S29.E13: Let's Make A Move

[gesundheit]

Color me shocked that we're at the penultimate episode and I'm rooting for Natalie or Keith. I certainly would not have predicted that at the beginning! This finally got fun.

 

 

This is going to sound mean but I think if you get so badly injured that you can't compete anymore you should have yo leave the game. It's not fair everyone else has to do the challenges and you just get to sit there.

Nobody has to do a challenge. Any one of them can just sit there and forfeit. They don't, because it puts them at disadvantage in the game. Which is where she stands now: she can't win a reward, she can't win immunity, and she almost certainly cannot win Survivor. I'm fine with her staying.

[peachmangosteen]

I loved Baylor's comment that she did not have a deal with Jon and that her Mom's deal with Jon was not binding for her. It was nice to see Baylor stick to that. It would have been even better if Baylor had said "So what, this is Survivor, you stab people in the back." But Baylor has really started to come out of her shell and started to show some backbone. Perhaps hanging out with Natalie has been good for Baylor.

 

Maybe Baylor's bond with Natalie has been good for her. She really has grown since the beginning, IMO. And she really does seem quite close to Natalie. I think their friendship is cute.

[Guest]

I'm wondering if maybe Jaclyn has Jon's idol now. He didn't appear to take anything with him when he left expect his water canteen. Maybe he left his bag at TC (or at camp, if he was really stupid) and Jaclyn can now use it next TC. I kinda hope so since that'd be fun.

 

I'm pretty sure that idols can't change hands that way.  I think if you get voted out with an unplayed idol in your possession (regardless of where it physically is), the idol is out of play.  If people could pass it back and forth we'd see that all the time at tribal.  

 Also I noticed that Missy went from having maybe a sprained ankle to calling it a "broken foot" as soon as she knew she wasn't getting pulled from the game. I bet being around Missy is exhausting in real life. I did like seeing Keith checking her ankle though and seeing how much she could move her foot. He's a fire fighter so it's possible he's also a paramedic, which is weird because it's hard to think of him as having any knowledge about things.

I think the show medic told her it was probably broken since it was getting worse, not better.  

 

I was glad they let her stay in because he's right that unless she makes the break worse, it doesn't really matter how long she waits to set and heal the bone.  Immobilize it and soldier on.  People wait weeks to get broken bones diagnosed and reset all the time.  I wonder if she gets any pain shots or anything, though.  

[vibeology]

I get that the players may be worried about the locked down vote Jaclyn has or Keith has but they shouldn't. It's only one vote. No one can win Survivor with one vote. The only scenario I come up with where Jaclyn comes out competitive is a Missy/Baylor/Jaclyn final and even then she's got 3 votes maybe. Jon, obviously plus Alec and maybe Reed if he's still bitter about Missy/Baylor. Keith wouldn't vote for her and Wes will vote with Keith. Natalie won't vote for her and and I don't see the other guys going her way either. The math isn't in her favour and I hope Natalie doesn't waste a tribal to vote her out when she doesn't seem like a threat.

[peachmangosteen]

The math isn't in her [Jaclyn's] favour and I hope Natalie doesn't waste a tribal to vote her out when she doesn't seem like a threat.

 

I agree. I think it'd be a mistake for Natalie to go after Jaclyn now. She needs to take out Keith.

 

I'm not sure if this really goes here, but it's a funny fact, every person named Natalie that's been on Survivor has made it the the finale episode.

Edited December 11, 2014 by peachmangosteen

[Eggman]

I can see everyone left voting Jaclyn out.

If they have any sense they'll try to keep her as a goat.  I'm guessing she only has one vote on the jury.   This is why I think they didn't go for her instead of Alec the episode before.

So happy for Natalie! ... as long as she doesn't go nuts and NOT play her idol she is guaranteed a final 4 position.

F5 is her last chance to play the idol, and I'm pretty sure she knows that.  (I suspect Jon was trying to keep his idol for F5 as well.)  One thing this season has shown us is who is the evil twin and who is not.  If Natalie doesn't win, I'm guessing she's a lock for returning. 

I think her last threat is Baylor and Missy realizing they can't take her to the final 3 and choose Keith instead. If that's the case, I think it's Baylor to win.

Since Natalie will be able to use her idol to get into F4, then it's up to who wins that IC.  The F4 IC is the first IC in the game where the winner actually has strategic power outside of their social positioning.  If the F4 IC winner chooses someone to boot, then the two remaining non-chosen unprotected players are at a huge risk if they don't vote for that chosen person.  They can tie (if the other unchosen person votes for them,) or go home outright (if they vote for each other, since then the chosen one essentially determines who goes home.)   Run the scenarios.   The F4 (and if there is one, F3) immunity challenges are the key.

[Dobian]

I don't see Natalie not making the final three.  Once there she has the strongest case to win.  She's won challenges, and as a single player missing her sister from the start, she has not only made it this far but is now the one pulling the strings.

[peachmangosteen]

Also, her edit is definitely supporting her case as winner. However, Josh, Jeremy, and Jon also got that. And really, the editing actually makes it so I could see anybody winning honestly. (Except probably Jaclyn, since she didn't even get as many segments on her medical condition as Jon got about it.) The editing has been very strange this season, but it's ended up making the season more interesting than I thought it'd be/more interesting that it really is probably.

