Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

[NumberCruncher]

LMAO!  Seems their sucky promo strategy of "look at all of these shiny new characters" and "back to basics--sort of" really worked out for them.

[Morrigan2575]

On the bright side both No Tomorrow and Frequency appear to be DOA. So Arrow is totally safe for renewal 

[Guest]

LOL. I know I shouldn't laugh but that's what you get for alienating all your fanbases. Yikes.

[Sakura12]

Yikes, that really bad premiere numbers for Frequency. 

[Belinea]

1 minute ago, Angel12d said:

 I know I shouldn't laugh but that's what you get for alienating all your fanbases. 

Amen to that...

[apinknightmare]

If the trend of drops after episodes that show Oliver/Felicity on the outs/not in a good place continues, just imagine how bad next week's ratings are gonna be. 

[Soulfire]

I'm wondering if Arrow won't hit its new series low already next week.

[thegirlsleuth]

Wow, that's painful.  And it looks like it was driven by the loss of female viewers.  

[tv echo]

TV Ratings Wednesday: ‘Frequency’ and ‘Arrow’ start slowly on a down night overall
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2016/10/06/tv-ratings-wednesday-oct-5-2016/

Quote

Note: Some stations in the Southeastern U.S. pre-empted their prime-time schedules for coverage of Hurricane Matthew.

The numbers for Wednesday are down almost across the board, which is not good news for a pair of premieres on The CW:
*  *  *
Wednesday was a down night for nearly every show on the broadcast networks, with nothing improving on last week and only a few series even holding steady.

Edited October 6, 2016 by tv echo

[JenMD]

I'd feel bad, but they kind of deserve the wake up call at this point.  Also, I watched Lethal Weapon live (which, imo, was the much more entertaining option) and made Arrow wait.  First time I've ever done that.  Felt good (I'm not a Nielsen viewer, so it doesn't really matter anyway).

[dtissagirl]

14 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

On the bright side both No Tomorrow and Frequency appear to be DOA. So Arrow is totally safe for renewal 

I think Arrow has legit hit my favorite sweet spot in which ratings don't matter a lick to renewal anymore, but they matter to ~narrative tweaking~. YAYNESS.

[RussianRoulette]

Oh. Ouch. They kinda need the wake up call but still. Hard pill to swallow. 

[looptab]

Wonder what strategies they'll adopt this next week to try and get better ratings - promo-wise, of course.

[Chaser]

15 minutes ago, apinknightmare said:

If the trend of drops after episodes that show Oliver/Felicity on the outs/not in a good place continues, just imagine how bad next week's ratings are gonna be. 

Watch Felicity get a feature in the sneak peaks.

I wonder if there would be a call from the network. 

Hehe

[quarks]

I want to wait for the adjusted numbers before saying too much, but I do want to note that the southeastern U.S. is bracing for a category four hurricane. As the article above noted, not only did that preempt regular programming in several markets, but presumably viewers in several Florida, Georgia and South Carolina markets (including Miami, Orlando/Daytona, and Jacksonville) were busy with hurricane preparations and/or evacuations, and understandably decided to put off watching television, including Arrow.

[dtissagirl]

Plus, L+3 and L+7 numbers will make more clear if the demo actually ditched.

[NumberCruncher]

2 minutes ago, quarks said:

I want to wait for the adjusted numbers before saying too much, but I do want to note that the southeastern U.S. is bracing for a category four hurricane. As the article above noted, not only did that preempt regular programming in several markets, but presumably viewers in several Florida, Georgia and South Carolina markets (including Miami, Orlando/Daytona, and Jacksonville) were busy with hurricane preparations and/or evacuations, and understandably decided to put off watching television, including Arrow.

Okay, okay, I'll buy this and you are probably right that the hurricane is skewing the numbers.  I do wonder about Twitter ratings though.  Seems most of the tweet-centric fanbase didn't seem to jazzed about last night's episode.  It was eerily quiet.

