2016 Awards Season

[BW Manilowe]

Now, at least as of yesterday, after posting the original "Chris Rock's rewriting his part of the Oscars" article link, his Publicist is DENYING that's what's happening.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/chris-rocks-rep-shuts-down-858985

[vb68]

I understand thee history with the PGA and how closely it fortells  Best Picture, but this feels like a crazy year to me.  Best Picture really feels like a jump ball to me. I didn't see The Big Short breaking this late at all, so that win surprised me.  I'm definitely interested to see which film wins the SAG Ensemble award.

Edited January 27, 2016 by vb68

[SeanC]

I understand thee history with the PGA and how closely it fortells  Best Picture, but this feels like a crazy year to me.  Best Picture really feels like a jump ball to me. I didn't see The Big Short breaking this late at all, so that win surprised me.  I'm definitely interested to see which film wins the SAG Ensemble award.

Yeah, I wouldn't call The Big Short anything like a sure thing yet.  Its nomination tally is extremely small, for one thing.

Edited January 27, 2016 by SeanC

[SeanC]

SAG reactions:

 

- Spotlight lives to fight another day with its Ensemble win.  If it had lost that, it would have been completely out of the running.

- Leo and Brie are locked in now.

- Elba's win will no doubt inspire another wave of thinkpieces (he makes history as the first SAG film award winner to not get an Oscar nomination).

- I think Vikander can now be considered at least a mild favourite in her category.  She's got a bunch of films this year, including two films that earned notable Oscar nominations, and has built a solid rep.  I don't think Winslet has the career momentum for a second Oscar at the moment (which didn't stop Hillary Swank or Christoph Waltz, admittedly, but they were in films with more momentum), and while Mara's film has a high nomination tally, as yet there's no sign of a big groundswell to reward the film by voting for her.

[absnow54]

So with Alicia Vikander and Idris Elba taking home the supporting awards at the SAGs, I'd say that Vikander and Stallone are near locks for the Oscars since Bale and Rylance were the only nominees who could have slowed his momentum. Brie Larson and Leonardo DiCaprio have the leading categories in the bag. I still think that Spotlight has the edge for Best Picture, but that seems like the most up in the air of the big categories (along with Best Director.)

[SeanC]

Best Director will be effectively nailed down by the DGA, but if Miller wins that (which I'm really feeling is likely at this point), that will leave Best Picture as total jump ball.

 

I'm trying to think of what categories will serve as effective bellwethers at the ceremony.  Adapted Screenplay will be the big one, I think; if The Big Short can't win that, no way does it win Picture.  That's also true of Spotlight in Original Screenplay, but it should win that regardless of whether it wins Picture.

[Ruby25]

I'm sticking with The Big Short because of the PGA. The SAG winner has about a 50/50 record of matching Oscar, and the PGA uses the same ballot Oscar does. But DGA is the next big one now, we have to see who wins there.

 

I think the acting winners are locked though.

[thuganomics85]

Yep, I think DiCaprio and Brie Larson are locks now, and I will be stunned if it goes another way.  I'm a bit more unsure about supporting, but I do think Vikander has the edge now, and Elba winning the SAG but not even nominated for the Oscar, leaves that category up in the air, and I do think Stallone might have the edge, unless either Mark Ruffalo or Tom Hardy suddenly start gaining ground.

 

Have no clue what to make of Best Picture, except it probably is down to Spotlight and The Big Short.  Probably will wait for the DGAs.  If one of the directors in those two films pulls off a win over the front-runners (Miller and Innartu), it could be game-changer.

Edited January 31, 2016 by thuganomics85

[Ms Blue Jay]

So completely happy for Elba and just wow at the SAG winners, I'm glad I taped the show and I will be watching.

[AshleyN]

I'm now hoping that Miller wins the DGA and Carol takes the BAFTA (as unlikely as that is), just because it would mean that each of the most important precursors went to a different movie. Has that ever happened before? Also, it would leave Best Picture as up in the air as possible heading into Oscar night, which would be especially fun given that, as has been pointed out, the two lead acting categories appear to be locked up.

