2017 Awards Season

[gator12]

Viola Davis is going to Sweep  and win all the televise awards, unless BAFTA decide to give it to their own Naomi Harris.

I find it weird that BAFTA cares more about being an Oscar precursor than awarding their own industry. I don't know when that change but it just weird.

[Shannon L.]

On 1/6/2017 at 10:33 PM, ruby24 said:

I don't know if anyone here has seen Sing Street, but I really think that movie was a better musical than La La Land. The original music in that was better too. (You can see it on Netflix now, if anyone's interested- it's really adorable).

I don't know that I would compare it to La La Land since it's such a different kind of movie, but, I do agree that I liked it and the music more.

[starri]

15 hours ago, SeanC said:

Not that I think Deadpool has any chance of getting a Best Picture nomination, but that'd be funny (particularly as I know a lot of cinephiles whose heads would explode)?

I'm sorry, but if they reward Deadpool (admittedly a fun movie) with their history of missing two other action movies that should have been nominated--The Force Awakens and especially Skyfall--that's some bullshit.

[clb1016]

4 hours ago, starri said:

I'm sorry, but if they reward Deadpool (admittedly a fun movie) with their history of missing two other action movies that should have been nominated--The Force Awakens and especially Skyfall--that's some bullshit.

Wasn't Skyfall last year?  Didn't the song win the Oscar (or did I imagine that)?

[gator12]

Mad Max: Fury Road was nominated for Best Picture last year

[vibeology]

Maybe I just don't understand what it is the PGA awards. Is it a straight "best film" award or is it to honor producers for getting a film made? Because if it's the second, I don't mind the Deadpool nomination. That movie lived in development hell for a while and it was a huge risk to get it off the ground, make an R-rated comedy Superhero film and have it be so successful. If we're just rewarding quality, though, it probably shouldn't make the cut.

And I don't think I can justify a Best Picture Oscar nomination under any circumstances. The visuals have problems (Colossus being the main one), outside of Reynolds no one is a fleshed out character and outside of Deadpool's jokes, the script is very thin. It's a fun movie, but I'll be annoyed if it gets a Best Picture nomination. Especially since I think this is a very strong year for films and there are other fringe movies (The Lobster, Sing Street, Captain Fantastic) that I think deserve that spot more.

[absnow54]

And I don't think I can justify a Best Picture Oscar nomination under any circumstances.

I'm with you. The film broke convention from the normal super hero mold, and the producers worked tirelessly to get it funded and made, but outside of that, it was an above average super hero film. It was fun, but nowhere in the ballpark of Best Picture for me. Mad Max was a franchise film that stood out and was rightfully nominated. It had a thought provoking story, incredible acting, and astounding visuals. Throwing Deadpool into the Best Picture race doesn't feel deserved, but it's shown up in so many nominations this season, I wouldn't be shocked if the Academy throws it in one of their extra "never-going-to-happen" slots for ratings.

[starri]

4 hours ago, clb1016 said:

Wasn't Skyfall last year?  Didn't the song win the Oscar (or did I imagine that)?

Yes, Adele won the year it came out, which was richly deserved.  But honestly, while I don't think it should have won, I absolutely think it should have been nominated.  Bond movies aren't really high art, but this kind of was.

And Judi Dench deserved one too.

[clb1016]

1 minute ago, starri said:

Yes, Adele won the year it came out, which was richly deserved.  But honestly, while I don't think it should have won, I absolutely think it should have been nominated.  Bond movies aren't really high art, but this kind of was.

And Judi Dench deserved one too.

Sorry, I misread your post.  I thought you were saying that Skyfall should have been among this year's nominees.

[scarynikki12]

The recipients of the Best Picture Oscar are the producers. The award is considered the most important and gets to go last but it's an award for the producers only.  Best Picture just sounds better than Best Producers. So, with that in mind, I think Deadpool would make sense if it were to carry over from the PGA nominations. Plus there are always movies on the ballot that have no chance of winning so I say have fun and nominate the filmmakers as a reward for their perseverance. 

