S31: Spoilers

[LadyChatts]

If the boot list is correct, that's a pretty strong F3. I am surprised either Spencer or Jeremy wasn't voted out at F4. At least one of them wouldn't have immunity. Though Kelley was a strong player too. A good final 4, IMO. All deserving of those spots.

Still trying to figure out if Spencer can pull out a win!

 

I think Jeremy has it locked up at the final 3.  My guess is either Tasha and maybe Kimmi decide to turn on the girls alliance once Keith is gone.  Kass made it sound like Tasha was the one who ruined the chance for it; however, I wasn't entirely sure if Kass was hinting at down the road (since this was said in one of her boot interviews) or if Tasha wasn't game for it while she was still in the game.  Since castoffs are known for intentionally and unintentionally letting things slip in interviews, I'm going with the former.  Especially since Kass hates Tasha.  Kimmi may realize that after the Keith boot Tasha has no interest in moving forward with the girls; so risk a split vote and go to rocks, or have Abi flip to the side of numbers and get voted out...maybe Kimmi flips back.  I'm thinking Wentworth plays her idol or has immunity when Kimmi is supposed to go.  She's one of the 7 left that I feel would have a really good shot at winning, and I don't believe someone like Jeremy would want to risk sitting next to her.  I think Jeremy/Spencer have the numbers at the final 4, and they aren't turning on each other, and Tasha isn't turning on them.  

 

I believe Jeremy has some things going for him that will lead to his win: he can play the sympathy card about Val being pregnant, reveal to them that she told him at the family visit he was having a boy, and now he will be a father of 3; numerous castaways have said he is running the game-I ran across an interview with Stephen I hadn't read yet, and he said watching back he didn't realize just how good a job Jeremy was doing at calling the shots without making it obvious he was calling the shots; he went at least until the final 8 without having any votes cast against him despite being a huge threat and being called out for running the show, so he can show loyalty (and maybe he'll go all the way without having votes cast against him); he can also say he risked playing an idol for an ally that everyone was gunning for and that could have put the target on him, since he did go against one group of allies to save another.  But in that case, the person who went home was not in his core alliance.  And he can say how he was manipulating and running things from day one.  

 

If Tasha goes with the two guys to the end, I believe she has no shot.  She's better off sticking with the girls and saying that she wasn't looking for 2nd or 3rd, she was looking to win and went with the best option for that.  Spencer, I don't know.  He's made moves in this game, but have they been enough?  Really the only thing he's really done has been to orchestrate the Stephen blindside.  Of course he could always argue that despite being gunned for at numerous TC, he managed to slip through.  But then again, Abi can make that same argument.

[Nashville]

Boot list (close to order)

Kass

Savage (idoled out)

Kelly Wiglesworth

Ciera (idoled out)

Stephen

Joe (fv)

Keith (fv)

Abi (fv)

Kimmi (fv)

Kelley Wentworth (fv)

(FINAL 3)

Tasha (fv)

Spencer (fv)

Jeremy (fv)

 

According to the person who posted this, the final 3 and the remaining boots at the final 6 were correct.  However, they had the loved ones visit starting at the final 6, and it began two boots earlier.  It seems likely that the order is going to hold up, or at the very least that Keith is next.  There's 2 idols in the mix still (Kelley and Jeremy).  The boot list has held up, with the exception of Stephen and Savage's boots being switched.

 

I could fairly easily see this vote order:

• Keith: all-girl's alliance (AGA) holds together long enough for a vote, Jeremy wins immunity (or Spencer wins immunity and Tasha objects to the AGA targeting Jeremy), Keith sent home as strongest threat.  Leaves Kelley / Kimmi / Tasha / Abi vs. Jeremy / Spencer.
• Abi: One of the guys wins immunity, Abi starts going off the rails again, and the remainder of the AGA feels their 4-to-2 voting advantage is strong enough to get a little peace around camp.  Leaves Kelley / Kimmi / Tasha vs. Jeremy / Spencer.
• Kimmi: Spencer wins immunity and Jeremy idols out, or Jeremy wins immunity and idols Spencer out - PLUS Kelley idols out as well, and Kimmi goes home as the only other person to catch a vote.  Also possibility of a Tasha flip at this point.  My nominee for "confusing" Tribal council.  Leaves either Kelley / Tasha vs. Jeremy / Spencer, or Jeremy / Spencer / Tasha vs. Kelley.
• Kelley: Kelley doesn't win immunity, and catches the bullet she dodged last TC. 
• Leaves Jeremy / Spencer / Tasha F3.

 

One thing I've been disappointed about in regards to idols this season, is that since the idols are supposed to be different I was hoping there might be more chaos in playing them at TC.  Everyone who has an idol has done a good job keeping it under wraps, and I don't know if Jeff ever revealed during the show that they would be different (I know he said it in an interview).  Maybe that will come in future season.

 

One thing which has kinda surprised me this season: with the exception of Kelley and Jeremy (the only people to have actually found idols), none of the other players know anything is different about the idols this year - unless J or K told someone and Production chose not to air it.

[Jextella]

I think there is a slightly different "ethos" this season about what constitutes a winner -- or perhaps there is a more unified ethos than in other seasons.  I would think this of all seasons would be the worst one to drag a goat along.  I think it would get the least respect from the jurors.  While it hasn't been hammered to death, there is a sense of honor and pride among these folks -- they feel they are the best, are playing with the best, and they want the best to go to the end and win.  I mean, someone like Savage is only going to vote for someone whose game he admires, right?  Didn't he say that the winner is a great "ambassador"?  That says it all.  For all of the remaining Survivors (except maybe Keith and Abi) their sense of identity and worth as a Survivor is to some degree tied up in who wins.