[ProfCrash]

The only way Baylor, Missy, or Jaclyn win is if they are the final three. Baylor has been called a brat and lazy by everyone who left the game. Missy has annoyed folks by defending Baylor and now has participated in voting out Jeremy and Jon, both of whom thought they had an agreement with her. She has not won anything and has whined her way into how many rewards? So, no votes there. Jaclyn did not talk with Keith, Wes or Alec and called them out for their bad behavior. She flipped on Josh and Jeremy and threw a temper tantrum that led to Reed being voted out. She won nothing and found nothing. She was seen as an extension of Jon, a pretty spoiled one at that.

 

Keith could win if Natalie is not there because he can make a case that he is an underdog who made it to the end and he won challenges. And he has alliance members on the jury.

 

Natalie has this thing locked up if she makes the final.

[JudyObscure]

The math isn't in her [Jaclyn's] favour and I hope Natalie doesn't waste a tribal to vote her out when she doesn't seem like a threat.

 

I'm hoping the same thing and although I know Nat needs to get rid of Keith I would like to see her keep him until Missy is gone.  Missy is a very sympathetic figure to most of these youngin's who seem to see her as a brave 90-something soldiering through the hardships.  Right now I think Keith will do whatever Natalie tells him to do but there's always the problem of Keith's Tribal Tourettes Syndrome.




[peachmangosteen]

Missy is a very sympathetic figure to most of these youngin's who seem to see her as a brave 90-something soldiering through the hardships.  Right now I think Keith will do whatever Natalie tells him to do but there's always the problem of Keith's Tribal Tourettes Syndrome.

 

Good points. I do worry that Missy could get votes. And I suspect Keith will be a loyal solider for Natalie now. But I'm more afraid Keith could actually beat Natalie if only because of a boy's club type of thing or because people don't really understand just how much Natalie has done.

[fishcakes]

Nobody has to do a challenge. Any one of them can just sit there and forfeit. They don't, because it puts them at disadvantage in the game. Which is where she stands now: she can't win a reward, she can't win immunity, and she almost certainly cannot win Survivor. I'm fine with her staying.

 

I'm not sure about that. Someone here posted a link to some of the rules that have been leaked from their contracts and one of them was that you have to participate in the challenges unless you're sitting out because of numbers or it's one of those challenges where you can choose to eat instead of participate. They did make an exception once for Phillip with a water challenge because he said he almost drowned as a child and so had a fear of water. However, I have no idea if that list of rules was accurate or, if it was, if it's even still in force.

 

I think the show medic told her it was probably broken since it was getting worse, not better.  

 

He said that made him suspect that it could be broken but that there was no way to tell without an x-ray and if they took her out for an x-ray, then she'd be pulled from the game entirely. It might very well be broken, but it could also just be a really bad sprain. Not surprising that she would go from, "it's fine, I'm not quitting," when she thought they would pull her, to "it's broken! but I'm still not quitting." She probably thinks it's a good move strategically, but it seems a little transparent to me.

Edited December 11, 2014 by fishcakes

[Dobian]

I don't think Keith gets more than a couple of votes, one of them from his son.  People don't see him as a good strategist at all, just someone who has benefited mostly from circumstances.  He is a good competitor in challenges, though.

[bluebonnet]

I get that the players may be worried about the locked down vote Jaclyn has or Keith has but they shouldn't. It's only one vote. No one can win Survivor with one vote. The only scenario I come up with where Jaclyn comes out competitive is a Missy/Baylor/Jaclyn final and even then she's got 3 votes maybe. Jon, obviously plus Alec and maybe Reed if he's still bitter about Missy/Baylor. Keith wouldn't vote for her and Wes will vote with Keith. Natalie won't vote for her and and I don't see the other guys going her way either. The math isn't in her favour and I hope Natalie doesn't waste a tribal to vote her out when she doesn't seem like a threat.

I think B v. W puts a different element in play because there is a potential loved one campaigning at Ponderosa.  Jaclyn may have done very little but Jon could be at Ponderosa casually talking about how Jaclyn came up with this plan or that strategy.  That's the danger in keeping a player for an F3 if they have a loved one on the jury.  They get that automatic loved one vote plus that loved one has potentially already swayed the jury in such a way that the jury will be asking questions in a way that bolster that player.  Unless a couple has been wildly good at everything, it's better to have them with you in the final 3 than risk having one campaigning the jury.  

[gesundheit]

I'm not sure about that. Someone here posted a link to some of the rules that have been leaked from their contracts and one of them was that you have to participate in the challenges unless you're sitting out because of numbers or it's one of those challenges where you can choose to eat instead of participate. They did make an exception once for Phillip with a water challenge because he said he almost drowned as a child and so had a fear of water. However, I have no idea if that list of rules was accurate or, if it was, if it's even still in force.

What I meant by "nobody has to do a challenge" is that you can just step down if you want to and be all, "Oops, I guess I lost this one." So you don't actually have to do anything even if you technically have to report for duty.

[Charlesman]

From the Ponderosa video of Reed's exit, they explained to Keith before the Tribal what was going to happen, and he still blew it.

 

I guess the second time, either Natalie explained it better or finally he understood after having his hand held again.

[Cutty]

Yet he has brought up prior season/contestants a few times. I imagine of the Final 6 Jon was actually probably the biggest fan of the show.

