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S31: Spoilers


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So its 3 hours for some reason I thought it was 2, one show and one studio show and couldn't figure out how they were going to eliminate 3 in an hour.

Have no idea how Kimmi made it this far. Would rather have Joe. So I hope she goes before Keith and Kelley. Would love a Keith Kelley Spencer f3 but I know that's not going to happen. I suspect the boot list is correct. But wouldn't it be fun if it turns out not to be?

Yes! I'm so excited when a different person goes home than was originally forecasted. But then the very next week, it's the "right" person. I'd be so happy if at least the Final 3 was wrong, in whatever way!

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I think the two idols negating all the votes is the simplest and most likely answer.  I can't believe in 30 seasons this has never happened before though.  That shows the quality of these returning players, being able to keep their mouths shut about having idols and not being forced to use them prematurely.  Whoever wins, this has been a really good season.

Edited by Haleth
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All I have to say is that with all this hype about all these epic things supposedly happening next week, I am prepared to be very disappointed lol

I've learned to accept the PR blurbs - and Jeff P's comments - at face value.  "Never before" will be true but I suspect it won't be momentous. 

 

It would be fun if Jeremy and Kelley both played their idols.

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Keith seems like a logical choice, spoilers aside, but I won't be surprised if it is wrong and Kimmi goes in 6th.  I really just want Kelley to make the final 3, but I know that is extremely unlikely.

Maybe it will be the boost lists last error lol

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I'd just like to say that I'll be sorry to see this season end, no matter who wins. Not just because it's been the best season of Survivor in like forever, but because I won't get to come here and read all the insightful and fun posts from true Survivor fans.

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I'd just like to say that I'll be sorry to see this season end, no matter who wins. Not just because it's been the best season of Survivor in like forever, but because I won't get to come here and read all the insightful and fun posts from true Survivor fans.

 

I stumbled across this forum last season, and lurked for awhile before deciding to join in.  Really glad I did!  Most of my inner circle of friends and family don't watch Survivor anymore, or at least don't care to discuss it like they did back when it was still new.  So it's nice to have that outlet here.  Plus, last season was a dud, but what made up for it was the comments here.  And even as a Savage fan, I am going to miss the ribbing he gets for his beanie, his love story, and just being Savage.

 

Maybe it will be the boost lists last error lol

 

 

I am hoping!  I'm hoping that they are making it too obvious that the final 3 is Spencer/Jeremy/Tasha, so at least one of them is wrong.  Savage made the remark about this season's winner being 'a great ambassador'.  I'm starting to re-think that.  Could he have meant Spencer?  He had some fondness for him in the game, even voting him out for being a threat.  Spencer has overcome odds (though I still think Wentworth had more of an uphill battle to get where she's at, and she's still in the minority) but he is this super fan that is supposed to fill the nerd role, and who proved Jeff wrong his first season by doing as well as he did.  I'm just wondering if maybe Spencer pulls it off.  Though I really don't think he'll have the votes for it.  Between him and Jeremy, I'd rather see Jeremy win.  Despite Jeremy not having many struggles in this game, I do think he's played it better.

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If this F3 turns out to be true I can see Spencer getting 2 maybe 3 votes tops. Tasha is a goat who will get zero votes.

Stephen - Jeremy

Andrew - Jeremy

Kimmi - Jeremy

Kelley - Jeremy

Abi - Jeremy

Ciera - Jeremy

Joe - Tossup but I could see him leaning Spencer

Kass - Spencer (especially if it is to deny Tasha 2nd place money)

Kelly - Spencer but wouldn't shock me is she went Jeremy

Keith - Tossup but leaning Jeremy most likely

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I'd just like to say that I'll be sorry to see this season end, no matter who wins. Not just because it's been the best season of Survivor in like forever, but because I won't get to come here and read all the insightful and fun posts from true Survivor fans.

We will be here for S32 starting in February. 

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Does anyone think Jeremy played "big"? He has played a great UTR game but I don't consider idols "playing big"….maybe if he uses one on Spencer (a la Natalie…..his use of one on Stephen was wasted since Stephen still left the next episode) which would be him bringing Spencer to the end rather than Spencer fighting to get there by himself.

