning if they make the final three:

1. Aubry

2. Tai

3. Michelle

4. Cydney

5. Joe

Tai gets points for winning challenges and breaking up the bad tat alliance.  Aubry also get points though for orchestrating that break-up.  Aubry also gets the bad tat votes because of their bitterness toward Tai, plus she has Debbie's vote, so she has the edge if the two of them are in the final three.  Michelle gets votes for likeability and positioning herself well.  She wins, for example, if she gets into a final three with Cydney and Joe, and could even upset Tai in a vote with Tai and Joe or Tai and Cydney, though outside of the bitter bad tats the other jurors would likely vote for Tai being the more active and strategic player.  I don't see Cydney winning in any scenario.  No one really likes her or thinks she's all that great, she's just been useful for alliances.  And if Joe makes the final three (and he will) he really should just sit down and let it be the final two.

Edited May 5, 2016 by Dobian

[Boilergal]

I think Cydney is just at her limit of strangers being in her constant daily life/space making demands - and she's letting it show more.

admitting projecting here.

To Joe's request

Day 1 - Cool, Awesome I'll go collect firewood I'm a team player!!

Day 32 - Pretty much the only thing on the calendar for today is to collect firewood - do we have a fire? do we have wood right now?  I'll get to it - quit nagging.

[azshadowwalker]

1 hour ago, meep.meep said:

 And you don't say "It has to be Michelle,"  you say "Who do you think it should be; I was thinking Michelle because the jury likes her."

I'm just glad that they actually got rid of Jason and that Tai burned at least one of his specialty items.

You especially don't do it that way when just a couple votes back, you got bent out of shape when Scot was trying to dictate the vote for Aubry and flipped alliances supposedly because you weren't being listened to. For all the "they don't respect me" whining at the time, Tai didn’t learn anything. He also didn't speak up to Scot and Kyle at the time, from what was shown. He just whined about it in confessional. Cydney likewise didn't tell Tai, but she did tell Aubry and Michele. That tells us where her loyalties lie, and what she thinks is best for her. Following Tai obviously isn’t that thing, since he's dumb enough to let everyone know that he, Aubry and Joe are the "real" alliance.  Why should Cydney go along with being the person they aim to cut at final four? There's not much time left; do what you must for yourself. 

Cydney's game was dictated by Scot and Kyle early on, after they got rid of Darnell and she had no choice but to go along.  There's no reason that she should now be dictated to by Tai, especially if she's an actual player and not a follower. Like Julia, I would rather see Cydney take the bull by the horns, even if she ends up losing.  There's no reason these women need to be ordered around at camp by someone like Joe, either. Lots of dudes out there thinking the women should do their bidding.

[blackwing]

12 minutes ago, Dobian said:

Here's my list of who has the best odds of winning if they make the final three:

1. Aubry

2. Tai

3. Michelle

4. Cydney

5. Joe

Tai gets points for winning challenges and breaking up the bad tat alliance.  Aubry also get points though for orchestrating that break-up.  Aubry also gets the bad tat votes because of their bitterness toward Tai, plus she has Debbie's vote, so she has the edge if the two of them are in the final three.  Michelle gets votes for likeability and positioning herself well.  She wins, for example, if she gets into a final three with Cydney and Joe, and could even upset Tai in a vote with Tai and Joe or Tai and Cydney, though outside of the bitter bad tats the other jurors would likely vote for Tai being the more active and strategic player.  I don't see Cydney winning in any scenario.  No one really likes her or thinks she's all that great, she's just been useful for alliances.  And if Joe makes the final three (and he will) he really should just sit down and let it be the final two.

I agree Joe has zero chance.  He has done absolutely nothing in the game and the lapdogs never get rewarded.  But I see both Tai and Cydney as having very little chance.  Tai betrayed the bro alliance of Scott and Kyle (and Nick), and there's absolutely no way that they would vote for him.  That's three votes right there.  Cydney also betrayed the brawn alliance, even though it was always very clear she was on the bottom, they won't forgive her.  She comes across as very harsh and mean and rough edged, and I don't think the women on the jury will vote for her.

