S37: David vs. Goliath: Previews & Speculation without Spoilers

[peachmangosteen]

2 hours ago, Mark2 said:

The last preview shared above implies that all the Davids will know about the vote stealer, but I don't recall Carl sharing his nullifier advantage with anyone.

Carl told Nick for sure. We were shown that. I assume he told Davie as well, but I can't remember if we saw that or not.

Edited November 20, 2018 by peachmangosteen

[LadyChatts]

I don't think Alec wants to work with the Goliaths, but last week didn't have a choice.  Him telling Nick about the Christian vote I felt was jury management, or to not let him lose complete trust in him down the road.  I do wonder where Allison's head is at.  She may be close to Mike, but maybe she's regretting going with the Goliaths?  Now with John gone that might change the dynamic with the remaining Goliaths.  Angelina wants to blindside Dan, and Allison has said the same, so I don't think they care to let him loose down the road.  

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I can't wait to see who they pick, how much info crosses tribal lines, and how that affects Dan's idol decision.  Not saying it'll happen, but a true blindside would be the Davids floating a rumor between a plausibly strong cross-tribal bond - maybe the reverse of last week, Nick telling Alec - that they're voting for Angelina.  When in fact they're voting for Dan.  But then Alec tells Nick that Kara knows Dan has an HII.  LOL.  So they change to voting off Alec, in case Dan plays it for himself.  Dan protects Angelina and wastes the HII, again, and Alec is out :D

This might be a way for them to test someone like Alec.  Tell Alec they are voting one way, see if he tells the Goliaths and then they vote another way, and see if an idol comes out of hiding to save the person they originally said they were voting for.  Especially if they decide to throw it out about the vote steal ahead of time to maybe try and get some intel from the Goliaths about what they are trying to do.  I don't know, I just hope this is an exciting TC week and that one (or both, if needed) of the Davids advantages are used right.

Quote

They were running promos hyping that ep big time.

I only saw a couple of promos and they were just generic, but I don't really watch CBS and can't always find all the promos online (even in screen shots on other sites).  I haven't seen any this week that indicate something big like the nullifier being used but they might not want to give that away in a promo anyway, because it'd be easy to figure out that's what happens if they talk about some big unexpected TC.  We do see Kara looking like she wants to flip on Dan, so there's that.  The funny thing about the Davids is, they seem to be sticking together because they have to.  If there wasn't a line in the sand drawn by the Goliaths, I don't think they'd care as much to work together.  Christian/Nick/Gabby already made that side alliance with Alec, and Davie/Carl are close but don't have anyone else.

Edited November 20, 2018 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

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I only saw a couple of promos and they were just generic, but I don't really watch CBS and can't always find all the promos online (even in screen shots on other sites).

They were showing promos during the CBS soaps promising an exciting ending. It was very hyped.

But it's hard to tell if the fact that they aren't doing that this week means it's a boring ep. Sometimes they hype big eps and sometimes they don't at all. 

[Mark2]

8 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

Carl told Nick for sure. We were shown that. I assume he told Davie as well, but I can't remember if we saw that or not.

I got to thinking...if it came to a re-vote in case of a tie, what would happen with the nullifier and vote steal?

It's logical that the nullifier could be used any time you have to write down a name.  So then, you could use it during a second round of voting, nullifying an idol that's already been played.  It's a little more ambiguous if the vote stealer applies to a second vote.

So in theory a minor miscalculation could cost the Davids if they/Carl choose to not play the nullifier off the bat...

[Special K]

15 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

They were showing promos during the CBS soaps promising an exciting ending. It was very hyped.

But it's hard to tell if the fact that they aren't doing that this week means it's a boring ep. Sometimes they hype big eps and sometimes they don't at all. 

Maybe they're trying to counteract the holiday fall-off in viewership.  Don't they usually have a clips-show/recap the night before Thanksgiving?

[ProfCrash]

4 minutes ago, Special K said:

Maybe they're trying to counteract the holiday fall-off in viewership.  Don't they usually have a clips-show/recap the night before Thanksgiving?

It has been a long time since they had a clip show the night before Thanksgiving but that was the tradition for a long time. I can't remember when they stopped, probably when they went to two seasons a year.

[marys1000]

I speculate at least one idol will be rehidden

  Pretty sure Dan, Davie and others  will be looking although its not always shown, unless someone actually finds it.  

It would be nice to see Angelina actually get off her ass and look since she made some noise about idols not being found by women

Edited November 21, 2018 by marys1000

[ProfCrash]

15 minutes ago, marys1000 said:

I speculate at least one idol will be rehidden

  Pretty sure Dan, Davie and others  will be looking although its not always shown, unless someone actually finds it.  

