Season 40: Speculation and Spoilers

[Whimsy]

This is your newly created discussion thread for Season 40 of Survivor Speculation and Spoilers.  

[Eolivet]

I asked our esteemed mod to make this thread, because I hoped there were people (like me) who are very interested in casting spoilers for Survivor 40 (which won't film for another couple months and will be mainly about casting for a while), independent of Survivor 39 (which should be wrapping up shortly and will have honest-to-goodness spoilers).

So ... all your Survivor 40 casting spoilers and spec. Give them to me, please.

(my question is will the season 38 winner even be asked to participate, if season 38 made Probst so mad, the casting director was fired? Will it be a 20 person season? 18? Or 24, like Survivor Australia, where the contestants needed nametags for at least the first 6 weeks).

[fishcakes]

47 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

my question is will the season 38 winner even be asked to participate, if season 38 made Probst so mad, the casting director was fired?

I think Lynne Spillman's last season was 37. I don't know who cast 38, but that person should also be fired.

Edited April 24, 2019 by fishcakes

[LadyChatts]

There've been cast lists posted at Sucks, but I think Redmond said the cast was just finalized recently.  I don’t know if the people at Sucks have legit sources or are just taking a lucky guess, because it’s probably semi obvious who will/won’t be back (or at least asked).

Bascially, I’ve seen Hatch, Tina, Ethan (may or may not be on), Jenna, Sandra, Danni, Yul, Earl (unsure), Denise, Tyson, Tony, Natalie A., Jeremy, Michele (might be an alternate), Adam, Sarah, Ben, Wendell (supposedly it’s between him and Earl), and Nick as the rumored names coming back.  The S38 winner is another wild card.  

Vee claims she wasn’t asked,  but some wondered if she’s trolling fans so as to not give it away (sadly I don’t think she is).  Todd is a possibility, and I’ve seen Parvati and Kim’s names thrown out there. 

So a lot of the usual suspects, and the male winners out number the women so they have slim pickings on the ladies side.  But that’s why I say, it’s easy for someone to claim they have the names and just make a very good guess.  Pretty much everyone rumored has been back or expressed interest.

[LanceM]

Redmond has stated that the season 38 winner is not on the cast. He will be releasing the cast once they fly out to Fiji which should be in a few weeks.  I will wait to see what he has posted as I don't trust any of the posters over on Sucks.

[omophagia]

I’ve always been in the camp that there are enough winners that I would like to see play again to fill out a full season. My top choices would be Brian Heidik (which will literally never happen for all the reasons, most of them legitimate), Chris Daugherty (the series’ most underrated male winner), and  Yul and Earl (who navigated the show’s transitional years of strategy as well as anyone could have) among the men, and Danni (obviously, and I’d hope that would open the door for future returnees from Guatemala), Kim (my pick for the best single-season run of the whole series, which is hardly an unpopular opinion), Denise (who managed a season with particularly chaotic social dynamics), and Natalie White (to give her a chance to shut up the Hobgoblin apologists) among the women.

Given how often he’s cited by players over the last several seasons, I will be stunned if Tony isn’t on the final cast list for this season.

[Eolivet]

Anybody else following along (or barely following) the speculation on Sucks? I personally think people are overthinking it. Sure, we remember Todd (ugh), Yul and Earl, but those seasons were 10+ years ago.

The speculation that's made the most sense to me is:

8 most recent guy winners, as of 37: Nick, Wendell, Ben, Adam, Jeremy, Mike, Tony, Tyson

6 most recent woman winners: Sarah, Michele, Natalie, Kim, Sophie, Denise

plus two guy "legends:" Boston Rob and Hatch

three woman "legends:" Sandra, Parvati and Tina, and one "wildcard" in Danni/Nat W/Jenna.

These are the winners most recognizable (read: recent, read: younger) to the audience, with a few "legends" in there for added interest. But a walk down Survivor memory lane is awfully navel-gazing, and I have to think the show learned from Ghost Island that navel-gazing isn't a good look on them.

Again, all just speculation at this point, but still.