[SeanC]

American Society of Cinematographers nominations:

Quote

Greig Fraser - Lion

James Laxton - Moonlight

Rodrigo Prieto - Silence

Linus Sandgren - La La Land

Bradford Young - Arrival

The ASC never does worse than 4/5 in predicting what the Academy's cinematography branch will do.

Rodrigo Prieto is the only prior Oscar nominee in this lot (for Brokeback Mountain).  Though James Laxton will have to worry about support for his work on Yoga Hosers splitting his vote.

Edited January 11, 2017 by SeanC

[kiddo82]

I don't know.  I feel like the HFPA's love fest for La La Land was a little too over the top to be taken too seriously. (Screenplay?  Really?).  It'll be interesting to see if the film, and Stone in particular, will keep up the momentum or start to fall off.  Although, the monkey wrench wasn't her winning in the musical/comedy category but Portman NOT winning in the drama category.  Regardless, I think conventional wisdom is to give the edge to whoever wins the SAG.

[Shannon L.]

16 hours ago, SeanC said:

American Society of Cinematographers nominations:

The ASC never does worse than 4/5 in predicting what the Academy's cinematography branch will do.

Rodrigo Prieto is the only prior Oscar nominee in this lot (for Brokeback Mountain).  Though James Laxton will have to worry about support for his work on Yoga Hosers splitting his vote.

It's typically the easiest category to guess a winner since you can immediately eliminate any film that didn't put God (or Mother Nature, if you prefer) behind the camera.  It's something that drives us crazy every year.

[SeanC]

Costume Design Guild nominations:

Quote

Contemporary Film
Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie – Rebecca Hale
Captain Fantastic – Courtney Hoffman
La La Land – Mary Zophres
Lion – Cappi Ireland
Nocturnal Animals – Arianne Phillips

Quote

Period Film
The Dressmaker – Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson
Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle
Hail, Caesar! – Mary Zophres
Hidden Figures – Renee Ehrlich Kalfus
Jackie – Madeline Fontaine

Quote

Fantasy Film
Doctor Strange – Alexandra Byrne
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
Kubo and the Two Strings – Deborah Cook
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children – Colleen Atwood
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – David Crossman, Glyn Dillion

Should that last category be "Science Fiction/Fantasy"?

Anyway, the Academy's costume design branch usually nominates 1-2 Best Picture contenders and fills out the rest with films that aren't.  La La Land will probably be the lone contemporary representative (and probably the category frontrunner).  Fill out the remainder with films primarily from the period film category.

I hope The Dressmaker gets in, since fashion is so pivotal to that film.  Also, I hold out some hope that they'll recognize The Handmaiden, as foreign films will sometimes get in here without much in the way of precursor support (see, e.g., The Grandmaster).

Edited January 12, 2017 by SeanC

[SeanC]

Directors Guild nominations:

Quote

DAMIEN CHAZELLE - La La Land
GARTH DAVIS - Lion
BARRY JENKINS - Moonlight
KENNETH LONERGAN - Manchester by the Sea
DENIS VILLENEUVE - Arrival 

Also, the nominees for directing their first feature:

Quote

GARTH DAVIS - Lion
KELLY FREMON CRAIG - Edge of Seventeen
TIM MILLER - Deadpool
NATE PARKER - Birth of a Nation
DAN TRACHTENBERG - 10 Cloverfield Lane

Seeing as Davis also got into the main award, one would expect the debut directorial prize is his for the taking.  Though I hope it goes to Kelly Fremon Craig.

[Shannon L.]

Wasn't Fantastic Beasts set in the 20s?  I know the film itself was a fantasy, but the clothing was period. 

[starri]

5 hours ago, SeanC said:

NATE PARKER - Birth of a Nation

We're still doing that, huh?

[aradia22]

I never knew they split up the design nominations like that. I feel like "The Dressmaker – Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson" and "Hail, Caesar! – Mary Zophres" would be good "Oh, that movie came out this year" choices that don't pick up any other awards or nominations. I'm surprised Kubo is being considered. Has an animated movie ever been nominated? I would not be surprised if "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood" got in there but it's not something I feel strongly about. But it's basically also a period movie and I tend to like her work. I can see either "Doctor Strange" or "Rogue One" getting the "Mad Max: Fury Road" slot this year but I don't know if either movie has as much momentum. Mad Max was nominated in other categories, right? 

