The Annual Academy Awards - General Discussion

[DearEvette]

7 hours ago, GHScorpiosRule said:

Same here. I keep wishing that Eddie Murphy would host. He would be FUNNY! He proved that he's still got the funny in his stint as host on SNL last month.

Personally, I think Eddie got robbed for a lead actor nomination for Dolemite is My Name.  He gave a bravura performance, much like he did as Jimmy in DreamGirls. 

Also Ruth Carter should have been a back-to-back nominee for the costume design. You can't convince me that the Irishmen was better.

Yeah, so underwhelmed. 

In all the recent award nominees, I think the GLAAD media awards comes closest to highlighting the shows/performances I liked this year. 

[truthaboutluv]

This is why some are whatever about Awards because at the end of the day it's really so subjective.  Because honestly, I watched Knives Out, enjoyed it for what it was, but at no point did I ever think Ana de Armas was giving an Oscar worthy performance. Or frankly anyone in that film really. Maybe, if I stretch it really hard, I'd say Jamie Lee Curtis and Michael Shannon as supporting. But yeah even that seemed a stretch to me. 

[blackwing]

1 hour ago, Darlin said:

Sounds like there is a thin line between campaigning and bribing for votes.

I don't understand why nominees are allowed to campaign.  I get that as a nominee you want the voting body to see your work, but campaign tactics can get real tacky real quick.

I don’t necessarily mind the campaigning, I think people should be proud of their work and do what they can to get recognition.  An Oscar nomination is huge for future casting potential, they will forever be known as “Academy Award Nominee”.

But in terms of campaigning, what I did mind and still do to this day, is pervert Harvey Weinstein basically buying Gwyneth Paltrow her Oscar.  Cate Blanchett got royally robbed that year.  It’s prob not Gwyneth’s fault, but I still resent her to this day for it.  I’ve wanted her character to die in every movie I’ve seen her in since then.  Bite it, Pepper Potts!!!

[kittykat]

Hot takes:

Once Upon a Time and Quentin Tarantino are going to win.  I'm getting that gut feeling.  Hollywood loves awarding Hollywood and while he's picked up a couple of screenplay hardware in the past voters will give it to him because it's "his turn."

I said it the second I was out of the theater that Brad Pitt was going to win the Oscar, it would appear I am not wrong.

Is Joaquin Phoenix a lock for Best Actor?  I feel even with the most noms that Joker will not clean up.  If an acting upset is going to happen it's going to be here with Leo winning #2 or possibly Adam Driver.  I would love it if Jonathan Pryce got called only because I love a good ballot ruiner.  

8 hours ago, galaxygirl76 said:

It didn't work for Sigourney Weaver, Emma Thompson, Cate Blanchett, or Julianne Moore when they had two nominations in the same year. Most recent woman to win one of the two nominations was Holly Hunter. 

Al Pacino and Jamie Foxx won on years they were double noms as well.

The more I think about it, I think Scarlett is going to win Best Actress.  I know Renee Has been cleaning up but as someone said upthread she's going to be Glenn Closed.  Hollywood loves a comeback but they also love awarding an A lister.  I do hope Cynthia Erivo gets the best song Oscar and gets that EGOT.

Screenplay awards:. Since Greta Gerwig got the shaft in directing, she might win screenplay (I'm guessing this or JoJo Rabbit since Oscar also awards whimsy).  I'm pulling for Parasite for original since it probably won't win the top two.  Also, where is Kang Ho Song's nomination?

Agree with those who think aside from sound awards 1917 will get the shaft.  

2 hours ago, slowpoked said:

 

@blackwing, sorry, my question was more an observation rather than a question to you. It just seems frustrating that the locks are mostly the white actors while the POC are the ones leaving to fight for that last spot and to satisfy the "token" nomination. Like, why can it not be the reverse - why can't Lupita, Awkwafina, Alfre Woodard, Cynthia be the locks and let Renee, Charlize, Scarlett fight for that last spot instead? The benefit of the doubt for a great performance always goes first to the white actor. It's not like the Academy can say, "well, we would love more POC in our nominations but there weren't great work to choose from the past year..."

