2015 Awards Season Discussion

[mishy]

One nomination I am slightly confused about, so I'm hoping someone can help me out here: Did John Legend and Common purposely decide to submit the song with their real names instead of stage names, or did the Academy decide that for them?  At first I thought maybe the Academy required it, but I remember Eminem being announced as the winner, and they used Adele's stage name when she won.  I'm just curious if it was strategic on the two artists' part (don't know what that strategy would be necessarily) or if it was something else.

Adele's name is Adele Adkins, what stage name? I'm pretty sure that John Legend is credited on all his songs as John Stephens (his real name) in the Songwriter's Guild (or whatever it's called). I recall his being nominated for Grammy's and he is credited as John Stephens.

[Princess Sparkle]

Adele's name is Adele Adkins, what stage name? I'm pretty sure that John Legend is credited on all his songs as John Stephens (his real name) in the Songwriter's Guild (or whatever it's called). I recall his being nominated for Grammy's and he is credited as John Stephens.

When I said Adele's stage name, I meant that she was just nominated as "Adele" vs her full name (like when "Cher" was nominated vs "Cher Sarkisian" being nominated).

 

That makes sense about John Legend though - I got thrown, because at the Globes they were credited as John Legend/Common and it took me a second to realize who they were referring to when I saw the Oscar noms.

[vb68]

I feel bad for Aniston too.  From what I understand, she really was campaigning her heart out.  And hey if Sandra Bullock can get in For The Blind Side, I would have given Jennifer a slot here.

 

I saw the Selma snub coming from a mile away.  The screener debacle and  I'll say it, I think The LBJ  stuff had an impact.  I saw Chris Matthews going after it.   I'm actually a little surprised it got the Best Picture slot.

 

 

Julianne Moore seems to have all the ducks in line for a win.  The right "Type" of role and the "it's time to honor her for her body of work" big M.

 

I don't know if it's because it is a weak year, but I feel like all the winners in the big categories  seem very, very predictable.  Boyhood, Linklater for Director, Micheal Keaton, Julianne Moore, J.K.  Simmons, and Patricia Arquette.   I think they all win.

Edited January 15, 2015 by vb68

[mishy]

When I said Adele's stage name, I meant that she was just nominated as "Adele" vs her full name (like when "Cher" was nominated vs "Cher Sarkisian" being nominated).

This might just go back to the thing about the songwriters guild. Adele is credited on all the songs she writes as Adele Adkins and maybe any song that Cher writes she is only credited as Cher. I think I recall her being nominated at both the Globes and Oscars as lyrics by Adele Adkins, performed by Adele.

[Princess Sparkle]

 

 

I don't know if it's because it is a weak year, but I feel like all the winners in the big categories  seem very, very predictable.  Boyhood, Linklater for Director, Micheal Keaton, Julianne Moore, J.K.  Simmons, and Patricia Arquette.   I think they all win.

Yeah, I'm getting the feeling like this will be just like the 2010 Oscars, where the winners were practically set in stone by the Golden Globes (though, at least that year had a bit of a race for Best Picture).

[slowpoked]

I feel bad for Aniston too.  From what I understand, she really was campaigning her heart out.  And hey if Sandra Bullock can get in For The Blind Side, I would have given Jennifer a slot here.

 

I feel like this was her best shot at finally breaking out, as an actress that most everyone can finally take more seriously, and breaking free, from that Brangelina stigma. Buy hey, maybe after this, she can get better roles. 

 

 

Boyhood, Linklater for Director, Micheal Keaton, Julianne Moore, J.K.  Simmons, and Patricia Arquette.   I think they all win.

It does seem predictable. The only unpredictability came in the nominations this year. But I don't see anyone upsetting any of the favorites.

 

I love Meryl, but her work in Into the Woods was not Oscar-worthy, IMO. It would have been nice to give her slot to an out-of-nowhere choice, like Carrie Coon in Gone Girl. She was amazing as Ben's twin. And if McCarthy in Bridesmaids and Jonah Hill in Moneyball can get acting noms....Gah, I'm still bitter about that movie completely being ignored except for Rosamund.

