2019 Awards Season

[Athena]

It's more than half way through 2018 so it's time to start speculating on films and movies for the 2019 Awards season.

[NUguy514]

Oh good, maybe they can add Best Comedy and Best Horror and Best Western and Best Shitty Teen Romance Based on a Nicholas Sparks movie next time! And let's have 47 acting categories, too! One should be Best Performance by an Actor Who Is a Sexual Predator and Still Gets to Work Because He's a Straight White Guy in a Leading Role; there will be too many worthy performers to fill five slots! Oscars for everyone!!

[Silver Raven]

The best popular category is just a way for Oscar to get around nominating Black Panther for Best Picture.

[proserpina65]

On ‎02‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 3:36 PM, Shannon L. said:

I loved Darkest Hour  ::shrug::

I thought it was terrific.

[Shannon L.]

3 hours ago, thuganomics85 said:

Never too early to talk about Oscar season, right?  Because it looks they might be adding a category to recognize "popular films" a.k.a. films audiences actually see, heh.  I have no idea what to think at the moment.

Although, really, if they're doing it next year, they might as well go ahead and engrave Black Panther's name into trophy, because I can't see anything else beating it.  Sorry, Thanos and the rest of the Avengers!

Well, if it's the only freakin' way for them to acknowledge that some of these popular movies are actually really good, then I'm fine with it. 

[Spartan Girl]

So just like the Best Animated Feature Category was created to ensure cartoons will never win Best Picture, this category will ensure that they can keep snubbing good movies in favor of the pretentious shit that that nobody really sees yet always win Best Picture.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Spartan Girl

[galaxygirl76]

Wasn't the best picture category originally expanded to 'allow' room for those blockbuster genre hits and then the Academy turned around and went back nominating the artsy fartsy dramas ones, like they used to do back before the expansion, with like one non drama nominated and four more dramas and no chance in hell for the non drama movie?

[starri]

2 hours ago, Spartan Girl said:

So just like the Best Animated Feature Category was created to ensure cartoons will never win Best Picture, this category will ensure that they can keep snubbing good movies in favor of the pretentious shit that that nobody really sees yet always win Best Picture.

On the other hand, this gives them a way to award stuff like Black Panther (or another popcorn movie that I thought deserved a nomination, Skyfall) while also recognizing "the pretentious shit" and helping it find an audience.

Put another way, I'd rather have Spirited Away and Up get Best Animated Oscars than no Oscars.

[Dejana]

I predict this move to go about as well as the most recent Grammys, where the blue ribbon panel preemptively blocking Ed Sheeran from the major categories (allegedly) still didn't prevent backlashes over #GrammysSoMale and Kendrick Lamar losing Album of the Year again. I've always read that actors are the ones who are the most vociferous about objecting to the tech categories being shunted to the side, seeing it is disrespectful to people whom they know are essential to moviemaking and don't get the glory that the stars do. It will be interesting to hear the "off the record" indusrty reactions to this Popularity Contest Oscar that's been dreamed up.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Dejana

[methodwriter85]

2 hours ago, galaxygirl76 said:

Wasn't the best picture category originally expanded to 'allow' room for those blockbuster genre hits and then the Academy turned around and went back nominating the artsy fartsy dramas ones, like they used to do back before the expansion, with like one non drama nominated and four more dramas and no chance in hell for the non drama movie?

I don't think they've even nominated as many movies as they can now.

[Traveller519]

I'm curious what's driving this more, the producers of the Oscars desperately trying to drive their viewership numbers up (which the shorter run-time would see to indicate) or pressure from Disney and Universal, who's business plans have pushed them headstrong into IP driven/cinematic universe/blockbuster fare in recent years, which have pretty much been shut out of the Best Picture category. Warner Bros isn't far behind, though it seems to get a nominee in every couple of years.

Disney's release slate currently has nothing on it that isn't IP driven, but they're the big money player, and are contributing far more to keeping movies a viable business under the traditional distribution methods. I could see them wanting to put some hardware behind those films.

