2019 Awards Season

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 12/12/2018 at 12:41 PM, AshleyN said:

 and the randomness of Blunt and (especially) Robbie's mentions there).

Oh my god.  I just realized Blunt was nominated for Mary Poppins and NOT A Quiet Place.  Holy mother.  

On 12/14/2018 at 3:12 AM, kiddo82 said:

I'm really pulling for Bohemian Rhapsody to get a best picture nom now just to stick it to the haters.  Neither was a perfect film but it was so much more enjoyable than the meandering A Star is Born (a trait almost every version of that film suffers from).  Plus, the Live Aid scene in Rhapsody might literally be the best concert scene I've ever experienced in a movie.  Not only did I find it extremely well produced, it literally brought tears to my eyes.   That final twenty minutes alone, in my opinion, should be enough to at least get it on the list.  A Rami Malek nomination should be a no doubter.

Honestly, though, and it's probably just me, I feel like it's a weak crop in general.  With the exception of Bohemian Rhapsody and BlacKkKlansman, I could take or leave any of the other movies* likely to get a best picture nomination.

 

*Still need to see Beale Street, Vice, and Roma.

 

Oh GOD yes.  I was going to start bolding sentences, but I basically agree with every single thing you said.

Except again, I loved this year for movies.  I agree that BR was better than ASIB (for ME) and BR, MI:6, Black Panther, and Crazy Rich Asians were all perfect (for ME).  The fact that I've seen 4 perfect movies this year makes me extremely happy, and there is more to come.  

The hype for Roma, The Favourite, and Spider Verse (I don't even know what it's called I'm so ignorant) are OFF.THE.CHARTS on Letterboxd.com.  I guess Beale Street too, but at a lesser extent.  For those who might not know, Letterboxd is a movie review/list site/app and my new obsession.  

Edited December 15, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 12/14/2018 at 9:41 AM, Shannon L. said:

I'm still baffled by the critic's response to this movie.  I understand thinking that it might have been better if they'd gone with an R-rating and really delved into the nitty gritty of Freddie's life and the band's experience, and I understand disliking any inaccuracies, but I kept hearing "by the numbers" or "formulaic".  It's a basically a biography--how can it not be by the numbers or formulaic unless they do something like Rocket Man where it appears that it will have a number of fantasy sequences? 

I hear the same criticism again and again and again.  But I agree, I don't get it.  When I watched it it completely won me over.  Some of the reviews are so vitriolic.  

I'm a Bradley/Rami fan too.  I was more impressed by Bradley at first, but either would make me happy.

Check out this review - exemplary of what I mean:

https://www.indiewire.com/2018/10/bohemian-rhapsody-review-rami-malek-1202014286/

Edited December 15, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay

[kiddo82]

Heavens to Betsy, that was scathing.  It's criticisms such as this though (and not just about BoRhap but in general) that make me shake my head:

Quote

From the disapproving parents, to the drug-fueled orgies, to the unbelievable scene when a young Freddie Mercury (née Farrokh Bulsara) introduces himself to Brian May and Roger Taylor mere seconds after the two bandmates have been abandoned by their original lead singer, it’s an out-of-body experience to watch such a paint-by-numbers portrait in a post-“Walk Hard” world.

We know he joins the band before we set foot in the theater!  We knew he joined the band before they ever decided to make a movie about it.  Unless there is some really interesting story there that needs to be told who cares if they just cut to the chase?  It would be like watching a movie about Michael Jordan and having it needlessly dragged out if he ever picks up a basketball.  And the slams about his parents being underdeveloped are more understandable but at the same time, there simply isn't enough room for everything.  That's the underlying issue with biopics in general, though.  Unless you are focusing on a very specific time frame or event (like the movie Jackie did) things need to be truncated, glossed over, or left out in general. 

 

Steering back to topic, I think it's an uphill climb for Bradley Cooper in the best actor race going up against what are two well received portrayals of real life people from Malek and Bale.  Even without having seen Vice yet I suspect it will be a two horse race between Rami and Christian.  If the the Academy luuuurves anything it's transformations and actors playing real people.   It will also be interesting if Sam Rockwell goes 2 for 2 in the best supporting actor category.  I've only seen the teaser trailer for Vice but his portrayal of W is kinda scary good.    

