2015 Awards Season Discussion

[Dejana]

Is it just me or are there way too many awards shows? Golden Globes, SAG awards, Critics... How do they even find outfits for them all or write different speeches? I wouldn't discount the effect of all the competing shows in pulling focus from the Oscars.

 

AMPAS probably thinks so and would love to go back to the days that the Oscars were the only game in town, but there's really nothing they can do about it. They moved up the ceremony a month in the early 2000s to stem the tide, but the others awards bodies/critics circles simply moved their ceremonies up. The actors and studios all love having additional chances for publicity and the more awards groups there are to impress, the more ads that are taken out in the trades and blogs of awards prognosticators, so they aren't going to call for a shortening of the season any time soon, either. It's essentially a vicious cycle. 

Edited January 16, 2015 by Dejana

[methodwriter85]

I admit I am biased though because I would like Keaton to win not really because I preferred his performance the most out of all the nominees, but mostly because I don't think he'll ever get this close again while I'm sure Redmayne will be back again and may even win next year for The Danish Girl.

 

 

      Eddie Redmayne is going to look fantastic as a woman.

[JBC344]

My only comfort of Eddie losing is that fact that he may win next year for The Danish Girl. 

[Rick Kitchen]

The Razzie Award nominations.  Transformers 4 leads the pack.

 

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/editorial/news/1932547/35th_annual_razzie_awards_nominations/

[thuganomics85]

 

They chose to nominate a slate of best picture nominees that had as its highest grossing film as of today at $60 million (Grand Budapest Hotel).

Well, that's going to be changing very soon, I suspect: apparently, American Sniper made over $30 million on just Friday alone.  I assume it would do OK since there is always an audience for modern war films (Lone Survivor, Act of Valor), but that's a hell of an Oscar bump.

[Dejana]

Well, that's going to be changing very soon, I suspect: apparently, American Sniper made over $30 million on just Friday alone.  I assume it would do OK since there is always an audience for modern war films (Lone Survivor, Act of Valor), but that's a hell of an Oscar bump.

 

American Sniper being huge in limited release ($3 million over three weekends in 4 theaters—3 of them being in NY/LA) was a big sign it would break out, once it was finally available everywhere, though it's overperforming even the wildest expectations. AMPAS is probably breathing an enormous sigh of relief that it made the cut.

 

I really think Cooper could challenge for the Best Actor win, or make it interesting. The movie was also "late" to the season and didn't hit all the precursors, but quite a few of his fellow actors (and Academy members) have raved about his performance, it's his third nomination in a row and he's getting great reviews in The Elephant Man on Broadway (last year McConaughey had True Detective during the voting window), which shows "range" and projects the image that he's all about the craft and not the red carpet. If the whisper campaign about the "real" Chris Kyle starts making the Oscar blogs, it's a sign that someone is very afraid... I'm only half joking; there have already been write-ups about the movie overly sanitizing the man, even compared to his own book, but they weren't necessarily on the radar of the awards sites.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Dejana

[Mrs. P.]

What is the deadline for Academy members to cast their votes?

[Dejana]

What is the deadline for Academy members to cast their votes?

 

Per Oscars.org, final voting this year runs from February 6 to February 17.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Dejana

[vb68]

 

The movie was also "late" to the season and didn't hit all the precursors

 

I agree it's certainly possible.   Clint Eastwood did it before with another very late movie, Million Dollar Baby.

[AshleyN]

I really think Cooper could challenge for the Best Actor win, or make it interesting. The movie was also "late" to the season and didn't hit all the precursors, but quite a few of his fellow actors (and Academy members) have raved about his performance, it's his third nomination in a row and he's getting great reviews in The Elephant Man on Broadway (last year McConaughey had True Detective during the voting window), which shows "range" and projects the image that he's all about the craft and not the red carpet.

I was actually just thinking about this myself. In addition to the points you made, Sniper is probably too divisive to overtake Boyhood in the Best Picture race (and I really have trouble imagining a third straight Best Picture/Best Director split), so Best Actor could be a chance to reward it in a big category.

