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Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods


caracas1914
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2 hours ago, Velocity23 said:

So its interesting that it seems Arrow lost some if its young female audience

“Arrow” (CW)

http://programminginsider.com/ratings/final-nationals/wednesday-final-nationals-giants-mets-espn-draws-third-largest-one-game-mlb-playoff-audience-16-years/

Women 18-34: 0.5/2
Men 18-34: 0.8/4
Women 18-49: 0.6/2
Men 18-49: 0.8/3

Oh, thanks for this, I was wondering where exactly the losses were. That's so telling, it's hilarious.

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19 minutes ago, looptab said:

As long as it's not the male demo, there's no danger.

I cant tell if this is snark or serious, so I'll treat as serious. No show/network is going to want to lose viewers, in the prime demo. I think CW still mostly targets 18-34 but unlike under Dawn O, CW wants both 18-34M and 18-34W demo.

Losing viewers (if it's a true loss, sustained/degrading) will certainly get the Execs attention.

The thing is Arrow is safe, it's in syndication, it will end up being the #3 or maybe #4 show on the.network and none of the new pilots were successful.

As @dtissagirl mentioned, Arrow has reached the point where the ratings don't really matter for renewal but can matter for narrative.

Just out of curiosity, does anyone have demo breakdowns for S4? The 18-34M looks down a little too.

 

Edited by Morrigan2575
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It was snark ;) I know Arrow is safe and that the ratings drop at this point is pretty much expected, I just meant to comment on the network increased efforts to attract the male demo and, since that's not the one that's been most evidently bailing, everything's fine for them 

Edited by looptab
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I'm curious to see what word of mouth does with this episode. The reaction seems so divided. Critics seemed to love it but I would say fans are mixed.

IMO, the PR was a problem. Of course you have the lack of but it also lacked focus on the established characters and showed little depth, everything was action and dark and gritty. Previous season promos you had the action and suspense but it was broken up with lighter character moments - Olicity moments, Felicity being a badass since always.

Honestly I didn't think the episode was that bad for OTA, Olicity or Felicity fans. But if you are just looking at PR, you would get that impression.

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Critics get paid to like the show or at least write about it in a way that keeps their access to the show. So I don't ever really think their opinion matters much  for a show with longevity like Arrow, especially in a the first episodes so long as they get better or at least don't get too horrible. A new show I think is more susceptible to critics.

I do wonder what word of mouth will do for the show. Fans are really the important part of the demo, and if the CW begins to lose those it won't be good. Ultimately, the viewers are who advertisers want to reach. That is who they pay to have tune in. If fans walk, so may advertisers.

Although, I do agree with people that it might be too early to really determine what impact these numbers will have on the show or if this trend will continue.

On 10/6/2016 at 0:55 PM, fromfeartohope said:

Not happy about this...for many reasons. Yes, it the writers/network/tptb fault, I won't argue with that. But these ratings also have an impact on the actors and the crew. I do fell for Stephen, Emily, David, Willa, Paul, Echo and the crew. We know they work long, HARD hours and for this to happen, sucks.

I can't really say I feel sorry for the cast or crew, or anyone connected to the Arrow production. They all get compensated nicely for the work that they do. At the end of the day, its their job and there are lots of jobs/professions that work LONG, HARD hours to do their job. I always find it slightly off putting when people in the entertainment industry want me to feel pity for their long hours. They are not the only industry that works long, hard hours and many others have far less perks & benefits.

I'm not happy about Arrow not doing great in the ratings. But I'm not surprised and frankly I'm not sad about it. They needed some type of shock to the status quo. The show has been progressively making bad and then worse choices. Something needed to change. I think this will be a good opportunity for the showrunners to regroup.

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Look at season 4 and the other seasons trending. They might not hold a lot of weight but, if that goes down a lot then I think we will see a change. Like it or not it is the Olicity fandom (at least a high percentage of it) who was doing the trends, getting them to trend weekly, fan art galore and they didn't just advocated for Olicity. They advocated for Oliver, Felicity and Diggle. So these haters who only think Olicity fans only care about Olicity are so wrong.

