NFL Thread

[JTMacc99]

2 hours ago, mojoween said:

SportsCenter mentioned that Kareem Hunt asked for a trade and Cleveland “politely declined”.  I wonder how that went?

Kareem: “Hey the proximity to DeShaun is making people remember that I’m not such a good dude either, I would like to be traded somewhere I can hide.”

Browns Management: “No thank you.”

Heh. 

Browns Management: "OMG. Don't we have enough problems around here right now? (Yes, they are mostly problems we brought upon ourselves, but that's irrelevant.) Put your cleats on and go earn your $6 million you're going to get to be the second string RB this year." 

I can see why a player who has one year left on his deal would try to get an extension at this point, but he's a running back. He has limited to no leverage to get the Browns to do anything.  I would expect him to just get back to work and hope that he'll have a nice year. If he does that, he might be able to get the Browns to give him a new contract for 2023.

[Bastet]

20 hours ago, Danielg342 said:

I'd like to think practice is one of those times the players should have a little more fun and not be bogged down by the NFL's draconian rules. Unless what was done was extremely problematic and/or a player has a history of going over the top in actual games, I don't think the coach should be limiting how his players celebrate in practice. It may be the only place where they can "let out some steam" concerning their games.

Yeah, it's just dumb.  Nothing wrong with reminding players they can't do that in a game, and then if they're constantly doing it in practice, institute a zero tolerance policy because if you get used to doing this as the norm, you're going to slip and do it in a game.  But this seemed like a one-off not worth getting upset about, let alone going on a power trip and making them run laps.  He got a 15-yard penalty like he would in a game; move on.

[xaxat]

Ruhle is coaching grown men, not college kids. Collective punishment for the whole because of the actions of an individual is not going to go over well with a bunch of professionals.

[Carey]

Furthermore, the guy hasn't done anything to give him the "right" to act that way.  If Zimmer had done that, then the heat would probably be less.  Sure Mike is no longer the Vikings HC, but the point is that he's had some success in the league and probably has some respect at the very least with the team.

Ruhle is going the opposite direction in terms of what one needs to do in order to make it.  For what it's worth, we may be talking about someone else in the interim this time 3 months from now

[Danny Franks]

On 8/5/2022 at 4:20 PM, Carey said:

I believe 4th is the earliest Baltimore has picked throughout their history upon moving to Maryland in 1996.  With all their high picks, and some decent culture, it wasn't too much of a shocker that they went from zero to hero.  FWIW, and I may be drawing a blank, but I don't think they ever had a first overall pick play for them (via a trade or free agency).  I think they have but it's likely someone that was drafted at that spot in the late 80 to early-mid 90s, if at all.

Vinny Testaverde was the Ravens' QB in the first year in Baltimore, after being the Browns' QB for the previous couple of years. He's the only no.1 pick to ever play for the Ravens, but he was a no.1 pick with ten years in the league, by that point.

8 hours ago, xaxat said:

Ruhle is coaching grown men, not college kids. Collective punishment for the whole because of the actions of an individual is not going to go over well with a bunch of professionals.

If NFL coaches didn't infantilise grown men, they wouldn't be able to relate to their players at all. The creepy paternalism of coaching culture in the US is really weird sometimes.

[Danielg342]

11 hours ago, xaxat said:

Ruhle is coaching grown men, not college kids. Collective punishment for the whole because of the actions of an individual is not going to go over well with a bunch of professionals.

There's a lot of speculation about why successful college coaches find it difficult to jump to the NFL, and it may look like Rhule (who jumped from Baylor to Carolina) might join those ranks. I remember when Urban Meyer had his difficulties in Jacksonville, especially with the kicker, and my brother asked how Meyer could have had a long career in college football pulling stunts like he did in Jacksonville.