Edited December 15, 2018 by kiddo82

[AshleyN]

3 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

Oh my god.  I just realized Blunt was nominated for Mary Poppins and NOT A Quiet Place.  Holy mother.    

 

She was nominated for both! Lead for Mary Poppins, Supporting for A Quiet Place.

It would be kind of fun if she finally broke through at the Oscars with not one, but two nominations.

Edited December 15, 2018 by AshleyN

[Ms Blue Jay]

Thanks.  I personally wouldn't find that FUN, LOL.  These award shows are already so non-diverse as it is.

 

4 hours ago, kiddo82 said:

Steering back to topic, I think it's an uphill climb for Bradley Cooper in the best actor race going up against what are two well received portrayals of real life people from Malek and Bale.  Even without having seen Vice yet I suspect it will be a two horse race between Rami and Christian.  If the the Academy luuuurves anything it's transformations and actors playing real people.   It will also be interesting if Sam Rockwell goes 2 for 2 in the best supporting actor category.  I've only seen the teaser trailer for Vice but his portrayal of W is kinda scary good.    

 

I was so impressed by Bradley because it was a transformation!  ASIB kind of reads like a biopic, it's just a fictional one.

Only now just realizing how much Sam Rockwell does look like W.  LOL. Obviously I haven't seen it yet.

Ethan Hawke is getting amazing reviews for "First Reformed" - David Ehrlich's number 1 movie of the year - that same critic I linked upthread.

Edited December 15, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay

[scarynikki12]

I hope Disney puts forth the effort for Mary Poppins and Black Panther.  I have no idea if they care as much about Oscars as the other studios but it always seems like they don't.  They traditionally don't have movies in the running for the Big Six (Picture, Director, and the four Acting) which may be why it seems like they don't care, but this year they have Black Panther and Mary Poppins.  Put forth the effort Disney!  Get a campaign going for Black Panther to get nods for Picture, Director, Acting, Cinematography, etc. and take advantage of the love and acclaim.  The original Mary Poppins gave Julie Andrews her Oscar so why not try and repeat that success for Blunt and Miranda?  Again, take advantage of the love and acclaim. 

To be fair to Disney, they may be doing this already and that's why Black Panther and Mary Poppins have gotten so many nominations for different awards so far, but I want to drive it home. 

[Dejana]

I get why Bohemian Rhapsody is hugely popular but also why the critics aren't fans: they really aren't here for biopics that cover multiple decades these days, they wanted a grittier portrayal of Freddie's sexuality, they feel the approach it did take often lapsed into old/harmful stereotypes, the character development for everyone else wasn't the strongest, they are familiar enough with the real-life history to find the movie's changes distracting, and then the Bryan Singer association probably lopped off 10-15 points from the Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores. Without that, the reception still probably wouldn't be great, but less harsh. But critics and general audiences are often looking to get very different things out of movies.

 

I thought the movie was at its strongest in the end, but felt Rami was noticeably struggling with those prosthetic teeth at times, they really should have scaled them down a touch. In ranking performances, I think consistency is important and would go for someone very good to excellent throughout before a more uneven performance. I know feelings about performances are subjective and people vote based on all different kinds of criteria: who had the highest degree of difficulty, which was the most moving, who transformed the most, who is in the best movie overall, etc.

Edited December 15, 2018 by Dejana

[Shannon L.]

3 minutes ago, Dejana said:

I thought the movie was at its strongest in the end, but felt Rami was struggling with those prosthetic teeth for the first half hour or so, they really should have scaled them down a touch.

That might have been a conscious choice.  My husband is such a big fan, he has the Queen logo tattooed on a shoulder blade, knows every word to every song, cried when Freddie died.....you know the type.  Anyway, I mentioned that they needed to give Rami more time to get used to the prosthetic teeth, he said "Freddie was very uncomfortable teeth and, if I remember correctly, he did 'play' with them sometimes, with his lips and tongue".    Maybe some day I'll look at some old interviews.