Not having seen most of the movies, my picks would be La La Land and Jackie. Then The Dressmaker or Hidden Figures. Then Hail Caesar or Florence Foster Jenkins if they really feel like nominating a Meryl Streep or Cohen brothers movie. And then Fantastic Beasts or something from the Fantasy category.

[Ms Blue Jay]

I thought Skyfall was so, so, so bad but I'm all for different genres of film being nominated for Best Picture.  

[starri]

2 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

I thought Skyfall was so, so, so bad but I'm all for different genres of film being nominated for Best Picture.  

See, to me it was by bar the best and most artistically challenging Bond movie.  That is perhaps not saying much, but I think there's a place for a well-crafted action film in the Best Picture category.  I remember some people saying the same thing about Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II, although I'm a bit more circumspect there.

[starri]

I don't sleep well on planes and while trapped going from Denver home to New York on Friday night, I watched Hello, My Name is Doris on Delta's complimentary inflight entertainment.  I'm actually kind of disappointed Sally Field didn't get at least an Independent Spirit Award nomination.  I do (really) like her, but given that she tends to lean into being mawkish in a lot of her work for the last twenty-five years, I was surprised and pleased that she could do something so atypical and while she did occasionally fall into bad habits, they actually worked for the character.

[BetterButter]

Razzies 2017: Zoolander 2 leads losers with nine nominations

[Silver Raven]

I've finally seen Moana, and I have to say that despite my wish that Lin Manuel Miranda got a PEGOT, I don't think "You're Welcome" comes even close to being as good a song as "City of Stars".

[Shannon L.]

2 hours ago, Silver Raven said:

I've finally seen Moana, and I have to say that despite my wish that Lin Manuel Miranda got a PEGOT, I don't think "You're Welcome" comes even close to being as good a song as "City of Stars".

It doesn't, but I don't know that that's the song that would be nominated.  The GG nominated "I Know the Way" and, imo, that one or "How Far I'll Go" are the ones that could get him the Oscar.  I don't know how Oscars nominations for songs work, but if they have to submit a song and they choose  "You're Welcome" then they don't have much of a shot.

[scarynikki12]

Even though I don't want it to happen, I do think that La La Land will win Best Picture, since Hollywood cannot stop themselves from awarding themselves.  So, since they're going to win the big award of the night (and possibly Best Actress if Natalie doesn't win the SAG), then they can lose in the music categories.  The sound mixing was terrible and made the actual songs forgettable.  Plus, I and many others adore Lin, he gives great acceptance speech, and spreading the wealth would ease the pain of LLL's inevitable win. 

As for the process, I don't think there's a limit on how many songs an individual movie can submit, it just has to meet the criteria (original to the movie and specific placement in the movie if memory serves) and garner enough votes to get nominated.  I could be wrong but I know that multiple songs from a single movie have been nominated before so it's not like Lin has to pick one and hope for the best.

[SeanC]

3 hours ago, scarynikki12 said:

As for the process, I don't think there's a limit on how many songs an individual movie can submit, it just has to meet the criteria (original to the movie and specific placement in the movie if memory serves) and garner enough votes to get nominated.  I could be wrong but I know that multiple songs from a single movie have been nominated before so it's not like Lin has to pick one and hope for the best.

There's no limit on how many song a film can submit.  There is a nominations limit now, though (2) -- there didn't used to be one, but the music branch changed the rules after the back-to-back cases of Dreamgirls and Enchanted getting three nominations and then losing to films with only one nomination.

We already have the list of submitted songs, in any event.  Moana submitted two ("How Far I'll Go" and "We Know the Way").

[SeanC]

And the results are in.  La La Land lands 14 nominations, tying All About Eve and Titanic's all-time record.

No particularly big surprises in three of the four acting categories, but Best Actress threw a number of curveballs, notably omitting Amy Adams even as her film did well overall.  So Adams won't have to worry about tying Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter's record for the most nominations without a win this year.

Denzel pads his lead on Morgan Freeman as the most nominated black actor.  Meanwhile, Viola Davis breaks out of a tie with Whoopi Goldberg to become the solo most nominated black actress (and Octavia Spencer joins Goldberg in a tie for second place now).