 

He'd probably benefit from Keaton and Redmayne splitting SAG and BAFTA, which would indicate that support in general isn't consolidated around one frontrunner. If Keaton can take both than his momentum might be too strong to overcome (though I still wouldn't necessarily count Cooper out).

Edited January 17, 2015 by AshleyN

[mortonsalt]

I was actually just thinking about this myself. In addition to the points you made, Sniper is probably too divisive to overtake Boyhood in the Best Picture race (and I really have trouble imagining a third straight Best Picture/Best Director split), so Best Actor could be a chance to reward it in a big category.

 

He'd probably benefit from Keaton and Redmayne splitting SAG and BAFTA, which would indicate that support in general isn't consolidated around one frontrunner. If Keaton can take both than his momentum might be too strong to overcome (though I still wouldn't necessarily count Cooper out).

 

Yes, unfortunately for Redmayne and Keaton, neither one seem to be slam dunks like a Daniel Day-Lewis. Redmayne seems too young and his performance didn't get as much critical acclaim as Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot even though a lot of Oscar pundits like to compare the two films. Keaton was A-List back in the 80s, but he made a lot of bad movies for a long time, so he has the veteran status, but isn't considered due.

 

 Honestly, I feel that Cooper benefits from being the right age since most Best Actor winners are usually around 40 when they win, and the timing of it all. He'll be the only former nominee in his category. His film is peaking at the right time. Plus, this will be his third nomination in 3 years. 

 

I really want Keaton to win, but it does seem like Cooper might surprise everyone. So now I'm actually accepting that Cooper will win that way I won't be too disappointed if it happens.

[Rick Kitchen]

American Sniper sold out last night in the Sacramento area.

 

[Shannon L.]

Just got back from seeing American Sniper.  Maybe I was still smarting from the Selma snubs or maybe the controversy about real life vs. what was in the book was heavy in my mind, but I left feeling a little underwhelmed.  Brad was good, as always, and there were a couple of scenes that stood out as very good, but all in all, I left feeling like  "um...ok." 

 

Maybe I should have given it a couple more weeks before going to see it, since it was just this past Monday I walked out of Selma thinking "WOW!!"

Edited January 18, 2015 by Shannon L.

[clady]

I just got back from American Sniper also and I thought it was fantastic. I feel Bradley's nomination is deserved and I've never liked him. I've never cared for any Clint Eastwood directed films either but this one was excellent. I don't care that the book is inaccurate, it's a good movie. Well worth seeing.

[ancslove]

There's an interview in People magazine with Chris Kyle's wife, and it talks about how she sees American Sniper as his legacy and how his children will know/remember him, and how involved she has been in the movie production ever since Kyle's murder.  I wonder if Taya's involvement led to a lot of the smoothing over of Kyle's actions and character.  http://www.people.com/article/american-sniper-chris-kyle-widow-taya-kyle-coping

[ruby24]

Oh, I'm sure it did. From what I've read, Chris Kyle's book is nearly a complete fiction- the guy may have been a pathological liar. I'm really surprised that hasn't gotten a whole lot of traction yet (I suspect it will before the Oscars).

Edited January 18, 2015 by ruby24

[Shannon L.]

I found myself wanting to see more of Chris at home.  I was really interested in his brother and father and the relationship between the three of them, too.  Seeing what we did about Chris stateside, I think Bradly Cooper would have moved me to tears. Of course, there may not been a story there at all--everything was probably fairly normal.  I was really impressed with the sandstorm sequence and I thought the scene where the kid picks up the grenade launcher, as well as the one in the bar when he got home were beautifully portrayed.  You could just see all of the emotions in his eyes.

 

I can understand why the film and Bradly were nominated, but, for me, I think it came down it not living up to the hype.  I'm willing to bet I'd have liked it a lot better if I knew nothing about it.

 

Last night my family and I watched Grand Budapest Hotel it proved what a large number of strong lead male performances there were this year.  Ralph Fiennes was amazing.  I'm not sure if I think it was good enough to win Best Picture (but deserved the nomination), but I'd love to see it win Best Original Screenplay and Best Production Design. 

Edited January 18, 2015 by Shannon L.

