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S04.E09: French Elections


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The presidential election in France could determine the political future of Europe. John Oliver visits an excessively French bistro to deliver an urgent message to voters.

 

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Larry Skywalker and the Space Bors! You're our only hope! Crêpe ingredients as political protest. Never change, France. Except Le Pen. She can get lost anytime now, forever.

When Oliver made that accurate burn about HIMYM, my mind went blank and after a couple seconds I said out loud: "Wait... DOES he have a name?" This is why I will always look forward to LWT; jokes about something that you have never given a second thought to, but the observation is so true you can't believe it never occurred to you before that moment. 

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I'm glad the French election was covered. It's been in the news lately in the run up to the election first round. I've never heard LePen talk, but she is an awful woman. 

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As a non-resident, I think John. The SNL and LWT weekly recaps are about all the Trump administration news I can really stand to bear. I'm glad that Jon gets his digs in, and gets out. The French Election stuff was news to me, and quite interesting, which is when I find the show is at its best. 

What should be the most worrying thing, though, is how nations have become NIMBY populists. It's a lot easier to say that another country should stop acting a certain way. But when the nativism issues are front and center, in our own countries its been easy to get the populations riled up to back them. Fortunately the recent Dutch elections appear to have been at least something of a rebuff of this trend in Europe, but they haven't had the very public terror incidents that France has.

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Watching Geraldo Rivera gleefully chortle that our president is a bully was about as sickening a sight as I can imagine. I don't know if I've ever seen someone praising bullies before. 

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It was good to see Ollie open the show by mocking Sean Spicer's massive brainfuck last week. All shows that have been off this past week need to do this, because Spicer deserves it.

Anyone wonder if Putin has his Russian trolls attempting to sway the French election?

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Probably. I've read that he's trying to affect elections in Europe.

Great show. Honestly, I haven't been paying too much attention to France and the election. It's absolutely shocking how confident those French commentators are that Le Pen won't be elected. I guess it's the French superiority. "The U.S. is stupid enough to elect Trump, but we were never do that." Wake up! We know that of which we speak. John's B&W ending with him pleading in French to vote and to reject Le Pen was magnifique!

The first part of the show was great as well. Spicey... well, that whole business was such a fuckup. I can't imagine that Drumpf is pleased with him. DT is so big on people looking good on camera.

And speaking of Drumpf, he can't admit he was wrong, can he. About NATO he says, "I said it was obsolete. It is no longer obsolete." See, HE didn't change his mind; NATO changed. That's how he frames it. And then about China being a currency manipulator, he tells the Wall St Journal, "They're not currency manipulators," and then "Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem?" Again, he doesn't ever say he was wrong or that he was making grand declarations out of blatant ignorance. Like John said, we have a leader operating on a learner's permit.

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7 minutes ago, peeayebee said:

The first part of the show was great as well. Spicey... well, that whole business was such a fuckup. I can't imagine that Drumpf is pleased with him. DT is so big on people looking good on camera.

What I don't get, is this current era of doubling down on everything. All Spicer had to say was, "wow, that was really dumb. I'm so sorry. I just wasn't thinking clearly. You all know that it gets stressful up here and I just blew it." And the reporter even gave him the chance to do just that. 

Geraldo epitomizes it, but the media were fawning about all the bombings. Random, indiscriminate bombing with no strategy. This is causing far more problems. 

I also like the clip of Trump not being able to answer whether he authorized the bombing. He's not going to take responsibility for anything. 

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As a frenchman, it's interesting to see John & Last Week Tonight cover our elections.

Not entirely accurate or exhaustive enough (they downplayed the extent to which Fillon is a very "US republican" type politician, very religious, anti-social issues, and über-burdened by scandals & fraud ; they downplayed Melenchon's huge Bernie-like momentum & orator skills ; they overestimated Marine's chances to get elected to the Presidency ; they kinda overplayed the threat of a Frexit), but interesting.

Edited by Kaoteek
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57 minutes ago, ganesh said:

What I don't get, is this current era of doubling down on everything. All Spicer had to say was, "wow, that was really dumb. I'm so sorry. I just wasn't thinking clearly. You all know that it gets stressful up here and I just blew it." And the reporter even gave him the chance to do just that. 