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For the last four seasons, bumps in ratings/viewers for Arrow episodes, including the crossovers, have typically been associated with one or more of the following:

1. Promoted appearance of Barry Allen

2. Promoted appearance of Deadshot

3. The post December crossover bump (seasons three and four only)

4. Promoted appearance of either a prominent DC character (e.g. Huntress, Vixen) or relatively known/prominent guest star (e.g.. J. August Richard, first appearance Brandon Routh, first appearance Neal McDonaugh)

5. Airing directly after an episode suggesting that Oliver/Felicity will get together.

6. Promoted as a major Olicity moment and/or episode.

Drops in ratings/viewers for Arrow and underperforming episodes have typically been associated with one or more of the following:

1. Airing against a major World Series game (all four seasons, most notably in season two which recorded a then-series low against a highly controversial World Series.)

2. Airing against American Idol semi-finales/finale.

3. Airing directly or shortly after an Oliver/Felicity breakup and/or an episode suggesting that Oliver/Felicity will not be together/stay together. (This trend sometimes lasts for more than one episode.)

4. Airing directly after an episode suggesting that Oliver and Laurel will get back together. (This trend typically lasts only one episode.)

5. Promoted as Laurel-heavy or centric.

6. Lacking any of the "positive" factors above.

As with all ratings trends, there are exceptions. For example, 209, which featured a number of "Olicity" scenes suggesting that the broody archer might be falling for the cheerful tech girl, was immediately followed by a major drop in ratings/viewers in episode 210 - an episode, incidentally, promoted as as Laurel heavy/centric.  In other cases, the trends seem to cancel each other out.  We saw this last season with 206, for instance, which was promoted as a "major" Olicity episode, usually a positive ratings trend, but which immediately followed 205, an episode that featured an Oliver/Laurel hug and a hint that those two were moving forward, usually a negative ratings trend, and an episode that featured the returns of not one, but two of the major love rivals to Oliver and Felicity, Sara and Ray, a negative ratings trend.  Viewers dropped. The first appearance of major DC character Ra's Al Ghul - major enough to appear in the Batman films - happened to air against a World Series game, canceling the first trend.

Intriguingly, episodes that are actually bad for Oliver/Felicity as a couple have often had decent numbers - episode 315, for instance, which featured the Ray/Felicity hookup, was a strong season 3 performer. (Ray Palmer's numbers, incidentally, tended to be all over the place in season three - he was associated with some very good numbers as well as some bad ones.) Episode 415, aka the "why, Arrow, are you making me listen to this dialogue, why" episode, with the Oliver/Felicity breakup, did decently, perhaps because it also featured Vixen. I mention this because it's not clear to me that the spoilered boyfriend caused or was the only cause for the drop in viewers/ratings; the drops typically occur after Oliver/Felicity breakups, not the episodes showcasing them.

Regarding Laurel/Laurel-centric episodes, when she stopped being featured on a regular basis (after episode 105), over four seasons and three shows, she has had seven good or decent numbers:

The series premiere of Legends of Tomorrow, which featured her cameo appearance in a number of promotions, and which outperformed Arrow that month and the rest of the series.

Her first appearance on Flash, which led to a slight bump in viewers and outperformed the Felicity/Ray appearance from the previous episode.

Her third appearance on Flash, where the ratings held steady, with only a slight drop in viewers.

"Home Invasion," which featured a bump up from the previous episode. This episode also featured Deadshot (see above) and J. August Richards (see above.)

The "Birds of Prey" episode in the second season, leading to a bump in ratings/viewers. This episode also featured Huntress, who is associated with three other strongly performing episodes. 

"Left Behind," which was heavily promoted as her first appearance as Black Canary. (It turned out to be a Felicity episode, but I'm focusing on promotion here.) 

"Midnight City," featuring her first major outing as Black Canary. 