[anyanka323]

Oh, I'm sure it did. From what I've read, Chris Kyle's book is nearly a complete fiction- the guy may have been a pathological liar. I'm really surprised that hasn't gotten a whole lot of traction yet (I suspect it will before the Oscars).

Kyle, at least in his own words in the book, showed no remorse for what he did while in the US military.  He comes across as a bit of a psychopath, to be honest, and as someone who got a bit of a high from killing people.  I have family that served in Iraq and they didn't come back the same person they were before their tour.  That's why I find Kyle and his book to be more fiction than non-fiction. 

 

The book came out about the same time as Zero Dark Thirty was taking hits for both its accuracy and the filmmakers getting help and access from the CIA.  Given what little has been released about that mission and based upon other source, including Mark Bowden's book and several others, the depiction of the Seal Team 6 raid and the process behind is probably as accurate as a depiction as we're going to get until more material is declassified. 

 

American Sniper comes across as a conservative response to the Hurt Locker, with more of pro-US government, pro-military theme. 

[Quof]

Just saw Imitation Game. Benedict killed me.

[scrambled eggs]

Saw American Sniper last night. I was also underwhelmed--left the theater feeling that there was a potentially more interesting movie inside the movie we saw. Sienna Miller's role as Chris' wife felt thankless, all she did was cry on the phone and try to guilt trip him. What was the point of the scene where he meets up with his brother? More focus on the war at home would have made the movie more engaging.

[KatWay]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/06/real-american-sniper-hate-filled-killer-why-patriots-calling-hero-chris-kyle#start-of-comments

 

Interesting article on Chris Kyle and the problematic nature of making him into the "first real superhero" or whatever crap the Warner Bros guy spouted. The article itself doesn't criticise the movie at all, only the reaction to it by some.

 

However, I'd argue that the movie invites this stuff because this dichotomy (us=good, them=bad, us shooting them=good) is there in the movie too. While Cooper gives a good portrayal and the character seems complex at first, if you look at the source you find out that actually they're glossing over quite a bit of this guy's flaws.

Edited January 19, 2015 by KatWay

[SallyAlbright]

Just saw American Sniper as well, and I'd be totally okay with Cooper getting the upset win. Now having seen all 5 of the Best Actor performances, I actually think I'd rank Keaton at 4th or 5th place. He was very solid in Birdman, but it just didn't stick with me or have anywhere near the emotional impact of either Redmayne or Cooper for me this year. 

[hendersonrocks]

I've seen a TON of backlash brewing against American Sniper in the last 24-36 hours as the $$$ gushed in--the absolutely horrifying, racist tweets from a-hole strangers about how awesome it is to kill Muslims seemed to be the first wave; the second wave seemed to be related to Michael Moore and other Hollywood-ers weighing in/distributing a highly critical story from The New Republic; the third wave is Taya Kyle pulling back from interviews related to the movie. It will be interesting to see what happens from here.

 

 

[JBC344]

Interesting, originally I thought that the awards shut out for American Sniper for everything before the Oscars was about the inaccuracies  of Chris's life. It seems like the criticism on both sides is building up.

[Dejana]

Interesting, originally I thought that the awards shut out for American Sniper for everything before the Oscars was about the inaccuracies  of Chris's life. It seems like the criticism on both sides is building up.

 

American Sniper made its public debut the same day as Selma (November 11), actually, at the same film festival. Selma came out of it with better buzz IIRC. Sniper was completed earlier and didn't have quite the same screener issues, and it was likely easier to get people to seek out a late entry to awards season when it's directed by Clint Eastwood, starring two-time Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper.

 

It's funny to see the award prognosticators all over the inaccuracies with Sniper now that it's a big hit and Oscar threat, because the stories about that were out there before, but more in the sphere of The Guardian, as opposed to The Wrap and Awards Daily. Selma was out the same day and the LBJ controversy was widely discussed and dissected about what it meant for Selma's awards chances.