 

That being said, I liked that the Oscars provided an inherent marketing avenue for the smaller films. Yes those can trend more artsy and pretentious, but that's okay in my book. A few years ago I started striving to watch all the Oscar films before the awards, and it lead me to films like Brooklyn and Lion I would not have found otherwise. Brooklyn is now one of my favourite films of the decade. I've watched it multiple times. I'm still going to see every MCU film on opening weekend, I'll hit up the popular fare, but I like that there was an avenue/motivation to drive film-making that wasn't all blockbuster-centric.

[memememe76]

This is a terrible move. Is there a reason why Black Panther could not be nominated in the normal category? Get Out was nominated last year. Are movies like Dunkirk, La La Land and Hidden Figures not popular enough?

Edited August 9, 2018 by memememe76

[ruby24]

Yeah, this was apparently due to pressure from ABC to change the show and force the big movies in there because of the ratings drop.

 But I don't think adding a category like this is automatically going to make people want to watch. It feels like a second class category, a "fake" Oscar created to bring eyeballs to the show. But it's insulting for the movies, isn't it, to say hey you're popular but not "good" enough to win the real Best Picture prize. And what do they want, for it to be filled with all franchise movies or something? Do prestige hits like Dunkirk, La La Land or Hidden Figures not count as "popular," like you said? And how do they force that to happen?

Black Panther COULD get nominated for Best Picture easily. If they went back to a flat ten nominees, I guarantee you that it would be (and probably so would Incredibles 2). In 2009-2010, they had a system of 10 nominees, and movies like The Blind Side, Toy Story 3, Inception, Up, etc were nominated alongside the smaller movies. It was a system that pretty much gave them exactly what they were looking for, a mix of popular and arthouse.

Then apparently what happened was voters complained that it was too hard to fill out ten slots for Best Picture (oh please) and asked to go back to five. So they complied. Now the voters fill out five slots and they extrapolate from that to nominate the top vote getters, which vary from 7-9 nominees every year. But the big hits and the animated movies went away again when they reverted back to this system.

So the solution here is pretty simple, in my opinion. Go back to the flat ten and tell the voters to suck it up. If you can't watch ten movies over a year you shouldn't be a voting member of the Academy.

Edited August 9, 2018 by ruby24

[scarynikki12]

1 hour ago, ruby24 said:

So the solution here is pretty simple, in my opinion. Go back to the flat ten and tell the voters to suck it up. If you can't watch ten movies over a year you shouldn't be a voting member of the Academy.

It's easier than that as they get screeners sent to their homes.  All the voters have to do is carve out a couple of days to watch any nominated movies they haven't already seen.  This type of system is an excellent way to see the various movies that are hard to find so, naturally, a lot of the voters apparently don't take advantage. 

My hope is that this announcement is the Academy's way of testing public opinion on their proposed changes and decide not to go with a Best Popular Film category.  I do think it's good that they're brainstorming new categories, but that's not one that's needed.  It will just end up like the Animated Oscar, where the recipient chooses to be honored and excited (as they should) but it's ultimately an excuse to not treat animation as seriously as live action.  I guarantee that the best movie ever made could be animated and not get treated like a serious BP contender because they have their own category.  Same with a Best Popular category.  Even if they plan is to start this category in 2020 (they didn't explicitly say), it feels like an attempt to minimize Black Panther as a Picture contender.  I've read speculation that Disney may be behind this move, as they want higher ratings for ABC and recognition for themselves, but there's a solution without adding a bullshit category: Special Oscar.  These have been awarded over the years for specific achievements and aren't dependent on the voting body or a particular category.  Give Kevin Feige/Marvel/Disney a special Oscar for the MCU rather than create a new competitive category. 

