S44.E01: I Can't Wait to See Jeff

[HurricaneVal]

The scramble to the first vote was very hard to follow, and kind of illogical to me.  Bearded Matt with the dislocated shoulder and badly cut foot was not in contention at all, which speaks to his social skills in camp.  I 100% believe he went with the SITD so he didn't have to vote for his supposed coconut bestie Brandon, and he had the "my injuries make me look weak, so I was afraid I was a real target" ready-made excuse.  So he was more afraid of not following Maddy's plan to vote out Brandon than he was of betraying an alliance forged in the heat of battle. 

I think this speaks to how powerfully Maddy was working to influence the vote.  We saw some of it in the scene where the others were obviously arguing to keep Brandon because of his physical strength, his over-exerted collapse at the challenge notwithstanding, and she gestured at herself and asserted "I'm strong too, we can do without him!"  That's the moment I knew she was nuts, that immunity challenge clearly pointed out how much strength they needed, and how very much they were leaning on Brandon's strength.  If I've learned anything about Survivor, it is that production is very, very fond of brute strength challenges. 

It makes absolutely no sense at this point in the game to vote out your strength.  That is a loser strategy.  You keep your tribe strong until the merge, then you boot the big boy as soon as you can afterward so he can't go on an individual immunity run to the end.  If Brandon was an enormous asshole, mistreating everyone, and leching around camp, then.....yeah, get rid of his ass as soon as possible, but I saw no evidence of that--not that production would necessarily show that. 

I think Maddy simply came out too hard and overplayed.  She was obviously very good at working the vote, but how could she completely forget that Brandon was not only holding an idol, but also knew about her machinations?  She wasn't being subtle.  Her strategy was not aimed at flushing the idol, it was a straight out move to get rid of Brandon.  Because he didn't trust her when they were looking for the clue, and he found it.  In the end, her butt hurt over that made her play emotionally, and Brandon handily outplayed that. 

That would have come out entirely differently if Brandon didn't have the idol, though.  Maybe he didn't fight back harder because of that.  Maybe the idol allowed him to lay back and just let it all play out, and if he didn't have it, he might have worked an opposition strategy of "Look at how hard she's playing, she's dangerous, man.  This time it is me, next time it could be you, and you know without my strength, this tribe is going to lose a lot of challenges.  We've got to get rid of her now before she wins this whole thing!"

[eel21788]

2 hours ago, HurricaneVal said:

I 100% believe he went with the SITD so he didn't have to vote for his supposed coconut bestie Brandon, and he had the "my injuries make me look weak, so I was afraid I was a real target" ready-made excuse.  So he was more afraid of not following Maddy's plan to vote out Brandon than he was of betraying an alliance forged in the heat of battle. 

Someone said something to the effect of "If we target Brandon and don't get him out, it is going to come back to haunt us."

Who was it? I know it was one of the guys, but I don't remember if it was Matthew or Kane.

[ZeeEnnui]

Wow, drugs not only fry brains, but they also fry hair. 

This season of Survivor is brought to you by 9-1-1. Are they going to have to change the tagline to "Outwit. Outplay. Outlast Outlive?" If contestants keep dropping like this that medic may have to tag in and play the game. 

Glad to know that the Shot in the Dark isn't a complete scam (still dumb). It took how many seasons for it to matter?

[iMonrey]

Quote

Caroline is giving nutty Noura vibes and that could either mean she makes it far like Noura did even while being totally kooky or she's eliminated quickly. 

I'm amazed how many of you remember these past contestants so well. I looked up Noura and for the life of me have no recollection of her whatsoever. Once a season is over they completely leave my memory, for the most part.

[Grrarrggh]

14 minutes ago, iMonrey said:

I'm amazed how many of you remember these past contestants so well. I looked up Noura and for the life of me have no recollection of her whatsoever. Once a season is over they completely leave my memory, for the most part.

I've been saying for a while that I'd love to see a season of Survivor non-fans competing. They could get a simple rule book before coming to the island so they know about things like Idols etc. It would be so much better than series after series of obsessed superfans blathering on and on. 

[Skooma]

37 minutes ago, iMonrey said:

I'm amazed how many of you remember these past contestants so well. I looked up Noura and for the life of me have no recollection of her whatsoever. Once a season is over they completely leave my memory, for the most part.

Yeah and they TOTALLY leave my mind for the ALL part.  I can't even tell you who won last season.