 

In his Ponderosa or day after video (can't remember which one) he mentioned that his his favorite Survivor player is Tony, but that he couldn't backstab like Tony. Pretty sure Jaclyn said her favorite player was Jefra, which LOL. So yeah, I have doubts that they've watched more than the season production gave them, which was obviously Cagayan.

 

I don't have a problem with recruits but we see this increasingly on both Survivor and Big Brother that they are the majority of the cast. You can't be surprised when you get seasons with zero strategic play. (Or in the case of Big Brother, one person who knows the game steamrolling his way through everyone.) 

[Nashville]

Jaclyn has a better sense of things than Jon, which is not saying much since I think it's entirely possible that Jon was a Bubble Boy until just recently, but she defers to him way too easily. She says that maybe Natalie didn't vote for Alec by accident, he says "naaaaah," she goes "okay!" and then they talk about how pretty she is. Having good instincts doesn't mean much if she's willing to constantly subvert them to appease the dumbest guy in the room. That said, Jon does seem like a nice guy.

 

I don't think he was necessarily dumb. What I DO think, based off both his and Jaclyn's comments, is Jon is one of those people who read "The Secret" and took it to heart - that as long as you eliminate or minimize negative thoughts as much as is humanly possible and focus exclusively on the positive outcome you desire, then the positive WILL happen. Also judging from J&J's comments (particularly Jaclyn's), it usually works for him. Just not this time.

 

Plus, he was moving like crazy during that challenge! Every time they showed him he was in a new weird pose. I'm not a conspiracy theorist at all, but at one point I did wonder if they glued his damned vase down because there's no way he should have lasted as long as he did the way that he was changing position every few seconds.

 I thought he was playing very well - for a male's center of gravity, which is focused in the chest. Pulling his arms in close and suspending his chest weight from his shoulders worked - apparently - to minimize his upper body sway. Just as Natalie's outstretched-arm technique worked well for a female's center of gravity, which is focused more toward the lower abdomen/hips. They both looked pretty rock-solid for the duration of the comp - although I expect between the two of them, Jon would've played out first; his posture was killing my shoulders and back just to watch.

 I'm not sure if this really goes here, but it's a funny fact, every person named Natalie that's been on Survivor has made it the the finale episode.

So "Natalie" is the "anti-Kelly"? :)

[clee39]

Keith's performance at tribal is why I can't fault Jon for not playing the idol. If something was afoot, it's reasonable to think that Keith would give it away, and in an alliance of 5 it's the next vote where having the idol is even more critical. Not sure I can support Keith winning, but man, he made me proud at that TC.

[Lamb18]

I do NOT get why Missy is so loved by her alliance.   Jon gives up food and a shower to Baylor so she can be with Missy.... she's been right by her side for weeks.  Everyone just bends over backwards so Missy can eat, get reward, whatever it is.  People are babying her, and taking her to the end. Meanwhile, she's choosing Jon over a strategic move than will get either herself or her daughter closer to a million dollars.  She continues to show me just how non-functioning her logic skills are.  I truly feel sorry for Baylor.

I think Jon gave up the reward so he could spend some time with Jaclyn.  Natalie's determination to go to Exile Island was smart because it isolated Jon and Jaclyn.  I think Natalie's needs to get Keith out next.  I think she could pull it off by pitching an all-girls' finale.  She needs to get the pre-emptive strike because Jaclyn could make a good pitch to Missy and Baylor about how strong Natalie is and is a threat if she makes it to the end.

[kikaha]

Is it for sure an F3, and not an F2 like last season? 

 

Natalie is certainly the best player out there, and probably has been all season.  She also is outstanding at physical challenges.  But is she good at puzzles?  Her team at reward this episode had a big lead, but stumbled on the puzzle and lost. If the FIC has a big puzzle element -- like e.g. in Sophie's season -- Natalie might not win it.  And if she doesn't win the FIC, the others would be crazy to take her with them. 

[ProfCrash]

We saw Natalie coach Keith on his behavior at tribal. I would put good money on her telling him to say that the five was tight, they should use him as a vote but no one will, and gave him other things he was allowed to say. Keith knew that Jeff was coming to him at tribal and seemed to have a prepared statement. It was pretty fricking humorous to watch.

[Turtle]

Excellent points you've all made about the F3.  And I agree that, with 5 still left going in to the finale, it almost has to be a F3 instead of F2.  I wonder if the players know whether it's a F3 or F2.  I hope so, because that majorly affects strategy, especially in a B v. W season.  If it's F3, Nat would be smart to take Missy and Baylor (assuming she's not booted at F4).  But if it's F2 and she *thinks* it's F3 and takes Missy and Baylor, she's screwed unless she wins immunity. 

 

I don't think Nat will be booted at F4.  If Jaclyn goes at F5, it will be Keith, Missy, and Baylor in addition to Nat.  Missy and Baylor have been really consistent in not wanting anything to do with Keith, Missy a little more so than Baylor perhaps.  I don't see them going to Keith to vote out Nat.  And I don't see Keith agreeing to it if they did.  If Keith goes next, it could be a little more complicated because Jaclyn will be gunning for Nat, and it's entirely possible that Missy and Baylor will think they have a better chance at final tribal against Jaclyn than Nat, Missy's "loyalty" notwithstanding.  So here's hoping Jaclyn doesn't win immunity at F5 and they boot her.  