Edited January 15, 2015 by slowpoked

[absnow54]

I don't know if it's because it is a weak year, but I feel like all the winners in the big categories  seem very, very predictable.  Boyhood, Linklater for Director, Micheal Keaton, Julianne Moore, J.K.  Simmons, and Patricia Arquette.   I think they all win.

I don't think Michael Keaton is a lock. I'd say that Eddie Redmayne has just as good a shot. I think the SAG awards will be the deciding factor. Keaton has the comeback momentum, but Redmayne has every Oscar bait box checked off on his scorecard.  

Edited January 15, 2015 by absnow54

[Amethyst]

Julianne Moore seems to have all the ducks in line for a win.  The right "Type" of role and the "it's time to honor her for her body of work" big M.

 

IA.  Even though a lot of people are campaigning for Rosamund Pike, I think it's Julianne's to lose.  

[Princess Sparkle]

I do think it's interesting that Unbroken had all this buzz before it came out and that it was said to be a big factor in awards season (I even said in this thread that if it was any good, I thought Angelina would get a nomination) but it really fizzled in a big way.  

[BatmanBeatles]

Unbroken might have had big buzz before it came out, but it wasn't exactly a critical darling.

[Dejana]

Yeah, I'm getting the feeling like this will be just like the 2010 Oscars, where the winners were practically set in stone by the Golden Globes (though, at least that year had a bit of a race for Best Picture).

 

Maybe a frontrunner will pull a Melissa Leo and at least make it a contest.

 

From what I've seen of Cooper's reviews for American Sniper, they're excellent, career-best. He seems a million miles away from The Hangover Dude in the incessant ads for it. It's really his American Hustle nomination last year that was probably superfluous. As for this year's Best Actor race, I'd swap out Carell and Cumberbatch for Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal.

 

Selma is going to be studied by awards watchers for years as a case study in how to massively screw up an Oscar campaign. I doubt the LBJ controversy helped, but the Zero Dark Thirty furor was even bigger and it got more nods. I think Paramount counted on the guild award momentum to help the box office and then it would ride the crest of Oscar glory, but it simply never came. Not even the public is here for it; it might end up making the same amount Malcolm X did back in 1992, which had Denzel and Spike Lee, granted, but still, 20+ years of inflation.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Dejana

[yourstruly]

I heard they started filming Selma in June, so they were under the gun from the beginning. They should have started and finished earlier or just held it back for next year.

 

And the people that vote should stop being so lazy and actually go see the movie instead of demanding that screeners be sent to them. Getting a DVD in the mail in time should not be a factor in determining whether a movie is award-worthy or not. Among other lame criteria that are apparently important to these people.

Edited January 15, 2015 by yourstruly

[slowpoked]

Even though a lot of people are campaigning for Rosamund Pike, 

Really?! From what I read on the campaigning trail, it seems like Reese has the best chance of upsetting Julianne. She has the comeback factor working for her.

 

If people are indeed campaigning hard for Pike, then maybe that's how GG got shut out in the other categories. All their eggs are in her basket. 

[vb68]

 

And the people that vote should stop being so lazy and actually go see the movie instead of demanding that screeners be sent to them. Getting a DVD in the mail in time should not be a factor in determining whether a movie is award-worthy or not. Among other lame criteria that are apparently important to these people.

 

I completely agree with this.  I find it really irritating that they rely so much on screeners.   Go out and see the films in the theater.  

 

When they expanded the available slots for Best Picture, I think it was in response to The Dark Knight missing out, and they wanted to ensure that there was space for a big commercial hit.   Well I don't think it's ever really worked out that way.  This year they had the room and certainly could have put Guardians of The Galaxy in if they wanted.  I'm not saying they should have, but in a generally acknowledged weak field they could have thrown the bone.   I think it could have livened things up a bit when there were very few surprises today too.

Edited January 15, 2015 by vb68

[AshleyN]

I heard they started filming Selma in June, so they were under the gun from the beginning. They should have started and finished earlier or just held it back for next year.

 

And the people that vote should stop being so lazy and actually go see the movie instead of demanding that screeners be sent to them. Getting a DVD in the mail in time should not be a factor in determining whether a movie is award-worthy or not. Among other lame criteria that are apparently important to these people.

