Ratings And Scheduling: I Can't Do This Alone

[Morrigan2575]

Dodgers won last night, so the NLCS is definitely going to a Game 5 (at least) on Thursday night.

[catrox14]

The analysis by Showbuzz is pretty rich:

Quote

CW:  LEGENDS OF TOMORROW remained at 0.6, but SUPERNATURAL is finally starting to show its age, down 0.2 to 0.6.

Ignoring that SPN pulled a .08 last week. I'll be concerned if it remains this low. But the drop at the half hour mark is interesting. Maybe people aren't that into non-consensual mind-fucking, just a thought.

Edited October 21, 2016 by catrox14

[MysteryGuest]

It's frustrating, because I think if the writers were better, the show would still have legs.  I'm a fan, and I'm bored with Lucifer and not terribly intrigued by the BMOL, so that doesn't bode well for the season.  Mary's return is the best part, but that might not be true for everyone.  We need to have a few good MOW episodes to let the boys do what they do best.

[Morrigan2575]

2 hours ago, catrox14 said:

The analysis by Showbuzz is pretty rich:

Ignoring that SPN pulled a .08 last week. I'll be concerned if it remains this low. But the drop at the half hour mark is interesting. Maybe people aren't that into non-consensual mind-fucking, just a thought.

Wonder if people switched to the NCLS? I heard the Cubs made a late inning comeback to win Game 5.

It's also possible it could adjust up. I heard on the Arrow board that SPN was a strong 0.6.

BTW - that analysis is ridiculous.  Here were have a show in its 2nd season who has been heavily promoted and it's pulling a 0.6 Yay! Woo-hoo! Breakout the champagne.  Meanwhile little workhorse SPN is "showing its age" with the same freaking ratings. Poor SPN it's time to send it to the glue factory. 

[SueB]

I think the writing was fine.  I think we're on a bad night.  But that may not be enough to save it for a S13. 

[DittyDotDot]

4 minutes ago, SueB said:

I think the writing was fine.  I think we're on a bad night.  But that may not be enough to save it for a S13. 

I think the writing was fine too, but I also think people probably weren't expecting too much of this one given who the writers are and decided to watch something else live. I expect them to get a bump and those numbers to rise.

However, I think the show still does have legs and the ratings they're pulling are pretty good for a show in it's 12th season and on the CW. It's still holding it's own against much younger and "hipper" shows on the same network. I'm happy with these ratings, myself. 

[catrox14]

17 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Wonder if people switched to the NCLS? I heard the Cubs made a late inning comeback to win Game 5.

I'm not sure it was the NLCS in this case. The Cubs lead from the 6th inning to the end. Tied 1-1 in the 4th, Cubs added 2 in the 6th and 5 in the 8th. It was 8-2 going into the bottom of the 9th and looking dim for the Dodgers. Dodgers got two in the bottom of the 9th but really throughout the game the Dodgers couldn't get much going. 

I was on Twitter and folks were pissed off about the Sam/Toni mind rape shit. I can see them bailing if they thought that is all it was going to be.  I almost did TBH. 

6 minutes ago, DittyDotDot said:

However, I think the show still does have legs and the ratings they're pulling are pretty good for a show in it's 12th season and on the CW. It's still holding it's own against much younger and "hipper" shows on the same network. I'm happy with these ratings, myself. 

They get a lot of leeway with Pedowitz but it might not be enough if the affiliates, who as I understand it, get no revenue other than adverts, aren't happy. I dunno, I'm a little worried. 

Edited October 21, 2016 by catrox14

[catrox14]

So the finals are in and SPN stays at 0.6 but weirdly Legends of Tomorrow was bumped to 0.7. You'd think SPN would have gotten a bump as well.

So that puts SPN fifth for the CW this week which is better than 6th but still a bit concerning.

[FlickChick]

Between the Cubs and the Bears playing Green Bay, we probably lost most of the "eyes" in the Chicago market. Let's see what the +3 day and +7 day bring in this week.  But it absolutely could be the Buck-Lemming writing that turns people off. I know it does for me. :(

But - GO CUBS!

Edited October 21, 2016 by FlickChick
have to root for my team ;)

[enaiowen]

I wonder how much effect the "Rocky Horror" remake on Fox had on the ratings?