Otherwise, whenever the promo for the episode indicates that Laurel will be heavily featured, Arrow's numbers have generally dropped, or in the case of the Constantine episode, underperformed relative to expectations. (Over on NBC, Constantine typically averaged between 3 and 3.5 million viewers, with the lowest number 2.96; on Arrow, "Haunted" received 2.6 million viewers, a slight drop from the previous week and below many season three and four episodes.) The most glaring examples include episode 210, "Blast Radius," promoted as the start of her five episode arc (in Arrow's other three seasons, ratings/viewers either remained steady or, in season one, had a very slight slip in viewers only), which dropped a half million viewers; 214, "Time of Death," featuring the much promoted/discussed "Emmy worthy" Laurel/Oliver hallway scene; 302, "Sara," where the promos focused somewhat on Ray Palmer, but mostly on Laurel's reaction to Sara's death;  "Canaries," the lowest performing episode in season 3's February sweeps, and one of the lowest performing episodes of the season; "Al Sah-him," heavily featuring Laurel and the initial use of the Canary Cry in promos, one of the worst performing episodes of the third season.

These episodes, of course, were also impacted by other factors. "Sara," for instance, wasn't just a Laurel episode; it was also the episode that immediately followed the unpopular decision to kill off Sara and an Oliver/Felicity breakup.  "Canaries" and "Al Sah-him" also followed Oliver/Felicity breakups, as did, technically, "Time of Death," since that episode aired after Oliver chose to bang Sara instead of Felicity.  "Blast Radius" followed a major shift in the show, breaking a first season promise that Arrow would not use superpowers. So it's impossible to state that featuring Laurel is the only, or even the major, reason for these drops; it just may have been a factor. 

But that also holds true for her good numbers on Arrow. Both "Left Behind" and "Midnight City" aired shortly after the Flash crossover, and may have benefited from a crossover bump from Flash viewers, something also seen in season four, when 410 and 411 earned strong numbers. (Yes, this is true for episode 511, "A.W.O.L." a Felicity/Diggle episode, which may have benefited from the Flash crossover as well.)  Her other two good Arrow episodes included two factors associated with high performing episodes: well known genre guest stars and/or DC characters and Deadshot.

In the episode following her death, ratings remained steady; viewers actually rose slightly, although by a statistically insignificant amount that easily could have been a Nielsen error. Viewers then slipped again, rose slightly for the following episode which heavily featured Felicity in promos, then slipped again, then rose slightly for the finale - staying, however, at an all time series finale low. 

Taking a look at 501 specifically, although the episode did feature genre star Chad Coleman, it otherwise appears to have been hit by a perfect storm of many of these factors:

1. A hurricane, which may have impacted viewer numbers.

2. A major baseball game - Wild Card, not World Series, but given the past numbers for Arrow, that impact can't be ruled out.

3. At least some cable companies in some markets dropping the CW from their available stations. This appears to be relatively minor (the CW is still available for the majority of U.S. households) but may have slightly impacted the numbers.  

4. An episode promoted as "ambiguous" for Olicity, with a widely spoilered boyfriend, and Oliver/Felicity remaining broken up.

5. Heavy Laurel promotion. While it was fairly clear in the previews that her appearance would only be a brief cameo, several other elements - her statue and conversations about her - correctly indicated that even though she would not be in much of the episode, much of the episode would be about her. It may be notable that although viewers/ratings barely slipped after her death, they plunged after the announcement that she would return, however, briefly, to the premiere, and that the episode would focus on her.

6. No new prominent DC characters.

7. No Barry Allen, Deadshot, or post-December crossover bump.

I don't think that any one of these factors - yes, including Laurel and a lack of Olicity - can be singled out or blamed, especially since this episode also followed a season that, to put it kindly, got mixed reviews from critics and fans, probably the single most important factor determining viewership. I just wanted to note that 501 was associated with factors that have been associated with past poorly performing Arrow episodes.  And because of both what was/wasn't in the episode, it may be difficult to scream "promo" - Arrow can't promote a major incoming DC character if the episode doesn't have one.

