S42.E12: Caterpillar to a Butterfly

[lawrbk]

3 hours ago, bankerchick said:

Am I correct in assuming that nobody knew Lindsay's idol expired tonight?  They certainly knew she had one.  I thought once she said that it was the last night it could be used, it would have been the same for the other idols and we would have half of the crew immune. I could not figure out why Maryanne kept pushing to vote Omar because Lindsay no longer needed the idol and would likely give it away but I guess if they thought hers was good for another week (like theirs) they assumed she would keep it.  If she had given it to Omar, there would have been a tie and likely Jonathan would go on the revote.  So ultimately Lindsay blew her own game by trying to be too clever and not giving her idol to Omar so that it wouldn't be put back into the game (which seems unlikely at Final 5.)

ETA:  Drea is stunning.  Like, wow.

Yeah she blew her own game. If Omar had been safe because of her idol, it would’ve been 2-2 Romeo and Jonathan. Revote and Jonathan goes home because Maryanne definitely would’ve switched her vote to Jonathan  even if mike didn’t. Lindsey would have gotten rid of Jonathan, made a big move protecting Omar and Maryanne’s big move would’ve been neutralized. 

Edited May 19, 2022 by lawrbk

[Primetimer]

Just posted: Maryanne finally earned the winner's edit she's been receiving all season. Will she ride it all the way to that million dollar check? Primetimer's Joe Reid weighs in:
https://www.primetimer.com/features/one-last-survivor-blindside-crowns-a-new-odds-on-favorite

[Mediocre Gatsby]

I thought I was done seeing Jonathan and Mike mansplaining things, but nope! One more time! Good for Maryanne. The jury looked thrilled, and Lindsey looked flabbergasted. 

Even if Mike had been right about Lindsey giving her amulet to Omar, Maryanne would have been happy with the likely Jonathan revote. I just hate the way they barely gave her plan the courtesy of a cursory hearing. 

eta Romeo was finally on the right side of a vote. Must have felt good. 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Mediocre Gatsby
I always forget about Romeo

[HurricaneVal]

Maryanne, you minx!  That was brilliant.  I've always thought you were playing an observant game, and you pulled off a big move in an unexpected way.  You played Romeo perfectly.  Too bad the alpha males Mike and Jonathan couldn't see through their prey instincts to think strategically.  You didn't need them anyways in the end.  Well done.

Lindsey.  Lindsey, Lindsey, Lindsey...  That was an amazing show of arrogance and very bad jury management to not give your immunity idol away.  This was the last TC you could use it, you won individual immunity, why not toss your HII to someone in an act of goodwill, or in grand Parvati stir the pot tradition?

Instead you were blindsided more that Omar was.  You done fucked up, girl.  You have no allies left.  You could have literally thrown that thing away on Romeo or, hell, Maryanne and made jury points.  You could have put it on Omar, and that would have completely changed the vote and maybe the game.

But you didn't.  Because you think beating Jonathan is winning the game.

You sweet summer child.

[LadyChatts]

I went back and watched the episode (probably the first time I actually re-watched the episode the same night it aired, but that's how good the vote was).  Anyway, Lindsey's logic for not using her idol is she was afraid it would be put back in circulation.  I thought it might be a bad move for her to play it on Omar, but she probably could have made a logical argument without making it seem like they are a tight pair.  Omar was all over the place with his loyalties I question how close he really was to Lindsey.  Anyway, I realized I was more happy she didn't play her idol for him because it proved Mike wrong, than I was for the incredible blindside it provided.  

When MaryAnne was sitting between Mike and Jonathan and trying to explain why it was safe and logical to vote for Omar, and they were arguing with her, she had this look on her face like she was an intelligent piece of cheese stuck between two stupid pieces of bread.  

[rr2911]

Survivor is a game or supposed to be a game that contestants outwit, outplay and outlast each other to be the lone survivor.  Maryann has done none of those.  It took 23 days until she made any kind of move.  Maryann is dangerous, but not for her overall game play, because she doesn't have any.  She is dangerous because she got Omar out, who was one of the favorites to win.  The jury will see this quirky goofy young girl who didn't do anything all season, suddenly make a big move late in the game, even though Lindsey, Mike, and Jonathon have all played better games overall.  Romeo is the only one that has played a lesser game than Maryann.  So, the others should come together to get Maryann out of the game.  Who is going to want to sit next to her in the final 3?  No one would have a chance!  I hope they somehow make Maryann feel "comfortable" and blindside her.  That would be awesome!  I might have a beer if that happens, and I don't drink!  🤣  

[Michichick]

2 hours ago, 30 Helens said:

I didn’t understand why anyone with a Shot in the Dark wouldn’t play it tonight. Since it was expiring, why not? Nobody should ever feel that secure.

If you use the Shot in the Dark, you don’t get to vote. I wouldn’t give up my vote unless I thought the majority was against me.

[JudyObscure]

7 hours ago, bankerchick said:

ETA:  Drea is stunning.  Like, wow.

I've been saying that all season and now with a little make-up she's really bringing the dazzle.