It was (IMO) awful and the couple of minutes I caught channel surfing were more than enough but I know a lot of people watched it.

[SueB]

Two more weeks.  Either they stay between .7 and .8 or they are dropping to the .6  and .7.  I don't think they'll move much off of that range.

[Morrigan2575]

On 10/21/2016 at 9:30 PM, enaiowen said:

I wonder how much effect the "Rocky Horror" remake on Fox had on the ratings?

It was (IMO) awful and the couple of minutes I caught channel surfing were more than enough but I know a lot of people watched it.

OMG, that was horrible. I turned it off after 15 minutes. I'll be really sad if RHPS took viewers away from SPN.

[SueB]

At SPNATL, he boys said they had dinner with a Peter Ross at midnight Friday and he said that the show goes on as long as they want.  

[Morrigan2575]

Peter Roth? He's the head of WBTV.  I'm not surprised, nor am i worried about SPN getting cancelled.  I just want better ratings.  I want them to be the #4 show.  Although, I got greedy after the premiere and wanted them to move up to #3.

Edited October 23, 2016 by Morrigan2575

[DittyDotDot]

I have faith they'll move back up. One episode does not a trend make. ;)

[Morrigan2575]

I do believe/hope this was an outlier. 

On the bright side SPN will not have to face The World Series at all over the next 2 weeks. Flash and Arrow will be impacted but, there are no games on Thursdays ?

[SueB]

And the NFL is back to the NFL Channel.  So, they are going against other drama (which may be challenging) but not "live sports" which usually kicks drama's butt. 

[catrox14]

There is an ongoing discussion at Arrow about ratings and someone with knowledge of the industry and ratings was saying that ratings matter to affiliates so ultimately if the affiliates don't re up with the CW because of a show's flagging ratings, the CW's hand can be forced eventually even with Roth's reassurances.

According this chart from Nielsen via SpoilerTV, SPN averaged a .7 for s11 which was good for the CW.  IMO uninformed opinion if they can keep that level, they'll be fine. The problem now is Supergirl in the mix and a bump in LoT that pushes SPN further down the depth chart.  My poor Arrow might be worse off than SPN because of the other DCTV shows.  SPN might be okay if it settles around 6.5 or 7 again but lower than 6? I dunno if even Peter Roth can justify it unless it's starts becoming a media darling, which despite the EW push, it's not really getting as much press or critical acclaim as Jane the Virgin and CEG which stay despite 3/4 ratings. If SPN ever dips to that level, I think it would be curtains. Also if it drops to that level, IMO that means the quality has dipped and I would hope the boys choose to leave before it's legacy is completely tarnished.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GLk-UktXjNgP2jWiWrY99kMzS_Yv0wiiBprQLtBae0Q/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=1590658732&range=A1%3AH40

[catrox14]

13 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

On the bright side SPN will not have to face The World Series at all over the next 2 weeks. Flash and Arrow will be impacted but, there are no games on Thursdays ?

Unless there is a rainout and they have to reschedule, it should be okay.

 

12 minutes ago, SueB said:

And the NFL is back to the NFL Channel.  So, they are going against other drama (which may be challenging) but not "live sports" which usually kicks drama's butt. 

It's NBA on TNT starts next week.  I don't think it the audience will be siphoned as much as the NFL but there will still be that competition.

[DittyDotDot]

25 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

On the bright side SPN will not have to face The World Series at all over the next 2 weeks. Flash and Arrow will be impacted but, there are no games on Thursdays ?

There's always a bright side! ;)

I'm not too worried yet. If the trend continues that could change, but they're holding steady enough for right now. I would expect the upcoming MoTW episodes to pull larger numbers. The big mythology for the season just isn't as flashy on first appearance. But a couple good nights of fun might get people to come back? We'll see.

[SueB]

An interesting note on affiliates:

For complicated reasons, I now have two places where I watch Supernatural when "home".  One receives the broadcast from DC (where I've been for 17 years), the other from Baltimore (new to me).  In DC, besides seeing some dumb commercials, there's always commercials.  In Baltimore, when they haven't sold the commercial it's literally a black screen.  For like 1-2 mins.  This is the case for Supernatural.  Which means that all the local (it's always the local commercials) commercials are not sold out.  So, Baltimore would be one of those places that the CW is not doing well, I'm imagining.

