NFL Thread

[Carey]

Despite the fact that I lost network service ahead of picking the games, I'm still going to wait to post them sometime between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning.  The in-actives have doomed me a ton this year.  Some are game-time decisions where I'd be late if I waited that long.  To be fair, one's status has had the opposite effect, still no success (i.e. Bama/Tennessee).

Anyway, while waiting for everything, I'll still pick tonight's now.  Arizona is favored by 2.5.  Over/Under is 43.5

I'm picking New Orleans to win outright, and the total combined score will be 43 or less.  I think I've been wrong with every game involving the Cardinals.  Can't win at home, can't lose on the road.  They finally lost on the road, so they're likely to win at home.  Of course, it helps they're playing the Saints, and I believe Hopkins returns.

For the most part, my picks are general and not against the spread.  I only focus on those for big games (TNF, SNF, MNF the GOTW).  Notable exceptions include big, decent, key games in the 1:00 window and/or games called by the Top FOX/CBS team in weeks they're not calling the National Game

[Calvada]

On 10/18/2022 at 10:13 AM, xaxat said:

Is Russell Wilson's new five year/245 million dollar contract going to be one of the worst signings ever? (Nor to mention all of the draft picks Denver traded to get him.)

In my mind there is no question the worst trade of all time was the Pack trading for John Hadl in 1974.  The Packers were  desperate for a QB. They were trying to work out a deal with the Saints to get their backup (Archie Manning) but the Saints’ starter got hurt so that deal fell through.  Dan Devine sent 5 draft picks to the Rams for John Hadl, then 34 years old and in his 13th season, a guy who only completed 6 passes and threw 2 picks for the Rams against the Pack eight days before the trade.  Devine traded their 1st, 2nd & 3rd picks in ‘75 and their 1st & 2nd picks in ‘76. Hadl had 3 good games with the Pack in ‘74 and then the wheels fell off. In ‘75 the Pack went 4-10 while Hadl threw 21 interceptions and 6 TDs. Devine was not around to watch that; he left at the end of the ‘74 season to coach Notre Dame.  This trade destroyed the Packers for years, trading all those picks in a time before free agency.  
 

[Colleenna]

47 minutes ago, Calvada said:

In my mind there is no question the worst trade of all time was the Pack trading for John Hadl in 1974.  The Packers were  desperate for a QB. They were trying to work out a deal with the Saints to get their backup (Archie Manning) but the Saints’ starter got hurt so that deal fell through.  Dan Devine sent 5 draft picks to the Rams for John Hadl, then 34 years old and in his 13th season, a guy who only completed 6 passes and threw 2 picks for the Rams against the Pack eight days before the trade.  Devine traded their 1st, 2nd & 3rd picks in ‘75 and their 1st & 2nd picks in ‘76. Hadl had 3 good games with the Pack in ‘74 and then the wheels fell off. In ‘75 the Pack went 4-10 while Hadl threw 21 interceptions and 6 TDs. Devine was not around to watch that; he left at the end of the ‘74 season to coach Notre Dame.  This trade destroyed the Packers for years, trading all those picks in a time before free agency.  
 

Rams trading "The Bus" to the Steelers.... great for the  Steelers,  the Rams notsomuch. 

[Carey]

1 hour ago, Colleenna said:

Rams trading "The Bus" to the Steelers.... great for the  Steelers,  the Rams notsomuch. 

Well, to be fair to the Rams, they did win a Super Bowl & lose another before the Steelers finally made it back to the big game in his final season

[bluegirl147]

You never know if a player is going to blossom on another team.  Drew Brees being an example. Or if a good player will continue to be good on another team and not living up to expectations.  Russell Wilson being an example.

I think some players are good because the team around them is good. I thought that about Eli Manning.   I don't think he would have led another team to two SBs.  And I think some players will be good no matter where you put them.   My beloved Troy Polamalu being an example.

Edited October 20, 2022 by bluegirl147

[xaxat]

3 hours ago, Calvada said:

In my mind there is no question the worst trade of all time was the Pack trading for John Hadl in 1974.