[loki567]

I'm not saying you're wrong because I've had this thought before too, but what would be the point of an All Winners season if you're just going to bring back the people who were guaranteed to come back anyway? 

It's season 40, seems to me the entire point is to honor their history. I hope the show steps out of their comfort zone a bit and the cast won't be made up completely of people playing their third or fourth times.  

Edited May 6, 2019 by loki567

[phlebas]

I'm highly skeptical that CBS is going anywhere near Richard Hatch again

[azshadowwalker]

24 minutes ago, phlebas said:

I'm highly skeptical that CBS is going anywhere near Richard Hatch again

I am not. There's no ethics in TV, if it is viewed as an ethical issue, and the general viewing public likely doesn't care about his tax issues. They brought Hantz back repeatedly. Not sure Richard is worse. 

[fishcakes]

If it were just the tax evasion and prison time, I think they'd still bring Hatch back if they thought it would bring in viewers. But as part of his defense in the criminal case, he said CBS was going to pay his taxes if he kept quiet about how they were giving food to players they favored and even though no one but the tinfoil hat crowd buys that story, he continues to bash the show, CBS, and other players by name. So I would be pretty surprised if they brought him back after all that.

[AZChristian]

I would hope that a naked Hatch rubbing himself up against Susan on his second appearance would kill any future appearances by him.  She ended up leaving a couple of days later because it affected her so strongly.

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, fishcakes said:

If it were just the tax evasion and prison time, I think they'd still bring Hatch back if they thought it would bring in viewers. But as part of his defense in the criminal case, he said CBS was going to pay his taxes if he kept quiet about how they were giving food to players they favored and even though no one but the tinfoil hat crowd buys that story, he continues to bash the show, CBS, and other players by name. So I would be pretty surprised if they brought him back after all that.

This is exactly why I think they wouldn't bring Hatch back.  More due to bad blood that might have developed than over what happened with him and Sue.

Redmond has so far debunked a lot of rumors out there (or has said no one so far has an accurate list).  In fact, one person has posting pics on a private IG page claiming to have a source.  Redmond said he didn't think their list was right, and suddenly they said someone surprising was not going after all.  I think a lot of these "spoilers" are just guess work.  It's obvious who will likely be back, with some surprises added in.  We could probably all come up with lists that end up being close to the real thing.

Edited May 6, 2019 by LadyChatts

[ProfCrash]

16 hours ago, fishcakes said:

If it were just the tax evasion and prison time, I think they'd still bring Hatch back if they thought it would bring in viewers. But as part of his defense in the criminal case, he said CBS was going to pay his taxes if he kept quiet about how they were giving food to players they favored and even though no one but the tinfoil hat crowd buys that story, he continues to bash the show, CBS, and other players by name. So I would be pretty surprised if they brought him back after all that.

They brought him back after he made that defense. His more negative comments have occurred since his last appearance.

16 hours ago, AZChristian said:

I would hope that a naked Hatch rubbing himself up against Susan on his second appearance would kill any future appearances by him.  She ended up leaving a couple of days later because it affected her so strongly.

Same here. I thought he was an ass and a creep the last time he played. It seemed like he decided to amp up all of the things that people had highlighted as quirky in his first play (the naked on his birthday thing) and try and turn them into "strategies." He was so desperate for air time in a crowded cast that he amped up his "character" aspects. The Sue crap was the last straw for me. I thought he was an asshole and was not happy that the show allowed it to happen.

I am not sure that he wants to play again. I am sure that he is annoyed that Sandra has won twice because he sees himself as a mastermind but I don't think he would last all that long if his first play was with a modern cast.

His strategy was brilliant when he played. He saw the game for what it was, a game. He wasn't there for an adventure or an experience or to make friends. He wasn't worried about how he came across or if he was seen as a good guy. And yes, he managed to pull in a few people and make the first alliance but he was playing a new game against a lot of folks who were out there for the experience and not to play a game.