[ahrtee]

Hmmm...that sounds strange.  I've noticed that, while there aren't that many local commercials here, there are an awful lot of CW promos.  I assume that's what they use when they haven't sold the time, but I could be wrong.  (BTW, I get to watch twice too on Comcast--once on the local Colorado Springs station, and an hour later on the Denver station...and the Denver station has blocked out most of the other CW shows (Flash, Arrow, even LoT and all the summer replacement shows) with a full-screen sign saying "this show has been blocked at the request of the local station," but SPN is still shown on both channels. I guess the station/sponsors don't think it's popular enough to bother with.)  

[catrox14]

6 minutes ago, ahrtee said:

nd the Denver station has blocked out most of the other CW shows (Flash, Arrow, even LoT and all the summer replacement shows) with a full-screen sign saying "this show has been blocked at the request of the local station," but SPN is still shown on both channels. I guess the station/sponsors don't think it's popular enough to bother with.)  

Are you saying it's  local CS affiliate blocking the Denver station?

[ahrtee]

I don't know (I can check the exact wording on the notice later) but it seems logical.  They're the ones who would be losing sponsors if people watched Denver instead.  Denver would be thrilled to have a bigger audience, and Comcast doesn't care, or they would block all the shows, not just some, or not carry the station at all.

Edited October 23, 2016 by ahrtee
adding a thought.

[catrox14]

Ah, I gotcha. Yeah I can see the little guy in CS blocking the Denver channel. 

[FlickChick]

Yes, I know the World Series doesn't play on Thursdays (unless rain/snow?), but I'm here to say my Cubs won their first NL Pennant since WWII ended! So, hey guys, it's been awhile! *tm Hendricksen. Go Cubs!!!

[catrox14]

14 minutes ago, FlickChick said:

Yes, I know the World Series doesn't play on Thursdays (unless rain/snow?), but I'm here to say my Cubs won their first NL Pennant since WWII ended! So, hey guys, it's been awhile! *tm Hendricksen. Go Cubs!!!

Vin Scully's entire career happened between the Cubs pennants.  Think about that!

[catrox14]

Just FYI, I watched the gold panel where they talked about the dinner with Roth.

Jared said "It doesn't have to end if you want it to keep going".
Jared:  "I don't believe it's in writing. " (paraphrasing Roth): 'if you guys still love it and the fans still love it, then let's keep doing it".

Jensen: "I'm not making any promises".

To me the key phrase is "if the fans still love it" = ratings.

Take a listen for yourself. It's at the beginning of the video. I marked it pretty close.

Edited October 25, 2016 by catrox14
Better version of gold panel

[Morrigan2575]

Ratings matter but the reality is, CW can't launch a successful show that's not DC Comics and even those are suffering. Yes, if SPN drops to 0.2 or 0.3 they'll end the series. However,  even then i expect they'll drop it to Friday's and give it a Final Season announcement,  just like TVD.  

I've heard that the Js want to get to 300 episodes and then end. That would be 13 into S14. I honestly think (barring an insane drop in ratings) SPN will end on the Js terms more than the Networks. 

Edited October 23, 2016 by Morrigan2575

[Bessie]

My fingers are crossed that when it does end, J2 have some input as to how it plays out. 

[Demented Daisy]

1 hour ago, catrox14 said:

To me the key phrase is "if the fans still love it" = ratings.

Not necessarily.  Fans are worldwide -- and spend money worldwide.  I mean, Jim Beaver was at a Con in Mumbai this weekend.  

Ratings mean money, but not just in the U.S.

[catrox14]

1 hour ago, Demented Daisy said:

Not necessarily.  Fans are worldwide -- and spend money worldwide.  I mean, Jim Beaver was at a Con in Mumbai this weekend.  

Ratings mean money, but not just in the U.S.

 I'm aware that fans mean money but IMO that's not how I interpreted the comments. It seems to me every time this comes up, it's always been qualified by Pedowitz with 'ratings', so they still matter.  If the CW doesn't want  to continue backing the show should ratings fall to an unacceptable level, then how will new episodes be funded? Netflix?  I'd be so down for a season on Netflix.  The boys could finally swear like they should!

 

ETA:  AFAIK, the WB doesn't make any money from the con appearances. That money goes to con organizers, and the guests.  I think the WB  makes money from DVD sales, deals with Netflix, TNT, broadcast in other countries.

