S45.E07: The Thorn in My Thumb

[Guest]

Just now, peachmangosteen said:

It seems I have almost the exact opposite opinion on everything this season.

I didn't give a flying fuck that Kaleb went. I grew more and more tired of him after initially liking him. 

I also don't see the overwhelming arrogance in Dee. I like her.

In general, I like every woman and none of the men lol. I guess Jake's OK but I will relish in seeing Bruce, Drew, and Austin get booted. I fear Austin is in for the long haul though.

Welcome to the opposite table.

I too worry about Austin sticking around for awhile. Someone commented that Kellie was boring, but I find Austin incredibly bland. Bruce and Drew are arrogant as hell (though I don't mind Drew quite as much as some) but at least they bring something to the table in terms of energy. Austin is just...there, only coming to life while talking about HIS SANDWICH. I really want Kellie to prevail in the "vote out the other advantage-holder" showdown that is coming.

[SummerDreams]

Kellie is such a bad player that the only reason the reba will target her will be because of Austin's amulet.

Bruce is the perfect person to bring to the final tribal council and it was stupid of Kellie and Kendra agreeing very emphatically that nobody would take Bruce to the end. It's exactly the opposite; Bruce is the Russell Hantz of this season. They want him there to get zero votes.

Belo doesn't exist anymore in my opinion. Two rebas and Bruce will be final three.

[peachmangosteen]

21 minutes ago, SummerDreams said:

Two rebas and Bruce will be final three.

This is what I fear, especially because it'll probably be Drew/Austin/Bruce and I hate all of them.

[Heathrowe]

Dee reminds of a girl in high school who used to kick soccer balls at my face during gym so…I don’t like her.

Emily was very quiet this episode. You could see her thinking - anyone but me!! I loved her and Kaleb as a team but I do think it’s important to play your own game. Will be interesting to see who she is able to connect with next week.

I like Austin. I like Jake. Kellie was not on my radar until this episode but she impressed me last night.

I don’t think Jakes plan would have worked, I don’t think Austin is scared, and I don’t blame Katurah for being put off by the late in the game secret sharing. She was feeling used. And when it fell through she’d have a big target on her because we see that Dee is an emotional player.

I really enjoy the show, it’s my guilty pleasure. Generally I’d say more is more but two tribals is too much. I was bored when the second one started and even though I liked Kaleb - I didn’t care over much by the time they voted. I did like Sifu abd was sad to see him go.

Bruce, yuck. Flush that idol and send him packing.
 

[Chicago Redshirt]

8 hours ago, 30 Helens said:

Coming in to this episode, my favorites were Kaleb, Emily and Katurah. As  the episode went on, I made room on the bench for Jake and Kellie. Then Emily started making nonsensical noises about dumping Kaleb, and she got pushed to the far end of the bench. Then Kaleb left, and Bruce didn’t, and nothing was right with the world. (Honestly, how was “Seafou” a bigger threat than Bruce? He possessed the same meat shield qualities, with only 1/10 of the jackassery.)

So I guess my dream team going into next week is Katurah, Jake, and Kellie. And maybe Emily, if she doesn’t make me push her right off the damn bench. You’re on thin ice, Lady.

Emily's noises about dumping Kaleb were far from nonsensical IMO. 11 people voted to kick him off (and Austin would have if he could have). He was saved by a lucky gimmick the once, and it was likely that people would turn to him as an obvious vote if he did not find an idol or win individual immunity, or have someone feel like it was time for a Big Move and volunteer an idol or advantage to get rid of someone else. He had alienated Bruce with little chance of repair. He had alienated Dee and Julie, again with little chance of repair. Any thinking person would realize that surviving the previous vote might make him a bigger threat than before, since he can say he was part of Survivor history, and he somehow got to the FTC.

There is very little benefit to Emily tying her fate to his. and a lot of risk. Of course, I don't see too many paths to FTC for Emily...figuring out which of the two tribes she can best align with and then either an immunity run or something? 

[Chicago Redshirt]

3 hours ago, JudyObscure said:

I hope Jake isn't a trial lawyer. If he misread a jury as bad as he did Katurah his client would be in big trouble.  Who thinks you can tell someone, "A group of us put on an act and lied to you and then laughed behind your back," and expects them to forgive all that?

Jake is a young assistant public defender, so presumably he does trials. And as in his job, in Survivor, sometimes you got to do the best with whatever hand you're dealt.