Exactly.  Was just reading an article the other day about all the amazing performances by POC and how they only expected one slot to be filled while the expected "four white actors" had their places.  Aaaaaaaand...here we are.

No one is saying white actors should not be awarded anymore but it's clear the older school Oscar voters still have those blinders on regarding recognizing the diversity of performances.  The quality and exposure of films made and starring POC raise their own bar year after year and Oscar still comes short in recognizing that and that is where the frustration lies.  

Anyhoo we'll see how my predictions lay Oscar night.

Edited January 14, 2020 by kittykat

[Crs97]

Re being nominated in two categories:  I loved when George Clooney won fir best supporting actor and started his speech with, “Well, we all know I’m not winning for best screenplay [I think that was his other nom].”

My UO: I thought “Shakespeare in Love” was extremely clever and very well acted and had no problem with the Academy love it received.

[Growsonwalls]

I am really glad Meryl was not nominated for Little Women. I generally like Meryl but sometimes her acting feels like a collection of tics and mannerisms and this was one of those times. Glad Florence Pugh got the nod instead.

[MVFrostsMyPie]

#OscarsSoWhiteYetAgain 🙄

[slowpoked]

2 hours ago, kittykat said:

I know Renee Has been cleaning up but as someone said upthread she's going to be Glenn Closed.

Gosh, I hope I didn't jinx her. LOL.

Seriously though, I'm rooting for her and I hope she wins. For some reason, Renee got a lot of bad rap and press since her heyday in the early 2000s, most of it unfair (IMO). It would make for a great comeback story and to show everyone that she still got it.

[Silver Raven]

Greta Gerwig is nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture and her partner, Noah Baumbach, is nominated for Best Screenplay and Best Picture.  I bet there's a lot of celebrating going on in that household.

My biggest shock is the lack of Frozen II for Best Animated Feature.  Not that I'm complaining, but doesn't Disney get nominated for everything?

I'm also disappointed that Bad Boy didn't get nominated for Best Song.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Silver Raven

[Irlandesa]

11 hours ago, slowpoked said:

But bummed that it wasn't able to breakthrough in the acting awards. The consensus was that Mr. Kim would be the presumed nominee in the Supporting Actor category, but I really thought there might be enough to pull through for Mrs. Park who gave an excellent performance as the gullible wife. If she had been a white actress and that part was spoken in English, it would have been a surefire nominee like Laura Dern's was. One could argue that her character was the main driving force of the film, as the poor family wouldn't have been able to infiltrate the rich family had it not been for her, and her comedic timing was one of the best parts of the film.

Possibly but this would still be seen as a genre film and those have had trouble historically of breaking out.  Only about 15 have been nominated for Best Picture.

But I agree that she was terrific.  The rich wife was my favorite performance of the movie out of many amazing performances.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Irlandesa

[Jan Spears]

Interesting conjecture as to why Jennifer Lopez didn't get a nomination (may have to register to read):

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/movies/jennifer-lopez-academy-awards.html?searchResultPosition=1

[Bruinsfan]

14 hours ago, truthaboutluv said:

This is why some are whatever about Awards because at the end of the day it's really so subjective.  Because honestly, I watched Knives Out, enjoyed it for what it was, but at no point did I ever think Ana de Armas was giving an Oscar worthy performance. Or frankly anyone in that film really. Maybe, if I stretch it really hard, I'd say Jamie Lee Curtis and Michael Shannon as supporting. But yeah even that seemed a stretch to me. 

I agree. I quite enjoyed the film, but at no point did I feel that I was watching cinematic history in the making, and I've assumed all along that there would be more deserving performances in movies I took a pass on. I definitely feel there were more deserving performances that didn't get noms in Rocketman and Pain and Glory (though I'm over the moon that Banderas got a Best Actor nom for the latter).

[Neurochick]

14 hours ago, MVFrostsMyPie said:

#OscarsSoWhiteYetAgain 🙄

LOL, for me the Oscars become more irrelevant with each year.  