Edited October 24, 2016 by catrox14

[Demented Daisy]

23 minutes ago, catrox14 said:

It seems to me every time this comes up, it's always been qualified by Pedowitz with 'ratings', so they still matter.

No one said they didn't matter.  I was merely pointing out that fans =/= ratings.

[catrox14]

10 minutes ago, Demented Daisy said:

No one said they didn't matter.  I was merely pointing out that fans =/= ratings.

IMO, in this context, I think they do. I don't know why the context is being lost here.

[Demented Daisy]

Because I don't agree with your context, either.  Had they been talking to Pedowitz, I might be more inclined to agree.  But they were talking to the President and Chief Content Officer of Warner Brothers.  I think he might be more concerned with keeping up the quality of the show, which includes making sure that everyone still wants to make it.  And that the fans still want to watch.

So, in this case, I think Roth was talking more about the devotion of Jared, Jensen, and the fans.  But that doesn't necessarily mean "ratings" to me.

As always, mileage varies.

10 hours ago, catrox14 said:

AFAIK, the WB doesn't make any money from the con appearances. That money goes to con organizers, and the guests.

I mentioned the con only to illustrate the reach Supernatural has around the world, not to imply that the WB gets any money from them.

[SueB]

I think Roth is doing well with the show. I don't know how DVD sales went for S11 (I don't actually know how to track it) but international really helps.  

[DittyDotDot]

In a roundabout way, WB makes money off the cons in the context that the cons are marketing the show. 

[AwesomO4000]

Also do they get any money from merchandising? I would assume that many official Supernatural fan merchandise items are sold at those cons, though I could be wrong on that one.

[Aeryn13]

I think Vampire Diaries is a good example. The show had good ratings for the network once upon a time. Then they slipped. And slipped. And slipped. Now there was a stretch when the ratings had already dropped but everyone was still spouting how the show could go on for many more years. Heck, they even went on after their lead actress left - if ever there was a time to stop, this would have been a logical one.

Now obviously they could handle it being an ensemble cast whereas SPN can not with a main cast of two. But basically they were doing the same song and dance. And the ratings kept slipping so boom, they announced this Season as a shortened final one.

SPN has been a steady performer so far. It hasn`t experienced such a cataclysmic drop in ratings, quality IMO yes but not ratings. So the CW is still happy to do the song and dance of it continuing forever. However, IF it suddenly pulled in 0.2 and 0.3, they would most likely do the same thing and announce a shortened final Season 13. For a supernatural genre show, that could be a nice kooky number. Maybe 13 episodes for Season 13? 

But we aren`t there yet. If it continues to pull 0.6ish, it is not in any danger. Not after their new shows launched so disastrously this year and the CW will shed a few shows come next Season.    

[ahrtee]

33 minutes ago, AwesomO4000 said:

Also do they get any money from merchandising? I would assume that many official Supernatural fan merchandise items are sold at those cons, though I could be wrong on that one.

From the Creation Con site:  

Vendors may never sell PHOTOGRAPHS or SIGNABLE POSTERS or art of the actors or the actors appearing in character at the convention. Creation has a license for these items and can not have unlicensed or unauthorized images sold. Unfortunately this also includes ALL fan art representations of the characters, whether one original or prints made of such. On occasion we do allow pre-autographed items of characters/actors, please write to asponsor@creationent.com for permission to sell these items. WE ARE NOT ALLOWED TO HAVE THE SALE of UNLICENSED CRAFT TYPE ITEMS which includes studio owned logos, names, images, or sayings. Please do not bring these types of things, including t-shirts, posters, bags, etc. as your table will be closed with no refunds being offered. ...  AT SUPERNATURAL CONVENTIONS VENDORS CAN NOT SELL THE "AMULET" AS FEATURED IN THE PROGRAM. DO NOT BRING ANY AS THEY WILL BE SHUT DOWN. THANKS!