I'm also against the plan to give out awards during commercials because this is the one time each year that the non-actor members of the movie business get the opportunity to be recognized for their work and for a huge audience to hear the names and see the faces of these professionals.  They deserve to be given the same airtime as the actors and directors and that shouldn't be taken away just because the average person can't recognize them on the street.  The Tonys and Grammys both do this and, while I get that time is a concern, it is so disrespectful.  "You're good enough to win a major industry award but your parents, kids, BFF, mentor won't get to hear your heartfelt speech because you've never been on a magazine cover! Sucks for you!"  Bite me, Academy. 

I agree with various people that they should just lean into the long runtime.  They get major ratings and, despite complaints, most of the audience watches the whole time.  It's a huge industry event that the general public wants to watch.  Embrace that and focus on putting on a good show.  Can things get cut?  Absolutely (like Kimmel's segment with random people on the street) but don't do it just because there's some complaints that it goes longer than three hours. 

[Shannon L.]

8 hours ago, scarynikki12 said:

I'm also against the plan to give out awards during commercials because this is the one time each year that the non-actor members of the movie business get the opportunity to be recognized for their work and for a huge audience to hear the names and see the faces of these professionals.  They deserve to be given the same airtime as the actors and directors and that shouldn't be taken away just because the average person can't recognize them on the street.  The Tonys and Grammys both do this and, while I get that time is a concern, it is so disrespectful.  "You're good enough to win a major industry award but your parents, kids, BFF, mentor won't get to hear your heartfelt speech because you've never been on a magazine cover! Sucks for you!"  Bite me, Academy. 

Yeah, I don't like this one at all. 

And all of your arguments against the new category have included some really good points and have me reconsidering my initial feelings about it. 

[memememe76]

There have been plenty of general audience crowdpleasers that won Best Picture: Titanic, Gladiator, Braveheart, The Lord of the Rings, Dances With Wolves, Chicago, to name a few. And plenty more that were nominated, like Field of Dreams, Star Wars, Aviator, Up, Gravity, etc. But the studios have basically given up on the mid-budget movie. So, as filmgoers, we either have superhero movies with gigantic budgets or teeny art flicks. And the small studios use the Oscar season to hype up their teeny art flicks. The Academy can only award what is available. They don't make the actual movies. 

Edited August 9, 2018 by memememe76

[NUguy514]

20 hours ago, Spartan Girl said:

So just like the Best Animated Feature Category was created to ensure cartoons will never win Best Picture, this category will ensure that they can keep snubbing good movies in favor of the pretentious shit that that nobody really sees yet always win Best Picture.

Popular doesn't automatically equate to good (neither does arty, for that matter); "pretentious shit" is not what always wins Best Picture either.  Plenty of popular films have been nominated for Best Picture because they are also good movies, and a number of them have even won.  I've seen every Best Picture winner, and my two favorites are on opposite ends of pretty much every spectrum: LotR: Return of the King and Moonlight.

It's interesting that there has been no information about what it would take to qualify for this stupid award.  Is it solely about box office totals?  How much will it take?  $100 million?  $150 million?  $300 million?  $500 million?  It would also potentially preclude end-of-year releases from qualifying since they might not get to that box office threshold by the time nomination ballots are due.

Let's be clear: this isn't about nominating popular films since the good ones are nominated; this is about nominating superhero films, specifically Disney's superhero films.  I don't even think it's about ratings because Disney knows that the ratings' landscape has changed so much; Disney wants all of its Marvel movies and its Star Wars movies and its Pirates movies and whatever franchise movies it's getting from Fox to get statues, quality be damned.

[ruby24]

1 hour ago, NUguy514 said:

Let's be clear: this isn't about nominating popular films since the good ones are nominated; this is about nominating superhero films, specifically Disney's superhero films.  I don't even think it's about ratings because Disney knows that the ratings' landscape has changed so much; Disney wants all of its Marvel movies and its Star Wars movies and its Pirates movies and whatever franchise movies it's getting from Fox to get statues, quality be damned.