[Slade347]

Watch the DGA go with Scott just to mess with us.

[Trini]

To help you fill out your Oscars ballot, VES Award winners. The Revenant and it's bear attack got three.

[SeanC]

Well, it's the night of the DGA Awards, where the winner of Best Director can be determined with 89.2% probability (and three of the seven misses occurred in years where the Oscar winner wasn't nominated for the DGA).

[scarynikki12]

The DGA website tells me that The Revenant just won for Feature Film.  So, I now have no idea who will win Best Picture.  Please be Spotlight, please be Spotlight!

[thuganomics85]

Bummed that this means George Miller's chances of winning Director are likely shot to hell, but I guess it would be interesting if Inarritu wins back-to-back Oscars.

Edited February 7, 2016 by thuganomics85

[vb68]

Jump ball for Best Picture.  We actually have some suspense, which is fun.

[Ms Blue Jay]

Just so I'm clear, there's like a 90% probability that Inarritu wins Best Director now?

[AshleyN]

Just so I'm clear, there's like a 90% probability that Inarritu wins Best Director now?

Probably, especially since he's most likely going to win the BAFTA (McKay is the only other Oscar nominee to get a BAFTA director nomination, plus he lost there to Linklater last year so there wouldn't be any potential qualms about awarding him back to back).

[Ruby25]

Interestingly, only John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz have ever won back to back directing Oscars, and neither of their films won Best Picture two years in a row. If The Revenant pulls that off it will be unprecedented.

[Rick Kitchen]

Entertainment Weekly's Oscar predictions:

 

Best Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Actress - Brie Larson

Best Supporting Actor - Sylvester Stallone

Best Supporting Actress - Alicia Vikander

Best Director - Alejandro G. Inarritu

Best Picture - The Big Short

Original Screenplay - Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay - The Big Short

Film Editing - Mad Max: Fury Road

Cinematography - The Revenant

Production Design - Mad Max: Fury Road

Costume Design - Carol

Makeup and Hairstyling - Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects - Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing - Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing - Mad Max: Fury Road

Original Score - The Hateful Eight

Original Song - "'Til It Happens to You", The Hunting Ground

Foreign Language - Son of Saul

Animated Feature - Inside Out

Animated Short - World of Tomorrow

Documentary Feature - Amy

Documentary Short - A Girl in the River

Live Action Short - Shok

[Dejana]

How Much Screen Time Did This Year’s Supporting Oscar Nominees Actually Have?

 

Ranked in both minutes and percentage of the movie's run time. Mara and Vikander are above the 60% mark. All of the Supporting Actor nominees are in less than half of their movies, though Stallone is at 49%. Still, I feel a combination of factors determines the lead/supporting line and think a rule about screen time to prevent category fraud would end up backfiring or having unintended consequences.

 

 

Secret ballot: Oscar insiders reveal their votes

Edited February 14, 2016 by Dejana

[thuganomics85]

 

Secret ballot: Oscar insiders reveal their votes

Always an interesting read, even if frustrating at times.  The one that stood out to me was The Producer more or less admitting that he is voting for Alicia Vikander not for The Danish Girl, but because he loved her in Ex Machina.  I wonder if stuff like that factors a lot into how voters cast their ballots.

 

Obviously, this is only a small sample, but it does seem that Leo and Stallone have got a love in the Academy this year. 

[SeanC]

Ranked in both minutes and percentage of the movie's run time. Mara and Vikander are above the 60% mark. None of the Supporting Actor nominees are in less than half of their movies, though Stallone is at 49%. Still, I feel a combination of factors determines the lead/supporting line and think a rule about screen time to prevent category fraud would end up backfiring or having unintended consequences.

I think you mean "more" than half of their movies.