There was some chance that saying, "Hey, you're not as tight with your alliance as you thought, and yes, I was a part of bamboozling you, but I'm coming clean now, and you should trust me going forward, and consider that in your next steps" works.

Not a very good chance, mind you, but some chance.

[iMonrey]

11 hours ago, dancingdreamer said:

I like that  they split into teams, with added twists,  keeps it fresh.

There was never any real need to "freshen" Survivor. The original version was far from stale. Bringing in new people each season was enough. Changing locations helped too, so in that respect it did start to get a bit soft. But they have done too much to shake things up, and now nobody can actually play the game. You can Outlast, by sheer dumb luck, and maybe even Outplay, by going on an immunity run. But you cannot Outwit when the show is determined to sabotage your strategy at every turn.

At any rate, I fail to see how splitting the players into two groups after a merge keeps the game "fresh." They were split into tribes before the merge.  And split into two groups last week. It's hardly new. It's just a dumb gimmick designed to make the audience go "Oooooooh!"

2 hours ago, tracyscott76 said:

That's fair. I honestly think it would be hard to have all the challenges favor everyone, though.

If they keep re-using physical challenges, then yes, by design they will either favor men or women. But it doesn't have to be that way. They could do mental challenges but the show seems to have zero interest in that. They seem convinced the audience wants to see grueling, American Ninja Warrior-type shit. And to be fair there probably is a large contingency of the audience who enjoys that. I am just not among their numbers.

Edited November 9, 2023 by iMonrey

[Carey]

Even the mental challenges would give someone an edge over someone else

[Nashville]

48 minutes ago, Heathrowe said:

I don’t think Jakes plan would have worked, I don’t think Austin is scared

Under normal circumstances, maybe not - but keep in mind Austin had a fully functional HII in his pocket which he would NOT have had the opportunity to deploy had they gone to a rock draw.  Do you think  Austin wouldn’t be concerned about being sent down the Path Of Shame with an idol in his pocket?

48 minutes ago, Heathrowe said:

and I don’t blame Katurah for being put off by the late in the game secret sharing. She was feeling used.

Even so, that’s Katurah making a game move based on emotion/spite, not strategy - not a good indicator for her going forward in the game.

[SummerDreams]

46 minutes ago, Nashville said:

Even so, that’s Katurah making a game move based on emotion/spite, not strategy - not a good indicator for her going forward in the game.

I don't agree. Katurah knew with the reveal of this secret that she was last in her belo tribe and she gave up on that certainty in the hopes of maybe integrating the reba alliance in the future. Plus she had every right to not risk going to rocks for Kaleb who by then was someone everyone wanted out. I mean, even if the secret was not revealed to her, we don't know if she would risk going to rocks.

[Nashville]

1 hour ago, iMonrey said:

If they keep re-using physical challenges, then yes, by design they will either favor men or women. But it doesn't have to be that way. They could do mental challenges but the show seems to have zero interest in that.

You mean, like - puzzles?  😁

1 hour ago, iMonrey said:

They seem convinced the audience wants to see grueling, American Ninja Warrior-type shit. And to be fair there probably is a large contingency of the audience who enjoys that. I am just not among their numbers.

Well, let’s be fair now - if all they’re going to do is tiddlywinks challenges, they hardly need to travel to Fiji for THAT.

[bankerchick]

5 hours ago, SummerDreams said:

What's with Dee' s lips? Too much silicone for my taste. And her behavior continues to be bitchy. I really dislike her.

As someone prone to coldsores and sun blisters (dealing with one right now) it looked to me like Dee had a couple of blisters on her lips.

I agree with your characterization of her as bitchy.  She seems to get something in her head and there is no dissuading her from it, like imagining Sifu had an idol.  Where did she get that idea?  Who knows, but woe betide anyone trying to change her mind.  And as someone said earlier, she seems to think that since she won immunity, everyone has to listen to her.

[Kenzie]

5 hours ago, seacliffsal said:

It is always so entertaining to me when those who think they know how to run the game (hello Dee) finally realize that others are also playing the game. 

It's amusing how many players through the years have been legends only in their minds.

The only two players that I can think of who were actually running the show quietly behind the scene were Richard from Borneo and Brian Heidik (who I disliked) from Thailand.

Brian said in an interview that every night at bedtime he would run not only his best options and next moves, but the best moves for everyone else so he could cut them off at the pass.