I agree. I almost wonder if they should call it Best Franchise Film, since that's clearly what ABC execs want it to be. I mean, if it was inhabited by movies like Hidden Figures, La La Land, Dunkirk, etc- movies that would make it into Best Picture anyway, but are clearly "popular," would that satisfy what they were looking for? I don't think so. 

They want movies that make over $300 million or something and the only ones that do that are franchise films (for the most part). Maybe hit comedies, of which there are few, but something like Bridesmaids, which was never going to get in to Best Picture. They have to do a lot of qualifying and defining what makes this "popular" movie to get what they want in there.

[galaxygirl76]

4 hours ago, memememe76 said:

There have been plenty of general audience crowdpleasers that won Best Picture: Titanic, Gladiator, Braveheart, The Lord of the Rings, Dances With Wolves, Chicago, to name a few. And plenty more that were nominated, like Field of Dreams, Star Wars, Aviator, Up, Gravity, etc. But the studios have basically given up on the mid-budget movie. So, as filmgoers, we either have superhero movies with gigantic budgets or teeny art flicks. And the small studios use the Oscar season to hype up their teeny art flicks. The Academy can only award what is available. They don't make the actual movies. 

Yes they can award what's available but for some reason certain genres get looked down upon. Comedy? Good luck even getting nominated. Foreign movies? Stick to your own category. Same with Animation. Silence o the Lambs win is still considered shocking even though it was the best movie of the year(imo). Some do make it to the big category but no chance in hell they will ever win. And when it comes to the acting categories it's not anything better. I still think Johnny Depp should have won best actor for the first Pirates but his nomination was considered as recognition enough. The supporting categories are more open for the other genres but best actor and actress rarely venture away from drama and the more drama the better.

[Fukui San]

No one asked me, but here's what I'd do instead of a Popular Film category. Have 10 Best Film nominees, but include the top nomination vote getters from desired subcategories.

The 10 nominees must include at least:

• 1 Animated Movie
• 2 of the top 5 highest grossing movies
• 1 comedy
• 1 drama
• The rest are "at large" slots which will go to the small, arty films we expect to actually win Best Picture

That will ensure that a few crowd pleasers can be featured in the show to pump the ratings, but the ultimate Best Picture will likely be the same. Don't label the nominated films with the subcategory label. These are just the 10 nominees. But have those requirements in the background. If voters only want to vote for 5 they can vote for 5, but 2 of nominees will be blockbusters no matter what. Knowing that there are these subcategories will incentivize voters to spend a vote or two on a blockbuster or animated movie if they have an opinion on which one from that sector is more deserving.

So if we were to apply that to 2017, the top 5 grossing movies were The Last Jedi, Wonder Woman, Beauty and the Beast, Jumanji, and Guardians of the Galaxy 2.  So probably 2 of the 3 among TLJ, WW, and BatB. Best comedy requirement would have probably gotten The Big Sick, Jumanji, or Guardians of the Galaxy on the list. Best Animated would have gotten Coco or Moana on the list. Top drama vote getter is probably already represented among the existing nominees.  So the slate of 10 nominees would look something like:

• The Shape of Water
• Phantom Thread
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Call Me By Your Name
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• Coco
• The Big Sick
• Wonder Woman
• Beauty and the Beast

With three actual nominees now out of the slate. In this case I chose Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, and The Post, but the actual results might differ. That's the tradeoff. The bottom of the current nominee slate for diversity in the type of movie. It's like choosing the NCAA March Madness field knowing that you have to populate it with automatic bids from every conference, even knowing that some of the teams have no chance. Just my proposal.

[Shannon L.]

9 minutes ago, Fukui San said:

No one asked me, but here's what I'd do instead of a Popular Film category. Have 10 Best Film nominees, but include the top nomination vote getters from desired subcategories.