Now, the $100 question: what does this mean for Arrow numbers going forward? I'll be perfectly frank: I haven't a clue.  My best guess is that Arrow numbers will recover - they have in the past, after all - but may not recover until the November sweeps episodes (that is, when baseball ends and another prominent guest star shows up) or the December crossover episodes. Or not. Who knows?

But based on the multiple statements that Mark Pedowitz has made about the CW and its relationships with ratings/Netflix/Amazon/iTunes, and their decision to renew Reign last season, I don't think that any of this spells out doom for Arrow even if the numbers don't go up.  Doom for my hopes that Berlanti might find/build another soundstage so the Arrowverse shows can have more sets, but let's face it: those were pretty tiny hopes to begin with.

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But I'm not surprised and frankly I'm not sad about it. They needed some type of shock to the status quo. The show has been progressively making bad and then worse choices. Something needed to change. I think this will be a good opportunity for the showrunners to regroup. 

http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-four-ratings-38484/

Its not a new shock though, looks to me like the regroup has already happened and 5 x 01 is the result. If that doesnt bear fruit in coming weeks, well they will just have to accept that this is the new status quo. IMO.

Edited by DCLeague
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Sara's bloodlust wasn't heavily promoted in the us trailers. It made an appearance later in the week and in big season promo.  Felicity crying over Ray made an appearance and it seeming Ray centric was the big issue. Plus the twitter mentions were all negative until the end and I can see how that could affect West coast viewing.

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1 hour ago, DCLeague said:

http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-four-ratings-38484/

Its not a new shock though, looks to me like the regroup has already happened and 5 x 01 is the result. If that doesnt bear fruit in coming weeks, well they will just have to accept that this is the new status quo. IMO.

I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make here but if you're implying that Arrow's ratings were hemorrhaging at the end of S4 and thus TPTB were feeling a sudden need for damage control then that isn't true.  Here are the average viewers and demos by season from that same website you cited:  

S1 (3.2M and 0.9)

S2 (2.6M and 0.9)

S3 (2.8M and 1.0)

S4 (2.5M and 0.9).  

According to that same site the S4 season finale ratings (2.2M and 0.8) weren't all that different from the S2 season finale (2.4M and 0.9).  Yes, S3's finale was a bit higher (2.8M and 1.0), but as has been widely discussed in this thread, the S3's ratings were still enjoying an unusual bump because of the residual Flash viewers it picked up from the first crossover who ultimately petered out over time (i.e. weren't longtime Arrow viewers).   

Arrow's season premieres have always had ratings either on par with or higher than the prior season finales.  S5 has been the exception but as others have mentioned, there's really no telling whether this was because of how the show was promoted, people's apathy, or the hurricane's impact.

Edited by NumberCruncher
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51 minutes ago, DCLeague said:

http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/arrow-season-four-ratings-38484/

Its not a new shock though, looks to me like the regroup has already happened and 5 x 01 is the result. If that doesnt bear fruit in coming weeks, well they will just have to accept that this is the new status quo. IMO.

I don't think they have to accept anything.  Arrow is currently filming episodes 508/509 of a 23 episode season and has only drafted/scripted/blocked out to episode 14. That still leaves them with 9 episodes to shift direction. For that matter, although it would undoubtedly increase the amount of alcohol consumed by the writers, they can still rescript episodes 509 through 513 - very little to nothing is on film, let alone edited. 

Or they could decide that 501 is an outlier, or still decent for a cult show in its fifth season on a minor network. Or that the new incoming characters are financially worth it even if ratings/viewers drop, since Arrow does have other factors besides ratings to consider - post view revenue, ancillary revenue, synergy crossover with the DC films, and so on.  That is, I don't think we can say at this point whether or not they will make any changes to their season five plan, and not just because we're not in the room with them.