[Ms Blue Jay]

I like to think I can admit when I am wrong and boy was I wrong about Jon.  What a buffoon slash moron.  

 

This. Jon is very stupid. I'm not sure if stupid if the right word, but he just has no perception or insight about, well, anything.

 

As another poster said last episode, "Jon realizes nothing."  My, how incredibly right that poster was.

 

Thank goodness Missy did the right thing in the end.  Credit to her.  She was talking nuts but at the end she acted logically.

 

That was a great vote and an excellent plan. Natalie should be proud. I love that after getting instructions to act defeated at Tribal, Keith cut Jeff off to put on a show for Jon. After his past tribals I thought it was adorable.

 

LOL, Keith rushing to play his part.  That was so stupid, and scary, yet hilarious.  What is wrong with him!  He's just so unable to deceive it's utterly hilarious!  It's just this incredibly precarious balance each time, bringing him to TC.  Haha.  

Edited December 11, 2014 by Ms Blue Jay

[Guest]

He said that made him suspect that it could be broken but that there was no way to tell without an x-ray and if they took her out for an x-ray, then she'd be pulled from the game entirely. It might very well be broken, but it could also just be a really bad sprain. Not surprising that she would go from, "it's fine, I'm not quitting," when she thought they would pull her, to "it's broken! but I'm still not quitting." She probably thinks it's a good move strategically, but it seems a little transparent to me.

If the medic told me a sprain would be healing not worsening and that mine was worsening, I'd probably refer to it as broken, too.  

 

I'm not sure the strategic advantage to either choice of word.  She's obviously playing injured and anyone in her position this close to the end would do the same thing-- keep playing if the show let them.  I don't think she'll get any jury points for playing 4 days with a broken bone in her foot.  Maybe.  I think as a juror I'd give it about as much weight as playing with a bad sprain.  

[SlackerInc]

This. Jon is very stupid. I'm not sure if stupid if the right word, but he just has no perception or insight about, well, anything. I think Jon would've been gone a long time ago if it weren't for Jaclyn having such a good read on people. 

 

 

When Missy was going on about loyalty I was like, "Bitch, you dropped Jeremy like a hot potato for Jon!"

 

 

Yet he has brought up prior season/contestants a few times. I imagine of the Final 6 Jon was actually probably the biggest fan of the show.

 

I thought Jon took his boot really well for someone who was so sure he was getting to the end and winning. Props to him for that. Also, I was thinking throughout this ep that Jaclyn totally saw this Jon blindside coming but ended up deciding to let it happen. She probably knew they'd split the vote, so if she had told Jon to play his idol, she would've gone.

 

I'm wondering if maybe Jaclyn has Jon's idol now. He didn't appear to take anything with him when he left expect his water canteen. Maybe he left his bag at TC (or at camp, if he was really stupid) and Jaclyn can now use it next TC. I kinda hope so since that'd be fun.

 

I really hope Natalie wins since I think she's the most deserving (which is I word I hate to use when it comes to Survivor), but I would be OK with anyone but Keith winning. I think they've all made some good moves.

 

Interesting point about the idol.  I agree with others that he can't just give it to Jaclyn when he sees the writing on the wall.  But what if he gave it to her before they left for TC?

 

What I meant by "nobody has to do a challenge" is that you can just step down if you want to and be all, "Oops, I guess I lost this one." So you don't actually have to do anything even if you technically have to report for duty.

 

I wouldn't be completely sure even about that.  I am a big fan of professional tennis, and in that sport there is a rule against "tanking".  Let's say someone is just getting blown out of the match, and they see no chance to win, and so they just want to get to the locker room and get the match over with as quickly as possible (and/or they just start pouting about getting shellacked).  If they start just purposely hitting balls into the net or whatever, they will get fined by the PTB.  Obviously it becomes a judgement call, but at the very least they have to avoid being obvious about it.  There may be something similar with these contracts, that essentially they have to put on a good show for the viewers.

 

Keith's performance at tribal is why I can't fault Jon for not playing the idol. If something was afoot, it's reasonable to think that Keith would give it away, and in an alliance of 5 it's the next vote where having the idol is even more critical. Not sure I can support Keith winning, but man, he made me proud at that TC.

 

I agree!  Over at HitFix, Dan Fienberg said that Keith did a poor job of acting, but no one noticed, and I was like "huh?".  I was impressed--shocked, really--by how well he did compared to what we've seen in the past.

[kimbrchick]

All this giving up rewards stuff just tells me that they are getting too many rewards. I remember back in the day when those rewards were more rare and special.

 

So glad to see Jon go home. It was really dumb not to play the idol so late in the game, yet it got the result I wanted so, eh.

[Guest]

Interesting point about the idol.  I agree with others that he can't just give it to Jaclyn when he sees the writing on the wall.  But what if he gave it to her before they left for TC?

 

 

I wouldn't be completely sure even about that.  I am a big fan of professional tennis, and in that sport there is a rule against "tanking".  Let's say someone is just getting blown out of the match, and they see no chance to win, and so they just want to get to the locker room and get the match over with as quickly as possible (and/or they just start pouting about getting shellacked).  If they start just purposely hitting balls into the net or whatever, they will get fined by the PTB.  Obviously it becomes a judgement call, but at the very least they have to avoid being obvious about it.  There may be something similar with these contracts, that essentially they have to put on a good show for the viewers.