It would be nice to see Angelina actually get off her ass and look since she made some noise about idols not being found by women

We did see her looking for the idol after saying that but Dan found it. You said that the idol search is rarely shown unless it is found so it is possible that Angelina has been out looking for the idol and we have not seen it.

And she is right, I don't have the exact numbers but it has been discussed in plenty of places, women tend not to find the idols. I know one of the contestants who was voted out this season, I want to say Natalia, was asked about it and she commented that it is amazing how people fall into established gender roles which lead to the men heading out to fish and gather wood, making it easier for the men to find idols. Angelina did make an effort though.

[SVNBob]

50 minutes ago, Special K said:

Maybe they're trying to counteract the holiday fall-off in viewership.  Don't they usually have a clips-show/recap the night before Thanksgiving?

 

44 minutes ago, ProfCrash said:

It has been a long time since they had a clip show the night before Thanksgiving but that was the tradition for a long time. I can't remember when they stopped, probably when they went to two seasons a year.

Close.  The change happened when CBS moved Survivor to Wednesday from Thursday.  The clip show for the fall seasons then was on Thanksgiving Day.  Moving days meant there was no need for the holiday clip show, and no more conflict with March Madness.

[LadyChatts]

12 hours ago, Mark2 said:

I got to thinking...if it came to a re-vote in case of a tie, what would happen with the nullifier and vote steal?

It's logical that the nullifier could be used any time you have to write down a name.  So then, you could use it during a second round of voting, nullifying an idol that's already been played.  It's a little more ambiguous if the vote stealer applies to a second vote.

So in theory a minor miscalculation could cost the Davids if they/Carl choose to not play the nullifier off the bat...

I'm not sure what rules apply to the vote steal and if it could be used on a re-vote, but the nullifier has to be used during the vote and before the idol is applied.  Again, not sure if it can be used on a re-vote but I don't see why not as long as the idol hasn't been played.  I don't see there being a tie vote unless something really screwy happens with vote splits, or someone goes rogue and forces a tie.  I'm trying to think if this will work, but maybe the Goliaths figure force a possible tie, and get a David out on the re-vote since they'd still have numbers?  I can't believe they would actually do that and take a risk, but who knows.  That tribe seems more like the big moves tribe that underestimates the Davids.

Quote

 

They were showing promos during the CBS soaps promising an exciting ending. It was very hyped.

But it's hard to tell if the fact that they aren't doing that this week means it's a boring ep. Sometimes they hype big eps and sometimes they don't at all. 

 

As long as it's a Goliath going home I'm good.  I hope the Davids don't misfire with their advantages.  Nick should remember Fishbach arrogantly splitting his steal a vote between Joe and Abi and that leading to his ouster.

[MissEwa]

2 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Again, not sure if it can be used on a re-vote but I don't see why not as long as the idol hasn't been played.

You can't use an idol after a re-vote so you'd 100% be wasting it. 

[LadyChatts]

The preview made me nervous, because the Davids can not afford to vote one of their own members right now.  I hope this is just Gabby being overly emotional, and Carl just being a jackass over something stupid.

Angelina sure didn't seem too happy when she realized Alec and Kara wrote her name down.  She really doesn't get that she was at the bottom.

[LanceM]

So what is the misdirection in the promo next week?  Is it Angelina turning on the Goliaths?  Or Gabby turning on Carl?  Because we all know they love to do misdirection. If I had to speculate I am going to say that Gabby turning on Carl is the misdirection and that Angelina is going to flip on her old tribe.

[TVFan1]

Yeah, now is not the time for the Davids to turn on each other. The numbers are now even. I will be disappointed if the preview is not a misdirect. 

[LadyChatts]

2 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

Yeah, now is not the time for the Davids to turn on each other. The numbers are now even. I will be disappointed if the preview is not a misdirect. 

Me too.  Let them get through a couple more votes as a unit at least.  I think Christian is smart and will talk Gabby down, but Carl I'm more nervous about.  He refused to spare Elizabeth because he was mad about the Jessica vote, so if he and Gabby go at it enough, he might throw the Goliaths a life line to get rid of Gabby.

I hope it is Angelina voting against her old tribe.  My guess is she'll go after Kara/Alec/Alison because they voted against her, and Alison said something in the preview about it being a contingency plan.  Truthfully Alison is golden because she didn't vote, so Angelina has nothing to be angry at her about if Alison says she knew nothing.  But we saw during the Jeremy vote that when she has her mind made up she doesn't like to budge.  She almost killed her own game during the Elizabeth vote because she got mad over them not wanting to vote out Christian.  I can't even believe I am putting all my hopes on Angelina of all people next week!  Alec and Kara may be in her sights.

[LanceM]

Another preview for next weeks 2 episodes. Angelina and Christian working together?  

