S37: David vs. Goliath: Previews & Speculation without Spoilers

[LadyChatts]

Now I'm wondering if the preview isn't so much Gabby targeting Christian for no reason, but maybe this put them further on the outs, since it's either her or him.  I do wonder where this is going to leave them with Nick and Davey, and whether Kara and Mike will stand by them.  Alison may just go with the majority.  

I really hope it doesn't come down to Gabby and Christian just getting picked off, and them having to turn on each other to save themselves.  This season has been going too well for that to happen.

[SVNBob]

2 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I really hope it doesn't come down to Gabby and Christian just getting picked off, and them having to turn on each other to save themselves. 

Don't forget, all the Davids know that Christian has an idol.  (He told them at their meeting when Nick and Carl put their advantages on the table as well.  Nick's idol is only known to him and Davie.) 

It is entirely possible that Gabby is setting up the other women to put their votes on Christian, so that he can use his idol to save himself and the two of them will have the deciding votes in some fashion.

[MisterBluxom]

1 hour ago, Nashville said:

Maybe, but I don’t think it’s that complicated.  In fact, it can probably be boiled down to one factor: players letting subjective personal feelings override objective strategy.  And I hate to say this for your sake, @MisterBluxom, but in THAT respect Gabby’s one of the worst offenders.  Gabby’s targeting of Carl was not strategically rational - it was personally rationalizing.

Well ...... lemme tell you something @NASHVILLE ......

The fact that you would take the time to say you care about offending me is more pleasing to my warped ego than any considerations of right v wrong. It's just that simple, Nash. I don't think you fully appreciate just how much I value your opinions. Honest. I really do. I spend a great deal of my time on these message boards and at least I have come to accept that. Ever since I retired from software engineering, I just don't have much to do any more  in any sense of what most people would call "a real life".  So, the fact that you would concern yourself about my feelings - at all - really means a lot more to me than any concerns someone else may have as to whether you may be right or wrong. I know very well that most people would exclaim, "WTF is wrong with that man"? But, lemme tell you one thing. At least they are no longer exclaiming, "WTF is wrong with that woman"? 

 

to be spoken out loud accompanied by maniacal shrieking laughter ....  I have an appointment to see with my shrink tomorrow morning. I will attempt to assure him that all is well. But at the rate things are going, I don't think he's gonna believe me. Oh well.  Things could be a lot worse, you know.  They could be one whole HELL of a lot worse.  It's just that simple, Nash.

 

  I sure do hope you realize that I'm just trying to add some humor to this thread. It's not that I feel this thread necessarily needs any added humor. However, I do believe the people who are currently sitting at a keyboard, in their homes, may very well enjoy a little more humor. After all, if you take a look at the recent headlines in the typical daily news, life is somewhat lacking in much humor these days. AAMOF, It's a kind of very unfunny world we live in these days.  Don't you think? At this time,  I'm drinking a cup of coffee and I will now raise my cup to your imagined image and wish you a very pleasant day.  Have a good one, Nash!  And please believe me when I say that I mean that a great deal more than any of the coffee baristas or other people who may inhabit your daily life.  Have a good one, Nash!  IMHO, we all deserve to have a good one these days and it's just that simple, Nash.  So, just remember one thing. We are not running around on some island that gets hot as Hell during the day and cold as a witches *bleep* at night.  More than that, we all have jackets and there is no one around telling us "it's just that simple", Know what I mean Nash?

Edited November 30, 2018 by MisterBluxom

[peachmangosteen]

9 hours ago, SVNBob said:

It is entirely possible that Gabby is setting up the other women to put their votes on Christian, so that he can use his idol to save himself and the two of them will have the deciding votes in some fashion.

Ooooh, I love this idea!

OK, so my question on the ep thread about people knowing Christian has the idol is answered. I do not remember him telling everyone lol. Too much has happened this season, I can't keep track of it all!

[Nashville]

9 hours ago, MissEwa said:

I agree with you except that given the various exit interviews and what we saw in the game of Angelina and Mike's interaction with the Davids, David Strong wasn't a thing any more, so there's no alliance to shore up numbers for.

David Strong was never a freely-selected choice of the Davids - the initial Strikeforce and the follow-up 3D/3G alliance with AKA readily demonstrate the Davids were never innately opposed to cross-pollination alliances - but the Goliaths’ stubborn persistence in perpetually returning to the Goliath Strong fold forced the Davids to incorporate a David Strong response as a strategic necessity.

 

9 hours ago, MissEwa said:

 It wasn't like Carl wanted to go to the end with all Davids and was leading an alliance of them. He was leading an alliance of four davids and two goliaths (as far as he knew, it was actually less). In exit interviews he's said (no spoilers but just in case)

  Reveal hidden contents

His preferred F3 was with two goliaths, and he was going to take out Gabby next. I think she was aware of that, and acted accordingly. 