 

 

I agree!  Over at HitFix, Dan Fienberg said that Keith did a poor job of acting, but no one noticed, and I was like "huh?".  I was impressed--shocked, really--by how well he did compared to what we've seen in the past.

 

I think Jon could give Jaclyn the idol before tribal but he'd have to do it on camera so tptb knew who was in control of it from the game perspective (not physical control), and if that had happened we would've been shown it.  

 

Jeff didn't seem to care about them forgoing the trivia challenge and all just handing it to Missy.  Though I think overall they probably are told to fight hard to the end of challenges regardless, especially early on when it's not all buddy-buddy.  

[FineWashables]

I'm not so certain I'm on board with letting a contestant stay in the game if they can't compete.  Yes, I do get that all an injured person has to do is step down in a challenge to still be considered a participant, but Jeff made a point to Missy about how she couldn't have gotten into position on a platform in the first place with her broken ankle.  She didn't start and then step down; she just sat and watched.  And I do get that anyone who doesn't compete can neither win nor lose the challenge.  But -- and this is a big one, in my mind -- that person can still vote.  That's an issue for me.  Doesn't seem right.  As long as Missy's in it, and now that John's gone, she's going to vote with Baylor.  

[Turtle]

I think they're probably required to show up for the challenges, but people throw them all the time, whether it's not trying hard or even the more blatant "I'll quit if you keep me safe" endurance challenge situations.  So there can't be a requirement that they try as hard as they can; people are allowed to quit challenges.  I don't know of anyone who's ever refused to even play, though, so I'm not sure what would happen there.  And I don't think Missy should be allowed to just not do the challenges - if she's too injured to participate in all aspects of the game, she shouldn't be there.  I was okay with having her sit out while they looked and stabilized her injury, because it had just happened, but I will not be okay with her just sitting on the sidelines conserving energy while everyone else has to play for all the remaining challenges.  

[Special K]

How come they didn't give the girl with the broken wrist the opportunity to continue?

[threebluestars]

I didn't think I'd be rooting for Natalie at all when I heard she and Nadiya were going to be on the show - but I think what annoyed me about them was how they argue and scream at each other all the time. Apart, I've found Natalie extremely awesome. She deserves to win.

[Gentian root]

"My Mom never quits."

Your Dads agree.

[candall]

From the Ponderosa video of Reed's exit, they explained to Keith before the Tribal what was going to happen, and he still blew it.

 

I guess the second time, either Natalie explained it better or finally he understood after having his hand held again.

Amazing when people listen to strangers more than loved ones.  It was Wes who was tasked with wrangling Keith prior to the "Stick to the plan!" TC and obviously those instructions went in one ear and out the other.  Jaclyn told Jon to play his first idol, but he wasn't going to do it until he heard it from Natalie.  Jon twice pooh-pooh'ed Jaclyn's misgivings about Natalie's "mistake"--ha--to his regret. 

 

Three weeks ago, I don't think Baylor would have told Missy "your word and my word are not same/same," so, cool.  You go, Baylor; Survivor's been good for you.

 

Too bad we didn't get to see Jeremy and Val play together.  Those two might have pulled off a Hunger Games co-win, or maybe killed each other in the effort.

[Special K]

The way Missy was bawling about whether to stay in the game or not, you'd think she was making Sophie's Choice or something. 

 

I know this game is a bubble and things are exaggerated, but my god how they lose perspective.  It wasn't like she was a racehorse they were going to put down or anything!  It's a sprain (or a fracture).  I've had both in my ankle and managed to function while they healed (even jogging and doing yoga).

 

As to Jon:  he reminds me of a previous coworker I had. She had such fixed ideas (ideals?) about how the world should work that she could not cope with things when people didn't behave the ways she thought they should.  Jon's Visualization and Power of Positive Thinking mentality only extends as far as the next person's free will.  

 

I wonder how well Jaclyn would have done without Jon.  I wonder this only a little (not like I want to see her back or anything, TPTB).

[Guest]

If I suffered out there for 35 days or whatever, I'd be crying over possibly being med-evaced against my will, too.  I don't think she agonized over the choice at all, just that it might not be up to her to decide.  

 

The broken wrist happened during the first challenge, right? 

Edited December 11, 2014 by Guest

[Pattycake2]

I think Keith has to go next.  His alliance will vote for him over the others.  Right now it's 1 vote for Missy or Jaq (Jon), 4 votes for Keith (Reed, Josh, Wes, & Alec), and 1 vote for Natalie (Jeremy).  If Keith goes, the four votes from his alliance will be redistributed.  Probably for Natalie would be my guess.    And nah, Baylor is still a coattail riding annoying brat.  She's under the wing of both Missy and Nat.  Missy loves her and Nat wants to take her lazy butt to final tribal.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Pattycake2

[Special K]

 

The broken wrist happened during the first challenge, right?

 

Yes, on a similar net.  

 

I don't recall how bad her break was, but I know my mother once fell and broke her wrist and functioned normally for a few days before it was looked at and diagnosed.  You'd think an ankle would be riskier than a wrist, but perhaps she needed surgery or something.