 

Agreed.  I posted earlier that for the weaker players to get booted before the stronger players is contrary to past seasons and that there could be a spirit amid second chance players of going to the end with actual players.

 

As the numbers wind down, I think that sentiment is true to some degree but partly because Jeremy's and Spencer's backs are up against a wall.

 

It will be interesting to see how it is that the girls alliance doesn't work.  It should but it doesn't.  And, Kelley should be the top tartget in girls going home but Abi and Kimmi go before her. 

 

Based on the boot list, it seems Jeremy, Tasha, and Spencer have to stick together.  Tasha should have stuck with the girls alliance and then taken Kelley out prior to Final 3. She would have won up against Kimmi and Abi.

 

It would kill me if the second bootlist is accurate and Spencer doesn't make f3 :(

[Zuleikha]

Spencer, I don't know.  He's made moves in this game, but have they been enough?  Really the only thing he's really done has been to orchestrate the Stephen blindside.

And that doesn't seem so much like a move to win at this point but rather as a move to be Jeremy's undisputed #2. Spencer has a reputation for strategic, rational play but he seems like more of an emotional player to me. I do think it's likely he'll have "good at challenges" to claim at FTC, though. Someone who's not Joe is going to be winning immunity from here on out, and it seems likely that Spencer will be that someone for a good amount of them.

[Skeeter22]

Stephen said in an interview that Tasha told him she wanted to go to the final 3 with Jeremy. He told her Jeremy would win and she didn't care. Either she's overestimated her own chances or she's the Woo of the season. She did vote for him over Tony.

So far Spencer hasn't done anything but replace Stephen in the broalliance. It's not like voting out Stephen was a difficult move. The girls were ready to make a move against anyone, they just needed the votes. I'm not sure Spencer could convincingly argue ownership of that move to a jury that includes Kelley Wentworth.

[Oscirus]

It was revealed in the idol clues. I assume everybody knows now that both Kelley and Jeremy have played one.

 

As for the crazy tribal, my guess is that at f6 either Jeremy or Spencer wins immunity. HII goes on the loser, Kelley plays her HII and none of the votes count. Second time around, we have another tie causing them to either come up with new rules on the spot, either that or the only person without an idol/votes on them goes home in that scenario.

Edited December 6, 2015 by Oscirus

[Nashville]

It was revealed in the idol clues. I assume everybody knows now that both Kelley and Jeremy have played one.

 

Who else saw the clues?  I don't recall either Kelley or Jeremy sharing their clues with anyone else.

[Oscirus]

They didn't have to see the clues, I assume they saw the idols when they were being played.

[gator12]

Boot list (close to order)

Kass

Savage (idoled out)

Kelly Wiglesworth

Ciera (idoled out)

Stephen

Joe (fv)

Keith (fv)

Abi (fv)

Kimmi (fv)

Kelley Wentworth (fv)

(FINAL 3)

Tasha (fv)

Spencer (fv)

Jeremy (fv)

 

According to the person who posted this, the final 3 and the remaining boots at the final 6 were correct.  However, they had the loved ones visit starting at the final 6, and it began two boots earlier.  It seems likely that the order is going to hold up, or at the very least that Keith is next.  There's 2 idols in the mix still (Kelley and Jeremy).  The boot list has held up, with the exception of Stephen and Savage's boots being switched.

Thank you

[cooksdelight]

Pinning this at the top so you don't have to keep searching and copying:

Boot list (close to order)

Kass

Savage (idoled out)

Kelly Wiglesworth

Ciera (idoled out)

Stephen

Joe (fv)

Keith (fv)

Abi (fv)

Kimmi (fv)

Kelley Wentworth (fv)

(FINAL 3)

Tasha (fv)

Spencer (fv)

Jeremy (fv)

According to the person who posted this, the final 3 and the remaining boots at the final 6 were correct. However, they had the loved ones visit starting at the final 6, and it began two boots earlier. It seems likely that the order is going to hold up, or at the very least that Keith is next. There's 2 idols in the mix still (Kelley and Jeremy). The boot list has held up, with the exception of Stephen and Savage's boots being switched.

[Jextella]

Stephen said in an interview that Tasha told him she wanted to go to the final 3 with Jeremy. He told her Jeremy would win and she didn't care. Either she's overestimated her own chances or she's the Woo of the season. She did vote for him over Tony.

So far Spencer hasn't done anything but replace Stephen in the broalliance. It's not like voting out Stephen was a difficult move. The girls were ready to make a move against anyone, they just needed the votes. I'm not sure Spencer could convincingly argue ownership of that move to a jury that includes Kelley Wentworth.

 

Correct me where I'm wrong.  Seems Fishback orchestrated just about every move he and Jeremy were in on. 

 

I like Jeremy but at this juncture, I don't think he's shown himself to be the most deserving. 

Edited December 6, 2015 by Jextella

[BK1978]

Correct me where I'm wrong.  Seems Fishback orchestrated just about every move he and Jeremy were in on. 

 

I like Jeremy but at this juncture, I don't think he's shown himself to be the most deserving.  I'd give that to many players before I' give it to him. 

 

Jeremy just comes across as very likable and maybe that is why he wins if he does indeed end up winning.  I mean I agree with you he has not done much to pin his hat on but the guy is charming and sometimes that is enough.