 

If Carl wanted to protect himself with the whole David strong thing - if it was something he cared about - he should have managed Gabby better. Instead he misled her about the vote and tried to get her closest ally to lie to her.

Yes, but Carl is hardly the poster child for smart strategic game management. :)   Carl’s go-to rationale was, “Oh, so-and-so is SUCH a competition beast; we better get rid of them now while we had a chance” - but while there may have been some truth in that for Dan and (to a lesser degree) Alec, how was that true for Elizabeth?  Or Alison?  

Truth is, Carl’s rationales were really just rationalization.  Carl’s targets were based on personal grudges and personality clashes rather than strategy; he made his picks, then cooked up rationalized excuses for targeting them.  Which isn’t to say Carl didn’t benefit strategically from his targets’ evictions; that strategic benefit was more lucky byproduct, however, than primary driving goal.

 

9 hours ago, MissEwa said:

Christian and Gabby weren't the ones who flipped, they just voted in response to half their alliance doing so. 

True - but the friction between Carl and Gabby started well before the circumstances of the most recently aired episode(s)*.  Gabby’s “Godfather” references to Carl started at least an episode or two prior, and this preexisting friction was precisely WHY Carl sought to replace Gabby with Angelina in the first place.  Carl’s motivations were simple; he didn’t like Gabby for the same reason he had a grudge against Elizabeth - he saw both as having a hand in his pal Jessica’s eviction.  Gabby’s motivations were equally simple; she didn’t like Carl because she sensed Carl didn’t like her.And either could have viewed resolution of this friction as an opportunity to build strategic inroads with the other, but neither chose to do so.

Left untended to grow and fester, personality clashes can develop into strategically impactful situations on down the road which must be addressed - but that doesn’t alter the fact neglectful social gameplay created them in the first place.  And that applies to both Carl and Gabby.

 

 

* Is Wednesday’s two-hour extravaganza counted as one episode, or two?

[violet and green]

It would've made posting in the episode(s) thread easier if we didn't have this weird subdivision of previews and episodes - because part of the reason I am so incensed by the move of Christian to go with Gabby and the Goliaths against Carl now was the scene shown in the 'next week on the show' reel, of Gabby appearing to target Christian. 

I don't care if Gabby cries, I don't care that she's a crier. I just don't even particularly notice really, it's quite odd. I think it is a mechanism I've developed for dealing with a constant public crier in my life, who to my eyes turns it on for attention in the oddest manner; so when Gabby starts the deluge, I have no feelings around it, I just observe the facial grimaces involved and view it like a change in weather. So, prior to this move, I liked her a lot, but now I'm just so mad - it's not just the idea she may have led to not only Christian's downfall, after such a good ride, and really he only has himself to blame for that move, he had many other options - but also the only other remaining people I like, Nick and Davie. Argh!

[ProfCrash]

I am not too worried about the preview. They have all been reasonably deceptive this season. Some folks has suggested that she is trying to votes for Christian, knowing they will bounce, while Christian and she target a bigger threat. My concern is that the bigger threat is Davie or Nick.

As for Gabby targetting Christian, it would be best for her chances to make sure he does not to make it to tribal with her. Christian would beat her badly. She might be able to get some votes by showing that she was willing to get rid of her biggest ally. 

After all, only one person can win the million and I am not a huge fan of going to the finals just for going to the finals. Althugh I am not sure that Gabby has a chance against anyone in the finals. She has not done that much. She has worked with Christian but she has not played an advantage or idol or won immunity. I am not sure that even taking out Christian would help her that much. 

[violet and green]

Well, I've never like Gabby enough to want her to win. I was always just glad she'd survived, unlike Elizabeth, who went out too early to my mind. If she's screwed Christian's game, so be it, as he was a party to it - but having reduced the numbers down in her Davids' alliance, she has given the scragends of the the Goliaths an advantage over the remaining players I want to see in the final tribal, none of which include Gabby particularly.

[Nashville]

So - with Carl’s eviction, the original David/Goliath numbers are right back at parity again (4 to 4).

Has it occurred to any David that targeting another David at this juncture would (a) once again put the Davids at a numerically inferior position to the Goliaths and (b) go a long ways towards reviving the the Goliath Strong mentality the Davids worked so hard to overcome?

[violet and green]

Exactly. It's not like you need an elaborate shell diagram to figure this out at this stage! If Alec had still been there and been involved in that last vote out of Carl, I would have more confidence in that move and in going forward, but the fact that he wasn't, and that the least trustworthy of the Goliath half of the old Strike force were, and that Nick was excluded (apparently, from what we saw) in the decision... So infuriating. I really hope this doesn't leave us with a final TC involving Angelina spouting her dot point resume!