There was someone here saying a couple of time we all should have known who Maddy was immediately because of something or other.  LOL!  Hell, I didn't even know who she was when she was voted out.  I had to come here to find out she was in that idol finding scenario.

Guess I don't really care about keeping all these people straight in my head out of the gate.  About mid-season I start learning some names.  And a couple of weeks after the season ends I forget them all again anyhow, haha.  It is just an entertainment to me.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Skooma

[violet and green]

I attach their names to their hair and facial hair. So curly haired with specs is Matt, and huge dark beard injured guy on Ratu is Mathew, and so on. I could only recognize Maddy when her hair was in plaits. But when the season ends, all the names go unless I really liked them and they didn't win.

[Cthulhudrew]

On 3/2/2023 at 4:27 AM, Haleth said:

Before he hit his head I noticed that he was launching himself at the structure that he had to crawl under.  It appeared that he misjudged the second one and smacked his head on the edge.

He dove at both of the crawl-unders; I remember seeing him do that at the first one and thinking "that's a great way to get a concussion."

Then, lo and behold, he goes and proves the point. Really dumb move.

On another note, I wonder if anyone thought to take the second obstacle on their back. After someone (Carolyn?) came out the other end saying she couldn't see due to the mud in her eyes, I can't help but think it would have been a more efficient tactic.

[mertensia]

4 hours ago, violet and green said:

I attach their names to their hair and facial hair. So curly haired with specs is Matt, and huge dark beard injured guy on Ratu is Mathew, and so on. I could only recognize Maddy when her hair was in plaits. But when the season ends, all the names go unless I really liked them and they didn't win.

Wait - there's a Matt **and** a Mathew?!?!?

[violet and green]

6 minutes ago, mertensia said:

Wait - there's a Matt **and** a Mathew?!?!?

Yes! Matt (curly) is on Soka and Mathew (big beard) is on Ratu.

[ArtFossil]

Loved the “of course you should know who Maddie is” posts. For myself I was just “you (did not know her name but yes, it was Maddie) are an idiot for targeting Brandon knowing that (a) he had an idol and (b) he knows you’re pissed at him because he didn’t agree with your plan to keep the idol secret.” What a maroon! I’m glad she was voted out. 
 

Christ in a handbag. Why not vote out the player whose arm is in a sling?

Edited March 4, 2023 by ArtFossil

[SVNBob]

8 hours ago, Skooma said:

Yeah and they TOTALLY leave my mind for the ALL part.  I can't even tell you who won last season.

There was someone here saying a couple of time we all should have known who Maddy was immediately because of something or other.  LOL!  Hell, I didn't even know who she was when she was voted out.  I had to come here to find out she was in that idol finding scenario.

Guess I don't really care about keeping all these people straight in my head out of the gate.  About mid-season I start learning some names.  And a couple of weeks after the season ends I forget them all again anyhow, haha.  It is just an entertainment to me.

 

7 hours ago, violet and green said:

I attach their names to their hair and facial hair. So curly haired with specs is Matt, and huge dark beard injured guy on Ratu is Mathew, and so on. I could only recognize Maddy when her hair was in plaits. But when the season ends, all the names go unless I really liked them and they didn't win.

 

3 hours ago, mertensia said:

Wait - there's a Matt **and** a Mathew?!?!?

 

This season's Tracker thread's a-comin'.

[Cotypubby]

On 3/3/2023 at 4:01 AM, SVNBob said:

Assuming Jaime drew first, she absolutely changed Matthew's odds.  Because the odds change with the total number of scrolls in the bag, regardless of what they say.

As we saw, she drew the lone SAFE.  Meaning he had a 0 in 5 chance of drawing it.  But if she drew one of the NOT SAFEs, he'd have had a 1 in 5 chance of getting the SAFE.  Or, a 20% chance instead of the 16.67% she did.

No she didn’t. The odds were exactly the same. If 6 people draw straws the odds do not change between the first person and last person picking. They all have a 1 in 6 chance.

[Diana Berry]

is it crazy ,that I thought the tall guy and the tall gal ( sorry don’t know their names yet)  would make a cute couple and then they become a cute couple, from the beginning when they were standing with their tribe.?

[SVNBob]

18 hours ago, Cotypubby said:

No she didn’t. The odds were exactly the same. If 6 people draw straws the odds do not change between the first person and last person picking. They all have a 1 in 6 chance.