If Aubrey or Michelle are both in the finals, it would be interesting to see who wins.  I think the guys respect Aubrey a lot more and recognise that she is smart and has made a lot of subtle moves.  Michelle's game has been less overt but I think she has managed to survive and has made it look effortless.  She seems well liked.  I think they are both strong candidates for the win.

[Cynna]

28 minutes ago, Dobian said:

Aubry...has Debbie's vote, so she has the edge

I'm not sure how Debbie's going to go on that one. She seemed pretty pissed to be voted out and blamed Aubrey who was her alliance. I'm trying to figure out who Debbie is smiling at all the time at TC.

[Haleth]

2 hours ago, wings707 said:

I love that Mark comes when she is called and sleeps in the shelter with them.  She just hangs out waiting for her family to return from challenges, in the hammock, no less!   Precious.  I would love to see her at the reunion.  That cannot happen but a fun thought.  Maybe they can do a follow up as to where she went after they wrapped.  It is likely that she was eaten shortly after but you never know. 

Nooooo!  Not listening!  Lalalala!

It will remain my belief that she was given to a nice petting zoo where she will be loved and cared for.  And no one better tell me anything different. ;)

Edited May 5, 2016 by Haleth

[LanceM]

RobC has been joking on RHAP that Mark survived this season only to meet his demise on one of the tribes on Second Chances.

[How Bout That]

Quote

Aubrey has the strongest FTC argument against Tai.  Tai made the big move to oust Scot, but Aubrey was the one who really got that done.  She can argue that Tai wouldn't have made that move without her prompting, and thus diffuse the value that Tai's big move would give him.

Sure she could make that argument...and be lying. What in the world did she have to do with that ouster? She didn't know that the plan was for Tai to give the II to Scot and make a super idol. After the votes were read, Tai just sat there and did nothing, there was no prompting by Aubrey.

Aubrey has a very weak FTC case, especially against Tai. Aubrey has won zero Individual challenges and Tai has won multiple. Tai has made multiple large game changing moves, Aubrey has not. Tai has found an HII and scored  some extra votes, Aubrey has won diddly-squat. Aubrey has come up with a couple of decent ideas but she fails to make them come to fruition.

There is an interview on CBS where Probst says that Michelle reminds him of Parvati. Michelle is nothing like Parvati, I can only imagine he might think something like that because he knows Michelle made FTC.

[LanceM]

4 minutes ago, How Bout That said:

Sure she could make that argument...and be lying. What in the world did she have to do with that ouster? She didn't know that the plan was for Tai to give the II to Scot and make a super idol. After the votes were read, Tai just sat there and did nothing, there was no prompting by Aubrey.

Aubrey has a very weak FTC case, especially against Tai. Aubrey has won zero Individual challenges and Tai has won multiple. Tai has made multiple large game changing moves, Aubrey has not. Tai has found an HII and scored  some extra votes, Aubrey has won diddly-squat. Aubrey has come up with a couple of decent ideas but she fails to make them come to fruition.

There is an interview on CBS where Probst says that Michelle reminds him of Parvati. Michelle is nothing like Parvati, I can only imagine he might think something like that because he knows Michelle made FTC.

Tai has only won one immunity challenge. Nobody has won more than one yet.

[Cynna]

7 minutes ago, How Bout That said:

Sure she could make that argument...and be lying. What in the world did she have to do with that ouster?

She spent a lot of time talking with Tai, more than one occasion, telling him they were evil, etc, and that he had the power to change his destiny, should make a big move, etc. She was manipulating him to do what she wanted, and achieved that by telling him how he would benefit. I'm 100% sure he would not have held the idol if Aubrey hadn't coached him first.

Tai also did no more than shake his head and say 'no' - he was imo terrified. But, he knew Aubrey and the others had his back. Without Aubrey, he would have shared that idol for sure.

[kakiphony]

While Aubry may not have won an immunity (yet) she has had some serious staying power in more than a few, and has been instrumental in several team challenges. In fact, of the women, I'd say she's one of the strongest challenge competitors. She turned out to be pretty great at water challenges, and almost beat Bounty in the last endurance challenge.

And while she may not have known the whole Super Idol plan, she was certainly instrumental in getting Tai to switch his allegiance. She recognized his unhappiness and approached him at just the right time and in the right way to convince him to go against his bros. 