I told him, it's pretty easy. In college, the players practically- and maybe even literally- worship the coach because they're still maturing as adults and look to the coaches as father figures. Plus, more importantly, the coaches have all the power in who gets to play. Lots of coaches, either subconsciously or consciously, abuse that level of trust and power, making them think they can literally kick their kicker whenever they feel like.

Once you get to the pros, the players don't worship the coaches and will stand up for themselves. Generally speaking, the players' position on the roster is pretty stable, plus the players also have agents and the union to back them up in case anything goes wrong. Furthermore, I'm sure a lot of players remember the abuse they suffered in college and they sure don't want to experience it at the pro level.

Which means that coaches like Rhule and Meyer have problems at the pro level because the players just won't put up with their crap. Which isn't to say that every college coach that failed at the NFL level was necessarily a terrible human being- I just think it's more a matter of coaches not being able to adjust to the fact that NFL coaching is more of a two-way street than a one-way street that it is in college.

You can be "the boss" in college but in the NFL, it just won't fly.

[merylinkid]

2 hours ago, Danielg342 said:

plus the players also have agents and the union to back them up in case anything goes wrong

One of the reasons college coaches are so against players getting paid.   If they have endorsement deals, that means agents.   Which means someone to advocate for them.  Plus money makes it a lot easier to look at a coach and say "FU."   In college, the coaches had all the power while the kids wanted to just get noticed so they could get that NFL contract.   The coaches knew the kids wanted that contract and knew how much control they had.   Some abused it.

The old coaching mentality of "this is war men and you have to TOUGH TOUGH TOUGH" is thankfully falling by the wayside.   Coaches who treat the players like professionals while also being disciplined have success.   Coaches who are stuck in the old mentality don't.   Even Coughlin loosened up (he of the if you are not 5 minutes early you are late attitude).   That got him 2 Super Bowls because the players responded better to not being regimented and treated like wayward children.

[Carey]

I think Pete Carroll & Jim Harbaugh had the most recent/modern success when it came time for the college/NFL move.  They were the bosses in college, and then the leaders in the pros.  Eventually they learned to respect the adults in the room, but had the ability to show leadership in a way that trended toward winning and not trending toward being a lame, pathetic authority figure

[mojoween]

I didn’t even know Mekhi Becton had gotten hurt and now I hear he might be done for the year.  Poor kid.

[JTMacc99]

28 minutes ago, mojoween said:

I didn’t even know Mekhi Becton had gotten hurt and now I hear he might be done for the year.  Poor kid.

Per what I just read:

Quote

Becton suffered an injury to his knee cap and patella, unrelated to the knee injury that kept him out for most of last season, according to SNY’s Connor Hughes. Though Becton will undergo more tests on Tuesday, he is expected to miss significant time and could be out for the full season.

Poor kid indeed. It's also just a bad thing all around for the Jets. You need your first round picks to be good players. If they're not, or if they're not on the field due to injuries, it's a hole in the roster that's very difficult to overcome.

Unfortunately for the Jets, their 2020 draft is turning out to be no help for the team. If Becton could stay on the field, he's a good player at a premium position. It's very hard to just pull a good offensive tackle out of thin air to replace the one you spent an appropriate resource to obtain. And they used a R2 pick on Mims who again, has talent but has missed a ton of time. After injuries and other reasons, it looks like they're only getting one starter from that draft.

As I showed above, starting rosters are built from players drafted in the first three rounds of the draft. If none of your first three picks are contributing as starters two or three years after a draft, it's a difficult problem to overcome.

[JTMacc99]

Ugh. Reports on Becton is that his injury is a fractured knee cap, and that it will be season ending.

[Carey]

That sucks.  Record wise, I'm not sure it changes anything, but you need certain players to exceed expectations.  Becton going down does not help

[Danielg342]

8 hours ago, merylinkid said:

That got him 2 Super Bowls because the players responded better to not being regimented and treated like wayward children.

I remember after the Giants won the 2008 Super Bowl I saw Tom Coughlin smiling and my first reaction was, "I'm not sure I've ever seen him smile before."