I don't disagree with you in general, but in some cases that's not really an option - a lot of films are only available in limited release before the end of the nomination period. I believe Selma only opened wide this past weekend, while something like Still Alice still hasn't. A Most Violent Year opened on New Year's Eve in FOUR THEATRES. There are others that didn't open until Christmas Day or later, and honestly, Academy voters have lives too - I don't think they should necessarily be expected to have to rush out to see six movies in a week just because the studios/distributors waited to the last minute to release them.

Edited January 15, 2015 by AshleyN

[proserpina65]

How does a film get nominated for Best Picture with no other nominations and, on the flip side of that, how does a film get nominated for Best Original Screenplay, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Director and not get nominated for Best Picture?

 

It's got to do with how the nominating process is done.  For Best Picture, all Academy members are permitted to submit a ballot, but for other categories, only members of that particular branch get to submit ballots.  And for some categories (Best Documentary for example), the requirements are even more strict.  So a film could be very popular with Academy members overall, but not enough with individual branches, and vice versa.

[Dejana]

Here's a list of all the movies that vied for Oscar nods this year. Obviously, some can be skipped, but that would be a lot of trips to the theater. 

[slowpoked]

I don't disagree with you in general, but in some cases that's not really an option - a lot of films are only available in limited release before the end of the nomination period. I believe Selma only opened wide this past weekend, while something like Still Alice still hasn't. A Most Violent Year opened on New Year's Eve in FOUR THEATRES. There are others that didn't open until Christmas Day or later, and honestly, Academy voters have lives too - I don't think they should necessarily be expected to have to rush out to see six movies in a week just because the studios/distributors waited to the last minute to release them.

I know there's a scientific method to this, but why are Oscar movies released just before the year ends again? Why couldn't they be released throughout the year, so at least it looks like the Oscars for the Year____, not just Oscars for the months of October - December.

[Dejana]

I know there's a scientific method to this, but why are Oscar movies released just before the year ends again? Why couldn't they be released throughout the year, so at least it looks like the Oscars for the Year____, not just Oscars for the months of October - December.

 

No one wants their movie to be forgotten in favor of something that came out later, and ideally, the awards season publicity/hype draws people into theaters, rather than just the home market, with a movie that came out months ago (and might be ignored). Oscar potential is probably what's keeping the low/mid-budget adult drama afloat.

[yourstruly]

 

Why couldn't they be released throughout the year, so at least it looks like the Oscars for the Year____, not just Oscars for the months of October - December.

 

Maybe seeing that Boyhood came out in the summer and Grand Budapest Hotel in early spring will open people's minds. Although it helps that they are both very good, non Oscar-bait movies.

Edited January 15, 2015 by yourstruly

[JBC344]

I know there's a scientific method to this, but why are Oscar movies released just before the year ends again? Why couldn't they be released throughout the year, so at least it looks like the Oscars for the Year____, not just Oscars for the months of October - December.

The shortest answer is that honestly most people would forget them.  Studios need the momentum from the movie's release to carry them through the awards season.  There are few exceptions of course to the rule, Julia Roberts, Grand Budapest Hotel, but for the most part people tend to forget how "good" a movie is over time.  Also it is a lot easier to compare movies when you see them over a shorter time period.

[Shannon L.]

 

Boyhood, Linklater for Director, Micheal Keaton, Julianne Moore, J.K.  Simmons, and Patricia Arquette.   I think they all win.

I'm not so sure about Keaton.  I think Eddie Redmayne could still take it. 

 

 

As for this year's Best Actor race, I'd swap out Carell and Cumberbatch for Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal.

I still have to see American Sniper, but if I could only choose 5 actors from the nominated group, plus Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal, I'd have probably ended up flipping a coin.  I wasn't crazy about Birdman, so, in spite of the fact that I liked his performance, I'd have probably swapped Keaton for Oyelowo, simply because I liked the movie Selma better.  And if I'm going to go that route, I liked Nightcrawler as a whole better than Foxcatcher, so that would probably be my other swap. 

 

prosperina65, thanks for the reminder on who votes for the movies.  I guess it makes sense how some can slip into or not make it into certain categories.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Shannon L.