I was thinking more about the contract than the trade. The Broncos signed him to a new deal after trading for him. Wilson will be the third highest paid QB this season. He got over 160 million dollars guaranteed, he is on the wrong side of thirty compared to QBs with similar contracts (Mahomes, Allen etc.) And if he is shot, he will will kill them on the cap for five more years.

[DrSpaceman73]

3 hours ago, Calvada said:

In my mind there is no question the worst trade of all time was the Pack trading for John Hadl in 1974.  The Packers were  desperate for a QB. They were trying to work out a deal with the Saints to get their backup (Archie Manning) but the Saints’ starter got hurt so that deal fell through.  Dan Devine sent 5 draft picks to the Rams for John Hadl, then 34 years old and in his 13th season, a guy who only completed 6 passes and threw 2 picks for the Rams against the Pack eight days before the trade.  Devine traded their 1st, 2nd & 3rd picks in ‘75 and their 1st & 2nd picks in ‘76. Hadl had 3 good games with the Pack in ‘74 and then the wheels fell off. In ‘75 the Pack went 4-10 while Hadl threw 21 interceptions and 6 TDs. Devine was not around to watch that; he left at the end of the ‘74 season to coach Notre Dame.  This trade destroyed the Packers for years, trading all those picks in a time before free agency.  
 

I didn't know that a bit before my time.  

Five high picks for John handl?  Crazy. 

It can go the other way though. Seattle traded #2 pick that became tony dorsett for a first and three second round picks. A big haul they did nothing with. 

Dorsett had told Seattlehe wouldn't play there and would go to Canada 

[estellasmum]

3 hours ago, bluegirl147 said:

You never know if a player is going to blossom on another team.  Drew Brees being an example. Or if a good player will continue to be good on another team and not living up to expectations.  Russell Wilson being an example.

I think some players are good because the team around them is good. I thought that about Eli Manning.   I don't think he would have led another team to two SBs.  And I think some players will be good no matter where you put them.   My beloved Troy Polamalu being an example.

You aren't alone in thinking that. He was voted "most overrated player" by his fellow NFL athletes several times. I may like to bring that fact up whenever I can. 

Is it too early to say that this is easily the best TNF game since week 1 already?

[Danielg342]

59 minutes ago, estellasmum said:

Is it too early to say that this is easily the best TNF game since week 1 already?

Well, we actually have a game where the two teams can get into the end zone on a regular basis, so maybe not.

[twoods]

Who has Arizona’s defense playing this week on fantasy? Wow.

[Xeliou66]

Andy Dalton has imploded, 3 picks, 2 of them returned for TD’s. Cards lead it 28-14 at halftime. Both offenses have moved the ball pretty well but the turnovers have made the difference. 

[Salacious Kitty]

So, it looks like Carolina has thrown in the towel this season, trading Christian McCaffery to the 49ers. I didn't hear what Carolina got in return, and I'm too lazy to look it up. 

[Xeliou66]

Cards get the win 42-34 - they desperately needed a win, and it was clear they missed Hopkins who was suspended for the first 6 games. The 3 Dalton picks were the difference in the game. The Cards may improve as they have some talent, while I think the Saints season isn’t looking good - they have a lot of injuries once again and instability and shakiness at QB.

[roamyn]

41 minutes ago, Salacious Kitty said:

So, it looks like Carolina has thrown in the towel this season, trading Christian McCaffery to the 49ers. I didn't hear what Carolina got in return, and I'm too lazy to look it up. 

They got 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounder for 2023 cand a 5th rounder for 2024.

I'm shocked they didn't get a 1st rounder. 

[Grrarrggh]

2 hours ago, roamyn said:

They got 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounder for 2023 cand a 5th rounder for 2024.

I'm shocked they didn't get a 1st rounder. 

I don't think they should have tried for a 1st rounder. There was a fascinating paper a while ago that analyzed every 1st round pick for a while. The long and short of it was that most of the picks weren't worth it. Much better to build a team with later picks.

[Carey]

4 hours ago, Grrarrggh said:

7 hours ago, roamyn said:

They got 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounder for 2023 cand a 5th rounder for 2024.

I'm shocked they didn't get a 1st rounder. 

I don't think they should have tried for a 1st rounder. There was a fascinating paper a while ago that analyzed every 1st round pick for a while. The long and short of it was that most of the picks weren't worth it. Much better to build a team with later picks.