Incorrect.  The odds do change in both cases.  Because the draws are dependent on each other.  Once someone draws one straw of the six, you can't pick the same straw they did.  So you have fewer choices to pick from, and thus different odds than them. 

The only way that Jaime and Matthew would have had the same odds of drawing the SAFE scroll would be if the bag had been replenished in some way between their draws.  Which, TPTB could have done.  The easiest way would be to have an identical "back-up" scroll bag with the same 1 SAFE and 5 NOT SAFE scrolls and swap it out after one person draws from it, then they could check the first bag to see what was drawn and replace it, and repeat as needed during a TC. 

But we don't think they do that, or do anything to replenish the bag during a given TC.  Which means that the first person to draw from the bag does have the stated 1 in 6 chance of drawing the SAFE.  But the second person at the same TC would only be drawing from 5 scrolls.  Meaning they'd have at best a 1 in 5 chance of getting the SAFE, or at worst drawing dead with a 0 in 5 chance.

[DEL901]

We can assume they do something between draws because even though Matt announced he was doing the SITD 2nd, Jess read his first…almost like Jeff knew Jamie was safe.  

[Cotypubby]

4 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Incorrect.  The odds do change in both cases.  Because the draws are dependent on each other.  Once someone draws one straw of the six, you can't pick the same straw they did.  So you have fewer choices to pick from, and thus different odds than them. 

No you are wrong here. Every drawing is dependent on the ones that came before, you can never pick the same straw or rock twice. That does not mean that the last person to choose has a 1:1 or 0:1 chance at winning. You have to add in the probability that the previous picks did not pull it. The math evens out that each pull has the exact same odds of 1/6.

Unless the first pick is revealed and then the next player picks. Then their odds would change.

Google this and read any mathematical answer. The odds do not change.

https://parade.com/415809/marilynvossavant/the-chances-of-drawing-the-short-straw/

 

https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1475654/in-a-game-of-drawing-straws-why-are-all-turns-equally-good

https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/3ogz3m/if_you_are_drawing_straws_as_a_group_of_6_when_is/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Edited March 5, 2023 by Cotypubby

[Morrissey]

I'm glad Maddy is gone. She struck me as the type of person who gets pissy if being rejected. Which is exactly what Brandon did. 

Her frantic bulldozer "he's playing all of us!!1!" approach just isn't my cup of tea.

I kind of miss the subtlety, elegance and cunningness of Cirie's social game. 

[jsm1125]

9 hours ago, Morrissey said:

I'm glad Maddy is gone. She struck me as the type of person who gets pissy if being rejected. Which is exactly what Brandon did. 

Her frantic bulldozer "he's playing all of us!!1!" approach just isn't my cup of tea.

I kind of miss the subtlety, elegance and cunningness of Cirie's social game. 

In fairness to Maddy, why wouldn’t she gun for the person who all but told her he didn’t want to work with her?

[SVNBob]

15 hours ago, Cotypubby said:

No you are wrong here. Every drawing is dependent on the ones that came before, you can never pick the same straw or rock twice. That does not mean that the last person to choose has a 1:1 or 0:1 chance at winning. You have to add in the probability that the previous picks did not pull it. The math evens out that each pull has the exact same odds of 1/6.

Unless the first pick is revealed and then the next player picks. Then their odds would change.

Google this and read any mathematical answer. The odds do not change.

Yeah, you're right.  Though I'm not entirely wrong; just less correct.  My thought process was accurate to a point, but I hadn't completed all the logic and math.

I was focusing on just the probabilities of each individual draw, which do change with the number of available options to choose from (as in a 1 in 6 chance is a different probability from a 1 in 5).

But the overall odds for a draw are the sum of the potential probabilities of that draw multiplied by the probability those could occur (as in: depending on the outcome of the 1 in 6 draw, the 1 in 5 chance would come up 5 out of 6 times, while the 0 in 5 would only happen in the remaining 1 out of 6 times.)  (Or as they say on the Discworld, million to one shots crop up nine times out of ten.)  And in this case, those do indeed even out at 1 in 6.

[Morrissey]

10 hours ago, jsm1125 said:

In fairness to Maddy, why wouldn’t she gun for the person who all but told her he didn’t want to work with her?

She's allowed to gun for whomever she wants. Fortunately, she did in a way that got her voted off. 