[vb68]

 

I'm not so sure about Keaton.  I think Eddie Redmayne could still take it.

 

 

I think Keaton's way out in front.  Plus I think his speech at the Golden Globes probably clinched it.

Edited January 15, 2015 by vb68

[slowpoked]

 but for the most part people tend to forget how "good" a movie is over time.  

True. I'm of the believer that a truly great movie or performance should stand the test of time - like Silence of the Lambs, or Diane Lane in Unfaithful, or like what you mentioned Grand Budapest Hotel. But maybe I'm just being idealistic. 

 

I just kinda don't like it that a movie is obviously angling for awards glory by being shown towards the last days of the year. And then you suffer screener debacles like Selma did. Of course, that's on the studio more than the voters, but still.

[Skyline]

Maybe a frontrunner will pull a Melissa Leo and at least make it a contest.

 

From what I've seen of Cooper's reviews for American Sniper, they're excellent, career-best. He seems a million miles away from The Hangover Dude in the incessant ads for it. It's really his American Hustle nomination last year that was probably superfluous. As for this year's Best Actor race, I'd swap out Carell and Cumberbatch for Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal.

 

Selma is going to be studied by awards watchers for years as a case study in how to massively screw up an Oscar campaign. I doubt the LBJ controversy helped, but the Zero Dark Thirty furor was even bigger and it got more nods. I think Paramount counted on the guild award momentum to help the box office and then it would ride the crest of Oscar glory, but it simply never came. Not even the public is here for it; it might end up making the same amount Malcolm X did back in 1992, which had Denzel and Spike Lee, granted, but still, 20+ years of inflation.

 

 

 

Cooper's the spoiler. I think there's a slim shot at him actually winning. Hollywood seems to be pulling for him. His movie is going to break even more box office records this weekend. Look for a 50 million+ opening.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Skyline

[Danny Franks]

Having watched Birdman the other night, I have to say that the nominations for Michael Keaton and Ed Norton are well deserved. Both are great in that movie, really, really good. Emma Stone is good too, but I don't know she has enough to do to warrant an Oscar nom. Her tirade at Michael Keaton's character was excellent, though.

 

I think Cooper wins though, for being in a big rah-rah movie and playing someone based on a real person. 

[methodwriter85]

    It'd be interesting if Cooper gets the "Here's the Oscar we would have given you had it not been for Daniel Day-Lewis making a movie that year!" treatment.

 

   I still think Eddie Redmayne has a great shot. If he were still like 28, absolutely not. But he's just old enough to not get dismissed as "well, you're so young so you have many chances."

[KatWay]

 

It'd be interesting if Cooper gets the "Here's the Oscar we would have given you had it not been for Daniel Day-Lewis making a movie that year!" treatment.

I know he was a fan favourite of sorts, but wasn't the "runner-up" to DDL (not that anyone doubted he'd win) Hugh Jackman more than Bradley Cooper? IIRC Cooper didn't exactly win a lot of the minor awards prior.

[manbearpig]

I can't really imagine a situation where Bradley Cooper won over anyone else in his category in 2012, never mind being the runner up. Then again I can't understand why he has one Oscar nomination, never mind three. He was great as Rocket Racoon though. First time I've liked him since Alias, anyway.

[King of Birds]

Studios need the momentum from the movie's release to carry them through the awards season.

Good luck to them in December, when Star Wars comes out on the 18th. That'll kill the Oscar/ indie type movies this year.

[Rick Kitchen]

That The Lego Movie missed an animation nomination is really mind boggling.

 

I don't think it qualified  because there was too much live action content.

 

 

 

(The Timothy Hutton thing - just watched Ordinary People for the first time and my husband read on his phone that he won for Best SUPPORTING Actor.)….wut? He's in 95% of the movie.

 

That's the way they do things with younger actors in their first major roles.

[UniqBlue69]

For the record, Bradley now has 4 nominations. He's also nominated as one of the producers for American Sniper. I've loved him since Alias so I can't say I'm disappointed at all.

Edited January 16, 2015 by UniqBlue69

[Quof]

I saw Elephant Man on Broadway over Christmas, thinking "It's Bradley Cooper, he's cute, it'll be fun."  He gave an amazing performance, and is getting rave reviews. 