 

[Mark2]

7 minutes ago, Jextella said:

It really is a David vs. Goliath story, isn't it?  Cat and mouse, back and forth.   The David's are scrappy but they also have some smarts on the team.  Christian, of course, but also Nick, an attorney,  Davey who is impressing me at every turn, and Gabby.   I think Carl is quietly smart...

Above from Ep09 thread

As much as I like them, TBH the David's have luck and Goliath shortcomings to thank as much as their own abilities.  No info on Christian from Alec, would they have seen a Christian vote coming?  Or the luck of Carl being the one who was exiled and find the nullifier?

But to the point on "smarts" and how it relates to tonight's vote...the use of the nullifier and finally settling on Dan was the safe choice.  Picking, say, Kara or Mike and saving the nullifier would be the higher risk, higher reward choice.  So if using it was a group decision, between Nick, Christian, Carl, and Davie, who do you think had the most to do with [the safe choice of] playing it now?  Or Gabby, but she seems too likely to defer to the group (or just Christian).

Producers may be editing to imply Christian is the mastermind (or players perceive that, I wouldn't doubt it either way), but Nick, Carl and Davie seem plenty wily too...

[Jextella]

1 hour ago, LanceM said:

Another preview for next weeks 2 episodes. Angelina and Christian working together?  

 

Thanks for sharing.  This looks totally awesome.

[LadyChatts]

Wow, a preview already?  I do think next week will be a big turning point.  I am impressed by how practically everyone is playing the game, and now that they are even along old tribal lines, if this means a lot more scrambling, stategizing, deal making, and alliance forming.  Mike may find himself very, very sorry for bailing on Strike Force, because why would any of the Davids have use for him (especially Christian/Nick/Gabby), and Alec/Alison/Kara may be doing some thinking of their own.  But again, even those who've gotten quiet edits seem to have some sort of strategy.  I'm not saying everyone's edit is screaming winner or that the right moves have been made by certain people, but glad that no one is just happy to be in an alliance and get carried.

[jay741982]

On 11/22/2018 at 12:26 AM, LanceM said:

Another preview for next weeks 2 episodes. Angelina and Christian working together?  

 

 

I was just thinking this earlier. Angelina will probably propose going after Alec/Kara and tell Christian hes not on top of her radar. Possibly sell Alec being a IC threat and get him out ASAP

[OutOfTheQuestion]

On 11/22/2018 at 2:28 AM, LadyChatts said:

Mike may find himself very, very sorry for bailing on Strike Force, because why would any of the Davids have use for him (especially Christian/Nick/Gabby), and Alec/Alison/Kara may be doing some thinking of their own.

Not that I think the "Strike Force" alliance will get back together, but it just occurred to me that all six are still in the game --- Mike, Gabby, Christian, Nick, Alison, Alec. 

[Nashville]

3 hours ago, OutOfTheQuestion said:

Not that I think the "Strike Force" alliance will get back together, but it just occurred to me that all six are still in the game --- Mike, Gabby, Christian, Nick, Alison, Alec. 

Yeah, but IMHO you can kiss off anything resembling significant collaboration; the Goliath contingency has triply demonstrated their only interest in the alliance is eliminating Davids in general - and, as of the last two TC votes, Christian specifically.  Not a lot of trust-building in THAT resume.

[Lamb18]

The commercials during football yesterday talked about two tribal councils this Wednesday. Do you think it's 2 TCs in one hour or a two-hour episode?

[fishcakes]

12 minutes ago, Lamb18 said:

The commercials during football yesterday talked about two tribal councils this Wednesday. Do you think it's 2 TCs in one hour or a two-hour episode?

TV Guide is listing it as a two-hour episode from 8:00 to 10:00.

[LadyChatts]

So next week we see Gabby aiming to get Christian out.  I liked it better when the Davids cared less about big moves and resumes and were more about old school strategy, but Gabby brought that up tonight when it came to Carl potentially getting credit for their moves.

Hopefully she does not succeed.  The Goliaths have nothing to lose, I know Angelina would totally be down for it.  But I don't want my Survivor husband to get voted off.

Edited November 29, 2018 by LadyChatts

[jay741982]

17 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

So next week we see Gabby aiming to get Christian out.  I liked it better when the Davids cared less about big moves and resumes and were more about old school strategy, but Gabby brought that up tonight when it came to Carl potentially getting credit for their moves.

Hopefully she does not succeed.  The Goliaths have nothing to lose, I know Angelina would totally be down for it.  But I don't want my Survivor husband to get voted off.

Gabby is such a whiney Idiotic bitch Christian just did WHAT SHE WANTED Now shes after him and Kara Can fuck off with her surprise. She screwed over someone  who had her back 100% then was bitching tonight about not wanting Alec to go when he showed in the past he didn't have her back.