[IdEatThat]

I’ve watched every episode of every season of this show.   I’ve come to the realization that the “new era”  just doesn’t do it for me.   The shorter season and the three tribe start means that I never really get invested in any of the players.  I’m sure that two months from now I’ll be hard pressed to name a single cast member.  None of them is memorable in any way.

I miss the old challenges where they ate weird stuff and had auctions for food or things.   These didn’t rely on bodily strength.

I am grateful that there’s l been little  talk of “resume building”  this season.

I’m team Emily.

[PaperTree]

That was disappointing, but not surprising.  They should have done a better job flushing Bruce's idol, but as others have noted, he's a perfect goat for FTC, zero votes.

I'm sorry, I'm not feeling the Austin love.

Mr. 27 Advantages smarmy smugness has bugged me for awhile.  I don't care how cute he is.

[HurricaneVal]

It could be the editing, but I thought Sifu had calmed down quite a bit in this last episode, and was quite likeable.  Too bad he was voted out, I thought he was interesting.

Man, I wonder if Kaleb had been playing under the old Survivor schedule if that extra day might have allowed him to turn the tide and stay longer.  Eh, probably not, the prior vote was unanimous against him.  That's a lot to come back from.  At least it was a unanimous vote because he is a huge threat socially and physically.  He can take some comfort in that. 

Actually, I think Kaleb would have done better on Big Brother.  His laid back, sunny, but earnest style would probably have him winning that game!

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, bankerchick said:

I agree with your characterization of her as bitchy.  She seems to get something in her head and there is no dissuading her from it, like imagining Sifu had an idol.  Where did she get that idea?  Who knows, but woe betide anyone trying to change her mind.  And as someone said earlier, she seems to think that since she won immunity, everyone has to listen to her.

I believe it was J who first brought that up on the revamped Reba tribe (i.e. her, Dee, Julie, Sifu, and Sean). But somehow everyone on Reba seemed to believe that. Drew (who was not on revamped Reba) essentially took it for granted in this episode that Sifu had an idol. Where this idea came from since they all (sans J) knew that Austin already had the Reba idol I couldn't tell you, but Dee is not alone in that notion. But she went against Our Hero Kaleb, the Only Reason to Watch, so she gets all the blame, I guess.

[SummerDreams]

1 hour ago, bankerchick said:

imagining Sifu had an idol.  Where did she get that idea? 

To be fair, Sifu had made a fake idol and he told Dee that he had an idol. Of course she should have known that this couldn't be true because Austin had the original Reba idol but still, one can never know with all these idols and advantages.

Edited November 9, 2023 by SummerDreams

[jsm1125]

The continuation of original Reba thinking that Sifu could have an idol is baffling to me. Sifu has never left Reba’s camp, and Austin, Dee, Drew and Julie know that Austin has the initial Reba idol!

Err, Jake, Austin would be the least likely to be scared in a rock draw. He probably knows that he only has a 1/3 shot of getting rocked out, while Jake and Katurah would have a 2/3 shot.

Something was off with Sifu’s edit this entire season. We had no sense of who he thought he was aligned with or what his plans were the whole time?  

[Gummo]

Dee did not give the credit for her win to her great strength, her indomitable spirit or her faith in God.

No, she credited her freakishly long toes.

I gotta love her a little for that!

[eel2178]

1 hour ago, IdEatThat said:

I miss the old challenges where they ate weird stuff and had auctions for food or things. 

Also, challenges that actually had something to do with survival if you were stranded on an island such as signaling a plane or rescuing a skydiver like they did in Season 1.

[Chicago Redshirt]

3 hours ago, iMonrey said:

There was never any real need to "freshen" Survivor. The original version was far from stale. Bringing in new people each season was enough. Changing locations helped too, so in that respect it did start to get a bit soft. But they have done too much to shake things up, and now nobody can actually play the game. You can Outlast, by sheer dumb luck, and maybe even Outplay, by going on an immunity run. But you cannot Outwit when the show is determined to sabotage your strategy at every turn.

At any rate, I fail to see how splitting the players into two groups after a merge keeps the game "fresh." They were split into tribes before the merge.  And split into two groups last week. It's hardly new. It's just a dumb gimmick designed to make the audience go "Oooooooh!"

Dumb gimmick, maybe. But doing the two-random tribe split, two TCs at this point shakes things up in a couple ways:

1. By having two immunity winners, it increases the possibility that a disfavored person like Kaleb can go a little further. Instead of outplaying 10 people, he only had to outplay 4.