[Hanahope]

On 3/5/2023 at 7:28 AM, DEL901 said:

We can assume they do something between draws because even though Matt announced he was doing the SITD 2nd, Jess read his first…almost like Jeff knew Jamie was safe.  

or when they showed it on TV, they put the scroll reading out of order.

[ladymon]

8 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Yeah, you're right.  Though I'm not entirely wrong; just less correct.  My thought process was accurate to a point, but I hadn't completed all the logic and math.

I was focusing on just the probabilities of each individual draw, which do change with the number of available options to choose from (as in a 1 in 6 chance is a different probability from a 1 in 5).

But the overall odds for a draw are the sum of the potential probabilities of that draw multiplied by the probability those could occur (as in: depending on the outcome of the 1 in 6 draw, the 1 in 5 chance would come up 5 out of 6 times, while the 0 in 5 would only happen in the remaining 1 out of 6 times.)  (Or as they say on the Discworld, million to one shots crop up nine times out of ten.)  And in this case, those do indeed even out at 1 in 6.

I'm just enjoying the math-off!

 

[Tango64]

On 3/3/2023 at 5:11 PM, Grrarrggh said:

I've been saying for a while that I'd love to see a season of Survivor non-fans competing. They could get a simple rule book before coming to the island so they know about things like Idols etc. It would be so much better than series after series of obsessed superfans blathering on and on. 

Upvoting this wasn't enough. I beleive so strongly that this could revitalize this show and make a lot of us more excited about watching. Survivor Reboot. Take it back to what made the show so good in the first place. It's an entirely different contest when you have nothing but superfans who have made spreadsheets of everything that has ever happened in 44 seasons.

[ArtFossil]

On 3/5/2023 at 8:05 PM, jsm1125 said:

In fairness to Maddy, why wouldn’t she gun for the person who all but told her he didn’t want to work with her?

Because he knew Maddy was angry at him and he had an immunity idol. 
 

And why go after the strong team member, knowing he has an idol, instead of getting rid of the useless guy in a sling?

In any event my Survivor strategy is generally useless. I’m just glad Maddy is gone. 

[Jobiska]

Finally got to watch.  

Such a blown chance at a good episode title.  "I can't wait to see Jeff!"...eyeroll.  Every few scenes I turned to my son and said "that [sentence just uttered] would have been a better title quote!"  The "maybe it's candy" was one :-D

Okay, sword, helmet, shield, medieval, whatever (in Fiji?)...fake dragon skull?  too over the top for me.  

Jeff, as he cradles Bruce's head:  "You're in good hands now."  I know he meant medical...I hope he meant medical...but oh, Jeff.

Jeff at TC:  "No tribal council decision is ever easy."  Well, because earlier I saw him giving a shoulder rub to Brandon while medical was tending to him, I flashed back to him rubbing Brandon Hantz' shoulders while the tribe decided to go ahead and have an impromptu council right there on the beach at the challenge in order to vote BH out.  That seemed pretty easy.  And I think there have been a few others.

Usually I roll my eyes at beachmances, but for whatever reason I hope Matt and (Connie?) make it and are the geeky counterpart to the Marianos.  

Matt's delivery and voice and smile somewhat remind me of Derek Z from Big Brother/Amazing Race/The Challenge.  

That "throw the ring up and off" thing was just so awful to watch on orange's part.  I wouldn't even have got it as high as (that was Carolyn, right?).  No arm strength.  At least it was something different, though!  

Matthew:  dislocates and relocates shoulder, scratches up arms, wounds toe--everyone, including himself, looks at his blood-dripping toe with concern--and then we see him shirt-slinged up and no further word about his toe.  I guess it didn't fall off, at least.
 

[sara416]

On 3/2/2023 at 2:46 AM, CoyoteBlue said:

She definitely gives the vibes of "drugs fucked me up, but I got clean and now I help other people get off them." That 'my brain will never quite work the same' energy. Carolyn also flails like a muppet.

I worked in substance abuse counseling for 3 years. That tracks. Most people work in the field and their only qualification is "recovering addict". I felt pretty out of place with my history of "went to school for counseling". It's a weird field. 

Edited March 9, 2023 by sara416

[Sarahsmile416]

On 3/9/2023 at 10:57 AM, sara416 said:

I worked in substance abuse counseling for 3 years. That tracks. Most people work in the field and their only qualification is "recovering addict". I felt pretty out of place with my history of "went to school for counseling". It's a weird field. 