[quarks]

1 minute ago, NumberCruncher said:

Okay, okay, I'll buy this and you are probably right that the hurricane is skewing the numbers.  I do wonder about Twitter ratings though.  Seems most of the tweet-centric fanbase didn't seem to jazzed about last night's episode.  It was eerily quiet.

It's honestly been far too long for me to recall the exact numbers, but if memory serves, Katrina and Rita wiped about about 8 to 10% of total U.S. viewership for a bit there, both before and after those hurricanes hit. Florida's a huge, heavily populated state, and news reports showed a number of people evacuating from the Charleston, SC area, so it's possible that hurricane preparations may have affected about 10% of Arrow's U.S. viewership.  I suspect network executives will also be taking that into consideration.

I don't know what impact the hurricane might have had on the Twitter numbers though.

[Chaser]

One article had the ratings down 36%. There would have to be a huge bump in Live + to get it near their other premieres.

[kismet]

34 minutes ago, JenMD said:

I'd feel bad, but they kind of deserve the wake up call at this point.  Also, I watched Lethal Weapon live (which, imo, was the much more entertaining option) and made Arrow wait.  First time I've ever done that.  Felt good (I'm not a Nielsen viewer, so it doesn't really matter anyway).

Yep, that's exactly how I feel. They've consistently proven they have no idea how to promote their show. They seem to not understand their audiences. And have relied too long on the actors saving the show from their crappy storytelling choices. Sadly, the script found a way to make even the actor's efforts futile.

I'm not a Nielsen viewer and I opted to go to the grocery store instead of tuning in live to Arrow. Just felt good to not reward their bad behavior - even if it never gets counted in a proper ratings group.

[quarks]

12 minutes ago, Chaser said:

One article had the ratings down 36%. There would have to be a huge bump in Live + to get it near their other premieres.

Also, the hurricane impact may still apply to the Live+ ratings. 

[SonofaBiscuit]

Question: Do DVR viewings count towards ratings even if you aren't a Nielsen's household?  I read that they do, and that if you watch the entire show without fast-forwarding through commercials, it counts more towards ratings than it would if you ff.  I usually DVR various shows I want to help in ratings, start the DVR a minute or two after the live broadcast starts, and watch all commercials to give the show my ratings.  But am I doing this all for nothing??

[fromfeartohope]

Hey everyone, haven't posted in awhile because I haven't been happy about the way things were going.

 

Not happy about this...for many reasons. Yes, it the writers/network/tptb fault, I won't argue with that. But these ratings also have an impact on the actors and the crew. I do fell for Stephen, Emily, David, Willa, Paul, Echo and the crew. We know they work long, HARD hours and for this to happen, sucks.

 

Don't know how next week is going to go, but if twitter is to be believed, some are still out for blood.

[Belinea]

I don't feel that sorry for them. To me they went out of their way to make nobody excited and they angered comic fans and the people who watch for Olicity. The rest didn't sound that exciting either. So at the end you have to reap what you sow. 

[SmallScreenDiva]

39 minutes ago, SonofaBiscuit said:

Question: Do DVR viewings count towards ratings even if you aren't a Nielsen's household?  I read that they do, and that if you watch the entire show without fast-forwarding through commercials, it counts more towards ratings than it would if you ff.  I usually DVR various shows I want to help in ratings, start the DVR a minute or two after the live broadcast starts, and watch all commercials to give the show my ratings.  But am I doing this all for nothing??

I believe DVR viewings count. How much and how, I'm not exactly sure. Might be better off watching the episode on The CW site or through the app. I think those they really do monitor.

[calliope1975]

I'm also interested to see how not having it on Hulu will factor into viewing. Hulu's easy to use and reliable. I've not tried it lately, but back when I did use the CW website, it was garbage. Casual viewers may be waiting for the entire season to hit Netflix to binge. 

Also, I got rid of my Direct TV for Playstation Vue which doesn't have the CW as an option. I had to get an antenna to pick up free channels to watch it live. 

Edited October 6, 2016 by calliope1975

[SonofaBiscuit]

34 minutes ago, SmallScreenDiva said:

I believe DVR viewings count. How much and how, I'm not exactly sure. Might be better off watching the episode on The CW site or through the app. I think those they really do monitor.