[anyanka323]

If the ratings for the Oscars are down, possibly even lower than 2008, AMPAS has only themselves and their voting members to blame.  They chose to nominate a slate of best picture nominees that had as its highest grossing film as of today at $60 million (Grand Budapest Hotel).  There was room to nominate two more, possibly Gone Girl or Guardians of the Galaxy.  Yeah, they would have been fillers, but they were movies that people may have seen.  I don't think that even a "Everything is Awesome" number is going to attract more people to watch. 

 

I think that the dates need to be changed for eligibility for best picture.  It's ridicolous when two of the nominees (Selma and American Sniper) opened in very limited release Christmas.  There should be two cut off dates - second week of December for limited release (NY/LA) and Christmas weekend for an expanded platform release (Chicago/Boston/San Francisco,etc). 

 

I do think that Boyhood and Grand Budapest did benefit from an earlier release date than normal for prestige films.  Boyhood, in particular, seemed to benefit from the less than stellar summer movie offerings and got into more theaters than it would have if it had been released later.  Grand Budapest seemed to benefit from an earlier DVD release as well. 

 

I think next December is going to be interesting.  Most multiplexes are going to be showing Star Wars in at least a third of their screens during its first and second weeks of release.  That leaves fewer screens available for what is the most competitive time to release a movie.  That may force an earlier release of the smaller, prestige films and get them into theaters outside of NYC and LA sooner than in previous years. 

[Trini]

I don't think it qualified  because there was too much live action content.

 

Nah, it was definitely on the list of eligible films... I can't find the article where I read that right now. Did it have more live-action than Happy Feet? (Which won that year)

[methodwriter85]

I can't really imagine a situation where Bradley Cooper won over anyone else in his category in 2012, never mind being the runner up. Then again I can't understand why he has one Oscar nomination, never mind three. He was great as Rocket Racoon though. First time I've liked him since Alias, anyway.

 

Bradley Cooper was pretty damn amazing in Silver Linings Playbook. I'm just saying. He absolutely made me forget who he was and believe that he was a loser bipolar guy from a middle-class Philadelphia neighborhood.

[ancslove]

Good luck to them in December, when Star Wars comes out on the 18th. That'll kill the Oscar/ indie type movies this year.

 

I don't think it'll be any different from all the Hobbit films coming out in December.  The Oscar movies will release in December, and then the growing buzz for the frontrunners will carry the studios through January.

[mortonsalt]

I think Keaton's way out in front.  Plus I think his speech at the Golden Globes probably clinched it.

 

I don't know if he's way out in front, but I think it's getting wider now after giving the 3 televised speeches that he's given so far (not including the Hollywood Movie Award and People Magazine Award speeches which were quite good too). 

Birdman was able to tie with The Grand Budapest Hotel for most nominations this morning. It did miss one big category in editing, but there were some doubts about that because the way that it was filmed as one long take that it wouldn't get into editing. I thought it could overcome those doubts because it was nominated for the editing guild award, but those awards are split into drama and comedy, so there was less competition for it at the ACE awards. Overall, it's still stronger than The Theory of Everything, so that should help Keaton. 

 

More importantly though, Keaton has the narrative on his side. He may have never been nominated before, which could hurt him, but on the flip side of that, he's making it work for him by really appreciating the awards he has won this season even if not many people take them seriously like the critics choice awards tonight or the two bought awards. He might be annoying to some with his speeches, but mostly so far, he's played it almost perfectly. He truly feels humble and sincere without too much backlash like some other winners have experienced. 

 

I admit I am biased though because I would like Keaton to win not really because I preferred his performance the most out of all the nominees, but mostly because I don't think he'll ever get this close again while I'm sure Redmayne will be back again and may even win next year for The Danish Girl. Plus, I think it would be neat if most of the actors that have played Batman won Oscars. (I think it's too late for Adam West though.) I mean I did love his performance, but the Oscars are hardly about the best performance anyways otherwise Brendan Gleeson and Tom Hardy should have some kind of chance to be nominated instead of no chance, and Timothy Spall would have been nominated and been a favorite to win since he won at Cannes and won the two out of three of the big critics awards. 