[dmeets]

On ‎1‎/‎13‎/‎2020 at 9:02 PM, Silver Raven said:

My biggest shock is the lack of Frozen II for Best Animated Feature.  Not that I'm complaining, but doesn't Disney get nominated for everything?

I wonder if the Fox buyout and getting into streaming business has gotten some members pissed towards Disney? Either that or they hated the ending as much as I did. :)

 

Granted the SAGs have yet to be awarded but I think the acting categories are pretty much a lock at this point: Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, and Dern.

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will get Best Picture, but Director might be the big upset of the night.* Tarantino's polarizing, and it was pretty classless of him (knowing there was a decent shot he's be back on stage later on) to leap to the stage at the Critics Choice Awards to accept Pitt's award rather than the standard "we accept the award on [ ]'s behalf."

 

* I know Mendes is picking up some steam, but usually the Academy seems to like to reward the director along with the best picture.

Edited January 15, 2020 by dmeets

[slowpoked]

34 minutes ago, dmeets said:

* I know Mendes is picking up some steam, but usually the Academy seems to like to reward the director along with the best picture.

Since 2010, only 4 directors won when their corresponding BP films won as well. Just last year, Alfonso Cuaron won for Roma when Green Book won BP. 

The divide will probably widen more in the future as the BP has expanded to a max of 10 films while Best Director remains at 5.

I'm rooting for Bong Joon Ho as Parasite is my favorite film of the year. I think he stands a really good chance to win as Best Director, although Parasite as a film may have lower odds as BP winner.

[Crs97]

I assume Parasite is up for best foreign film as well?  My guess is that it will take that award and then be done.

I can’t watch war films, but am hearing really good things about 1917 and the way it was shot.  Even my 16 year old wants to see it specifically because of the single shot style.  I can see the academy recognizing that creativity. 

[dmeets]

45 minutes ago, slowpoked said:

Since 2010, only 4 directors won when their corresponding BP films won as well. Just last year, Alfonso Cuaron won for Roma when Green Book won BP. 

The divide will probably widen more in the future as the BP has expanded to a max of 10 films while Best Director remains at 5.

I didn't realize that, glad that the two don't go hand-in-hand so much nowadays. I hated the argument "did the film direct itself?" that would arise when BP and BD went to different movies. I guess it's been a while now, but Cooper for the King's Speech stands out as a WTF moment to me. I definitely hope Tarantino doesn't win for OUaTiH (because I do think

Spoiler

the "Hollywood as heroes" plot regarding the Manson cult

 is too enticing for the old school voters to deny BP to). I'd rather see Mendes or Bong Joon Ho as well.

Edited January 15, 2020 by dmeets

[chitowngirl]

With 9 Best Picture nominees and 5 Best Director nominees, there are going to be Directors shut out...

[slowpoked]

2 hours ago, dmeets said:

I hated the argument "did the film direct itself?" that would arise when BP and BD went to different movies.

I think that argument holds more water when the director isn't nominated at all, and the film itself is well-nominated in other categories (Greta Gerwig and Little Women).

I can see how different directors and films win their awards. Like a couple of years ago, when Cuaron won for Gravity, but BP went to 12 Years A Slave. Cuaron did a masterful job directing that movie, but 12 Years A Slave just had a bigger impact as a film overall.

[dmeets]

Totally agree. It seemed to me like there was a period of time where the default seemed to be that the director of the best picture won the Oscar. Looked it up and a split's only happened 26 of 91 years, but that corellation does seem to have eroded in recent years thankfully. I was worried that Once Upon a Time... emerging as a favorite would mean Tarantino's a shoo-in, and while I liked the film more than most of his, I'd put him as 3rd maybe 4th of the nominees this year (and would have traded Gerwig and Waititi for Scorcese and Philips in which case he'd be last on my list).

[kittykat]

It's been an interesting trend.  Between 1957-1999.  Only five years had best picture and best director split: 1967, 1972, 1981, 1989, 1998.  And I know people consider the wins of Chariots of Fire, Driving Miss Daisy and Shakespeare in Love as the more shocking wins. I didn't start watching the Oscars until the early 90s bit and remember my parents saying it was a given that whatever film won Best director won Best Picture.

