S37: David vs. Goliath: Previews & Speculation without Spoilers

[TVFan1]

2 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

Well the preview actually makes it seem like they'll try to go for Christian again. We only see Mike saying to Christian that he's not sure Gabby is committed to their alliance of six but when the Goliath group is talking, it sounds like they're discussing a guy and there's a shot of Dan saying it may be hashtag "brochachos over" or something like that. Well the brochachos is him, John and Christian and I don't think he's going after John. Or maybe he is. 

Totally just remembered that part. Christian going is a possibility. I hope not, though.

[LadyChatts]

I think Christian going will be a red herring.  Of course that's mostly wishful thinking, but I just think he's been too big of a character with too much going on to go just yet (then again, maybe they are setting him up for an alumni season).  If he catches wind of them plotting against him-because he does have Mike and Alec on his side-he could always flip on Alec if it came down to it.  The Goliaths would still be up a number even if Alec went, but they may figure that's the straw that broke the camel's back for him.  Christian would be quite a blindside though, considering he is a big character and has deals everywhere.

I think it could be Davie or Carl though.  It's possible Gabby is a target by the Goliath 4.  This season has so much promise, so I'm hoping to get through one more episode of a potential predictable David boot, and then the blindsides on the Goliaths start happening.

[truthaboutluv]

Not sure what the rule is on discussing exit interviews in the episode thread, so going to err on the side of caution and discuss Elizabeth's interview here. She came off pretty well and I liked how serious she said she took being in the jury and wanting to award the person who played the best game because she hated the juries who got petty and mad because they were voted out. 

The most interesting thing that came out of her interview was her stating that Carl was the one who cemented her fate. She basically says that while it hurt that all the Davids voted for her, she wasn't surprised because she said right before tribal council, when she tried to talk to Carl and push the going after Angelina plan, he started loudly yelling that he didn't want to talk to her and didn't want to hear anything, etc. Apparently, the way Elizabeth sees it, that was to solidify to the Goliaths that he was sticking to the plan to get rid of her.

According to her, before that conversation, the other Davids were entertaining the talk and discussing how things could blow up at tribal council if she put Angelina on blast and maybe get one Goliath to flip. But she said once Carl had that reaction, it solidified to the Goliaths that if one of her own fellow Davids wouldn't go to bat for her, why would they flip on their own. And according to her, he solidified that same attitude again at the tribal council because according to her, things were tense for awhile and Alison was really pissed at Angelina and there was all this conversation going around. But when it came back around to Carl, he was still solid on voting out Elizabeth.

She actually says she was surprised at his animosity towards her because even if they didn't get along, she didn't realize it was that bad between them. 

[LadyChatts]

I wonder if maybe Alec was trying to flip the vote at TC, but Carl refused.  There was a lot of whispering going on, so I'm curious what was all said that still led to Elizabeth getting voted out unanimously.  It did cross my mind that Carl might have been a stick in the mud and refused to save Elizabeth, even if there were some potential flippers.  I'm not sure if Mike or Allison would have gone for it, and if Alec didn't have them, he couldn't really be the lone wolf that went rogue.  

I do hope it gets brought up again, because I am very curious, but it'll probably only be Angelina that gets asked.  As time goes on there's going to be more stuff to talk about.  

[OutOfTheQuestion]

We did see that scene in the show of Carl wanting to get Elizabeth out, so it seems like there's some truth to Elizabeth's story.  Seems like a short-sighted move from Carl since now the Davids are in an even bigger numbers hole, though we know so little about what he's doing strategy-wise (same with Davie, who was invisible all episode) that I'm not sure what the plan is.  Maybe they're on board with Alec, since Davie already teamed up with him to eliminate Natalia?

[LanceM]

From what Elizabeth has been saying in her exit press today, Carl apparently has not gotten over the fact that Elizabeth voted out Jessica and therefore refused to work with her.

[SVNBob]

17 hours ago, phlebas said:

I want Davie to play his idol to save Carl but there's a miscommunication and Carl nullifies it.

Why/How would Carl play the Nullifier on himself?

The Nullifier is put in the urn with the votes with a name attached to it.  Any idols played for that person become nullified.  Even if there's a miscommunication, Carl wouldn't nullify his own potential immunity.

[MissEwa]

3 minutes ago, SVNBob said:

 Any idols played for that person become nullified.  

Do we have "official" clarification on this, does anyone know? If multiple idols were played for one person (say Dan played both the ones he has for himself), would they *all* be nullified, or just one? 

[SVNBob]

4 minutes ago, MissEwa said:

Do we have "official" clarification on this, does anyone know?  If multiple idols were played for one person (say Dan played both the ones he has for himself), would they *all* be nullified, or just one? 