Creation also holds the licenses for general souvenir merchandise for much of Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries, and Once Upon A Time. This would be photographs, apparel, hats, glassware, the amulet from Supernatural, etc. We also try to carry third person merchandise when we can. We are not looking for competition at the conventions because the vendors rooms are small. If this is your product line you will do far better at comic con situations and avoid the direct competition. If you have a STUDIO LICENSED item from Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries, Once Upon A Time, or The Originals please contact us via asponsor@creationent.com for approval to sell such item(s). Anyone selling an item that we deem to be competitive to us that has not written to the email address given will be asked to eliminate that item from sale, even if it is the majority of their booth. 

 

(emphasis mine).  

So it looks like Creation gets the money for sales of merchandise.  I imagine the studio gets money from licensing rights, though it seems as if Creation holds licenses for most of the general souvenir merchandise and doesn't want any competition at the cons.  (If their licensing works the way I remember things used to, for large organizations like Creation there's a flat fee for the license, which may be based on the amount of items produced, but has nothing to do with the number of items actually sold; so there's no real monetary gain for the studios at the cons.)

[catrox14]

As much power and influence as Roth as in his role as President of WBTV,  the CW is still a joint venture with CBS. He can advocate to keep SPN on the CW but he's not the last word. Since CBS doesn't own SPN they don't have a compelling reason to keep it over their own productions like Supergirl and No Tomorrow.  If SPN keeps falling down the ladder of ratings, seems to me they would look to keep their own productions on-air just  WB does with Supernatural.  Jared and Jensen have been around too long to not understand the whys and wherefores of all this. So that's why, in my opinion, fans  = eyeballs watching live and on DVR. YMMV

[catrox14]

This is interesting.

Quote

 

Nielsen will officially be introducing out-of-home ratings next April. Using its sample of 75,000 portable people meters across 44 markets, Nielsen will start to give clients a more scientific look at who’s leaving their humble abodes to watch NFL games and “Empire.”

These out-of-home numbers won’t be integrated into the ratings used in ad deals (the “currency”) until “a later stage,” according to Nielsen. The data that will be released to clients starting in April will include numbers stretching back to January, with more batches including data from September through December of this year to follo

 

 

http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/nielsen-out-of-home-ratings-espn-1201898828/

[Morrigan2575]

3 hours ago, catrox14 said:

As much power and influence as Roth as in his role as President of WBTV,  the CW is still a joint venture with CBS. He can advocate to keep SPN on the CW but he's not the last word. Since CBS doesn't own SPN they don't have a compelling reason to keep it over their own productions like Supergirl and No Tomorrow.

Supergirl is a WB Studio Production, CBS doesn't own it.

 

3 hours ago, Aeryn13 said:

And the ratings kept slipping so boom, they announced this Season as a shortened final one.   

It also didn't help that Kat Graham and Ian Somerholder announced that S8.would be their final season

[catrox14]

@Morrigan2575 Thanks for that correction. For some reason I thought it was when it was at CBS.

Edited October 24, 2016 by catrox14

[MysteryGuest]

Well, I'm hoping they have some interesting episodes coming up this season that will keep the ratings fairly consistent.  Once we get past all of the sports conflicts, things should improve a bit, I would think.

Plus, it's a new night, and I know for myself the change in day is not great for my schedule.  It might take a few weeks for people to adjust to the new night.

Edited October 24, 2016 by MysteryGuest

[SueB]

Thursday is still the great white whale for broadcast TV.  SPN did 25% better than last year.  Pedowitz has got to be pleased.

[auntvi]

Stupid question: is it a big deal that J2 were invited to dinner with Roth? Like good for their careers?

[Wynne88]

Was there ever any information about how Episode 12-2 did Live + 3 (or any other measure of the impact that those who watched via DVR had on the ratings)?

[catrox14]

3 minutes ago, Wynne88 said:

Was there ever any information about how Episode 12-2 did Live + 3 (or any other measure of the impact that those who watched via DVR had on the ratings)?

I've checked the outlets I know of TVbytheNumbers and SpoilerTV and nothing. They had the ratings  but SPN didn't make it in the top 25 at Spoiler TV so I don't know where they landed. It's really strange.

[SueB]

14 hours ago, auntvi said:

Stupid question: is it a big deal that J2 were invited to dinner with Roth? Like good for their careers?

Not necessarily good for their careers but a recognition of their work (on the occasion of their 250th episode) by the studio head is nice.  Dude apparently came out to their trailer at MIDNIGHT because they were working.  That's a nice gesture from someone who is a mover and shaker in Hollywood.