Exactly. It's like Trump and the people around him have been told never to admit they're wrong. Never to admit they've changed their mind and never to admit there's a problem and that just doesn't work anymore. People are to savvy and everything is on camera. If Spicer had said something like what you said, I think people would have gotten over it fairly quickly. He had the opening to walk it back in the room but there's just such a need to never be wrong that it hurts them more than it helps them.

Slightly off-topic but I'm reminded of the few minutes of CNN I saw recently where they were talking about Trump golfing up against clips of Trump going after Obama for golfing. The Trump surrogates twist themselves into knots to justify that rather than say "I wish he'd golf less and spend more time in Washington" or "Now that he's in the job, Trump has realized that a few hours a week of leisure time is key to staying focused and making good decisions and his past critiques were overblown." This constant need to never be wrong is just insane to me.

As for Le Pen, she's truly terrifying and I do hope the French people turn out to vote and shut her down. I'd seen clips and read interviews so nothing she said there surprised me, but it's still always shocking because that sort of hate always is.

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Thing is, with Le Pen and the Front National, they never got more than 20% in a national election, because they mostly have a definite amount of voters (roughly 20% of France's electorate), that is slowly growing, but is still way insufficient to get to the Presidency.

When Marine's dad got through to the second round, in 2002, it was with 16.9%, and he barely got up to 17.8% for the second round, which got Jacques Chirac elected with 82% of the votes (not because he was liked, but because the entire political spectrum said no to extremist ideas and no to Le Pen). And the fear of the FN got abstention down during the second round.

When Marine replaced her dad, five years ago, she got roughly the same score, but couldn't go through to the second round. And even if the current polls are somehow underestimating her current score (she's at 20-23%, right now), and she gets, let's say, 30% of the overall votes, there's just no mathematical way for her to get anywhere near 51% during the second round. The Front has such a stigma and a dreadful past attached to it that there's just no way she'll get enough voters behind her.

The far-left, the moderate-left, the centrist-left won't vote for her. The centrists won't vote for her (they've got Macron). The centrist & most moderate right voters won't go anywhere near the FN, and Macron is close enough to their values that they'll rather go to him. And abstention will go down if Marine goes through to round 2.

(right now, I'm expecting the exact same situation than in 2002 : Le Pen vs Macron, with a huge 75/25 win for Macron after everybody rallies around him for round 2)

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Why would anybody call it a 'French Brexit' when you could just call it "Frexit"?!? You can re-mash words, you know! (Clearly, this exercises me perhaps more than it should, but: geez, people.)

3 hours ago, Victor the Crab said:

Anyone wonder if Putin has his Russian trolls attempting to sway the French election?

Not wondering. He's been romancing Le Pen pretty openly, and hackers need to have something new to do...  Besides, Putin's said no-way-no-how, which is as clear an indicator of 'yep, sure thing!' that there is.

Edited by attica
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3 hours ago, Kaoteek said:

(right now, I'm expecting the exact same situation than in 2002 : Le Pen vs Macron, with a huge 75/25 win for Macron after everybody rallies around him for round 2)

 

I'm in no way doubting your knowledge of France's elections or expected outcomes but cast thine eyes towards the American White House.  That wasn't supposed to happen by every poll available and truly, electing someone without even a tiny bit of political experience to the highest political office in the land was something declared entirely impossible.  That did not actually preclude it happening, as it turned out. 

I hope you are entirely right but there's been something of a global rise in really rather appalling individuals on both a personal and a professional level being elected anyway.   I appreciate John's piece.  

7 hours ago, iMonrey said:

Watching Geraldo Rivera gleefully chortle that our president is a bully was about as sickening a sight as I can imagine. I don't know if I've ever seen someone praising bullies before. 

 
 

Yeah, apparently we're now bully-positive.  Don't worry, I have a plentiful supply of all manner of alcohol and am willing to share lest you feel the need to join me in a spot of despair drinking.   

 

3 hours ago, vibeology said:

What I don't get, is this current era of doubling down on everything. All Spicer had to say was, "wow, that was really dumb. I'm so sorry. I just wasn't thinking clearly. You all know that it gets stressful up here and I just blew it." And the reporter even gave him the chance to do just that. 