6 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I just didn't understand why Mike was so afraid if Lindsey did play her idol for Omar.  Because he had an idol.  He acted like he was gone if Omar was safe.  At worst, Jonathan was gone and Mike would lose what he considered his shield.  But again, why is Mike such a threat?  How many times has his name been written down?  

 Mike is only a threat in his own mind.  I don't find him likeable at all, he interrupts and talks over people. Maryanne has my total respect for not hitting him with a coconut while she was trying to talk sense to him. I'd like to see him in the final three getting zero votes.

[violet and green]

Oh that was satisfying. I enjoyed Omar's moves, but getting him out now was the right thing to do, and it was made even more worth it by wiping the smile off Lindsay's face!

It was so sweet when Maryann said defiantly, I am not a goat to be herded. What a great, confident, determined move by her.

Mike and Jonathan might be lunkheads, but I like them and hope they both get to the end somehow.

[cowgirlwen]

8 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

So both Mike and Maryanne have idols that I imagine they have to play at F5, correct? Which means the next cut is going to be Jonathan, Mike or Lindsay. 

You mean Romeo?

 

[AntFTW]

9 hours ago, North of Eden said:

Speaking of Romeo with so many idols in play he best pray Johnathan doesn't win immunity or will be the lease suspensful tribal council in history.

There would still be Lindsey. You think they would vote for Romeo over Lindsey?

She’s more of a threat to win over Romeo. Romeo literally did nothing the entire game. He hung out in the wilderness for a few weeks and that’s it. He’s the ultimate goat.

[Taeolas]

7 hours ago, 30 Helens said:

I didn’t understand why anyone with a Shot in the Dark wouldn’t play it tonight. Since it was expiring, why not? Nobody should ever feel that secure.

 

I love MaryAnne, but I’m a little concerned for her. Until now, everyone seemed to view her as an inconsequential little weirdo, a goat at best. But with this move, she’s revealed herself as a real player with strategic thoughts. I hope this isn’t her undoing, because I want her to win.

 

Shot in the Dark is a double risk. You play it and you get a low chance of getting immunity. AND you throw away all control you have in the votes since you also lose your vote, meaning you would have to rely on your allies to vote someone you need out. And we've seen how well THAT can work out in previous Tribal Councils. So yeah, most of the time when your advantage is about to expire, it's usually better to use it before you lose it, Shot in the Dark is something you are best to leave on the table unless you're really at risk and have no other safeties. 

 

As for MaryAnne's move, she still has an Idol in her pocket, which is probably only good for the next TC, so she (and Mike) have got Final 4 locked in. At this point only Romeo is locked in for Final 4, but since MaryAnne brought him in for tonight's upset, that may put him on her side for the final TC to get to Final 3. Or he may vote against her because he sees her as a threat; it's tough to say. 

[Chicago Redshirt]

6 hours ago, rr2911 said:

Survivor is a game or supposed to be a game that contestants outwit, outplay and outlast each other to be the lone survivor.  Maryann has done none of those.  It took 23 days until she made any kind of move.  Maryann is dangerous, but not for her overall game play, because she doesn't have any.  She is dangerous because she got Omar out, who was one of the favorites to win.  The jury will see this quirky goofy young girl who didn't do anything all season, suddenly make a big move late in the game, even though Lindsey, Mike, and Jonathon have all played better games overall.  Romeo is the only one that has played a lesser game than Maryann.  So, the others should come together to get Maryann out of the game.  Who is going to want to sit next to her in the final 3?  No one would have a chance!  I hope they somehow make Maryann feel "comfortable" and blindside her.  That would be awesome!  I might have a beer if that happens, and I don't drink!  🤣  

Well by definition Maryanne has outlasted everybody already on the jury or the pre-jury. So she has done at least SOME of that.

She and Drea put their foot down and forced Tori out by using their idols. That's some kind of move, even if some people are uncomfortable with how or why she did it.

As is often said, there are various aspects to Survivor. Maryanne is not a challenge beast (although I seem to recall she did do alright on a puzzle or two in the past). But another aspect of the game is the social game. And it seems like there, she excels. She has gotten everyone to be comfortable with her to the point that no one has even suggested writing her name down post-merge. And she hasn't really made any mistakes that I can think of.

It doesn't matter who you or I or this entire board or the Survivor viewership thinks has played a better game. What matters is what the jury members think. My guess is a lot of them are going to value Maryanne's quiet but non-challenge beast game even in the face of the above-and-beyond challenge performances of someone like Jonathan or Lindsay. 

If Maryanne gets to the end, I project that she is almost certainly going to have the votes of Chanelle, Drea, Rocksroy, and probably Omar. Now is some of that because most of those people are Black? I'll admit that is a possible factor. But I also think that pure likeability goes a long way. And although the jury members may feel differently, the show has made her seem like to them, she's the most likeable of the remaining contestants. I could easily see Hai and Tori voting Maryanne as well. 

Jonathan can boast 2-3 individual immunity wins, his constant help around the camp being one of the reasons why Taku was able to bring 4 members to the merge, and a generally nice demeanor. That's great! He's got a good shot. But the show has also suggested that he's a sexist mansplainer who can snap when challenged and abandoned the "Aw, shucks Mr. Jeff" persona that he has most of the time.