I also think that attitudes have shifted sharply over the past few decades. What was once a matter of "toughen up, kid and get through it" is now recognized rightly for the abuse that it is. There was a time in the NFL you could pull that stuff off but you can't anymore. College is a bit behind, probably because of the lack of compensation as you mentioned, which is why there's still a culture shock for coaches going to the NFL.

8 hours ago, Carey said:

I think Pete Carroll & Jim Harbaugh had the most recent/modern success when it came time for the college/NFL move. 

It should be noted that both Carroll and Harbaugh were in the NFL first before going to college and coming back. I also think Carroll- who might be the youngest 71-year-old I've ever seen- seems like a pretty personable guy and that probably helps him in the pros. It also helps that he likely has the energy to keep up with his players, at least at practices.

[mojoween]

I’m confused about something.  I thought the whole point of the NFL using this independent arbitrator was to set the appropriate punishments without Goodell having to do it.  So why did the judge take into account prior cases when she decided Watson’s punishment?  Wasn’t it her job to determine what was appropriate?  

[cambridgeguy]

45 minutes ago, mojoween said:

I’m confused about something.  I thought the whole point of the NFL using this independent arbitrator was to set the appropriate punishments without Goodell having to do it.  So why did the judge take into account prior cases when she decided Watson’s punishment?  Wasn’t it her job to determine what was appropriate?  

It's her job to determine what's appropriate and consistent with the NFL's policies and precedents.  She wasn't going to stand up on a soap box and suspend him for years to send the message that you can't get away with atrocious behavior because hey, if you're a regular person you'd be canned for all the crap he did.

[DrSpaceman73]

So one of the wal mart heirs officially bought the broncos. 

I want a commercial now with peyton manning standing outside the stadium as the greeter

[bluegirl147]

1 hour ago, cambridgeguy said:

It's her job to determine what's appropriate and consistent with the NFL's policies and precedents.  She wasn't going to stand up on a soap box and suspend him for years to send the message that you can't get away with atrocious behavior because hey, if you're a regular person you'd be canned for all the crap he did.

She didn't do that but sounds like Goodell is doing that.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34375432/roger-goodell-says-evidence-calls-least-full-year-suspension-cleveland-browns-qb-deshaun-watson

[Carey]

If you're a regular person, you might get killed for all of the crap, while doing half or less would be enough to get canned for at least a very long time.

Cambridgeguy is pretty much spot on as Sue Robinson was supposed to make recommendations on what's right here in terms of discipline.  I think the difference here is that in the past, Roger made that call.  It's basically the same thing as before; it didn't seem that way because Roger would determine the punishment and agree (or disagree) with himself.

Instead, it's someone else, where the league has the right to modify it.  That was a process agreed to by the NFLPA & it's in the CBA.  Really it may now feel like a trap for the players, since it's back to Square One where the NFL determines the ultimate fate.  IMO, if it gets to the Federal Court or the US Supreme Court, they might side with the player based on evidence, but then side with the league over the terms of the CBA.  It would be a draw of sorts, but the NFL prevails because it's fair game based on what was agreed to.  If Goodell sued over 6 games, the league would not prevail based on the terms.

It may not be fair to DeShaun Watson, but it sounds like I couldn't care less if the guy suffered here

[Popples]

55 minutes ago, DrSpaceman73 said:

So one of the wal mart heirs officially bought the broncos. 

I wonder if some Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders fans will start mainly shopping at Target out of spite.

[JTMacc99]

3 hours ago, mojoween said:

I’m confused about something.  I thought the whole point of the NFL using this independent arbitrator was to set the appropriate punishments without Goodell having to do it.  So why did the judge take into account prior cases when she decided Watson’s punishment?  Wasn’t it her job to determine what was appropriate?  