Plus, the guy is hurt quite a bit.  When healthy, he can contribute.  So when people return from San Francisco, if the attendance is decent enough, the Niners are going to be a tough out.

As for Carolina, I imagine that they're going for Young/Stroud, which, IMO is the smart move

[DrSpaceman73]

Actually a good deal for carolina. 

The problem though is like all teams unless you have a legitimate qb it's hard to win no matter how good the rest of the team performs. Whole problem in carolina since cams best years. 

[merylinkid]

Apparently TNF was saving all the TDs for last night's game.

The McCaffrey trade was not really that lopsided.   It's a lot of picks for him but not an outrageous amount (Hello Herschel Walker trade).   When McCaffrey is healthy he is really really good, so he is worth giving up a more than normal amount of picks for just that.   But the 49ers didn't give up the store for him because he is injury prone.   Now it remains to be seen what Carolina does with those picks, as @DrSpaceman73 notes.   Dallas did a lot with their picks when they fleeced the Vikings.   If as rumored Jack Easterby (Pigskin Osteen) winds up in Carolina, I don't have a lot of hope for the future of the team.

[DrSpaceman73]

The other problem with the trade is its one carolina should have made already like last year or in the offseason. Probably could have got more. The trade rumors and ideas about him have been around a few years. 

[twoods]

Niners look pretty good with Samuels, McCaffrey and Kittle. That is if Jimmy G doesn’t screw up too much. 

[JTMacc99]

23 hours ago, bluegirl147 said:

I think some players are good because the team around them is good. I thought that about Eli Manning.   I don't think he would have led another team to two SBs.

And you would be wrong.

The 2007 Giants around Eli were a good offensive team and a mediocre defensive team, 17th overall.

Eli carried the atrocious 2011 Giants on his back to a championship. The were 32nd in rushing, DEAD LAST, and 25th overall defensively. They were 5th in the league in passing. There were exactly zero probably hall of famers other than Eli on the 2011 Giants.  Including the playoffs, Eli threw for almost 6,200 yards that year with a trash offensive line, two pretty good wide receivers, and no running game.

Nobody other than Eli would have lead that team to a championship that year.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, here's a bit of analysis from a group called Bruin Sports Analytics:

Quote

It is no secret that the Patriots are a repeat offender in Super Bowl victories over the past 20 years. Led by defensive-minded head coach Bill Belichick, with Tom Brady at quarterback, it is unclear whether their defense or offense can be credited with their dominance. In order to answer this question, we will take a look at all six Patriots’ Super Bowl wins in the Tom Brady, Bill Belichick era. The Patriots have an average offensive ranking of 5.5 in their six championship seasons, with an average defensive ranking of 4.3. However, with a p-value of 0.54, we are unable to conclude from this data whether the Patriots’ offense or defense deserves more credit for their six Super Bowl titles.

Statistically speaking, these guys are saying it's hard to figure if Tom Brady was that important to his team, given that he also had awesome defenses on all six of his championship teams.

NOBODY in their right mind would say that about Eli's two championships. 

[Perfect Xero]

[Moose135]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:37 PM, estellasmum said:

You aren't alone in thinking that. He was voted "most overrated player" by his fellow NFL athletes several times. I may like to bring that fact up whenever I can. 

How many of those 'fellow NFL athletes' were two-time Super Bowl MVPs?

[Xeliou66]

1 minute ago, Moose135 said:

How many of those 'fellow NFL athletes' were two-time Super Bowl MVPs?

I don’t think Eli Manning is overrated or underrated - he was a good QB, very good but not elite. And let’s face it, the Giants got very lucky to win it all in 2007, they didn’t have a great team, they just got hot in the postseason and then won Super Bowl 42 largely because of a fluke play. In 2011 I agree Eli did do a great job leading the Giants to the championship and he played very well in Super Bowl 46, outplaying Tom Brady. But I don’t consider Eli to be overrated and I agree he was a crucial part of the 2 Giants Super Bowl winning teams in 2007 and 2011, but I don’t consider him elite. 

[roamyn]

17 hours ago, Carey said:

As for Carolina, I imagine that they're going for Young/Stroud, which, IMO is the smart move

Not without an offensive line. 