 

Oscar voting doesn't start for more than two weeks (February 6-17). By then, the AS backlash could die down, intensify or the backlash to the backlash could rally support around it. Or it could help Boyhood be embraced by those AMPAS voters who may have been lukewarm about it not being "big" enough for Best Picture.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Dejana

[AshleyN]

I'm kind of curious about what's going to win the SAG ensemble this weekend. Most years they go with the Best Picture frontrunner, but sometimes they'll go with a bigger and/or "starrier" ensemble instead. Given that the Boyhood ensemble only has four people nominated for it, will they go with Birdman or The Grand Budapest Hotel instead? The former has the most star-studded cast, and seems to be regarded as something of an acting showcase similar to last year's winner American Hustle, while the latter has the largest cast and seems to be the most "ensembly" film, for lack of a better term.

 

On the other hand, if Boyhood does win, it should probably erase whatever lingering doubts there may be about it winning Best Picture.

Edited January 22, 2015 by AshleyN

[absnow54]

I agree that Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel are much stronger contenders for the SAG awards than Boyhood, but I can still see them honoring the actors for their 12 year journey with the characters. Besides Patricia Arquette, and to an extent Ethan Hawke, the actin in that movie wasn't very strong.

[proserpina65]

Sniper was completed earlier and didn't have quite the same screener issues,

 

I think the late screener issues played a huge role in Selma getting far fewer Oscar nominations than expected.  For late opening films, screeners sent to Academy members have become vital.

[AshleyN]

I think the studio just bungled Selma entirely. They should never have rushed it out this year when they didn't even finish filming until the summer. I'm pretty sure I read that Duvernay barely finished it in time for it's festival debut, and obviously that contributed to the screener issues. Also, like someone said, it's easier to get away with a late release when your movie is directed by a screen legend who's also a two-time directing winner and stars one of the biggest actors in the world.

 

Even with it's subject matter, given that Selma had mostly unknowns both behind and in front of the camera I think it really should have been given more time to build buzz - maybe a premiere at one of the earlier festivals like Toronto, and then a release in November or something. I dunno, maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but I feel like it would have at least been on a more even playing field that way.

Edited January 23, 2015 by AshleyN

[JBC344]

I agree I think that Selma's release should have been postponed a year.  Not to get racial but I think a little distance between "black themed" movies after we just had 12 Years a Slave, would have benefitted Selma.  As a black actor myself I just don't see the Academy honoring two black themed movies in succession. Unfortunately I do not think that we are there yet.

[Dejana]

Here come the "Anonymous Academy voter speaks!" stories:

 

Will you vote for Selma for Best Picture?

If I was really gonna be honest, I think in that field, yes. I think Birdman is a wonderful film. I think I’m slightly prejudiced because several people I know have had such a difficult time personally with [director/co-writer] Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu that when things are close, I’d err against him. He has a reputation for being terrible to work with. Directors have to be demanding and controlling and narcissistic—all the successful ones are—but there’s a degree! The real truth is I thought Selma is a wonderful movie and she did an extraordinary job. And as a woman, that sways me a little.

 

Getting back to racial issues and the Academy: Let’s not forget that last year, 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture (though that hardly makes up for years of omissions). Do you think they’re racist?

No. I like to think it’s all pure and it’s an organization of one’s peers, but marketing and all that stuff finally does have an impact and Selma didn’t get the campaign and backing it quite needed with that group of people in a timely way.

 

Can anyone really fault Ava DuVernay for tweaking the movie rather than getting it in for various deadlines?

No. Exactly. But then there was the controversy. If you took away the controversy, you’d be in a different position, but it was too late to recover from that. As for the timing, I got my screener with plenty of time. And it isn’t like there aren’t precedents for holiday releases. You’ve got a black woman and a black film and you’re pitching it to a liberal organization—if anyone should be open to it, it’s that body. 12 Years a Slave was an extraordinary accomplishment and a shot out of the dark. If you were going to split hairs, that is a better movie, but the last thing I want to come off as is, “We’ve got two black movies, so let’s marginalize them and accommodate one.” Selma is really a strong film, especially in a weak year.

 

These stories always give a good insight into why the nominations/wins go the way that they do. This voter is a bit snarky (and not a fan of the Keira Knightley nom), but seems somewhat thoughtful, at least compared to other voters who've been profiled in similar stories. She mentions Julianne Moore being "completely charming" and "great at the Academy lunches" as part of the reasoning of why she'll win. OTOH, she's going to vote Iñárritu for Best Director despite her personal feelings about him, because she thinks much more highly of Birdman than Boyhood.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Dejana

[AshleyN]

Yeah, those ballots are always interesting. Even though statistically a few ballots might not mean much, it does give you a look at the mixture of genuine insight, personal biases, and downright sillyness that goes into the voting.