2. It (sometimes) forces people to have to scramble who would otherwise be safe. If you have 4 decent allies, you can rest (relatively) easy that you wouldn't be voted out at 10 or 11. (Or at least, that you will have enough time to do damage control). It is much harder to survive being one of five eligible for elimination than one of 10-11. Even if you are in the majority overall, you may not have any/many allies on your mini-tribe.

3. It sometimes allows for an increased possibility of safety. If there was a tribal council with all players, there seemingly would be no way for Kaleb to survive minus immunity. The split meant a small chance that Boston Not-Rob could have pulled off his scheme to try and protect Kaleb. Even though you're down (say) 5-4-2 overall, on the mini-tribe, you might have the numbers 4-1-1 or something. 

4. At least in theory, twice the Tribal Councils may mean an uptick in all the idol/advantage play or (preferably from my perspective) pocket idols. There would have been little chance to blindside Bruce with 11 players casting votes, but the mini-tribe could have gotten him.

5. You create the chance for five people who probably haven't had much chance to interact to bond over filling their bellies, to share info, create new bonds, to lie, etc.

[Chicago Redshirt]

49 minutes ago, jsm1125 said:

The continuation of original Reba thinking that Sifu could have an idol is baffling to me. Sifu has never left Reba’s camp, and Austin, Dee, Drew and Julie know that Austin has the initial Reba idol!  

Do they know? I'm sitting at home with a full belly and I can't keep straight who has what advantages without the help of other posters/chyrons. Goodness knows being in the middle of the craziness while starving and being run ragged, they might be forgiven for thinking that there was more than one idol floating around, and that Sifu somehow accessed an unexpected one.

[Chicago Redshirt]

1 hour ago, Gummo said:

Dee did not give the credit for her win to her great strength, her indomitable spirit or her faith in God.

No, she credited her freakishly long toes.

I gotta love her a little for that!

So does Quentin Tarantino. :)

[driver18]

I'm still team Emily, and continue to note how even when she (continues now) to not even be remotely in danger, the editors make sure that she doesn't have an invisible edit. And I remember her comment from the first episode: Her belief that she would either be voted out first or win. Considering where she was in the beginning and where she is now, I can't help but wonder about the inclusion of that comment.

[KeithJ]

7 hours ago, SummerDreams said:

Kellie is such a bad player that the only reason the reba will target her will be because of Austin's amulet.

Bruce is the perfect person to bring to the final tribal council and it was stupid of Kellie and Kendra agreeing very emphatically that nobody would take Bruce to the end. It's exactly the opposite; Bruce is the Russell Hantz of this season. They want him there to get zero votes.

Belo doesn't exist anymore in my opinion. Two rebas and Bruce will be final three.

But remember, nobody thought Gabler would get any votes either and look what happened.

[violet and green]

35 minutes ago, KeithJ said:

But remember, nobody thought Gabler would get any votes either and look what happened.

Gabler played a lowkey genial game, had multiple alliances and suballiances within alliances that nobody knew about - while Bruce is annoying, abrasive, bossy, and on everyone's radar even within his so-called alliance as a general pain in the neck, and is in the process of decimating anyone else who might have wanted to work with him. It's not comparable.

[Chicago Redshirt]

18 minutes ago, violet and green said:

Gabler played a lowkey genial game, had multiple alliances and suballiances within alliances that nobody knew about - while Bruce is annoying, abrasive, bossy, and on everyone's radar even within his so-called alliance as a general pain in the neck, and is in the process of decimating anyone else who might have wanted to work with him. It's not comparable.

The point isn't to suggest that the two played similar games. It's to say that it's hard to predict what the actual jury might do. 

The conventional wisdom would (IMO) suggest that Survivors who are too bossy, too inflexible, too annoying have no shot.

But all those things might make this particular group of Survivors have Bruce go to the FTC. And if he gets there, there's some chance that he is a dark horse winner rather than a goat.

[violet and green]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

The point isn't to suggest that the two played similar games. It's to say that it's hard to predict what the actual jury might do. 

In general, juries reward good gameplay - or someone they really like and enjoyed being with.

Bruce has neither of those going for him.

[Chicago Redshirt]

1 minute ago, violet and green said:

In general, juries reward good gameplay - or someone they really like and enjoyed being with.