The 10 nominees must include at least:

• 1 Animated Movie
• 2 of the top 5 highest grossing movies
• 1 comedy
• 1 drama
• The rest are "at large" slots which will go to the small, arty films we expect to actually win Best Picture

This is Ron Howard's idea:

Ron Howard‏Verified account @RealRonHoward 19h19 hours ago

Ron Howard Retweeted Variety

I’m a member but not an officer. But I wanna try this out on you. It’s off the top of my head but how about 5 categories of best pic w/5 nominees each: Best Drama, Best Animated, Best Comedy, Best Fantasy, Best Documentary and then a final Best Pic chosen from those categories?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I think both your idea and Ron's are better than the Academy's.

[Dejana]

Mandating a certain number of genre slots for Best Picture is too much of a quota system for my liking, and anyway, it seemed to more or less happen that way organically with the voting method in the category for 2009 and 2010 (set 10 nominees of the top 10 total vote getters). Going back to that system would have caused much less of an uproar than this new Participation Trophy category.

[methodwriter85]

Just saw Eighth Grade. I don't think it will be an Oscar contender, but I can see it being in the Independent Spirit Awards, as well as the Golden Globes.

[Ms Blue Jay]

I didn't see what was wrong with expanding the category to 9 or 10 Best Picture Nominees.  The movies that got nominated in 2009 and 2010 were great, well-loved movies.  I don't get any argument against that that isn't just elitist nonsense.

Black Panther was the best movie of 2018 so far, in my opinion - I don't REALLY see it being topped (meaning in my personal list) as I liked it better than anything else in 2017 as well - and ever since I watched it I wanted it to win a bunch of Oscars and be nominated for Best Picture.  This move just kind of shits all over that.....Really don't like it.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay

[ruby24]

I WISH they could figure this out and just go back the 10 nominees. The only objection to that was voters complaining they didn't want to fill out ten slots, and you know what, that objection should be ignored. That was before they expanded the voting membership, I'm sure the new people will have no trouble with it. It's a process that gave them exactly the kind of mix of films that they wanted- Black Panther would be guaranteed a slot on the list. Very likely so would Incredibles 2 (since Toy Story 3 and Up both got in when they had ten before).

It's so simple.

[Shannon L.]

I'd love to see Crazy Rich Asians get nominated for Set Design and Costumes.  It's a beautiful movie.

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 8/12/2018 at 6:30 PM, Ms Blue Jay said:

Black Panther was the best movie of 2018 so far, in my opinion - I don't REALLY see it being topped (meaning in my personal list) as I liked it better than anything else in 2017 as well - and ever since I watched it I wanted it to win a bunch of Oscars and be nominated for Best Picture.  This move just kind of shits all over that.....Really don't like it.

 

Yeah, I was wrong.  Crazy Rich Asians topped it for me, but I am Asian, so I spent a lot of the time crying.  Now which movie was better, I think Black Panther was probably better, but CRA was my personal fave (so far.)

Mission Impossible Fallout is also up there.  The stunts were insane.  The editing, the fight choreography.  Absolutely insane.

Chadwick's performance in BP is still my favourite of the year.

Edited August 25, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay

[Dejana]

The fall film season is here with the festivals in Venice and Telluride underway, and Toronto soon to come. So far, the best reviewed awards contenders appear to be Roma and The Favourite, so Disney ABC is probably thinking they dreamed up that Popular Film category just in time!  Though A Star Is Born is also going over pretty well so far, will be a big box office hit and seems likely (as of now, so much can change) to contend in major categories (Picture, Popular Film, Actor, Actress—in another year, I'd say Director, but the category is awfully stacked), plus will probably win for Song, and that would keep AMPAS happy, if not ABC (as ASIB is a Warner Bros film). 

Also, we already have our first awards season controversy with First Man (though its reviews started off strong)—there are outraged politician tweets, boycott threats, downvotes on IMDb and everything! Damien Chazelle has got to be thinking, "This again? Oh, come on!" 

Edited September 1, 2018 by Dejana

[NUguy514]

53 minutes ago, Dejana said:

Also, we already have our first awards season controversy with First Man (though its reviews started off strong)—there are outraged politician tweets, boycott threats, downvotes on IMDb and everything!