 

I'm kind of surprised that Winslet's screentime in Steve Jobs isn't greater than that.  I mean, thinking about it now, he interacts with a few other people standalone, but Winslet's feels like a bigger presence.

 

Mara is in Carol more than Blanchett is.

Edited February 13, 2016 by SeanC

[SallyAlbright]

Yeah, that concept bothers me quite a bit. I definitely felt like Vikander was every bit a Lead Actress in The Danish Girl. She was onscreen more than Eddie, it felt. It was a lovely performance, but I will never buy that she should be winning in the category of Supporting Actress.

[SeanC]

BAFTAs:

 

Picture:  The Revenant

Director:  Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant)

Actor:  Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Actress:  Brie Larson (Room)

Supporting Actor:  Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Supporting Actress:  Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Adapted Screenplay:  The Big Short

Original Screenplay:  Spotlight

Editing:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Cinematography:  The Revenant

Production Design:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Makeup:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Original Score:  The Hateful Eight

Sound:  The Revenant

Special Effects:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Animated Feature:  Inside Out

Documentary Feature:  Amy

Foreign Language Film:  Wild Tales (wow, that's delayed)

 

- Gonzalez Inarritu looks on course to make history.

- It was already pretty clear that Larson is going to win, but that Ronan couldn't even win BAFTA (when Brooklyn won the prize for Best British Film) really shows the race is over.

- Stallone wasn't nominated at the BAFTAs, as with SAG, which makes him an Oscar frontrunner with atypically little support from the major precursors.

- Winslet is still in contention for the win, I think; Vikander was nominated here for Ex Machina, rather than The Danish Girl, whether that has any effect or not.

- The Revenant claims 5 prizes overall, and Mad Max gets 4.

[absnow54]

- Winslet is still in contention for the win, I think; Vikander was nominated here for Ex Machina, rather than The Danish Girl, whether that has any effect or not.

The race between Kate Winslet and Alicia Vikander is interesting because they've competed in the supporting category at every award show so far, but Kate has only bested Vikander's Ex Machina performance. I think Alicia Vikander is still the front runner for the Oscar, as she's been winning the supporting category whenever she's up for The Danish Girl, but I think the race between Winslet and Vikander is probably the closest for any of the acting categories. 

[Rick Kitchen]

Writer's Guild awards went to Spotlight and The Big Short.

[JBC344]

The race between Kate Winslet and Alicia Vikander is interesting because they've competed in the supporting category at every award show so far, but Kate has only bested Vikander's Ex Machina performance. I think Alicia Vikander is still the front runner for the Oscar, as she's been winning the supporting category whenever she's up for The Danish Girl, but I think the race between Winslet and Vikander is probably the closest for any of the acting categories. 

Well considering that Winslet's is an actual "supporting" role I can understand why she would beat the Ex Machina performance but not The Danish Girl one.  This does seem to be the wildcard award.  I think more people have probably seen The Danish Girl, than Steve Jobs, but will admit it is more of a leading role than supporting.  Should be interesting.

[Ruby25]

Yeah, I'm not sure about that one either. Vikander is kind of the It Girl of last year, but it's mostly a critics thing, because the public has no idea who she is. I think both The Danish Girl and Steve Jobs were about equally seen, neither movie is beloved by the Academy. Kate Winslet is well known and already has an Oscar, but she's a respected actress they surely wouldn't have any problem giving another one to.

 

I know Vikander won SAG, but I'm still torn on that one.

[SeanC]

Steve Jobs has about twice The Danish Girl's North American box office, but in terms of which was more widely seen, everybody voting gets screeners so that may not matter.  Neither film has generated much heat on its own, so that leaves the winner to be determined by other factors.

Edited February 16, 2016 by SeanC

[vibeology]

I think what Vikander has going for her is the "sense" that she's having a moment. She's been praised for The Danish Girl and Ex Machina. She's killing it on the Red Carpets and all of that helps build up the myth of Alicia as the breakout star of 2015.