[Ms Blue Jay]

Freddie's real teeth are so much more distracting than Rami's prosthetics!  I don't agree that they should have been scaled down.  

[Shannon L.]

9 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

Check out this review - exemplary of what I mean:

https://www.indiewire.com/2018/10/bohemian-rhapsody-review-rami-malek-1202014286/

 

 

4 hours ago, Dejana said:

But critics and general audiences are often looking to get very different things out of movies.

Christ that one review that @Ms Blue Jay posted makes me think that that guy walked in pissed off at the PG-13 rating and was bound and determined to hate it.  Lighten up, for Christ sake.  Like you and @kiddo82 said, it covers decades, so they have to skim over some things and play with the time line a little.

Anyway, it looks like it could be a tight race between Bradley , Rami and maybe Christian (?).  I want Rami to win because they think he deserves it, but I have to wonder if the Academy will take into consideration the outpouring of love for the movie that the critics panned?  I'd like to say that they wouldn't, but we've seen the apparent "You should've gotten it last year, so we'll give it to you this year" awards, so who knows what they take into consideration when making their decision.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Shannon L.

[Spartan Girl]

Does anyone else other than me get annoyed when movies that haven't even come out yet get nominated? I know critics get first dibs on some screenings but still...

[angora]

7 hours ago, Shannon L. said:

That might have been a conscious choice.  My husband is such a big fan, he has the Queen logo tattooed on a shoulder blade, knows every word to every song, cried when Freddie died.....you know the type.  Anyway, I mentioned that they needed to give Rami more time to get used to the prosthetic teeth, he said "Freddie was very uncomfortable teeth and, if I remember correctly, he did 'play' with them sometimes, with his lips and tongue".    Maybe some day I'll look at some old interviews.

I just saw Bohemian Rhapsody this week and was poking around YouTube afterwards for interviews with Rami Malek.  On Fallon, he talked about how his own insecurity with the teeth helped inform his performance, that his posture and the way he carried himself changed to compensate, and it made him realize that they'd influenced Freddie's bearing in the same way.

Here's the interview - he talks about the teeth at 2:40.

[galaxygirl76]

Anyone think that they may give the Best Actress award to Glenn Close because she's Glenn Close and 'it's time'?

[methodwriter85]

3 hours ago, galaxygirl76 said:

Anyone think that they may give the Best Actress award to Glenn Close because she's Glenn Close and 'it's time'?

I kind of hope. I don't know, I really don't want it to be Lady Gaga because while her singing and chemistry with Bradley Cooper was off the charts, they didn't really do much to flesh out the character. I'm resigning myself to the idea that it may happen, but I'd prefer it not to happen.

[Ms Blue Jay]

I thought that the score for The Favourite was really beautiful, so I'm surprised about that one.   Also no mention of it for Makeup and Hairstyling - only the men seemed to wear makeup, but the women certainly had intricate hairstyling.

I wish that A Star is Born could just nominate every song on the soundtrack.   If two songs can come from Mary Poppins Returns, then surely ASIB should have done the same.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/academy-unveils-2019-oscar-shortlists-1168394/item/

Edited December 17, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay

[SeanC]

I don't know if the slimmed-down broadcast is going to have original song performances this year, but I really want to see Sarah Silverman perform "A Place Called Slaughter Race".

[ruby24]

That means ASIB only submitted "Shallow," because I'm sure they would have gotten two onto the shortlist otherwise. Why didn't they go for two? Even if they did get two nominations, I'm sure Shallow would win anyway.

[Dejana]

4 hours ago, ruby24 said:

That means ASIB only submitted "Shallow," because I'm sure they would have gotten two onto the shortlist otherwise. Why didn't they go for two? Even if they did get two nominations, I'm sure Shallow would win anyway.

I guess they felt rallying behind one song would give it the best chance to win and strategically, keeping the potential nomination count from getting too high helps mitigate some of the frontrunner backlash. The movies aren't exactly the same but WB's strategists probably studied La La Land's awards run very carefully to determine when things started to go wrong for it, and figure out ways to keep A Star Is Born from suffering the same fate (not knowing there'd be several contenders to serve as much bigger backlash targets anyway).