We're not exactly sure, but based on the rules of the HII and now the Nullifier, I think so.  But not exactly in the same manner.  As I see it, the timeline of events would appear to go as follows:

1. Peachy says "It is...timetovote.  (Person X), you're up."
2. During the voting, Person N (with the Nullifier) plays the Nullifier on Person I (who, for the sake of this example, does have two idols).  To do so, they put the Nullifier in the urn with name "Person I" attached.
3. The majority, including Person N, does vote for Person I.
4. Peachy says "I'll go tally the votes."  During this time, he sees the Nullifier in the urn and notes who it was played on.
5. Peachy returns to his stand and says "If anybody has a/the HII and wants to play it, now would be the time to do so.", opening the window for idol plays.
6. Person I plays one idol on themself.  The majority looks annoyed at this turn of events...except for Person N.
7. The HII window is closed.
8. (Presumably) Peachy reaches into the urn and pulls out the Nullifier, explaining what it is and who it was played on, thus cancelling the idol played by Person I.
9. Peachy reads the votes, counting those for Person I
10. Person I is voted out with a second idol in their pocket.

The bold statements are the key.  There is only a limited window in which to play an idol, and it closes before Peachy reads the votes.  And no idols can be played once Peachy starts reading the votes. (Exception: the "Super" Idols, aka the Tyler Perry Idol, aka how the HII's originally worked.)  So anyone with multiple idols has to play them within the window.  And as far as we know, they can't play two idols on the same person.  But then, before the Nullifier existed, why would anyone even think do that?  So there technically may not be a rule (yet) about stacking HIIs on a single player.  The only reason we're thinking of this is that we know A) the Nullifier exists and B) someone does have multiple idols.

So I'm presuming all idols for a single player get Nullified (this season at least), because they'll only play the one, and the other will become null as they get voted out.

[MissEwa]

2 minutes ago, SVNBob said:

We're not exactly sure, but based on the rules of the HII and now the Nullifier, I think so.  But not exactly in the same manner.  As I see it, the timeline of events would appear to go as follows:

1. Peachy says "It is...timetovote.  (Person X), you're up."
2. During the voting, Person N (with the Nullifier) plays the Nullifier on Person I (who, for the sake of this example, does have two idols).  To do so, they put the Nullifier in the urn with name "Person I" attached.
3. The majority, including Person N, does vote for Person I.
4. Peachy says "I'll go tally the votes."  During this time, he sees the Nullifier in the urn and notes who it was played on.
5. Peachy returns to his stand and says "If anybody has a/the HII and wants to play it, now would be the time to do so.", opening the window for idol plays.
6. Person I plays one idol on themself.  The majority looks annoyed at this turn of events...except for Person N.
7. The HII window is closed.
8. (Presumably) Peachy reaches into the urn and pulls out the Nullifier, explaining what it is and who it was played on, thus cancelling the idol played by Person I.
9. Peachy reads the votes, counting those for Person I
10. Person I is voted out with a second idol in their pocket.

The bold statements are the key.  There is only a limited window in which to play an idol, and it closes before Peachy reads the votes.  And no idols can be played once Peachy starts reading the votes. (Exception: the "Super" Idols, aka the Tyler Perry Idol, aka how the HII's originally worked.)  So anyone with multiple idols has to play them within the window.  And as far as we know, they can't play two idols on the same person.  But then, before the Nullifier existed, why would anyone even think do that?  So there technically may not be a rule (yet) about stacking HIIs on a single player.  The only reason we're thinking of this is that we know A) the Nullifier exists and B) someone does have multiple idols.

So I'm presuming all idols for a single player get Nullified (this season at least), because they'll only play the one, and the other will become null as they get voted out.

But if word were to get out that there was a nullifier in play - or in future seasons, given people will know it's a possibility after this season - could someone play two idols for one person in that window between 5 and 7? And if so, would one be null, or both? 

(I don't expect you to know specifically, I'm more curious if this is something that there have been any rules clarified on. The wording 'all idols played for that person are null' indicates it's ALL idols, but 'this advantage gives you the power to nullify AN idol' suggests its one, so I'm kind of curious.)

[SVNBob]

1 hour ago, MissEwa said:

But if word were to get out that there was a nullifier in play - or in future seasons, given people will know it's a possibility after this season - could someone play two idols for one person in that window between 5 and 7? And if so, would one be null, or both? 

Honestly, that's a question to ask Jeff on Twitter.  It may not be anything TPTB have considered yet, but will need to before too long.

[RescueMom]

Can someone remind me if Dan made a comment back in Episode 1 that Kara is his Kryptonite? I seem to recall that, and with him blabbing to her about his second idol 3 seconds after the merge, it makes me wonder if she is going to be his downfall in the game somehow. She does seem pretty solid with him though, so maybe not. But it sure feels like he is being edited for a fall with those idols somehow.

[SVNBob]

25 minutes ago, RescueMom said:

Can someone remind me if Dan made a comment back in Episode 1 that Kara is his Kryptonite?

He did indeed say that.  Verbatim.