Just look at the Browns pre 2018.  Revolving door of QBs for 20 years, because they never focused on the OL.

[cambridgeguy]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:37 PM, estellasmum said:

You aren't alone in thinking that. He was voted "most overrated player" by his fellow NFL athletes several times. I may like to bring that fact up whenever I can

You should bring it up when he's elected to the HOF.  He's probably not getting in on the first ballot, but he is getting in.

[meowmommy]

3 hours ago, cambridgeguy said:

You should bring it up when he's elected to the HOF.  He's probably not getting in on the first ballot, but he is getting in.

As I've said, I've been bleeding Big Blue for over half a century, and I totally appreciate everything Eli did during those two Super Bowl runs, but if he gets in, the HoF will have completed its transition to the Hall of Reasonably Good.

[DrSpaceman73]

Eli is probably getting in but I agree doesn't really belong. He's a good player on a team with two great superbowl runs. 

And I like Eli. Certainly glad they beat pats twice. 

Overall career though there is only once or twice where he was even say a top five league qb 

But for qbs suoerbowl wins are #1 stat. Pretty sure every two time superbowl winning qb is in the HOF. You ever look at Bob grieses numbers for the Dolphins?  Yes I know different Era but still. Many games he completed less than 10 passes

[merylinkid]

Eli is getting in to the HOF for one reason -- his last name.   If he were Eli Schicklegruber, he would have less of a chance, even with two Super Bowl wins.

[cambridgeguy]

1 hour ago, DrSpaceman73 said:

But for qbs suoerbowl wins are #1 stat. Pretty sure every two time superbowl winning qb is in the HOF. You ever look at Bob grieses numbers for the Dolphins?  Yes I know different Era but still. Many games he completed less than 10 passes

You don't even need two if you're famous enough.  Joe Namath threw more interceptions than TDs but he's in. 

[merylinkid]

Dan Faust is in and he never even made it to a Super Bowl.    Favre only had 1 SB win.   Archie Manning is in and I don't think he even sniffed the post season.   

[DrSpaceman73]

19 minutes ago, merylinkid said:

Dan Faust is in and he never even made it to a Super Bowl.    Favre only had 1 SB win.   Archie Manning is in and I don't think he even sniffed the post season.   

Archie Manning is not in the pro hall of fame 

I'm not saying you can't get in without two superbowl wins.  I'm saying everyone who has won two superbowls as a qb has made it. None of them have been left out so far.... except jim plunkett.  

I should say two superbowls as a starting qb in the playoffs. Some have some back up wins.  McMahon actually won a second with the packers as back.  Phil simms one as a starter and one as back up in the playoffs to Hostetter after playing most ofvthe regular season. Debatable how you grade that one. 

Edited October 22, 2022 by DrSpaceman73

[Carey]

I hope I'm wrong, but whoever is making the decisions on who to put into Canton is waiting for the start of the first Hall of Fame process following Plunkett's death.  Then they'll rip on those that think that by pointing out his numbers without addressing how those numbers differ from the aftermath of Jim's exit from the game to when he gets posthumously enshrined

[Fukui San]

8 hours ago, cambridgeguy said:

You should bring it up when he's elected to the HOF.  He's probably not getting in on the first ballot, but he is getting in.

If it’s the year after Julian Edelman gets in I’m fine with it. 

[DrSpaceman73]

6 minutes ago, Fukui San said:

If it’s the year after Julian Edelman gets in I’m fine with it. 

Julian Edelman doesn't belong anywhere near the Hall of fame

At least with Eli it's arguable. 

[Fukui San]

1 hour ago, DrSpaceman73 said:

Julian Edelman doesn't belong anywhere near the Hall of fame

At least with Eli it's arguable. 

Then it’s settled. Neither get in. Since Edelman was a better WR than Eli was a QB. 

[meowmommy]

4 hours ago, merylinkid said:

Archie Manning is in and I don't think he even sniffed the post season. 

Archie is in the College Football HoF.

I'm getting deja vu because I think we had this exact same discussion about Eli about six months or a year ago.  Complete with the vote for Julian Edelman.