Mike is another likely candidate for only 0 votes at a FTC if he gets there. He tried to play as a man of his word, but he broke his word several times. He was behind the ouster of Hai and Drea, true. But I look forward to Omar flying off the top rope and telling the jury that it was he who manipulated Mike into wanting Hai gone on a complete lie. I think anyone who might be inclined to vote Mike will probably abandon him after that. 

Lindsay has two individual immunity wins and being part of the Taku four on her resume. But she also made a big misplay in not using her necklace to save Omar at literally no cost to herself other than the possibility that it would be reseeded for someone to find. She was not effective in getting Jonathan out even though she has fervently wanted that for a while. I think those flaws are going to make it hard for her to be the Sole Survivor.

Of course, there's still quite a bit of game to be played, but with Maryanne and Mike being locks for final 4 due to idols and with the conventional wisdom saying bring Romeo along as a goat, it seems most likely that either Jonathan or Lindsay is going to get called for jury duty. 

And then the remaining of Jonathan/Lindsay is most likely going to win the final immunity challenge, save Romeo for F3 and make Maryanne and Mike battle it out in a firemaking challenge. Which will have Peachy or someone make a comment like "Let's see if Mike is as good at starting fires as he is putting them out" because how could you resist?

1 hour ago, cowgirlwen said:

You mean Romeo?

 

Whoops, shouldn't have included Mike twice. I went back and edited my comment. Like some of the other posters here, I think Romeo has an express pass to the F3 because there is little likelihood anyone would vote for him to win a million dollars. He doesn't seem to be well liked. About the only comments that have been conveyed about him is that he's a lazy rice-stealer. He hasn't got any true allies. He hasn't initiated any moves He hasn't been particularly successful at any challenges that I can recall. So his Survivor resume is basically a blank page other than "Helped blindside Omar."

10 hours ago, North of Eden said:

So the lunkheads stuck to their guns to vote Romeo but Maryanne went roguwith her two votes pulled in Romeo. Well played. Well played.

Speaking of Romeo with so many idols in play he best pray Johnathan doesn't win immunity or will be the lease suspensful tribal council in history.

Whew I can rest easy...a great season would have been ruined if Omar was crowned the winner on finale night. I haven't liked him for a while now with his cockiness and what he did to Drea left him dead to me after last week.

Hard to say who is going to win if you have a combination of Johnathan, Lindsey and Maryanne sitting in the final three spots.

 

My forecast

Jonathan/Lindsay/Romeo: probably a close vote that is something like 5-3 that could go either in Jonathan or Lindsay's favor

Jonathan/Mike/Romeo: Probably a clean 8-0 sweep for Jonathan.

Jonathan/Maryanne/Romeo: Probably 5-3 or 6-2 in favor of Maryanne. (In addition to Chanelle, Drea and Rocksroy, I think that Maryanne gets Lindsay's vote, possibly Hai, possibly Omar and Tori's. Jonathan gets Mike's vote and maybe Omar or Tori's)

Lindsay/Maryanne/Romeo: Probably 6-2 or 7-1 in favor of Maryanne. (Jonathan is the main person who I could see voting for Lindsay out of respect for her competitive success.)

Mike/Maryanne/Romeo: Possibly a clean 8-0 sweep for Maryanne. 

Mike/Lindsay/Romeo: Probably a 6-2 or 7-1 in favor of Lindsay.

I don't think there is a meaningful likelihood that Romeo doesn't make the F3 at this point. 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Chicago Redshirt

[AntFTW]

7 hours ago, Mediocre Gatsby said:

I thought I was done seeing Jonathan and Mike mansplaining things, but nope! One more time! Good for Maryanne. The jury looked thrilled, and Lindsey looked flabbergasted. 

Even if Mike had been right about Lindsey giving her amulet to Omar, Maryanne would have been happy with the likely Jonathan revote. I just hate the way they barely gave her plan the courtesy of a cursory hearing. 

But that's information only Maryanne knew. Only Maryanne knew that Maryanne would be okay and happy whichever way the vote went.

Maryanne can't tell Jonathan and Mike that she's happy with a revote between Romeo and Jonathan. If Maryanne took the risk and it failed, she's not being voted out anyway. Additionally, she's the only one that knows she's safe for the next TC with her idol if they choose to target her next after this hypothetically failed plan. Maryanne, regardless of the outcome of her plan, is sitting in a good position right now.

Jonathan, understandably IMO, doesn't want to go with that plan because the plan puts him at risk. If Lindsey plays her amulet for Omar, then Jonathan's gone. That's too big of a risk for him. Maryanne loses nothing with this plan. It's only upside for her and that's why she pushes for it. She gets to make a big game move and take out a favorite, and if it doesn't work, she doesn't get voted out. However, Jonathan can be voted out if her plan fails so his stubbornness and unwillingness to listen is understandable, imo. Mike also felt he was on the chopping block. Mike also thought that if her plan failed, he would have to use his idol, which he doesn't want to do, or that Jonathan would be voted out, which he doesn't want to happen. At the end of it all, no one could have said with absolute certainty that Lindsey wasn't going to play her amulet for Omar.