What it must be like to live in the heads of some of these people...it's terrifying to consider, really.

[starri]

3 hours ago, Dejana said:

Also, we already have our first awards season controversy with First Man (though its reviews started off strong)—there are outraged politician tweets, boycott threats, downvotes on IMDb and everything! Damien Chazelle has got to be thinking, "This again? Oh, come on!" 

Is it weird that I have zero interest in First Man?  I'm a huge nerd, and I own several NASA documentaries and watch satellite launches on YouTube, and yet the trailer left me really cold, which perhaps says more for my dislike of Ryan Gosling than anything else.

[Shannon L.]

21 minutes ago, starri said:

Is it weird that I have zero interest in First Man?  I'm a huge nerd, and I own several NASA documentaries and watch satellite launches on YouTube, and yet the trailer left me really cold, which perhaps says more for my dislike of Ryan Gosling than anything else.

I feel the same way.  I love that whole time period from the space program to politics and neither of the trailers did anything for me.  I personally think it looks to artsy.  However, the controversy has guaranteed that I will at least go see it during AMC's $5 Tuesday  :)

[Bastet]

Oh my, I hadn't heard of the "OMG, they don't specifically show the planting of the flag" controversy, and now that I have looked it up, I will be sure to see First Man (something I'd have gotten around to regardless, because of my interest in the space program).  What a ridiculous thing to get riled up about (a sentiment shared by Armstrong's sons and the author of the book on which this is based, according to the article I read).

[Dejana]

1 hour ago, starri said:

Is it weird that I have zero interest in First Man?  I'm a huge nerd, and I own several NASA documentaries and watch satellite launches on YouTube, and yet the trailer left me really cold, which perhaps says more for my dislike of Ryan Gosling than anything else.

Not really, I've seen lots of lukewarm reactions on the movie/awards sites I frequent, since the project was announced and after the first trailer (the second one released this week is a bit more engaging for me). I still planned to see it, because I like the people involved and I like space stories, but understood some of the fears it would be predictable, paint by numbers Oscar bait, and Neil Armstrong wasn't known for being the most dynamic guy (and in some ways the reviewers have validated these criticisms, even while being positive overall). Oddly enough, I think this backlash might help its critical/awards reception a bit, or at least give it some free publicity.

Edited September 2, 2018 by Dejana

[Bastet]

4 minutes ago, Dejana said:

I still planned to see it, because I like the people involved and I like space stories, but understood some of the fears it would be predictable, paint by numbers Oscar bait, and Neil Armstrong wasn't known for being the most dynamic guy (and in some ways the reviewers have validated these criticisms, even while being positive overall). Oddly enough, I think this backlash might help its critical/awards reception a bit, or at least give it some free publicity.

I agree, as it worked on me.  Indeed, this sounds like a feel-good, simplistic or at least not at all probing film, aiming to delve into the rather boring man behind a dynamic event.  But I love the space program, so I'd watch it on DVD or at least TV.  But to counteract some bullshit protest like this, yeah, I'd hit the cinema.

[kiddo82]

Controversy (or should I say "controversy") aside, I was thinking the exact same thing about how a biopic about Neil Armstrong didn't sound particularly interesting to me.  I don't know.  I guess I don't have much faith that it's not going to be some inoffensive paint by numbers triumph over adversity story that we've seen time and time again about insert inspirational true life hero here.  And I quite honestly don't know anything about Neil Armstrong so he could have some really cool backstory that I've never heard about.  Lately, the most interesting biopics I've seen have either been about people/stories I didn't even know existed (like Hidden Figures, although not technically a biography but still) or just stories told in a non-traditional way.  Say what you want about the Steve Jobs movie with Fassbender, and it's not great, but I liked the framing device of using the three release launches as the three acts.  At least it's a different way to convey a story than "Steve Jobs was born in blah blah blah and he grew up to be the man who invented the device you're communicating on right now!"  Not saying that conventional can't be good, but we've seen it time and time again so in order to really separate itself it better be DAMN good.  Barring that, it seems like a $4.99 to rent on Fios at best or a wait til it's free with prime membership at worst.