[merylinkid]

Also probably complete with me saying Archie is in the Pro HOF.   Because I keep thinking he is.  

[Danielg342]

15 hours ago, meowmommy said:

As I've said, I've been bleeding Big Blue for over half a century, and I totally appreciate everything Eli did during those two Super Bowl runs, but if he gets in, the HoF will have completed its transition to the Hall of Reasonably Good.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame- like every other Hall of Fame in existence- is already the "Hall of the Reasonably Good". Every Hall has a good handful of players who had good careers but were never "the best" at their position, some of whom you wonder why they even got there in the first place.

As for Eli Manning, make of this what you will, but Pro Football Reference's Hall of Fame Monitor ranks Eli ahead of eight Hall of Famers- Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Sunny Jurgensen, Bob Griese, Warren Moon, Len Dawson, Troy Aikman and Jim Kelly. Everyone ranked ahead of Eli is already in the Hall or aren't yet eligible for selection to the Hall (like Drew Brees and Tom Brady). Just based on this metric alone, Eli has a strong case for the Hall of Fame, and he's no marginal case.

Yeah, what Eli has accomplished pales in comparison to what his more celebrated brother has done, but Peyton Manning isn't the standard Eli has to meet. If people like Stabler and Aikman can get in, I think Eli can too.

[cambridgeguy]

5 hours ago, Danielg342 said:

Everyone ranked ahead of Eli is already in the Hall or aren't yet eligible for selection to the Hall (like Drew Brees and Tom Brady).

Two of the guys ahead of him are Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan.  If we assume Ryan doesn't win a SB then those cases are going to be hilarious.  How much does regular season longevity matter without the playoff resume?  Are they both the Dan Fouts of their generation?

[DrSpaceman73]

33 minutes ago, cambridgeguy said:

Two of the guys ahead of him are Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan.  If we assume Ryan doesn't win a SB then those cases are going to be hilarious.  How much does regular season longevity matter without the playoff resume?  Are they both the Dan Fouts of their generation?

Neither one of those guys should get in. If you take away the two superbowls ryan rivers snd Eli are all very similar. 

Russell Wilson as well is playing himself out of the hall of fame right now. Which is why we shouldn't rate guys too early.  You never know what happens. after 5 years he seemed like a shoo in hall of famer......now in Denver looks to be one of the worst trade busts in history.  

I personally think though out of the three major HOFs the NFL does it the best. Yes there are a few in that shouldn't be but not many.  Even Joe Namath, I know his career stats and overall mediocrity but if you read his biography I think he belongs. He was instrumental in the afl nfl merger and for a short period of time was the best qb in the league, before his injuries. 

Baseball hall if you play long enough and get enough stats you're in, more a lifetime achievement award. And basketball its just one hall of fame not pro or college separate which is odd. 

[Carey]

18 hours ago, meowmommy said:

I'm getting deja vu because I think we had this exact same discussion about Eli about six months or a year ago.  Complete with the vote for Julian Edelman.

Count me in in the "I'm getting deja vu" category.  I totally remember this conversation.  For the most part.  Can't recall off the top of my head who I was "debating" with RE: Edelman vs Eli for HOF first dibs.  Looking forward to next spring to discuss Archie's make-believe HOF career!

8 hours ago, Danielg342 said:

If people like Stabler and Aikman can get in, I think Eli can too.

I guess we'll know in 2025.  FWIW, Stabler would not be in if he were still alive, and one of the things that helped Aikman was the logo on the side of his helmet.

Until I checked the 2025 eligible candidates, I figured that what may help Eli get in were the lack of decent HOF candidates that will be eligible in the 2025 class.  There were actually some decent candidates.  Plus, people that just miss out in 2024 will make those 2025 finalists sweat a little.  Maybe if they expanded the number of people per year, or even lessened the wait time by a year or 2.  I doubt it right now; the HOF hasn't even made an exception for people like Brady & Belichick yet

[DrSpaceman73]

Eli won't get in right away. But will how how far he makes it in a few years when first eligible. 

I don't see them changing the eligibility rules. Nor should they. 

[merylinkid]

48 minutes ago, Carey said:

one of the things that helped Aikman was the logo on the side of his helmet.