18 minutes ago, Carey said:

Cambridgeguy is pretty much spot on as Sue Robinson was supposed to make recommendations on what's right here in terms of discipline.  I think the difference here is that in the past, Roger made that call.  It's basically the same thing as before; it didn't seem that way because Roger would determine the punishment and agree (or disagree) with himself.

And I'll add on this:

18 minutes ago, Carey said:

It may not be fair to DeShaun Watson,

It may not feel like it's fair to Watson, because it feels like the NFL has a policy in place that uses an arbitrator and now it's just taking her decision and changing the penalty determined based on public opinion.

And for sure, in a regular legal case, it's pretty sketchy to override a judge's decision based on public opinion.

However, the NFL and the NFLPA agreed that the NFL is allowed to appeal the arbitrator's rulings with regards to violations of the personal conduct policy. So the league is allowed to do this.

More importantly, the NFL personal conduct policy is for all intents and purposes in place to punish players who do things that damage public opinion of the NFL. Watson's "crime" against the NFL is that he damages the league's reputation if they just let him go play as if league doesn't care about his egregious and predatory behavior off the field.

It is literally the league's "public opinion policy", so it's totally fair for the league to use the agreed upon policy to hand down whatever punishment they think will least damage the league's reputation.

[mojoween]

1 hour ago, DrSpaceman73 said:

I want a commercial now with peyton manning standing outside the stadium as the greeter

I didn’t know how much I needed this until just this second.

I can’t be the only person who occasionally slams the table and yells “cut that meat!”?

[Carey]

Tampa has wrapped up, around the time the Bucs center Robert Hainsey was carted off.  That comes courtesy of Jenna Laine.

Tom retiring a second time this calendar year might be possible.

[JTMacc99]

3 minutes ago, Carey said:

Tampa has wrapped up, around the time the Bucs center Robert Hainsey was carted off.  That comes courtesy of Jenna Laine.

Tom retiring a second time this calendar year might be possible.

Oh man. That's awful if he's seriously hurt.  And yeah, lol, Tommy might be spotted at some point this weekend trying on some sports jackets that'll look good for his TV gig.

The Giants brought in former Bengals first round center Billy Price when they started losing interior lineman at an alarming pace last August-September.  He's still without a team.

To be fair, he ended up being the least objectionable player to the right of Andrew Thomas on the Giants line last year. It was definitely the best he's ever played in his career. The Bucs may have to dip into the pool of players like him, if for no other reason than to make sure they have somebody on the roster who has at least functioned as a center in the NFL at some point.

[mojoween]

Such a dilemma - Tom Brady continuing to play, with the possibility to win another Super Bowl, is infuriating.

But if he retires, but he’ll be yammering on my teevee every single week.

Gisele, can’t you take him somewhere?

[DrSpaceman73]

20 hours ago, mojoween said:

Such a dilemma - Tom Brady continuing to play, with the possibility to win another Super Bowl, is infuriating.

But if he retires, but he’ll be yammering on my teevee every single week.

Gisele, can’t you take him somewhere?

At least you can mute him 

[JTMacc99]

One of the Giants fan sites posted a round up of where the Giants currently rank in preseason top 32 power rankings.  (A meaningless ranking, that's even more meaningless before they even play a game.)

Each ranking comes with a quick hit of what they think of the team. So the Sporting News says "26th - The other New York team has some more offensive promise with Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka as the new collaborators and the defense keeps collecting playmakers. [Insert Daniel Jones, blah blah, blah here.]"

My absolute favorite was this comment from NFL.com:

"But at the very least, the G-Men have the potential to be watchable on offense in 2022."

Woo Hoo! We have the potential to be watchable!  LOL. That would certainly be an improvement.

[Xeliou66]

19 minutes ago, JTMacc99 said:

One of the Giants fan sites posted a round up of where the Giants currently rank in preseason top 32 power rankings.  (A meaningless ranking, that's even more meaningless before they even play a game.)