 

Because while its not supposed to matter, the off-screen stuff counts. Look at the secret ballots every year and its very clear that people cast their votes based on more than what they see on screen and Alicia is having a great year off-screen as well as on. What Kate has going for her is the bestie show with her and Leo at every awards show. They've been adorable together, cheering for each other but I don't think its enough to overcome two hypes performances from Vikander.

[JBC344]

I think what Vikander has going for her is the "sense" that she's having a moment. She's been praised for The Danish Girl and Ex Machina. She's killing it on the Red Carpets and all of that helps build up the myth of Alicia as the breakout star of 2015.

 

Because while its not supposed to matter, the off-screen stuff counts. Look at the secret ballots every year and its very clear that people cast their votes based on more than what they see on screen and Alicia is having a great year off-screen as well as on. What Kate has going for her is the bestie show with her and Leo at every awards show. They've been adorable together, cheering for each other but I don't think its enough to overcome two hypes performances from Vikander.

I agree.  I would love to see Winslet get it just because she was really outstanding in Jobs and IMO the best thing about the movie.  I'm not counting her out but I think that Alicia has a slight edge because of the two great performances she has had this year in addition to The Danish Girl being more of a lead performance.  I'm not counting Kate out, but I agree that Alicia is having a great run and "moment" that may carry her all the way to the stage.

[Dejana]

Leo's Red Carpet Rampage

[SeanC]

I saw The Danish Girl last night, meaning I've now seen 17 of the 20 nominated performances.  I won't get to see Carol (Blanchett/Mara) or 45 Years (Rampling) before the ceremony, so that's the end of the line as far as that's concerned.  Vikander is fantastic (by far the best thing about the movie), and also definitely a lead performance (borderline the lead performance).  Not quite at Hailee Steinfeld levels of category fraud, but the rung below.

[methodwriter85]

God, I still think it's bullshit that Timothy Hutton had to pretend he was a supporting character to even have a shot at getting the Oscar for Ordinary People.

 

Honestly though, they should have just gone for lead. This was a toss-up year anyway, once people realized that Joy sucked as a movie.

Edited February 20, 2016 by methodwriter85

[JBC344]

In terms of getting Alicia an award best supporting is her best shot.  She could/should of been in lead but there was no way she would of won against Brie or Saorsie Ronan. 

[topanga]

Now, at least as of yesterday, after posting the original "Chris Rock's rewriting his part of the Oscars" article link, his Publicist is DENYING that's what's happening.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/chris-rocks-rep-shuts-down-858985

I love Chris Rock and his social commentary disguised as comedy, but I think too much pressure is being placed on him to deliver an "I Have a Dream" speech about diversity in Hollywood. Some people will be disappointed that he didn't take a strong enough stand. And other people will think he's joining Beyonce to resurrect the Black Panther Party. 

 

That said, I plan to watch the Oscars only for his monologue, and I'll check in with you guys the next day to find out what else happened. 

[scarynikki12]

I figured he wasn't rewriting his opening bit because it already included commentary on minorities and Oscar noms. We'll find out Sunday.

[raezen]

That said, I plan to watch the Oscars only for his monologue, and I'll check in with you guys the next day to find out what else happened.

I have the best of intentions to youtube his monologue the next day. And that's about it.

[Rick Kitchen]

Razzie Awards:

 

Worst Picture: TIE: Fifty Shades of Grey, Fantastic Four

 

Fifty Shades also "won" for Worst Actor (Jamie Dornan), Worst Actress (Dakota Fanning), Worst Onscreen Duo, and Worst Screenplay.

 

Fantastic Four "won" for Worst Remake and Worst Director (Josh Trank)

 

Eddie Redmayne won for Worst Supporting Actor (Jupiter Ascending)

 

Kaley Cuocco won for Worst Supporting Actress for Alvin & The Chipmunks: Road Chip and The Wedding Ringer

 

Sylvester Stallone won the Razzie Redeemer Award for a former Razzie winner who has had a good year.