Edited November 30, 2018 by violet and green
typo

[LadyChatts]

The thing about Gabby and Christian trying to turn the vote on him, just for him to play his idol and target another threat, is that they either have to have people on their side, or hope the others don't split the votes.  And the Davids, while outnumbered, already managed to do just that which led to John's ouster. 

BasicallyGabby/Christian could target Nick, for example, but that still leaves 6 other people who could vote 3 for Christian, 3 for Gabby, and get her out, unless they can get someone else on their side.  Essentially they are left with Nick, Davey, and Goliath floaters at this point who are likely going to go with the majority.  And I don't believe anyone wants to go to the end with Christian.

[KimberStormer]

Previews always lie, so I doubt Christian's going anywhere next week.  Perhaps Gabby might try to put together an anti-Christian coalition before the time has come to put it into action, like Alec tried to form the Strike Force before they made their move.  She might for example try to form a women's alliance, get everyone to vote out Mike, and then take out Christian next week and go all-girl-final-4 (in which case she'd at worst have to make fire.)  Risky biz since she'd be the only David in that group, but Angelina and Alison seem to hate each other so who knows.  (I think both of them would be really into the idea of the women's alliance as a concept, but maybe not with each other.)  This is me just making things up, but I seem to remember it was all women she was talking to in the preview.

God knows it's hard for a lady to get any credit out there -- even if she takes Christian out, she could get the Hannah treatment if she does it at the "wrong time" according to some bitter jokers on the jury who somehow think they know better than her even though they're on the bench and she's on the beach.  I feel like, if Gabby led the charge, she'd have a better chance against any of the women than against Davie, Christian, or Nick.  No matter what she's going to have a hard road facing the jury the way she gets so emotional -- no judgment, but it's not a great way to win the jury over.

[Mark2]

Hard to say if this belongs here or in the advantage thread...but it's more speculation (or idea, Jeff...) and avoids spoilers:

What if they gave jurors the opportunity to compete in immunity challenges to "steal" it from someone who it will actually benefit?  Or let them give it away to someone still playing.  Or bring them back with immunity....and an extra vote.  JK on that last one.

Edited December 1, 2018 by Mark2

[violet and green]

I don't expect Christian to be ousted that easily that he's gone next week, either, but it grates to see - after his stupid sacrifice, out of loyalty and protectiveness to Gabby - footage of that wingey whiney crybaby snap out of her histrionics long enough to pull a plan together to get rid of someone who has hobbled himself because of her.

I doubt she'd make it to a final TC via any other path than alignment with Christian - though I guess she's made a good case for herself as a super-goat; whereas as Christian's pet she would at least be assured some final TC money.

[TVFan1]

If Gabby makes FTC, she will not win. I don't see anything she did or moves she made for her to win. Come to think of it, has Gabby ever received a vote at any tribal council? I don't think she has, but if there was a vote for her, I wonder if she would get upset over that and demand to know who it was who voted for her.

[KimberStormer]

5 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

If Gabby makes FTC, she will not win. I don't see anything she did or moves she made for her to win.

I mean, isn't that exactly why....she should make a move?  A move you might even call...big?  Like voting out Christian?

[kikaha]

On 11/30/2018 at 10:00 PM, KimberStormer said:

God knows it's hard for a lady to get any credit out there -- even if she takes Christian out, she could get the Hannah treatment if she does it at the "wrong time" according to some bitter jokers on the jury who somehow think they know better than her even though they're on the bench and she's on the beach.  I feel like, if Gabby led the charge, she'd have a better chance against any of the women than against Davie, Christian, or Nick.  No matter what she's going to have a hard road facing the jury the way she gets so emotional -- no judgment, but it's not a great way to win the jury over.

Hannah (who got the "Hannah treatment" from the women as well as the men) made a series of fatal mistakes.  One of the worst: she booted people she might beat, and kept ones she couldn't.  No surprise the jury (all of them) voted against her in finals.  They didn't respect her game. 

[marys1000]

Gabby has a relationship with Christian and Allison.  If she were to get Christian booted, she would have to be building a whole new alliance.  Who could she pull in?  Who could Allison?

Mike would go for Christian and probably Angelina.  But thats not saying they would be trusty alliance members after.  Didn't Nick say  in a talking head that he wants to go to the end with his best buds even if they are a jury threat?  Nick isn't interested in Gabby in an alliance I don't think.  Davie is a bit of a wildcard but would probably stick with Nick. 

I just don't see it.  Gabby wouldn't have lasted this far without Christian and while she seems to be exhibiting some self aggrandizement, hero in her own mind, I would hope she realizes that without Christian she doesn't have a hope.  

I think the preview is a fake teaser. 

[peachmangosteen]

1 hour ago, kikaha said:

One of the worst: [Hannah] booted people she might beat, and kept ones she couldn't.  No surprise the jury (all of them) voted against her in finals.  They didn't respect her game. 