Meanwhile, Ruth Negga's surprise (at this point, since her film faded markedly otherwise) nomination means that there are nominees of colour in every acting category for the first time since 2004.

Mel Gibson's chances of a directing nomination appeared to be fading in recent weeks, but he lands a nomination over Lion's Garth Davis, thus insuring at least a modicum of controversy for the remainder of the awards season.

I'm impressed that Lucas Hedges actually got into the Supporting Actor category, because it's usually very hard for male actors that young to land a nomination.  That's a show of strength for Manchester, but at the same time it missed Editing.

Edited January 24, 2017 by SeanC

[vibeology]

La La Land got a nomination for Sound Mixing? I get that its not a prestige category but every single person I've seen complained specifically about the sound mixing in that movie. What the flying fuck? None of the other nominations for it surprise me but the sound categories are just crazy to me!

Meryl got a nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins and shut out Amy Adams or Taraji P. Henson. I get that her GG speech was awesome but her performance in no way was better than either of those two women. In fact, I'm shocked at just how little Hidden Figures got considering the buzz it's had these last few weeks. Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Octavia isn't much at all. It didn't even get a Costume Design award, which is very much deserved or song where they had a good-ish shot of picking up a nomination too.

And I'm genuinely gutted that Sing Street couldn't get a song nomination (especially while the Trolls song did.) Those songs in Sing Street are everything and getting them onstage to perform would have been a nice way to recognize the movie since it isn't going to get much else. I am weirdly happy to see La La Land get two while Moana got one. Hopefully City of Stars and Audition split the vote and Lin PEGOTs. I really do think "How Far I'll Go" is the stronger song. It is more lyrically dense and I think (because it's an "I want" song) does more for the narrative of the movie than the other three I've seen. (Because I don't know what "The Empty Chair" is but I've got a month to find out.)

Of course the Academy nominated Mel Gibson and Casey Affleck. After the Cesars announced they were honouring Polanski this week, I really have no hope in seeing trash men be held accountable for their actions by the industry. Gibson won't win at least, but Affleck is the clear favourite in his category and poor Brie Larson (who last year took time to hug every woman who was on stage for Gaga's performance) will have to hand him an Oscar. Ick.

ETA: And the Academy continued is trend of segregating the Best Actress Performances from the Best Picture Nominees with only one of the five women nominated for Best Actress having their movie represented in the Best Picture category. (Emma Stone for La La Land) Elle didn't even get nominated in Best Foreign Language Film. And it's not as if there aren't any female driven films in the Best Picture category so it's so bizarre that this keeps happening.

Edited January 24, 2017 by vibeology

[starri]

22 minutes ago, vibeology said:

I'm shocked at just how little Hidden Figures got considering the buzz it's had these last few weeks

I'm not. I doubt we'd have had any nominations at all except for Octavia if it hadn't unexpectedly been a hit. Should it have gotten more?  Yes. 

[thuganomics85]

No massive surprises, but I am a little shocked Mel Gibson got director.  I guess Hollywood has finally "forgave" him?  Thrilled for Denis Villeneuve though.  Between him and Taylor Sheridan getting a Writing Nod for Hell or High Water, I'm glad the Sicario guys got some nominations this go around!

Best Actress is probably the most interesting one with Ruth Negga getting in over Amy Adams, and Isabelle Huppert getting one too.  I'll wait and see how the SAGs play out before determining if Natalie Portman is still the front runner or not.

Good for Lucas Hedges' nomination.  Interesting Michael Shannon gets a nod for Nocturnal Animals and not Globe Winner, Aaron Taylor-Johnson. Still rooting for Mahershala Ali though.

La La Land having two songs nominated gives me a little hope that maybe there could be a split and Moana could pull it off.  But, really, I suspect it will be "City of Stars."

Overall, I've seen most of the Best Picture nominees: just need to catch Hidden Figures (which should be doable), Lion (hasn't arrived in my area yet), and Fences (which came and went, so I hope we get it back.)  Could be a fun one, but if I was a betting man, I would still predict La La Land taking the big ones, because I think it is one of those films that Academy voters adore.  I still hope Moonlight gets some; especially Mahershala.