I think Aubry's final vote problem is not that she's done nothing, I think it's that some of the people she has helped vote out will be bitter about it. Debbie may already be bitter, and depending on who goes and stays from here and how it happens, I can see both Cyd or Tai feeling very betrayed if she votes against them.

Edited May 5, 2016 by kakiphony

[How Bout That]

Quote

 I'm 100% sure he would not have held the idol if Aubrey hadn't coached him first.

Well of course you are. Let's go by what we see on the show.

[Hanahope]

I was surprised Jason stuck with his Joe vote, after hearing that TC and the obvious Kyle or Michelle vote talk.  I would have though he'd go for it and vote Michelle, since clearly no one was voting for Joe and if Aubry had decided to join Tai, Michelle could have been voted out with Tai's extra vote.  As it is, Tai simply wasted that extra vote (as all others have similarly before him).  I'm almost surprised the tribe didn't take the opportunity to try voting out Tai.  If they split votes, 2 for Kyle, 2 for Tai, even if Tai votes for Michelle twice and plays his idol, at worst they end up with a tie between Michelle and Kyle and then the three, Aubry, Joe and Cydney vote Kyle.  If Tai doesn't play his idol and its a 3 way tie, then A,J and C can vote for Tai to get him out with his idol, then vote Kyle out the next time.

[Dobian]

How many immunity challenges you won isn't always a determining factor in the vote.  Just ask Kelly Wiglesworth.

[Cynna]

7 minutes ago, How Bout That said:

Well of course you are. Let's go by what we see on the show.

This is a pretty odd response for a discussion forum.

[Special K]

Aubry was clearly shown encouraging/manipulating Tai, on several occasions, to leave the Bro-lliance in the episode where he did just that.   She sensed his unhappiness and drew him over to their alliance.  Which he now seems to think has been his core alliance all along (Aubry, Cyd, Joe).

[KimberStormer]

36 minutes ago, How Bout That said:

Sure she could make that argument...and be lying. What in the world did she have to do with that ouster? She didn't know that the plan was for Tai to give the II to Scot and make a super idol.

It didn't matter once Tai flipped on the boys what the plan was (the idol thing was meaningless once Tai voted the way he voted), and Aubry flipped Tai.  That flip was completely against Tai's interests and completely in Aubry's; of course Aubry should get credit for that.  It's like saying "Well how can you give Cirie/Natalie credit for that move, Erik is the one who gave up immunity, he should get the credit for it!"

[Lamb18]

This is my worst case scenario for next week:

Michelle and Tai team up. Tai will definitely play his idol. They decided to vote out Aubry. The other three decided to vote out Michelle since Tai will play the idol anyway. Tai gives his idol to Michelle. Aubry is voted out.

The only thing is that Tai and Michelle have not had much of a relationship so far so he might just keep it for himself. If only there were 6 people, then there could be a split Michelle/Tai vote, but splitting the vote won't help much here. Unless one of you strategy geniuses can think of a good scenario to get around this?

ETA: I know: Aubry will recruit Mark to be a fourth member of their alliance! It will be a tough decision for Mark, but Aubry persuades him by digging up a bunch of fat grubs, naming them Jason and Scot.

Edited May 5, 2016 by Lamb18

[iMonrey]

Quote

While Jason certainly has Scot's vote, Michelle certainly has Julia's.  

Oh I don't know. Michelle voted Julia off last week, Jason didn't. I'm pretty sure Debbie would never vote for Jason but the rest of them are up in the air, especially depending on who Jason might be sitting next to in the finals. If one of them were Tai he'd have at least a 50-50 chance of winning because Tai stinks at making a case for himself or defending himself so it would be between Jason and whoever else made the final three. 

At this point Tai is the best remaining goat to take to the F3 followed by Joe. Tai + Joe + Anyone Else = Anyone else wins.

[KimberStormer]

8 minutes ago, Lamb18 said:

This is my worst case scenario for next week:

Michelle and Tai team up. Tai will definitely play his idol. They decided to vote out Aubry. The other three decided to vote out Michelle since Tai will play the idol anyway. Tai gives his idol to Michelle. Aubry is voted out.