[ProfCrash]

4 hours ago, SVNBob said:

We're not exactly sure, but based on the rules of the HII and now the Nullifier, I think so.  But not exactly in the same manner.  As I see it, the timeline of events would appear to go as follows:

1. Peachy says "It is...timetovote.  (Person X), you're up."
2. During the voting, Person N (with the Nullifier) plays the Nullifier on Person I (who, for the sake of this example, does have two idols).  To do so, they put the Nullifier in the urn with name "Person I" attached.
3. The majority, including Person N, does vote for Person I.
4. Peachy says "I'll go tally the votes."  During this time, he sees the Nullifier in the urn and notes who it was played on.
5. Peachy returns to his stand and says "If anybody has a/the HII and wants to play it, now would be the time to do so.", opening the window for idol plays.
6. Person I plays one idol on themself.  The majority looks annoyed at this turn of events...except for Person N.
7. The HII window is closed.
8. (Presumably) Peachy reaches into the urn and pulls out the Nullifier, explaining what it is and who it was played on, thus cancelling the idol played by Person I.
9. Peachy reads the votes, counting those for Person I
10. Person I is voted out with a second idol in their pocket.

The bold statements are the key.  There is only a limited window in which to play an idol, and it closes before Peachy reads the votes.  And no idols can be played once Peachy starts reading the votes. (Exception: the "Super" Idols, aka the Tyler Perry Idol, aka how the HII's originally worked.)  So anyone with multiple idols has to play them within the window.  And as far as we know, they can't play two idols on the same person.  But then, before the Nullifier existed, why would anyone even think do that?  So there technically may not be a rule (yet) about stacking HIIs on a single player.  The only reason we're thinking of this is that we know A) the Nullifier exists and B) someone does have multiple idols.

So I'm presuming all idols for a single player get Nullified (this season at least), because they'll only play the one, and the other will become null as they get voted out.

That is how I read the situation.

 

4 hours ago, MissEwa said:

But if word were to get out that there was a nullifier in play - or in future seasons, given people will know it's a possibility after this season - could someone play two idols for one person in that window between 5 and 7? And if so, would one be null, or both? 

We don't know. I have not read the info on the nullifier if it clearly says that it nullifies one idol played for someone or all idols played for someone. I wonder if they even thought about that as a possibility because it is rare for a player to have multiple idols. Yes, it happens, but not all that frequently.

[phlebas]

9 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Why/How would Carl play the Nullifier on himself?

The Nullifier is put in the urn with the votes with a name attached to it.  Any idols played for that person become nullified.  Even if there's a miscommunication, Carl wouldn't nullify his own potential immunity.

What I'm not clear on is which way does the nullifier work.

• You nullify an idol played ON the person you select.
• You nullify an idol played BY the person you select.

In the second option, Carl could easily nullify an idol played on him.

It's probably more likely the first option is the correct one, but I think the second one is more interesting. 

I might just be brain-cramping and this was clarified when Carl found the thing.

[ProfCrash]

I believe it is you nullify an played on a person. So Dan could play the idol on Kara and Carl could nullify it by writing Kara's name on the nullifier. At least, that is how I remember it from the episode.

[Nashville]

2 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

I believe it is you nullify an played on a person. So Dan could play the idol on Kara and Carl could nullify it by writing Kara's name on the nullifier. At least, that is how I remember it from the episode.

That’s how I understood it - the Nullifier strips idol protection from the target, regardless of the direction from which that protection comes (a person playing a HII on themself, or somebody else playing a HII on them).

[SVNBob]

Found a still from when Carl found the Nullifier that shows the full rule page (minus a few letters or small words where Carl's hand is blocking the shot.)

https://imgur.com/a/9qiVviI

11 hours ago, Nashville said:

That’s how I understood it - the Nullifier strips idol protection from the target, regardless of the direction from which that protection comes (a person playing a HII on themself, or somebody else playing a HII on them).

Per that page, this is correct. 

Note that it also spells out what happens if no idol is played: Nullifier is left in the urn and not removed; its power wasted (until it goes to Ghost Island and...)

Also of note, there will be no indication of who played the Nullifier, if they are successful.  Only that it was played and played properly.

[MisterBluxom]

Removed. Off Topic.

Edited November 11, 2018 by MissBluxom

[peachmangosteen]

5 hours ago, himela said:

I was trying to understand why Alec chose these people to align with ...

I was thinking about that too and wondered if maybe he was closer to Mike and/or Alison on the original Goliath tribe than we were lead to believe. It just seems odd that the very first day of the merge he would align with 3 people he'd never even been on a tribe with and 2 people he was never shown to be close to/aligned with on his original tribe. But then he seems kind of erratic with his game play. Voting out Natalia appears to have worked out OK for him, but that was a very risky and stupid move. Maybe your spec that he did it because he found those people physically weaker than him is correct. Hell, he might just find them weak overall and he might be someone who wants to be the leader in the alliance and he saw he never would be in any alliance that involved Dan, Angelina, and John.

[peachmangosteen]

Saw a promo today really hyping up tomorrow's ep. Something about a surprise ending. Also, Nick is shown in a confessional holding a parchment, so I'm assuming he gets some kind of advantage. He says something like, "What is it?!" though, so maybe something new.

Also, there's two sneak peaks. I haven't watched either yet, so I'm not sure what they entail.

[LadyChatts]

Sneak peek #1 is Mike/Christian talking on the beach about Angelina and TC.  Christian talks about the secret six alliance he has.  Sneak peek #2 is for the RC, and might I add that is a gross looking slice of pizza they showed.  

Why do I get the impression that "surprise ending" is going to be "horrible ending" and Christian winds up getting voted out?  I'm sure since he's been such a big presence they would justify that as a surprise, since the editing isn't the same old, same old this season.