Since 2000, it has happened eight times: 00, 02, 05, 12, 13, 15, 16, 18.  The awards were split quite a bit in the 30s, which is also the time of 8-10 best picture nominees.

5 hours ago, dmeets said:

6 hours ago, slowpoked said:

Since 2010, only 4 directors won when their corresponding BP films won as well. Just last year, Alfonso Cuaron won for Roma when Green Book won BP. 

The divide will probably widen more in the future as the BP has expanded to a max of 10 films while Best Director remains at 5.

I didn't realize that, glad that the two don't go hand-in-hand so much nowadays. I hated the argument "did the film direct itself?" that would arise when BP and BD went to different movies. I guess it's been a while now, but Cooper for the King's Speech stands out as a WTF moment to me. I definitely hope Tarantino doesn't win for OUaTiH (because I do think

I definitely remember David Fincher as the expected winner that year.  Both Tom Hooper and The Kings Speech over The Social Network winning were definite surprises.

It's interesting that Ang Lee and Alfonso Cuaron have won two BD Oscars but neither film won BP. But we all know 2005 and 2018 were big WTF moments.

The only reason I think QT is the favorite is because it reminds me of when Scorsese won for The Departed, not his best but it's "his time" and there have definitely been plenty of instances when Oscar gives the Legacy win versus Actual Best.  I would hoot and holler with happiness if Bong Joon-Ho won I'm hoping they'll throw a screenplay Oscar his way.

[Bruinsfan]

I'd imagine the talk about this maybe being Tarantino's next-to-last film could have an influence too. Sort of a blue light special on the Oscar.

Personally I'm pulling for Mendes to win Best Director, but a part of me would like to see Phillips win just for the look on Scorsese's face when he realizes someone got the statue for a comic book movie.

[slowpoked]

2 hours ago, Bruinsfan said:

but a part of me would like to see Phillips win just for the look on Scorsese's face when he realizes someone got the statue for a comic book movie.

Well, isn't Joker a Scorsese-lite film anyway?! It took a lot after his style, that if you don't know much, you could mistake this for a Scorsese movie. 

On 1/14/2020 at 4:54 AM, Jan Spears said:

Interesting conjecture as to why Jennifer Lopez didn't get a nomination (may have to register to read):

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/movies/jennifer-lopez-academy-awards.html?searchResultPosition=1

Yes, it's always finding the perfect balance of "wanting it but not wanting it too much". Strike just the right approach of begging. 

One thing I respect about JLo though is that instead of shying away and pretending to be just be grateful of all the opportunities she had, she full-on embraced the DIVA label. She owned it and didn't apologize for it. You gotta admire the chutzpah. 

[Kel Varnsen]

On 1/16/2020 at 11:39 AM, Bruinsfan said:

Personally I'm pulling for Mendes to win Best Director, but a part of me would like to see Phillips win just for the look on Scorsese's face when he realizes someone got the statue for a comic book movie.

I haven't watched the live ceremony in years. But if the academy wanted me to watch all they would have to do is play his "I'm here for the gangbang" clip from Old School when Todd Phillips's name gets called for the director noms.

[Artsda]

On 1/13/2020 at 9:09 PM, kittykat said:

Is Joaquin Phoenix a lock for Best Actor?  I feel even with the most noms that Joker will not clean up.  If an acting upset is going to happen it's going to be here with Leo winning #2 or possibly Adam Driver. 

I think hes a lock and Brad Pitt too. 

[ProudMary]

1 hour ago, Artsda said:

I think hes a lock and Brad Pitt too. 

I agree with you on Phoenix and Pitt.  I think Renee Zellweger's a lock also. The only acting category where we might see an upset--but even here chances are low, because Laura Dern has this just about locked down--is Supporting Actress. 

[truthaboutluv]

On 1/15/2020 at 8:19 PM, kittykat said:

The only reason I think QT is the favorite is because it reminds me of when Scorsese won for The Departed, not his best but it's "his time" and there have definitely been plenty of instances when Oscar gives the Legacy win versus Actual Best.  I would hoot and holler with happiness if Bong Joon-Ho won I'm hoping they'll throw a screenplay Oscar his way.