On one end, Maryanne has an extra vote, this TC is the last time she can play it, and she absolutely wants to use it. On the other end, Lindsey has an amulet, the last time she could play it is also this TC, she doesn't need it, and no one has any real idea whether she's going to use it for Omar or not. That's a tough one to navigate.

Edited May 19, 2022 by AntFTW

[susannot]

8 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

But that's information only Maryanne knew. Only Maryanne knew that Maryanne would be okay and happy whichever way the vote went.

 

And that's why MaryAnne is playing a great game.  She didn't make Drea's fatal mistake.  She has told no one about her idol.  And it's a real idol, unlike Mike's which is still questionable.  So here she is, a lock for Final 4.  I don't know how anyone can say she has not done anything deserving of the win.  Her game shows that playing your cards close to you vest can be a winning strategy.

[AntFTW]

2 minutes ago, susannot said:

And it's a real idol, unlike Mike's which is still questionable.

Mike's idol is real. He found it pre-merge.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

But that's information only Maryanne knew. Only Maryanne knew that Maryanne would be okay and happy whichever way the vote went.

Maryanne can't tell Jonathan and Mike that she's happy a revote between Romeo and Jonathan. If Maryanne took the risk and it failed, she's not being voted out anyway. Additionally, she's the only one that knows she's safe for the next TC with her idol if they choose to target her next after this hypothetically failed plan. Maryanne, regardless of the outcome of her plan, is sitting in a good position right now.

Jonathan, understandably IMO, doesn't want to go with that plan because the plan puts him at risk. If Lindsey plays her amulet for Omar, then Jonathan's gone. That's too big of a risk for him. Maryanne loses nothing with this plan. It's only upside for her and that's why she pushes for it. She gets to make a big game move and take out a favorite, and if it doesn't work, she doesn't get voted out. However, Jonathan can be voted out if her plan fails so his stubbornness and unwillingness to listen is understandable, imo. Mike also felt he was on the chopping block. Mike also thought that if her plan failed, he would have to use his idol, which he doesn't want to do, or that Jonathan was voted out, which he doesn't want to happen. At the end of it all, no one could have said with absolute certainty that Lindsey wasn't going to play her amulet for Omar.

On one end, Maryanne has an extra vote, this TC is the last time she can play it, and she absolutely wants to use it. On the other end, Lindsey has an amulet, the last time she could play it is also this TC, she doesn't need it, and no one has any real idea whether she's going to use it for Omar or not. That's a tough one to navigate.

It didn't help Maryanne's case that she said to Mike at least twice, "I can't promise you anything right now." I'm no big fan of Mike or Jonathan, but I can't really blame them for being skeptical. Maryanne's desire to take out Omar was absolutely correct, and she pulled it off so props to her, but her argument of how it would work simply seemed to be "trust me", at least as we saw it.

 

Just now, susannot said:

12 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

But that's information only Maryanne knew. Only Maryanne knew that Maryanne would be okay and happy whichever way the vote went.

 

And that's why MaryAnne is playing a great game.  She didn't make Drea's fatal mistake.  She has told no one about her idol.  And it's a real idol, unlike Mike's which is still questionable.  So here she is, a lock for Final 4.  I don't know how anyone can say she has not done anything deserving of the win.  Her game shows that playing your cards close to you vest can be a winning strategy.

I don't think the argument here is that Maryanne didn't do something impressive. It's just questioning the idea that Mike and Jonathan should have rolled over and gone with her plan without debate.

[Taeolas]

As far as MaryAnne's gameplay goes, I think a lot of us were influenced by how she played the Tridol Advantage. That was an advantage she couldn't hide from her Tribemates, and it made her have to say a goofy phrase to activate; so she played up the goofy factor early on, which (at least as far as the editing goes) made us underestimate her more than we might have otherwise.  And once the Tridols were activated, she knew the rest of her tribe (and probably everyone) knew she had it; so burning it when she did made a bit of sense. 

 

But as we've seen, she hid her second vote advantage almost to the very end. And she's kept her second immunity idol extra hidden so far as well. I suspect in game she may have been seen as a goofy goat to be dragged along and eliminated at will later (if it came down to her or Romeo for example), maybe eliminate sooner because her charisma may make her dangerous.... and in the pen-penultimate TC, she makes this huge move, showing her second vote and knocking out a major manipulator. And I think her hidden immunity idol is going to be another blindside next week as well since she's got a huge target now for taking out Omar. 

 

Of course, she still has  to survive Final 4 which will be a bit iffy. But should be entertaining in any case. 

[pennben]

20 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

But that's information only Maryanne knew. Only Maryanne knew that Maryanne would be okay and happy whichever way the vote went.

Knowledge Is Power!!  Indeed. 

[AntFTW]

1 minute ago, tracyscott76 said:

It didn't help Maryanne's case that she said to Mike at least twice, "I can't promise you anything right now." I'm no big fan of Mike or Jonathan, but I can't really blame them for being skeptical. Maryanne's desire to take out Omar was absolutely correct, and she pulled it off so props to her, but her argument of how it would work simply seemed to be "trust me", at least as we saw it.

Right! I agree.