*Whispers*  I actually quit Arrow, but I thought I'd ask the question here cause I figured at least one of you knowledgeable people would have an answer for me.  Thanks!

With those ratings, I won't be shocked if we suddenly start hearing less about new masked rookies/writing away from romance, etc. and more about "core characters"/Olicity finding their way back to each other.  Unfortunately for the EPs, like a half of a season has already been written/filmed, and if their viewing audience starts to bail because they hate what's on screen, they are kind of fucked (at this point, can't really change what's already on film---can only adjust what hasn't been written yet).          

Edited October 6, 2016 by SonofaBiscuit

[Chaser]

I honestly believe the PR was a part in the down turn and the Live + ratings will not make up for it.  

I also think it's a lot of fun to snark. 

However, I think others are right too. It's too early to make any conclusions. 

[Guest]

I feel sorry for the cast tbh. They're only doing their jobs. This is all on the EP's and writers (and the network for their crappy demands/shitty promo). They're the ones who deserve this low rating.

That being said, I don't think we'll ever know exactly what caused the drop. I don't think it was all because No Laurel No Arrow. And I don't think it was all because No Olicity No Arrow, although I'm sure they both played their parts. S4b was a disaster and then they just impacted that further by alienating and pissing off most of their audience. They barely had any promo and when they did it was all 'back to basics' and 'stunts stunts stunts!' and 'no romance ever, Oliver loves his city!' 

Worked out for them, huh? 

Edited October 6, 2016 by Guest

[statsgirl]

2 hours ago, quarks said:

I want to wait for the adjusted numbers before saying too much, but I do want to note that the southeastern U.S. is bracing for a category four hurricane. As the article above noted, not only did that preempt regular programming in several markets, but presumably viewers in several Florida, Georgia and South Carolina markets (including Miami, Orlando/Daytona, and Jacksonville) were busy with hurricane preparations and/or evacuations, and understandably decided to put off watching television, including Arrow.

Wouldn't it affect the overall number of viewers but not the demos?  Or are the demos based on the number of people of that age and sex in the US rather than the portion of viewers?

[Morrigan2575]

18 minutes ago, statsgirl said:

Wouldn't it affect the overall number of viewers but not the demos?  Or are the demos based on the number of people of that age and sex in the US rather than the portion of viewers?

It could affect both.  The demo reflects the number viewers within the designated ranges. So a 0.7 in 18-49A demo  [.007*126.5 million (as of 2012 data)] means that roughly 886K of the 1.86 million viewers fall between 18-49. The rest are outside of that demo. 

Also the Households were down, which could mean less TVs tuned in to watch Arrow 

This is very old, unfortunately i cant find any recent numbers. However, it's still a good explanation of what ratings mean.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/02/whats-a-tv-rating-and-who-is-it-dating-2012-13-edition/147028/

Edited October 6, 2016 by Morrigan2575

[quarks]

10 minutes ago, statsgirl said:

Wouldn't it affect the overall number of viewers but not the demos?  Or are the demos based on the number of people of that age and sex in the US rather than the portion of viewers?

It could presumably affect both, since Nielsen samples to overall households.  Also, it's possible that some potential Arrow viewers decided to watch to local hurricane coverage instead of Arrow in those markets, which would also affect the demo.  

TVByTheNumbers has much better data - including the size of the Miami, Orlando/Daytona and Charleston, SC markets - than I do, so we'll see if they have additional comments when they announce the adjusted numbers. 

[kes0704]

My viewing doesn't count anyway but I can't say I was jumping for joy to watch a show where the EP describes the season as bleak.  Grounded and gritty doesn't have to mean grim and joyless.  

Did Arrow or anything show related trend on Twitter? 