[LadyChatts]

4 minutes ago, jay741982 said:

Gabby is such a whiney Idiotic bitch Christian just did WHAT SHE WANTED Now shes after him and Kara Can fuck off with her surprise. She screwed over someone  who had her back 100% then was bitching tonight about not wanting Alec to go when he showed in the past he didn't have her back.

Kara seemed kind of entitled tonight, considering she no longer had the numbers.  She acted like working with the Davids was like inviting ants to a picnic, and I don't know where this sudden bond between her and Alec developed.  After he blindsided Natalia, she was quick to turn on him.  And she now knows he had a side alliance that might have taken her out had Mike not ditched it, and basically forced Alec and Alison to go back to the Goliaths.  And Dan never did anything but try and protect Kara.

I think Gabby is looking at Christian as a big move, but she needs to realize, the jury will hammer her about voting out her biggest ally when she did, and the only person who could stand consoling her and her tears.  So they might say "big move" but they aren't going to give her a standing ovation.  If she makes it to the end, I believe she will crack at the FTC if it gets too personal.  I also don't think she's thinking long term.  If her goal is to get Christian out because it is a big resume move, and one of her complaints about Carl was him getting credit for moves, doesn't she think this will in turn put a target on her back?  Get Christian out, then get the person who took Christian out out of the game

[jay741982]

3 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Kara seemed kind of entitled tonight, considering she no longer had the numbers.  She acted like working with the Davids was like inviting ants to a picnic, and I don't know where this sudden bond between her and Alec developed.  After he blindsided Natalia, she was quick to turn on him.  And she now knows he had a side alliance that might have taken her out had Mike not ditched it, and basically forced Alec and Alison to go back to the Goliaths.  And Dan never did anything but try and protect Kara.

I think Gabby is looking at Christian as a big move, but she needs to realize, the jury will hammer her about voting out her biggest ally when she did, and the only person who could stand consoling her and her tears.  So they might say "big move" but they aren't going to give her a standing ovation.  If she makes it to the end, I believe she will crack at the FTC if it gets too personal.  I also don't think she's thinking long term.  If her goal is to get Christian out because it is a big resume move, and one of her complaints about Carl was him getting credit for moves, doesn't she think this will in turn put a target on her back?  Get Christian out, then get the person who took Christian out out of the game

Yep more proof shes an idiot. Shes probably bitching next week cause Christian realized he did stuff FOR HER and not himself and as for Kara I agree and I'm been aghast at her wanting Alec around with his past moves when Dan was loyal. 

Edited November 29, 2018 by jay741982

[LadyChatts]

13 minutes ago, jay741982 said:

Yep more proof shes an idiot. Shes probably bitching next week cause Christian realized he did stuff FOR HER and not himself and as for Kara I agree and I'm been aghast at her wanting Alec around with his past moves when Dan was loyal. 

Another thing Gabby has to consider-Christian has an idol.  I'm sure by next week everyone will know about it, but she and the other Davids at least know it and can relay that info to whoever she's working with in hopes of getting him out.  All Christian would need to do is catch of wind of this plan, if Gabby is successful, play his idol, and save himself.  If she survives the vote and isn't blindsided, I'm sure tears will be shed the likes of which we've never seen, and that no doubt will drive a wedge between them.  I mean Christian only trusted Mike because he had to.  I think he will be shocked if Gabby turns on him and may re-consider working with her.  He isn't an immunity threat by any stretch, and no one even picked him to participate in the RC.  I'm not saying wait awhile, but I don't think it's a good time for Gabby of all people to orchestrate his ouster.

This could be a win for someone else.

[truthaboutluv]

Well it could all be a misdirect but of course all of the previews have been accurate in terms of who someone was targeting. I have been saying for weeks now that I did feel like Gabby would be Christian's downfall because of her overly emotional and almost paranoid attitude.

If Gabby succeeds in getting rid of Christian, that will have the game revert to four Goliaths and three Davids. Nick and Davie WILL NOT protect and work with her ass, Mike hasn't liked her for awhile, Kara and Angelina are likely indifferent towards her and so they will happily vote her out if the numbers are there. If Gabby truly gets Christian out using the old Goliaths, I feel confident in saying she'll follow him right to Ponderosa. 

Because at this point, I do think Christian has been a shield for her in the game. She and Alison are okay but Alison had her own bond with Christian. Gabby's the one who could barely function on Tiva with the other tribe members, while Christian bonded with them very quickly. 

Nick's original alliance was with Christian, not her. And again, Mike, just like Carl stated, thinks she's erratic and a liability. Like girl doesn't have any real alliance and numbers to think getting rid of her strongest alliance partner is a good idea. Especially since she'd hardly be useful to anyone at that point in terms of a numbers game.