[rozen]

I think Keith has to go next.  His alliance will vote for him over the others.  Right now it's 1 vote for Missy (Jon), 4 votes for Keith (Reed, Josh, Wes, & Alec), and 1 vote for Natalie (Jeremy).  If Keith goes, the four votes from his alliance will be redistributed.  Probably for Natalie would be my guess.    And nah, Baylor is still a coattail riding annoying brat.  She's under the wing of both Missy and Nat.  Missy loves her and Nat wants to take her lazy butt to final tribal.

There is no way Reed & Josh will vote for Keith, the clown almost single-handedly ruined their schemes multiple times. They also actively hate Baylor & Missy, and seem to passively dislike Jaclyn. Their votes are pretty much a Natalie lock. Alec is an idiot and would probably vote for Baylor or something and try to redeem it for a date afterwards.

 

Jeremy & Jon don't think much of Keith either, it is doubtful either would vote for him. The only vote he will def get is Wes, and maybe Alec on some 'bros for life' spiel. He's prime goat material. 

 

My only worry is if Natalie can survive the jump from 4 to 3, imo she can't lose if she makes it to the end. Keith has been...useless. Baylor would have to do backflips why she was really independent and not just Mommy's extension (key argument: but I followed Natalie!). And just about everyone hates Missy now. 

[green]

Just saying awesome episode and you guys said it better than me.  I was rooting for both Twins from day one and even further back on TAR for that matter.  Love those guys.  Glad one made it this far.  But I do wonder if this will change their relationship going forward as one is suddenly a Survivor "star" and the other is a trivia answer.  Must be a bit rough for Nadiya.  Glad they showed Natalie thinking about her on Exile Island this episode.  I think she has done everything possible to include her sister on this adventure but still it must be bittersweet for Nadiya.

 

I am worried for Natalie at Final 4.  She can only play the idol at Final 5 and she isn't one to keep it in her bag like a Jon.  Though there is also the possibility she could use it on someone too though I can't come up with a scenario for that.  Maybe saving Jaclyn (or Keith) over Missy because she thinks "Mommy" will get some votes but that would be more than dangerous and not too smart for little or no gain so I don't see that happening.  But by this time in the game with the Survivors having little to think of but plots inside of plots and "big moves" to showcase to a jury for the sake of making a move, some players start to out think themselves going down the paranoia rabbit hole.  Don't do it, Natalie.  Play it cool.

 

Worst case is Keith wins the next immunity challenge cause he could maybe get the most votes of the other four based on his winning immunity challenges.  Though I think that is pushing it because right now I only see Wes and maybe Alex voting for him.  And Alex only cause he is a clueless recruit that doesn't know how the game is played and will just tag along with Wes.

 

I think Natalie has Jeremy's vote (100% sure) as well as Josh and Reed who are big fans of the show and appreciate good gamesmanship.  Keith was in their alliance by default due to numbers only and not by choosing who they would like to ally with.  They even said they weren't too thrilled to be in the other alliance with those idiots from the get go.  It was just all about numbers.  They have no real pull to Keith for sure.  And as rozen said above (we cross-posted), he pretty much destroyed their game by being so clueless.

 

If Jaclyn is not in the final three then Jon and probably her would vote for Natalie too.  That's given what people have been saying about Ponderosa Jon speeches regards Missy and that Jon seems okay about a good move made by someone he doesn't have a close, inner alliance with.  But then again he may forgive his "mommy."  Jaclyn may vote more from emotion if she is the last player out in the final four and can't cool down enough to not get personal.  If that happens then Josh and Reed are probably the deciding votes in the end and you know Jeremy is lobbying for Natalie.  And like I said, they are big fans of the show and would probably vote for game moves first and foremost.

 

If Keith is out and doesn't immunity win his way to F3, I could see both him and Wes voting for Natalie as well since Natalie got Keith along further in the game and cause she seems to get along with the guys way better than the other women.  Even Alex could vote for her unless he remembers he was attracted to Baylor for about 2 minutes once.

 

Final Four is the scary spot for Natalie though since if Missy/Baylor had any brains they would dump her for Jaclyn (or Keith if he won F5 immunity).  Natalie really really needs to win F4 immunity.  Or pray that Missy/Baylor aren't really playing the game to win at the very end.

 

Speaking of which, if Missy/Baylor are in the final there there will be some weird speeches to the jury at that point.  I wonder if they will go all noble family member with some "vote for my mom" or "vote for my daughter" stuff.  Probably not but I don't see them getting into a knife fight with each other either.

Edited December 11, 2014 by green

[Donny Ketchum]

Also, her edit is definitely supporting her case as winner. However, Josh, Jeremy, and Jon also got that. And really, the editing actually makes it so I could see anybody winning honestly.

I agree that Josh and Jeremy had deceptive winner's edits, but not Jon.  Jeremy was also getting a clear-cut hero's edit, and Jon betrayed that hero over idol paranoia.  From there, I thought Jon, like Josh close to the merge, had a subtle-turned-obvious villain's edit.  Or at least he had the closest thing to one.  No one one-hundred-percent trusted him save for Jaclyn (even Missy was only at ninety or ninety-five percent there), Natalie, Baylor, and Keith were all tired of him and Jaclyn and thought of them as fake (whether or not they were is irrelevant; that was just how they were perceived by the other castaways), and the editors just left in so many moments of Jon annoying the others and being seen through by the jury.  Nothing about his edit screamed "winner" to me.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Donny Ketchum

[SlackerInc]

I think Jon could give Jaclyn the idol before tribal but he'd have to do it on camera so tptb knew who was in control of it from the game perspective (not physical control), and if that had happened we would've been shown it.  