And yet, Gabby appears to be trying to vote out someone she can't beat and she's getting shit for it. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[truthaboutluv]

3 hours ago, marys1000 said:

Gabby has a relationship with Christian and Allison.  If she were to get Christian booted, she would have to be building a whole new alliance.  Who could she pull in?  Who could Allison?

That is really my only feeling regarding this. If I saw evidence based on what we've seen so far that it would be best for Gabby's game if she blindsided Christian, much as I like him, I'd be like, "girl do you..." It's like last season where as much as I liked Wendell and Dominik, I thought Laurel was a complete idiot for not making a move the few times she could, with Donathan and company, to get rid of at least one of them. 

As it stands right now, and like I said, it's more than possible editing has hidden a lot, I just don't know if blindsiding Christian would be great for Gabby's game. And if it isn't then yeah, she would have made a big move but one that backfired on her. So what's the point? 

[Jextella]

5 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

That is really my only feeling regarding this. If I saw evidence based on what we've seen so far that it would be best for Gabby's game if she blindsided Christian, much as I like him, I'd be like, "girl do you..." It's like last season where as much as I liked Wendell and Dominik, I thought Laurel was a complete idiot for not making a move the few times she could, with Donathan and company, to get rid of at least one of them. 

As it stands right now, and like I said, it's more than possible editing has hidden a lot, I just don't know if blindsiding Christian would be great for Gabby's game. And if it isn't then yeah, she would have made a big move but one that backfired on her. So what's the point? 

 

I agree.   In an interview with Carl, he said it stung that Christian went against the Davids because they earlier used all their ammo to save him.  I don't sense that any of the Davids particularly care for Gabby.  If she turned on Christian, I think it would be one blow too many.  I don't think Carl, Nick or Davie would respect her gameplay enough to give her their votes.  Actually, this is probably true even if she doesn't work to get out Christian.  They've been around her  weepiness for a long time and she doesn't appear to have been too involved in decisions about how to play their advantages.

Now that I think about it, Gabby doesn't seem to have made any solid relationships with males other than Christian.  She's sort of on the outs with the Davids, she was on the outs with the Brochachos.  She's never seen talking to Mike or Alec - at least not that I recall.   

There is still quite a bit of gameplay to come so who knows how things will shake out, but I don't think Gabby ever truly had a shot at this...at least not since the first or second tantrum.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Jextella

[kikaha]

3 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

And yet, Gabby appears to be trying to vote out someone she can't beat and she's getting shit for it. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Getting shit from some people on this forum.  Would she get shit from the jury?  I think it would be the opposite. 

[Mark2]

1 hour ago, kikaha said:

Getting shit from some people on this forum.  Would she get shit from the jury?  I think it would be the opposite. 

Granted, my main frame of reference is a bit dated (snakes vs rats), but betrayal of your closest alliance seems like bad policy at this point.  She would potentially be screwing over all of the former Davids (and potential jurors) just to be seen as making a "big move."  My money is still on misdirection.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Mark2

[LadyChatts]

If Gabby is looking to get Christian out solely to make a big move and so she can get credit going forward, then I think it'll backfire spectacularly.  I'm not saying Christian shouldn't be targeted, but her and Christian have been tight allies.  Many on the jury will look at it as she only made it this far because of Christian.  If, say, Alison or Kara or Angelina got Christian out the next vote, then I think it'd be seen as a bigger deal-because Christian didn't carry them to this point.  And as already been pointed out, where does Gabby go after this?  Alison and Mike are wishy washy when it comes to sticking to an alliance, Kara and Angelina have no loyalty to her, and I doubt that Nick or Davey will have anything to do with her.  And whose to say the Goliaths won't just re-align and pick the Davids off?  Again, I hope if she does target Christian it isn't solely to make a big resume move.  

[violet and green]

I think Gabby has a snowball's chance in hell of winning this thing, however it plays out from here. I think Christian just significantly lowered his chances of getting anywhere near smelling distance of the final TC, by betraying his David alliance at this point - for Gabby.

The last time someone got this open-mouthed bawling edit was Adam Klein... However he also had many, many LOUD, confidant, grating talking heads as well throughout the season and pulled the dying mother card out of the bag at the poignant moment. And did stuff, I guess. I can't remember!

I think they both tanked their games by getting Carl out then and in the manner they did. But only Christian lost a chance to win the whole shebang. Aside from reducing their numbers advantage, Nick and Davie may kind of forgive, but not forget, being betrayed like this, and will likely now feel more comfortable returning play and ejecting the major threat of Christian sooner rather than later. 

[LadyChatts]

But I think Nick, Carl, and Davey totally mismanaged the situation by not bringing Gabby into the fold, and putting Christian in an awkward spot knowing how close they were.  They should have just been up front with Gabby about wanting to vote out Alison.  Instead, Angelina inserted herself in with the Davids and Carl was letting Kara in on votes before Gabby.  So maybe Christian blew it by just going with Gabby and her emotions, but I don't believe Nick, Carl, or Davey did anything to help ease their confidence.  So I'd argue they are partly to blame for the vote.  And whether Carl really would have booted Gabby at the next TC or he's just playing revisionist history now I don't know, but if that was the case, clearly they made the right choice.  However, I'm always skeptical when I hear comments like that in exit interviews.

