2019 Awards Season

[AimingforYoko]

10 minutes ago, BetterButter said:

Oscar Nominations 2019: The Complete List

Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War over Bradley Cooper in Best Director is the biggest shocker for me.

[Simon Boccanegra]

I'm not exactly shocked, but I'm bummed that Ethan Hawke failed to make the cut. First Reformed may have been the best performance of his career (even including his very fine work with Richard Linklater in the Before films and Boyhood). At least the movie got the sop of an Original Screenplay nomination. 

Cooper as director not being nominated is surprising. Not unpleasantly so to me, because I'm a non-fan of A Star Is Born 2018.  

I guess The Favourite leads nominations overall? 

[AshleyN]

Not one but two acting nominations for Roma! That might be the biggest sign that it should be the Best Picture favourite. Aparicio at least has been talked about as a potential passion pick/dark horse, but I didn't see any talk of de Tavira at all. There's clearly a lot of love for the movie there (although the editing snub is a little weird).

You know, most of the talk about the Academy's push to diversify it's ranks the last couple years has focused on boosting the number of women and minorities, but today's nominations might be a sign that there hasn't been enough focus on the huge influx of international members. I know there was a lot of talk among the pundits of Pawlikowski possibly sneaking into Best Director, but I really didn't think they'd nominate two foreign language films there. Has that ever happened before?

Ouch at that Bradley Cooper snub. There have been a lot of early Oscar favourites that faded, or crashed and burned along the way, but the way that A Star is Born, with it's combination of fantastic box office and strong critical response, just completely failed to take off is so strange to me.

Edited January 22, 2019 by AshleyN

[Slade347]

The Favourite and Roma led the way with 10 nominations each. I think Vice did vey well, Green Book, maybe not so much. 

Won't You Be My Neighbor not getting a Best Documentary nomination stings.

Edited January 22, 2019 by Slade347

[Simon Boccanegra]

1 minute ago, AshleyN said:

I really didn't think they'd nominate two foreign language films [in the Best Director category]. Has that ever happened before?

Yes. In 1977 (thus, for 1976), Ingmar Bergman and Lina Wertmüller were nominated for Face to Face (Swedish) and Seven Beauties (Italian) respectively. Wertmüller became the first female Best Director nominee. They both lost to John G. Avildsen (Rocky). 

[Shannon L.]

Wow, this is a first for me.  Of the 8 nominated films, I've seen and really enjoyed 5 of them and have been anxiously waiting for the day that I can see two others.  I hate to say it, because I'm sure it's artistically beautiful, but everything I've seen and heard about Roma tells that it's the kind of film that I just won't get into.  However, since this is such a big "I have to see it!/I've seen it and loved it!" movie year for me, I'll probably fulfill my dream of getting the AMC, two day, Oscar showcase tickets and spend all weekend at the theater watching them on the big screen.  Unfortunately, for those of you who have come to count on my track record of "It's always one of the films I didn't see that wins the Best Picture award", I won't be able to help you this year  :) 

It didn't even occur to me until you mentioned it, but yeah, Bradley Cooper being left out of Best Director is a surprise. 

[vibeology]

The fact that A Star is Born is slowing down is sad because I did enjoy it but I do hope that opens the door for Glenn Close to win her much-deserved-based-on-this-one-performance-but-also-totally-overdue-based-on-past-performances Oscar for The Wife!

My biggest surprises for me are seeing Timothee snubbed for a strong performance in a weak movie, seeing Beale Street not get a Best Picture nomination (because it just is one of the best pictures of the year), seeing Emily Blunt snubbed after people really thought she'd have a shot with Mary Poppins, and having Adam Driver get a nom while shutting out John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman. That's about white.

[Blergh]

Yeah, I'm a bit bummed that Mr. Cooper didn't get a Best Director nom for his debut effort (and it can't have been easy to supervise every single aspect of the film WHILE playing someone self-destructing and out of control). However; I'm glad he DID get noms for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay because he REALLY poured his guts into this! 

[ruby24]

2 hours ago, AshleyN said:

Not one but two acting nominations for Roma! That might be the biggest sign that it should be the Best Picture favourite. Aparicio at least has been talked about as a potential passion pick/dark horse, but I didn't see any talk of de Tavira at all. There's clearly a lot of love for the movie there (although the editing snub is a little weird).