Edited September 2, 2018 by kiddo82

[Dejana]

Popular Film category postponed for now:

 

http://oscars.org/news/academy-determines-new-oscars-category-merits-further-study

[starri]

So, will they be forced to nominate Black Panther as Best Picture, or will they just ignore it entirely now?

[AshleyN]

So is it too to predict Roma to dominate the critics awards? The fact that that it's Alfonso Cuaron's follow-up to Gravity means it will automatically start out with much more visibility than most foreign language films which will help in the actual Oscar race too. I don't think it'll be able to content for the win (outside of the foreign language category obviously) but it should at least be in the mix for nominations for both Picture and Director.

I'm also going to go ahead and predict A Star is Born as this years designated "early favourite status turns into vicious backlash" movie.

Edited September 9, 2018 by AshleyN

[memememe76]

I cannot remember the last time a romantic movie Oscar frontrunner has NOT received a backlash, whether they win or not. Maybe Sense and Sensibility?

[Dejana]

1 hour ago, memememe76 said:

I cannot remember the last time a romantic movie Oscar frontrunner has NOT received a backlash, whether they win or not. Maybe Sense and Sensibility?

Pretty much all Oscar frontrunners in the last 20 years or so have gotten a backlash whether they were romantic in nature or not, but love stories (whether comedic or dramatic) often tend to get dismissed as frivolous and not as weighty as, say, a family drama or war movie. Still, even a war movie can get dismissed as "obvious awards bait" or "too grisly" or whatever.

A Star Is Born goes into some pretty serious areas, at least, so I think it will be less susceptible to being dismissed as lightweight, though this film festival season has brought on multiple films about female singers rising to/coping with fame (Vox Lux, Her Smell, Wild Rose), and I already saw one critic tweet that Natalie Portman played a better version of Lady Gaga than Lady Gaga.  So maybe that will be the angle, that ASIB is all very glossy and Hollywood compared to the gritty indie movie over there, among other things.

Whatever the whisper campaigns are, I think an Oscar frontrunner can generally pull out the win so long as there's not another movie hanging around as a clear second all season, the way Moonlight was with La La Land. Even the year when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture and Gravity got the most overall wins, there was American Hustle, which went home empty handed, but got 10 nominations, 4 in acting, so clearly it had big supporters in the Academy.

Edited September 11, 2018 by Dejana

[AshleyN]

On 9/9/2018 at 5:52 PM, AshleyN said:

I'm also going to go ahead and predict A Star is Born as this years designated "early favourite status turns into vicious backlash" movie.

It won't be a "favourite" in the same way, but go ahead and add Green Book to this if it becomes more than a TIFF thing. Well meaning or not, I'm pretty sure this is going to get ripped when Twitter gets hold of it.

[AshleyN]

17 hours ago, AshleyN said:

It won't be a "favourite" in the same way, but go ahead and add Green Book to this if it becomes more than a TIFF thing. Well meaning or not, I'm pretty sure this is going to get ripped when Twitter gets hold of it.

Aaaaaand it just won the People's Choice at TIFF (a virtual guarantee of a Best Picture nomination in recent years), so that will put a target square on it's back.

Kind of surprising to see A Star Is Born not place at all, but that might be for the best -- it avoids to much overexposure/pressure at this point. It obviously didn't hurt The Shape of Water last year. On the other hand both Roma and If Beale Street Could Talk struck me as critics darlings that might not connect with a wider audience, so doing so well in a contest that tends to lean more populist is probably more important for them.

Edited September 16, 2018 by AshleyN

[starri]

The National Board of Review kicks us off for the year.