I'm happy she took the shot. It's Survivor. Always take the shot if you think you won't miss. However, if I'm Mike or Jonathan, that plan is too big of a risk for me so I will play it safe and target the most vulnerable player, which is Romeo. Romeo has no allies. No one is giving Romeo an idol and everyone knows he doesn't have one. He would have played it already if he did.

[jsm1125]

13 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

Mike's idol is real. He found it pre-merge.

I don’t think the show cares that Mike didn’t say the phrase at the first immunity challenge after finding the beware. So I agree that the show considers the idol real. 

[violet and green]

I can't fault either Jonathan or Mike for not leaping on Maryanne's plan - which revolved around the possibility of Lindsay definitely not playing her amulet idol for Omar, her ally - when blindly trusting what Maryanne said would be so might mean either of them being voted out, Mike with an unplayed idol in his pocket. Voting out Romeo, however, was a safe if boring bet.

Maryanne was all about weighing up her pros and cons and telling Mike, I'll think about it, when he tried to get her to go along with his plans to get Omar out now, earlier. If Lindsay had taken her less for granted she may well have fallen in with the vote out Jonathan now plan instead. It seemed to be hurt feelings at being out of the loop with Lindsay over the amulet idol's existence that galvanised Maryanne. And I'm glad it did!

If Mike's plan had just gone ahead, then he'd be getting the credit for masterminding the Omar blindside...

Edited May 19, 2022 by violet and green
edit to add

[AntFTW]

5 minutes ago, jsm1125 said:

I don’t think the show cares that Mike didn’t say the phrase at the first immunity challenge after finding the beware. So I agree that the show considers the idol real. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think he had to say the phrase at the first immunity challenge after finding it. I was under the impression that the phrases could be said any time before the merge (assuming that all idols were found) and when all three phases were said at the same time at an immunity challenge, the idol's power activates.

Eventually, they all said their phrases at the same time. Additionally, the think idol's power activated at the merge regardless of whether the phrases were said or not.

Edited May 19, 2022 by AntFTW

[Sarahsmile416]

5 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

Right! I agree.

I'm happy she took the shot. It's Survivor. Always take the shot if you think you won't miss. However, if I'm Mike or Jonathan, that plan is too big of a risk for me so I will play it safe and target the most vulnerable player, which is Romeo. Romeo has no allies. No one is giving Romeo an idol and everyone knows he doesn't have one. He would have played it already if he did.

Correct! I’m so glad these things have been said.  I truly don’t think Jonathan and Mike not liking her plan can be put down to them being sexist (this time!).  If I were Jonathan I would not like the plan either - they can’t know that Lindsay would not give her idol to Omar.  For their game, voting for Romeo was the best option.  Mary Anne knew she was safe so she could go for the riskier move…Jonathan and Mike couldn’t afford to do that.  Really my only question is that was the split by design - did they agree to split the vote and let Mary Anne and Romeo vote for Omar? Or was that an independent decision on Mike and Jonathan’s part?

[fishcakes]

Aw hell, I've been rooting for Omar almost since the beginning, but he's played the most strategic game out there this season, so Maryanne was right to go after him. And he was so delighted that she got him! "Did you do it?" "I did it!" and smiles all around. I especially loved how he patted Jonathan on the cheek. A little ironic that Maryanne was the agent of his ouster, since earlier in the game, although no one was really targeting her, she was considered expendable, and Omar did what he could to steer people away from that because he wanted to be able to keep her (first) HII in reserve and I think he also knew about her extra vote, although I wouldn't swear to that. I seem to remember him mentioning it once, though.

Lindsay should have played her idol on Omar. Even if it's reasonable to assume that it would be rehidden (uncertain since this isn't a regular idol), idols expire at F5, and the F5 TC is the very next day. So someone would have to find it, compete in the immunity challenge, and be around camp enough to be looped in on the next vote all in one day, which is not impossible, but it would be difficult.

It's unlikely that anyone tries to vote out Romeo at this point, but it could happen if the others get on a "only worthy players at the end" jag. Once his original alliance dropped him at the merge, and every conversation he tried to have with anyone got him tagged as paranoid and made him even more of a target, I think Romeo played the only game they let him play, which was to lie low and hope. I do love his tiny rebellion of stealing extra bits of rice with a look of pure hatred on his face while doing so. He earned that level of petty. In any case, I think he's a lock for F4, as are Maryanne and Mike due to their idols, and there's something great about Maryanne and Romeo, who were left out of the giant alliance of 8 at the merge, getting to the end.

Edited May 19, 2022 by fishcakes

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think he had to say the phrase at the first immunity challenge after finding it. I was under the impression that the phrases could be said any time before the merge (assuming that all idols were found) and when all three phases were said at the same time at an immunity challenge, the idol's power activates.

Eventually, they all said their phrases at the same time. Additionally, the think idol's power activated at the merge regardless of whether the phrases were said or not.

This has been a matter of great debate, to say the least. 😆 The wording of the instructions said "to activate the idol, you must say the phrase at the next immunity challenge." This has been interpreted by some as a literal decree that at the very next challenge after finding the idol, you have to say the phrase or you lose your chance to activate it forever. Since Mike did not do this, his idol is no good.

Others see an implied "if and when you want to activate the idol, you must say the phrase at the next immunity challenge." In that case, Mike's idol is good.