 
 

Yeah, and it's apparently doubly important to dig deep on the truly horrifying gaffes being committed to the digital permanent record, no less.  Maybe try admitting, "I misspoke, that was wrong, it was stupid and I'm sorry for any offense I've caused."   Humility, it looks good on everyone.  Very slimming, kind to the complexion.  Someone should probably tweet that towards Pennsylvania avenue, 'tis the only way of reaching them and they clearly missed the memo.  

My husband hadn't seen any of that jaw-dropping Spicer material and kept saying in astonishment, "Is this real? This can't be real?!?"  One would think, right?

Cheers.  *clinkclink* 

Edited by stillshimpy
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7 hours ago, Victor the Crab said:

Anyone wonder if Putin has his Russian trolls attempting to sway the French election?

There was coverage in last week's news of Facebook going on an all-out push to delete fake news accounts in France in advance of the elections—tens of thousands, apparently. They have teamed up with French news media to do more fact-checking. 

I very much appreciated the dig at Mel Gibson in the midst of the anti anti-Semitism rant. Watching him get lionized at the Oscars was stomach churning. But at least he's not running for office anywhere...

7 hours ago, iMonrey said:

Watching Geraldo Rivera gleefully chortle that our president is a bully was about as sickening a sight as I can imagine. I don't know if I've ever seen someone praising bullies before.

My jaw dropped. Comparing ISIS or Kim Jong Un to a bully, sure, but as an aspiration for Trump?! (I mean, he's already there, but to cast it as a positive?) 

Start to finish, an eggs-ellent episode! (See what I did there?) < -- Every time this was tacked on, it made it so much worse!

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2 minutes ago, ahisma said:

Start to finish, an eggs-ellent episode! (See what I did there?) < -- Every time this was tacked on, it made it so much worse!

I loved the one reporter near the end who was being slapped on the back for saying the cheesy "eggs-ellent" line, and he stonefaced replied that he was just reading the teleprompter. He seemed almost disgusted.

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On Monday morning, Rivera responded to the segment with a tweet:

To #JohnOliver #moab killed 90+ #ISIS. Remember them? baby killing terrorists, throat cutting savages who rape & burn religious minorities?

But this tiff goes back far further than Sunday night. It's impossible to know whether Rivera is aware of this, but Oliver has actually been calling him out for at least five years. Back in 2012, when Oliver was still a correspondent for Jon Stewart's iteration of The Daily Show, he and fellow correspondent Wyatt Cenac starred in a segment mocking Rivera's comment that Trayvon Martin, the black Florida teenager fatally shot by George Zimmerman, made himself suspicious by wearing a hoodie. Cenac and Oliver reported "live" from Sanford, Florida; Oliver was wearing a hoodie in "solidarity," while Cenac opted for a less "threatening" look: a propeller beanie.

 

Why Is John Oliver Feuding with Geraldo Rivera?

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20 hours ago, iMonrey said:

Watching Geraldo Rivera gleefully chortle that our president is a bully was about as sickening a sight as I can imagine. I don't know if I've ever seen someone praising bullies before. 

IKR?  I mean, I thought for sure Rivera was going to compare Isis to the bullies, not the president of the US.  I mean wtf??!!

 

20 hours ago, Victor the Crab said:

Anyone wonder if Putin has his Russian trolls attempting to sway the French election?

Its my understanding that the leak of Fillon's wife/children payolla scandal was done by Wikileaks, who got the info from Russian hackers.  And Putin is definitely courting Le Pen.  I wouldn't be surprised to learn about fake news and troll bots there too.

 

17 hours ago, ganesh said:

I also like the clip of Trump not being able to answer whether he authorized the bombing. He's not going to take responsibility for anythin

He'll only take responsibility for successes, even when he didn't do a damn thing.  He probably wasn't sure about the public opinion yet about the moab, but I have no doubt that he just told the generals, 'do whatever you think is best' and not to bother him with the details.  He's not exactly a detail oriented guy (we just bombed Iraq, I mean Syria, I mean Egypt, I mean Dollywood)

 

While in any "normal" year Le Pen wouldn't have a chance, I think Oliver makes a good point that (1) the socialists are extremely unpopular right now; (2) there's been several terrorist attacks; (3) the French are very down on Muslims; (4) many French were very upset over the Fillon scandal; so there's a real possibility that France will echo what the US did, got a lot of the extreme voters excited and motivated to come out to vote, and a lot of the more central/reasonable voters apathetic and disappointed with government, and thus less likely to vote.  That's what got trump elected and its possible it could happen to Le Pen.  I know the friends and relatives I have in France aren't taking the threat lightly.  They are hoping that France does not do what the US did.