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I was curious about the female demo so I pulled up the S4 finale numbers and the biggest difference was in the male demo, not the female demo. 

I started at 4x15 and went thru the demos and the female demo fluctuated between 0.5 and 0.7 depending on the episode. The male demo looked to be the one that dropped more.

Might explain the dark, bleak, murderous promo.

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2 minutes ago, Chaser said:

I was curious about the female demo so I pulled up the S4 finale numbers and the biggest difference was in the male demo, not the female demo. 

I started at 4x15 and went thru the demos and the female demo fluctuated between 0.5 and 0.7 depending on the episode. The male demo looked to be the one that dropped more.

Might explain the dark, bleak, murderous promo.

Dropped more in episodes 4.15 - 4.23, or dropped more in 5.01? Or both?

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I'm reading it as both. I'd post them but I'm on mobile and it's difficult. In the biggest drop of the season after 4x15, it was the male demo. Female demo was consistent. 

From 4x23 to 5x01, Female demo went from 0.5/0.7 to 0.5/0.6. Male demo went from 0.9/1.0 to 0.8/0.8.

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1 hour ago, Chaser said:

I'm reading it as both. I'd post them but I'm on mobile and it's difficult. In the biggest drop of the season after 4x15, it was the male demo. Female demo was consistent. 

From 4x23 to 5x01, Female demo went from 0.5/0.7 to 0.5/0.6. Male demo went from 0.9/1.0 to 0.8/0.8.

4x15 was right around when Laurel's death was confirmed. 

 

Hey question. Is Arrow ahead of schedule compared to last year?  I swear they were just filming 4x10 during the break around Thanksgiving and now aren't they already starting 5x9? Or am I misremembering? 

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If I were going to attribute the post-4x15 ratings drop to anything, it'd be the disappointing culmination of the dumbass baby mama storyline, Felicity's miraculous walking (which is SO STUPID and still makes me laugh), and the breakup signaling rough times ahead romance-wise, which these writers have NEVER done well. Endless misery for $500 please, Alex.

If I weren't a glutton for punishment, I would've jumped ship then too. That episode belonged in the garbage. And should've been set on fire. And then set on fire again. 

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18 minutes ago, Chaser said:

Only the online fandom would have known that and a lot of people didn't even believe the photos.

LMAO I didn't believe the photos right up until the episode aired. I was like "Nah!" Haha.

Also, remember there was about 3-4 weeks between 415 and 416 with barely any promo? I'm sure that didn't help the ratings tbh.

Edited by Angel12d
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3 hours ago, Chaser said:

Only the online fandom would have known that and a lot of people didn't even believe the photos.

Absolutely just the people online but as of 4-15 we had not only shots of Laurel only in flashbacks with her dad in the season one wig but also shots of her tombstone with her name engraved on top of fairly credible sources saying they saw it in person. There were sceptics but it was right before 4-15 when the anger and vitriol blaming Felicity for everything REALLY took off.  It was like a switch over in the site that shall not be named. 

3 hours ago, apinknightmare said:

If I were going to attribute the post-4x15 ratings drop to anything, it'd be the disappointing culmination of the dumbass baby mama storyline, Felicity's miraculous walking (which is SO STUPID and still makes me laugh), and the breakup signaling rough times ahead romance-wise, which these writers have NEVER done well. Endless misery for $500 please, Alex.

If I weren't a glutton for punishment, I would've jumped ship then too. That episode belonged in the garbage. And should've been set on fire. And then set on fire again. 

I'd attribute it to what you mentioned with some percentage (perhaps smallish) also freaking over Laurel. 

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I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make here but if you're implying that Arrow's ratings were hemorrhaging at the end of S4 and thus TPTB were feeling a sudden need for damage control then that isn't true.  Here are the average viewers and demos by season from that same website you cited:  

Sounds about right  with the point Im trying to make,well I agree to disagree ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ - . 