You know, most of the talk about the Academy's push to diversify it's ranks the last couple years has focused on boosting the number of women and minorities, but today's nominations might be a sign that there hasn't been enough focus on the huge influx of international members. I know there was a lot of talk among the pundits of Pawlikowski possibly sneaking into Best Director, but I really didn't think they'd nominate two foreign language films there. Has that ever happened before?

Ouch at that Bradley Cooper snub. There have been a lot of early Oscar favourites that faded, or crashed and burned along the way, but the way that A Star is Born, with it's combination of fantastic box office and strong critical response, just completely failed to take off is so strange to me.

 

THIS. Great point! I too think this is having a definite impact. But I kinda like it! Films are made all over the world, they should get more recognition.

After Ben Affleck and Bradley Cooper, I'm starting to think the directors branch no longer likes movie stars turned directors the way they used to (in the old days, guys like Warren Beatty, Robert Redford, Clint Eastwood, Mel Gibson, and Kevin Costner would have no trouble getting directing nominations and even winning when they made big movies- not so much anymore). I wonder if this might help him to gain momentum in Best Actor though- it feels like Christian Bale or Rami Malek have the edge, but I wouldn't mind Cooper winning. I thought he was great (and I didn't like Vice or Bohemian that much, so it's maybe just wishful thinking on my part. The Academy clearly liked Vice a lot- eight nominations. That one I don't get).

I LOVE the acting nominations for Roma! That was my favorite film of the year, I LOVE it and honestly believe it's a masterpiece and one of the great, great movies, so I would have no problem with it winning Best Picture and setting that record for a foreign-language film (and Netflix). But I wouldn't count out Blackkklansman either- it still made it into every important category (Pic, Director, Acting, Screenplay AND editing) and if it were to win SAG this weekend, I think it has a very good chance to sneak through for Picture on a preferential ballot. Plus the love for Spike Lee- I would love to see him make an acceptance speech on Oscar night. He'd give a great one.

Green Book's miss in director lessons its chances, even after winning the PGA, imo. It only got five nominations too. 

Edited January 22, 2019 by ruby24

[thuganomics85]

I actually got to see the nominations live, but I only just got time to post about it!

For me, the biggest disappointment is Won't You Be My Neighbor? getting snubbed for Best Documentary.  Not sure what happened, since it was winning a good amount of the precursors.  Did its fans think it was a shoo-in and voted for other films instead?  Did some in the Academy just find it too sappy and, for a lack of a better word, too simple?  Because I'm just kind of at a loss and majorly disappointed.

Disappointed about Bradley Cooper not getting in for director, but hopefully he'll get more chances.  Then again, I am starting to wonder if the Academy is starting to push away from actors being director.  Then again, they nominated both Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig, so maybe it's more "movie stars" instead of actors in general.

Right now, I'm totally picking Roma to win the big one because it getting acting nominations after mainly being out of it for the rest of the awards, seems to be showing that it has a lot of fans and a lot of momentum going for it.

I'm going to wait and see how the SAGs play out before making any firm prediction for acting.  If Mahershala wins that, then he's going to waltz his way to another trophy.  If I had to pick, I'd go Bale and Close for their respected categories, but it is way too early to call it now.  As for supporting actress, I want to say Regina King, but the lack of a SAG and BAFTA nod (plus, the lack of support for If Beale Street Could Talk) makes me hesitate. 

[UniqBlue69]

Yay, I correctly called the Chalamet snub in my Gold Derby predictions. The supporting actor category tends to skew older and it's difficult to garner a nomination for a film the Academy is lukewarm about unless you're Meryl Streep. I also knew Yaritza would make it in and am kicking myself for not predicting the other Roma actress to make it in. When the 5th slot in supporting actress is wide open, the Academy tends to choose a contender from a movie they've seen and liked (e.g. Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook," Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"), which is why I knew Kidman, Robbie and Blunt were very unlikely. I predicted Foy because I really did think the Academy was gonna show more love to First Man than they did. Oh well.