Since, more likely than not, only one song will win, they must be thinking, why push multiple options? Of course, watch this be the year there's a tie in Best Original Song. 

 

The reviews for Vice are...interesting. I don't know if it will have enough support to win any of the televised major category awards, in spite of the divisive critical reception. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Dejana

[tennisgurl]

Some of it will probably come down to the general buzz of the movies. It’s happened before that a movie that got mixed reviews but made lots of money or became part of the mainstream pop culture conversation, wins more awards than movies that got better reviews. Or, at least, got a decent amount of nominations. 

[SeanC]

11 hours ago, Dejana said:

The reviews for Vice are...interesting. I don't know if it will have enough support to win any of the televised major category awards, in spite of the divisive critical reception. 

Even more than the reviews, I think box office is going to be a big determinant for Vice.  I'll be very interested to see if this film has an audience -- obviously most biopics are sold to admirers of the subject, but Vice is highly critical, so those Republicans who still admire the Bush Administration will understandably shun it.  Conversely, are critics of the Bush Administration interested in paying to see a movie about how much it sucked?  W. didn't find many takers.

[Shannon L.]

56 minutes ago, SeanC said:

Conversely, are critics of the Bush Administration interested in paying to see a movie about how much it sucked?  W. didn't find many takers.

I can't wait.  However, I tend to enjoy political movies that are based on real people and events.    I also thought W. was really good.  Isn't Vice from the same guy who did The Big Short?  If it's tone is similar in nature to that one, it might do well. 

[Irlandesa]

I haven't forgiven McKay for erasing Meredith Whitney from The Big Short's story.

And then I read some of the spoilers which make me think it's a director trying to be too cutesy.  For instance, in the credit scenes, this apparently happens.

Spoiler

There's are focus group scenes.  In the movie, the focus group gives campaign feedback.  During the credits, this time they're giving feedback on the movie.  One person says it's too liberal.  The other says something like they were too easy on Cheney.  And the third person says they can't wait to see an action movie.

And the movie is narrated by

Spoiler

Jesse Plemmons who allegedly is the guy Cheney shot in the face.

[Dejana]

11 hours ago, SeanC said:

Even more than the reviews, I think box office is going to be a big determinant for Vice.  I'll be very interested to see if this film has an audience -- obviously most biopics are sold to admirers of the subject, but Vice is highly critical, so those Republicans who still admire the Bush Administration will understandably shun it.  Conversely, are critics of the Bush Administration interested in paying to see a movie about how much it sucked?  W. didn't find many takers.

A Dick Cheney biopic doesn't scream "Happy Holidays", but Django Unchained and The Wolf of Wall Street weren't necessarily festive, either, and were hits at Christmas. Of course, those had better reviews, and Leonardo DiCaprio. Christmas is a pretty generous time at the box office that can save movies from outright flopping, hut it is a pretty crowded season this year,. Still, even divisive movies that don't make much can rack up the nominations if they have ardent Academy support.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Dejana

[methodwriter85]

I'm not usually a big fan of hating on Meryl Streep and I generally enjoy her work, but my god...this USA Today line about how she should have been nominated for a Globe in Mama Mia 2:

Quote

Meryl Streep. Sure, Streep has a smaller role as Donna in "Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again!" than she did in 2008's first film, which earned her a best-actress nomination. And Streep has one memorable scene in "Mary Poppins Returns." But this is three-time Oscar winner Meryl Streep, who has won eight Golden Globes. Any time she's overlooked, it's a snub.

Really? Really? You think she deserved a nomination for one small scene at the end and a credits scene purely because she's Meryl Streep?

[raezen]

41 minutes ago, methodwriter85 said:

I'm not usually a big fan of hating on Meryl Streep and I generally enjoy her work, but my god...this USA Today line about how she should have been nominated for a Globe in Mama Mia 2:

Really? Really? You think she deserved a nomination for one small scene at the end and a credits scene purely because she's Meryl Streep?