The thing is that year, Scorsese kind of won everything, which added to the "it's his time" feeling. He won the Globe, he won DGA, I'm pretty sure he won the Critics Choice, etc. Tarantino hasn't won any of these for Director (well DGA hasn't happened yet). So far he's only been cleaning up in Screenwriting. So not really seeing the "it's his time" feeling regarding the Best Director category. 

Edited January 18, 2020 by truthaboutluv

[FilmTVGeek80]

On 1/15/2020 at 4:54 PM, slowpoked said:

I think that argument holds more water when the director isn't nominated at all, and the film itself is well-nominated in other categories (Greta Gerwig and Little Women).

Trevor Noah made that argument and I didn't think it worked, at least this yea, because all of the directing nominees come from movies that have a lot of nominations - including for Best Picture. Joker has 11. 1917, OUaTiH, and The Irishman all have 10. Parasite has 6 noms, the same as LW, and if you took out Bong-Joon Ho than than you've got a different diversity problem because instead of all men you've got all white people nominated with stories about white people.

On 1/15/2020 at 8:19 PM, kittykat said:

It's interesting that Ang Lee and Alfonso Cuaron have won two BD Oscars but neither film won BP. But we all know 2005 and 2018 were big WTF moments.

I know 2005 was the year Brokeback Mountain lost (fuck you forever Crash) but what was the WTF moment of 2018. The Shape of Water?

[slowpoked]

EW's theory on why Kathy Bates made it and Jennifer Lopez didn't:

Quote

I think what happened was a combination of frontrunner fatigue, Bates’ relentless campaigning, and, unfortunately, antiquated notions about Lopez’s career. I think a lot of people — especially those in the Academy — don’t respect her work and write her off as the rom-com queen she was in the early 2000s (despite, even back then, having given brilliant performances in movies like Selena, Out of Sight, and The Cell). There’s something about her that the industry just doesn’t take seriously, and I’m not sure if she can ever overcome that.

Quote

The only explanation for Kathy Bates is her dedication to a campaign. She worked the circuit and it paid off. We can’t fault her for that. Who can blame her? The performance is decent and she did give us that fabulous image of her crying in a wig behind those microphones. It’s legendary in its own right (but not better than Lopez’s performance).

https://ew.com/oscars/2020/01/13/awardist-debate-oscar-nominations/

 

[kittykat]

17 hours ago, FilmTVGeek80 said:

Trevor Noah made that argument and I didn't think it worked, at least this yea, because all of the directing nominees come from movies that have a lot of nominations - including for Best Picture. Joker has 11. 1917, OUaTiH, and The Irishman all have 10. Parasite has 6 noms, the same as LW, and if you took out Bong-Joon Ho than than you've got a different diversity problem because instead of all men you've got all white people nominated with stories about white people.

I know 2005 was the year Brokeback Mountain lost (fuck you forever Crash) but what was the WTF moment of 2018. The Shape of Water?

I was referring to Green Book.

 

On 1/17/2020 at 7:24 PM, ProudMary said:

I agree with you on Phoenix and Pitt.  I think Renee Zellweger's a lock also. The only acting category where we might see an upset--but even here chances are low, because Laura Dern has this just about locked down--is Supporting Actress. 

I still maintain that Best Actress has a better chance of a shake up than Supporting.  If anyone can beat Laura Dern it might be Florence Pugh since she's gotten momentum and Best Supporting Actress is traditionally the "award the ingenue" category.  I just love Laura so much and she's had an amazing couple of years that I want her to win.  She will Not Not Get the Oscar!

In general acting is looking pretty locked if there's going to be surprises it will be Picture, Director and Screenplay. Parasite winning the SAG also just made this a lot more interesting.

Edited January 20, 2020 by kittykat
I have thoughts

[Bruinsfan]

18 hours ago, FilmTVGeek80 said:

Joker has 11. 1917, OUaTiH, and The Irishman all have 10. Parasite has 6 noms, the same as LW, and if you took out Bong-Joon Ho than than you've got a different diversity problem because instead of all men you've got all white people nominated with stories about white people.