I feel that there is no chance whatsoever of Tai ever giving his idol to anyone else, even if it's necessary to save his alliance.  That's just not how Tai plays the game.  Besides I don't see why he would, when Aubry wants to take him to the end and he thinks Michele is a jury threat.

Anyway the previews always, always, always lie.  So I expect nothing whatever from this teased Michele/Tai teamup.

[Haleth]

1 hour ago, LanceM said:

RobC has been joking on RHAP that Mark survived this season only to meet his demise on one of the tribes on Second Chances.

SHE'S AT THE PETTING ZOO!

Edited May 5, 2016 by Haleth

[DEL901]

2 minutes ago, Haleth said:

SHE'S AT THE PETTING ZOO!

And, yes, she is a SHE.  All chickens are girls, even if they have boys names.

[azshadowwalker]

10 minutes ago, KimberStormer said:

I feel that there is no chance whatsoever of Tai ever giving his idol to anyone else, even if it's necessary to save his alliance.  That's just not how Tai plays the game. 

I don't think there's a chance at this point, but not because of how Tai plays,  but because of the late stage of the game. I think that idol would have already been played for Anna if Scot hadn't convinced him otherwise. He said something very close to that after that vote. It wasn't 100% that he was going to play it; it wasthat he was happy that Scot convinced him not to. 

[azshadowwalker]

1 hour ago, How Bout That said:

Well of course you are. Let's go by what we see on the show.

What we saw on the show was Tai being all in with the guys, even sabotaging camp and rubbing the SI in everyone's face,  until Aubry approached him and gave him another option. Later, we saw him begging Aubry to decide whether he should play his idol when Julia went home.  So, what we saw on the show was in Aubry's favor. 

[fishcakes]

1 hour ago, How Bout That said:

Aubrey has a very weak FTC case, especially against Tai. Aubrey has won zero Individual challenges and Tai has won multiple. Tai has made multiple large game changing moves, Aubrey has not. Tai has found an HII and scored  some extra votes, Aubrey has won diddly-squat. Aubrey has come up with a couple of decent ideas but she fails to make them come to fruition.

I agree that on paper, Tai has the better case. For the reasons you outlined (although @LanceM is right; Tai only won one individual IC), he's played an active game and Aubry's played a more reactive one. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but juries usually have more respect for an active game. In this case, though, I think the jury simply likes Aubry better, and maybe likes her better than anyone else left. If Aubry gets to the end, she beats anyone she's with. I think Tai can only beat Joe and maybe Cydney.

[backformore]

21 minutes ago, Haleth said:

SHE'S AT THE PETTING ZOO!

Oh, good!  Jason can take his kid to see a real animal!

[Tara Ariano]

In case you missed it, here's the Previously.TV post on the episode!

Poor Challenge Performance Spells Doom On Survivor

Excellent teamwork sends three of the final six Survivors on an epic animal-related reward, while the immunity challenge teaches us that there’s no 'I' in 'immunity'...wait, that can’t be right.

[riverheightsnancy]

51 minutes ago, Lamb18 said:

ETA: I know: Aubry will recruit Mark to be a fourth member of their alliance! It will be a tough decision for Mark, but Aubry persuades him by digging up a bunch of fat grubs, naming them Jason and Scot.

Have you noticed that we have not had a gross food challenge this season? Well, it's because Mark would win (he's a ringer), and Jeff just can't have a non-human winner! 

[fishcakes]

33 minutes ago, riverheightsnancy said:

Have you noticed that we have not had a gross food challenge this season? Well, it's because Mark would win (he's a ringer)

No family visit either, possibly because all of Mark's relatives have been made into soup.

[meep.meep]

2 hours ago, Haleth said:

Nooooo!  Not listening!  Lalalala!

It will remain my belief that she was given to a nice petting zoo where she will be loved and cared for.  And no one better tell me anything different. ;)

I heard it was a farm out in the country.....

The cool thing about chickens is they can make their own relatives! Probably not in time for loved ones visit though. 

Edited May 5, 2016 by meep.meep

[simplyme]

1 hour ago, Haleth said:

SHE'S AT THE PETTING ZOO!