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The first ten minutes of this episode were just proof that the Trump Administration is the lowest of low hanging fruit. They are so incompetent and bad at their jobs, that John didn't even have to say anything, he could just play the Spicer and Trump clips and react to them, and it would have gotten uproarious laughter. It is scary how bad these people are, to hold the power they do. I'm not sure if I'm more or less scared that Trump has apparently given the military a blank cheque to do whatever they fancy.

But honestly, I couldn't quite believe that Fox would play that horrendous Toby Keith song over the bombing video. That is seriously, seriously amateur. That is 'redneck making his own youtube video' level amateur. John is absolutely right about the media praise Trump is getting now: It will just make him bomb more and more. It's clearly like a drug to him.

Simpleminded dipshits like Trump and Geraldo don't understand concepts like escalation and consequences, so they just jerk off over every American 'win', no matter how vaguely defined it is, and how murky the potential ramifications might be.

Regarding the French election, the simple truth is, if the turnout is high, Le Pen loses. She has about 26% of the vote, from a hardcore of people who adore her. She's not going to get much more than that, no matter what she says or does. So she'll probably get through the first round, then be beaten in the second, when all the rest of France votes tactically against her. This happened a decade ago, when her dad surprisingly got through to the second round, off the back of low voter turnout. The French people were shaken, and went out to vote in the second round. Jacque Chirac won with something like an 80%-20% split.

John breaking it down to the basics for his audience was quite effective. Along with a couple of fun diversions into the fringe candidates. Not much of it was new to me, as I've been following this election fairly closely. Fillon is dead in the water, but the concern now is whether Melenchon can beat Macron into the second round.

Macron is an interesting guy, and I disagree that he's not super attractive to anyone. He has rabid supporters, his whole campaign is built around passionate volunteers who truly believe in his rhetoric that he will transform France's political system. He's the only pro-EU candidate likely to get into the second round.

Le Pen is vile. She holds all her father's views, but hides them behind a pleasant exterior. And she has capitalised on all the terrorist attacks for her own political gain. The trouble is, the general climate of Europe at the moment is the friendliest to her that it ever will be. There's a lot of fear, a lot of anger, and Europe is paying the price for all of the meddling they and the US have done in the Middle East. If not for the rise of ISIS and the Syrian civil war, Le Pen is still a fringe figure in France.

This is the next test for Europe, though. The right wing were beaten in Austria, and in Holland. Next it's France. The one place I hold out no hope for progressives is in my own country, where the appallingly incompetent Theresa May has just called a snap election for June. And the only reason she's done it is because the opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is even more incompetent than she is.

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11 minutes ago, Danny Franks said:

Le Pen is vile. She holds all her father's views, but hides them behind a pleasant exterior.

Whoa! That's a pleasant exterior? She just looks like a hateful person, like all that awfulness if coming from the inside out. I haven't really followed French politics before now, but how vile was her father that she looks good by comparison?

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8 minutes ago, vibeology said:

Whoa! That's a pleasant exterior? She just looks like a hateful person, like all that awfulness if coming from the inside out. I haven't really followed French politics before now, but how vile was her father that she looks good by comparison?

Well, compared to her dad, and to the other fascists in Europe. She's not actually out on the streets harassing people, like we see the far right doing in the UK. But I concede the point, she's still not remotely pleasant.

Her father was appalling. A nazi in all but name. He's openly racist and anti-semitic. He's a Holocaust denier, he's made provocative, inflammatory statements about Islam. Marine kicked him out of the party because he wore his hatefulness proudly, while she wanted to inveigle her way into being a legitimate politician.

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8 hours ago, OneWhoLurks said:

To #JohnOliver #moab killed 90+ #ISIS. Remember them? baby killing terrorists, throat cutting savages who rape & burn religious minorities?

Taking the (fallacious imo) argument that success against IS = killing as many of them as we can, regardless that the administration hasn't defined success or the general tenents of actual strategy, the "mother of all bombs," a fingernail short of a nuclear weapon, managed to kill 90 of them? Wow, we're on our way to wiping out IS any time now! A quick search shows that it cost $17K/person to kill them. Hardly efficient. 