[Nashville]

They didn't have to see the clues, I assume they saw the idols when they were being played.

 

Guess the lack of clarity was my mistake.  I wasn't referring to any intrinsic difference in the idols themselves, or the manner in which they are played.  I was thinking in terms of the manner in which they are acquired, which has been the major change-up with HIIs this season.  Unless either Kelley or Jeremy has filled somebody else in, I expect everybody else in camp thinks they found them the old-fashioned way of hunting in/around camp (which does apply to Kelley's second idol).  So far as we've been shown, nobody else has a clue about the concealment-in-challenges option.

[Oscirus]

Correct me where I'm wrong.  Seems Fishback orchestrated just about every move he and Jeremy were in on. 

 

I like Jeremy but at this juncture, I don't think he's shown himself to be the most deserving.  I'd give that to many players before I' give it to him. 

Stephen spent most of his time going after Joe and he initiated the Kelly ouster.

Off the top of my head, Jeremy formed the brolliance, blindsided Monica ( over Stephen's objections might I add),  saved Stephen on multiple occasions,  and idoled out Ciera.   That's not even mentioning the fact that he's avoided being targeted despite being outted as one of the heads of the broliance. But hey, if you want to punish Jeremy for not having a flashy enough resume, be my guest.

[Oscirus]

Guess the lack of clarity was my mistake.  I wasn't referring to any intrinsic difference in the idols themselves, or the manner in which they are played.  I was thinking in terms of the manner in which they are acquired, which has been the major change-up with HIIs this season.  Unless either Kelley or Jeremy has filled somebody else in, I expect everybody else in camp thinks they found them the old-fashioned way of hunting in/around camp (which does apply to Kelley's second idol).  So far as we've been shown, nobody else has a clue about the concealment-in-challenges option.

 

True, but other then Kelley's last idol, the only way they could even initiate the idol being hidden is to hunt for the clue which Is planted in the same way as the idols used to be. The only real difference this season is that there's a greater element of danger in getting the idol once you have the clue.

[Nashville]

True, but other then Kelley's last idol, the only way they could even initiate the idol being hidden is to hunt for the clue which Is planted in the same way as the idols used to be. The only real difference this season is that there's a greater element of danger in getting the idol once you have the clue.

Right. Thing is, though, nobody has their radar up during challenges for atypical (I.e. Idol-gathering) activity except those in the game who already know HIIs are sometimes found during challenges. And those number exactly two at present.

[Sarahsmile416]

Stephen spent most of his time going after Joe and he initiated the Kelly ouster.

Off the top of my head, Jeremy formed the brolliance, blindsided Monica ( over Stephen's objections might I add), saved Stephen on multiple occasions, and idoled out Ciera. That's not even mentioning the fact that he's avoided being targeted despite being outted as one of the heads of the broliance. But hey, if you want to punish Jeremy for not having a flashy enough resume, be my guest.

Jeremy is a good player, no doubt. Although, I tend to credit (and I hate using this word with him) Savage with the bro-lliance as it started with them. The Monica blindside was Kimmie's...and probably the only thing she could put on her resume. The last two moves I definitely agree with you on. I am still flummoxed why his name hasn't even been floated out there.

Honestly though, I think several people out there are playing good games, though I don't know if anyone is playing a great game, though MMV.

[Zuleikha]

Jeremy just comes across as very likable and maybe that is why he wins if he does indeed end up winning.  I mean I agree with you he has not done much to pin his hat on but the guy is charming and sometimes that is enough.

I agree. I think Jeremy's game is like Sandra's in that it is very difficult to accurately portray on TV because its biggest strength is the social element. People seem to really like Jeremy and really want to work with him, even when it should be obvious that there are easier-to-beat-at-the-end choices. People bring him information and keep him in the loop, again even when it seems like they shouldn't try to include him (like in the Fishbach vote).

 

And that likability is why I think it's such poor gameplaying for Spencer to run back to him and chart an f3 path that includes Jeremy at the end. When someone is likable enough, it doesn't really matter whether they played an objectively better game or not in terms of controlling the vote, winning challenges, or orchestrating flashy blindsides. People want to feel good about who they vote for a winner, and Jeremy's done more than enough to justify giving him the win. It seems likely that he won't even have to backstab anyone to get to the end since he's only formally aligned with Spencer and Tasha.

Edited December 6, 2015 by Zuleikha

[Jextella]

Jeremy just comes across as very likable and maybe that is why he wins if he does indeed end up winning.  I mean I agree with you he has not done much to pin his hat on but the guy is charming and sometimes that is enough.

 

Totally agree. I think the absolute right people go to F4.  They've all hustled and played and quite honestly, I think it's a bit of a toss up as to who should win.

 

The thing about Jeremy's strategy of shielding himslf is that I don't think it's any different from that of a goat.  It's basically hiding behind someone else.  Same dealio in my book.  And, I may be the only person in the universe who thinks this way....but I don't really have a problem with goats going to the end.  They ARE playing.  Just not overtly.  And, many times, people don't have a choice but to lay low. 

 

I'm trying to figure out who "should" win of the F3 being predicted.  I'm on the fence between Spencer and Jeremy.  Each has managed to lay the appropriate amount of low and each has come through in a pinch when needed.  I think Spencer has had many more hurdles to get through than Jeremy through no fault of his own (mostly the multiple merge situations), and so I give him the slight edge.   Jeremy is, however, super personable and has a young family to plan for. 