Bruce has neither of those going for him.

We don't really know how much gameplay Bruce has in him, because if memory/glancing at Wikipedia serves, he hasn't been on a tribe that has gone to TC before this one.

And we don't know how much people have enjoyed being with Bruce. We at home assume "not much," because we are given that impression by the weekly THs from Katurah. And in this latest episode, Kellie and Kaleb dissed him. Are the opinions of those three representative of the whole? I imagine that there's no realistic circumstance under which Katurah would vote for Bruce to get a million dollars. It would take something like Satan and Hitler being the other members of the Final 3 somehow. But even if they dislike Bruce, I could see Kaleb and Kellie potentially voting for him.

We do know Bruce has enough social juice that he could get a bunch of his buddies to cover for him as he idol-hunted. That's not nothing.

[Gummo]

If Bruce's edit is any indication, Production doesn't like him much either.

[violet and green]

1 hour ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

But even if they dislike Bruce, I could see Kaleb and Kellie potentially voting for him.

Kellie, maybe. Kaleb, no. Kaleb tried to work with Bruce, grew tired of him, was side-eyeing him and barely tolerating him, but still trying to find a workable relationship within the game, and then was made aware by Emily that Bruce "hated" him and was heavily targeting him.

[Carey]

TBH, the 45 seconds I saw of Bruce in Season 44 was enough of an indication that he was going to be a problem if you gave him a season to compete

[Guiaoshi]

The nail of Kaleb coffin was overplaying exactly when he needed to tone down (he think he did but he didnt). From all the strategic speech on last week tribal, on trying to point out other targets that werent exactly the biggest..And than, the Idea do tell Katurah, that was totally on his side, that he kept as a secret that he helped Bruce (her biggest enemy) while he was digging for his idol so SHE would be the only one out of it but just now, after all this time, she should trust him and Jake (that also hide this secret from her and its actually Bruce ally) on a plan involving a tie and playing rocks!  It was a Full combination on make her feel she wasnt their priority as they made her feel, that It was a risk move that could cause her elimination plus It helped that was clear she was getting rid of a very strategic player. Kudos to him,he played, he was charismatic but next time? Simmer down. But for real... And here we go with Emily as the last Lulu member. Right now, I see clear favorite to win on Austin with a potential underdog that can make full circle on Emily. Lets see....

Edited November 10, 2023 by Guiaoshi

[Guest]

2 hours ago, violet and green said:

In general, juries reward good gameplay - or someone they really like and enjoyed being with.

Or Jenna Morasca.

[Chicago Redshirt]

4 hours ago, violet and green said:

Kellie, maybe. Kaleb, no. Kaleb tried to work with Bruce, grew tired of him, was side-eyeing him and barely tolerating him, but still trying to find a workable relationship within the game, and then was made aware by Emily that Bruce "hated" him and was heavily targeting him.

I may be giving Kaleb too much credit...he strikes to me least likely to be bitter about being booted and most likely to reward good game play. Which. like I said, I don't know if Bruce will actually bring to the table. 

[Scatterbrained]

We thought the blurry Oceans 11 (Survivor 6?) dream scene of Jake’s Big Plan was funny.  He’s was gonna do a strong arm vote heist!  He was gonna out alpha Austin!  

Alas, it was a Tale of Two Lawyers.  It was the best of strategies, it was the worst of strategies….

[iMonrey]

20 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Dumb gimmick, maybe. But doing the two-random tribe split, two TCs at this point shakes things up in a couple ways:

At issue is whether or not things needed to be "shaken up" in the first place. I maintain they did not. The show seems to think screwing with the players makes it more interesting, but at the end of the day they are just screwing with the players so much that whoever winds up in the finals is a total crapshoot.

Hey, you know what would really shake things up and keep the game fresh? If they came up with some new challenges, instead of recycling the same old obstacle course/puzzle challenges they've been using over and over again for God knows how long. I don't think I've seen a new challenge on this show in at least 15 years.

Now there's an idea.

[jsm1125]

How crazy is it that Bruce and Katurah are more than halfway through the game and have never been eligible to vote for each other (the first time they weren’t both immune, they were at separate tribals)!

Edited November 11, 2023 by jsm1125

[Heathrowe]

I am enjoying this season but the other reason the early double elimination is a bummer is because we spent the whole beginning of the season with Lulu taking up 75% of the storytelling. I just figured out who Dee & Kellie are this episode. I do not know the older blonde woman’s name. No time to get attached to anyone BUT Kale & Emily.