Please let it be a Goliath going home.  Preferably Angelina, but I'll take any of that tight foursome that thinks they have the end game in the bag.  

[TVFan1]

Doesn't John mention a brochacho blindside in the preview? Maybe the preview is hinting that he's the one that gets voted out instead.  I hope it's not Christian either.

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, TVFan1 said:

Doesn't John mention a brochacho blindside in the preview? Maybe the preview is hinting that he's the one that gets voted out instead.  I hope it's not Christian either.

I hadn't thought of that, but maybe!  I'd rather it be Dan, because as entertaining as he is to me, he has two idols.  And I'd rather he go with both of them in his pocket.

I'm not going to rule out Alec, either, because his double dealings have to catch up with him at some point.  If Christian is feeling the heat maybe he turns on Alec and his 6 person alliance?  Or maybe goes after Mike?  No one in the 4 really has any ties with Mike other than he was a Goliath.

[jay741982]

On 11/9/2018 at 5:46 AM, RescueMom said:

Can someone remind me if Dan made a comment back in Episode 1 that Kara is his Kryptonite? I seem to recall that, and with him blabbing to her about his second idol 3 seconds after the merge, it makes me wonder if she is going to be his downfall in the game somehow. She does seem pretty solid with him though, so maybe not. But it sure feels like he is being edited for a fall with those idols somehow.

Weren't Kara and Alec the ones who got in trouble for Spolier Content? Maybe Dan gets Alec Blindsided and for some Crazy reason Kara gets Pissed off and helps get him  booted

[LadyChatts]

Next week's preview is kind of interesting, though I think it's all a red herring again that the Goliaths might break up.  Was it Kara running off on her own in the night and saying she had to separate herself?  The Davids thankfully have 2 advantages, but Dan has an idol.  

[TVFan1]

For once, I hope the preview is not misleading. This whole "Goliath Strong" mentality is annoying me. I see Alison is talking to Gabby next week. It probably won't amount to much, but I can dream.

[303420]

23 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

Doesn't John mention a brochacho blindside in the preview? Maybe the preview is hinting that he's the one that gets voted out instead.  I hope it's not Christian either.

NAILED IT!

21 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I hadn't thought of that, but maybe!  I'd rather it be Dan, because as entertaining as he is to me, he has two idols.  And I'd rather he go with both of them in his pocket.

If he hadn't won immunity, I bet it would have been.

The previews showing Kara wanting to distance from Dan strike me as misleading, so I'm betting on another David exit next week. Unfortunately I think it's most likely to be Davie or Carl, who have been visible but not stars. Davie in particular has been underedited compared to the move he dropped this week, so if I were a bettor, I'd put my money on Davie to go next week.

[Fiftyninth]

On 11/10/2018 at 2:18 AM, SVNBob said:

Found a still from when Carl found the Nullifier that shows the full rule page (minus a few letters or small words where Carl's hand is blocking the shot.)

https://imgur.com/a/9qiVviI

Per that page, this is correct. 

Note that it also spells out what happens if no idol is played: Nullifier is left in the urn and not removed; its power wasted (until it goes to Ghost Island and...)

Also of note, there will be no indication of who played the Nullifier, if they are successful.  Only that it was played and played properly.

I don’t think it necessarily blocks all possible idols played on that nullified person, though, because during the HII window, Jeff says “this is a real idol, and any votes cast against [__] don’t count.” But he wouldn’t say votes don’t count if the idol is nullified.

Now, I cant say whether he would say “however, this idol has been nullified and votes cast against [__] do count,” or if he just wouldn’t specify about the votes counting/not counting. But I think that does leave open the possibility that a second idol play might be triggered by Jeff’s response. 

[SVNBob]

1 minute ago, Fiftyninth said:

I don’t think it necessarily blocks all possible idols played on that nullified person, though, because during the HII window, Jeff says “this is a real idol, and any votes cast against [__] don’t count.” But he wouldn’t say votes don’t count if the idol is nullified.

Now, I cant say whether he would say “however, this idol has been nullified and votes cast against [__] do count,” or if he just wouldn’t specify about the votes counting/not counting. But I think that does leave open the possibility that a second idol play might be triggered by Jeff’s response. 

It could go either way.  There's just enough variance in the possibilities, and we, the audience hive mind, have more brain power to think of these unusual cases of advantage interactions than TPTB do.  Not that they didn't; we just come to the ideas faster with more people to bounce thoughts off of.

But with the events of tonight's episode, this question can be set aside in the realm of the truly hypothetical.  At least, for now.

[LadyChatts]

2 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

For once, I hope the preview is not misleading. This whole "Goliath Strong" mentality is annoying me. I see Alison is talking to Gabby next week. It probably won't amount to much, but I can dream.

I think at this point Kara/Angelina/Allison might team up, with Dan either too stupid to realize he'd be on the outs with the girls (or figuring he can immunity run it) so they will stick together.  Alec is a wild card, but Mike will likely try and stick with the Goliaths, because why should the Davids trust him?  Either way, Mike is screwed.  We did see Allison talk to Gabby about getting Dan out back with Tiva.  It'll be interesting if Kara blabs to anyone that Dan has a second idol, and maybe (hopefully) it gets back to Carl so he can use the nullifier.  Christian's been such an obvious target that the Goliaths might switch and go after someone more unassuming, like Gabby, who hasn't really been a target and has reason to be at this point.