Then there are those who think the producers meant it the first way initially, but are rolling with the loophole that Daniel and Mike found of not saying the phrase until you wanted to.

We won't know for sure until Mike plays it.

[peachmangosteen]

10 minutes ago, fishcakes said:

... Omar did what he could to steer people away from that because he wanted to be able to keep her (first) HII in reserve and I think he also knew about her extra vote, although I wouldn't swear to that. I seem to remember him mentioning it once, though.

I think all of orange knew Maryanne had an extra vote, didn't they?

Quote

It's unlikely that anyone tries to vote out Romeo at this point, but it could happen if the others get on a "only worthy players at the end" jag. Once his original alliance dropped him at the merge, and every conversation he tried to have with anyone got him tagged as paranoid and made him even more of a target, I think Romeo played the only game they let him play, which was to lie low and hope. I do love his tiny rebellion of stealing extra bits of rice with a look of pure hatred on his face while doing so. He earned that level of petty. In any case, I think he's a lock for F4, as are Maryanne and Mike due to their idols, and there's something great about Maryanne and Romeo, who were left out of the giant alliance of 8 at the merge, getting to the end.

This! Romeo and Maryanne teaming up after being left out and looked down on to take out the biggest threat in the game is the kind of shit I love.

[fishcakes]

3 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I think all of orange knew Maryanne had an extra vote, didn't they?

That's what I thought, but so many people here are saying no one knew about her extra vote, so now I'm not sure.

[AntFTW]

14 minutes ago, tracyscott76 said:

This has been a matter of great debate, to say the least. 😆 The wording of the instructions said "to activate the idol, you must say the phrase at the next immunity challenge."

Taught me something new 😂

I don't really remember the instructions exactly but I thought the consequence for not saying the phrases was losing their votes, no?

14 minutes ago, tracyscott76 said:

We won't know for sure until Mike plays it.

That would be awesome if it's worthless 🤣

Edited May 19, 2022 by AntFTW

[watch2much]

8 hours ago, EllenB said:

I didn't see Omar as cocky or over-confident. I thought he was so thrilled to be playing, and playing better than he expected himself to, that he was basically squee-ing in his TH's. As much as I wanted him to win, that was a great move voting him out, which he also seemed to appreciate. I will never understand players - or fans - who take it personally when a player maneuvers the TC to oust someone. I liked Drea, too, but Omar's move last week was great. The complaints about plays that eliminate someone's favorite are nearly as annoying as the players who think they deserve to win so how DARE anyone else play with the same goal in mind. This season has less of that, at least with most of the players.

I was a big Omar fan at first.  but then there seemed to be a "meanness" in his moves.  calling Mike a puppet with Omar controlling the strings....you could almost see him twirling a mustached while he contemplated whether to change things to another person because he had all the power....it got to be a bit much.  I don't begrudge him his moves, they were great, but he did get a tad obnoxious.

[LizBug]

Romeo was thrilled to be included in a strategic planning conversation (at last!!); and his vote really counted.  Good job, MaryAnne!!

[peachmangosteen]

2 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

I don't really remember the instructions exactly but I thought the consequence for not saying the phrases was losing their votes, no?

The consequence of opening it is losing your vote.

[Taeolas]

7 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

I think all of orange knew Maryanne had an extra vote, didn't they?

 

I honestly don't remember. I wonder if there's been so many advantages in play that the other Survivors may have forgotten as well. We did have a scene last night with MaryAnne telling Romeo she had the extra vote, but Romeo wasn't Team Orange so he was out of the loop as usual. 

The others may have figured that either MaryAnne had already played her extra vote and it didn't matter (one of the votes Jeff didn't reveal for example) or that if she's going along with their plans, it is just extra gravy for their elimination plans in general. 

[AntFTW]

4 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

The consequence of opening it is losing your vote.

Also, didn't the same apply to Drea's idol? Didn't she also wait to say her phrase? My memory is ass on this show!

Edited May 19, 2022 by AntFTW

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

Also, didn't the same apply to Drea's idol? Didn't she also wait to say her phrase? My memory is ass on this show!

Drea said her phrase at the next immunity challenge after she found it. Full disclosure: I had to look it up.

[simplyme]

I'm just glad Omar invited Romeo for cake. 

[AntFTW]

1 minute ago, tracyscott76 said:

Drea said her phrase at the next immunity challenge after she found it. Full disclosure: I had to look it up.

Me too! I literally just looked it up 🤣

[Birnam Wood]

My ten-year-old wandered in during the immunity challenge and asked me why none of the competitors were telling the loud guy in the blue shirt to SHUT UP.

[Guest]

Just now, Birnam Wood said:

My ten-year-old wandered in during the immunity challenge and asked me why none of the competitors were telling the loud guy in the blue shirt to SHUT UP.

I cracked up during the reward challenge, when Jeff said something like "sometimes you just want to listen to the sounds of the challenge." And we were treated to the riveting *thunk* *thunk* of puzzle pieces sliding down the supports.

[AntFTW]

6 minutes ago, tracyscott76 said:

Drea said her phrase at the next immunity challenge after she found it. Full disclosure: I had to look it up.