[VCRTracking]

I've been a fan of his for years. This is so nice to see:

[vb68]

3 hours ago, ruby24 said:

I wonder if this might help him to gain momentum in Best Actor though- it feels like Christian Bale or Rami Malek have the edge, but I wouldn't mind Cooper winning. I thought he was great (and I didn't like Vice or Bohemian that much, so it's maybe just wishful thinking on my part. The Academy clearly liked Vice a lot- eight nominations. That one I don't get).

I wonder about that myself. I think it does give him a chance, especially if he can draw some sympathies like Ben Affleck did years ago with Argo. I'm convinced it help Argo win Best Picture. It certainly didn't hurt. I confess I'd like to see him win...something. I thought ASIB was a tremendous achievement.

 

5 hours ago, Slade347 said:

The Favourite and Roma led the way with 10 nominations each.

All the nominations for The Favourite is why I'm not ready to crown Glenn Close the winner. I doubt The Favourite wins Best Picture, so where does it make it's stand? Probably one of the two actress categories, and supporting actress  will split votes between it's two nominees as we know. I think Olivia Colman could easily upset. 

Edited January 22, 2019 by vb68

[Simon Boccanegra]

I think by the time the ceremony comes around, the "It's her time" sentiment will have long pushed Close across the finish line. Colman has the best shot of the others, but I'd still bet Close. Close is this year's Geraldine Page, the revered actress and eternal also-ran finally getting her due, in part for fear that she might not have another shot. The Wife even matches up with The Trip to Bountiful: a generally well-reviewed "small" movie that is lightly nominated. Bountiful's only other nomination was Adapted Screenplay, in a year with such multi-nominated juggernauts as The Color Purple, Out of Africa, Prizzi's Honor, and Witness. The Wife is nominated only in in Close's category.  

In Page's case, her win was fortunate in retrospect. She died suddenly the following year, only 62. Three of the other nominees in her category, Goldberg, Lange, and Streep, all now have lived longer than she did.

Edited January 22, 2019 by Simon Boccanegra

[Moose135]

3 hours ago, thuganomics85 said:

Disappointed about Bradley Cooper not getting in for director, but hopefully he'll get more chances. 

Same here.  Maybe they thought nominating him for his first directorial job would go to his head. ;-)

[Shannon L.]

It really was a great year for movies (in fact I just read an article about some great movies that weren't nominated at all), so I wouldn't mind if they spread out the awards a little. 

As for Best Actor, man what a competitive field this year!  As I said earlier, I want Rami to will, will be happy if Bradley wins and will understand if Christian wins.  But, I have to give kudos to how good Viggo was in Green Book, too.  I haven't seen the other movie, but I know how good Willem Defoe can be. 

[starri]

Imma say this right now:  I won't be surprised if Into the Spider-Verse wins.

[ruby24]

49 minutes ago, starri said:

Imma say this right now:  I won't be surprised if Into the Spider-Verse wins.

Me neither. In fact, I think it's expected at this point. It's started to pretty much steamroll through all the animated film awards lately.

But notably, the Academy almost always chooses the Disney/Pixar movie for this award. Even in 2014, when How To Train Your Dragon 2 won most of the animated awards (including the Annies), they went with Big Hero 6 (not nearly as good a movie). I think the Disney entry has only lost twice in the whole history of the category- the very first year they had it, Shrek won against Monsters, Inc, and then when Happy Feet beat Cars in 2006.

I hope their bias doesn't lead them to Incredibles 2 this year just because. That was good movie too but Spider-Verse is the first chance they have to actually choose something else for a change (and not just because there's no Disney/Pixar submission).

[starri]

4 minutes ago, ruby24 said:

I think the Disney entry has only lost twice in the whole history of the category- the very first year they had it, Shrek won against Monsters, Inc, and then when Happy Feet beat Cars in 2006.

Spirited Away beat Lilo & Stitch and Treasure Planet, but given that Disney released Spirited Away in the United States, that's probably an asterisk at best.

[kiddo82]

4 hours ago, Simon Boccanegra said:

I think by the time the ceremony comes around, the "It's her time" sentiment will have long pushed Close across the finish line. Colman has the best shot of the others, but I'd still bet Close. Close is this year's Geraldine Page, the revered actress and eternal also-ran finally getting her due, in part for fear that she might not have another shot. The Wife even matches up with The Trip to Bountiful: a generally well-reviewed "small" movie that is lightly nominated. Bountiful's only other nomination was Adapted Screenplay, in a year with such multi-nominated juggernauts as The Color Purple, Out of Africa, Prizzi's Honor, and Witness. The Wife is nominated only in in Close's category.  