I've heard for a long time now that the Globes mean absolutely nothing. Really. And reading what you quoted down below, you'd almost believe that the author was trying to slyly say that.

 

43 minutes ago, methodwriter85 said:

Meryl Streep. Sure, Streep has a smaller role as Donna in "Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again!" than she did in 2008's first film, which earned her a best-actress nomination. And Streep has one memorable scene in "Mary Poppins Returns." But this is three-time Oscar winner Meryl Streep, who has won eight Golden Globes. Any time she's overlooked, it's a snub.

[Shannon L.]

1 hour ago, methodwriter85 said:

I'm not usually a big fan of hating on Meryl Streep and I generally enjoy her work, but my god...this USA Today line about how she should have been nominated for a Globe in Mama Mia 2:

Really? Really? You think she deserved a nomination for one small scene at the end and a credits scene purely because she's Meryl Streep?

 

44 minutes ago, raezen said:

I've heard for a long time now that the Globes mean absolutely nothing. Really. And reading what you quoted down below, you'd almost believe that the author was trying to slyly say that.

 

Especially since she was horribly miscast in the role. 

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 12/18/2018 at 12:10 AM, Dejana said:

Since, more likely than not, only one song will win, they must be thinking, why push multiple options? Of course, watch this be the year there's a tie in Best Original Song. 

I get what you're saying.  It's just that for me, while ASIB was not my favourite movie of the year, it was definitely my favourite album. I thought it was great.

[methodwriter85]

On 12/19/2018 at 6:57 PM, Shannon L. said:

Especially since she was horribly miscast in the role. 

I mean, she was too young when that movie came out, but seeing Jennifer Nettles in this clip just reminds me of what Donna should have been. And Lily James was absolutely spectacular as the younger Donna. So yeah, Meryl Streep shouldn't have done the part but it's whatever at this point. When they inevitably reboot the movie in the 2030's we can hope for an Adult Donna who's both age-appropriate and can belt out a tune.

[Shannon L.]

I watched Bad Times at the El Royale again last night and I was even more impressed with it than the first time around.  I know this was a strong season for movies, but I really think there were enough good performances to at least have SAG nominate it for Best Performance by a Cast.  I really hope that we at least see some nominations for set design and costumes.

[thuganomics85]

Producer Guild nominations!

 

Quote

“Black Panther” (Producer: Kevin Feige)
“BlacKkKlansman” (Producers: Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, Spike Lee)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Producer: Graham King)
“Crazy Rich Asians” (Producers: Nina Jacobson & Brad Simpson, John Penotti)
 “The Favourite” (Producers: Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos)
“Green Book” (Producers: Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
“A Quiet Place” (Producers: Michael Bay, Andrew Form, Brad Fuller)
“Roma” (Producers: Gabriela Rodríguez, Alfonso Cuarón)
“A Star Is Born” (Producers: Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper, Lynette Howell Taylor)
“Vice” (Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Kevin Messick, Adam McKay)

Looks like First Man is officially done for, and If Beale Street Could Talk was a surprising snub.  Meanwhile, a few surprises with fan favorites like Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place, and Bohemian Rhapsody continues to stay in the game despite its detractors.  Could be interesting!

[Shannon L.]

Based on what's been nominated so far, from the Golden Globes, to SAG, to the Producer's Guild, I'm so excited for this year's Oscars.  I've seen most of the nominated movies and plan on seeing a few more before the program.  That's rare for me, since half the time, whatever movies are nominated I simply can't get interested in and don't even bother trying.

@thuganomics85 wrote:
"Looks like First Man is officially done for"

I'm not too surprised at it not getting nominated for some bigger awards, but I'll be shocked if it's not nominated for special effects. Technically, it was fantastic.  Unfortunately, the story was a bit dull.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Shannon L.

[scarynikki12]

@Shannon L. I am curious as to what would happen at the Oscars if/when you actually see all the Best Picture noms.  Normally I'd assume we'd get the La La Land/Moonlight mistake but I remember you hadn't seen all the movies that year so we know that's not it.  I'm hoping the result is something positive like a first ever BP tie. 