[lemotomato]

I havent seen this brought up as a factor yet, but I wonder if the fact that season 4 ended on a very down note plot-wise is a contributing factor to the ratings drop. Seasons 2 and 3 ended with optimistic/intriguing last beats-- positive OTA and Olicity moments on Lian Yu//Oliver waking up in Hong Kong, Olicity driving off into the sunset-- and the subsequent season premieres came back strong, 1.0 and 1.1. Season 1 ended a grimdark season with a downer ending; the season 2 premiere was the lowest rated of the series until last night's.

Just putting it out there, because I feel like the last of season 4 would have a bigger effect on the general audience's decision to tune in rather than the promotion, which, as is often pointed out, only gets noticed by a relatively small fraction of the audience.

[Chaser]

I believe Arrow tended in the US for a bit. I don't believe that made the Top 5, which is kind of sad because it didn't look like big numbers were posting.

4 minutes ago, lemotomato said:

I havent seen this brought up as a factor yet, but I wonder if the fact that season 4 ended on a very down note plot-wise is a contributing factor to the ratings drop. Seasons 2 and 3 ended with optimistic/intriguing last beats-- positive OTA and Olicity moments on Lian Yu//Oliver waking up in Hong Kong, Olicity driving off into the sunset-- and the subsequent season premieres came back strong, 1.0 and 1.1. Season 1 ended a grimdark season with a downer ending; the season 2 premiere was the lowest rated of the series until last night's.

Just putting it out there, because I feel like the last of season 4 would have a bigger effect on the general audience's decision to tune in rather than the promotion, which, as is often pointed out, only gets noticed by a relatively small fraction of the audience.

I agree and I think it started at 4x15. IIRC, they never gained those viewers back.

[CabotCove]

Quote

With those ratings, I won't be shocked if we suddenly start hearing less about new masked rookies/writing away from romance, etc. and more about "core characters"/Olicity finding their way back to each other. 

Then they can add people like me to the viewers they have lost, last season had nothing left for me, I only got curious about Season 5 due to the new characters they have added.  They could take advantage of their mass cast and have something for nearly everyone, if they dont they are of course going to continue shading more viewers.

Edited October 6, 2016 by DCLeague

[JJ928]

49 minutes ago, Chaser said:

I believe Arrow tended in the US for a bit. I don't believe that made the Top 5, which is kind of sad because it didn't look like big numbers were posting.

Arrow actually trended in the US most of the night & even after the east coast showing, it fluctuated between #3 & 5 for most of the hour. I didn't watch because I knew there'd be no Diggle and limited Felicity, so instead I tuned into Lethal Weapon but I kept up with the tag on twitter. 

[Chaser]

I meant it's ranking in Social Media against the other shows.

In one ranking, it's not official Twitter rankings tho. 

It is incredibly disappointing that they don't take advantage of their social media. When I started with the fandom, I felt it was so much bigger and active and their godawful PR is driving that away. 

Edited October 6, 2016 by Chaser

[SmallScreenDiva]

Are you talking about the Daily Nielsen Social? Arrow didn't make it, first time I remember that happening in a long time.

[Chaser]

Yes, thank you. 

[Chaser]

With all this talk about PR, has anyone seen an analysis of promo and ratings? Like if so so does promo ratings trend this way. If it's marketed this way, ratings trend this way. That kind of thing. 

 I'm curious. 

[dtissagirl]

Back in S1/S2 there was for sure someone in the PR dept that knew how to do targeted social media marketing. Their Tumblr was on point with 'shippy stuff, they interacted with people on Twitter. Probably one of the interns they got rid of when WB sliced all PR dept. Now the folks still working at CW PR are all old school publicists. They know how to buy an outdoor, but they have no idea how generate PR content for new medias. Their SM content is all traditional content [stills, posters, trailers].

And yeah. MTV is a great example of a PR team on a budget doing really creative things on social media. But they do employ social media experts, and the CW doesn't.

[Trini]

Also remember that besides Lethal Weapon, Arrow is going up against Blindspot (another action drama) which had some of the highest ratings on broadcast last year.

