S41.E06: Ready to Play Like a Lion

[SVNBob]

On 10/27/2021 at 8:28 PM, GenerationX said:

“Mergatory”. Heh.

That's going into the Lexicon for sure.

On 10/27/2021 at 8:37 PM, tracyscott76 said:

I so wanted Erika to just grab the hammer right after Jeff laid it down and smash the hell out of that hourglass right then and there.

I know that if I was in her place, Peachy would barely have the hammer out of his bag before there were glass shards all over that beach.

14 hours ago, cherrypj said:

That fucking Jeffhanger. C'mon now. 

Hah!  Another Lexicon entry!

13 hours ago, Haleth said:

WRT Erica becoming the hero if she smashes the hourglass, how many times have we seen someone do something “heroic” for the good of others (give up a reward for example) only to be one that gets voted out that night?  I wouldn’t trust the unmerged 5 to remember anything at Tribal. She’s a target no matter what she does. 

I get your point, but that won't happen here.  If Erika does use her Change History Advantage, she and the other 5 in Merge-atory will become the Red Tribe and gain immunity at that first TC.  So she'll be safe, alongside 5 potential new allies.  And while she might be pissing off the other 6 people, one of them will be voted out, so she'll really only have to deal with 5 people angry at her afterwards.

[millennium]

4 hours ago, BK1978 said:

Same here and I was told by others that I had no right to have such an opinion.

LOL.

I am so damn happy to have grown up in the 60s and 70s.

[Haleth]

4 hours ago, SVNBob said:

I get your point, but that won't happen here.  If Erika does use her Change History Advantage, she and the other 5 in Merge-atory will become the Red Tribe and gain immunity at that first TC.  So she'll be safe, alongside 5 potential new allies.  And while she might be pissing off the other 6 people, one of them will be voted out, so she'll really only have to deal with 5 people angry at her afterwards.

Oh, that's right.  I'm so confused by all the new rules. 

At the next TC will all 12 players vote or only the 6 unmerged (whichever side survives the hourglass decision)? 

If Erica does not smash the glass and joins the current 5 who must go to TC, is she at risk?  Did Jeff say anything about her having immunity as a reward for being sent away?  (He did not say that, did he?)  In that case there would be no reason to not break it; she'll be returning to the 5 plus her that avoid TC.  Right?

[Chicago Redshirt]

15 minutes ago, Haleth said:

Oh, that's right.  I'm so confused by all the new rules. 

At the next TC will all 12 players vote or only the 6 unmerged (whichever side survives the hourglass decision)? 

If Erica does not smash the glass and joins the current 5 who must go to TC, is she at risk?  Did Jeff say anything about her having immunity as a reward for being sent away?  (He did not say that, did he?)  In that case there would be no reason to not break it; she'll be returning to the 5 plus her that avoid TC.  Right?

If Erika does not turn back time:

Erika and the five losers in the immunity challenge (Shan/Tiffany/Liana/Xander/Heather) will compete for individual immunity. The five people who lose in that second challenge will be up for elimination with all 12 players eligible to vote. Shan has an idol and an extra vote; Xander has an idol and an extra vote; Liana has a steal an idol/advantage advantage and she knows (at a minimum) that Shan, Xander and Naseer have idols. 

If Erika turns back time:

Erika and the five losers will be safe. Danny/DeShawn/Sydney/Evvie/Ricard and Naseer will compete for individual immunity. All players will vote for the five who do not win individual immunity. Naseer has an immunity idol and DeShawn has an extra vote. 

Here are the pros and cons for each decision (at least from my perspective from the comfort of my living room):

Potential TBT pros:

It's a big move and will get talked about. It will be on her Survivor resume, hyped as a game changer, etc.

It gets her safety for a week, which sometimes is all you can ask for. 

It's clearly what production wants her to do, and it's probably better to not disappoint production.

It will potentially earn her the gratitude of the five players that she saves from Tribal and the six of them can form an alliance that could take her deep in the game. 

Potential TBT cons:

It also earns her the likely undying hatred of the five players who won immunity only to have her strip it from them, They will likely conspire to get her out at the earliest opportunity, and they almost certainly won't vote to give her a million dollars if she somehow makes it that far.

She hurts three of the players from her former tribe (Danny, DeShawn, Naseer). Unbeknownst to Erika, two of those three of the Blue Tribe were eager enough to get rid of her that they tried throwing a challenge to do so and the only reason the third didn't was because he realized throwing a challenge is generally a bad strategy. So Naseer had no problem with kicking Erika off. But in any case, alienating three members of your tribe when you've been forced to be two days behind everyone else in bonding with the players from other tribes doesn't seem like the best strategy.

Up till now, she has no known connections apart from her tribe, and there is no reason for her to believe that the five that she saves will stick with her longterm. The rationale might sink in: if she's willing to stab half her tribe in the back like that, why should you want to work with her?

TBT potentially risks the Blue Tribe Strong strategy that would seem to be an obvious option. If all six Blue Tribe members vote for a single target they could be successful in running the table. 

Not TBT may be perceived, even by the five other players who would have to compete as they would under the status quo, as less harmful. It feels less bad to have to compete in an immunity challenge like you were originally supposed to than to have had a couple days of feeling safe ripped away from you.

[JudyObscure]

8 hours ago, ZeeEnnui said:

 

 

"I really, really believe that this is the hardest season of Survivor." Okay, I want to know how much the producers are paying contestants to say this each episode. It's not harder, it's just hella confusing. You basically need a doctorate in

Unless they were there for all the other seasons they have no right to say that.  Jeff and others have said that Africa was the worst, with unbelievable heat, bug bites over the entire body, bad water, and having to drink blood.  Any season where the tribes have had to endure torrential rain all night long, they have been visibly shaken in the morning with formerly tough people threatening to quit. I really don't believe this is the worst.