In Page's case, her win was fortunate in retrospect. She died suddenly the following year, only 62. Three of the other nominees in her category, Goldberg, Lange, and Streep, all now have lived longer than she did.

Wasn't it 1997 when sentimental (and actual) favorite Lauren Bacall didn't win?  Rooting for Close but these things happen.  The only big miss that bums me out is Emily Blunt's.  I thought she was aces in Mary Poppins and was all but guaranteed a nomination.

[methodwriter85]

Michael Keaton had a hell of a narrative during his Oscar campaign a few years ago (and in a movie that won best picture and director) but Eddie Redmayne aggressively campaigned and got the win, so yeah. I'm rooting for Close but I wouldn't be shocked if Coleman gets it. This does feel like a year that's more up in the air than usual for Best Actress. I remember Francis McDormand, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, and Jennifer Lawerence being pretty much obvious during their respective Oscar winning seasons. The last year things felt up in the air was the 2011/2012 one where the awards were fairly split between Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, and Michelle Williams before Meryl took home the big prize.

Edited January 23, 2019 by methodwriter85

[tennisgurl]

I had my doubts, but I think that Roma might take home the big prize. Its not often that a foreign language movie wins, but it could most certainly happen, and it seems to be gaining more and more momentum. 

I am just super happy that Black Panther got a nomination! Wakanda Forever!

[Browncoat]

I would love it if Isle of Dogs won animated feature, but I know it doesn't stand a chance.

[ruby24]

2 hours ago, tennisgurl said:

I had my doubts, but I think that Roma might take home the big prize. Its not often that a foreign language movie wins, but it could most certainly happen, and it seems to be gaining more and more momentum. 

I am just super happy that Black Panther got a nomination! Wakanda Forever!

It's never happened! This would be a record. 

[kiddo82]

I didn't even know foreign language movies were eligible for best picture until this campaign.

Edited January 23, 2019 by kiddo82

[Bill1978]

In the past a number of foreign language films have been nominated for Best Picture. Off the top of my head I know Life Is Beautiful and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. I think Letters from Iwo Jima was also nominated. And pretty sure Il Postino (The Postman) got a nod.

I'm just super happy Black Panther got a Best Picture nom as it means I don't have to read endless opinion pieces about how it was a shock snub etc.

[AshleyN]

Amour was also nominated for Best Picture a few years back. I believe that was the most recent foreign language nominee before Roma.

Given that lone director nominations are quite rare these days (Pawlikowki is only the second since the Best Picture lineup was expanded, after Bennet Miller) I'm really curious about how close Cold War came to getting in.

[Simon Boccanegra]

9 hours ago, kiddo82 said:

Wasn't it 1997 when sentimental (and actual) favorite Lauren Bacall didn't win?  Rooting for Close but these things happen. 

They do. But Juliette Binoche (whom I love; I recently watched her incredible performance in Three Colours: Blue again) had a lot lining up her way for a takedown. She had a substantial role that pushed the limits of Supporting. Weinstein was waging one of his earliest all-in campaigns for The English Patient. And personal feelings about Bacall around town circa 1996-97 were mixed, to put it charitably. She was a veteran and a Hollywood legend, but a a lot of people hated her. (She did receive the honorary award many years later.) 

So I think Page '86 is a better parallel for Close '19. Not that I'm ever sure of anything when it comes to awards prognosticating.

I will not be surprised if Roma is the night's big winner, and The Favourite (which has the patina of a classy royal prestige picture but is really a venomous, off-kilter movie from the acquired-taste director of Dogtooth and The Lobster) goes home only with, say, Costume Design.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Simon Boccanegra

[galaxygirl76]

I'm stil skeptical about Romas chances because generally the Academy prefers it if everyone stays in their own categories, foreign language or animation. It's time though, I've always felt that the rest of the world got overlooked in favor of US or British movies. For an award that claims to be for the best movies of the year those movies are almost always in English and US made. It's like how whomever wins the Superbowl or World series calls themselves the world champions with only one Canadian team competing with them. 