I only ask about this because I think Jeremy will win but imo it doesn't fit with Jeff's EW quote:

"The finale is … phenomenal. Historic. Unpredictable. And ultimately satisfying. I think it will cap off, in grand fashion, what most fans will regard as one of — if not THE greatest season of Survivor. I have absolutely loved the way this group played. I am proud and impressed by the level of fierce dedication to playing to win. Everybody went big. I hope future players take a note from this season. You want to be a part of something amazing? You want a shot at being asked back? You want to be remembered? You have to play big. You have to remember that if there are 20 people playing, 95 percent of you will lose. So you truly have very little to lose. GO BIG or do yourself and your family a favor and STAY HOME."

Edited by Vicky8675309
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I suspect Jeremy will be involved in a big play this week.

 

But honestly, I don't think any of the remaining players played what I would call big. The biggest play, IMHO, was Wentworth's idoling out Savage since that ended the Brolliance. And it's not like she had to work hard for that play. She had to work hard for the idol component, but otherwise it was just luck that she was targeted at the right time. (and given the inherent instability of Stephen and Joe being in the same alliance, the Brolliance may have spectacularly ended anyway).

 

To me, big plays are things like Amanda getting James out with two idols in his pocket, the Black Widow brigade getting Eric to hand over his immunity, Jenna giving up immunity to protect Heidi and their deal with Rob C... the types of things where you take a big risk and scheme to get the other players to do what you want. This season has been played well, and I'm not criticizing, though, by saying that I don't think there have been a lot of big plays. Big plays aren't always smart plays. 

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The funny thing about eff's insistence that you need to make big plays to win Survivor is that the players themselves don't seem to believe it. I remember before last season he had a round table discussion with Parvati, Sandra, Rob C and Cochran and he asked them if they believed that and none of them agreed.  Just the other night on RHAP Boston Rob was asked about Jeff's thoughts on "big plays" and he disagreed with it as well.  It is all about making the right moves during the game.

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I've got to say, if I hadn't read the spoilers that Jeremy wins, I'm not sure I would be thinking he was the winner.  Given the spoiler, it feels like more of a "why Spencer lost/why Kelley lost" edit, rather than a "why Jeremy won" edit, which I feel is usually reserved for some female winners (not a Survivor historian nor student of editing, just a casual observation from some seasons I've watched where, say a Danni or a Sophie's, winning story barely gets told). Maybe in seeing how he makes it to final three, we get more of his story.  I hope so, just as I had hoped to hear the story of other under-edited winners previously.  Or, maybe Mike's edit last year, which I think was a "hang in there guys, the fools won't win, this guy will" edit has skewed my perception this year.

Edited by pennben
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If both Jeremy and Kelley play their HIIs at the same time and nullify all the votes, as were suspecting, then whoever survives to FTC of those two will get the credit for that play from the rest of the jury.

 

If the long shot happens according to the list, and both survive, then it's a toss-up.  Who would get the credit?  The person that plays their HII first?  Or the one that plays second, realizing what's up with the first HII getting played?

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People are playing big though.

 

Yea, Jeremy's been at the head of a successful alliance for most of the game but he's still been taking risk and making moves to set himself up for the last part of the game. Hell even when he was in a safe place at the top of his alliance, he was still looking for another HII.  This season from the start has been about showing Jeremy's strategy and then watching it be implemented.

 

Kimmi and Keith are in the same boat. If not for the list and Jeff's words, I could see either of them winning but ultimately, I don't see them making big enough moves to fit Jeff's descriptions.

 

Kelley. Hmm I'm on the fence about her. Yea, the idol play was big but ultimately it was common sense to play it regardless of whether someone told her to or not. The explanation of her game in confessional last week seems like more of a goodbye then a coronation for a new winner.

 

Tasha the editing is there to support a win for her. But the exit interviews say otherwise. Homegirl is not popular at all.

 

Spencer is Jeff's favorite player and  would probably cause Jeff to brag about this season.  He's definitely one of the co favorites to win. My only problem is that it seems like they'd be playing up his backstabbing of Jeremy to foreshadow it ( since that's the only way that Spencer would win) but other then a quick confessional last week, there's been nothing like that.

