In addition to the Binoche/Bacall example, Best Actress 2018 is another instance where BAFTA presaged a shift in momentum. Glenn Close had won the Golden Globe for Drama and the SAG (to be fair, Olivia Colman had also won a GG, but for Comedy). BAFTA, however, went for Colman, which was dismissed as Brits voting for a Brit, but really signaled a shift. Colman, of course, upset Close for the Oscar. It was really similar to the Hopkins/Boseman race.
As far as Christian Bale vs. Rami Malek. Malek did win the GG for Drama and the SAG, so it's not quite the same as this year. Of course,