It was the first season, no one had a clue what they were getting themselves into and most were not interested in figuring it out. Richard would have been in trouble by the third season because people were no longer out there because of the adventure and for the experience but to play the game. And Richard does not have a great social game and would ostracize people pretty quickly.

He was Russell before Russell. He didn't have to got to Russell's extremes to make TV or to make it to the end but I can fully see Richard playing that type of game.

[fishcakes]

4 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

They brought him back after he made that defense. His more negative comments have occurred since his last appearance.

No, his last appearance was on All-Stars and that was in 2004. His tax evasion didn't come to light until a couple of years later and even then he didn't initially say it was a payoff to keep quiet; he first presented it as a misunderstanding about who would pay the taxes. The story was so ludicrous that no one believed it so he kept enhancing it until finally he said it was a payoff. Probst said he was considered for Heroes vs. Villains, but he was still on probation and couldn't leave the country. Since then he's ramped up the anti-Survivor comments, especially after they cast Wiglesworth on Second Chance.

The way the story kept growing was the most entertaining part of it for me.

Hatch: CBS agreed to pay the taxes on my winning so I'd get the full million.
Skeptics: Okay, but that doesn't explain why you didn't declare it on your return.
Hatch: I was confused. I've never had money.
Skeptics: You also didn't declare your earnings from being a radio host that year.
Hatch: I only got that job because of Survivor so I thought they'd pay those taxes too.
Skeptics: Aaaaand you also didn't declare income from a rental property you own.
Hatch: ...
Skeptics: ?
Hatch: Stop persecuting me for being gay.

Edited May 7, 2019 by fishcakes

[ProfCrash]

Dang, I thought that the tax evasion stuff had hit before All Stars, my bad. Why would it take the government that long to prosecute? I knew he couldn't play another season because he was on Parole and couldn't get permission to go.

[phlebas]

22 hours ago, azshadowwalker said:

I am not. There's no ethics in TV, if it is viewed as an ethical issue, and the general viewing public likely doesn't care about his tax issues. They brought Hantz back repeatedly. Not sure Richard is worse. 

Russell was (and is) an ass. But as far as I know he didn't break any laws or rub his crank against anyone who didn't want it.

While the legal stuff is obnoxious enough for CBS to not want to deal with, this is exactly the wrong time for everyone to remember Sue Hawk. Between the #MeToo movement and CBS' own recent adventures with Les Moonves, I am confident he's not going to be on the network again.

I doubt they'll bother with Russell either. His last two appearances (Redemption Island and Australian Survivor) got him voted out almost immediately.  His schtick is old. There are plenty of options better than both.

[fishcakes]

45 minutes ago, ProfCrash said:

Dang, I thought that the tax evasion stuff had hit before All Stars, my bad. Why would it take the government that long to prosecute?

They probably gave him several chances to file an amended return and pay the taxes and he didn't. In a normal case, it takes at least a couple of years for the IRS to even discover the return doesn't match the 1099s and then they give you every chance to fix it so they don't have to prosecute. I once left an amount off my return by mistake but I never heard from the IRS; I discovered it myself over a year later and filed an amended return then. Of course, that was only, like, $900, not a million. I don't know how he didn't figure he'd get caught since he made a huge amount of money in the most public way possible.

[azshadowwalker]

If anyone thinks the network that kept Moonves around for decades gives a fuck about Richard Hatch and Sue Hawk, I have some beach front property here in Tucson to sell you. 

[peachmangosteen]

They don't care, but they may care about the optics.

[Eolivet]

The question is how widely known Hatch's exploits are outside of the Survivor "fandom." Not like it's a huge endorsement, but he did appear on Celebrity Apprentice.

Though I think some folks elsewhere on the Internet need a primer on who exactly "green-lights" a season (and it's not Probst, he's only the executive producer, not the network), the conventional wisdom is the network wouldn't have asked for this season without a handful of memorable winners agreeing: Sandra, Boston Rob, Parvati, Tony, Kim and Hatch.

It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

[Nashville]

5 hours ago, azshadowwalker said:

If anyone thinks the network that kept Moonves around for decades gives a fuck about Richard Hatch and Sue Hawk, I have some beach front property here in Tucson to sell you. 