I'm also tired of hearing them say, "This is the most diverse season ever."  I wasn't counting by labels as I watched every season, but I seem to remember seasons with disabled people, Muslims, Christians, Little People, Native Americans, and truly old people. I think CBS has forgotten that diverse means varied, not dark skinned.

11 hours ago, Valerie said:

I like Erika and I don't get where all the hate is coming from.

 I'm looking forward to seeing her smashing  glass,  but I can't get fully on board her train.  I remember her wanting her tribe to throw a challenge just so she could have the fun of voting someone off, preferably Sidney.  Next we see her going to the exile island, so surprised that they would send her rather than Naseer when she is such a superior player.  She was all frightened, tearful, and sorry for herself until Jeff came along with the big powerful advantage and all of a sudden she was happy and excited and didn't seem to mind being alone on the island at all.  I don't hate her, but she's just okay to me.

[Guest]

Just now, JudyObscure said:

I'm looking forward to seeing her smashing  glass,  but I can't get fully on board her train.  I remember her wanting her tribe to throw a challenge just so she could have the fun of voting someone off, preferably Sidney.  Next we see her going to the exile island, so surprised that they would send her rather than Naseer when she is such a superior player.  She was all frightened, tearful, and sorry for herself until Jeff came along with the big powerful advantage and all of a sudden she was happy and excited and didn't seem to mind being alone on the island at all.  I don't hate her, but she's just okay to me.

I could be wrong, but I don't believe Erika said anything about wanting to throw a challenge. She said she was ready to start playing and couldn't really because her tribe hadn't lost yet. Deshawn and Danny were the only ones who I remember taking it to the extreme of wanting to throw a challenge. And they were certainly the only ones who actually tried it.

And Erika was not "so surprised" that they sent her to exile island over Naseer. Disappointed perhaps, but not surprised. She said she figured the rock paper scissors reasoning was just a cover to spare her feelings and that she knew she was on the bottom.

And who wouldn't be feeling a little sorry for themselves to have their outcast status made plain as day and have to spend all that time alone with the bare minimum of supplies, and then be happy when offered a huge opportunity? I mean, I'm not her biggest fan or anything, but I can't hold her reactions against her. They seem perfectly natural to me.

[ProfCrash]

5 hours ago, SVNBob said:

That's going into the Lexicon for sure.

I know that if I was in her place, Peachy would barely have the hammer out of his bag before there were glass shards all over that beach.

Hah!  Another Lexicon entry!

I get your point, but that won't happen here.  If Erika does use her Change History Advantage, she and the other 5 in Merge-atory will become the Red Tribe and gain immunity at that first TC.  So she'll be safe, alongside 5 potential new allies.  And while she might be pissing off the other 6 people, one of them will be voted out, so she'll really only have to deal with 5 people angry at her afterwards.

Erika knows she is at the bottom of the blue tribe. She doesn't believe the rock, paper, scissors crap that they tossed out to save Nasser. Three of her old tribemates made the decision to send her to exile and she knows that. She told Jeff that much. The only people she potentially walks away from are Evvie and Ricard.

Erika won't know this when she makes her decision so it won't come into play, but the Blue tribe was targeting her to be the one voted out at the first merge tribal. Instead of working to stay Blue strong, and keep their numbers, Danny and DeShawn were fine with voting out Erika. Not Liana or Shan or Tiffany but Erika. Danny and DeShawn had three other female targets that were not Blue but they were willing to take out Erika.

If Erika turns back time, Evvie and Ricard would become the next targets, because Blue is not going to vote off a Blue player. The men are going to push for Evvie, because they are worried about a womens alliance and Evvie was one of the women who was voting off the men. So Erika only has one person that she will have walked away from. Honestly, ricard is a logical enough player to understand her choice and to know that he needs Erika to take out the Blue tribe, not that Erika will know that.

Erika gains 4 new allies. Heather was already Blue so she is not a gain and I am not sure that she is an ally. But Erika saves Xander, Shan, Liana, and Tiffany. They would also know that Erika was targeted by her old tribe so should see that Erika is an important vote for them.

Erika can still sell her decision to turn back time to the Blue tribe that she knew they had 4 votes and could clear out a yellow or green tribe member. She knows that her original tribe is safe so yeah Blue. It would BS but worth a try.

What Erika might not know, but could be huge. If Shan and Liana and Tiffany are smart, they see that they need Xander and target Nasser to steal his immunity idol. That way three people in that little alliance have an immunity idol. Plus they have two vote options, a steal a vote and an extra vote. If they draw in Ricard, they have a 6 person alliance that can knock out the rest of the Blue tribe and put them in the drivers seat. We have no clue if Erika has figured out that the stupid phrases added immunity or an advantage to the game. She has no clue who has the advantages because she might not know who went to the secret gatherings.

Any way, Erika is an idiot of she doesn't smash the hour glass. even with incomplete information, she knows she is on the bottom of Blue so there is no need to be protecting her old tribe. She knows that she has a story to tell Blue that makes logical sense if she does turn back time. She knows she has a chance to gain some new allies, maybe temporary but still, by turning back time. And she knows that she would buy herself a guarantee of 3 more days in the game.

 

[JudyObscure]

Ericka wasn't proclaimed an outcast by that vote, just below Naseer in that moment.  For all she knows, if she had been up against anyone else she would have stayed.   I guess it's just hard for me to understand her.  I would never be hoping to go  to tribal, because I would never be that confident that I wouldn't be the one voted off,  and if I was ever on Survivor, a chance to be off by myself for a few days would be an answer to prayers.

[ProfCrash]

20 minutes ago, JudyObscure said:

Ericka wasn't proclaimed an outcast by that vote, just below Naseer in that moment.  For all she knows, if she had been up against anyone else she would have stayed.   I guess it's just hard for me to understand her.  I would never be hoping to go  to tribal, because I would never be that confident that I wouldn't be the one voted off,  and if I was ever on Survivor, a chance to be off by myself for a few days would be an answer to prayers.