It has been just such a good season so far, and I don't want to see a Pagonging happen to ruin it.  But I won't be surprised if a David goes next week.

[Jextella]

12 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I think at this point Kara/Angelina/Allison might team up, with Dan either too stupid to realize he'd be on the outs with the girls (or figuring he can immunity run it) so they will stick together.  Alec is a wild card, but Mike will likely try and stick with the Goliaths, because why should the Davids trust him?  Either way, Mike is screwed.  We did see Allison talk to Gabby about getting Dan out back with Tiva.  It'll be interesting if Kara blabs to anyone that Dan has a second idol, and maybe (hopefully) it gets back to Carl so he can use the nullifier.  Christian's been such an obvious target that the Goliaths might switch and go after someone more unassuming, like Gabby, who hasn't really been a target and has reason to be at this point.

It has been just such a good season so far, and I don't want to see a Pagonging happen to ruin it.  But I won't be surprised if a David goes next week.

There seems to be quite a bit of talk about women wanting a stronger foothold in the game, e.g. the low percentage of women finding idols, etc.

It would not surprise me at all if the women banded to together at some point.

I'm probably in the minority, but I like Angelina.  She's really smart and I love how her mind thinks in terms of military strategy (whether or not she's merely channeling her husband).   

[Nashville]

14 hours ago, Fiftyninth said:

I don’t think it necessarily blocks all possible idols played on that nullified person, though, because during the HII window, Jeff says “this is a real idol, and any votes cast against [__] don’t count.” But he wouldn’t say votes don’t count if the idol is nullified.

Now, I cant say whether he would say “however, this idol has been nullified and votes cast against [__] do count,” or if he just wouldn’t specify about the votes counting/not counting. But I think that does leave open the possibility that a second idol play might be triggered by Jeff’s response. 

How?  The opportunity to play idols ends the moment Peachy pops the top on the Vote urn.  The Nullifier is in the urn, which means it (and its power) are not revealed until the chance to play a second idol is long gone.

[Mark2]

Greetings!

This is my first time watching Survivor since season 2.  I didn't like when the cast members (and Jeff) all started referring to it as a game, even though the term is accurate.

Anyway, yesterday was great!  I liked the Jackets and Eggs one about as much, but tribal was a lot more memorable yesterday (Idolpalooza!).  Very well played on the part of the former Davids.  Now they'll be able to even up the David/Goliath split next week with the change-a-vote.  Any speculation as to whether they knock off Mike (I hope not) or one of the other "Strike Force" Goliaths for turning on Christian?

I see Christian, Davie and Nick staying pretty close.  I wonder if they left Gabby out of their plan, or had such a deep strategy of giving Angelina votes on her record if she wasn't protected.  I thought they took past votes into account in tiebreakers...

Any bold predictions?  If I were them, I'd send Dan packing next week (strong at physical challenges), sparing Angelina for the following week since she's the most likely Goliath to flip a vote.  If that's how it goes down, and a former David wins immunity when it's down to 5, I predict Christian, Nick, Davie and Gabby for the final 4.

Also, do any of the Davids still have an immunity idol?

Edited November 16, 2018 by Mark2

[violet and green]

7 hours ago, Nashville said:

How?  The opportunity to play idols ends the moment Peachy pops the top on the Vote urn.  The Nullifier is in the urn, which means it (and its power) are not revealed until the chance to play a second idol is long gone.

Oh, gosh, I hope we get the chance to see this happen. So exciting! My hope is Kara does get cranky enough to blab to someone, like Alison, about Dan's second idol, and Alison rejoins the alliance with the Davids that Mike splintered.

[peachmangosteen]

11 hours ago, Mark2 said:

Now they'll be able to even up the David/Goliath split next week with the change-a-vote. 

This makes the most sense, but for some reason I just don't think it's gonna happen. But then I'm just waiting for this season to turn bad lol.

[KimberStormer]

I guess I don't see why it would suddenly be bad even if the Goliaths came out on top?  Like if they use the vote steal but Dan uses his second idol correctly and a David goes home, that would be a great tribal too?  And people like Angelina, Alec, and Mike are obviously playing and not going to sit idly by while they get picked off, so it will still be exciting?

I feel like you guys took Naviti Strong way too hard.  Like now it has to be, I don't know, an exactly equal balance of people from the original tribes every episode or the season is automatically garbage.  One tribe always comes out on top, or nearly always.  The internal dynamics still make it fun, as long as the ending isn't a foregone conclusion.  When I think of my favorite seasons, it's like: Micronesia: Favorites totally dominated.  HvV: Villains totally dominated.  China: Fei Long totally dominated.  In Philippines, Lisa even said "let's keep Tandang Strong" a bunch.  In Palau, Ulong didn't even exist!  And I mean, even in Ghost Island there were Malolos in the finale and in the F3.