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

They don't care, but they may care about the optics.

This was my thought.  To put your question conversely, @azshadowwalker: In the era which saw CBS dump its own CEO Les Moonves for allegations of sexual impropriety, think TPTB give a socially conscious fuck about Richard Hatch?

34 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

The question is how widely known Hatch's exploits are outside of the Survivor "fandom."

Let Hatch get selected, and I’d pretty much guarantee the whole world would know within about 48 hours.

34 minutes ago, Eolivet said:

Not like it's a huge endorsement, but he did appear on Celebrity Apprentice.

... Nah, too easy.  ;>

[loki567]

It's not really a case of Richard/Sue is just a Survivor fandom thing that nobody else will care about. We live in an era where there will absolutely be bad press if Richard returns. And that bad press can lead to the Bob/Crystal situation where Probst specifically told her they wouldn't air her accusation against him at FTC. 

And that can lead to who knows what else, as I feel like it's almost a guarantee there's something else out there that didn't pierce into fan consciousness because they were were able to keep it under wraps. And that could in turn lead to criticism about the way Survivor treats women in general. 

My point being why court any of that for Richard? 

[peachmangosteen]

7 hours ago, loki567 said:

And that bad press can lead to the Bob/Crystal situation where Probst specifically told her they wouldn't air her accusation against him at FTC. 

What's this about? I might have heard about it before but I can't remember it.

[loki567]

Bob groped Crystal at a reward challenge. Crystal and Kenny talked about it in interviews. Crystal was going to confront him at FTC and Probst told her that they wouldn't air if she did.

[LadyChatts]

Oh, I'd never heard that before!

On the subject of Hatch-I won't be surprised either way.  My feeling is, if he isn't back, it's probably because he didn't want to or because of the bad feelings.  I do think we're going to get mostly post HvsV winners, with a handful of old schoolers, like Tina.  

Edited May 9, 2019 by LadyChatts

[CheetaraThunder]

A season with Kim vs Parv vs Danni is a fucking win for me.

[Eolivet]

With the caveat that the cast is all speculation at this point, this still sort of gives me chills to see someone put it together like this:

[omophagia]

Was discussing this with some friends over the weekend, and this is what I figure in terms of how this could go well:

Include multiple winners who haven’t returned previously.

Include some all-time greats / fan favorites, but avoid picking only the most obvious winners.

Include controversial winners who can prove they have game.

Include winners with diverse game styles.

Avoid recency bias and make this a series-spanning cast.

Avoid rigging twists and advantages for production favorites, the series’ greatest liability since Heroes V Villains.

For me, my ideal line-up would be: 

Vecepia, Brian, Sandra, Chris, Danni, Yul, Earl, Parvati, Natalie W, Fabio, Rob, Kim, Denise, Tony, Natalie A, Jeremy, Michele, Sarah, Wendell, Nick.

Others I’d be perfectly fine to see again: Tina, Ethan, Jenna, Tom, Aras, Sophie.

Pass: Hatch, Cochran, Adam, Ben.

[LanceM]

So the speculation is that the cast might be flying out this weekend or next week so we should have the cast revealed by Redmond quite soon.  The latest update is that Redmond has backtracked slightly on his statement that the season 38 winner will not be on. He said on Sucks today that you have to take into account that he made the statement weeks ago.  Sounds to me that something may have changed or atleast they are considering making a change.  This is a good example for why he waits until the cast has flown out to location before he spoils it because he knows that no cast is final until they actually arrive on location.

Edited May 14, 2019 by LanceM

[Eolivet]

Which is why I can't fathom they won't announce the cast at the 38 finale and/or flip the 39 and 40 airings. If they don't, then Entertainment Weekly or Hollywood Reporter or even someone outside of that finds out and spoils the cast for the all-winners season. If CBS announces it tomorrow, they control that narrative.

I know people have said they didn't announce All Stars (another spring season) after Amazon, and to that I say: it was 2003/2004 and social media wasn't a thing.