[Ms Blue Jay]

16 hours ago, tennisgurl said:

I am just super happy that Black Panther got a nomination! Wakanda Forever!

I am so happy about this too.

I was mostly happy.  I feel sorry for the fans of Won't You Be My Neighbour and Paddington(s).  I wish Black Panther got even MORE love - can you believe a black director has never won Best Director and this is Spike Lee's FIRST nomination?  Just wish Ryan Coogler got more love.  Wish they got a Cinematography nomination.

A lot of people thought Spider-Verse should have been nominated for Best Picture.  I take their word on it; I haven't seen such crazed universal acclaim for a movie in forever.

[starri]

4 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

A lot of people thought Spider-Verse should have been nominated for Best Picture.  I take their word on it; I haven't seen such crazed universal acclaim for a movie in forever.

I honestly thought the AMPAS would look at its nomination at Best Animated and say "Okay, nerds, you happy now?" and not bother with anything other than some of the tech awards and Best Song for Black Panther.

For both to do so well is just delightful.  I'm too old to really pull for nominees, but if I'm doing it, it's for Spider-Verse and Regina King.

[Shannon L.]

Earlier I mentioned the AMC Best Picture showcase.  Has anyone ever been to that?  I'm curious about a couple of things.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Shannon L.

[ProudMary]

In a brilliant Twitter thread (13 tweets), Guillermo del Toro gives us an analysis of Roma. As he discusses specific scenes, MAJOR spoilers abound.  Enter at your own risk, but well worth the read.

https://twitter.com/RealGDT/status/1084701184110153729?s=19

[ProudMary]

On 1/14/2019 at 5:19 PM, ProudMary said:

Perhaps not just one winner emerges.  Scenario:   Emily Blunt wins the SAG for Supporting Female Actor for A Quiet Place (consolation prize instead of Best Female Actor in Mary Poppins Returns for which she's also nominated.)  Rachel wins the BAFTA (The Favourite is nominated for 12 BAFTAs, 5 more than any other film!  It's going to win a lot of them.)  Regina could still be the front runner for the Oscar.  We'll have to wait until next Tuesday to be sure she gets the Oscar nomination.  I still think she has a path to the Oscar.

 

On 1/7/2019 at 12:21 AM, ProudMary said:

I think SAG gives the cast award to Black Panther.  I don't see how the depth of that cast can possibly be denied.

I still look at Roma as the front runner for the Oscar.  

Boy, I wish I would have put some money on the longshot SAG predictions I made here a few weeks back!

[NUguy514]

Black Panther was not a long shot at all, to me at least; in fact, I always thought it was the favorite for SAG Cast.  It and Mahershala for Supporting Actor were really the only two categories I was 100% confident on.

[thuganomics85]

Whelp, the SAGs certainly paint an interesting picture!

Quote

FILM NOMINEES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

A Star Is Born

WINNER: Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Crazy Rich Asians

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Emily Blunt — Mary Poppins Returns

WINNER: Glenn Close — The Wife

Olivia Colman — The Favourite 

Lady Gaga — A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy — Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale — Vice

Bradley Cooper — A Star Is Born

WINNER: Rami Malek — Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen — Green Book

John David Washington — BlacKkKlansman

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams — Vice

WINNER: Emily Blunt — A Quiet Place

Margot Robbie — Mary Queen of Scots

Emma Stone — The Favourite

Rachel Weisz — The Favourite

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

WINNER: Mahershala Ali — Green Book 

Timothée Chalamet — Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver — BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott — A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant — Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Avengers: Infinity War

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

WINNER: Black Panther

Mission: Impossible — Fallout

I can definitely admit that I did not predict Rami Malek taking it over Christian Bale.  Barring Bryan Singer's name poisoning everything involved with Bohemian Rhapsody, I have to think it is his now.  Because I can easily seem him taking the BAFTA too, since I know Europe loves Queen/Freddie Mercury even more than the States do.  And with Bale already having a trophy and Vice being almost just as polarizing as Bohemian, I really don't see a way for it to may a comeback (and poor Bradley Cooper just as to accept he's going home empty-handed, it seems.)

Glenn Close is likely got Best Actress locked up, although I am curious about the BAFTA, because I can see Olivia Coleman having "home field" advantage and taking that, so maybe she can find a way to be a contender.