The only thing that makes one tribe winning out bad is when there is a dominant person on that tribe who nobody will make a move against, a la Boston Rob in Redemption Island.  I can't see how that could happen here.  Who would it be?  I can't think of a single person on the Goliath tribe would be content to sit back and let someone else steamroll them -- if anyone it would be Dan, but somehow Dan is instead a nominal "leader" and gets pissy when other people (Angelina) try to direct the action.  Not only is there not a Boston Rob or a Kim Spradlin, there's not even a Jeremy Collins pulling the strings just behind the curtain.

I think we can chill out about the season turning bad.  It's like, too late for it to turn bad, IMO.

[ProfCrash]

I have no problem with a Goliath winning. I tend to get bored if there is an easy Pangoning during the merge. I get really annoyed with the people who play into tribe X Strong only because someone is at the bottom of that alliance and they need to do something to change that.

We don't have that this season. There are people looking to find different alliances, even if they have been crap in actually making any of them work. I want to see people trying to win, which means not blindly sticking to their original tribe. I have no problem if that makes sense, you are John and at the top of the alliance. But the people who are likely on the bottom, like Angelina and Alec should be looking to make some type of move. Alec is trying something, Angelina not so much.

[peachmangosteen]

3 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

I think we can chill out about the season turning bad.  It's like, too late for it to turn bad, IMO.

So many seasons lately have really entertained me for awhile and then just steadily got worse and worse as the season went on so I just kind of expect it now. There's still plenty of time for it to turn bad imo. It doesn't seem like it will, but again, they almost always do for me lol. 

I also am just waiting for someone I don't want to win to win, which usually happens lol, and that can kind of ruin the whole season for me sometimes.

There are quite a few that I wouldn't mind seeing win though, but that could change quickly. I change my mind from who I like and who I don't like pretty readily!

And honestly it doesn't seem like anyone else feels this way. Everyone seems really on board with this season. And I am, too. I have loved all but 1 ep. But that doesn't keep me from waiting for it to turn to shit. That's just my way!

[LadyChatts]

Quote

 

I guess I don't see why it would suddenly be bad even if the Goliaths came out on top?  Like if they use the vote steal but Dan uses his second idol correctly and a David goes home, that would be a great tribal too?  And people like Angelina, Alec, and Mike are obviously playing and not going to sit idly by while they get picked off, so it will still be exciting?

I feel like you guys took Naviti Strong way too hard.  Like now it has to be, I don't know, an exactly equal balance of people from the original tribes every episode or the season is automatically garbage.  One tribe always comes out on top, or nearly always.  The internal dynamics still make it fun, as long as the ending isn't a foregone conclusion.  When I think of my favorite seasons, it's like: Micronesia: Favorites totally dominated.  HvV: Villains totally dominated.  China: Fei Long totally dominated.  In Philippines, Lisa even said "let's keep Tandang Strong" a bunch.  In Palau, Ulong didn't even exist!  And I mean, even in Ghost Island there were Malolos in the finale and in the F3.

The only thing that makes one tribe winning out bad is when there is a dominant person on that tribe who nobody will make a move against, a la Boston Rob in Redemption Island.  I can't see how that could happen here.  Who would it be?  I can't think of a single person on the Goliath tribe would be content to sit back and let someone else steamroll them -- if anyone it would be Dan, but somehow Dan is instead a nominal "leader" and gets pissy when other people (Angelina) try to direct the action.  Not only is there not a Boston Rob or a Kim Spradlin, there's not even a Jeremy Collins pulling the strings just behind the curtain.

I think we can chill out about the season turning bad.  It's like, too late for it to turn bad, IMO.

 

I get bored when one tribe dominates, with some exceptions.  I think it depends how it comes about.  And I don't care for any Goliaths except Alec, who seems to be playing one of the strongest and hardest games out there.  Allison doesn't bug me either.  I'd have to disagree about Mike playing the game, because it seemed his reasoning for wanting Christian out was petty.  Also, he was willing to jump ship on what's presumed to be a solid secret six alliance and go back to an alliance that has a solid 4, people he wasn't aligned with and were actually targeting him back at their old camp during the first few days.  Kara is invisible and seems to just be there and act like she's got some hand in what's going on, Angelina is comic relief, and I don't think playing an entirely smart game, and Dan is a bit of a loose cannon who seems naïve and gullible.  I don't expect any of them to sit back and let themselves get picked off, which is why I appreciate the Davids banding together the last episode and pulling that vote off.  It was something the Goliaths clearly didn't expect.  Dan/John/Angelina/Kara thought that they were going to come into the merge and steam roll over the Davids.  Angelina is like a cat-she's running out of her 9 lives, but I haven't seen her do much to change that.  If no one knew about Dan's idol, I seriously question if he would have played it for her last week. 

At the end of the day, however, I just like the Davids as a group more.  It isn't so much because of tribal lines, but I just find them more likable and interesting.  In the case of HvsV, again, I liked the villains more, and they were down, but came back in a spectacular way.  I found Palau quite boring because Ulong decimated itself, even though it was fairly hilarious.  But I think they had such train wreck potential at the merge if more of them had made it.    