Edited November 29, 2018 by truthaboutluv

[TVFan1]

Next week better be a huge misdirect. Why would Gabby turn on her #1 ally throughout the whole game? I can understand her wanting to make a big move, but come on. I hope Christian finds out what's going on and plays his idol to save himself. Who knows, maybe Gabby gets blindsided instead.

[Mark2]

2 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Another thing Gabby has to consider-Christian has an idol.  I'm sure by next week everyone will know about it, but she and the other Davids at least know it and can relay that info to whoever she's working with in hopes of getting him out.  All Christian would need to do is catch of wind of this plan, if Gabby is successful, play his idol, and save himself.  If she survives the vote and isn't blindsided, I'm sure tears will be shed the likes of which we've never seen, and that no doubt will drive a wedge between them.  I mean Christian only trusted Mike because he had to.  I think he will be shocked if Gabby turns on him and may re-consider working with her.  He isn't an immunity threat by any stretch, and no one even picked him to participate in the RC.  I'm not saying wait awhile, but I don't think it's a good time for Gabby of all people to orchestrate his ouster.

This could be a win for someone else.

 

2 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

Well it could all be a misdirect but of course all of the previews have been accurate in terms of who someone was targeting. I have been saying for weeks now that I did feel like Gabby would be Christian's downfall because of her overly emotional and almost paranoid attitude.

If Gabby succeeds in getting rid of Christian, that will have the game revert to four Goliaths and three Davids. Nick and Davie WILL NOT protect and work with her ass, Mike hasn't liked her for awhile, Kara and Angelina are likely indifferent towards her and so they will happily vote her out if the numbers are there. If Gabby truly gets Christian out using the old Goliaths, I feel confident in saying she'll follow him right to Ponderosa. 

Because at this point, I do think Christian has been a shield for her in the game. She and Alison are okay but Alison had her own bond with Christian. Gabby's the one who could barely function on Tiva with the other tribe members, while Christian bonded with them very quickly. 

Nick's original alliance was with Christian, not her. And again, Mike, just like Carl stated, thinks she's erratic and a liability. Like girl doesn't have any real alliance and numbers to think getting rid of her strongest alliance partner is a good idea. Especially since she'd hardly be useful to anyone at that point in terms of a numbers game.

We're thinking along mostly the same lines.
 

2 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

Next week better be a huge misdirect. Why would Gabby turn on her #1 ally throughout the whole game? I can understand her wanting to make a big move, but come on. I hope Christian finds out what's going on and plays his idol to save himself. Who knows, maybe Gabby gets blindsided instead.

Something (okay, a few things) to add: Gabby can't be sooo stupid as to think that backstabbing Christian is a good idea.  I mean, not only does he console her in times when they're alone, but he also helps her with basic communication with other people.  Like her or hate her let's be frank; Christian is a big reason she has made it this far. 

She also can't be ignorant of the fact that Christian has endeared himself with enough people that he'd probably find out first or second hand.  She also knows about the idol.  And that Goliath was gunning to knock out one David after another when they had the numbers.  I guess I do believe she could be trusting enough to think that changed.  But then there's that TC where she had the outburst about sitting around waiting to get picked off one by one.

Beyond all that, Gabby strikes me as too risk averse to turn on Christian when it's 4-4.  Maybe it's a double reverse big move :D  Pretend Christian is finally a goner, at the hands of his closest ally no less, and get credit for fooling whoever she fools.  The Big Lie approach.

Or a double triple reverse big move and Gabby actually does vote for Christian, but he uses the idol.  The Goliaths then trust Gabby, and she back stabs them.  Big move numero dos.

Or it falls flat because everyone she tries to convince thinks about all this.

I'll be bold and say that whatever plan she or the Davids cooked up succeeds just like John and Dan, taking out a Goliath.  Or they almost go to rocks but 1+ Goliath flip on vote #2, taking out one of their own.  Gotta cover the bases...

[LadyChatts]

18 minutes ago, Mark2 said:

Something (okay, a few things) to add: Gabby can't be sooo stupid as to think that backstabbing Christian is a good idea.  I mean, not only does he console her in times when they're alone, but he also helps her with basic communication with other people.  Like her or hate her let's be frank; Christian is a big reason she has made it this far. 

She also can't be ignorant of the fact that Christian has endeared himself with enough people that he'd probably find out first or second hand.  She also knows about the idol.  And that Goliath was gunning to knock out one David after another when they had the numbers.  I guess I do believe she could be trusting enough to think that changed.  But then there's that TC where she had the outburst about sitting around waiting to get picked off one by one.