Each ranking comes with a quick hit of what they think of the team. So the Sporting News says "26th - The other New York team has some more offensive promise with Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka as the new collaborators and the defense keeps collecting playmakers. [Insert Daniel Jones, blah blah, blah here.]"

My absolute favorite was this comment from NFL.com:

"But at the very least, the G-Men have the potential to be watchable on offense in 2022."

Woo Hoo! We have the potential to be watchable!  LOL. That would certainly be an improvement.

The Giants were decimated by injuries last season, so it’s very hard to predict how they will do this season. They have offensive talent, but I have no confidence in Daniel Jones, I’ve never been very impressed with him, and I don’t see them going far with him. And the defense has some holes, they are very thin in the secondary. 

[JTMacc99]

1 hour ago, Xeliou66 said:

The Giants were decimated by injuries last season, so it’s very hard to predict how they will do this season.

As for injuries, they were indeed league leaders in most man games lost:

Baltimore was just behind them. The bigger bubble size for Baltimore accounts for the fact that they lost guys who had been in Pro Bowls. The Giants, being terrible for so many years in a row, didn't have any pro bowlers to lose. But they did lose many, many games to players who were important to them. Pick a category:

Team Captains you say?  Of the six team captains, they lost two of them for the year in week 2. Peppers went down for the year in week 6. Jones missed the last 6 games and most of the week 5 game. Barkley missed several games. Only Logan Ryan managed to stay healthy.

If the 2021 NY Giants said before the season started, "That glass of water is important to our success this year", that glass of water would have inexplicably caught on fire by the middle of the season.

Speaking of Jones, I'm on board with the new GM's evaluation of him both spoken and unspoken. Unspoken, he let us all know that the Giants are going to give him a shot this year, but no promises about next year. Spoken, after he had been around Jones for a few months he said that they love the kid. Whatever the best version of him as a player is, he's wired right to achieve it.  He specifically said in May, "We love Daniel Jones. We think he’s a win-with player." 

Of course, he needs to stay on the damn field. The Giants were 0-7 in games that Glennon played last year. They shouldn't have let Jones play in week 6 against the Rams either. He didn't practice all week going into that game while in concussion protocol, and then they cleared him and let him get his ass handed to him. He doesn't do the team any good when he's out or compromised, which has been far too often early in his career.

[Carey]

Well, the art of skipping the entire pre-season is off to a great start, but I guess I can feel happy for the Giants beating the Patriots (which has a history of being a bigger deal).  Plus, the Ravens extended their record pre-season streak.  Not a Baltimore fan, but I would be okay if they put Cincy in their place this year.  Not saying or betting it'll happen.  I actually don't hate Cincinnati at all.  It's more directed at the media reminding whomever that the Bengals have more to worry about than Pittsburgh in terms of division dominance

[Fukui San]

Zach Wilson went down with a bad looking noncontact knee injury in their first preseason game. Will need MRI to see whether torn ACL or not. 

[mojoween]

Looks like it’s a bone bruise and a torn meniscus and his status for Week 1 is in question.  I feel like I’m saying this too much lately, but poor kid.

[Xeliou66]

13 hours ago, Fukui San said:

Zach Wilson went down with a bad looking noncontact knee injury in their first preseason game. Will need MRI to see whether torn ACL or not. 

Wilson didn’t tear his ACL - it was a more minor injury, he’ll be out 2-4 weeks, not nearly as bad as it could’ve been for Wilson and the Jets. I’m curious to see how Wilson does this year - the Jets had a great draft and should be an improved team. 

[mojoween]

A preseason funny (she posts while eating said goodies while waiting for a concert to start) 

[Grrarrggh]

What do ya'll think about the guardian caps players are wearing during practices? I can see good and bad resulting from what I've read.

[Lamb18]

Kenny Pickett sure is off to a blazing start for the Steelers.