Maybe it kills the excitement for 39, but if the 40 cast is leaving soon, I feel like the show's sort of painted itself into a corner otherwise.

[LadyChatts]

Some on other sites are speculating that, if the S38 is involved, that might be a way to tie it into the finale and the announcement of S40.  They could say whoever wins is going to be competing against 'legends' (I'm going to use that terms loosely until I see who is cast).  I'm still skeptical they would announce a season that isn't even going to air for a year, but who knows.

[pennben]

When they did Second Chances, didn’t they already have a season in the can and aired them out of order?  Any speculation they might do the same thing again?

[LanceM]

SurvivorsUnite, a poster on Sucks who is a friend/acquaintance of Sandra Diaz-Twine (and spoiled season 20 and 34) said on Sucks today that the cast is sequestered in LA tonight and will be flying out to Fiji tomorrow. He also said that the cast will not be at the finale tonight. Given this information you can expect to see Redmond reveal the cast sometime in the next week, possibly by this weekend.

[nutty1]

Can you tell me if this is all winners? 

[LadyChatts]

2 minutes ago, nutty1 said:

Can you tell me if this is all winners? 

It is, yes.  The cast flew to Los Angeles today and is going into sequester.  I think they fly out to Fiji in the next day or two.

[nutty1]

Just now, LadyChatts said:

It is, yes.  The cast flew to Los Angeles today and is going into sequester.  I think they fly out to Fiji in the next day or two.

I thought so but then I saw something somewhere else that made me second guess myself. Thanks. 

[ProfCrash]

23 minutes ago, nutty1 said:

I thought so but then I saw something somewhere else that made me second guess myself. Thanks. 

The Season 39 preview? Maybe Rob and Sandra were left on their island and will join the others when they arrive.

[LadyChatts]

http://insidesurvivor.com/cast/survivor-season-40-cast-revealed

And here they are.  Biggest surprise on the list?  Amber.  Playing against Rob (I wonder how many idols will get flung at those two to keep the husband/wife "rivalry" going).  Also surprised at no Tina.

So excited to see Danni back-finally a Guatemala rep!  And Yul!  Could definitely do without Adam or Ben, and disappointed that there's a recency bias.  Otherwise it's not terrible.   I'm more excited for the women than the men.    

Edited May 18, 2019 by LadyChatts

[LanceM]

Wow. Amber being back is the biggest shock of all. Never thought she would be back.

Oh and I hope Michele wins again to see the look on Probst's face. lol

[LadyChatts]

I don't even like Michele, and hope she isn't on a mission to prove herself to everyone who thought she shouldn't win-but I'd love for Probst to have to eat crow.  

I was really hoping for more pre-HvsV winners, but I suppose there's a good reason we don't have many in the line up (personal reasons, health issues, castaways issues with TPTB, etc).  

[ozziemom]

Surprised to see both Rob and Amber, figured Rob was on season 39 and then went home to take care of their kids. Could be interesting to see them play against each other.

Happy to see all the women and most of the men, but mostly happy to not see JT again!

[ProfCrash]

Yul is back! Awesome.

And Kim. 

I am good

[peachmangosteen]

I am quite happy with that cast. I wish Natalie W was there over Sarah, but otherwise the women are all awesome. I'd rather Sandra not play again, but I love her so it's fine.

There are plenty of men I'd rather not see again, but I'm not a fan of most of the male winners so that was bound to happen.

I also really need Michele to win just for the hilarity of it.

[Eolivet]

I am home with my people, who I adore. I need therapy after time on Sucks, and they had more than a few wrong, so this was a fun surprise. Personally, I'm fine with the recency bias -- the only season in the 30s where winners could theoretically return was Game Changers (because Second Chances folks by definition didn't win), so you had to think an all-winners season would have a number of winners from the 30s. And they really are going up against heavyweights. So psyched for this!

[loki567]

Looking at the cast and I'm finally excited. As much as we could complain about certain peoples' wins, this is a hardcore group of gameplayers.