Beyond all that, Gabby strikes me as too risk averse to turn on Christian when it's 4-4.  Maybe it's a double reverse big move :D  Pretend Christian is finally a goner, at the hands of his closest ally no less, and get credit for fooling whoever she fools.  The Big Lie approach.

Gabby might be stupid enough if she is trying to make a big move and get out from under Christian's shadow.  Tonight she talked about Carl being the Godfather and worried he'd get credit for all the moves; then said seemed offended that people thought she was stupid about the Alison vote.  She seemed on kind of a power trip tonight.  So that could be leading up to Gabby becoming very over confident (thinking that Christian would never believe she'd vote for him) and gunning for him.  Christian could easily confront her and she backs down and feels betrayed someone told him.  I don't know, I think Gabby is smart, but she's also very emotional and cracks easily.  I can see several different scenarios playing out-and that's why I'm loving this season!  Nothing has been too overly obvious for the most part and going into each week, I feel like there might be endless possibilities to what might happen and how.

[KimberStormer]

Frankly I think Gabby needs to get Christian out for the same reason everyone does -- he will win if he makes FTC, no matter who he goes up against -- and also for the same reason Kara needed to get rid of Dan.  Now, is this the time for it, who knows (I am too tired to think it out) but she has to someday.  Everybody does.

[MissEwa]

4 minutes ago, KimberStormer said:

Frankly I think Gabby needs to get Christian out for the same reason everyone does -- he will win if he makes FTC, no matter who he goes up against -- and also for the same reason Kara needed to get rid of Dan.  Now, is this the time for it, who knows (I am too tired to think it out) but she has to someday.  Everybody does.

This. I don't know about timing either, and I'm sure it won't happen in the next episode, but she's not an idiot for thinking it needs to happen at some point. 

Or a bitch either. I mean, are we really still doing that 'woman who plays anything but a nice clean social game = bitch' thing? 

[truthaboutluv]

2 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

Frankly I think Gabby needs to get Christian out for the same reason everyone does -- he will win if he makes FTC, no matter who he goes up against -- and also for the same reason Kara needed to get rid of Dan.  Now, is this the time for it, who knows (I am too tired to think it out) but she has to someday.  Everybody does.

I don't have an issue with Gabby targeting Christian if it's a good move for her game. But that's just it, I don't think it is for the reasons I outlined above. It's entirely possible that the editing has misled us but it's all I have to go on. And based on that, in my opinion, it doesn't seem like Gabby has enough pull on her own to succeed without Christian. Like I said, I really do think he's been something of a shield for her and without him, she's done. 

It was like the Rob and Amber situation. Of course getting rid of Rob was what most of the other players needed to do. And it was revealed after the season that Jenna tried multiple times to get Amber on board to blindside him and Amber flat out said no every time. And that made sense because the one person whose game it didn't benefit to get rid of Rob, was Amber. She needed him as the bigger target to get them to the end. I think on the DVD commentary, she said as much. That she knew she would have been booted right after him had she joined in any plan to blindside him. 

Of course the situation is a little different because of the nature of Rob and Amber's relationship but I think you get my point. I just don't think that Gabby has enough of a pull with Nick, Davie, Mike, etc. that if she gets rid of Christian, they won't all see her as an easy vote to boot next. So in the end, it's not good for her game. Also, it may just be me, but as much as I like Christian, I think some are overestimating his chances of winning. I do think he'll have a good chance if he makes it to the final tribal council but I wouldn't say he'd beat anyone because I still think Nick is the one playing the best game right now. 

Edited November 29, 2018 by truthaboutluv

[Bryce Lynch]

6 hours ago, Mark2 said:

Another thing Gabby has to consider-Christian has an idol.  I'm sure by next week everyone will know about it, but she and the other Davids at least know it and can relay that info to whoever she's working with in hopes of getting him out. 

Did Christian tell anyone about his idol?  I've seen so many idol and advantage finds that they are kind of a blur, but I thought he said he was keeping it to himself.   

It will be interesting to see how Gabby tries to go at Christian.  I assume it would be with Allison, Kara, Angelina and Mike.  But, all of those people are at least a bit unpredictable, especially Angelina and Mike and it could easily get back to Christian, who could use the idol, or might not even need it, if Gabby doesn't really get all the Goliaths on board.  

[Irishsecra]

It is way too early for Gabby to turn on Christian.

Now if she wants the players and jury members to think that she is a snake in the grass who would turn on anyone, then good move.

On a purely personal level, it is also an incredibly mean thing to do to someone who has been protecting her back all thru the game.

[peachmangosteen]

3 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

Frankly I think Gabby needs to get Christian out for the same reason everyone does -- he will win if he makes FTC, no matter who he goes up against -- and also for the same reason Kara needed to get rid of Dan.  Now, is this the time for it, who knows (I am too tired to think it out) but she has to someday.  Everybody does.