 

Jeff didn't seem to care about them forgoing the trivia challenge and all just handing it to Missy.  Though I think overall they probably are told to fight hard to the end of challenges regardless, especially early on when it's not all buddy-buddy.  

 

I'm not so sure they would have shown the idol transfer.  They like to play coy with us sometimes and then show us stuff in the next episode.

I thought Jeff did seem pretty annoyed.  He has that pissy way he gets sometimes, like when someone's going to quit (or like early this season when people were trying to trade flint for rice)...and it sure seemed like it was coming out in this case.

ETA: Can't there be a special thread for discussion of "winner edits", "villain edits", etc.?  I really hate it (I think it's either wrongheaded or spoilerish, depending on how accurate it is, and has nothing to do with the actual strategery of the game), and it doesn't seem like it really qualifies as discussion of the episode.  Anyone with me on this?

 

Edited December 11, 2014 by SlackerInc

[Charlesman]

I'm not sure exactly what it says about the Game of Survivor, but, it'd be interesting to have twins that pretty much all of us find indistinguisable end up with one being voted out first, then the other winning the whole thing.

[Guest]

I'm not so sure they would have shown the idol transfer.  They like to play coy with us sometimes and then show us stuff in the next episode.

I thought Jeff did seem pretty annoyed.  He has that pissy way he gets sometimes, like when someone's going to quit (or like early this season when people were trying to trade flint for rice)...and it sure seemed like it was coming out in this case.

ETA: Can't there be a special thread for discussion of "winner edits", "villain edits", etc.?  I really hate it (I think it's either wrongheaded or spoilerish, depending on how accurate it is, and has nothing to do with the actual strategery of the game), and it doesn't seem like it really qualifies as discussion of the episode.  Anyone with me on this?

 

Good point... they could show us a flashback of Jon giving the idol to Jaclyn.  But do they ever use flashbacks?  I think that we would have to see it happen, if she does have it and if it affects the game (and how could it not?)

 

Sometimes Jeff seems more disdainfully amused with players than anything.  He's kind of grown on me over the years.  He seems less ... alpha male obsessed?  Though I did balk at his comment when Jon left... something about "Now this game is wide open!", or something.   It seemed to imply that while Jon was there things were all sewn up?  I think this game is usually 'wide open'.   

[bluebonnet]

 

ETA: Can't there be a special thread for discussion of "winner edits", "villain edits", etc.?  I really hate it (I think it's either wrongheaded or spoilerish, depending on how accurate it is, and has nothing to do with the actual strategery of the game), and it doesn't seem like it really qualifies as discussion of the episode.  Anyone with me on this?

 

I'd definitely be with you on this.  I find it definitely sucks the joy out of watching when I read on here all about the edits.  

[thejuicer]

I'm glad Jon is gone if only for the reason that I don't have to see him make out with Jaclyn anymore.

[Eggman]

I'm not so sure they would have shown the idol transfer.  They like to play coy with us sometimes and then show us stuff in the next episode.

TPTB have always treated the idol very carefully.  If someone finds it, we see that.  If someone transfers it, we see that too.  This is the reason why transfers have to happen in front of the cameras - so the viewers can see it.  There's never been an instance where the show says "hey, look what they did with the idol before TC!  surprise!!" 

 

 

Jax has nobody to work with and is going to be pissed and pissy at Natalie and Baylor.  Without Jon, Missy is going to have to follow Baylor's lead.  Keith sees Natalie as his only ally.  

 

There are plenty of reasons why one player might want to work with or select certain other players going forward, but "I've worked with this person", "I haven't worked with this person", "I can trust this person", "this person is allied with me" are the reasons for actions that will float to the top.  

 

Unless Jax wins IC she is next out. Keith is no friend of hers and the other women don't care for her either.  Logic be damned.

 

F4 completely depends on who wins the IC...

 

    Keith  -- targets missy or baylor. 

    Natalie -- hard to say.  It would be easiest to get the other two women to vote against Keith, but he's her goat.  If she targets Missy, then baylor is unhappy.  If she targets baylor, she's backstabbing because baylor has been working with her.  I would say Missy. 

    Missy -- you never know, it might be Survivor checkers.  Probably targets Keith, because hairy and spits.

    Baylor -- not out of the question.  Will take her mom, might have sense and vote out Natalie, or could take the easy vote and target Keith. 

 

I see an F3 of Keith, Natalie and Baylor, with Natalie squeaking by for the win.  YMMV. 

[KimberStormer]

It's so exciting that all the big dog male players are out.  And the last man standing, Keith, is still somehow a credible threat to win, in my mind.  I believe I am catching on to the editors' strategy: "This season is boring so let's edit it to be a complete mystery" which is great.  Dear editors: always edit like this.  I have no idea who will win.  I also love their Cassandra edit of Jaclyn: they show us every time she says something completely right which Jon ignores.

 

I'm still not on the Natalie love train, I must admit.  I don't dislike her or anything, and I would be very happy with her winning.  But to me she's just a regular, decent Survivor player.  I'm glad she's playing, but I'm not blown away.

 

If Nat wins, there's no doubt that she controlled or influenced the game from start to finish.