[SmallScreenDiva]

35 minutes ago, dtissagirl said:

Back in S1/S2 there was for sure someone in the PR dept that knew how to do targeted social media marketing. Their Tumblr was on point with 'shippy stuff, they interacted with people on Twitter. Probably one of the interns they got rid of when WB sliced all PR dept. Now the folks still working at CW PR are all old school publicists. They know how to buy an outdoor, but they have no idea how generate PR content for new medias. Their SM content is all traditional content [stills, posters, trailers].

And yeah. MTV is a great example of a PR team on a budget doing really creative things on social media. But they do employ social media experts, and the CW doesn't.

I remember getting shown those Tumblr posts. They were on point, especially with regards to Olicity. They reblogged a lot of fanmade stuff and also made use of the "extra" tags (after first 5) to make funny comments and stuff. 

I don't even watch Pretty Little Liars but I see their social media all over the place and they keep their fandom engaged even during hiatus. So envious.

[catrox14]

Just more food for thought.  The NL Wild Card between the Mets and Giants was last night so that may have impacted the ratings as well.

[Guest]

Arrow s4 premiere was up against the Wild Card too but that did fine ratings wise.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Guest

[catrox14]

Last night's WC game was the highest rated ever.  I think it could have made a big difference for Arrow. I think we'll see next week if it was an anomaly. I think it was.

thttp://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2016/10/san-francisco-giants-n-y-mets-espn-highest-rated-mlb-wild-card-game-ever/

Quote

Last night’s 2016 MLB National League Wild Card Game telecast presented by Hankook Tire is the highest-rated MLB Wild Card Game ever and ESPN’s most-streamed MLB event ever. The telecast generated a record 5.8 overnight rating, which surpasses the previous high (5.7) set by both the American League and National League Wild Card Games in 2015, according to Nielsen. The 5.8 overnight rating is the best for an MLB game on ESPN in 13 years, (since 2003). It peaked with a 7.1 overnight rating from 11-11:15 p.m. ET

 

**********************************************

Based on the overnights from Nielsen, ESPN is expected to win the night across all of television for Wednesday, October 5.

The 2016 MLB National League Wild Card Game also set local records, delivering a 16.0 overnight rating in San Francisco, and a 15.6 overnight rating in New York, which is the best ever for an MLB game on ESPN in those markets.

Edited October 7, 2016 by catrox14

[Pete Martell]

I think the reasons given for lower ratings (weather, competition) are probably right. I think the reasons given for people losing interest are probably right as well. There's an odd feeling of the cupboard being bare even though it's an ensemble cast and even though a lot of people have come in and out over the years. Most of the supporting cast was never developed or poorly developed, the show has never really known how to handle Olicity, they've always managed to alienate all sides with Laurel, etc. 

5 years is a long time for a genre show so ratings are likely going to be lower no matter what, but I think the show never knowing where to go, being a bit too high on itself, and increasing apathy toward the CW superhero shows in general all took a toll. 

[lemotomato]

4 hours ago, Angel12d said:

Arrow s4 premiere was up against the Wild Card too but that did fine ratings wise.

The s4 premiere was up against the Wild Card game featuring Chicago vs Pittsburgh. This year one of the teams in the WC playoff was the Mets. NYC would have a bigger impact on the ratings than Chicago, I think.

This year's game was also much more tense than last year's, scoreless until last inning. I would've picked baseball over Arrow too.

Edited October 7, 2016 by lemotomato

[tarotx]

It seems to have similar ratings to where it ended season 4 so I don't see it going up a lot in the coming weeks. It may even fall. Unless they learn to engage the fans. Either on social media or with really good promos that feature the things fans want. Oliver, Diggle, Felicity and Thea are the main cast but Felicity and Thea seemed to be "arguing" with Oliver and Diggle was missing. Plus Laurel's dead and Lance was missing in the promos. And we even got little of the new characters to even guess if they could be interesting. Only the fighting was advertised and the weird miss shot was prominent in the promos. So yeah I can see why people chose to watch other shows live. Plus Arrow season 3 and 4 are a lot better binge-watched and all we have to do is wait until May. I can see why people might want to wait until Netflix. 

Edited October 7, 2016 by tarotx