Every one of the Blue tribes talking heads about that show that she was the 6th person in that Tribe. She has been on DeShawn and Sydney's boot list since she targeted Sydney three episodes. Clearly she knew that because she told Jeff that she didn't buy the rock, paper, scissors thing. She flat out said that she knew she was at the bottom of her tribe.

So yes, Blue could argue that they had to choose between Nasser (probably the fifth person on that tribe) and Erika but Erika knows that she is at the bottom.

And she is not wrong. There are 3 non-Blue tribe women that Danny and DeShawn could target. Liana, Shan, and Tiffany are all non Blue tribe members that are women. Assuming that they know that Shan has an immunity idol because of the stupid phrase thing, that leaves 2 women they could target. Assuming that they knew Liana had been on her adventure and had gained an advantage of some sort, they still have Tiffany. So why is Danny running around telling people Erika?

Blue should be trying to keep their numbers up for as long as possible. Erika is not likely to win an individual immunity challenge, she is an easy target. Why not wipe out the Green and Yellow and then take out Erika?

So yeah, Erika is at the bottom of Blue and Erika knows it. She has no good reason to trust her old tribe mates.

 

[blackwing]

2 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Potential TBT pros:

It's a big move and will get talked about. It will be on her Survivor resume, hyped as a game changer, etc.

It gets her safety for a week, which sometimes is all you can ask for. 

It's clearly what production wants her to do, and it's probably better to not disappoint production.

It will potentially earn her the gratitude of the five players that she saves from Tribal and the six of them can form an alliance that could take her deep in the game. 

Potential TBT cons:

It also earns her the likely undying hatred of the five players who won immunity only to have her strip it from them, They will likely conspire to get her out at the earliest opportunity, and they almost certainly won't vote to give her a million dollars if she somehow makes it that far.

She hurts three of the players from her former tribe (Danny, DeShawn, Naseer). Unbeknownst to Erika, two of those three of the Blue Tribe were eager enough to get rid of her that they tried throwing a challenge to do so and the only reason the third didn't was because he realized throwing a challenge is generally a bad strategy. So Naseer had no problem with kicking Erika off. But in any case, alienating three members of your tribe when you've been forced to be two days behind everyone else in bonding with the players from other tribes doesn't seem like the best strategy.

Erika knows full well that she is on the bottom of the blue tribe.  Blue tribe members are 4 of the 6 on the current "winning" half.  If she decides to compete for immunity and loses, then she is almost certainly out.  Danny, Deshawn and Sydney all want her out ASAP.

There is no con with earning the hatred of Danny, Deshawn and Sydney because they already want her out.  Naseer will go along with them because he seems to have a Sandra "anybody but me" strategy with the way he mentions names, as long as he isn't the one causing problems and isn't the target, he doesn't care who goes.  I think Evvie is a strategist and she should respect the game play.  I'm not sure where Evvie stands at this moment... I think she thinks she is strong with Yellow but at this point I think Lianna would choose the Black Alliance over Yellow.

Tiffany seems to be suspicious of both Lianna and Evvie and I think she may think of Xander as her most trustworthy ally.  Heather is a non-entity who is probably just happy to still be there.

I think Erika's best move is clearly to smash the hourglass and then try and get something going with Xander, Tiffany, Evvie and Heather.  I think they should target Ricard.

If Lianna gets her way, I feel like Lianna will steal Naseer's immunity and try and get her alliance to vote him out.  It will be interesting to see whether Danny/Deshawn or Lianna/Shan have more power in their alliance.  I'm thinking it's Lianna and Shan, but I am curious to see what happens.

Edited October 29, 2021 by blackwing

[bankerchick]

 

14 hours ago, Valerie said:

I like Erika and I don't get where all the hate is coming from.

If she uses the word 'like' in conversation as much as she uses it in confessionals, I'd vote her out just for that.  

Edited October 29, 2021 by bankerchick

[iMonrey]

Quote

Erika can "Turn Back Time".  First off, not really.  Turning back time would mean that the food comes out of those people's stomachs and into the stomachs of the others.  It's basically a Reversal of Fortune.  Did Jeffy imagine Cher popping up on the island to warble one of her signature tunes?  Does he hate Jeremy Irons and Glenn Close or didn't think they would want a trip to Fiji?

Agreed, it's a stupid and wholly inaccurate name for this twist. 

Quote

Quote

If, by chance, the alliance of black players manage to hold it together and vote out everyone else, just like they did on Big Brother, CBS is going to have to have a problem on their hands. 

They let the white people do it.

Heh, fair point. However, people have long complained that the black players are often the first ones voted out, and reality shows in general have been accused of tokenism in casting since their inception. CBS, in particular, is trying to address this issue by casting more people of color. What may be an unexpected consequence, however, is this possible race vs. race thing that seems to be popping up in both BB and Survivor. Future players are going to react accordingly, and things could just get uglier. It's not a given, but it's certainly a possibility.

[PaperTree]

13 hours ago, ZeeEnnui said:

100%! I've disliked both Ricard and Shan since day one, but credit where its due, Ricard knows how to play the game. What can I say, I'm a sucker for a logical villain. 

"If you're with me, then you should trust me." Gurl, Ricard has met you and your lame-ass villain soundtrack. The producers can give Shan the winner edit all they want, but she's way too high-strung and emotionally immature to be a truly good strategic player. She lucked out because her teammates put the "G" in gullible. Other tribes with stronger players....not so much. 

Oh yay, more twists. Stop threatening us with an annoying time, Jeffy. Please stop. I'm serious, STOP. 

"I really, really believe that this is the hardest season of Survivor." Okay, I want to know how much the producers are paying contestants to say this each episode. It's not harder, it's just hella confusing. You basically need a doctorate in Probstian bug-fuckery (and a minor in hacky sack) to understand what the hell is going on each episode. 