 

I immediately discount Tasha, but I'm not sure why.  She's done her share of hustling.  I need to create a spread sheet of pros and cons to track it all as I can't remember some of the details.

[Vicky8675309]

I don't think someone having kids should factor into the game and neither should their "need" or "financial" status factor into the game. Survivor is not a charity! I'm ok with Jeremy winning but not because he has kids or his wife is pregnant. Those are non-factors imo.

[SomebodysName]

There can be arguments made that Spencer's strategic game is better than Jeremy's. However, Jeremy has the best social game out of everyone. A lot of the times during final tribal council, social game beats out strategic game. Fellow castaways love Jeremy. It is very hard for a juror to vote for the castaway who played the best game if they don't like the castaway as much as the person they are sitting next to. Plus playing the best game is different for different people. If playing the best game means playing the best social game, then Jeremy wins. It's been shown that Spencer struggles connecting with people emotionally, while Jeremy has people coming up to him to talk game left and right. There's been a number of interviews where castaways have said they felt close with Jeremy and connected with him. It's hard to look past that.

Plus, I don't get why people think Spencer's strategic game is better than Jeremy's. Spencer getting rid of Stephen doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It also seems to be a move that pushed him to a corner. I guess it's a big move, but Jeremy also has the big move where can say he got rid of Ciera. Getting rid of Ciera benefitted Jeremy's game more than getting rid of Stephen benefitted Spencer's. Other than those moves, Jeremy and Spencer have made similar vote decisions post-merge, but Jeremy has been in the loop more, while Spencer has mostly been following the majority. Pre-merge, Spencer wasn't even on the right side of the vote when Monica got voted out. Also, I can also easily see Kass at Ponderosa blab to everyone else about how she saved Spencer from getting blindsided right before the merge. Ciera, Savage, Abi, and Wiglesworth can confirm that story.

Edited December 7, 2015 by SomebodysName

[azshadowwalker]

Nothing wrong with being on the other side of the vote if you advance. In fact, it takes a whole lot of work for that to be the case multiple times.

[Zuleikha]

Nothing wrong with being on the other side of the vote if you advance.

But it does make it harder to make the case that you're the strategic mastermind rather than the pawn or floater.

[Jextella]

This is like a workplace scenario. One employee may do the work to perfection and another only 80% of the way, but if the former isn't personable and engaging, the 80%-er is who will come out on top.

 

Having said that, I think there is room in the game of Survivor for someone to make his/her case that helps a less personabe player trump a more personable player.  I think Spencer has a list of acomplishments he can refer to...assuming he can identify and articulate them.  More than Jeremy, in fact. 

 

But it will take a lot.   Going back to Ciera, she called it mid-way in the jury time frame.  There must be more going on in support of Jeremy than what we are seeing. I read up on the season on Wikipedia.  Other than using his idol to save Fishback, Jeremy's name doesn't pop up other than as a member of the Tasha, Fishback, and Jeremy trio.  I guess that counts for something.  So much for temporary voting blocks.  That alliance has been in place since the beginning and its still going strong.  Perhaps that is another feather in Jeremy's cap.

 

Still on the fence, though.

[SomebodysName]

Yeah, I don't understand why there are people who think Spencer should win over Jeremy or are on the fence about this. Jeremy clearly has the better social game than Spencer. He's better at building relationships and emotionally connecting with people. Jeremy also has been in the loop and has had more control over the game than Spencer. People are feeding Jeremy info and are going to Jeremy to talk game. Spencer's big move was taking out Stephen while Jeremy's was taking out Ciera. I think Jeremy taking out Ciera made more sense compared to Spencer taking out Stephen. Jeremy was on the right side of the vote when Monica was voted out while Spencer was out of the loop. Spencer was powerless to save Kass and just stuck with the group, while Jeremy had influence over the big alliance. Jeremy has been called out as someone who wins if he makes it to the end. What has Spencer done in this game to deserve to win over Jeremy? Jeremy wins if jury votes for who has the best social game or who is more popular on the island. Jeremy's strategic game in my opinion is better than Spencer's as well. He's had a more concrete strategy of keeping around big targets and people he can trust and has had more control over his game. Spencer has even admitted himself that he's lucky to even be the spot he is in. Kass had save him from being blindsided before the merge.

[Special K]

I think both Jeremy and Spencer are playing great games.  I would say that Jeremy's is more elegant and subtle and Spencer's is a bit clumsier and seat-of-the-pants.  I think it's a confidence and maturity issue, or just personality type.

 

I'd be happy with either one winning.  While I have a slight preference for a Jeremy win, because I admire subtlety and smoothness and patience,  Spencer has shown a remarkable ability to learn, adapt, and grow, which is rare  in life and, as we're seeing in the second-chance season, on Survivor, too.

[Hanahope]

On thing that I think favor Jeremy/Spencer over Tasha is that we've heard quite a bit about J/S's family/off the island life, and not quite as much from Tasha.  Then, between J and S, I think J wins out, all other things being equal, as I think some people may favor wife/new baby a bit more over girlfriend, to the extent they consider which person may 'deserve' the money more, or 'made the most of their second chance.'

[Zuleikha]

He's had a more concrete strategy of keeping around big targets and people he can trust and has had more control over his game.

Yeah, Jeremy has a very coherent narrative that he can say about his game strategy, and one that demonstrates learning from his first game. Jeremy's struggling a bit now (because of Spencer!), but Jeremy also still has a second idol to pull out that is likely key to how he takes back control of the game. When he's at FTC, he's going to be sitting next to two people he arguably brought there. 