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Kass - Spencer (especially if it is to deny Tasha 2nd place money)

 

I can't see this, especially since she seems to have no love lost for him (and didn't he vote her out?), but maybe I'll be wrong. I see Wigglesworth, Wentworth and potentially Keith or Joe as Spencer votes. If both, it could be 5-4, which Jeff would love.

 

As for his description of the season, I think he'd be the type to think "Someone finding TWO IDOLS!" is a big deal and hype it accordingly. And the fact that two players found two idols apiece...that is pretty unprecedented. Did he talk about Russell Hantz making "big moves?" Because all he did was find idols. Jeff seems to think very highly of idols. Idols galore + a 5-4 win, and I think that's enough fuel for his hype.

 

But Spencer is Jeff's favorite player?! Over Joe? Did he say that? I'm not sure Spencer is Alpha (with a capital A) enough for ol' Jeff Probst.

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I assume that Jeremy either has to win f4 or a fire challenge. If Kelley goes after being called a goat by Spencer and it's not due to losing the fire challenge , then I'd have to wonder what game Spencer's playing.

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Spencer is so skinny!  Yeah, I'm thinking that the final 3 is going to be correct (rest of the order might be debatable, but makes sense).  Questioning if Spencer's 'second chance journey' will be fulfilled either by a win or just making it as far as he can.  In reality, I think Wentworth and Jeremy have the best arguments to win.  I believe Spencer will get votes, I just don't know if it'll be close.  But given the jury make up, including Keith/Kelley/Kimmi, I see it leaning more towards Jeremy winning.

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Kimmi and Keith are in the same boat. If not for the list and Jeff's words, I could see either of them winning but ultimately, I don't see them making big enough moves to fit Jeff's descriptions.

 

I don't know how you can mention do nothing Kimmi and Keith in the same sentence. 

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Does anyone think Jeremy played "big"? He has played a great UTR game but I don't consider idols "playing big"….maybe if he uses one on Spencer (a la Natalie…..his use of one on Stephen was wasted since Stephen still left the next episode) which would be him bringing Spencer to the end rather than Spencer fighting to get there by himself.

I only ask about this because I think Jeremy will win but imo it doesn't fit with Jeff's EW quote:

"The finale is … phenomenal. Historic. Unpredictable. And ultimately satisfying. I think it will cap off, in grand fashion, what most fans will regard as one of — if not THE greatest season of Survivor. I have absolutely loved the way this group played. I am proud and impressed by the level of fierce dedication to playing to win. Everybody went big. I hope future players take a note from this season. You want to be a part of something amazing? You want a shot at being asked back? You want to be remembered? You have to play big. You have to remember that if there are 20 people playing, 95 percent of you will lose. So you truly have very little to lose. GO BIG or do yourself and your family a favor and STAY HOME."

Jeremy has played brilliantly and I really hope he wins. He has yet to receive one vote at tribal council that could change in the finale but still impressive that he hasnt got one vote yet, two idols, hiding behind strong players was brilliant on his part, socially, strategically, and physically Jeremy has performed this season so well and if I were on the jury he would definitely have my vote

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Has Spencer received votes?  I can't recall.

Of course. During Shirin's vote off and Monica' blindside.

 

If Wentworth does end up being on the jury, that's two people voting who would have at least felt betrayed by Spencer, based on their own admission - Fishbach and Wentworth. So that's two votes that he already doesn't have. The only way Spencer wins this is if Jeremy doesn't get to the F3 with him. If Jeremy's there, his second chance will reach as far as a runner-up.

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Now that we are at the finale, I allowed myself to look at this thread.  I have enjoyed reading the comments.  Interesting to see that the final 3 is supposed to be Jeremy, Spencer and Tasha.  I like all three of them and would be happy to see any of them winning.  I think Jeremy has an edge if that's the final, as he seems a lot more well liked.  Spencer and Tasha did what they had to do to stay alive in the game, and in the process probably irritated a few.

 

If Wentworth does end up being on the jury, that's two people voting who would have at least felt betrayed by Spencer, based on their own admission - Fishbach and Wentworth. So that's two votes that he already doesn't have. The only way Spencer wins this is if Jeremy doesn't get to the F3 with him. If Jeremy's there, his second chance will reach as far as a runner-up.