Edited December 2, 2018 by LadyChatts

[Jextella]

6 hours ago, violet and green said:

I think Gabby has a snowball's chance in hell of winning this thing, however it plays out from here. I think Christian just significantly lowered his chances of getting anywhere near smelling distance of the final TC, by betraying his David alliance at this point - for Gabby.

The last time someone got this open-mouthed bawling edit was Adam Klein... However he also had many, many LOUD, confidant, grating talking heads as well throughout the season and pulled the dying mother card out of the bag at the poignant moment. And did stuff, I guess. I can't remember!

I think they both tanked their games by getting Carl out then and in the manner they did. But only Christian lost a chance to win the whole shebang. Aside from reducing their numbers advantage, Nick and Davie may kind of forgive, but not forget, being betrayed like this, and will likely now feel more comfortable returning play and ejecting the major threat of Christian sooner rather than later. 

2

I forgot about Adam.  He had a lot more on his plate than Gabby, though, and I always wondered if his constant talk about his mother was producer-driven.  I have to believe a lot of it was.  Gabby is just sort of whining because the big kids haven't asked her to play.  Sorry, but that's how I see it.

I should clarify too.  I didn't like Adam's constant crying and I don't like Gabby's constant crying (although I give Adam a bit of a pass given the circumstances and potential producer intervention).

That doesn't mean, however, I don't like the two of them.  I adored Adam and thought he played an amazing game and deserved the win by a mile.

I also really like Gabby and understand the constant whining is likely not representative of how she is outside the game.    And in fact, I think she's grown more confident as time has gone on which is a good sign.  The Carl vote is a good example, I think. 

Edited December 3, 2018 by Jextella

[violet and green]

I also really, really liked Gabby, up until that last episode. Now I hates her with the force of an undying sun! The crying didn't bother me with her, because I could see she was an emotional person who expressed how she was feeling, which to me is a good thing; but to get all spiteful on hearing she was not included in the direction of the vote - because she was close to Alison and would have conniptions if she knew... I don't see that as confidence, I see that as reactive and entitled. Because the reality is, she would have carried on wailing and nooooo!ing if they'd said, it's Alison, and who has time for that level of drama in the camp day in day out. I think it was maybe misguided to want to keep her out of it, c/- the result, but I guess no-one expected Christian to be that emotionally incontinent or that easily exploited.

[peachmangosteen]

4 hours ago, kikaha said:

Getting shit from some people on this forum.  Would she get shit from the jury?  I think it would be the opposite. 

I would be willing to bet she would, but if Gabby makes F3 (she likely won't) then I suspect the jury would give her shit no matter what moves she makes so I guess it's all irrelevant really.

[Jextella]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

I would be willing to bet she would, but if Gabby makes F3 (she likely won't) then I suspect the jury would give her shit no matter what moves she makes so I guess it's all irrelevant really.

I do like Gabby, but odds of her making F3 seem slim.  I think she might be next given the previews which seem to highlight the next bootee.

[Mark2]

2 hours ago, violet and green said:

I think Gabby has a snowball's chance in hell of winning this thing, however it plays out from here.

True.  That thought made me wonder if any of this season's personalities realize they can't win, and they are consciously playing for second.  Is there a rule that you have to be 100% honest in the confessionals?

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

I would be willing to bet she would, but if Gabby makes F3 (she likely won't) then I suspect the jury would give her shit no matter what moves she makes so I guess it's all irrelevant really.

If Nick and Davie take Carl's ouster in stride, and if the Davids wind up in the majority this Wednesday, I bet Gabby goes to the final 4, if not 3.  That is continuing to assume her 'Christian must go' shtick is a ruse.  If it's not, she's gone within two weeks.  Too many other people to take with you to the final 3.

18 minutes ago, Jextella said:

I do like Gabby, but odds of her making F3 seem slim.  I think she might be next given the previews which seem to highlight the next bootee.

That would be quite the risk for a David to flip and put themselves in the minority.  But I do see Gabby being a potential target if she can't convince the Goliaths to take out Christian.

Edited December 3, 2018 by Mark2

[Nashville]

I don’t think a Gabby blindside of Christian would necessarily doom Gabby.  Gabby has to recognize the apparently widespread impression among the rest of the players that she’s being “managed” by Christian, which means Gabby wouldn’t stand a chance in hell of defeating Christian at FTC - so a Christian elimination is a game necessity for her, and probably would be recognized as such by the Jury.  