 

Not that it matters. People don't really vote for who makes the best argument at FTC. 

[Vicky8675309]

It would be great if both Jeremy and Spencer get the same number of votes and they both win;-)

[Nashville]

I think both Jeremy and Spencer are playing great games.  I would say that Jeremy's is more elegant and subtle and Spencer's is a bit clumsier and seat-of-the-pants.  I think it's a confidence and maturity issue, or just personality type.

 

I think a lot of it may be simple preconceived notions other players had of what kind of gameplay to expect from the two:

• People expected Spencer's game to be heavily weighted toward the strategic - he was a Brain in his previous performance, after all, and his play that season was almost purely strategic. They are therefore on the lookout for anything strategic coming from Spence and they're wary of it, so Spence has to work that much harder - and a machete, functionally speaking, is by definition "clumsier" than a scalpel.
• In the same vein, people expected Jeremy's game to be heavily weighted toward the physical; Jeremy (almost certainly by choice) has to date demonstrated exactly zero threat potential in this respect, however, so other players appear lulled into no longer seeing him as a potential threat. It's almost as if many don't see Jeremy as having the capacity to shift his "strong game" from physical to strategic. If that's the case, Jeremy's idol play for Stephen almost certainly bolsters this view, as ON THE SURFACE it looks like a foolish waste of an idol - which may lead them to dismiss the " oh yeah, Ciera went out on that vote, didn't she...?" as an unintended consequence. If so, the more fool them - which is very easy for me to say from the comfort of my chair.

Jeremy isn't the player I necessarily want to win; given current circumstances, however, Jeremy is the player I expect to win.

[phlebas]

Not that it matters. People don't really vote for who makes the best argument at FTC. 

 

Amanda Kimmel for you on Line 2.

[Zuleikha]

Ha, poor Amanda. She was exceptionally terrible at Final Tribal Council. I don't think that's why she lost to Parvati, though, and I'm not convinced it's why she lost to Todd either. I do think it's why she lost to Courtney, though!

[SomebodysName]

I think a lot of it may be simple preconceived notions other players had of what kind of gameplay to expect from the two:

• People expected Spencer's game to be heavily weighted toward the strategic - he was a Brain in his previous performance, after all, and his play that season was almost purely strategic. They are therefore on the lookout for anything strategic coming from Spence and they're wary of it, so Spence has to work that much harder - and a machete, functionally speaking, is by definition "clumsier" than a scalpel.
• In the same vein, people expected Jeremy's game to be heavily weighted toward the physical; Jeremy (almost certainly by choice) has to date demonstrated exactly zero threat potential in this respect, however, so other players appear lulled into no longer seeing him as a potential threat. It's almost as if many don't see Jeremy as having the capacity to shift his "strong game" from physical to strategic. If that's the case, Jeremy's idol play for Stephen almost certainly bolsters this view, as ON THE SURFACE it looks like a foolish waste of an idol - which may lead them to dismiss the " oh yeah, Ciera went out on that vote, didn't she...?" as an unintended consequence. If so, the more fool them - which is very easy for me to say from the comfort of my chair.

Jeremy isn't the player I necessarily want to win; given current circumstances, however, Jeremy is the player I expect to win.

Was Jeremy's idol play really that bad? It was played successfully. I thought it was a better than average play. Getting rid of Ciera does help Jeremy's game since she has obviously been against him. The move is flashy enough to be considered a big move. Keeping Stephen around arguably bought Jeremy three days because it allowed Jeremy to keep a big target around since Stephen had the advantage. The move also has some appeal to the old schoolers. It shows that Jeremy works hard to protect those who he is loyal to. The move makes Jeremy seem less selfish and more of a good guy.

At least, Jeremy's idol play seemed like a less foolish move than Spencer getting rid of Stephen because Stephen actually trusted Spencer, and the move pushed Spencer right back into Jeremy's corner. It kind of looks good on Jeremy's part that he was able to replace his fallen ally, Stephen, with Spencer. I know it's not as simple as that. However, it's very easy for Jeremy to paint that narrative if he and Spencer take each other to the final 3. The show is also foreshadowing Jeremy using his idol on Spencer. If that happens, then it really does look like Spencer replaced Stephen as one Jeremy's trusted minions.

[LadyChatts]

Ha, poor Amanda. She was exceptionally terrible at Final Tribal Council. I don't think that's why she lost to Parvati, though, and I'm not convinced it's why she lost to Todd either. I do think it's why she lost to Courtney, though!

Heh, I remember that the China finale came just a few days after they got back from filming Micronesia.  Cirie said after the fact no one could believe that Amanda did as horribly in her China FTC as she did in Micronesia.  Parvati was winning; the only real wild card was Eliza (I think) that maybe could have been persuaded by a decent speech.  But Eliza called Amanda out for being fake, and Parvati had way more on her resume to gloat about.

[Eolivet]

To me, Spencer is the living embodiment of how the "strategic player" is nothing without a social game. He's managed not to be voted off, but from all indications has failed to make any personal relationships with people who would lay their game lives on the line for him. Kelley telegraphed how useless he is to her with her reward picks, Abi's loyalty can be determined by a coin flip depending on her mood, Keith is so out of the loop, he actually voted for Tasha, and the remaining players (Kimmi and Tasha) appear to be strong Jeremy allies. One of the strongest indications of this to me is actually that Spencer, who played a season with Tasha, is so far behind Jeremy in Tasha's esteem that Spencer actually considered voting Tasha out a couple weeks ago.