Yes, but not everyone always casts their vote based on who they are bittercakes against.  The season that Tyson won, he was quite visibly the person that orchestrated many of the jurors' boots, and yet most of them voted for him anyways.  They were also probably ticked at Monica for not thinking for herself and making a move to get Tyson out.  But if they had truly been bitter, they could have awarded the money to Gervase, who truly did nothing in the game.

 

But Spencer is Jeff's favorite player?! Over Joe? Did he say that? I'm not sure Spencer is Alpha (with a capital A) enough for ol' Jeff Probst.

I'm surprised.  Quite frankly, Spencer doesn't have the muscle or the looks to be Jeff's favourite player.  All of Jeff's obsessions are hunky muscled young-ish guys.

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Yes, but not everyone always casts their vote based on who they are bittercakes against.  The season that Tyson won, he was quite visibly the person that orchestrated many of the jurors' boots, and yet most of them voted for him anyways.  They were also probably ticked at Monica for not thinking for herself and making a move to get Tyson out.  But if they had truly been bitter, they could have awarded the money to Gervase, who truly did nothing in the game.

 

I think they can be bitter AND still vote the best person they thought to have played the game. That's why I said Spencer will have no shot against Jeremy because it does seem like Jeremy has been viewed amongst them as having played the best game among all. If Spencer is with Tasha and Kimmi, I can see him getting the votes, even from those he "betrayed", because he still played the best game out of the other choices. And since these are all returning players, I don't see anyone holding a very personal grudge as to not reward someone who played the best game of the money. They all know the game by now and how it goes. Well, maybe except for Kass and Tasha. Even if Tasha ends up, hypothetically, being the strongest player left in F3, Kass would not vote for her.

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Of course. During Shirin's vote off and Monica' blindside.

 

If Wentworth does end up being on the jury, that's two people voting who would have at least felt betrayed by Spencer, based on their own admission - Fishbach and Wentworth. So that's two votes that he already doesn't have. The only way Spencer wins this is if Jeremy doesn't get to the F3 with him. If Jeremy's there, his second chance will reach as far as a runner-up.

 

Also the Woo boot.  He trusted Savage so much he couldn't see he was about to be blindsided.  I don't think Kass would vote for him, either, and considering Joe said his first reaction when he got voted off was to throw Spencer off a cliff, I don't believe he'll get his vote, either. 

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Isn't Cochran the only player to have played what is referred to as a "perfect game", i.e. no votes at all?

 

No, Cochran is one of two.  J.T. is the other.  And Earl won his FTC unanimously, but I think he took a vote or two during the game

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Isn't the Immunity challenge the one done recently where you have balls going down the ramps and you have to keep them going so they don't drop? And then you keep adding balls until people start dropping out? If memory serves, someone's advantage gave him (I think it was a guy) extra time to practice and ended up getting immunity.

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Isn't the Immunity challenge the one done recently where you have balls going down the ramps and you have to keep them going so they don't drop? And then you keep adding balls until people start dropping out? If memory serves, someone's advantage gave him (I think it was a guy) extra time to practice and ended up getting immunity.

You are thinking about the challenge Keith won in SJDS this is from Tocantins 

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The season that Tyson won, he was quite visibly the person that orchestrated many of the jurors' boots, and yet most of them voted for him anyways.  They were also probably ticked at Monica for not thinking for herself and making a move to get Tyson out.  But if they had truly been bitter, they could have awarded the money to Gervase, who truly did nothing in the game.

 

Everything Tyson did, Gervase did and vice versa. Besides, at least Aras and Vytas were bitter with Gervase for betraying their pregame alliance.

 

No, Cochran is one of two.  J.T. is the other.  And Earl won his FTC unanimously, but I think he took a vote or two during the game

 

 

Yea, one vote. Gotta love Rita and her randomness

 

Since Keith likely isn't around by that time, that final immunity challenge looks like something that Spencer should easily win.

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Press photos are out:

 

http://insidesurvivor.com/2015/12/survivor-second-chance-episode-14-press-photos/

 

One weird thing Kelley is not in any of those camp shots. 

 

Kelley going out 6th would be weird. That would mean she didn't play the idol and wouldn't match up with that first time in history thing. However I guess theres still a way she can play the idol and go home? Are idols still good on revotes? So if Jeremy and Kelley do play the idols are both immune on a revote if there are 0 voted that would be eligible to count?