Edited February 28, 2016 by Rick Kitchen

[BW Manilowe]

From Deadline.com, here's the Winners List from the Independent Spirit Awards, held Saturday in LA:

http://deadline.com/2016/02/spirit-awards-2016-winners-list-1201710410/

[shang yiet]

Timothy Hutton was only 19 so he probably wouldn't have won if he had gone up for lead. Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain was bumped down to supporting even though he was more of a co-lead to Heath Ledger. There was no room for two Brokeback actors in the lead category.

[SeanC]

Thoughts on the categories (less the shorts, which I haven't watched):

 

Picture
Will Win:  The Revenant
Should Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road

 

I'm 8 for 8 with the nomination films.  Of the three films that seem in contention to win, The Revenant ranks below Spotlight for me, but ahead of The Big Short.

 

Director
Will Win:  Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Should Win:  George Miller

 

I'm 5 for 5 here.  Miller is, for me, well ahead of everybody else in terms of bringing vision and directorial style to the material.  My second choice would be Lenny Abrahamson, for the degree of difficulty in executing a film set inside a single room for half its running time and hanging so much on a child actor.

 

Actor
Will Win:  Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win:  Michael Fassbender

 

5 for 5 in this category. Leo would be my second choice here, so I'm fine with him winning.

 

Actress
Will & Should Win:  Brie Larson

 

3 for 5 in this category, missing Blanchett and Rampling.

 

Supporting Actor
Will & Should Win:  Sylvester Stallone

 

5 for 5 in this category, with Stallone way ahead of any of the other nominees.  Ruffalo would be my second choice.

 

Supporting Actress
Will Win:  Alicia Vikander
Should Win:  Kate Winslet

 

4 out of 5 in this category, missing Mara.  Vikander would rate second in my ranking of the four performances I've seen (by far the best thing about her film); I'd have considered her for first place if not for her placement in Supporting Actress being colossal category fraud.

 

Original Screenplay
Will Win:  Spotlight
Should Win:  Inside Out

 

4 out of 5 in this category, missing Straight Outta Compton.  For my will/should ranking, both of those films are in my Top 5 for 2015, so I'm fine with either.

 

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win:  The Big Short
Should Win:  Room

 

4 out of 5 in this category, missing Carol.  Among the so-called Big 8 categories, this one has probably the biggest gap between my personal preference and the presumptive winner, though I liked The Big Short overall.  Donoghue's work adapting her own novel was fantastic.

 

Editing
Will & Should Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road

 

5 for 5 in this category.  Lots of great work here.  If Miller can't win, well, at least his wife may.

 

Cinematography
Will & Should Win:  The Revenant

 

4 for 5 in this category, missing Carol.  Emmanuel Lubezki wins for the third year in a row; I agree with two of those three, the exception being last year's win for Birdman.

 

Production Design
Will & Should Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road

 

5 for 5 in this category.  This was a tough one to call, as neither of the Best Picture heavies nominated are what would be called typical winners (not much set indoors in either film; The Revenant would be winning primarily on the basis of location scouting).

 

Costume Design
Will Win:  Carol
Should Win:  Cinderella

 

4 out of 5 in this category, missing Carol.  This was the hardest category for me to call; you can make a solid case for why all of the five nominee will win.  I'm betting on Carol winning, sight unseen, based on the prestige of Powell's involvement and it's a film with a lot of nominations where the costume design is a selling point.

 

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win:  The Revenant
Should Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road

 

2 out of 3, missing The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared.  Another tough category to call.  I went with The Revenant on the strength of Leo's wound makeup.

 

Original Score
Will Win:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should Win:  Sicario

 

4 out of 5, missing Carol (noticing a theme here?).

 

Original Song
Will Win:  "'Til It Happens To You"
Should Win:  "Earned It"

 

5 out of 5, since you can just listen to the songs.  In a classless move, the two songs not sung by major pop stars have been banished from the ceremony, also effectively narrowing down who people think can actually win.  Lady Gaga's song seems the probable winner, being about a serious topic in a respectable documentary, whereas The Weeknd's song is in Fifty Shades of Grey, and I expect that it will be difficult for a song from that film to muster a winning margin.