 

To me, he will always be the brainy engine behind a social gamer who will edge him out every time because he's just not as likable (or a kinder, gentler, more likable Stephen Fischbach). I don't think Spencer would know what to do with the harem that Boston Rob received or know how to draw in a solid #2 ally and keep him close and loyal, but just one step behind you, like Tyson did with Gervase. He's not a leader, he doesn't have natural chemistry with people (except with a TV audience. He'd have won American Idol many times over by now) and he's never going to shake his reputation for being sneaky.

 

I feel like his plan must be to be loyal and win more challenges than Jeremy and hope there are people who subscribe to the "A for effort" mentality. But if Jeremy actually does pull out an idol to save Spencer, just hand Jeremy the check right then. That's game, set and match.

[Oholibamah]

To me, Spencer is the living embodiment of how the "strategic player" is nothing without a social game. He's managed not to be voted off, but from all indications has failed to make any personal relationships with people who would lay their game lives on the line for him. Kelley telegraphed how useless he is to her with her reward picks, Abi's loyalty can be determined by a coin flip depending on her mood, Keith is so out of the loop, he actually voted for Tasha, and the remaining players (Kimmi and Tasha) appear to be strong Jeremy allies. One of the strongest indications of this to me is actually that Spencer, who played a season with Tasha, is so far behind Jeremy in Tasha's esteem that Spencer actually considered voting Tasha out a couple weeks ago.

To me, he will always be the brainy engine behind a social gamer who will edge him out every time because he's just not as likable (or a kinder, gentler, more likable Stephen Fischbach). I don't think Spencer would know what to do with the harem that Boston Rob received or know how to draw in a solid #2 ally and keep him close and loyal, but just one step behind you, like Tyson did with Gervase. He's not a leader, he doesn't have natural chemistry with people (except with a TV audience. He'd have won American Idol many times over by now) and he's never going to shake his reputation for being sneaky.

I feel like his plan must be to be loyal and win more challenges than Jeremy and hope there are people who subscribe to the "A for effort" mentality. But if Jeremy actually does pull out an idol to save Spencer, just hand Jeremy the check right then. That's game, set and match.

I got the sense that Spencer did a decent job running the (shortlived) alliance of Tasha, Jeremiah, Morgan, Sarah and Kass before she flipped. If reports are to be believed, Tasha/Sarah were outplayed by Jefra/Trish leading to Kass flipping.

I think Spencer plays a strong underdog game but misplays/gets complacent when he perceives he has power (the Garrett vote, losing Kass). He's good at hussling but seems to forget that egos still need to be stroked even if he's calling the shots for the moment.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Oholibamah

[Nashville]

Was Jeremy's idol play really that bad?

Absolutely not - which is why I stuck in the "ON THE SURFACE" qualification. Hmmm... maybe I should've bolded it as well. But I digress.... :)

My point was this:

• Immediate perception of Jeremy was in terms of him being a physical threat - but his physical game has been minimal so far. Nobody even mentions the possibility any more; the last few mentions I've heard of physical threats were all focused on Joe, Keith, and Spence, in that order. No mention of Jeremy, unless I was making a sandwich at the time and missed it.
• Jeremy appears to be playing close to the ultimate social game so far. I don't recall anybody at all mentioning having any kind of social issue with J - which in and of itself should be a great big freakin' red flag - but so far, nothing.

So - if they've dismissed Jeremy's physical game, and they're not discussing his physical game, WHY AREN'T THEY EYEBALLING HIS STRATEGIC GAME!?!?!?. Is Jeremy so totally UTR they think he's around to just sit on the beach, shovel down rice, and play mediocre in comps?

Instead, though, Jeremy's strategic game seems to get the same pass as his social and strategic. He burns an idol for an ally - and the ally gets targeted for being a strategic threat, everybody seems content to chuckle "Heh, heh, guess THAT was a waste of an idol", and... what else? Nothing, that's what. No blowback from what was arguably one of the more strategically significant moves in the game to date. No examination into the strategic implications, other than "Well, Jeremy said he did it to protect Stephen as someone he could trust - but Stephen's gone now, so THAT doesn't matter any more...."

It's like the other players have blinders on when it comes to critically analyzing Jeremy's game.. Do they think the jock fireman is incapable of strategic gameplay? Did Jeremy borrow some mist from BB Dan? I don't have a clue. The only drawback I see for Jeremy to date is he's SO far UTR, he might have his hands full come FTC to convince the Jury to take off the blinders, rub the DanDust from their eyes, and appreciate he was playing the game, too.

[SomebodysName]

Absolutely not - which is why I stuck in the "ON THE SURFACE" qualification. Hmmm... maybe I should've bolded it as well. But I digress.... :)

My point was this:

• Immediate perception of Jeremy was in terms of him being a physical threat - but his physical game has been minimal so far. Nobody even mentions the possibility any more; the last few mentions I've heard of physical threats were all focused on Joe, Keith, and Spence, in that order. No mention of Jeremy, unless I was making a sandwich at the time and missed it.
• Jeremy appears to be playing close to the ultimate social game so far. I don't recall anybody at all mentioning having any kind of social issue with J - which in and of itself should be a great big freakin' red flag - but so far, nothing.

So - if they've dismissed Jeremy's physical game, and they're not discussing his physical game, WHY AREN'T THEY EYEBALLING HIS STRATEGIC GAME!?!?!?. Is Jeremy so totally UTR they think he's around to just sit on the beach, shovel down rice, and play mediocre in comps?