So the consensus is that Mike's idol may be worthless because the instructions say he had to say the phrase at the next immunity challenge, which he did not do, for his idol to have power. That makes sense. I missed that part of the instructions entirely the first time around. In that case, I agree with @jsm1125, it seems like they threw that out the window. They don't seem to care.

This is thrilling! I'm all in! Now I really want him to play it.

[violet and green]

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

But I also think that pure likeability goes a long way.

 

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Mike is another likely candidate for only 0 votes at a FTC if he gets there.

Funny you say that, as Mike is the most likeable player, going by exit interviews.

[rr2911]

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Well by definition Maryanne has outlasted everybody already on the jury or the pre-jury. So she has done at least SOME of that.

She and Drea put their foot down and forced Tori out by using their idols. That's some kind of move, even if some people are uncomfortable with how or why she did it.

As is often said, there are various aspects to Survivor. Maryanne is not a challenge beast (although I seem to recall she did do alright on a puzzle or two in the past). But another aspect of the game is the social game. And it seems like there, she excels. She has gotten everyone to be comfortable with her to the point that no one has even suggested writing her name down post-merge. And she hasn't really made any mistakes that I can think of.

It doesn't matter who you or I or this entire board or the Survivor viewership thinks has played a better game. What matters is what the jury members think. My guess is a lot of them are going to value Maryanne's quiet but non-challenge beast game even in the face of the above-and-beyond challenge performances of someone like Jonathan or Lindsay. 

If Maryanne gets to the end, I project that she is almost certainly going to have the votes of Chanelle, Drea, Rocksroy, and probably Omar. Now is some of that because most of those people are Black? I'll admit that is a possible factor. But I also think that pure likeability goes a long way. And although the jury members may feel differently, the show has made her seem like to them, she's the most likeable of the remaining contestants. I could easily see Hai and Tori voting Maryanne as well. 

Jonathan can boast 2-3 individual immunity wins, his constant help around the camp being one of the reasons why Taku was able to bring 4 members to the merge, and a generally nice demeanor. That's great! He's got a good shot. But the show has also suggested that he's a sexist mansplainer who can snap when challenged and abandoned the "Aw, shucks Mr. Jeff" persona that he has most of the time.

Mike is another likely candidate for only 0 votes at a FTC if he gets there. He tried to play as a man of his word, but he broke his word several times. He was behind the ouster of Hai and Drea, true. But I look forward to Omar flying off the top rope and telling the jury that it was he who manipulated Mike into wanting Hai gone on a complete lie. I think anyone who might be inclined to vote Mike will probably abandon him after that. 

Lindsay has two individual immunity wins and being part of the Taku four on her resume. But she also made a big misplay in not using her necklace to save Omar at literally no cost to herself other than the possibility that it would be reseeded for someone to find. She was not effective in getting Jonathan out even though she has fervently wanted that for a while. I think those flaws are going to make it hard for her to be the Sole Survivor.

Of course, there's still quite a bit of game to be played, but with Maryanne and Mike being locks for final 4 due to idols and with the conventional wisdom saying bring Romeo along as a goat, it seems most likely that either Jonathan or Lindsay is going to get called for jury duty. 

And then the remaining of Jonathan/Lindsay is most likely going to win the final immunity challenge, save Romeo for F3 and make Maryanne and Mike battle it out in a firemaking challenge. Which will have Peachy or someone make a comment like "Let's see if Mike is as good at starting fires as he is putting them out" because how could you resist?

 

Good post and I thank you!  Even though I don't agree with you on Maryanne, I appreciate that your response was not argumentative.   

Edited May 19, 2022 by rr2911

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, AntFTW said:

So the consensus is that Mike's idol may be worthless because the instructions say he had to say the phrase at the next immunity challenge, which he did not do, for his idol to have power. That makes sense. I missed that part of the instructions entirely the first time around. In that case, I agree with @jsm1125, it seems like they threw that out the window. They don't seem to care.

This is thrilling! I'm all in! Now I really want him to play it.

I wouldn't say it's the consensus. Just one take on the situation. I'm just ready for it to be resolved one way or the other, so we can stop talking about it.

5 minutes ago, violet and green said:

Funny you say that, as Mike is the most likeable player, going by exit interviews.

Also according to Mike himself in this episode 😆

[AntFTW]

2 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Like some of the other posters here, I think Romeo has an express pass to the F3 because there is little likelihood anyone would vote for him to win a million dollars. He doesn't seem to be well liked.

That appears to be mutual. Romeo doesn't seem to like the others as well. 🤣

[iMonrey]

Quote

They have not shown much in the way of Maryanne being goofy or tiresome or working the nerves of other players, and they have shown her articulating strategy better than the average bear. Seems like we have a winner, folks! 

Agreed. Based solely on the editing it does appear that Maryanne won this thing. She has never been shown to be arrogant (Jonathan, Mike) or over-confident (Lindsay, Omar) or useless (Romeo). She is constantly shown in a positive light. The producers clearly love her.