C'mon, the least the show could've done was leave a volleyball for Erica to befriend. Rude. 

IDGAF about the survivors back stories. Bring back interpersonal drama. If I want to know more about them, I'd fire up Google. 

You may be bruised but your hair still is fabulous, Xander! Props for "mergatory"! Count me among those who doesn't understand the Xander sized chip on Liana's shoulder. For all her talk, she's not a particularly good game player, and without Xander's bony shoulders none of their team would have made it over the platform. But then again, my head is too full of butterflies, broccoli and whatever other bullshit we have to remember for this season, and forgot about Xander kicking sand in Liana's face. 

If Erika smashes that glass, and Jeff doesn't immediately start blasting Cher then I'm done ;)

4 million LOLs.  Just great!

[Chicago Redshirt]

2 hours ago, blackwing said:

Erika knows full well that she is on the bottom of the blue tribe.  Blue tribe members are 4 of the 6 on the current "winning" half.  If she decides to compete for immunity and loses, then she is almost certainly out.  Danny, Deshawn and Sydney all want her out ASAP.

There is no con with earning the hatred of Danny, Deshawn and Sydney because they already want her out.  Naseer will go along with them because he seems to have a Sandra "anybody but me" strategy with the way he mentions names, as long as he isn't the one causing problems and isn't the target, he doesn't care who goes.  I think Evvie is a strategist and she should respect the game play.  I'm not sure where Evvie stands at this moment... I think she thinks she is strong with Yellow but at this point I think Lianna would choose the Black Alliance over Yellow.

Tiffany seems to be suspicious of both Lianna and Evvie and I think she may think of Xander as her most trustworthy ally.  Heather is a non-entity who is probably just happy to still be there.

I think Erika's best move is clearly to smash the hourglass and then try and get something going with Xander, Tiffany, Evvie and Heather.  I think they should target Ricard.

If Lianna gets her way, I feel like Lianna will steal Naseer's immunity and try and get her alliance to vote him out.  It will be interesting to see whether Danny/Deshawn or Lianna/Shan have more power in their alliance.  I'm thinking it's Lianna and Shan, but I am curious to see what happens.

Erika knows she's at the bottom of the Blue Tribe, yes. But that doesn't mean that she would be the next to go among the 12 remaining players. Being at the bottom of a potentially controlling alliance is not a bad place to be.

We have information she doesn't (that Danny and DeShawn wanted her gone badly enough to throw a challenge, and were contemplating throwing a second challenge, and that Danny is really scared about women ganging up on men), all of which makes it more likely than it should be that she would go at the next tribal.

Under normal circumstances under the status quo, she could hope for the Blue Strong strategy and a finish around 6, give or take. She might be able to make some moves or win clutch immunities to finish better, or she might be the victim of a blindside slightly earlier.

If she does TBT, my prediction is that she will get booted somewhere in the area of 9-11. But given the multitude of advantages and twists flying around, I suppose that prediction has to have a huge asterisk by it.    

I think there's a difference between how much Danny and DeShawn and Sydney wanted Erika out before, and how much they would want her out if she TBT. I presume Sydney only wants her out because she's an easy vote and because they rightfully fear that she might come back from exile with some advantage. We haven't been shown much as to why exactly Danny/DeShawn have wanted her out other than fear that women will take over the game and maybe camp contributions. To some extent that changes post-merge. Players have to think about eliminating threats to their individual games as opposed to keeping their tribes strong to avoid TC. Nothing shown so far suggests Erika is a potential challenge monster, or has a better-than-average shot at winning jury votes. 

[Lantern7]

This is Erik Reichenbach's takes on the latest episode. This would be awesome if it actually happened.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Lantern7 said:

This is Erik Reichenbach's takes on the latest episode. This would be awesome if it actually happened.

 

That kind of feels like a Twilight Zone episode.

[Lantern7]

9 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

That kind of feels like a Twilight Zone episode.

“He kept shoving advantages in my face. So I turned him into a tired old Jeff-In-The-Box!” “You did a good thing, Erika.”

Thinking about it, I don’t think a device should give a player that much power. I mean, “Knowledge Is Power” can affect the game, but it doesn’t completely flip the game board. And I can’t see any outcome where a group of players doesn’t target Erika for what she does or doesn’t do. Does that make sense?

[princelina]

 

On 10/27/2021 at 11:11 PM, ByaNose said:

 Also, who is this blonde person named, Heather? Is she knew? Was she part of the twist? Asking for a friend. 

Haha she's the older lady who has sat out most of the challenges 😄. (For those who used to angrily wonder why older women are chosen first.  I'm an older woman and I get it 😄 )

On 10/28/2021 at 1:54 PM, Haleth said:

WRT Erica becoming the hero if she smashes the hourglass, how many times have we seen someone do something “heroic” for the good of others (give up a reward for example) only to be one that gets voted out that night?  I wouldn’t trust the unmerged 5 to remember anything at Tribal. She’s a target no matter what she does. 

Exactly.  On the other hand - everyone understands that if she smashes it she's giving herself immunity - some players get self-righteously angry when others don't play their game; many get it.  If I were her that's the only excuse I would offer '- "I needed immunity."  Then work it out after that.

On 10/28/2021 at 5:01 PM, blackwing said:

I agree that when Shan talked about an alliance of "People of Colour" she only meant "Black people".  Somehow she seems to think that by calling it an alliance of "People of colour" that it makes it more understandable than if she had said "We want someone who is black to win".  Erika, Naseer, and Ricard are also "people of colour" / racial minorities and yet they didn't get included in this alliance.

Shan's in it to win it and this is the opportunity that presented itself.  I remember BRob saying, when his group were bonding over being Christian I believe - "I don't care if they're bonding over love of Oreos - I don't want them bonding over anything!"  We shall see if this alliance lasts - one way out of it for any of them would be to later ally with a left out "person of color" and justify it that way 😄

My main beef with Shan is her stupid "song" that production has indulged - but I thought her gameplay was bad tonight (or possibly last week).  She gave Ricard that idol or advantage when she thought she might be voted out, with the agreement when she returned he would give it back.  So she should have taken it back immediately, per their agreement.  To let it lag and then demand it back right before TC puts her in a weaker position.  