Instead, though, Jeremy's strategic game seems to get the same pass as his social and strategic. He burns an idol for an ally - and the ally gets targeted for being a strategic threat, everybody seems content to chuckle "Heh, heh, guess THAT was a waste of an idol", and... what else? Nothing, that's what. No blowback from what was arguably one of the more strategically significant moves in the game to date. No examination into the strategic implications, other than "Well, Jeremy said he did it to protect Stephen as someone he could trust - but Stephen's gone now, so THAT doesn't matter any more...."

It's like the other players have blinders on when it comes to critically analyzing Jeremy's game.. Do they think the jock fireman is incapable of strategic gameplay? Did Jeremy borrow some mist from BB Dan? I don't have a clue. The only drawback I see for Jeremy to date is he's SO far UTR, he might have his hands full come FTC to convince the Jury to take off the blinders, rub the DanDust from their eyes, and appreciate he was playing the game, too.

Haha, I misinterpreted your comment. The show has implied that other castaways are aware that they shouldn't take Jeremy to the end. Ciera has mentioned it, and Spencer has mentioned it, but Jeremy has just been hiding behind better targets. That's not because Jeremy is a goat. In fact, Jeremy can probably beat most, if not all of these bigger targets at FTC. There's just always been better candidates to be voted out than Jeremy. Kass got voted out over Jeremy because it was early in the merge, and people didn't trust Kass. Savage got voted out over Jeremy because the women thought they'd have a better chance at working with Jeremy. Wiglesworth got voted out over Jeremy since Wiglesworth was close to Joe, and people were focused on getting out Joe because they didn't want him to go on an immunity run. Stephen got voted out over Jeremy because people were worried about the advantage. At least, I'm assuming they got rid of Stephen because of the advantage. (Did Spencer ever explain why he targeted Stephen over Jeremy?) The castaways voted out Joe over Jeremy because they were worried about Joe going on an immunity run.

At final 7, it looks like the majority women's alliance votes out Keith over Jeremy because they are worried about Keith going on an immunity run. At final 6, I'm thinking the women split the vote, and Tasha jumps over to the other side to vote out Abi in a 3-2-1 vote. It's too risky for Spencer to vote out Jeremy if he knows there's a women's alliance coming after him next. Jeremy and Wentworth then both play their idols at final 5, and Kimmi gets voted out.

Jeremy's social game is probably having a much bigger influence on the game than people realize. Joe and Kelly Wiglesworth have both said in exit interviews that they felt close to Jeremy. Wiglesworth bonded with Jeremy and said she was surprised he voted her out (she had no intentions of taking him to the end though). Savage and Stephen are clearly close to Jeremy. According to Stephen's blog, Tasha wanted to go to final 3 with Jeremy and didn't care that she probably couldn't beat him. I wouldn't be surprised if all the remaining contestents had some sort of bond with Jeremy. According to Stephen's blog, Jeremy was also close to Wentworth and Keith. Unfortunately for TV purposes, it is really hard to show someone having a strong social game. That kind of thing is too time consuming. Strategy is so much easier to portray, and fans tend to talk about a player's strategical game rather than their social game. The show is trying to demonstrate that Jeremy has a strong social game because we see castaways come up to Jeremy to talk strategy throughout the entire season.

[Zuleikha]

Yeah, Jeremy's not under the radar. Any time a conversation has been shown about who's running the game and who a player doesn't want to go to FTC with, it's Jeremy. Jeremy's not being targeted because his social game is that good, not because people think they can beat him at the end.

 

To me, Spencer is the living embodiment of how the "strategic player" is nothing without a social game. He's managed not to be voted off, but from all indications has failed to make any personal relationships with people who would lay their game lives on the line for him.

I think Spencer has a decent-to-good social game. I don't like him, but people in the game clearly do. He's only been targeted twice, and Savage wasn't because Savage disliked Spencer but rather that he thought Spencer would be easy to get rid of. Jeremy, Stephen, and Tasha were willing to work with Spencer after Spencer betrayed them.

 

I think Spencer's more of a physical and social player than a strategic player, personally. I've yet to see him do anything that's actually strategic (maybe the Stephen boot... it seems emotional rather than strategic to me now, but Spencer hasn't had a chance to explain it). I just don't think Spencer's as good of a social player as Jeremy.

 

It's still so weird to me that Abi and Kimmi both go before Kelley. Kelley's unlikely to be immune both those times, and if I were Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha, Kelley would clearly be the most important person to get out at this stage of the game (given that Spencer and Tasha seem willing to go to f3 with Jeremy... if I were them, I'd be getting Jeremy out first).

[Jextella]

I think both Jeremy and Spencer are playing great games.  I would say that Jeremy's is more elegant and subtle and Spencer's is a bit clumsier and seat-of-the-pants.  I think it's a confidence and maturity issue, or just personality type.

 

I'd be happy with either one winning.  While I have a slight preference for a Jeremy win, because I admire subtlety and smoothness and patience,  Spencer has shown a remarkable ability to learn, adapt, and grow, which is rare  in life and, as we're seeing in the second-chance season, on Survivor, too.

 

 

You said in two paragraphs what I've been trying to say in 1000+ posts.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Jextella

[marys1000]

Keeiiiith!  Don't go!  Seriously I would so much rather see Keith stay than Abi or Kimmi or even Spencer or Tasha.  So sad. 