I don't think TPTB would be featuring Mark so heavily if her story ended with "and then we ate her."  I'm pretty sure by this time in filming they'd figured out that chicken was a damn star and to make sure she got a happy ending they could show in the reunion show, because fewer things tick people off like coming to care about an animal only to have it die needlessly.  Good ending for Mark? Great publicity.  Bad ending for Mark?  Serious risk of public stonings and pitchforks and torches.

Do I know any of this?  No.  But they'd have to be idiots not to ride the chicken-powered positive PR train.

Edited May 5, 2016 by simplyme
Correcting from Typoese to English

[violet and green]

3 hours ago, Cynna said:

I'm not sure how Debbie's going to go on that one. She seemed pretty pissed to be voted out and blamed Aubrey who was her alliance. I'm trying to figure out who Debbie is smiling at all the time at TC.

I don't think she seemed pissed to be voted out. She took it in good humor/grace. But anyway, the person she has been smiling at ever since is Aubry.

[peachmangosteen]

11 minutes ago, violet and green said:

I don't think she seemed pissed to be voted out. She took it in good humor/grace. But anyway, the person she has been smiling at ever since is Aubry.

In Debbie's Ponderosa vid she was pretty angry at Aubry and said she wouldn't vote for her. I am pretty sure that she'd get over that by FTC time though and vote for Aubry. But then again I think she likes Michele and Cydney too and probably doesn't feel quite as betrayed by them so I don't know what she'd do if Aubry was against one or both of them.

Edited May 6, 2016 by peachmangosteen

[violet and green]

3 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

In Debbie's Ponderosa vid she was pretty angry at Aubry and said she wouldn't vote for her. I am pretty sure that she'd get over that by FTC time though and vote for Aubry. But then again I think she likes Michele and Cydney too and probably doesn't feel quite as betrayed by them so I don't know what she'd do if Aubry was against one or both of them.

Really?! I'm surprised. I don't watch the videos. I think she's entirely forgiven Aubry, though. She's been signalling her at TC with little reassuring looks for weeks.

[peachmangosteen]

1 minute ago, violet and green said:

She's been signalling her at TC with little reassuring looks for weeks.

What makes you so sure it's Aubry that Debbie has been smiling at? I haven't been paying close enough attention. 

[violet and green]

That was a horrible episode, but thank god that scrawly canvas man has gone. My love for Tai teeters on a knife edge, when he makes blunders like that.

I think Cydney has an amazing if not spooky Barbie-doll butt - but she is really horrible and aggressive in her reactions. Is that roid rage? Hehehe.

[violet and green]

3 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

What makes you so sure it's Aubry that Debbie has been smiling at? I haven't been paying close enough attention. 

I don't know how to explain it - it has just always seemed that way to me. Maybe I'm wrong!

God this new setup is hard to use... I wonder will the pale bits ever darken...

[ratgirlagogo]

1 hour ago, meep.meep said:

The cool thing about chickens is they can make their own relatives!

Wait, can't all animals do this?

[thejuicer]

4 hours ago, How Bout That said:

There is an interview on CBS where Probst says that Michelle reminds him of Parvati. Michelle is nothing like Parvati, I can only imagine he might think something like that because he knows Michelle made FTC.

They both have brown hair?

I agree - I think Michelle is non-offensive and pleasant enough but I'm not seeing where she's a great player. She hasn't orchestrated any moves and up until last episode was seen as Julia's BFF. She's clearly on the bottom of the alliance currently. If I were on the jury I would vote for anyone besides Joe over her.

[Wings]

Mark is doing well and enjoying spa treatments in Sweden.  

 

. 

[Ms Blue Jay]

They're both attractive brunettes who have worn yellow bikinis.... 

[Cynna]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

In Debbie's Ponderosa vid she was pretty angry at Aubry and said she wouldn't vote for her. I am pretty sure that she'd get over that by FTC time though and vote for Aubry. But then again I think she likes Michele and Cydney too and probably doesn't feel quite as betrayed by them so I don't know what she'd do if Aubry was against one or both of them.

Ahh that's where I saw it. @violet and green you're right that she was in good spirits, I just recalled her specifically mentioning Aubrey and that she had bad feelings towards her for voting her out.