To be fair, The Irishman is about, well, an Irish man and a bunch of Mafia figures, and a lot of the Academy's voters are from an era when Italians and the Irish weren't considered white. To them, a vote for it IS a vote for diversity!

[absnow54]

52 minutes ago, kittykat said:

I still maintain that Best Actress has a better chance of a shake up than Supporting.

I agree, because it's the film's only nomination (other than hair and makeup), and that can sometimes ostracize a win from a major category. However, because she's portraying Judy Garland, I think that will appeal to older voters who may have turned up their nose at watching a film only nominated for two awards. Plus, who really is the alternative? Scarlett Johansson, because they should probably give her at least one for making two good films last year?

[Crs97]

Curious that the analysis is Kathy Bates got the nod over JLo due to relentless campaigning.  I have seen tons more from/about JLo than Kathy.  I haven’t even seen Kathy in an interview about the film.  Also interesting is the analysis that the academy dissed JLo because it has antiquated ideas about JLo’s acting when the list of her better performances contains Selena and Out of Sight, her oldest films.  Things that make you go, hmm.

[slowpoked]

1 hour ago, Crs97 said:

Curious that the analysis is Kathy Bates got the nod over JLo due to relentless campaigning.  I have seen tons more from/about JLo than Kathy.  I haven’t even seen Kathy in an interview about the film.

It's not just the interviews, but attending all those parties, studio networking events, private luncheons, events that are not usually in the public eye or open invitation except to the industry insiders. I think there's some validity to that - Kathy is a veteran in the Oscar circuit, she knows how to work these things. JLo, while a popular celebrity, is new to all of this - this is basically her first award shows circuit. And she is also currently filming a movie and preparing for the SB halftime show. So her absence in these events might as well have been to Kathy's advantage. I just didn't think that JLo is the one in the bubble for missing a slot, and not someone else. She has been a strong #2 choice ranking this season, behind Laura. 

I think the power of campaigning did affect the acting nominations (or lack thereof) for the cast of Parasite despite figuring on the big Oscar noms. When assessing the chances of Song Kang Ho, Cho Yeo Jeong and Lee Jeung Eun for potential acting noms, pundits refer to the ladies of Roma breaking through and that the same could happen to the Parasite actors, a "friendlier" and more engaging movie to watch compared to Roma. But Roma had the huge backing and campaigning power of Netflix behind it, while Parasite had a Korean production company and a small, indie US distributor. The latter does not have unlimited resources like Roma did.

Edited January 20, 2020 by slowpoked

[galaxygirl76]

With 1917 winning the PGA and the best Drama Globe, can we consider it now the official front runner?

[ProudMary]

1 hour ago, galaxygirl76 said:

With 1917 winning the PGA and the best Drama Globe, can we consider it now the official front runner?

JMO, but I think both Once Upon A Time in Hollywood and Parasite are still in the running. Also, it's always said that a film can't win Best Picture if it hasn't been nominated for editing too. Of those 3 only Parasite fits the parameter.

[truthaboutluv]

Its definitely not a slam dunk for 1917 and you’re right, Parasite and Once Upon a Time are still strong contenders. 1917 just has the slight edge in terms of odds because the PGA win is huge. But man, that reaction to the Parasite cast at SAG was something. 

[Bruinsfan]

My gut feeling is that voters won't be able to resist a movie ABOUT old Hollywood and the filmmaking business, as that's obviously a much more important and relevant subject than some obscure foreign conflict they didn't even make John Wayne movies about, and it doesn't require anyone to read subtitles.

I suppose it could go the other way if there are still enough Academy members who remember being worried about the Draft in the late 1910s.

[slowpoked]

On 1/21/2020 at 6:15 AM, truthaboutluv said:

But man, that reaction to the Parasite cast at SAG was something. 

Yeah, that was something. I know critics and general audience loved the movie. But to see that adulation from actors was something else.

Entertainment reporters, critics and pundits think that Parasite stands a better chance at BP than Roma did because there is such a passion for the movie. People don't just respect it as a good movie, they loved it. 