Looking forward to next week!!

 

 

[Fretful]

If Erica turns back time (as she's likely to do), that it makes for an interesting choice at tribal.  Danny has noted (correctly) that men seem to have been targeted so far.  He realizes that they have to start voting out women to balance that out.   That leaves Evvie and Sydney. 

And with that the prisoner's dilemma  advantage might actually come into play.  DeShawn has tribe loyalty to Sydney, but has also promised to try to protect Evvie for giving him the extra vote.  

Lianna is in a tight alliance with Evvie, but also the African American Alliance. If she's smart, she'll  convince them to vote Sydney.  That way, she can pivot between  that and the women's alliance.  

So it's:

Danny, Deshawn, Lianna, Shan, Tiffany, Evvie, and Xander voting Sydney

(Ricard will probably go wherever  Shan goes)

Heather, Erica, Naseer, Sydney,  vote for Evvie.

Unless Naseer plays his idol for Sydney,  Then would Xander sacrifice his for Evvie?

Anyway, that's how it seems to me.  It's probably completely wrong, which is why I would probably be the first boot if I ever played Survivor  (also, I'm old and bossy)

 

 

 

 

[Blissfool]

I'm curious as to how you play rock, paper, scissors in an effort to select a non-player in said game. 

[SVNBob]

1 hour ago, Fretful said:

Lianna is in a tight alliance with Evvie, but also the African American Alliance. If she's smart, she'll  convince them to vote Sydney.  That way, she can pivot between  that and the women's alliance.  

Or she can use her advantage to take either Naseer's or Xander's idol and then play it for Evvie.

1 minute ago, Blissfool said:

I'm curious as to how you play rock, paper, scissors in an effort to select a non-player in said game. 

Two players, each representing one of the non-players.  Winner stays, loser goes.

Not that that's what they did.

[Nashville]

3 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Two players, each representing one of the non-players.  Winner stays, loser goes And then they pick Nasser to stay because Erika is who they want exiled.

FTFY

[SVNBob]

Yes, that's what actually happened, minus the game of Rock Paper Scissors.

What I said was the hypothetical of how actually to do what they said they did.

[Chicago Redshirt]

23 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

Every one of the Blue tribes talking heads about that show that she was the 6th person in that Tribe. She has been on DeShawn and Sydney's boot list since she targeted Sydney three episodes. Clearly she knew that because she told Jeff that she didn't buy the rock, paper, scissors thing. She flat out said that she knew she was at the bottom of her tribe.

So yes, Blue could argue that they had to choose between Nasser (probably the fifth person on that tribe) and Erika but Erika knows that she is at the bottom.

And she is not wrong. There are 3 non-Blue tribe women that Danny and DeShawn could target. Liana, Shan, and Tiffany are all non Blue tribe members that are women. Assuming that they know that Shan has an immunity idol because of the stupid phrase thing, that leaves 2 women they could target. Assuming that they knew Liana had been on her adventure and had gained an advantage of some sort, they still have Tiffany. So why is Danny running around telling people Erika?

Blue should be trying to keep their numbers up for as long as possible. Erika is not likely to win an individual immunity challenge, she is an easy target. Why not wipe out the Green and Yellow and then take out Erika?

So yeah, Erika is at the bottom of Blue and Erika knows it. She has no good reason to trust her old tribe mates.

 

The  good reason she has to trust her old tribe mates is that it's in their self-interest to go Blue Strong for as long as possible, as you acknowledged. If they let the Green/Yellow teams vote off a Blue, then the Green/Yellow folks can use their 6-5 advantage to start picking off Blues.

The second reason may not be "good," but it's a reason: she doesn't have much in the way of alternatives. Having been exiled, she has missed out on the chance to bond with any Green/Yellow players. It would take a lot of faith in her persuasive abilities to think that she is going to be better at forming an alliance with enough Green/Yellow players in the short time that she's back to keep her safe even in the short term if she thinks she is a potential target, which she has to. And doing so would mean going against the Blue Strong strategy that is probably her best option at this point. 

[ByaNose]

I will say I would like to to know why Luvu hates Erika so much. They must be really leaving a lot of their tribe life on the cutting room floor because I don’t understand it. Of course, it could be just the matter of “anyone but them” attitude. I guess we’ll have to wait for the exit interviews for a clearer picture. Also, next week probably won’t help her either way from being on the short list on getting voted out. Time will tell.

[peachmangosteen]

Didn't it stem from her going to DeShawn about booting Sydney?

[ByaNose]

2 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

Didn't it stem from her going to DeShawn about booting Sydney?

Um, you might be right. I had forgotten that. At least, I do recall Sydney finding out about it and not being happy about it. It only takes one thing to make you stand out and that might have been it. It was so minor (unless you’re Sydney) that I had forgot all about it. Thanks for reminding me.

[Porkchop]

I hate it when a new twist changes a winner into a loser through no fault of their own. No fair! Twists should make sense and not punish someone. Jeff should design a new game show, and leave Survivor as it was! 

[ProfCrash]

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

The  good reason she has to trust her old tribe mates is that it's in their self-interest to go Blue Strong for as long as possible, as you acknowledged. If they let the Green/Yellow teams vote off a Blue, then the Green/Yellow folks can use their 6-5 advantage to start picking off Blues.

The second reason may not be "good," but it's a reason: she doesn't have much in the way of alternatives. Having been exiled, she has missed out on the chance to bond with any Green/Yellow players. It would take a lot of faith in her persuasive abilities to think that she is going to be better at forming an alliance with enough Green/Yellow players in the short time that she's back to keep her safe even in the short term if she thinks she is a potential target, which she has to. And doing so would mean going against the Blue Strong strategy that is probably her best option at this point. 