The critical issue for Gabby, therefore, is not ‘if’ - it’s ‘when’.  And that’s where I think from the viewpoint of what is best for Gabby’s game, a Christian eviction at the next TC would be entirely too early.  F4 or F5 would be infinitely preferable, unless a villain spin is Gabby’s actual intention.

[LadyChatts]

I think Gabby's biggest problem is that ultimately, she's just not going to be well liked by the jury.  Unless she does something totally game shattering, I think her association with Christian and tears are going to come back to bite her.  Whether she gets Christian next week or the week before, I just don't see her having a ton of support in the jury.  Carl seemed cool in Ponderosa, but I do think he will be bitter depending on whose in the final 3.  It's hard to say with the rest of them.  I think that no matter what, she's just not getting a win.

She is someone I'd love to see get a second chance, though.  I think she'd learn from her first time around.

[Jextella]

I'm having a hard time believing Gabby will flip on Christian - at least not now.   There are still quite a few players left in the game and I think she still needs him - at least for another vote or two.   As someone posted earlier, I think the previews are taking us off course somehow.

There are still a ton of unknowns that could impact the game, i.e. immunity challenges and possibly another idol to find. 

[marys1000]

16 hours ago, violet and green said:

 I think Christian just significantly lowered his chances of getting anywhere near smelling distance of the final TC, by betraying his David alliance at this point - for Gabby.

I think they both tanked their games by getting Carl out then and in the manner they did. But only Christian lost a chance to win the whole shebang. Aside from reducing their numbers advantage, Nick and Davie may kind of forgive, but not forget, being betrayed like this, and will likely now feel more comfortable returning play and ejecting the major threat of Christian sooner rather than later. 

Yes and its not the first time that Christian has wrapped his game around protecting Gabby.  He may see her as a goat to sit next to him at FTC but I don't even see that.  I mean what's he going to do?  Sit next to Gabby and tell everyone she woulnd't be there except for him, that he carried her the whole way?  Based on what seem to be real feelings I don't think he'd do that.  Not that he would have to but there is some risk, albeit very small, of someone bitter like Carl (and yes I think Carl could easily go bitter) throwing a vote at Gabby just to say hey Christian, see what putting her first gets you. 

15 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

But I think Nick, Carl, and Davey totally mismanaged the situation by not bringing Gabby into the fold, and putting Christian in an awkward spot knowing how close they were.  They should have just been up front with Gabby about wanting to vote out Alison.  Instead, Angelina inserted herself in with the Davids and Carl was letting Kara in on votes before Gabby.  So maybe Christian blew it by just going with Gabby and her emotions, but I don't believe Nick, Carl, or Davey did anything to help ease their confidence.  So I'd argue they are partly to blame for the vote.  And whether Carl really would have booted Gabby at the next TC or he's just playing revisionist history now I don't know, but if that was the case, clearly they made the right choice.  However, I'm always skeptical when I hear comments like that in exit interviews.

 

But they know Gabby.  And as edited so far I've seen three things from Gabby.  Save me tears, he's after me so we have to get him out, and talk around camp about not being included, cliques, being on the outs etc.  They would have to believe that if anyone went for the two people she is close to, Christian and Allison, that she would flip...out.  Of course, yes earlier they could (all) have tried to make her feel more included.  But...my impression is that Gabby is seen a bit as a never ending pit of self fullfilling prophecy re not being one of the cool kids.  The amount of constant reassurance needed does not strike me as something people want to get tangled up in.  Its all consuming and exhausting.   So they've just left it to Christian.  

15 hours ago, Jextella said:

 Gabby is just sort of whining because the big kids haven't asked her to play.  Sorry, but that's how I see it.

 

Yes.  And its not like I don't get this.  I did the same thing once in a professional environment.  Most of the building was one "profession".  I was the only one of my "profession" in the building.  People tended to socialize by groups as they do but I didn't have one.  So I whined.  And all it did was make things worse.  Its hard, but she's a grown woman in a 39 day game, even if its true (and I do think it is) poking the brochachos in camp with talk about their clique etc isn;t going to get you anywhere.   

15 hours ago, violet and green said:

 because she was close to Alison and would have conniptions if she knew... I don't see that as confidence, I see that as reactive and entitled. Because the reality is, she would have carried on wailing and nooooo!ing if they'd said, it's Alison, and who has time for that level of drama in the camp day in day out. I think it was maybe misguided to want to keep her out of it, c/- the result, but I guess no-one expected Christian to be that emotionally incontinent or that easily exploited.

Yes, although I don't really see it as entitled.  But her game has been really reactive and exactly, who has time for that (besides Christian and Allison I guess).  And yes Christian is going to great lengths with Gabby and I can't figure out if he knows he is tanking his game or if he sees this as a strategic move somehow.  Who is Christians final 3 and why?

Where are we in the FTC count for idols?  This whole Christian thing might make sense somehow if the idol is involved?  If its the last chance to use it so use it for a move sort of thing.  But if there is more time left to play it I'm not so sure. 