It's also a movie that just gets better with repeated viewings (which I suspect will only help with voters, especially the more enthusiastic ones) - you see or notice something that you didn't in the previous viewing that will help you understand or anticipate the big twist and turn at the end. 

I think it's also a movie that will age well. Not all BP winners do.

Edited January 22, 2020 by slowpoked

[proserpina65]

On ‎01‎/‎13‎/‎2020 at 9:08 PM, blackwing said:

But in terms of campaigning, what I did mind and still do to this day, is pervert Harvey Weinstein basically buying Gwyneth Paltrow her Oscar.  

I hate that her win is tainted by Weinstein's involvement.  I thought she was terrific in Shakespeare In Love and quite deserving of her Oscar.  I wouldn't have been made at a Cate Blanchett win, either.  She was also terrific in Elizabeth.

On ‎01‎/‎13‎/‎2020 at 9:09 PM, kittykat said:

Agree with those who think aside from sound awards 1917 will get the shaft.  

It better damn sight get Best Cinematography.

On ‎01‎/‎15‎/‎2020 at 4:54 PM, slowpoked said:

I think that argument holds more water when the director isn't nominated at all, and the film itself is well-nominated in other categories (Greta Gerwig and Little Women).

I can see how different directors and films win their awards. Like a couple of years ago, when Cuaron won for Gravity, but BP went to 12 Years A Slave. Cuaron did a masterful job directing that movie, but 12 Years A Slave just had a bigger impact as a film overall.

Keep in mind that all Academy members get to vote on the nominations for Best Picture, whereas only members of the individual branches are eligible to vote on the other nominations.  Thus there is often a disconnect between the nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, especially since the Academy opened the Best Picture category up to more than 5 nominations.  Now, should Greta Gerwig have gotten a nomination over someone who did (my vote: Tarantino)?  Possibly, but there are only 5 director slots open so someone whose film got nominated was going to miss out.

On ‎01‎/‎21‎/‎2020 at 12:31 AM, ProudMary said:

JMO, but I think both Once Upon A Time in Hollywood and Parasite are still in the running. Also, it's always said that a film can't win Best Picture if it hasn't been nominated for editing too. Of those 3 only Parasite fits the parameter.

It's a good predictor, but there are exceptions.  I'd say 1917 was the frontrunner at this point, with OUaTiH as a not surprising possible spoiler.  Parasite has much less chance at Best Picture than it does for Best Foreign Film.

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 1/13/2020 at 9:05 PM, truthaboutluv said:

This is why some are whatever about Awards because at the end of the day it's really so subjective.  Because honestly, I watched Knives Out, enjoyed it for what it was, but at no point did I ever think Ana de Armas was giving an Oscar worthy performance. Or frankly anyone in that film really. 

I totally agree on this one.   And I'm all about genre films being nominated - if they're worth it.  I just don't get the hoopla over this or Ana's performance.

There are things that are absolutely not subjective though, like all of the acting nominees minus Erivo being white.  That points to the bias with the voting.  In my opinion this is an objective fact, not a subjective opinion.  So I think it's okay to point out the people we thought should have been nominated instead of the actual nominees.

On 1/15/2020 at 2:22 PM, Crs97 said:

I assume Parasite is up for best foreign film as well?  My guess is that it will take that award and then be done.

No, I think Parasite could win Best Picture.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Ms Blue Jay

[ProudMary]

30 minutes ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

There are things that are absolutely not subjective though, like all of the acting nominees minus Erivo being white.  That points to the bias with the voting.  In my opinion this is an objective fact, not a subjective opinion.  So I think it's okay to point out the people we thought should have been nominated instead of the actual nominees.

No, I think Parasite could win Best Picture.

There's definitely a voting bias. Case in point:  Alfre Woodard was absolutely robbed of a nomination for Clemency.  Granted, I adore her and think she merits a nomination every time she steps on a film set but this year's omission is a travesty. That she has only one career Oscar nomination--and that was 36 years ago--is unthinkable for an actress of her caliber.