 

 

In other news, the PGA Award goes to...Birdman? That's interesting. The last time the PGA winner didn't win the Oscar was Little Miss Sunshine.

Edited January 25, 2015 by AshleyN

[scarynikki12]

That's really interesting.  I wonder if we'll see another split between Director and Picture.  Then again, if SAG awards Boyhood, then this may just be a year when the Producers Guild is simply the odd guild out, as I fully expect the DGA to give it to Linklater.

 

Or, and this is my wish, the vote splits between Boyhood and Birdman and Selma sneaks in to win it.

[Dejana]

In other news, the PGA Award goes to...Birdman? That's interesting. The last time the PGA winner didn't win the Oscar was Little Miss Sunshine.

 

I wonder if Boyhood is another Social Network...critics wax rhapsodic but the guilds and Academy don't respond as well to it. Birdman is about an actor staging a comeback, so that probably resonates with a lot of voters. The Artist was about an actor coping with the changing Hollywood landscape and it managed to win Best Picture despite being a silent movie in black & white. Birdman does make more sense as the Boyhood alternative, if there's going to be such a thing, than the politically polarizing American Sniper. I guess Keaton's odds to win Best Actor have improved.

 

I'm pleased that there's some unpredictability in this awards season after all!

[sally-can-wait]

Just got back from seeing The Theory of Everything and I have to say I was more struck by the performance of Felicity Jones than I was Eddie Redmayne. I did think Redmayne was terrific and would have no problem with him winning but I felt that Jones was the backbone of that picture. I've seen Wild and Gone Girl and don’t think either Reese Witherspoon or Rosamund Pike can touch with Jones did. I have not seen Still Alice and it’s my understanding that Julianne Moore is the front-runner but I wonder why Jones is not getting more hype? Is Julianne Moore just that much better?

 

P.S. I rented Boyhood the other night and had to turn it off after 40 minutes because I found it so unengaging. I have enjoyed Linklater before (particularly the "Before" trilogy) but this seemed to be a series of vignettes with little to no purpose. I'm truly shocked by the critical acclaim that it's getting. 

Edited January 25, 2015 by mables-child

[vibeology]

Just got back from seeing The Theory of Everything and I have to say I was more struck by the performance of Felicity Jones than I was Eddie Redmayne. I did think Redmayne was terrific and would have no problem with him winning but I felt that Jones was the backbone of that picture. I've seen Wild and Gone Girl and don’t think either Reese Witherspoon or Rosamund Pike can touch with Jones did. I have not seen Still Alice and it’s my understanding that Julianne Moore is the front-runner but I wonder why Jones is not getting more hype? Is Julianne Moore just that much better?

 

I also just returned from seeing The Theory of Everything and I do so agree with you. Jones was spectacular and its very much her performance that touched me. I took a shine to Pike's Amazing Amy (she was my book Amy, exactly how I imagined her when I read the novel a few years back) and then this performance by Jones was so moving. Julianne has always been a great actress, but she better bring it if she's so out in front of these two. I have a hard time believing its a runaway.

[ruby24]

I think it's a pretty big deal that Birdman won the PGA. It tells me that Boyhood may well be more a critics movie than an industry movie after all- which is funny, because that's what I had thought when I originally saw it, but then it kind of seemed to turn into the default frontrunner. But I was always suspicious about the amount of passion it really had- mostly because I've heard from others who've seen it that it just wasn't THAT impressive, aside from the 12-year achievement part.

 

I liked it myself, and I can't help but admire what Linklater did, but the movie itself did have issues- namely with some bad acting (I'm sorry, but those kids are not good- I know they could have been worse and he probably got lucky with what he had, but "passable" isn't "good"), and bad dialogue in the last hour of the film especially (that scene with the kids sitting around in the abandoned house was cringeworthy).

[Quof]

Is there a SAG thread?