Indeed.  Mr Sarahsmile was a substance abuse counselor and was a recovering addict.  While I do think it’s a pretty flimsy qualification, I can understand why they do that.  Though it can work for and against them too.

Honestly, this is why I am one of the minority who likes Carolyn, or at least I want to like her.   I’m not sure how long that will last considering I couldn’t even stick out a full video on RHAP on her that was 20 minutes long.  

[awaken]

18 hours ago, Sarahsmile416 said:

Honestly, this is why I am one of the minority who likes Carolyn, or at least I want to like her.   I’m not sure how long that will last considering I couldn’t even stick out a full video on RHAP on her that was 20 minutes long.  

Glad I’m not the only one!  I could barely get through that interview with her wailing and crying at the most basic questions. She was a bit more tolerable in person, but I’m afraid this season is going to be all Carolyn, all the time. 

[Cornhusker12]

On 3/3/2023 at 4:11 PM, Grrarrggh said:

I've been saying for a while that I'd love to see a season of Survivor non-fans competing. They could get a simple rule book before coming to the island so they know about things like Idols etc. It would be so much better than series after series of obsessed superfans blathering on and on. 

 

On 3/6/2023 at 11:29 AM, Tango64 said:

Upvoting this wasn't enough. I beleive so strongly that this could revitalize this show and make a lot of us more excited about watching. Survivor Reboot. Take it back to what made the show so good in the first place. It's an entirely different contest when you have nothing but superfans who have made spreadsheets of everything that has ever happened in 44 seasons.

Alright I'm way late starting this season and maybe my feelings on this will fade after another couple eps, but I still wanted to comment about this because I totally agree!

I think somewhere in the middle of the show's run, fans got tired of the "recruited" castmembers who had never seen the show and were only brought in for drama or because they fit an archetype or whatever, and the "superfan" castmembers were seen as more deserving of a chance to play. I think at this point it has swung too far in the opposite direction.

There have already been a couple seasons now in this new S40+ era that are overflowing with superfans who are, for lack of a better word, "nerds..." (I'm sorry if that is judgmental, if it helps I would be considered a nerd as well if I was on the show haha, but I think it's true.) SO many superfans who are extremely "online," who study the puzzles and strategies of past seasons as a hobby, and who neurotically obsess over the mental game.

I have nothing against players like this at all! I loved Cochran, Christian, Aubrey, Erik, etc. I do have a problem however, with the show casting so many of one type of player.

To me, Survivor is about throwing ALL kinds of people together. Nerds, jocks, rich, poor, LGBTQ+, straight, funny, boring, smart, dumb, crazy, reserved, old, young, urban, rural, etc. It seems like by casting so many similar types of "young/nerdy" players recently, the show has veered a little bit too far toward the "OUTWIT" part of the slogan, which has left the "OUTPLAY" and "OUTLAST" parts behind a little bit.

I want to see odd couples bond like Stephen and JT, or ultracompetitors slicing and dicing their competition like Kim or Boston Rob, or people earning their stay by providing food and shelter for the tribe, or lowkey social geniuses catching people by surprise like Cirie. I'm growing tired of having THIS many people show up like they won a Survivor Sweepstakes where they get to go on vacation with their demigod hero Jeff Probst and then flail around like kids on a sugar rush all season haha. We need a little more variety!

Edited March 15, 2023 by Cornhusker12

[bankerchick]

On 3/8/2023 at 4:52 PM, Jobiska said:

Usually I roll my eyes at beachmances, but for whatever reason I hope Matt and (Connie?) make it and are the geeky counterpart to the Marianos.  

As long as they don't keep bringing them back as players until they win, then ruin Amazing Race for me, then bring them back as mentors for several seasons.

[millennium]

So sick and tired of the boat/raft/haul a big chest/solve a puzzle challenge.  They have used that same set so many times I now have a false memory that I have personally visited that beach.

I think Fred was living some Cody fantasy when he started up that rock.   I had this fear he would get to the top and then be unable to get back down again.   Fortunately he nearly toppled to his death before that could happen.

Poor Carolyn.  She's getting the psycho edit.   I think the crew must be supplying her with eyeliner and mascara just for effect.

[millennium]

On 3/2/2023 at 11:30 AM, SuburbanHangSuite said:

seriously LOL'd when he's trying to reach through the birdcage bars saying, "Maybe it's candy!"  Why would it be candy??!!  😂

I was hoping it would be a bag of scorpions.   This show needs to stop playing nice.