She did win me over with her strategic move this week, so I wouldn't hate it if she won. Game-wise, she deserves it, at least as much as anyone left. Personality-wise, though, I've never really warmed up to her. She reminds me a bit of Tai, in that they both have a certain child-like quality about them. While many may find that adorable, it's something I find rather off-putting in a grown adult. For what it's worth, it's somewhat less annoying to me in Maryanne than it was in Tai.

[ljenkins782]

10 hours ago, jabRI said:

My thoughts exactly. If it's going to expire anyway, just use it. Arrogance.  I LOVED Omar, so nice to see a positive image of a Muslim on TV, and open to discussing his religion with patience and openness. But I totally agree with Marianne that it was time for him to go. If he were to be in the finals, I could see lots of votes for him. He played a quality game, lots of power moves without making enemies.  And it was good for him to be self-aware that he went in tonight with Survivor confidence, never a good thing.  And I don't get why Mike wanted to vote out Romeo, the weakest player in the final 5, he's no threat to anyone.

I really didn't understand Lindsay's fear that an idol would be rehidden. First of all, hers wasn't a regular idol, it was that stupid amulet thing. So she took a risk on day 1 to get this advantage, outlasted both of the other holders to give hers the ultimate power...and then she sits on it? Second, there are so few people left, idols stop being hidden at some point. And third, if hers was expiring anyway, who's to say they wouldn't hide another one if they were inclined to introduce another idol into the game. Whether she plays it or it expires, it's still dead.

Now if it turns out that Lindsay spun the "we don't want them hiding another one" story for Omar because she wanted him out without embittering him, then I could respect that. But I suspect that isn't the case.

As for Romeo, the only threat he poses at this point is that he's everybody's #1 pick to sit next to so somebody's gonna fall short of F3 so his bony ass can take up space at the final tribal. I could also see Mike being one of those players who finds it dishonorable to bring a goat to the end, so maybe he wants Romeo out so the ending can be a fight to the finish. 

With all these twists and tweaks to the game that they keep pulling out, I wish there was a way to discourage goat herding. I understand it as a strategy, but it would be more exciting if everyone sitting at the end had a real shot at winning. 

[KeithJ]

For Maryanne's sake, I hope she can make fire.  I don't see any way of her winning the final four challenge and the remaining three would be stupid to take her to the final with them.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, ljenkins782 said:

I really didn't understand Lindsay's fear that an idol would be rehidden. First of all, hers wasn't a regular idol, it was that stupid amulet thing. So she took a risk on day 1 to get this advantage, outlasted both of the other holders to give hers the ultimate power...and then she sits on it? Second, there are so few people left, idols stop being hidden at some point. And third, if hers was expiring anyway, who's to say they wouldn't hide another one if they were inclined to introduce another idol into the game. Whether she plays it or it expires, it's still dead.

Well in fairness to Lindsay (I'll be the one lol), at that point she had already seen Turn Back Time, Do Or Die, 3-way idols activated by bunnies and potatoes, and the Escalating in Power Amulet that got her her idol in the first place. So from her perspective, who tf knows what they might do?

23 minutes ago, ljenkins782 said:

Now if it turns out that Lindsay spun the "we don't want them hiding another one" story for Omar because she wanted him out without embittering him, then I could respect that. But I suspect that isn't the case.

I also doubt Lindsay not giving her idol to Omar was some sort of play to get him out (though Gordon Holmes in his recap seems to be going with this theory). I believe she gave the re-hiding logic to us in an interview, not just to Omar's face, and her surprise when he was booted seemed genuine.

Lindsay did get complacent in not giving her idol to Omar and assuming that the others would want Jonathan out like she did, but I don't see these as entitled acts that make her somehow unlikeable or unrootable. I'm not giving up on her. This is just making me root harder for her to recover, though my confidence in her likelihood of winning is somewhat shaken.

[ljenkins782]

11 minutes ago, tracyscott76 said:

Well in fairness to Lindsay (I'll be the one lol), at that point she had already seen Turn Back Time, Do Or Die, 3-way idols activated by bunnies and potatoes, and the Escalating in Power Amulet that got her her idol in the first place. So from her perspective, who tf knows what they might do?

I also doubt Lindsay not giving her idol to Omar was some sort of play to get him out (though Gordon Holmes in his recap seems to be going with this theory). I believe she gave the re-hiding logic to us in an interview, not just to Omar's face, and her surprise when he was booted seemed genuine.

Lindsay did get complacent in not giving her idol to Omar and assuming that the others would want Jonathan out like she did, but I don't see these as entitled acts that make her somehow unlikeable or unrootable. I'm not giving up on her. This is just making me root harder for her to recover, though my confidence in her likelihood of winning is somewhat shaken.

LOL, when you put it like that, yeah, I guess it probably did seem like anything can happen anytime. But I still think it was silly not to use it if only for all she went through to get it and activate its power as an idol. And she didn't need it for herself so she could have leveraged it in so many ways, it was a shame to see it fizzle. And I liked Omar so I was hoping he could be saved, but the editing in the episode was anvilicious as they come, way too many shots of Omar throwing his head back and laughing with seeming confidence. It couldn't have been clearer that he was toast.

[DEL901]

I thought it was interesting that, once again, Jonathan saw through a lie and was able to convince Lindsey/Hai he didn’t.   He may not be much of a strategist, but he can Suess out lies.