Except that means trusting that they are Blue strong and she has good reason to not believe that they are. DeShawn flat out said that there were huge cracks in Blue and they would be lucky to get through one vote as a group. Do you really think that DeShawn is the only one to notice that?

Looking at Erikas body language and listening to her words tells me that she knows she is at the bottom of Blue. She doesn’t need to know that Danny and DeShawn have already said that they should vote her out at tribal to know that Danny and DeShawn are discussing voting her out. 

She turns back time and says that she knows Blue is going to remain strong so the four that are now having to battle for immunity will be safe while keeping herself safe. Yeah Blue. 

[Chicago Redshirt]

2 minutes ago, ProfCrash said:

Except that means trusting that they are Blue strong and she has good reason to not believe that they are. DeShawn flat out said that there were huge cracks in Blue and they would be lucky to get through one vote as a group. Do you really think that DeShawn is the only one to notice that?

Looking at Erikas body language and listening to her words tells me that she knows she is at the bottom of Blue. She doesn’t need to know that Danny and DeShawn have already said that they should vote her out at tribal to know that Danny and DeShawn are discussing voting her out. 

She turns back time and says that she knows Blue is going to remain strong so the four that are now having to battle for immunity will be safe while keeping herself safe. Yeah Blue. 

I don't think that we have been shown anything to support the notion that Erika would have any first-hand reason to think that they would not start off Blue strong. Excluding all the confessionals and the times when it was other members of the Blue tribe talking outside her presence, I at least can't remember anything like that. 

And again, being at the bottom of Blue is a very different thing than being a main target for elimination with a Blue plurality. 

If she turns back time, she can forget about Blue being strong, because there's a good chance that a) one of the four at-risk Blue players will be voted off, thus setting the remainder of Blue to be picked off b) even if all four survive Tribal, they will not forgive what they perceive as a betrayal and get rid of her as soon as possible. Her only chance is if she feels like she can ingratiate herself enough to Yellow/Green and if she goats her way to the F3. 

[Chicago Redshirt]

10 hours ago, Fretful said:

If Erica turns back time (as she's likely to do), that it makes for an interesting choice at tribal.  Danny has noted (correctly) that men seem to have been targeted so far.  He realizes that they have to start voting out women to balance that out.   That leaves Evvie and Sydney. 

And with that the prisoner's dilemma  advantage might actually come into play.  DeShawn has tribe loyalty to Sydney, but has also promised to try to protect Evvie for giving him the extra vote.  

Lianna is in a tight alliance with Evvie, but also the African American Alliance. If she's smart, she'll  convince them to vote Sydney.  That way, she can pivot between  that and the women's alliance.  

So it's:

Danny, Deshawn, Lianna, Shan, Tiffany, Evvie, and Xander voting Sydney

(Ricard will probably go wherever  Shan goes)

Heather, Erica, Naseer, Sydney,  vote for Evvie.

Unless Naseer plays his idol for Sydney,  Then would Xander sacrifice his for Evvie?

Anyway, that's how it seems to me.  It's probably completely wrong, which is why I would probably be the first boot if I ever played Survivor  (also, I'm old and bossy)

It is hard to predict what would happen, especially because any of the six hypothetically could get individual immunity.

But it seems like to me that if TBT, then it most likely would be one of the non-Blue tribe members, Evvie and Ricard, that would be most at risk. 

Ricard is potentially the best target as he has likely only Shan as an ally and he's very apparently untrustworthy and a schemer. But this might play into the fear Danny has about men being picked off.

I think it is harder to marshal all the non-Blue tribe members to target a Blue tribe member. So if my prediction if TBT, the likelihood of votes is Evvie, Ricard, Sydney, Naseer, DeShawn, Danny. 

If Erika doesn't TBT, I think she is likely safe for the week, because Blue Strong and and as a bread crumb for not TBT. But it's a lot harder to predict because so many people have idols/advantages they could play. The question for each of the idol-holders is: do I assert it now and make sure I stay in the game longer, save it for a more stressful situation, or what? Or on the flipside, do I risk choosing someone who might have immunity and undoing all the plans?

My prediction for non-TBT would be: Tiffany, Erika, Heather, Xander, liana, Shan.

It seems like the only safe prediction is that there are probably a couple wild tribal councils in the near future. Hopefully the next one will be worth the wait. 

[Hera]

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

If Erika doesn't TBT, I think she is likely safe for the week, because Blue Strong and and as a bread crumb for not TBT.

No she wouldn't be. Danny and Deshawn have already killed the idea of Blue Strong. They made it clear to the others at the merge camp that Luvu are not united and they have already thrown Erika's name out there as the next boot. There is no way that this will be kept from Erika because it is in the best interests of all the non-Blues to stoke division among that group of six. Someone will tell her.

Even if the above weren't true, Blue Strong alone wouldn't get the job done because they still need a non-Blue to vote with them. That is a much harder pitch than trying to get a Blue to defect (especially this season). There is no reason to believe that the people from Yellow and Green would be more loyal to each other than they would be to someone who flipped from Blue, so Erika wouldn't necessarily be at the bottom of that new alliance. A pitch for Blue Strong, on the other hand, is, "Join us and we promise you're not 7th," which invites the response, "Prove it then. Vote out one of your own first and then we can be a majority of 6 on a tribe of 11 instead a majority of 7 on a tribe of 12."

Really, the question for Erika isn't whether she should break the hourglass (she definitely should), but how she navigates the rest of the game without becoming the goat.

Edited October 30, 2021 by Hera

[Gummo]

On 10/29/2021 at 8:39 AM, JudyObscure said:

I seem to remember seasons with disabled people, Muslims, Christians, Little People, Native Americans, and truly old people. I think CBS has forgotten that diverse means varied, not dark skinned.

So much This.