Aikman won 3 Super Bowls if we are saying Super Bowls are an important criteria.   he was part of the original triplets (Manning's colts took over that name later on) that absolutely dominated the League in the 90s.   It wasn't the Star, it was what he did on the field.

[Carey]

1 minute ago, merylinkid said:

Aikman won 3 Super Bowls if we are saying Super Bowls are an important criteria.   he was part of the original triplets (Manning's colts took over that name later on) that absolutely dominated the League in the 90s.   It wasn't the Star, it was what he did on the field.

That was a joke.  Though technically it wasn't, since I did say one of the things that helped Aikman was the logo on the side of his helmet.  FWIW, there's another guy from the Bay Area that spent half a decade at Michigan.  Somehow, there is a four-year period where, within that period, he surpassed everything Troy did in the Hall of Famer's entire career.

That being said, Aikman absolutely was dominant & a great leader who deserved to get into Canton (and on the 1st ballot).  I don't think he was better than people like Young and Favre, though more accomplished.  However, he was good enough.  People will argue he had a great RB & WR along with an offensive line and now HOF coach in Jimmy.  While I agree with that, he was a big part of a Cowboys turn around from nothing to something.  That Super Bowl 27 performance was a nice performance, which followed a road game against an elite Niners team to close out the 1992 season.

The point there is if someone had done what Troy did, but in a different uniform, it's possible they get snubbed (not forever, but to start their HOF chances).

32 minutes ago, DrSpaceman73 said:

I don't see them changing the eligibility rules. Nor should they. 

While it would be nice to change it or modify it a little, I'd be okay if they didn't.  What I don't want to see is a last minute change in the aftermath of something that would call for it.  In other words, if Belichick died before he retired, it still should be five years after his last game.  Not 1 year, because they wouldn't expedite it in other circumstances

[Carey]

Week 7 picks, which include Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, both New York teams, Tennessee, Washington, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, and Chicago, are predictions from yours truly attempting to go O-fer since, well, it's been anything but accurate this season

Line Predictions (Big Games):

Dallas is favored over Detroit by 7. Over/Under is 48.5

Kansas City is favored over San Francisco by 1.5. Over/Under is 48.5

Miami is favored over Pittsburgh by 7.5. Over/Under is 44.5

New England is favored over Chicago by 7.5. Over/Under is 40.5

Save for the 49ers, these are some big spreads.  I think all underdogs will cover, with the Niners winning outright.  This time, I know the Chiefs are the slight favorites.  The 5 time Super Bowl champions, in addition of getting CMC, are getting a ton of people back.  Who knows what Pittsburgh defense will show up.  The offense for Miami is very good, but their defense isn't elite.  The Steelers can and will have to score to win outright.  Not sure who's at QB for New England; wouldn't bet my life on the Bears to crush the Patriots like it's Super Bowl XX, but they could pull off the upset if all goes well.

Under hits for Cowboys/Lions & Chiefs/Niners, while the over hits for Patriots/Bears & Dolphins/Steelers

Edited October 23, 2022 by Carey
Big Game Lines

[Magog]

39 minutes ago, Carey said:

Dallas is favored over Detroit by 7. Over/Under is 48.5

Maybe we will get lucky & the Lions will find a way to win the game today. 

Quote

But whoever is listing Jacksonville as the favorite in this game needs to step away from the crack pipe. 

You never know. I'll give the Jaguars a punchers chance today.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Magog

[Xeliou66]

Early games are underway -

Bengals go up 7-0 on the Falcons on a long Burrow to Boyd TD pass.

Browns drive it down and score on the Ravens on their first drive, 7-0.

Giants up 7-0 on Jags. 

[Carey]

Not a bad start thus far.  Ravens had to settle for 3 following to make it 7-3, and Cincy is close to doubling up Atlanta

[Lamb18]

10 minutes ago, Xeliou66 said:

Early games are underway -

Bengals go up 7-0 on the Falcons on a long Burrow to Boyd TD pass.

Browns drive it down and score on the Ravens on their first drive, 7-0.

Giants up 7-0 on Jags. 

Doing OK on 2 out of 3. I picked Jaguars but not because of a crack pipe. I picked the team whose win is more beneficial to the Vikings.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Lamb18