ETA: looking at the actual producers for the Best Picture films, and it is interesting that Matt Damon is nominated for Manchester by the Sea and Pharrell Williams for Hidden Figures.  Didn't realize both of them produced those respected films.

Edited January 24, 2017 by thuganomics85

[SeanC]

On doing some further checking, in addition to being the first year in 2004 that there are POC nominees in all the acting categories, this ties 2006 for the most overall POC acting nominations, with 7.  In both cases that involved 3/5 in Supporting Actress and 2/5 in Supporting Actor, but whereas 2006 had two black nominees for Best Actor and none in Best Actress, 2016 has one apiece.

Also, even if it's kinda category fraud, I'm happy for Dev Patel getting a nomination.  He should have gotten nominated for Slumdog Millionaire, seeing how much the Academy loved it, but his age worked against him there.

Edited January 24, 2017 by SeanC

[Schweedie]

I'm really, really disappointed Hidden Figures didn't do better. Happy for Octavia Spencer and its screenplay/Best Picture noms, obviously, but Taraji P Henson was robbed. Thought it should've made Costume and Styling, too. Best Adapted Screenplay seems like a really tough category this year, doesn't it?

Very pleased for Lucas Hedges! Didn't actually expect him to get in.

I just want Manchester to win Screenplay. As much as I love it I could deal with it losing any other category but that one. I know La La Land is probably going to take all the big ones, but - if it really does get Screenplay over Manchester, I'm going to throw something. Disappointed that they missed out on an Editing nomination, too. I thought it worked so well with the constant unannounced flashbacks.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Schweedie

[scarynikki12]

A nomination is not the same as a win but I'm still taking LLL getting in for sound mixing as proof that the only thing that would have prevented it from being the big frontrunner/winner is commercial failure.  On the other hand, just because it got a bunch of nominations doesn't mean it will win them all.  That's the silver lining I'm hoping for. 

I'm happy with the various acting nominations in general but I still wish Amy Adams, Taraji, and Janelle Monae had all earned spots.  I do take some satisfaction that it was Shannon who got the nomination for Nocturnal Animals, which I hope means Mahershala now has it in the bag.  I'm also hoping the two songs from LLL cancel each other out and let Lin take the win.  If one has to win, though, I'd prefer the Audition song as it was the only one that the bad sound mixing let the audience hear in full and was the only one where the singer (Stone in this case) actually sang from the diaphragm rather than the back of the throat.  And as I typed that I realized that Stone and Gosling are probably going to perform those songs.  Here's hoping they do some vocal training before the show.

[Qoass]

Does Hollywood hate Annette Bening?

[NumberCruncher]

I really wish I could see what everyone else sees in La La Land.  I liked it okay but it's hardly what I would call Oscar-caliber (cliched story, sub-par musical, etc.).  Why it's been so celebrated is a mystery to me but again, clearly I'm in the minority.

I would have rather had more accolades fall on a movie like Hidden Figures and its cast, but as always, awards season continues to serve as a reminder that I clearly don't have a pulse on the industry.

[starri]

Movies about Hollywood are always Academy favorites. It's a circle jerk. 

[AimingforYoko]

Quote

Best Actress is probably the most interesting one with Ruth Negga getting in over Amy Adams

I would throw over Meryl to get Adams in. I really, really, really hate to agree with Herr Trump, but in this case, I think she was overrated.

[Traveller519]

I saw Manchester By the Sea, I liked Manchester by the Sea, but I think the Directorial, and especially supporting actress nominations could have gone somewhere else. I would have gone to Linklater for Everybody Wants Some!! for directing, and maybe considered Morena Baccarain for the honarary Deadpool nomination. That award probably already has Viola Davis's name already on it, anyway.

Speaking of Fences, I agree with the acting nominations, those were a lot of work, and both delivered, but the movie itself didn't capture me as one of the year's best.

I can't believe there's a 2/3 shot for one of Suicide Squad or Star Trek Beyond to capture an Oscar

[hendersonrocks]

Same as many of y'all, I think the Lucas Hedges surprise nom is an absolute joy. He was so wonderful and I'm thrilled it's being recognized. I'll also be thrilled when Mahershala Ali reigns supreme on Oscar night. 