Of course, the cost of more innocent lives dying by IS is far greater since Trump is essentially making recruiting videos for them. 

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On 4/17/2017 at 0:40 PM, iMonrey said:

Watching Geraldo Rivera gleefully chortle that our president is a bully was about as sickening a sight as I can imagine. I don't know if I've ever seen someone praising bullies before. 

This is about as textbook 'identification to the aggressor' as I can imagine. "I was beat up and humiliated as a child. I now like and admire people who beat up and humiliate others!"

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Maybe Geraldo likes that his president is a bully because he imagines him going around beating up terrorists, but it doesn't seem to occur to him that our allies thinking our president is a bully is not a good thing. Unless he wants to start World War III.

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On 4/18/2017 at 9:17 AM, Hanahope said:

And Putin is definitely courting Le Pen.  I wouldn't be surprised to learn about fake news and troll bots there too.

"Facebook is targeting 30,000 fake accounts linked to France that are being used to spread fake news, spam, hoaxes and misinformation."--NPR

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Maybe those were some of the 25 plus 'friend' requests I got a week or so ago on Facebook.  They were all either in foreign languages (Cyrillic/ Russian, Arabic and Chinese) or decidedly foreign sounding names.  I rejected them all and reported as spam.

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On 4/18/2017 at 6:44 AM, Danny Franks said:

Regarding the French election, the simple truth is, if the turnout is high, Le Pen loses. She has about 26% of the vote, from a hardcore of people who adore her. She's not going to get much more than that, no matter what she says or does. So she'll probably get through the first round, then be beaten in the second, when all the rest of France votes tactically against her. This happened a decade ago, when her dad surprisingly got through to the second round, off the back of low voter turnout. The French people were shaken, and went out to vote in the second round. Jacque Chirac won with something like an 80%-20% split.

 

 

I think part of the point of having this segment is that in all of the "Oh how the hell did that mutant, terrible, never-supposed-to-happen result happen?!?" things across the world at this point, that was precisely what was being counted upon.  

Brexit was not supposed to happen and this was talked about so much that people did things like cast protest votes while others stayed home in droves.  In Australia, where voting is compulsory, they've got their own version of Le Pen and she's just as charming only without the attempts to be pleasant (in the Spock-has-a-beard sort of mirrorverse way).  In the U.S.  half of all eligible voters stayed home despite the fact that one of the candidates was endorsed by the KKK and the other one was not.   Something that I think would have motivated people to bestir themselves to vote but again, apparently failed to provide sufficient motivation to participate.   

I could keep going down a list because there's kind of long list of "Well, that's a scary mofo, what the hell?  Maybe don't elect that person?!?"  

So I really hope that the good people of France will be shaken and show up.  There seems to be a pandemic of apathy when it comes to this sort of "Clearly, that person should be blocked from the highest office in the land" on a global scale.  

And part of how it happened, part of why John Oliver would do the piece, is because Brexit is happening precisely because voters in the U.K. couldn't bring themselves to believe, "We will not do this as a country" and ...behold.  

So, it seems like in recent history, using that as a predictor of what is likely to happen vs. the historically-this-has-happened might be prudent.  

I genuinely hope that France has not also come down with the Apathy-towards-hatred flu that seems to have the rest of the world on mental bedrest but I am pretty certain that believing it is a given that something would not occur is actually a good part of why it happened elsewhere.  

That was John's entire, "Oh don't make the same mistake that your neighbors across a very small body of water, all things considered, did.  Your long time frenemies, the Brits thought they wouldn't do that no-good-for-anyone thing."  

Putin is in Le Pen's corner.  What has happened across the globe has relied on the apathy of a general population that actually comes from a belief that nothing changes so it probably doesn't matter what we do, that sort of thing.   

I liked John's piece but seeing the response that "the people of France were shaken and turned out to vote" makes me a) hope that is dead right and if so?  Vive la France!  b) cringe a little because that belief, in recent history, has not been turning out so well globally at this point in time.  

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I'm still trying to figure out if Le Pen is elected, and she goes through with her ban on visible religious items, will nuns be forced to remove their habits?  Will Christians not be allowed to wear cross necklaces?