 

Sound Editing
Will & Should Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road

 

5 out of 5.

 

Sound Mixing
Will & Should Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road

 

5 out of 5.  The sounds categories inspire annual "what's the difference between them?" queries, much like the Song of the Year and Record of the Year categories at the Grammys.  Voters will distinguish between them (musicals are a virtual certainty to win Mixing), but Mad Max is the sort of technical triumph that seems a strong bet to win both. 

 

Visual Effects
Will & Should Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road

 

5 out of 5.  Ex Machina's nomination here for its low-budget, high-quality CGI is one of my favourite nominations in recent years, but Mad Max's flawless blend of practical effects, stunt work, and CGI takes my personal prize.  A lot of people are predicting that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will win and break the four decade trend that no film with a Best Picture nomination has ever lost it to a film without one, but I'm betting that record holds, much like it did with both of the recent Planet of the Apes films.

 

Foreign Language Film
Will Win:  Son of Saul
Should Win:  Mustang

 

2 out of 5, missing the three films not listed above (Theeb was actually in theatres here for two days, but I neglected to go see it).

 

Animated Film
Will & Should Win:  Inside Out

 

1 of 5, missing all but the film listed above.  Given how I feel about Pixar at its best, seeing the rest probably wouldn't affect my vote.

 

Documentary
Will Win:  Amy
Should Win:  Cartel Land

 

5 for 5 (a personal best for my in this category, and I managed it before the ceremony too).

Edited February 28, 2016 by SeanC

[Rick Kitchen]

 

 

Original Song

Will Win:  "'Til It Happens To You"

Should Win:  "Earned It"

5 out of 5, since you can just listen to the songs.  In a classless move, the two songs not sung by major pop stars have been banished from the ceremony, also effectively narrowing down who people think can actually win.  Lady Gaga's song seems the probable winner, being about a serious topic in a respectable documentary, whereas The Weeknd's song is in Fifty Shades of Grey, and I expect that it will be difficult for a song from that film to muster a winning margin.

 

I'm still surprised and disappointed that "See You Again" from Furious 7 wasn't nominated.

[Shannon L.]

 

5 for 5 in this category, with Stallone way ahead of any of the other nominees.  Ruffalo would be my second choice.

If Stallone is the only one of my favorites to win, then I'll go to bed happy, but if Ruffalo wins, I'd definitely be ok with it.

[Babalu]

I have the best of intentions to youtube his monologue the next day. And that's about it.

It's already up - saw it via a FB post, and it's really good. I'm not planning to watch the rest of the awards, either, but the monologue was good.

[Parachutes]

It's already up - saw it via a FB post, and it's really good. I'm not planning to watch the rest of the awards, either, but the monologue was good.

 

Nah, the first half of his monologue was so ridiculous and pandering that it pretty much canceled out all of the good (but previously and better stated (via Viola Davis and other black industry actors, directors, etc.) sentiments of the last half. He made way better points in his THR interview from months ago that this hosting gig, tonight.

[galax-arena]

Yeah, and then he made a joke about Asians being good at math and child labor later on. You're gonna (weakly) talk about Hollywood being racist and then make a joke like that? Nah. 

[SeanC]

With Margaret Sixel's win, she and George Miller join an elite group of married couples who both have competitive Oscars (he won Best Animated Feature for Happy Feet).  Others in the club (that I can think of):

 

- Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez

- Javier Bardem & Penelope Cruz

- Michael Douglas & Catherine Zeta-Jones

- Peter Jackson & Fran Walsh

- Angelina Jolie & Brad Pitt

- Vivien Leigh & Laurence Olivier

- Paul Newman & Joanne Woodward

Edited February 29, 2016 by SeanC

[vibeology]

Peter Jackson and Fran Walsh are there too and in their case for the same movie.