It will be interesting to see if the La La Land backlash re: Hollywood circle-jerking (which I 100% agree with) ends up making a difference. They steamrolled the Globes, they streamrolled the nominations, but I'm still not totally convinced they'll take all the big awards at the end of this marathon. Maybe it's just my naivete and hoping that Moonlight triumphs.

[JustaPerson]

I loved La La Land but I'm dubious as to the Sound Mixing nom. But I'd honestly rather have La La Land win for "City of Stars" than Best Picture. Maybe it's a bit of the Lin Manuel Miranda backlash I feel (I love him but I'm just a bit tired of hearing about him and the PEGOT) but it's also such a gorgeous song. 

[vibeology]

3 minutes ago, JustaPerson said:

I loved La La Land but I'm dubious as to the Sound Mixing nom.

I know I already said it before but it is literally the thing that makes me most upset!!!!!! I could not hear the words to that opening number at all. How is that good sound mixing, let alone one of the best examples of the year? I would rather see Suicide Squad win a write-in for best picture than see La La Land win Sound Mixing. There is a solid chance it is the worst sound mixing I've ever heard in a professional movie.

I was looking too quickly this morning so I missed the nomination for The Lobster for Best Original Screenplay. I know it has no chance, but seeing the nomination makes me happy. The writing for that movie is fantastic. (As is the acting, but I knew that was an extremely long shot.)

I also hadn't noticed that OJ: Made In America and 13th snagged nominations. I'm really pleased with that because it shows that the Academy is willing to consider different release styles for at least some of the categories. Both really were at-home experiences for the majority of viewers between the ESPN multi episode rollout for OJ and the Netflix release for 13th so it's nice to see them be recognized despite their unusual distributions.

[SeanC]

Thoughts on each category: (other than the short categories)

Best Picture - this is La La Land's to lose, given its huge tally of nominations and Academy-friendly subject-matter. This would make it the first original musical to win Best Picture since 1958, having become the first to be nominated since 1967. Moonlight is the challenger and probable beneficiary of people who view it as the worthier, more "serious" movie (this happens every time a comedy/musical is the frontrunner, in particular).

Best Director - Damien Chazelle is a safe bet here, and would probably win even if his film loses Best Picture.

Best Actor - Affleck has won almost everything here, and his putative main rival, Washington, hasn't built much steam, particularly since the film overall faded in the course of the race and is focused now on a win for Viola Davis. Maybe if the sexual harassment allegations against Affleck really explode it will shift the media narrative, but it's late in the game for that.

Best Actress - the hardest to judge of the acting categories. Emma Stone is in the BP frontrunner, but hasn't, thus far, gathered much in the way of individual awards. Natalie Portman has critical heat, but is dividing it with Isabelle Huppert, and in neither case did their films find a ton of support outside of them. SAG will offer some clarity on this point next week, whether it's Portman or Stone.

Best Supporting Actor - the precursors would identify Mahershala Ali as the frontrunner, which I'll go with. He's a little low on the fame side to be a totally assured winner, but I don't sense much of a narrative building around any of his rivals either (this would be a different situation if Jeff Bridges didn't already have an Oscar).

Best Supporting Actress - Davis is the frontrunner here, and has a great winning narrative (she's now the most nominated black/POC actress in Academy history, but hasn't won yet, and is well-respected). If Moonlight really surged, maybe Harris would upset here, but otherwise, Davis.

Best Original Screenplay - Manchester by the Sea probably collects its second consolation prize here, unless La La Land really sweeps, but the former is such a writerly movie that I think it's the favourite (and Chazelle is more likely to be thought of as a director).

Best Adapted Screenplay - easy win for Moonlight.

Best Film Editing - Tom Cross won Best Editing for his first film with Damien Chazelle, and he will repeat here.

Best Cinematography - this is a likely win for La La Land, though in principle I could see any of these films other than Lion winning.

Best Production Design - La La Land probably wins this too, since the other BP nominee represented here (Arrival) is fairly muted for a sci-fi nominee in this category, and the others are genre/period pictures that don't seem to have much heat.