Quote

Or they could decide that 501 is an outlier, or still decent for a cult show in its fifth season on a minor network. Or that the new incoming characters are financially worth it even if ratings/viewers drop, since Arrow does have other factors besides ratings to consider - post view revenue, ancillary revenue, synergy crossover with the DC films, and so on.  That is, I don't think we can say at this point whether or not they will make any changes to their season five plan, and not just because we're not in the room with them.

Yeah I was considering other revenue streams too, hence why I said they could always accept the new? ratings, to me its not that bad all factors considered . (I just think in doing too much rebooting, they might end up just digging themselves deeper). Of course it just my opinion, they will do what they want to do, its their right. 

Quote

Also, remember there was about 3-4 weeks between 415 and 416 with barely any promo? I'm sure that didn't help the ratings tbh.

Yup, there was that one month break. 

Edited by DCLeague
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Some interesting info about ratings in general:

Quote

Or, to put it more plainly, C3 (and increasingly C7) are quite literally the only relevant ratings data. While the networks do not make the currency data public, favoring instead the stats-padding live-plus-three-day and live-seven numbers that omit commercial deliveries altogether, the only ratings that matter to advertisers are C3/C7.

Obtaining the C3 data is like pulling teeth, as the networks certainly do not want the unwashed masses to catch on to the fact that there generally is very little different between the live ratings and the currency data. But given that C3 and C7 are the benchmarks against which some $75 billion in TV ad sales transactions are guaranteed, they should not be swept aside in favor of the inflated L3 and L7 numbers that are peddled by the networks and breathlessly regurgitated by the vast majority of outlets that cover the TV business.

http://adage.com/article/media/c3p/306274/

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CW PR is out ...

FROM THE CW

Last night's ARROW rose +4% in total viewers (1.95M) over its season premiere episode last week and held steady in all key demos (0.6/3 in A18-34, 0.7/3 in A18-49).

ARROW matched NBC in the hour in A18-34, and also ranked #3 in M18-34 (0.8/4, tie).
FREQUENCY also held even in A18-34 (0.3/1) with last week's series debut.

In Live + 3 Day delayed viewing, last week's ARROW premiere rose +49% in total viewers, +57% in A18-34, and +65% in A18-49 over its L+SD totals. FREQUENCY saw gains of +34% in total viewers, +36% in A18-34, and +35% in A18-49.

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I think nielsen will release those for all the shows.

 

Here is a spin spin spin for Tuesday also:

FROM THE CW
With increased competition on the other broadcast networks and from the MLB playoffs (congrats to the Cubbies), THE FLASH ranked #3 in the 8-9 hour among A18-34 (0.9/4), and outrated Fox in both total viewers (2.75M) and A18-49 (1.0/4). THE FLASH was also #1 in the hour in M18-34 (1.1/6).

THE FLASH typically sees substantial gains when delayed viewing data becomes available. Last Tuesday's season premiere of THE FLASH grew by +46% in both total viewers (4.615M) and A18-49 (1.9), and +45% in A18-34 (1.6) in Live + 3 Day delayed viewing versus its Live + Same Day totals alone.

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@Velocity23 Thank you for posting that! 

Seriously LOL at that PR. Ahahaha. And more forever. 

And true Live+3 as well as Live+7 is what matters in this new TV consumption setting. Which clearly they still fail to understand. whatwver the creative process, this is a business.  Without ads, demo, viewers, you're pretty much fucked.

I do understand it's the CW though, so in the grand scheme of things it might not matter as much. But alienating the audience with half-assed PR interviews  is not a good way to go. 

P.S: Sorry for being a negative Nancy all the time. This is so hilarious to me because this is pure damage control. Also, there might be a viewer fatigue about ~superheroes shows. So basically the ratings, for me, are a mix of external and entropic factors. 

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9 minutes ago, RussianRoulette said:

This is so hilarious to me because this is pure damage control.

Putting out press releases that positively spin their ratings is something they've always done whenever there was something to spin positively. It's typical behavior IMO, not damage control. 

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