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They've asked her, multiple times. And her answer changes, depending on how she's doing in the polls.

Back in February, during a political show on public tv, it went like this :

Quote

Karim Rissouli (interviewer) : " - So you agree, crosses will be banned, too ? Small crosses ? Big crosses ? Where do you draw the line ? "
Marine Le Pen : "- But they don't exist, my good sir. Big crosses don't exist."
Karim Rissouli : "- So small crosses will be banned in the streets, right ?"
Marine Le Pen : "- I'm sorry to say, but... I'm not going to invent things that don't exist. Christian religions don't have visible religious signs. That's how it is. And I'll tell you why : in truth, we - the christians - are the ones who invented laïcité / secularism. You know : “Give back to Caesar what is Caesar’s and to God what is God’s.” "
Karim Rissouli : "- Just to be perfectly clear : will small crosses be allowed in the streets ?"
Marine Le Pen : "- Visible religious signs only ! It's the same law that the one from 2004. In school, you can wear small crosses, you can wear tiny kippas... [pause] tiny... err... what is it... tiny jewish crosses are allowed, jewish stars are allowed. What can I say... Hands of Fatima are allowed. All that is allowed. What would be banned would be very visible signs, that aren't allowed today in school."

 

She's clearly bs'ing her way through (and lying - kippas are just as forbidden in school as are burkas, veils, big crosses - that do exist, obv - and so on : discreet religious signs like tiny crosses/stars are allowed), but that was her stance on that subject as of last Feb. I could probably find a more recent campaign interview or speech where she changed her mind, but I'm too lazy to search and translate her painful ideas. ^^

As for nuns, rabbi & other religious personnel, according to MLP, they wouldn't be affected by such a ban.

 

(that said, it bears to say that all this "visible religious signs" talk is far from being a major talking point during this campaign. I'm not even sure all candidates had expressed themselves on the subject before the election, except in broad, generic terms where most candidates, except the far-right ones, agreed on the importance of inclusiveness, tolerance & laïcité ; basically, when the media don't make it their headlines, most french people are fine with how things work right now)

(and it's even truer of any christianity-related religious signs : nobody aside from the ultra-minority of the ultra-religious right really cares about those, one way or the other)

Edited by Kaoteek
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1 hour ago, Kaoteek said:

Christian religions don't have visible religious signs.

This is ridiculous. Every year we hear Bill O'Reilly (maybe not anymore!) and his ilk screech about the war on Christmas. Christian religions have a monopoly on religious signs. How was she not laughed out the door?

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I wish JO had gone a bit more into Macron.  Yeah, he's better than Le Pen, but that's like saying Stalin was better than Hitler. Yeah, he wants to stay in the EO, but his plan to make France "more competitive" is to take away so many worker rights and country benefits (but not lower the taxes that pay for them), which will adversely affect the poor and middle classes the most.  JO didn't give as good a review of Melenchon, he just made fun of him, which was not really fair.  France doesn't have a great choice ahead of them.

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To be perfectly honest, kinda disappointed that a good bunch of the left leaning voters who chose Melenchon during the first round just decided to pull a "Bernie or bust" type of move, and just abstained from voting during round 2. That, added to a weak, calculating "I'm not endorsing either candidate" from Melenchon, a very controversial (and probably career-ending) Le Pen endorsement from Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, and a general disdain for Macron, neither left nor right enough for a lot of voters, ended up artifically inflating Le Pen's final score.

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After what this country went thru with the false-equivalence voters -- "They're both the same" -- and sore losers -- "I'm not voting for anyone" -- and then ending up with tRump, I'm surprised but very happy that France didn't go thru that same fate.

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(edited)
On 9/5/2017 at 1:40 AM, Victor the Crab said:

Now we just have to worry about the upcoming German elections, which will be much bigger than the one in France.

Both the "main" choices in the German election are very reasonable. Merkel will probably win, but even if she doesn't it'll be fine.

Edited by Serena
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On 5/8/2017 at 7:40 PM, Victor the Crab said:

Now we just have to worry about the upcoming German elections, which will be much bigger than the one in France.

I look forward to John's coverage of the German elections. I've always loved his opinions on German language and culture. And a geopolitical situation that can be summed up as Germany having to save Europe from extremist British nationalism while dragging along a weak and divided France is pretty much right in his wheelhouse.

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