Edited January 16, 2015 by mortonsalt

[sally-can-wait]

Speaking of comebacks, I was kind of hoping Rene Russo would get some awards love for "Nightcrawler". I knew she probably wouldn't, but still. I thought she was great.

I’m right there with you on Russo. For me, I would kick out either Laura Dern from Wild or Emma Stone from Birdman and put Russo in their place. For the record, I have seen all three performances and think Russo tops them both.

 

Also, about Wild...was anyone else distracted by the fact that Reese actually looked OLDER in the flashback scenes? I think it was the hair color and the clothes but it completely took me out of the movie.

 

I have to say my biggest disappointed is Jake Gyllenhaal not getting a nom for Nightcrawler. I actually thought he deserved a Sporting Actor nod for Prisoners last year as well. He is just getting better and better with each film. I hope he gets his due someday soon.

[absnow54]

Keaton took home the Critic's Choice for Best Actor last night over Redmayne, and while the CCA isn't the best for predicting Oscar winners, they've been pretty consistent with the actor category, so I agree that Keaton has pulled ahead.

[Athena]

I think Keaton is pulling ahead as well because the others (especially Cumberbatch and Redmayne) will split the vote. Keeton has his comeback story and he's been in the business a long time.

[manbearpig]

Bradley Cooper was pretty damn amazing in Silver Linings Playbook. I'm just saying. He absolutely made me forget who he was and believe that he was a loser bipolar guy from a middle-class Philadelphia neighborhood.

 

I didn't think anything about Silver Linings Playbook was award worthy, although I did like Jennifer Lawrence as Tiffany even though she was too young for the role. I liked the book more than the movie, but I can't say I actually cared for either. I think I just dislike Cooper. I blame Limitless.

[Sara2009]

I was actually rooting for Hugh Jackman that year. His singing wasn't the greatest, but his acting blew me away.

I couldn't really argue against Daniel Day-Lewis winning, though.

Bradley Cooper probably would've been my third choice.

[Shannon L.]

 

I think Keaton is pulling ahead as well because the others (especially Cumberbatch and Redmayne) will split the vote.

This is possible.  I know that after I saw Theory of Everything, I was couldn't imagine anyone beating Redmayne.  Then, when I left The Imitation Game, my thought was "damn!  Cumberbatch and Redmayne are neck and neck in my book".  I have always liked Michael Keaton and found his and Ed Norton's performances to be the best thing about Birdman, so I won't be disappointed if he wins.  Like I said, imo, this is a really strong category this year.

[aradia22]

Is it just me or are there way too many awards shows? Golden Globes, SAG awards, Critics... How do they even find outfits for them all or write different speeches? I wouldn't discount the effect of all the competing shows in pulling focus from the Oscars.

[slowpoked]

Hee! Julianne Moore forgot to mention Marion Cotiliard during her speech at the CCAs. Mentioned every single nominee except her. Might still be the effect of the after-shock of the surprise nomination. 

[JBC344]

Julianne has tweeted her embarrassment of forgetting Marion.  Easy mistake.

[ruby24]

There are too many shows, but I think for general audiences, the Oscars triple the ratings of say, the Golden Globes, which is the second highest. So, most people don't even see this other stuff. But for awards obsessives like me, it does seem like a lot (but I watch them all anyway, lol). SAG is next! Then Bafta, then finally, the Oscars.

[caracas1914]

My problem with Eddie Redmayne winning is a biased on my part I fully confess.  it is because it's the flashy role like his  that screams awards bait. NOT the actor's fault, but Sometimes it's hard to separate the bells and whistles of a flashy part from the actor themselves.

 

Something like what Rafe Feinnes did in Grand Budapest Hotel is IMO as much, if not more difficult;, making a comic persona with both attractive and unattractive characteristics come alive on screen.    There is nothing noble about that role yet acting wise it is such a gem.

Edited January 16, 2015 by caracas1914

[slowpoked]

Julianne has tweeted her embarrassment of forgetting Marion.  Easy mistake.

I'm sure she didn't mean any harm or it's not any slight towards Marion. I just thought it was kind of funny, and it IS easy to forget there are six nominees instead of the usual five.