[Blissfool]

11 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Two players, each representing one of the non-players.  Winner stays, loser goes.

Not that that's what they did.

Yeah I guess that makes sense. Next question...was it one round or best 2 out of 3? 😁

[sharkerbaby]

On 10/28/2021 at 10:28 PM, millennium said:

It seems possible the show may someday reach a point where white players may feel a need to band together like that.  I read earlier today that CBS has committed to having 50% people of color on the casts of all of its reality shows going forward.    If we see several seasons of reality shows where people of color ally on the basis of race, is it perhaps inevitable that white players will start to do the same?   The prospect seems sadly ironic, given that these changes to the shows are supposed to be about promoting diversity and inclusivity. 

CBS made that announcement quite some time ago and anyone who didn't foresee this outcome was not thinking past the wokeness of this approach or were too busy tripping all over themselves to trumpet CBS' boldness and bravery.  As to the bolded, that point was made upthread but was shot down as essentially an argument without merit in that the opposite has been the way of the white person from the beginning.  Perhaps the term used in the earlier post for this potential consequence was too triggering.

I'm hoping most of this is due to the novelty of it all and that future contestants, operating as typical, rational and enlightened human beings, rise above it all and relegate skin color to the not-worth-considering column when seeking and assessing potential allies.

[sharkerbaby]

40 minutes ago, Blissfool said:

Yeah I guess that makes sense. Next question...was it one round or best 2 out of 3? 😁

The thing that bugs me about the rock, paper scissors non-decision making technique (besides the fact that, as was revealed in the confessional, that it didn't actually happen) wouldn't it have been an extremely obvious lie?   With everyone watching, especially Naseer and Erika, how could they have actually played the game without everyone seeing?  I suppose they could have held their hands right up against their bodies but even then every decision huddle I've ever seen on Survivor has been a loosely formed wobbly circle not a compact shoulder to shoulder formation.

[Chicago Redshirt]

4 minutes ago, sharkerbaby said:

CBS made that announcement quite some time ago and anyone who didn't foresee this outcome was not thinking past the wokeness of this approach or were too busy tripping all over themselves to trumpet CBS' boldness and bravery.  As to the bolded, that point was made upthread but was shot down as essentially an argument without merit in that the opposite has been the way of the white person from the beginning.  Perhaps the term used in the earlier post for this potential consequence was too triggering.

I'm hoping most of this is due to the novelty of it all and that future contestants, operating as typical, rational and enlightened human beings, rise above it all and relegate skin color to the not-worth-considering column when seeking and assessing potential allies.

Skin color is no more rational or irrational a basis to use as an item to seek and assess potential allies or enemies than gender, religion, region of the country, profession or any of the other criteria we have seen Survivors base alliances on in the past and no doubt see them base alliances in the future.

It's just more potentiallly distasteful to hear people say "we whites/blacks should stick together" than it is to hear people say "we women/men should stick together" or "we cops should stick together" or the like. 

[Fretful]

13 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Or she can use her advantage to take either Naseer's or Xander's idol and then play it for Evvie.

She can still take  one of those later, and use it for herself. 

[WearyTraveler]

5 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

Didn't it stem from her going to DeShawn about booting Sydney?

That, and then she also pitched voting out Daniel to DeShawn (sp?). I think she pitched it to the same person too, so, they see her as someone who started to stir the pot when there was no need yet for pot-stirring, as they were winning every challenge at the time

[peachmangosteen]

1 hour ago, WearyTraveler said:

That, and then she also pitched voting out Daniel to DeShawn (sp?). I think she pitched it to the same person too, so, they see her as someone who started to stir the pot when there was no need yet for pot-stirring, as they were winning every challenge at the time

Wow, I don't remember her talking to DeShawn about booting Danny. That is a big mistake and I understand more now why they're so against her. When did she do that? Like what episode?

[ProfCrash]

6 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

I don't think that we have been shown anything to support the notion that Erika would have any first-hand reason to think that they would not start off Blue strong. Excluding all the confessionals and the times when it was other members of the Blue tribe talking outside her presence, I at least can't remember anything like that. 

And again, being at the bottom of Blue is a very different thing than being a main target for elimination with a Blue plurality. 

If she turns back time, she can forget about Blue being strong, because there's a good chance that a) one of the four at-risk Blue players will be voted off, thus setting the remainder of Blue to be picked off b) even if all four survive Tribal, they will not forgive what they perceive as a betrayal and get rid of her as soon as possible. Her only chance is if she feels like she can ingratiate herself enough to Yellow/Green and if she goats her way to the F3. 

She doesn’t know but we do that Blue is targeting her to be voted out. Danny and DeShawn have already said they want to vote her out this tribal.

 

[WearyTraveler]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

Wow, I don't remember her talking to DeShawn about booting Danny. That is a big mistake and I understand more now why they're so against her. When did she do that? Like what episode?

I binged the first 6 episodes, so I am not sure, 3 or 4, maybe?

Perhaps searching the PTV recaps for Erika's name will yield you an answer.

[Chicago Redshirt]

2 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

She doesn’t know but we do that Blue is targeting her to be voted out. Danny and DeShawn have already said they want to vote her out this tribal.

 

I've been trying to evaluate what would make the most sense for Erika to do given the information she reasonably has.

Given that there's a big target on Erika's back and that she's already alienated most of her Blue tribemates (and Blue tribe is irrationally not willing to consider Blue Strong), she might as well TBT and attempt to bolster her position with the non-blue players.

But in the absence of knowing those key facts, it doesn't seem as cut-and-dried a decision for Erika to TBT or to not TBT. 

[watchingtvaddict]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

I've been trying to evaluate what would make the most sense for Erika to do given the information she reasonably has.

Given that there's a big target on Erika's back and that she's already alienated most of her Blue tribemates (and Blue tribe is irrationally not willing to consider Blue Strong), she might as well TBT and attempt to bolster her position with the non-blue players.