Best Film: GREEN BOOK

Best Director: Bradley Cooper, A STAR IS BORN

Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen, GREEN BOOK

Best Actress: Lady Gaga, A STAR IS BORN

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Elliott, A STAR IS BORN

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Original Screenplay: Paul Schrader, FIRST REFORMED

Best Adapted Screenplay: Barry Jenkins, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Best Animated Feature: INCREDIBLES 2

They also put Black Panther on their Top Ten list.

[thuganomics85]

So, basically, the NBR really loved Green Book, A Star is Born, and If Beale Street Could Talk.  We'll see if it amounts to anything, but their pick for Best Pic last time was The Post, and that went home empty handed (and I personally found it totally underwhelming.)

I haven't been paying much attention to Beale Street (outside knowing it is from Barry Jenkins), so I had no idea Regina King was in it.  I imagine she'll definitely be a frontrunner because judging from all of the Emmys she has been racking up, she clearly seems beloved in the industry.

Edited November 28, 2018 by thuganomics85

[methodwriter85]

This just feels like it's a much weaker year than 2017 was. I was way more excited last year. However, because it's a week year, I'm hoping that Elsie Fisher might be able to sneak in, who did just win the Gotham Breakthrough Actor Award.

[AshleyN]

New York Film Critics Circle:

Best Picture: “Roma”

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”

Best Screenplay: Paul Schrader, “First Reformed”

Best Actress: Regina Hall, “Support the Girls”

Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Best Cinematography: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuaron

Best Non-fiction Film: “Minding the Gap,” director Bing Liu

Best Foreign Language Film: “Cold War,” director Pawel Pawlikowski

Best Animated Feature: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Best First Film: “Eighth Grade,” director Bo Burnham

 

• As expected, Roma is off to a hot start with the critics. It'll be interesting to see if other groups make an effort to go their own way, or if Roma is too strong to be denied. It will still face an uphill battle at the Oscars, given both the foreign-language AND Netflix factors, but a critics sweep (along with what seems to be a less competitive year in general) would certainly help matters.
• For the second year in a row New York decides to go off the board with one of their actress picks. I haven't seen the film, but people who have seem super happy about Regina Hall's win, so that's nice. She is also apparently the first black actress to ever win this particular award.
• Kind of surprised to see The Favourite shut out completely. I don't believe NYFCC publicizes their runners-up like other groups, so who knows if it lost some tight categories or if they just didn't care for it.

Edited November 29, 2018 by AshleyN

[scarynikki12]

I will lose my mind if Regina King wins an Oscar. I’m already looking forward to her acceptance speech. 

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 11/28/2018 at 2:17 AM, methodwriter85 said:

This just feels like it's a much weaker year than 2017 was. I was way more excited last year. However, because it's a week year, I'm hoping that Elsie Fisher might be able to sneak in, who did just win the Gotham Breakthrough Actor Award.

I've liked the movies and performances so much better this year than last year!   This has been my favourite movie year since 2015.  

[Shannon L.]

2 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

I've liked the movies and performances so much better this year than last year!   This has been my favourite movie year since 2015.  

I have to agree with you.  Last year, of the Best Picture nominees, I only wanted to see 3 of them and decided to try two of them.  I liked the first three, but knew they didn't have a chance, and of the other two, I thought one was just ok and hated the other one so much that I wasn't even going to make myself try the rest of them.  Although, I really liked 3 of the 5 Best Adapted Screenplay movies.

This year, though, there were several I wanted to see.  Some still have yet to come out and I'm anxiously waiting.  Some definitely won't be nominated, but the others might be.  I can't wait to see what's nominated this year (and hopefully, I'll have seen them or will want to see them).

[Ms Blue Jay]

On 8/25/2018 at 12:48 PM, Ms Blue Jay said:

Chadwick's performance in BP is still my favourite of the year.

More favourite acting this year:  Rami Malek (in Bohemian Rhapsody which I know is very controversial) and Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born are now my favourite performances.  I also liked Blake Lively in A Simple Favor.  I guess I still have a bunch more to see.  I've been procrastinating on some.

Edited December 3, 2018 by Ms Blue Jay