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All I have to say is that with all this hype about all these epic things supposedly happening next week, I am prepared to be very disappointed lol

I am preparing to be disappointed as well if F3 is correct. Jeremy has had it too easy , Spencer and Tasha play for him. I want F3 to be wrong. There's no suspense when these fools are too dumb keeping Jeremy safe

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I am preparing to be disappointed as well if F3 is correct. Jeremy has had it too easy , Spencer and Tasha play for him. I want F3 to be wrong. There's no suspense when these fools are too dumb keeping Jeremy safe

 I guess Kimmi could sneak in there, but not like she would be giving Jeremy a run of his money. Jeremy can beat anyone left I think. 

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Press photos are out:

 

http://insidesurvivor.com/2015/12/survivor-second-chance-episode-14-press-photos/

 

One weird thing Kelley is not in any of those camp shots. 

 

Kelley going out 6th would be weird. That would mean she didn't play the idol and wouldn't match up with that first time in history thing. However I guess theres still a way she can play the idol and go home? Are idols still good on revotes? So if Jeremy and Kelley do play the idols are both immune on a revote if there are 0 voted that would be eligible to count?

I don't think she is. Look at the stuff behind the contestants, I think that plaid shirt is Kelley's. She's probably out getting water or something when these shots were taken.

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I guess Kimmi could sneak in there, but not like she would be giving Jeremy a run of his money. Jeremy can beat anyone left I think.

I think he will beat anyone left that's why this season is starting to look like a disapointing finish. I'm rooting hard for a Kelley or Spencer but all these fools seem content to let Jeremy make F4 which is stupid. He's a challenge threat and social threat

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Between Jeremy, Spencer, and Wentworth, I think it could be close.  Actually, it might be a closer vote between Jeremy and Wentworth, and I believe she could win over Spencer.

 

If Wentworth won immunity, I don't believe she would play her idol on someone else (still creating the 'first time in history' by negating that person's votes) because she would still be able to use it at the final 5.  My guess is either they wanted to throw people off for the press pics, or her's just didn't make the final cut.  After last season, and even some snafus with this season, they must have gotten careful.  I wouldn't think that votes negated by the idol would count in a re-vote.  It would seem kind of pointless to play the idol and still be voted out.

 

And yes, I am prepared to be let down.  Usually Jeff's hype fails me.  I think it'll be a good finale, but not my ideal winner or final 3.  I'm still hoping something on the list proves wrong and Kelley slips in there.

Edited by LadyChatts
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I'm fine with Jeremy winning. Yes, Spencer and Tasha seem to be playing as much for Jeremy as for themselves, but Jeremy worked to build those relationships. He came in with a strategy for how he was going to get to the end and has pretty much executed it. I do think he's earned it, and he'll be a feel-good winner.

 

I would be thrilled if Wentworth had a surprise victory over him because I think she's had harder path and played very well, but I will be really bummed if Spencer wins over him (or Tasha... ha! I kid, I kid, we all know Tasha has no chance in heck). I just don't think Spencer's actually played well outside of the physical aspects, and it's hard for me to respect someone's game who was going to be blindsided by Savage.

 

I really hope Kelley's absence from the camp photos doesn't mean a surprise exit at final 6. That will be super disappointing.

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I think he will beat anyone left that's why this season is starting to look like a disapointing finish. I'm rooting hard for a Kelley or Spencer but all these fools seem content to let Jeremy make F4 which is stupid. He's a challenge threat and social threat

From a player/Juror perspective, I don't know if I would agree. Other than potential-but-as-yet-undemonstrated physicality, there's no reason to perceive Jeremy as a challenge threat; he hasn't won a single individual reward OR immunity challenge to date. Keith, Kelley and Spencer all currently trounce Jeremy in that respect. Jeremy has an excellent social game, to be sure - but from the Juror perspective, what has been particularly significant about his strategic game, other than his idol play which (a) booted Ciera and (b) bought Stephen three more days?

This is what peachmangosteen and I were discussing earlier on a different thread: has Jeremy played UTR too successfully, to the point Jurors (who don't see the THs we do) won't recognize the real strategy behind his game?