Edited December 3, 2018 by marys1000

[peachmangosteen]

23 minutes ago, marys1000 said:

Where are we in the FTC count for idols?  This whole Christian thing might make sense somehow if the idol is involved?  If its the last chance to use it so use it for a move sort of thing.  But if there is more time left to play it I'm not so sure. 

You can use the HII all the way through the F5 TC, so Christian has plenty of TCs left to use it.

[jay741982]

On 11/29/2018 at 6:04 AM, MissEwa said:

This. I don't know about timing either, and I'm sure it won't happen in the next episode, but she's not an idiot for thinking it needs to happen at some point. 

Or a bitch either. I mean, are we really still doing that 'woman who plays anything but a nice clean social game = bitch' thing? 

Nah shes not a Bitch, just foolish If she wants to spearhead Christian being booted. Her target increases and she's probably be next. Like someone else mentioned no one is gonna want to save her 

[Eolivet]

Apropos of nothing, Jeff highlighted how Angelina hasn't won a reward or been on a reward since the merge, so I predict that for the "all-important" family visit, that streak ends -- she either wins it or gets picked to go on it. There was no reason to bring it up last episode otherwise -- it's such a bizarre non-sequitur (especially since it wasn't accompanied by "the first time in Survivor history") unless it has later relevance to the plot. And Survivor tends to stick to immediate foreshadowing, as opposed to Chekov's Reward Drought.

[Coco88]

I really am worried about Davey this coming episode.  I think I remember a scene from when he found his idol where he gives a confessional saying something like the idol will help him make it to the loved-ones visit.  Possibly foreshadowing that’s as far as he will make it.

[Jextella]

On 12/2/2018 at 9:08 PM, LadyChatts said:

I think Gabby's biggest problem is that ultimately, she's just not going to be well liked by the jury.  Unless she does something totally game shattering, I think her association with Christian and tears are going to come back to bite her.  Whether she gets Christian next week or the week before, I just don't see her having a ton of support in the jury.  Carl seemed cool in Ponderosa, but I do think he will be bitter depending on whose in the final 3.  It's hard to say with the rest of them.  I think that no matter what, she's just not getting a win.

She is someone I'd love to see get a second chance, though.  I think she'd learn from her first time around.

1

One thing about Gabby that I really like is that she is there to play the game.  She's a huge fan and has played hard.  I like the video below.

Gabby actually has a great resume compared to many who remain.  She's orchestrated several votes. 

Edited December 4, 2018 by Jextella

[ProfCrash]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/survivor-david-goliath-gabby-crying-drama-carl-blindside-more-1165698

 

Gabby mid season interview

[truthaboutluv]

1 hour ago, ProfCrash said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/survivor-david-goliath-gabby-crying-drama-carl-blindside-more-1165698

 

Gabby mid season interview

All I truly got from that interview was that it solidified my opinion that her going after Christian and especially at this point in the game would be incredibly stupid. Because she more or less confirms what the editing has shown in saying she saw herself at the bottom of the Davids because the other guys weren't close to her. And then she says nothing regarding any potential relationship/friendship with Angelina or Kara. And she basically confirms also that yes, Christian has had her back and protected her heavily.

So again, where does Gabby go in this game if she blindsides Christian? What numbers would she possibly have to get her to the end? I guess she can try and mobilize a female alliance and convince Kara, Alison, Angelina to band together and get out Mike, Nick and Davie. And if she does that, brilliant. But then I predict that that would give Kara, Alison and Angelina more reason to boot her before the final tribal council. 

[ProfCrash]

She might not have been able to say anything and her relationship with Alison, Kara, or Angelina because it would mean discussing something that we have not seen yet.  Her interview was focused on past events and what we have seen. Asking about her relationship with the other Davids is fair game because there is a long term relationship there and past alliance.

What I got from that interview is that Gabby knew she was on the bottom of the alliance and that the other Davids were not treating her like an equal. She needed to do something to shift her from a guaranteed bottom spot and make it clear to everyone that she is playing in this game. I think Christian knows that, she has worked most closely with them. I suspect that Alison, Mike, and Kara know that Gabby is playing. But Carl, Davie and Nick blew off Gabby and in doing so, hurt their game.

Gabby has not found idols or advantages and has been in the minority for most of this game. She is aware that she needs to make moves in order to compensate for her lack of idols and advantages, which she did try and look for at the merge feast. Carl, David and Nick marginalized her in their alliance. Gabby made her move. Hopefully it works for Her and Christian but it might not. She is playing, just like Alec and others this season. She is not sitting back and trying to coast to anything. I appreciate that.