This.

It probably is too early, but I hope it happens lol. I think it would be awesome and hilarious if Gabby gets Christian out. I think the preview is likely misleading though.

[truthaboutluv]

30 minutes ago, Bryce Lynch said:

Did Christian tell anyone about his idol? 

Yes. All the Davids know he has it. 

[Nashville]

7 hours ago, Irishsecra said:

It is way too early for Gabby to turn on Christian.

Strategically speaking, it was at least one vote too early to safely evict Carl - but THAT doesn’t seem to be bothering anybody....  :P

[GenerationX]

Sobby has no chance in this game if Christian is gone.  She just doesn't have the emotional make-up to get through the last two weeks without completely breaking down.  It's not a good move for her to even suggest getting rid of him.

The Loved Ones episodes are always such dreck.  This one won't kill this season, which has been stellar so far, but I don't find them entertaining.

[LadyChatts]

2 hours ago, Nashville said:

Strategically speaking, it was at least one vote too early to safely evict Carl - but THAT doesn’t seem to be bothering anybody....  :P

I've been thinking this over and am not sure it was entirely a terrible idea.  I guess I'm looking at it from a numbers perspective, and still wondering what exactly is going on with Mason/Dixon.  

Now, Angelina somehow thought she was in with all the Davids and had essentially bumped Gabby out of that alliance.  Yet Carl was all about David Strong, and I'm going to assume Nick and Davey felt the same way.  So I don't know where Angelina got that impression, unless she was told or just assumed for whatever reason.  Christian/Gabby may not have had an opportunity to boot Carl if another Goliath went.  Mike seems very unpredictable, I believe Davey is closer to Carl and would likely target Christian as being a threat, and if Alison went, that would have left Angelina/Gabby/Kara/Christian/Nick/Davey/Carl/Mike.  Kara also seems like she's unpredictable and will go with whoever gets her another 3 days at this point, because she has nothing to lose.  Christian knows he's a threat, and I am wondering why Nick seemed to be more with Davey/Carl than with Christian last night (that we saw).  So I don't know, maybe Christian believed this was his only opportunity to boot Carl and keep Alison, who he did have a flimsy alliance with.  I don't even think he wanted Alec to go but didn't have a choice (and it would have been stupid to give the Goliaths back their numbers, especially to keep an immunity thread around).

So I guess I can see that it was both a good idea and a bad idea to boot Carl.  

[LanceM]

Carl said on RHAP today that he and Angelina were very close out there and that they totally clicked on the first day of the merge so I am guessing she wasn't that off base when she made the comment.  I mean yes he was David Strong but does that mean he was going to vote all the Goliaths out before turning on his fellow tribe?  I doubt it.  As far as the preview goes I am going to say that once again they are misdirecting us and no Christian won't be voted off next episode.  Though I wonder if Gabby gets voted off?

[violet and green]

1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

I don't even think he wanted Alec to go but didn't have a choice (and it would have been stupid to give the Goliaths back their numbers, especially to keep an immunity thread around).

So I guess I can see that it was both a good idea and a bad idea to boot Carl.  

But in booting Carl he has now given the Goliaths back their numbers, which is making me so mad!

It was a good idea to boot Carl in that I never want to see him drink beer ever again, but really bad timing. Carl was unlikely to win challenges and could have been got out a bit later. I hate that Christian has tied his ship so tightly to Gabby that he would screw over the rest of his alliance and neuter their numbers advantage and trust to team up with people like Mike and Alison who have screwed him over twice recently, and wanted him out quite vociferously just two tribals ago... It's nuts. I hope it plays out better than I imagine it will, though.

[Nashville]

2 hours ago, violet and green said:

But in booting Carl he has now given the Goliaths back their numbers, which is making me so mad!

It was a good idea to boot Carl in that I never want to see him drink beer ever again, but really bad timing. Carl was unlikely to win challenges and could have been got out a bit later. I hate that Christian has tied his ship so tightly to Gabby that he would screw over the rest of his alliance and neuter their numbers advantage and trust to team up with people like Mike and Alison who have screwed him over twice recently, and wanted him out quite vociferously just two tribals ago... It's nuts. I hope it plays out better than I imagine it will, though.

The numbers were the focus of my earlier post about Carl’s eviction - any David eviction, for that matter - at this TC being one vote too early.  

Now, I am in no way a fan of the “<insert original tribe name here> Strong” mentality; I hate it, in fact. I consider it an intellectually lazy imposition of peer pressure and fear of retribution, for the express purpose of suppressing any hint of individual initiative in its own collective membership.  Much as I despise “X Strong”, though, there is no denying its effectiveness, especially when its proponent tribe has the numeric majority - and the longer an X Strong campaign successfully runs the more difficult it is to counter, from either inside or out; its opponents are crushed by the ever-growing juggernaut, and its membership clings tighter lest any signs of wavering lead to them also greasing the tracks.