Ghost Island didn't go completely south for me because of Naviti strong.  A lot of it was editing and the waste of the Ghost Island twist, which might have worked out better if it was used every episode, and everything (including idols) were hidden there.  Plus, it was annoying that we went through several visits when a person got nothing.  

Edited November 17, 2018 by LadyChatts

[Nashville]

7 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

I think we can chill out about the season turning bad.  It's like, too late for it to turn bad, IMO.

Aw hell, we’re jinxed now!  :D

[LadyChatts]

So Nick lets all the Davids in on his secret advantage, and looks like Alec is making another side deal.

I'm wondering if the vote steal comes into play but backfires.  Dan would likely use his other idol, probably on himself if he felt he was the target.  I hate some advantages have to be used in front of everyone, but others (like Carl's) are essentially a guessing game and used behind the scenes.

[MissEwa]

IMO the best play for the Davids at this point is to use the vote steal and idol nullifier. The vote steal will take them up in numbers (from 5-6 down to 6-5 up) and the idol nullifer ensures they don't get bounceback from Dan's idol - and if they're lucky it will get played, especially if the Goliaths find out about the extra vote. Then its 5-5 but the Goliaths seem to be a mess. Almost certainly one will flip rather than going to rocks. 

[LadyChatts]

10 minutes ago, MissEwa said:

IMO the best play for the Davids at this point is to use the vote steal and idol nullifier. The vote steal will take them up in numbers (from 5-6 down to 6-5 up) and the idol nullifer ensures they don't get bounceback from Dan's idol - and if they're lucky it will get played, especially if the Goliaths find out about the extra vote. Then its 5-5 but the Goliaths seem to be a mess. Almost certainly one will flip rather than going to rocks. 

I'm hoping Kara lets it slip to Alec about Dan's idol, who then tells the Davids (not knowing about their advantages), who can then successfully use both of them and dumbfound the Goliaths yet again.  The Davids might know that Dan would likely use the idol for himself or Kara.  I feel like if Dan didn't win immunity he'd likely use it on himself because he'd probably be a bigger threat to get out.  Kara seemed annoyed with Dan in that preview, which might be nothing but a red herring.  Dan looks as though he's mentally kicking himself for saving Angelina and then John went home, so maybe that's where Kara's supposed frustration comes from.

I just hope a Goliath goes this week again.  Wondering if Angelina will finally run out of her 9 lives, or Alec makes too many side deals.  I do think if something big was happening at TC they'd be talking about it in the previews, so I hope that doesn't mean a predictable David boot. 

Edited November 19, 2018 by LadyChatts

[Mark2]

4 hours ago, MissEwa said:

IMO the best play for the Davids at this point is to use the vote steal and idol nullifier. The vote steal will take them up in numbers (from 5-6 down to 6-5 up) and the idol nullifer ensures they don't get bounceback from Dan's idol - and if they're lucky it will get played, especially if the Goliaths find out about the extra vote. Then its 5-5 but the Goliaths seem to be a mess. Almost certainly one will flip rather than going to rocks. 

While nothing is ever 100%, I'd say it's really, really likely that they use the vote stealer this week.  The risk of "Goliath Strong" just voting them out one by one is clear enough that (IMO), it would be pretty stupid not to.  Especially at such a pivotal 6-5 split.

4 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I'm hoping Kara lets it slip to Alec about Dan's idol, who then tells the Davids (not knowing about their advantages), who can then successfully use both of them and dumbfound the Goliaths yet again.  The Davids might know that Dan would likely use the idol for himself or Kara.  I feel like if Dan didn't win immunity he'd likely use it on himself because he'd probably be a bigger threat to get out.  Kara seemed annoyed with Dan in that preview, which might be nothing but a red herring.  Dan looks as though he's mentally kicking himself for saving Angelina and then John went home, so maybe that's where Kara's supposed frustration comes from.

I just hope a Goliath goes this week again.  Wondering if Angelina will finally run out of her 9 lives, or Alec makes too many side deals.  I do think if something big was happening at TC they'd be talking about it in the previews, so I hope that doesn't mean a predictable David boot. 

 

I thought Dan only told other(s) about the first idol and nobody but him know of the second.

As I interpret it, the vote stealer is played in such a way that the entire tribe will learn about it before anybody votes (the person who plays it will be given someone else's voting paper is what I base that on).  I won't speculate how much that will blow up Tribal or affect Goliath votes.  But I see David staying solid on their choice and call it a good chance Dan would play his HII when it comes time. 

The question is, would it be a waste playing the nullifier?  AFAIK (or recall), there are no other HIIs in play, but it's a good strategy to assume that there are if you're on the show.  If the Davids save the nullifier, they can play it when the split is down to 5-5.  So, should they play it this week when there's a 20-40% chance of needing it (1-2 idols played to protect Goliaths out of the five who don't have the necklace), or next week when it's 20%-50% (depending on who wins immunity)?

I haven't decided if I'd play the nullifier this week or next, but lean toward this week.

Edited November 20, 2018 by Mark2

[LadyChatts]

21 minutes ago, Mark2 said:

While nothing is ever 100%, I'd say it's really, really likely that they use the vote stealer this week.  The risk of "Goliath Strong" just voting them out one by one is clear enough that (IMO), it would be pretty stupid not to.  Especially at such a pivotal 6-5 split.