I dislike Bruce but it’s good to have someone to root against. Keeps me awake.

[ljenkins782]

On 11/9/2023 at 2:13 AM, 30 Helens said:

Coming in to this episode, my favorites were Kaleb, Emily and Katurah. As  the episode went on, I made room on the bench for Jake and Kellie. Then Emily started making nonsensical noises about dumping Kaleb, and she got pushed to the far end of the bench. Then Kaleb left, and Bruce didn’t, and nothing was right with the world. (Honestly, how was “Seafou” a bigger threat than Bruce? He possessed the same meat shield qualities, with only 1/10 of the jackassery.)

So I guess my dream team going into next week is Katurah, Jake, and Kellie. And maybe Emily, if she doesn’t make me push her right off the damn bench. You’re on thin ice, Lady.

I feel like the show missed an amusing opportunity by wrapping up the vote out before showing Sifu the parchment with Seafou on it, I would have liked to see his reaction to that particular butchering. 

As for Sifu over Bruce, while I suspect that Bruce's idol might have played a role in the decision, I also think Sifu may have gotten a softer edit than Bruce due to his mid-game ouster and lack of apparent effect on the game.

I don't know how far Bruce is going to go, but based on the amount of airtime he's gotten, I assume he goes deep or has some significant impact on the game. But Sifu's personality may well have been equally over-the-top as Bruce's, but the editors didn't show as much of it.

Sorry to see Kaleb go, but the split tribals and no immunity, it was kind of inevitable. 

[violet and green]

17 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

I may be giving Kaleb too much credit...he strikes to me least likely to be bitter about being booted and most likely to reward good game play. Which. like I said, I don't know if Bruce will actually bring to the table. 

I think you've got a good point there. I was thinking of Bruce with say Austen and Emily at the end. But if it was Bruce with some of the (in my view) limper players, he could quite well be respected for his efforts in getting there and I am sure Kaleb would reward the most hustle.

[gesundheit]

On 11/9/2023 at 2:48 AM, LadyChatts said:

I'm sad Kaleb was voted out as I really liked him, but I don't get why people are mad at Katurah over it.  Kaleb and Jake did it to themselves.  She either sticks with two guys she thought were allies that openly told her they not only were keeping a big secret from her, but actually helped in preventing her from finding out about Bruce's idol-or flips to a trio of people she doesn't know that well (and she even said it).  I don't know if she thinks this puts her in a better position with Belo or what.  And I still don't think that Jake's re-vote plan was going to work as well as he thought.  Even if Austin thought Julie was expendable, I doubt he would have wanted to face Dee's wrath.

Agreed - I was disappointed too, but Katurah really made the safer choice. Given that the whole thing was riding on Austin flipping his vote with zero reliable proof that it would actually happen, had she voted with Kaleb and Jake, she would've risked getting kicked out herself or alienating all her allies if it went to rocks. Hoist/petard/etc. She made the right choice even though the result is a bummer.

In doing the flash-forward about what it would look like at tribal if their plan went through, however, it became extremely obvious the plan wouldn't go through, so the editing there was a real wet blanket on any actual suspense.

[iMonrey]

7 hours ago, ljenkins782 said:

Sorry to see Kaleb go, but the split tribals and no immunity, it was kind of inevitable. 

Yes and it didn't have to be. But the show thinks it's more fun or more interesting to keep screwing up everyone's plans.

Alliances have been the key to winning this game and have been since the very first season when Richard Hatch figured that out. And lately the show has been determined to thwart such alliances by throwing in as many twists and idols and advantages as possible to keep such alliances from actually working. Kaleb had a much better chance against eleven votes than five. So did Sifu. But when the show keeps splitting them up into smaller groups there are fewer chances to build a team and follow through on a plan.

So what's they key to winning now? Based on recent seasons, it pays off to play the goofball who nobody sees as a threat to target, but even then you might not get the votes. It just feels very random. Surviving means surviving all the twists and idols and advantages and everything else the show throws at you, mostly out of sheer luck and chance. It's not about strategy. It's about lucking out.

I think a strong argument could be made that Bruce would have been the target if they hadn't split the players into two groups, there was definitely a trajectory in that direction. But the twist killed the numbers.

Either merge, or don't. 