As for the supporting gang, I never want to fully predict anything, but I'm totally 99.9% sure Mahershala Ali is waltzing to his second trophy now, and Emily Blunt winning the SAG means Regina King is probably taking the Oscar, since neither Amy Adams, Rachel Weisz, or Emma Stone won, which could have boosted them as Regina's main competitor.

As for Black Panther winning ensemble: well, I guess I have to listen to the fanboys gripe more about the film being "overrated", even though while I wasn't as wild about it as some, there is no denying that the cast was amazing (I think it might have even been the best acting out of any Marvel film), so I think it is more than deserved.  Not sure if will factor any on its BP chances though.

[kiddo82]

4 minutes ago, thuganomics85 said:

As for the supporting gang, I never want to fully predict anything, but I'm totally 99.9% sure Mahershala Ali is waltzing to his second trophy now, and Emily Blunt winning the SAG means Regina King is probably taking the Oscar, since neither Amy Adams, Rachel Weisz, or Emma Stone won, which could have boosted them as Regina's main competitor.

Agree.  As soon as Blunt won my initial reaction was that that was the best thing that could have happened to Regina King.  And good for Blunt as well.  If it was a consolation prize of sorts it's a hell of one.  And also not undeserved.  I also wondered when we're (or the people who decide these thing anyway) going to decide it's Amy Adams' turn.  She's nominated for something practically every year!  It feels like she's always that nominee where she's not the favorite but at the same time we say "I wont argue if she does end up winning.", which is kind of how I feel about her this year.  As for the men, nothing is certain but it also seems as if Mr. Ali has too much momentum going to be stopped at this time and that is just fine by me.

[Simon Boccanegra]

12 minutes ago, kiddo82 said:

I also wondered when we're (or the people who decide these thing anyway) going to decide it's Amy Adams' turn.  She's nominated for something practically every year!  It feels like she's always that nominee where she's not the favorite but at the same time we say "I wont argue if she does end up winning.", which is kind of how I feel about her this year. 

I'm still annoyed that she wasn't nominated (for an Academy Award, anyway) for Arrival, which I found one of her strongest performances. I would have crossed Ruth Negga's soulful eye-widening in Loving right off the list. I didn't even think she was the more impressive of the two leads. (I disliked that movie, though, and was all but sticking pins in my arm to stay alert during it.)  

For Adams fans who missed it or would like to see it again, her first Oscar-nominated performance, and the one in which she won many hearts, 2005's Junebug, is free with minimal ads on Vudu through the end of this month. It's a charming little film, in which she is unhappily married to Ben McKenzie of The O.C. fame. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Simon Boccanegra

[scarynikki12]

I’m delighted that Black Panther won for Cast. I’d love it to take Best Picture but I don’t think we’ll get that lucky. I expect Olivia to win at BAFTA but tonight has me convinced that this is finally Close’s year. And I agree that Blunt winning in Supporting is a great sign for Regina’s chances. I’m not surprised by Rami and Mahershala winning and I hope they give great speeches come Oscar night. 

[starri]

5 hours ago, thuganomics85 said:

Barring Bryan Singer's name poisoning everything involved with Bohemian Rhapsody, I have to think it is his now.

I know they always lean into rewarding people playing actual historical figures, but since the voting was done prior to the article in The Atlantic, I think it will probably hurt his chances.  Assuming AMPAS is still voting.

[galaxygirl76]

1 hour ago, starri said:

I know they always lean into rewarding people playing actual historical figures, but since the voting was done prior to the article in The Atlantic, I think it will probably hurt his chances.  Assuming AMPAS is still voting.

These are the people who gave Casey Affleck an Oscar and he personally was tainted by rape accusations. The academy has consistently been giving awards to actresses who are in Woody Allen movies since his scandal broke, Adrien Brody won best actor and Roman Polanski won best director while the latter can't even enter the country because he will be arrested. 

 

It can still go either way and maybe it doesn't hurt that Singer got fired from the production. 

[absnow54]

And wasn't Rami Malek at odds with Bryan Singer while he was still a part of the production? The Best Actor race certainly has gotten interesting though. I think Rami will easily take the BAFTA, but the older Academy members might skew it back to Bale like they did a few years ago when Denzel Washington won the SAG over Casey Affleck (although that race had a very different narrative...)