[Athena]

Is there a SAG thread?

 

Not yet, but you can start one in Specials where the other indiviual award shows threads live.

[ancslove]

So, Eddie Redmayne took the SAG for Best Actor.  I really hope this puts him back in the Oscar game, so to speak.

[scarynikki12]

SAG gave it to Birdman so we might have another split year. It's pretty interesting.

[SallyAlbright]

SOOOOO incredibly happy Eddie won. Looks like he's back in the race! With the Globe and the SAG, he's in pretty good shape, historically speaking. 

[vb68]

Wow, suddenly Birdman has all the momentum.   It really is interesting.  I understand the point about it being about actors.  That makes a lot of sense.  It just surprises me in that so many different people have told me that they didn't like it and didn't consider it "Best Picture material".

 

And it also looks like Best Actor is a toss up.  I thought Micheal Keaton would win in a walk, but Eddie Redmayne could certainly take it now.  Bradley Cooper is also a factor.  I think his movie may be too polarizing for him to win, but his votes could maybe split the vote somehow.  I'm not sure. 

[AshleyN]

Eddie Redmayne is probably going to win the BAFTA too, isn't he?

 

Meanwhile, Birdman follows up the PGA win with SAG ensemble. If it can pull off a DGA win then it has to be the new frontrunner, but if Linklater wins then things are totally up in the air.

 

And of course American Sniper and Cooper are there as a wildcard for both picture and actor. And to think it looked like everything was decided a week or two ago!

Edited January 26, 2015 by AshleyN

[ruby24]

I really hated Theory of Everything and I can't stand Eddie Redmayne's desperate campaigning, so I want literally any other actor in that category to win besides him. As for the Daniel Day-Lewis comparisons, My Left Foot and DDL blows Theory/Redmayne out of the water in every single way, so please, Oscar, go with Keaton, Cooper, Cumberbatch, anyone else. I do realize it's unlikely if he has SAG and BAFTA under his belt heading into the night.

[thuganomics85]

Yeah, this has gotten kind of interesting now.  Birdman picking up both the PGA and SAG is pretty big for that, and it seems to be building some momentum at the right time.  But, Michael Keaton still losing out to Eddie Redymane makes me wonder if it's too little, too late for him.  I agree that the BAFTA is probably already Eddie's, and I can't see Eddie losing when he's got the Globes, SAG, and that.  Going to wait and see about director.  I still think Linklater is the front-runner and the we'll get another split come Oscar time, but if the DGA results are different, then I don't know what to think.

 

I do think that the rest of the acting categories are a lock.  I don't see anyone upsetting Julianne Moore, Patrica Arquette, or J.K. Simmons, baring Birdman building up so much momentum, that is boost both Emma Stone and Edward Norton.  

[aradia22]

 

I really hated Theory of Everything and I can't stand Eddie Redmayne's desperate campaigning, so I want literally any other actor in that category to win besides him.

What? This is the first I've heard of this. Obviously we're not privy to all the panels they do for industry professionals but I also don't really pay any mind to the talk show circuit. What kind of desperate campaigning has he been up to that sets him apart from the rest?

[SallyAlbright]

What? This is the first I've heard of this. Obviously we're not privy to all the panels they do for industry professionals but I also don't really pay any mind to the talk show circuit. What kind of desperate campaigning has he been up to that sets him apart from the rest?

Yeah, admittedly I want him to win, but I haven't seen him do anything that every single other nominee hasn't done.They are all going to lots of events, doing interviews and schmoozing, but I haven't noticed anyone standing out as being desperate. 

[gator12]

I think the poster might be talking about this http://www.justjared.com/2015/01/14/eddie-redmayne-celebrates-globes-win-with-tons-of-celebs/ among other things

[blixie]

It's interesting that it's playing out exactly the opposite of what the SAG member insinuated re:  Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Keaton, she said she'd vote for Keaton in spite of Inarritu, and that she'd err against Birdman due to his not being well liked. That bums me out, I want Keaton to win and Inarritu to lose cause I hate his movies so so so much. Maybe Keaton can hustle, he's really funny charming guy, but he's not campaigning at all to the degree of Cumberbatch/Redmayne.