 

ETA: LOL I thought at the following chain of events but, I was at a briefing this morning. Leadership was going way off track, discussion of definitions and the like, instead of the main thrust of the brief. I stepped in and said "Sir, the report was getting at X. Y and Z are not problematic or the core of this report." And I got "ProfCrash is correct and makes a good point." Because Senior leadership acknowledge that my point was on point and I am a women. Two other men had said the same thing a few minutes earlier and he ignored them. It made me giggle. And think of this board. I might need a life.

Edited December 4, 2018 by ProfCrash

[peachmangosteen]

New promo:

 

Loved ones RC clip:

[LadyChatts]

Yeah, I guess that spells the end of Mason/Dixon.  But seriously, I still say Nick, Davie, and especially Carl made a stupid move and are at least partly to blame for Christian/Gabby turning on them.

[Jextella]

2 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Yeah, I guess that spells the end of Mason/Dixon.  But seriously, I still say Nick, Davie, and especially Carl made a stupid move and are at least partly to blame for Christian/Gabby turning on them.

Totally agree.  And I don't think Gabby's decision was a dumb one for HER game.  She knew she was on the bottom of the Davids for a long time and it made complete sense to try to "escape" from their clutches.

The one whose game will suffer is Christian.

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, Jextella said:

Totally agree.  And I don't think Gabby's decision was a dumb one for HER game.  She knew she was on the bottom of the Davids for a long time and it made complete sense to try to "escape" from their clutches.

The one whose game will suffer is Christian.

I hope that Christian at least brings up the reasoning why they voted the way they did-not just that Carl was being bossy and wanting to get his own way, but that he and Gabby felt they weren't part of the alliance anymore, and therefore worried about their chances.  I'm sure either way Nick will be pissed and just blow him off, but I don't necessarily think it was a terrible decision.  Yes, it may now cost Christian, but he might have been screwed either way.  If Carl was telling the truth about targeting Gabby next, I do wonder if Nick and Davie would have gone along with that and if they were aware that was his plan.

[TVFan1]

After seeing the preview, I'm wondering if the next time on Survivor promo is not a misdirect. Maybe Gabby does make a move and blindsides Christian somehow.

[Jextella]

6 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Yeah, I guess that spells the end of Mason/Dixon.  But seriously, I still say Nick, Davie, and especially Carl made a stupid move and are at least partly to blame for Christian/Gabby turning on them.

I don't know if Gabby or Christian were ever truly "in" with Nick, Davie, and Carl. 

Nick was the one who had the relationship with Christian - and Gabby comes with Christian which Nick reluctantly dealt with.  In fact, he said very early on that he wanted Gabby out because she comes between him and his alliance with Christian.  

I think Nick had a secondary alliance with Davie.  Carl comes with Davie. Carl wasn't a threat the way Gabby was and easier to work with as a result.

They are all Davids and had to work together at times but I'm not sure it was a true and cohesive group the way some might think, i.e. Carl.

2 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

After seeing the preview, I'm wondering if the next time on Survivor promo is not a misdirect. Maybe Gabby does make a move and blindsides Christian somehow.

Ya never know!  

Edited December 5, 2018 by Jextella

[LadyChatts]

4 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

After seeing the preview, I'm wondering if the next time on Survivor promo is not a misdirect. Maybe Gabby does make a move and blindsides Christian somehow.

I'm so nervous for tomorrow, for this very reason :(  The way the editing has gone this season, I don't know what to expect.  So many people are saying no way Christian is going because of the preview, that TPTB wouldn't openly put in the preview the person who is voted off.  Yet, because everyone believes that, maybe they would for that very reason.

If a former Goliath goes, I'm thinking maybe Kara because she seemed to come out of nowhere with her edit and wanting to play the game.  Alison, I'm not entirely sure why she's seems to be a target, but she does have a relationship with Gabby and has proven to be a physical threat.  I just feel like there's more going on with her than we've seen.  Angelina, I know I won't get that lucky, but her 9 lives might finally be up.  She could over play her hand or try too hard to take control.  Mike's the only one I feel might be safe; he doesn't seem to be a threat to anyone.  The only argument I can make is he does flip flop, but being in a situation where there's 8 people left, his vote might be crucial.  

If a David goes, I'm more up in the air because I think there's a case to be made for all of them as to why they'd be safe or in danger.  If Gabby does try to blindside Christian, that could cause him to play his idol, and the vote turn on her.  Davie has proven to be a physical threat and has played a decent strategic/social game.  Plus, he isn't someone that I feel would necessarily see the vote coming at this point so he might be deemed a safe pick to go after.  Nick has played a good strategic and social game, but if he goes after Christian hard core that could turn it around on him; he also might feel too overconfident.  And Christian is likable and with my luck he would go.  Hopefully the IC is another endurance so he can literally talk people into dropping out.

I find this cast pretty enjoyable so I'm probably going to miss whoever does get their torch snuffed.  Right now I'd lean towards Kara, Gabby, or Christian.  

Edited December 5, 2018 by LadyChatts