And I completely agree that Parasite could win for Best Picture. Although 1917 is probably the favorite, I don't think it's a given as the winner. I think Parasite's a lock for Best Foreign Language Film and I also think Bong Joon Ho will be named Best Director. As always, JMO.

Edited to add: The DGAs are tomorrow night. Should be very interesting!

Edited January 24, 2020 by ProudMary

[slowpoked]

22 hours ago, ProudMary said:

And I completely agree that Parasite could win for Best Picture. 

I agree too. I think it stands a really good chance. The big SAG win will only help. Yes, I know, Best Ensemble Cast is not a good predictor of BP win. BUT, that could only help among those voters who are not familiar or only casually know about the movie. Like "why the heck did these people go gaga over Korean actors in a Korean movie?!"

The curiosity could only help the movie, because like I said previously, it's one of the more engaging movies to watch despite being in a foreign language. Once you start watching it, you want to watch it again to see what you missed as the movie builds up to its climax. 

It's really a shame it missed on acting awards.

[InDueTime]

Considering his recent passing, I wonder if Kobe Bryant will be in this year's "In Memoriam" montage. 

https://fox5sandiego.com/2020/01/26/kobe-bryants-oscar-win-and-mark-on-hollywood/

[Inquisitionist]

I saw Little Women today and thought it was better directed than The Irishman.  I haven't seen the other nominees yet.  And I'll probably never see Joker.

[truthaboutluv]

On 1/24/2020 at 3:44 PM, ProudMary said:

Edited to add: The DGAs are tomorrow night. Should be very interesting!

Looks like Sam Mendes is going to get his second Best Director Oscar. He's won the Globe, Critics Choice (even if he tied with Bong Joon Ho) and now DGA. Hard to see him losing the Oscar after all that.

Though of course anything is possible. BAFTA is still to come next Sunday, so that will be interesting. But yeah definitely looking like Sam and 1917 did a late season sprint ahead of the Oscar race. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by truthaboutluv

[absnow54]

18 minutes ago, truthaboutluv said:

Though of course anything is possible. BAFTA is still to come next Sunday, so that will be interesting. But yeah definitely looking like Sam and 1917 did a late season spring ahead of the Oscar race. 

Brits love awarding other Brits, so I’d be shocked if Mendes misses the BAFTA. I’d say 1917 had Best Picture in the bag at this point too, but the weighted ballot might give Parasite a fighting chance. 

[Simon Boccanegra]

My Best Picture preferential ranking: Parasite > Once Upon a Time in Hollywood > Marriage Story > Little Women > 1917 > The Irishman > Jojo Rabbit > Joker > Ford v. Ferrari.  

It's a pretty good group. The only one I can say I didn't enjoy seeing is FvF, which takes a very long time (about 110 minutes) to get to a sustained stretch of what it does best, and the lead performances are too much and too little, respectively.  

I'd love to see Pain and Glory (which is amazing) win the International category and Parasite get its due at the big finish, but...ha. Not likely. Roma settled it for me last year that when the foreign-language film is a choice in that category, that's what it's getting.

I'll probably get half of my Ronan/Banderas/Dern/Pitt acting preferences. Supporting Actor is the category I had the least enthusiasm for this year. They were all good, but nobody knocked me out. Honestly, Pesci came closest, because the character was so different from his usual lane, very controlled and reined in. But he's won before (and for another Scorsese organized-crime picture, at that), so, eh, go, Brad.  

[Was-MArsenault]

From The Hollywood Reporter:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/chinas-cctv-cancels-oscars-red-carpet-coverage-coronavirus-1274410

[Simon Boccanegra]

'Tis the season! This is one of the more positive and upbeat anonymous Oscar ballot pieces I've read, and the first of any kind I've seen this season.  I I like a lot of the unnamed director's choices. "It’s tougher this year more than any other for me. There’s five movies I really love, three others I  like, and one I’m not crazy about. The ones I really love, I have a tough time picking between..." 

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/01/anonymous-oscar-ballot-2020-director-best-picture-1202207110/

Edited January 31, 2020 by Simon Boccanegra