Best Costume Design - La La Land's vibrant jewel tones will likely put it in the front of the pack here, making it the first contemporary winner since The Legend of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert in 1994. If not, Jackie or Florence Foster Jenkins are more traditional period winners.

Best Original Score - La La Land in a walk.

Best Original Song - I think "Audition" is the stronger of the two songs nominated from La La Land, but "City of Stars" seems to have become the film's anthem, and so is presumptively the stronger candidate. There being two nominees opens up the possibility of "How Far I'll Go" coming up the middle, but I ultimately doubt that an original musical will win Best Picture but not Best Original Song.

Best Sound Editing - war movies generally do well here, so I'll say Hacksaw Ridge, which will be its token reward.

Best Sound Mixing - musicals do well here, so I'll guess this goes to La La Land, though I know some people have taken issue with its sound mixing.

Best Visual Effects - I have a hard time seeing this not going to the photoreal animal effects of The Jungle Book, seeing as they were resistant to Star Wars' charms last year and in general have no interest in Marvel Studios films.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Star Trek Beyond wins this, the second of the three Abrams-verse Trek films to do so, seeing as its rivals are either unseen by most or considered of dubious quality.

Best Documentary Feature - O.J.: Made in America probably walks off with this unless people rebel against its length or its being allowed into the movie awards. Who would most benefit from that happening, I'm not sure.

Best Foreign Language Film - at least going by the critical acclaim, Toni Erdmann should cruise to victory here, though the wins in this category often feel extremely random.

Best Animated Feature - Zootopia has been the frontrunner in this category all year, and it will continue to be so for the remainder of the awards season. It has an unbeatable mixture of critical support and box office power. Plus, a (sadly) timely political subtext.

2 minutes ago, vibeology said:

I also hadn't noticed that OJ: Made In America and 13th snagged nominations. I'm really pleased with that because it shows that the Academy is willing to consider different release styles for at least some of the categories. Both really were at-home experiences for the majority of viewers between the ESPN multi episode rollout for OJ and the Netflix release for 13th so it's nice to see them be recognized despite their unusual distributions.

Netflix has had a number of documentary nominees in the past already.  It's the one area where the Academy seems, as yet, willing to consider its products as film.  Though it hasn't won the prize yet.

Edited January 24, 2017 by SeanC

[Silver Raven]

5 hours ago, Schweedie said:

I just want Manchester to win Screenplay

Or Hell or High Water

[Silver Raven]

Quote

Best Foreign Language Film - at least going by the critical acclaim, Toni Erdmann should cruise to victory here, though the wins in this category often feel extremely random.

A Man Called Ove may be better known to the voters, as a novel.

[piequinn35]

I like the audition more than the city of stars, but I think city of stars will win,

will they sing it live?

[Constantinople]

2 hours ago, starri said:

Movies about Hollywood are always Academy favorites. It's a circle jerk. 

Just as the Academy distinguishes between Best Picture and Best Foreign Film, because foreign films are rarely nominated for best picture, much less win them, perhaps Best Picture should be broken in two so we have 3 categories

• Best Foreign Film
• Best Picture not about Hollywood or the Entertainment Business in General
• Best Circle Jerk

Similarly, if films about the Holocaust are still raking up Best Documentary, that could be broken down into Best Holocaust Documentary and Best non-Holocaust documentary.

[gator12]

The Academy Awards was started by Hollywood as a way to promote Hollywood. Of course they like films that are about Hollywood.

[SeanC]

Lucas Hedges, at age 20, is one of the youngest people ever nominated in that category, and, on checking into it, this is the first year since 2002 where the youngest acting nominee is a man (in 2002, 29-year-old Adrien Brody became the youngest ever Best Actor winner, and still the only one under 30; the youngest female acting nominee was Queen Latifah, then age 32).

[starri]

I am hoping, but not expecting, that Moonlight and La-La Land may have a reverse Brokeback Mountain/Crash end result.  It would certainly go a long way towards addressing the AMPAS' issues with both race and orientation.

[aradia22]

http://nymag.com/thecut/2017/01/constance-wu-slams-casey-afflecks-oscar-nom.html