I'm nervous about the lack of love for Beale Street.  I'm seeing it this weekend so I'll have an opinion soon but I really want Regina to win an Oscar and this is making me think she'll be lucky to get nominated.

[Shannon L.]

44 minutes ago, scarynikki12 said:

@Shannon L. I am curious as to what would happen at the Oscars if/when you actually see all the Best Picture noms.  Normally I'd assume we'd get the La La Land/Moonlight mistake but I remember you hadn't seen all the movies that year so we know that's not it.  I'm hoping the result is something positive like a first ever BP tie. 

I'm nervous about the lack of love for Beale Street.  I'm seeing it this weekend so I'll have an opinion soon but I really want Regina to win an Oscar and this is making me think she'll be lucky to get nominated.

lol!  You remembered  :)  Well, there's still a possibility that a couple will get nominated that I have no interest in or there will be a couple that I do want to see, but simply didn't have time to watch them before the broadcast.  In the event that I see all of them, I'd put money on my least favorite of the bunch winning. 

[scarynikki12]

6 minutes ago, Shannon L. said:

lol!  You remembered  :)

Of course!  You're the reason Moonlight won!  I'll never forget your magical powers. 

7 minutes ago, Shannon L. said:

In the event that I see all of them, I'd put money on my least favorite of the bunch winning.

Hmmm...well if you do end up seeing all of them I'll just have to hope that your least favorite and my favorite are the same movie.

One thing that I've come to realize is that I don't have a runaway favorite this year.  Of the prospective BP nominations, I loved A Star Is Born, Black Panther, and (assuming the PGA is an accurate predictor) Crazy Rich Asians fairly equally.  I also enjoyed The Favourite, Roma, and A Quiet Place enough that I'd place them just below the top tier that the first three are on.  By this time in Oscar season I'm typically down to one or two movies I'm all in on and a handful that I really enjoyed but are in a distant third place.  Hope this doesn't lead to Oscar ballot stress.

[Shannon L.]

3 minutes ago, scarynikki12 said:

One thing that I've come to realize is that I don't have a runaway favorite this year.  Of the prospective BP nominations, I loved A Star Is Born, Black Panther, and (assuming the PGA is an accurate predictor) Crazy Rich Asians fairly equally.  I also enjoyed The Favourite, Roma, and A Quiet Place enough that I'd place them just below the top tier that the first three are on.  By this time in Oscar season I'm typically down to one or two movies I'm all in on and a handful that I really enjoyed but are in a distant third place.  Hope this doesn't lead to Oscar ballot stress.

Of the Producer's Guild nominees, I've seen 6 and loved all of them (5 of them were nominated for best performance by a cast for the SAG awards).  I intend to see 3 more.   don't watch foreign films because I'm a slow reader, so it gets really frustrating to have to read subtitles. I either miss the action, or, if I catch the action, I don't get to all of the dialog.  I've seen 7 of the Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture (both categories, obviously) and intend to see the other three.  Yeah, I'm really stoked for this year (unless, of course, the Oscars go off the beaten path).

[ruby24]

I think this list minus Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place (because the Oscars don't do the full ten) will probably be the Best Picture nominees.

And there's maybe a chance for If Beale Street Could Talk to show up on Oscar morning, but it's kinda looking like that one doesn't have as much industry support, so I'm not sure. Still, with Black Panther, A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody, this will put to the test whether the Oscar ratings really are due to the box office totals of the nominated movies or not.

Especially with Black Panther or A Star is Born likely to be the winner. If it's between those two, I think maybe Black Panther could take it, to be honest.