But in the absence of knowing those key facts, it doesn't seem as cut-and-dried a decision for Erika to TBT or to not TBT. 

All the Survivor players this season appear to be super savvy. When Probst arrived on exile island, Erika mentioned she hoped she would receive some sort of advantage (they probably didn't air footage of her looking for an advantage before Probst arrived). The players back at camp are planning to vote Erika out because they assume she'll return with an advantage. 

Survivor currently loves having 50 million advantages in play at any given moment so even if she mentions the TBT advantage, players might assume she is withholding information and she also has a hidden immunity idol. 

In my opinion, she has no choice but to break the hourglass. 

 

[Leeds]

Granted, Survivor has become so boring that I barely pay attention, but what's The Cookout?

Edited October 31, 2021 by Leeds

[Chicago Redshirt]

11 hours ago, watchingtvaddict said:

All the Survivor players this season appear to be super savvy. When Probst arrived on exile island, Erika mentioned she hoped she would receive some sort of advantage (they probably didn't air footage of her looking for an advantage before Probst arrived). The players back at camp are planning to vote Erika out because they assume she'll return with an advantage. 

Survivor currently loves having 50 million advantages in play at any given moment so even if she mentions the TBT advantage, players might assume she is withholding information and she also has a hidden immunity idol. 

In my opinion, she has no choice but to break the hourglass. 

 

ETA: I would say that a couple of the eliminated players, particularly J.D. and Genie, were clueless and made moves that an average Survivor contestant/viewer would know were bad. Of the ones remaining in the game, we have pretty much no information as to how savvy Heather might be, and I would hesitate before calling Tiffany "savvy." But in any event...

I think by definition they will have to have an announcement about the TBT challenge well before Tribal Council, because which way she chooses will dictate who competes for individual immunity.

It seems unlikely that the producers would convey two sets of advantages on Erika for one trip to exile, so that seems like a non-factor. As idol/advantage-happy as the season has been, I tend to doubt that there has been or would be a season with four or more active hidden immunity idols in the game at the same time. 

Even assuming that Erika might have been given a second advantage, it probably makes more sense to vote someone else who you have no reason to think that they might have an idol/advantage, such as Heather or Tiffany,

It would be worth keeping Tiffany around because there's just such a low chance she would be voted to win a million. 

10 hours ago, Leeds said:

Granted, Survivor has become so boring that I barely pay attention, but what's The Cookout?

The Cookout was something that happened on Big Brother's latest season. Apparently, all six Black players created an alliance that resulted in the show's first Black winner. Now apparently there's concern that the trend of diversifying reality shows might mean that Survivor might have minority contestants do the same thing (though technically this season of Survivor filmed before the Cookout season of Big Brother).

Edited October 31, 2021 by Chicago Redshirt

[Jobiska]

On 10/28/2021 at 5:22 PM, bunnyface said:

I dunno.  On the one hand, I hope Erika doesn't smash the hour glass.  I feel like it's taking away a fair-and-square win. 

Taking away a win, yes, but a win that was hugely influenced by the luck of the draw; two drew gray rocks including Erika and didn't even get a chance to play; and of the teams that played, one consisted of four people who hadn't eaten in days plus Heather, who has already proven herself to not be very athletic (is short and can't even step high enough to get over ropes in time to catch a rolling ball--so of course she doesn't have leverage to push the ball; height to scale the ball to either get the keys or maximally use its advantage to climb; or scale that board) vs a majority of people who had been eating which also included one of the most athletic, strong, and tall people there.  You could tell that Danny serving as human ladder took less of a toll on him than Xander doing the same.  People were on him for a shorter time, for one.  There was plenty of footage of Evvie sprawled across Xander in her rainbow tighty-stripeys!  :-D  

And in some ways it will make the game going forward squarer and fairer if those who didn't eat get a chance to feast.  

Re Shan/Ricard:  Hard to parse during her irrational arguing, but wasn't she saying "you promised to give it back and you didn't?" when she herself had promised to not ask for it back till the next day?  So she was the one going back on her promise?  Argh!  

Surprised there weren't 77 weird advantages hidden at the merge feast. 

[Hera]

10 minutes ago, Jobiska said:

Taking away a win, yes, but a win that was hugely influenced by the luck of the draw; two drew gray rocks including Erika and didn't even get a chance to play; and of the teams that played

This is a really good point. It also doesn't take away the fact that the people who won the challenge got to have a feast, so they still got a reward for winning, even if it wasn't the one they were promised.

That said, I don't love this twist because fundamentally, I don't think immunity from the vote should be something that can be taken away by another player. That completely goes against what it's meant to have immunity in the past. But my quarrel is with the producers for introducing the change, not with Erika for taking advantage of it (if she does).

[Leeds]

 

On 10/30/2021 at 11:23 AM, dleighg said:

 get the Bravo app and stream to your heart's content! I watch almost all "live" shows on my AppleTV after the fact, as I don't stay up late.

I don't stay up late either but I don't/won't pay for anything Apple and I have no idea what Roku is.  Is that wrong of me?

Edited November 1, 2021 by Leeds

[watchingtvaddict]

23 hours ago, Jobiska said:

Taking away a win, yes, but a win that was hugely influenced by the luck of the draw; two drew gray rocks including Erika and didn't even get a chance to play; and of the teams that played, one consisted of four people who hadn't eaten in days plus 

>snip< 

Surprised there weren't 77 weird advantages hidden at the merge feast. 

If we were playing regular flavor Survivor, I agree taking immunity away and giving it to another team would be awful BUT, Jeff set it all up.... we knew before the challenge started there was going to be a twist and the person chosen for Exile would be making an important decision. The players weren't informed of the twist but it is part of the challenge. 

There is always a chance we discover advantages were at the merge feast and we will be treated to the fact via flashback. 

Edited November 1, 2021 by watchingtvaddict
discovery changed to fact