Edited November 11, 2023 by iMonrey

[SVNBob]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:31 AM, Nashville said:

Under normal circumstances, maybe not - but keep in mind Austin had a fully functional HII in his pocket which he would NOT have had the opportunity to deploy had they gone to a rock draw.  Do you think  Austin wouldn’t be concerned about being sent down the Path Of Shame with an idol in his pocket?

Not only that, he also has an Amulet.  If he goes, then not only is his idol worthless, Kellie would gain a full idol.  Plus, he wouldn't his Sandwich Denial Revenge.

On 11/9/2023 at 1:23 PM, Gummo said:

Dee did not give the credit for her win to her great strength, her indomitable spirit or her faith in God.

No, she credited her freakishly long toes.

I gotta love her a little for that!

It wasn't that she had a great feat of strength, she had great strength of feet!

[PaperTree]

On 11/11/2023 at 3:57 AM, SVNBob said:

It wasn't that she had a great feat of strength, she had great strength of feet!

You win the internets!😎

[Chicago Redshirt]

On 11/10/2023 at 9:49 PM, iMonrey said:

Yes and it didn't have to be. But the show thinks it's more fun or more interesting to keep screwing up everyone's plans.

Alliances have been the key to winning this game and have been since the very first season when Richard Hatch figured that out. And lately the show has been determined to thwart such alliances by throwing in as many twists and idols and advantages as possible to keep such alliances from actually working. Kaleb had a much better chance against eleven votes than five. So did Sifu. But when the show keeps splitting them up into smaller groups there are fewer chances to build a team and follow through on a plan.

So what's they key to winning now? Based on recent seasons, it pays off to play the goofball who nobody sees as a threat to target, but even then you might not get the votes. It just feels very random. Surviving means surviving all the twists and idols and advantages and everything else the show throws at you, mostly out of sheer luck and chance. It's not about strategy. It's about lucking out.

I think a strong argument could be made that Bruce would have been the target if they hadn't split the players into two groups, there was definitely a trajectory in that direction. But the twist killed the numbers.

Either merge, or don't. 

Assuming the comparison is between the two mini-tribes and a traditional 1 person gets voted off this week scenario, I think you have things reversed.

Kaleb would have had virtually no chance at convincing 5 of the 11 others to side with him in the wake of a vote where all the votes were originally for him. At best, it seems to me, he could have gotten Jake, Emily and maybe one random person on board. 

It was the split tribes that created a small opening that if they did flip Katurah and convince her to stay firm, maybe Austin would have folded and voted for their target instead of Caleb and risking rocks.

I don't see a very good argument for Bruce being the target if it had been all 12 in one tribal council. Even putting aside that the tribe had already spoken and Kaleb was the easy vote, there's incentive to stay Belo strong for the five people who were originally on that tribe to stand up to the Rebas. As much as Katurah and others might not like him at this point, it would be silly for them to undermine their alliance. As for the Rebas targeting him and trying to pull in Emily and Kaleb to get the numbers, the info is out there that Bruce has an idol. Yes, there could be a move to blindside him, but it would be risky. No clue if any from OG Reba knows about it. 

[Diana Berry]

I think Austin and Dee with their perfect teeth make a cute couple.   

[Nashville]

1 hour ago, Diana Berry said:

I think Austin and Dee with their perfect teeth make a cute couple.   

…or a cute Colgate ad, at least.

[iMonrey]

22 hours ago, Chicago Redshirt said:

Kaleb would have had virtually no chance at convincing 5 of the 11 others to side with him in the wake of a vote where all the votes were originally for him. At best, it seems to me, he could have gotten Jake, Emily and maybe one random person on board. 

I don't see a very good argument for Bruce being the target if it had been all 12 in one tribal council. Even putting aside that the tribe had already spoken and Kaleb was the easy vote, there's incentive to stay Belo strong for the five people who were originally on that tribe to stand up to the Rebas.

Kendra wanted to get rid of Bruce too, and Kellie was on the fence. There was definitely a possibility of getting enough votes to oust Bruce. Was it a strong possibility? Maybe not, but by splitting the teams in two, there was zero possibility. 

Any way you spin it, we'll never know will we? Because the "game" doesn't have any rules anymore. You can't rely on anything, so how can you plan or strategize? Imagine playing poker, having a great hand, and all of a sudden someone steps in and says "throw your cards away, everyone gets new cards." That's kind of what Survivor has devolved into.