I thought Dan only told other(s) about the first idol and nobody but him know of the second.

As I interpret it, the vote stealer is played in such a way that the entire tribe will learn about it before anybody votes (the person who plays it will be given someone else's voting paper is what I base that on).  I won't speculate how much that will blow up Tribal or affect Goliath votes.  But I see David staying solid on their choice and call it a good chance Dan would play his HII when it comes time. 

The question is, would it be a waste playing the nullifier?  AFAIK (or recall), there are no other HIIs in play, but it's a good strategy to assume that there are if you're on the show.  If the Davids save the nullifier, they can play it when the split is down to 5-5.  So, should they play it this week when there's a 20-40% chance of needing it (1-2 idols played to protect Goliaths out of the five who don't have the necklace), or next week when it's 20%-50% (depending on who wins immunity)?

I haven't decided if I'd play the nullifier this week or next, but lean toward this week.

Dan has told Kara about his second idol, but I believe she is the only one that knows.  For the vote steal, I know Nick does have to announce his advantage and say whose vote he is stealing.  Carl's advantage, which I'm still slightly confused on how it works, has to be used in secret when he votes, and has to vote for who plays the idol?  I can't remember the specifics.  If Nick steals a vote, that gives the Davids advantage in numbers, so I fully believe Dan will play his idol-especially if he doesn't have immunity.  Not sure if he'd play it for anyone other than himself or Kara though.  Clearly the Davids can't really split the vote this week since they don't have an idol in their possession, so they need to definitely make the right picks to pull something off.  I feel like the nullifier would be getting hyped more in the previews if it was going to be used, but last week had a pretty exciting TC with no hype leading into it, so maybe not.

[Mark2]

Quote

Dan has told Kara about his second idol, but I believe she is the only one that knows.

Ah, that's right I forgot that.  I just binged on Survivor Youtube clips and one had him saying it was just for him to know about lol

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Carl's advantage, which I'm still slightly confused on how it works...

There's a good article that quotes Jeff (as an aside, what's the story about "Peachy?") talking about the person with the nullifier:

"When they go up to vote, they have a decision to make. If they decide to play it, in private, where no one can see them, they’ll say: ‘I’m playing this idol nullifier against [x] playing his idol.’ They write your name down, and drop it in the urn. It comes time to read the votes, and [someone else] stand up and play [an] idol. You dance around, super proud and you bring it over to me. I’ll say, ‘This is a hidden immunity idol.’ Then, I’ll reach into the urn, ‘And this is an idol nullifier. Any votes cast against [x] WILL count.'”

Quote

and has to vote for who plays the idol?

I'm not sure if you have to vote for the person but, at the time they use it, nobody has actually played a HII.  So I'd bet the vote and nullifier are independent choices.  Under present circumstances, it seems prudent to choose the same person, though.

Quote

Not sure if he'd play it for anyone other than himself or Kara though.  Clearly the Davids can't really split the vote this week since they don't have an idol in their possession, so they need to definitely make the right picks to pull something off.

I can't wait to see who they pick, how much info crosses tribal lines, and how that affects Dan's idol decision.  Not saying it'll happen, but a true blindside would be the Davids floating a rumor between a plausibly strong cross-tribal bond - maybe the reverse of last week, Nick telling Alec - that they're voting for Angelina.  When in fact they're voting for Dan.  But then Alec tells Nick that Kara knows Dan has an HII.  LOL.  So they change to voting off Alec, in case Dan plays it for himself.  Dan protects Angelina and wastes the HII, again, and Alec is out :D

Edited November 20, 2018 by Mark2

[ProfCrash]

I suspect that the Davids are less likely to leak information. Christian is not going to trust any of the Goliaths, they just voted as a block to send him home. Alec told Nick, not Christian, and voted for Christian. The Davids are most likely to plot and scheme in private and not share info because they are all screwed if any of them work with the Goliaths. It will be interesting to see how Mike responds to last tribals vote and what type of scrambling comes out of the Goliaths.

[peachmangosteen]

10 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I feel like the nullifier would be getting hyped more in the previews if it was going to be used, but last week had a pretty exciting TC with no hype leading into it, so maybe not.

They were running promos hyping that ep big time.

I think that maybe the Davids will use the vote steal but try to save the nullifier and then one of them will end up getting booted because Dan uses his idol. I hope not though!

Edited November 20, 2018 by peachmangosteen

[Mark2]

8 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

I suspect that the Davids are less likely to leak information. Christian is not going to trust any of the Goliaths, they just voted as a block to send him home...The Davids are most likely to...not share info because they are all screwed if any of them work with the Goliaths...

Definitely true. 

6 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I think that maybe the Davids will use the vote steal but try to save the nullifier and then one of them will end up getting booted because Dan uses his idol. I hope not though!

The last preview shared above implies that all the Davids will know about the vote stealer, but I don't recall Carl sharing his nullifier advantage with anyone.  At this point, to me it's more a question whether; 1) Producers want to keep us in the dark until Tribal about its use, and; 2) if it will be Carl or the Davids collectively who decide when to use it.