[sweetcookieface]

Quote

“Black Panther” (Producer: Kevin Feige)
“BlacKkKlansman” (Producers: Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, Spike Lee)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Producer: Graham King)
“Crazy Rich Asians” (Producers: Nina Jacobson & Brad Simpson, John Penotti)
 “The Favourite” (Producers: Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos)
“Green Book” (Producers: Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga)
“A Quiet Place” (Producers: Michael Bay, Andrew Form, Brad Fuller)
“Roma” (Producers: Gabriela Rodríguez, Alfonso Cuarón)
“A Star Is Born” (Producers: Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper, Lynette Howell Taylor)
“Vice” (Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Kevin Messick, Adam McKay)

Huh, I've seen all of these save for Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, neither of which I'm that keen on checking out. I'd say Roma was the best of the bunch - just an incredible artistic achievement. In the next tier I'd put A Star Is Born (basically a glorified melodrama, but really well done); Black Klansman (great, compelling story, if a bit conventionally told); The Favourite (witty with impeccable costumes and sets, although not necessarily my favorite Lanthimos movie); and Black Panther (taking superhero movies to the next level). Of the rest, I thought Crazy Rich Asians was perfectly fine, but a bit overrated; enjoyed A Quiet Place's unique concept and thought it was well executed, but wouldn't rank it among my favorites of the year; and found Vice compelling with terrific performances from Bale and Adams, but thought some of Adam McKay's directorial flourishes (e.g., breaking the fourth wall and comic interludes) were a bit overdone and distracting at times.

Honestly, my three favorite movies this year were probably Roma, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Eighth Grade, although I can't point to anything this year that's as obvious a favorite for me as, say, Moonlight.

Here are some of my initial thoughts re: the various acting categories:

Best Actor: Having just seen Vice, I might have to root for Christian Bale, although I thought Bradley Cooper also impressed in a less showy role. Ethan Hawke was also fantastic in First Reformed. 

Best Actress: Olivia Colman by a mile. I also really liked Viola in Widows, but that doesn't seem to have generated much buzz. 

Best Supporting Actor: My favorite two performances in this category would probably be Brian Tyree Henry in If Beale Street Could Talk (or in Widows for that matter) and Nicholas Hoult in The Favourite. Unfortunately, neither seems like a real contender.

Best Supporting Actress: This seems like a pretty stacked category. I'm pulling for Regina King, but would also be ok with Amy Adams, or either of the two "supporting" performances in The Favourite (Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone, with the former getting a slight edge in my book).

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 1/4/2019 at 3:35 PM, thuganomics85 said:

Producer Guild nominations!

 

Looks like First Man is officially done for, and If Beale Street Could Talk was a surprising snub.  Meanwhile, a few surprises with fan favorites like Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place, and Bohemian Rhapsody continues to stay in the game despite its detractors.  Could be interesting!

With the exception of missing Mission Impossible 6, my fourth favourite movie of the year, geez.  It's like I picked the nominations myself.  I'm so happy and surprised.

For Best Actor I've already said I'm Rami Malek versus Bradley Cooper.  Best Actress or Supporting, wherever she may go, I'd pick Emma Stone even though it annoys me that this woman has such a privilege of roles year after year!  I hate admitting that I thought she did a great job.

Edited January 6, 2019 by Ms Blue Jay

[thuganomics85]

Whelp, the good old Golden Globes went crazy like they always do!  A Star is Born only snagged Best Song, and watched Bohemian Rhapsody take Best Drama and Actor.  That's going to cause some debates, I imagine.  Meanwhile, Glenn Close defeated Lady Gaga and I think is going to take the Oscar after her speech, which seemed to really hit home with a lot of people, while Alfonso Curan nabbed the director trophy.

On the Comedy/Musical front, Green Book got Best Film, Best Screenplay, and Supporting Actor, Olivia Coleman won Actress for The Favorite, and Christian Bale snagged the lone trophy for Vice.  Also, Regina King was able to get If Beale Street Could Talk back on the map for a bit!

Again, this is the Globes, so I don't hold that much stock since they tend to not match up with the Oscars, but it's made things... interesting, at least.

[scarynikki12]

A lot of people are starting to worry now that Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody won but I think everyone should remain calm until after SAG, DGA, and PGA.  First, if A Star Is Born had been in the musical category it would absolutely have won so Green Book caught a break there (same if BR had been in musical rather than drama).  Second, the Globes are not nearly as accurate at predicting Oscars as they want everyone to think.  While I hope that some of the wins are repeated on Oscar night (Regina, Glenn, and Olivia to name three), we won't know who the true frontrunners are for a few more weeks.  Wait until the guilds start giving out their awards and we'll know if tonight was a good predictor. 