I will be sort of bored after he goes.  I will be bored at FTC without Wentworth, I would like to see her win now that Joe is gone. 

  I like Jeremy but hate sandbagging so I think I'd rather see Tasha win.  I'd be ok with Spencer. 

[RealityWatAConcept]

Gotta give Nashville some props here. So good it should be a spoiler all its own. A very simple, elegant script to explain the rest of the boot list. Occam's Razor and all I think you are on to something Nashville. Kudos.

 

I could fairly easily see this vote order:

• Keith: all-girl's alliance (AGA) holds together long enough for a vote, Jeremy wins immunity (or Spencer wins immunity and Tasha objects to the AGA targeting Jeremy), Keith sent home as strongest threat.  Leaves Kelley / Kimmi / Tasha / Abi vs. Jeremy / Spencer.
• Abi: One of the guys wins immunity, Abi starts going off the rails again, and the remainder of the AGA feels their 4-to-2 voting advantage is strong enough to get a little peace around camp.  Leaves Kelley / Kimmi / Tasha vs. Jeremy / Spencer.
• Kimmi: Spencer wins immunity and Jeremy idols out, or Jeremy wins immunity and idols Spencer out - PLUS Kelley idols out as well, and Kimmi goes home as the only other person to catch a vote.  Also possibility of a Tasha flip at this point.  My nominee for "confusing" Tribal council.  Leaves either Kelley / Tasha vs. Jeremy / Spencer, or Jeremy / Spencer / Tasha vs. Kelley.
• Kelley: Kelley doesn't win immunity, and catches the bullet she dodged last TC. 
• Leaves Jeremy / Spencer / Tasha F3.

[slowpoked]

(given that Spencer and Tasha seem willing to go to f3 with Jeremy... if I were them, I'd be getting Jeremy out first).

I don't know how Spencer does at F4, but if he wins immunity, I don't see any reason why he would bring Jeremy to F3, especially after that big spectacle he made of Woo being so dumb as to take Tony instead of Kass to the F2 back in Cagayan. If he does end up bringing Jeremy, then he's more Woo than he thinks he is. Spencer should know how much good of a game Jeremy plays, working so closely with him. I just don't see him as the type that wants to take the best people with him the to the Finals and let them duke it out there.

 

The only way I see Jeremy AND Spencer going to F3 together, at least through Spencer's POV,  is if it was totally out of Spencer's hands, like Jeremy winning immunity. 

[Oholibamah]

I suspect this week will be the "confusing" Tribal. At least I hope so, since it will otherwise end up lost in a jam-packed finale.

I'm guessing Spencer wins Immunity, Jeremy plays his Idol, causing Kelley to (rightfully) panic and play her Idol. All votes are negated. Everybody votes again for Tasha, Kimmi or Abi. Abi goes 4-2.

The hole here is explaining how Kimmi goes at 5. Idols will get rehidden and Kelley could win Immunity, but otherwise, it seems odd that she wouldn't be kept around as an east TC opponent.

[SomebodysName]

I don't know how Spencer does at F4, but if he wins immunity, I don't see any reason why he would bring Jeremy to F3, especially after that big spectacle he made of Woo being so dumb as to take Tony instead of Kass to the F2 back in Cagayan. If he does end up bringing Jeremy, then he's more Woo than he thinks he is. Spencer should know how much good of a game Jeremy plays, working so closely with him. I just don't see him as the type that wants to take the best people with him the to the Finals and let them duke it out there.

The only way I see Jeremy AND Spencer going to F3 together, at least through Spencer's POV, is if it was totally out of Spencer's hands, like Jeremy winning immunity.

At final 4, Spencer can vote with Wentworth to vote out Jeremy, but Jeremy and Tasha try to vote out Wentworth, making it a 2-2 tie. Jeremy and Wentworth then go into a fire making challenge, and Jeremy wins.

There's still the possibility that Spencer would vote out Wentworth over Jeremy. Wentworth is strong competition at FTC. Jeremy and Tasha may persuade Spencer to vote out Wentworth.

By the way, I don't see Tasha voting against Jeremy at all. According Fishbach's blog, Tasha wanted to take Jeremy to the final 3 even though she'll most likely lose against him. Jeremy and Tasha may be as tight of an alliance as Wentworth and Abi.

[slowpoked]

At final 4, Spencer can vote with Wentworth to vote out Jeremy, but Jeremy and Tasha try to vote out Wentworth, making it a 2-2 tie. Jeremy and Wentworth then go into a fire making challenge, and Jeremy wins.

I also thought of that possibility, but I figured, if that happened, it would have been leaked by now. I remember the fire-making challenge between Rodney and Carolyn was leaked out as part of the spoilers.

[anthonyd46]

I also thought of that possibility, but I figured, if that happened, it would have been leaked by now. I remember the fire-making challenge between Rodney and Carolyn was leaked out as part of the spoilers.

It wasn't leaked at all. 

[LadyChatts]

http://insidesurvivor.com/2015/12/survivor-second-chance-episode-13-press-photos/

 

Are we finally getting a non-endurance IC?

Edited December 9, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Jextella]

How are the final episodes going to air?  Are they on Wednesdays - or will the finale be on a Sunday?

[LadyChatts]

How are the final episodes going to air?  Are they on Wednesdays - or will the finale be on a Sunday?

 

Finale is next Wednesday.  6 people in the finale, so 3 TC plus the FTC.  Hopefully they don't get too pressed for time :/