1 hour ago, violet and green said:

I think she's entirely forgiven Aubry, though. She's been signalling her at TC with little reassuring looks for weeks.

I thought once it was Tai, really I'm not sure. It's usually as someone's heading to/from voting that she leans forward with a smile. The vibe I get from the Ponderosas is she's a bit on the outs there.

[azshadowwalker]

57 minutes ago, Cynna said:

 @violet and green

I thought once it was Tai, really I'm not sure. It's usually as someone's heading to/from voting that she leans forward with a smile. The vibe I get from the Ponderosas is she's a bit on the outs there.

I think it's impossible to know who is being looked at or reacted to, just based on the editing of reality TV. Beyond that, though, I just haven't been able to tell who she's looking at because they don't show everyone in one shot and the seating doesn't make for picking that up very well. Could be Aubry. Could be Tai. Could be Joe. At one time, it could have been Julia. 

[SnarkKitty]

8 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

This is very true.  Keeping Michele makes sense for Cydney.  Just like voting out Michele made sense for Tai.  Both of them executed weirdly though--I would have thought "you can't tell me what to do!" would have been a losing strategy to persuade your alliance.  BUT now that I've thought of it, she can't exactly say to Aubry "Well I want to keep Michele because that helps me beat you" so perhaps using her (genuine, I suppose) annoyance as a decoy reason was a great idea.  And it worked, after all!   (I still think voting out Tai would have been better for her though--why vote out Cupcake, who is not tight with Aubry, and keep Tai, who is?) 

(You don't mean to say that she doesn't look glowingly amazing, do you?)

No, I mean it's just wrong. She started out pretty damned good, and has gone onto amazing. Dammit. And, to her credit, her true feelings mainly exist in her interviews, not in ordering people around or dismissing their opinions. 

As long as Joe remains on the island, Cydney will never have to worry about being the most bossy, bad tempered, hard-headed and mean-spirited Survivor out there.  

[SlackerInc]

15 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

(You don't mean to say that she doesn't look glowingly amazing, do you?)

Her face, hair, and skin are lovely.  But that whole bodybuilder thing is gross (same goes for male bodybuilders, just to be clear).

Speaking of Cydney, What did she say in response to "nice job" from Jeff when he was putting on the immunity necklace?  The captions skipped it.  Does she speak a foreign language?

[How Bout That]

Quote

I agree that on paper, Tai has the better case. For the reasons you outlined (although @LanceM is right; Tai only won one individual IC), he's played an active game and Aubry's played a more reactive one. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but juries usually have more respect for an active game. In this case, though, I think the jury simply likes Aubry better, and maybe likes her better than anyone else left. If Aubry gets to the end, she beats anyone she's with. I think Tai can only beat Joe and maybe Cydney.

Not for nothin' but what I wrote was that Tai has won multiple individual challenges and that much is true. I specifically focused on individual challenges because that is the best indicator of how a player did in the Outplay portion of the competition.

Unfortunately, since at least HvV, it has become abundantly clear that FTC juries are absolutely not interested in identifying that player who actually did Outwit, Outplay and Outlast (although outlast is irrelevant in FTC). Nowadays, it's good enough to tell the jury that you have a wife at home and they will forgive you for being the male Chauvinist pig that you so clearly embodied in your previous season. That's what happened last season, so maybe Aubry has a shot at the million but she certainly is not the best player out there.

[laurakaye]

16 hours ago, Boilergal said:

I think Cydney is just at her limit of strangers being in her constant daily life/space making demands - and she's letting it show more.

admitting projecting here.

To Joe's request

Day 1 - Cool, Awesome I'll go collect firewood I'm a team player!!

Day 32 - Pretty much the only thing on the calendar for today is to collect firewood - do we have a fire? do we have wood right now?  I'll get to it - quit nagging.

As much as I like Cydney, she's been kind of "talk to the hand" since the show started, with Alecia being the first person she dismissed.  I couldn't stand Cydney at first - I couldn't figure out why she seemed so comfortable going along with the Goon Squad on Brawn.  She has redeemed herself to me, if only because she helped kick Bounty and Bench to the...well, the bench.  If it comes down to her and Aubry, it will be very interesting to see which way the votes fall.