[ruby24]

I think the fallout from this will boost Roma, honestly. People are going to be embarrassed at the idea that Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody could win Best Picture and be looking for the "quality" alternative.

[NUguy514]

Just now, ruby24 said:

I think the fallout from this will boost Roma, honestly. People are going to be embarrassed at the idea that Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody could win Best Picture and be looking for the "quality" alternative.

100%

Roma was not eligible in Best Drama since the Globes don't allow foreign-language films to compete in Best Drama or Best Musical/Comedy, and I think it could become the first foreign-language film to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

I think Black Panther will take SAG Ensemble.  I'm a SAG member (don't get excited, I've done absolutely nothing of note), and I voted for BP in Ensemble (I would've voted for The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, or Roma had any been nominated, but they weren't).

[Dejana]

38 minutes ago, thuganomics85 said:

Whelp, the good old Golden Globes went crazy like they always do!  A Star is Born only snagged Best Song, and watched Bohemian Rhapsody take Best Drama and Actor.  That's going to cause some debates, I imagine.  Meanwhile, Glenn Close defeated Lady Gaga and I think is going to take the Oscar after her speech, which seemed to really hit home with a lot of people, while Alfonso Curan nabbed the director trophy.

On the Comedy/Musical front, Green Book got Best Film, Best Screenplay, and Supporting Actor, Olivia Coleman won Actress for The Favorite, and Christian Bale snagged the lone trophy for Vice.  Also, Regina King was able to get If Beale Street Could Talk back on the map for a bit!

Again, this is the Globes, so I don't hold that much stock since they tend to not match up with the Oscars, but it's made things... interesting, at least.

Last year, they missed The Shape of Water but the year before, Moonlight won Best Drama and La La Land won Musical/Comedy. It's still really hard to believe that best picture at the Oscars will come down to the two winners tonight. 

The awards bloggers had been saying for the past couple of weeks that the Bohemian Rhapsody love runs deep in the industry, so I'd come to expect  Rami and the movie to win. Given the global box office of BR (over $740 million and counting, $550M of from international markets), the Globes would be the place that would reward it. I can see SAG going for it, too, since the merger with AFTRA, a lot of the voters aren't even actors. I know a SAG win doesn't mean the Best Picture win, the last two Outstanding Cast winners there didn't get the Oscar, and it will probably have enough detractors not to do as well on an AMPAS preferential ballot.

Edited January 7, 2019 by Dejana

[ruby24]

I believe the love for it is real, but that's why I think Rami Malek will likely win the Oscar for Best Actor and that will be the movie's reward. I don't think it will win Best Picture.

[ProudMary]

I think SAG gives the cast award to Black Panther.  I don't see how the depth of that cast can possibly be denied.

I still look at Roma as the front runner for the Oscar.  

[tennisgurl]

I see Bohemian Rhapsody getting the Best Actor award as the Academy’s kind of “Big Crowd Pleaser” award, leaving Roma to win for Best Picture. I still bet on A Star Is Born for Best Director, at least. 

[Bill1978]

After tonight's Globe, I've realised just how much I hope Glenn Close wins the Oscar. It's mind blowing to think she hasn't already.

[ProudMary]

38 minutes ago, tennisgurl said:

I see Bohemian Rhapsody getting the Best Actor award as the Academy’s kind of “Big Crowd Pleaser” award, leaving Roma to win for Best Picture. I still bet on A Star Is Born for Best Director, at least. 

My opinion certainly is no more valid than yours but I think Cuaron is an absolute lock for Best Director, regardless of the Academy's choice for Best Picture.  There is still wiggle room in the other categories, IMO.

[ruby24]

A Star is Born might end up winning only Song, imo. Maybe the sound awards too.

[NUguy514]

45 minutes ago, ProudMary said:

My opinion certainly is no more valid than yours but I think Cuaron is an absolute lock for Best Director, regardless of the Academy's choice for Best Picture.  There is still wiggle room in the other categories, IMO.

Yeah, Cuarón is the biggest lock of the Oscars, and no one has even been nominated yet!