It's going to be a straight slaughter and I can't wait to watch. 

Edited May 19, 2019 by loki567

[LadyChatts]

I'm sure there were specific people that, if they couldn't get, they probably would have gone to a plan b.  Where the women are concerned, they didn't have a large field to choose from (only Tina, Vee, Jenna, and Natalie W. were left out).  Yul and Ethan were question marks for me, but I'm not surprised.  I knew we'd see Tony and Boston Rob again.  I'm more surprised on the men's side that Hatch did't get picked, although there's a lot of factors going into that I'm sure.  In all, though, this is pretty much what I expected.  It'll be interesting to see how people adapt to playing a game where they aren't the main beneficiary of every idol in the game, or using a story to get votes in the end, or just playing a game with idols, advantages, and numerous tribe swaps.  I hope the old schoolers aren't at a disadvantage because they may not have the pre-alliance friendships some of the recents do.

Edited May 19, 2019 by LadyChatts

[cherrypj]

Who's in, and who's not?

1. Borneo, Richard Hatch (Scum)
2. Australian Outback, Tina Wesson (She's 58, or had enough?)
3. Africa, Ethan Zohn (meh)
4. Marquesas, Vecepia Towery (Too bad, but she's smart.)
5. Thailand, Brian Heidik (Scum)
6. Amazon, Jenna Morasca
7. Pearl Islands, Sandra Diaz-Twine
8. All-Stars, Amber Brkich (Wow, big get. Huge target on her back, because of Rob.)
9. Vanuatu, Chris Daugherty (Would have preferred Chris over Tony.)
10. Palau, Tom Westman (He's 55.)
11. Guatemala, Danni Boatwright
12. Panama, Aras Baskauskas (Already tried in Season 27.)
13. Cook Islands, Yul Kwon (WOW)
14. Fiji, Earl Cole (Too bad. Would have preferred Earl over Adam.)
15. China, Todd Herzog (In rehab.)
16. Micronesia, Parvati Shallow
17. Gabon, Bob Crowley
18. Tocantins, J.T. (Haha!)
19. Samoa, Natalie White
20. HvV, Sandra Diaz-Twine
21. Nicaragua, Fabio Birza
22. Redemption Island, Rob Mariano (I love Rob, but four was enough. He and Amber will have to scramble! And now I understand why he's so puffy in the Island of the Idols previews.)
23. South Pacific, Sophie Clarke
24. One World, Kim Spradlin (YES!)
25. Philippines, Denise Stapley (48, oldest returnee. Hope she's still as fit.)
26. Caramoan, John Cochran (Thank god.)
27. BvW, Tyson Apostol
28. Cagayan, Tony Vlachos (Would have preferred Chris.)
29. San Juan del Sur, Natalie Anderson (Badass. Back with Jeremy!)
30. Worlds Apart, Mike Holloway (Whew.)
31. Cambodia, Jeremy Collins
32. Kaôh Rōng, Michele Fitzgerald
33. MvGx, Adam Klein (Would have preferred Earl.)
34. Game Changers, Sarah Lacina
35. HvHvH, Ben Driebergen (Fuck.)
36. GI, Wendell Holland (Why not Dominick, too?)
37. DvG, Nick Wilson
38. EoE, Chris Underwood* (Yes, an asterisk.)

Edited May 19, 2019 by cherrypj

[ProfCrash]

The other positive to this cast, it is highly unlikely that Rob and Sandra will actually return as players in season 39 because they are set to play in 40. Back to back seasons would be really hard if they were hard core playing in season 39. 

[jay741982]

UGH I really do not want to see Tony play again same with TWINNIE! And Parv Miss my shit dont stink. And wow Rob is playing for the 5th Time.! If they are Smart Rob gets targeted Quickly and they dont give Jeremy and Twinnie Natalie the chance to reteam. I see Sandra being targeted Quickly and Parv needs to be as well! Agree with Prefrering Chris over Tony. Excited to see Yul play cause I missed the first time. Probst already has his Pets to hand out idols too already.