Speaking of which, I long for the days when we had a Final 2 instead of 3.

[Jersey Guy 87]

14 hours ago, meep.meep said:

The cool thing about chickens is they can make their own relatives! Probably not in time for loved ones visit though. 

Not on their own - Mark would need a rooster to make relatives.

[ljenkins782]

17 hours ago, Dobian said:

Here's my list of who has the best odds of winning if they make the final three:

1. Aubry

2. Tai

3. Michelle

4. Cydney

5. Joe

Tai gets points for winning challenges and breaking up the bad tat alliance.  Aubry also get points though for orchestrating that break-up.  Aubry also gets the bad tat votes because of their bitterness toward Tai, plus she has Debbie's vote, so she has the edge if the two of them are in the final three.  Michelle gets votes for likeability and positioning herself well.  She wins, for example, if she gets into a final three with Cydney and Joe, and could even upset Tai in a vote with Tai and Joe or Tai and Cydney, though outside of the bitter bad tats the other jurors would likely vote for Tai being the more active and strategic player.  I don't see Cydney winning in any scenario.  No one really likes her or thinks she's all that great, she's just been useful for alliances.  And if Joe makes the final three (and he will) he really should just sit down and let it be the final two.

Debbie said in her Ponderosa video that Aubry lost her vote at the end if she gets there. She did say she'd stay friends with her, but she's not getting her vote. That could change based on who she's sitting next to or her FTC performance, but I wouldn't count Debbie as an automatic Aubry vote. I do think Aubry has a shot at Nick, Jason, Scot and maybe Neal's votes though. 

Michele has the hands down best shot if it's a predominantly bitter jury, she has only really betrayed one genuine ally. Nick doesn't count and I'm not even sure she actually voted for him. 

I feel like Cydney won't get the bad tat alliance votes and probably not Debbie's (again based on her comments at Ponderosa) so she may have a longer shot. Tai seems to be blowing up his own game despite all the advantages he's had so I'd put him as a long shot as well. Joe...well, I think he'd get Debbie's vote, so he could play a spoiler role in the vote count if it's a close vote between the other two. That's about as much impact as I can see him having. 

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I was surprised Jason stuck with his Joe vote, after hearing that TC and the obvious Kyle or Michelle vote talk.  I would have though he'd go for it and vote Michelle, since clearly no one was voting for Joe and if Aubry had decided to join Tai, Michelle could have been voted out with Tai's extra vote.  As it is, Tai simply wasted that extra vote (as all others have similarly before him).  I'm almost surprised the tribe didn't take the opportunity to try voting out Tai.  If they split votes, 2 for Kyle, 2 for Tai, even if Tai votes for Michelle twice and plays his idol, at worst they end up with a tie between Michelle and Kyle and then the three, Aubry, Joe and Cydney vote Kyle.  If Tai doesn't play his idol and its a 3 way tie, then A,J and C can vote for Tai to get him out with his idol, then vote Kyle out the next time.

Granted, he didn't know that Tai had a second vote (did he? If Tai DIDN'T tell him, that was a blunder on Tai's part as that would have been a compelling reason for Jason to vote Michelle). That being said...why NOT vote Michelle? Just take a shot in the dark that more people are voting that way. Absolutely no one was voting for Joe. Incredibly stupid choice. But per his own words at Ponderosa and the Day After video, he would have played exactly the same, so...stupid AND stubborn. Not that I would have expected anything different. 

At this point, I'm wondering if that extra vote is ever going to work out/have an impact on the game. At least Tai didn't get bounced upon using it, which is more than Dan or Stephen can say. 

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There is an interview on CBS where Probst says that Michelle reminds him of Parvati. Michelle is nothing like Parvati, I can only imagine he might think something like that because he knows Michelle made FTC.

Seriously? I see absolutely nothing alike about those two, besides the aforementioned brown hair and yellow bikinis. The nearly forgotten Anna from the Beauty Tribe, yes; Michelle, not at all. I'd agree that that points to an FTC for Michelle and just further proves how little attention Probst pays to women in general. He has a few go-to women that he'll reference repeatedly and ignores the rest.