So - when your numerically superior opponent repeatedly overtly espouses X Strong, you’d be a fool not to take steps to counter it.  And the only way to do that?  Eliminate your opponent’s numeric advantage - which necessarily requires a unified opposing front, with no cracks or wavering.  Like it or not, a significant component of the only way to successfully counter X Strong is to become Y Strong - to adopt your opponent’s strategy, and beat them at their own game.  And, by God, the Davids somehow managed to do it.

I mean, think about it - a hat trick of incredible scale was required for the Davids to gain their very first numeric majority since the merge.  The entirety of the post-merge season has been a story of the Goliaths immediately initiating a Pagong parade against the Davids with the very first post-merge TC, followed by the triple-Lutz contortions of the Davids to turn the tables on their Goliath Strong opponents.  And against all odds, the Davids pulled it off; with Alec’s eviction, the Davids had their very first post-merge dominance - a razor-thin 1-person dominance to be sure, but dominance nonetheless.

So now - given the history and context of this season - in what universe does it make good strategic sense to throw that dominant position away, and return to numeric parity?

I’ll just sit over here and wait for an answer; please excuse me, though, if I don’t hold my breath.  ;>

Edited November 30, 2018 by Nashville

[LadyChatts]

I think Carl, and maybe even Nick and Davey, made Christian and Gabby uncomfortable that suddenly they were consulting two Goliaths before consulting them-one of those Goliaths who happened to be an ally of the very people Carl wanted to vote off.  It didn't seem like Carl was willing to discuss the vote, it was just who he wanted.  He made valid points about Alec and probably Alison, just executed it all wrong.  Again, this might have just been a 'get them before they get us' type vote, when Christian/Gabby literally had no one after Alison left and ended up getting picked off.  I think Mike and Kara would go with the majority.  It puts the Davids and Goliaths even at 4-4 and the Davids have two idols.  Will Angelina really go running back to the 3 Goliaths that tried to vote her off?  I'd find it slightly comical if she did.  

[enchantingmonkey]

18 minutes ago, Nashville said:

So now - given the history and context of this season - in what universe does it make good strategic sense to throw that dominant position away, and return to numeric parity?

What if it wasn't driven by good strategy, but a sub-conscious desire to return to that David (underdog) narrative they've been living with all game, and possibly all their lives?  Stranger things have happened.

[Nashville]

20 minutes ago, enchantingmonkey said:

What if it wasn't driven by good strategy, but a sub-conscious desire to return to that David (underdog) narrative they've been living with all game, and possibly all their lives?  Stranger things have happened.

Maybe, but I don’t think it’s that complicated.  In fact, it can probably be boiled down to one factor: players letting subjective personal feelings override objective strategy.  And I hate to say this for your sake, @MisterBluxom, but in THAT respect Gabby’s one of the worst offenders.  Gabby’s targeting of Carl was not strategically rational - it was personally rationalizing.

[MissEwa]

1 hour ago, Nashville said:

I mean, think about it - a hat trick of incredible scale was required for the Davids to gain their very first numeric majority since the merge.  The entirety of the post-merge season has been a story of the Goliaths immediately initiating a Pagong parade against the Davids with the very first post-merge TC, followed by the triple-Lutz contortions of the Davids to turn the tables on their Goliath Strong opponents.  And against all odds, the Davids pulled it off; with Alec’s eviction, the Davids had their very first post-merge dominance - a razor-thin 1-person dominance to be sure, but dominance nonetheless.

So now - given the history and context of this season - in what universe does it make good strategic sense to throw that dominant position away, and return to numeric parity?

I’ll just sit over here and wait for an answer; please excuse me, though, if I don’t hold my breath.  ;>

 

I agree with you except that given the various exit interviews and what we saw in the game of Angelina and Mike's interaction with the Davids, David Strong wasn't a thing any more, so there's no alliance to shore up numbers for. It wasn't like Carl wanted to go to the end with all Davids and was leading an alliance of them. He was leading an alliance of four davids and two goliaths (as far as he knew, it was actually less). In exit interviews he's said (no spoilers but just in case)

Spoiler

His preferred F3 was with two goliaths, and he was going to take out Gabby next. I think she was aware of that, and acted accordingly. 

 

If Carl wanted to protect himself with the whole David strong thing - if it was something he cared about - he should have managed Gabby better. Instead he misled her about the vote and tried to get her closest ally to lie to her.

Christian and Gabby weren't the ones who flipped, they just voted in response to half their alliance doing so. 

Edited November 30, 2018 by MissEwa