[Simon Boccanegra]

2 hours ago, galaxygirl76 said:

These are the people who gave Casey Affleck an Oscar and he personally was tainted by rape accusations.

The lawsuit Affleck settled was a civil suit alleging breach of contract and sexual harassment. Neither of the two women complainants claimed he had raped or attempted to rape her.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Simon Boccanegra

[starri]

2 hours ago, galaxygirl76 said:

These are the people who gave Casey Affleck an Oscar and he personally was tainted by rape accusations. The academy has consistently been giving awards to actresses who are in Woody Allen movies since his scandal broke, Adrien Brody won best actor and Roman Polanski won best director while the latter can't even enter the country because he will be arrested. 

The Casey Affleck stuff was pre-MeToo.  I doubt he'd win today.

I mean, I'm unsure if it ultimately will hurt Malek, but what came out about Singer was SO awful.

[ruby24]

If Malek wins the BAFTA, I think he takes the Oscar. SAG is a very strong precursor for this award, and Denzel Washington had never won the SAG (surprisingly) a couple years ago, plus he wasn't nominated for the BAFTA that year, so they went with Affleck there. That was a very close race, but there was some hint that Affleck could still win.

But I think SAG + BAFTA is close to an unbeatable combo, at least in this category.

[JessePinkman]

58 minutes ago, absnow54 said:

And wasn't Rami Malek at odds with Bryan Singer while he was still a part of the production? 

Those were the rumors at the time, yes. That he refused to continue working with Singer and wouldn't return to set until he was gone. Not that I don't believe it but would Malek have the power to do that at the time?

[Athena]

1 hour ago, JessePinkman said:

Those were the rumors at the time, yes. That he refused to continue working with Singer and wouldn't return to set until he was gone. Not that I don't believe it but would Malek have the power to do that at the time?

Tom Hollander said similar things as well and he had to be talked back onto set by the producers. Singer seemed to have made it hellish for most of the cast, but they had to bear it for most of the production. They likely relied heavily on the secondary directors and production teams as well.

[Shannon L.]

1 hour ago, JessePinkman said:

Those were the rumors at the time, yes. That he refused to continue working with Singer and wouldn't return to set until he was gone. Not that I don't believe it but would Malek have the power to do that at the time?

I would think so, only in that they'd already filmed a significant number of scenes and he was nailing the part.  I don't know how else they could have resolved it at that point.

Well, SAG had a few pleasant surprises.  I was sure that Christain Bale was a lock.  I'm really happy for Rami and hope he does get the Oscar.  I love award shows, but don't pay as much attention to the politics of them or the rumors as some of you, so I'll take you're word for it that it's looking really good for him right now (while still understanding that we could get yet another surprise the Oscars).

[Ms Blue Jay]

Just opinions and hot takes:

I can't believe Bradley is not winning anything for ASIB.  I thought Gaga was just okay, so I'm fine with and I understand Glenn winning everything - but Bradley not winning one?  That's crazy.  He blew me away.

Emily winning for A Quiet Place?  Goodness.  She's a good actor and everything but again, I didn't get the big deal with that performance.  Some say Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz split votes.  Do you guys think this is possible?

So happy about Sandra Oh and the Black Panther cast.  That was great.  I still think Rami was fantastic so I'm not mad about his awards run.  Just surprised.

I'm disappointed that Emma Stone was recognized for Maniac but Jonah Hill wasn't.  I thought he did an excellent job, whereas Emma was just ok.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Ms Blue Jay

[Bliss]

I'm happy for Emily's win! She's deserving of an award for her performance for several reasons, one of them being her prowess at emoting. Remembering some of the scenes in AQP, without giving away the plot here, is difficult. I flinch every time I think of her coming down the stairs...

JMO... I've enjoyed Emily Blunt (AND her husband, John K) very much over the years. On and off screen. One of my clues to my admiration is they're on my list of the top people I'd 'like to have lunch/drinks/cardgames with someday'. Their sense of haha/gotcha is a huge part of my attraction. Laughter is sexy (to me) and smart laughter is the ultimate. These two have it in spades, and I wish them a lifetime together full of giggles and bliss.