IMHO - from the Jury's perspective, Jeremy's game would be rated somewhere above average: excellent social, better-than-average strategic, below-average (or below expectations at the VERY least) physical. That's AT PRESENT, of course - but time is running out, and with it the chance to revise those perceptions. IMHO if Jeremy wants to win, he seriously needs to fluff up his game resume by winning out on virtually every RC/IC left; that, or have one HELLUVA good set of speech notes in his pocket come FTC.

Sure, Jeremy is a nice guy to whom no one would mind giving the Big Check - but that's depending almost totally upon one aspect of the game (social) to win. How is that a laudable strategy for Jeremy, when Joe was castigated for doing the same thing with a focus on the physical aspect?

ETA: fixed typos

Edited by Nashville
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I don't think she is. Look at the stuff behind the contestants, I think that plaid shirt is Kelley's. She's probably out getting water or something when these shots were taken.

Voted out contestants leave clothes behind all the time. That means nothing.

Edited by anthonyd46
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Both idols are going to played. I think that is given at this point based on Probst's comments. The question is if the people playing their idols are vulnerable again at the re-vote. If they are then Kelley goes home.

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has Jeremy played UTR too successfully, to the point Jurors (who don't see the THs we do) won't recognize the real strategy behind his game?

How can Jeremy be described as playing an UTR game given that multiple players have said both on screen and in exit interviews that they recognize Jeremy as one of the people running the show and the probable winner if he makes FTC? If the jury prioritizes big splashy moves, it's possible that Jeremy won't win. But we know that he's not playing under-the-radar. He is very much on the radar to the point where part of why Stephen was so shocked about Spencer's betrayal of their alliance is that he didn't understand why Spencer would target Stephen over Jeremy.

 

Also, what on earth has anyone else done that's so much bigger or resume building than Jeremy? Spencer organized the vote out of Jeremy's main ally and then moved right into Stephen's place. That's hardly an earth shattering move. It's not like Spencer's the strategic power behind the throne based on what we're seeing. As far as we saw, Tasha controlled the decision about who to vote for the last two votes. It's shaping up that the only things Spencer is going to be able to claim are that he won multiple immunities and voted off Stephen. Tasha won't be credited with anything even when she should be (she's been in-the-know and a core member of the controlling alliance since merge). Kelley has her idol play(s). Keith has being good at immunities. Kimmi's got nothing at this point even if she somehow manages to make FTC.

 

 

 

Sure, Jeremy is a nice guy to whom no one would mind giving the Big Check - but that's depending almost totally upon one aspect of the game (social) to win. How is that a laudable strategy for Jeremy, when Joe was castigated for doing the same thing with a focus on the physical aspect?

Because social is not just one aspect of Survivor; it IS Survivor. The physical is just like being good at building a shelter and hunting food. It's a complicating factor that can influence the social, but it's not the core aspect of the game. That's why Sandra is the queen of Survivor, and Terry and Ozzy are just noteworthy runner ups.

Edited by Zuleikha
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According to many exit interviews, many castaways have perceived Jeremy as running things. Kass and Savage have explicitly said Jeremy is low key running things. Ciera acknowledged on the show before getting voted out that nobody can beat Jeremy if they make it to the end with him. Stephen said he thought Jeremy was playing the best game. Abi thought that Tasha and Kimmi were just doing whatever Jeremy wanted them to do. Castaways are aware that Jeremy has made many close allies who trust him and will vote with him. Kass and Ciera have said that Jeremy has "minions" feeding him information and working with him. If Wiglesworth has the mentality of just voting for who she likes best, she'll probably vote for Jeremy. She said she connected with Jeremy but wasn't close with Spencer. Jeremy's great game play is noticed by the jury. If everybody keeps on thinking he is running the Bayon alliance throughout the merge, than he'll get votes from people who want to vote for who they think is playing the best game. Let's also not forget that Jeremy has one of the best social games of the season, if not the best social game of the season. Most of the castaways on the jury like Jeremy.

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Exactly! And who have we seen on screen deflecting target away from Jeremy when his name was brought up? His stooge Tasha and Spencer! If they want to win Jeremy has to go! It's mind boggling that he isn't seriously targeted and he is seen as running the show

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