 

There is plenty of doubt of that.  I do not believe it at all.  What has she controlled until the last two episodes?  Missy has a better claim to this than she does.  Missy has still never been on the outside of a vote.

 

She would be, though.  If Natalie is being a sore winner, then Jaclyn, from that preview, is being an even sorer loser.  Then again, so was Jon when Drew got blindsided.  So they're two peas in a pod, pretty much.

 

You're remembering the "next time on Survivor" preview baloney.  Jon was not a sore loser.  He was just explaining why he was worried about being left out of that vote and what Drew had said to him.

 

Meanwhile, she's choosing Jon over a strategic move than will get either herself or her daughter closer to a million dollars.  She continues to show me just how non-functioning her logic skills are.  I truly feel sorry for Baylor.

 

No, she chose Baylor over Jon.  Whether or not she technically voted for him, she helped to take him out and didn't warn him.

 

I wish they had showed us more of this 'bratty' Baylor that the players keep talking about.  I still can't see her as bratty.  Immature maybe, but only because she's young.  Other than that, she's been a fairly decentish player.  She's not out there making up the big strategy, but she's definitely made up her own mind about things when presented with something.  She's been doing that from the start.  

 

Agreed!  Although it seems that for most people, Baylor's "brattiness" has been evident from the beginning.  I haven't seen it myself, but I accept that it's there because of the exit interviews. 

 

That 2-2-2 first vote was genius, as was pre-planning the re-vote.  Loved it.  First time I've been impressed by any strategy all season, but I was super-impressed by the foresight in making the plan, and in planning what would happen on the re-vote.  I never would have thought to plan a 3-way tie.   

 

This is an absolutely bog-standard split-vote plan.  Planning the re-vote is what you always do on a split vote, since Cao Boi came up with Plan Voodoo in Cook Islands.  And it's frequently a 3-way tie.

 

Oh man, that was beautiful, it really was. 

Edguardo's boot-out, Cirie's 3-2-1 vote out - and this one. big huge moves.   

 

See to me this is crazy hyperbole.  A regular old split vote?  It's been done a million times.  Don't get me wrong, it was a good move.  But not as good as Reed's would have been, and certainly not on the level of Cirie's triple play.

 

In his Ponderosa or day after video (can't remember which one) he mentioned that his his favorite Survivor player is Tony, but that he couldn't backstab like Tony. Pretty sure Jaclyn said her favorite player was Jefra, which LOL. So yeah, I have doubts that they've watched more than the season production gave them, which was obviously Cagayan.

 

I don't have a problem with recruits but we see this increasingly on both Survivor and Big Brother that they are the majority of the cast. You can't be surprised when you get seasons with zero strategic play. (Or in the case of Big Brother, one person who knows the game steamrolling his way through everyone.) 

 

I feel sure Jon has mentioned other seasons, though I can't remember which right now.  The two of them flipped and flopped his way through the game like Rob C, which back in my day we called "great strategic play", not "zero strategic play".  Is Jon a Rob?  No.  But he's not a zero either.

 

I would honestly be happy with anyone left winning at this point.  I'm not rooting for any of them, but I'm not rooting against any of them either!  It's a pleasant enough situation, though it means this season is a real dud for me.

TPTB have always treated the idol very carefully.  If someone finds it, we see that.  If someone transfers it, we see that too.  This is the reason why transfers have to happen in front of the cameras - so the viewers can see it.  There's never been an instance where the show says "hey, look what they did with the idol before TC!  surprise!!" 

 

Yep.  The closest they've ever come is Amanda pulling out the idol in Micronesia but that was well-established beforehand.  And people still cried foul.

Edited December 11, 2014 by KimberStormer

[LanceM]

How come they didn't give the girl with the broken wrist the opportunity to continue?

 

Jeff addressed injuries and when they pull people from the game with Dalton Ross:

 

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/12/11/survivor-jeff-probst-missy-injured/

 

It’s not a hard fast rule because every injury is so specific. But here’s the general approach—if you are in a life-threatening situation, we pull you. Period. That could even be a tiny little cut on your little finger, which we fear could get infected and get in your bloodstream. If so, you’re out. This happened to James way back when. But if you’re not in danger then it’s up to you. You can choose to leave the game due to pain or injury, but if medical doesn’t pull you then it’s still considered a quit, even though it may be unbearable. But if you fall in between—you’re not in a life-threatening situation and you don’t want to quit—then we assess on a case by case basis.

 

What we won’t do is anything that will give you an advantage. For instance if you are really weak from lack of food we won’t give you an IV to get you nourished and feeling better. But, what we can do is lance a boil that is really bothering you, or give you stitches for a small cut, or a wrap if your knee feels a little wonky. In Missy’s case the question centered around whether the foot was broken or not and how best to treat it. Because there were only a few days left in the game, our doctor felt fine protecting the foot and giving her some sticks to help her walk. Had this been early in the game she would have been pulled—no question about it. So what we did for Missy did not give her an advantage, it just allowed her to continue on, albeit at a major disadvantage. Hope that makes some sense. It’s tricky without a specific situation.

[SlackerInc]

I'd definitely be with you on this.  I find it definitely sucks the joy out of watching when I read on here all about the edits.  

 

Yay, I'm glad there are at least two of us and it's not just my cranky hobby horse.  And think how much the edit fans would love their special thread!  Win-win all around.  :)