[Salacious Kitty]

31 minutes ago, Lamb18 said:

Kenny Pickett sure is off to a blazing start for the Steelers.

Until he got his ass sacked almost for a safety. Didn't see anything after that as the NFL Channel switched to the kickoff of the Denver/Dallas game.

[Xeliou66]

Preseason performances mean less than nothing IMO. There is nothing on the line, and players are more concerned about not getting hurt than about winning. I put absolutely no stock into what happens in the preseason.

On another note, I’m hearing that Geno Smith is the QB1 right now in Seattle, yikes, I mean I knew Drew Lock was subpar but I didn’t know he was so bad Geno Fucking Smith may win the starting job over him. 

[Colleenna]

2 hours ago, Lamb18 said:

Kenny Pickett sure is off to a blazing start for the Steelers.

So who's going to be  #1, Pickett or Trubisky? Sure as hell ain't  Rudolph. 

[Danielg342]

2 hours ago, Colleenna said:

So who's going to be  #1, Pickett or Trubisky? Sure as hell ain't  Rudolph. 

I have a feeling that, no matter who it is, it's going to get ugly in Pittsburgh. Real ugly.

8 hours ago, mojoween said:

A preseason funny (she posts while eating said goodies while waiting for a concert to start) 

Plot twist: neither of them like potatoes.

[Carey]

On 8/14/2022 at 2:01 AM, Danielg342 said:

On 8/13/2022 at 11:41 PM, Colleenna said:

So who's going to be  #1, Pickett or Trubisky? Sure as hell ain't  Rudolph. 

I have a feeling that, no matter who it is, it's going to get ugly in Pittsburgh. Real ugly.

I was ready to return here to completely disagree with your take here, but I actually do not.  I don't completely agree either, but my disagreement was related to the team as a whole; the QB position is such a wildcard.

The advantage the Steelers have this year is that everyone, including Mason, can move around behind that crap-ass O-Line.  Sure none of the QBs are Big Ben, but the fact is No 7 was well past his prime.  FWIW, you have to go back to Miami to find a victorious playoff game with the winners finding the endzone.  In other words, it's been over a half decade.

The change behind center is refreshing, but not something to get super-excited about yet.  Even with the offensive line, there is some optimism.  Everyone has to stay healthy.  Furthermore, the line has the chance to improve as time goes forward.  For the ground game, the line would have to get better by any means necessary; if that happens, then there's a chance things could head toward success & at the very least, far away from ugly.

If the defense is very good, then they should be able to offset the offensive struggles if any

[mojoween]

I am writing this query from the rock I have been apparently living under - when did preseason change to three weeks?  Was that the concession for the 17 week season, which I will lament as dumb and stupid until the end of time?

[Carey]

It was changed in 2021, which coincided with the move to a 17-game regular season

[xaxat]

On 8/14/2022 at 2:01 AM, Danielg342 said:

I have a feeling that, no matter who it is, it's going to get ugly in Pittsburgh. Real ugly.

I'm not predicting the playoffs, but this is a team that managed to go 8-8 with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB.

They'll be OK.

[Colleenna]

5 hours ago, Carey said:

I was ready to return here to completely disagree with your take here, but I actually do not.  I don't completely agree either, but my disagreement was related to the team as a whole; the QB position is such a wildcard.

The advantage the Steelers have this year is that everyone, including Mason, can move around behind that crap-ass O-Line.  Sure none of the QBs are Big Ben, but the fact is No 7 was well past his prime.  FWIW, you have to go back to Miami to find a victorious playoff game with the winners finding the endzone.  In other words, it's been over a half decade.

The change behind center is refreshing, but not something to get super-excited about yet.  Even with the offensive line, there is some optimism.  Everyone has to stay healthy.  Furthermore, the line has the chance to improve as time goes forward.  For the ground game, the line would have to get better by any means necessary; if that happens, then there's a chance things could head toward success & at the very least, far away from ugly.

If the defense is very good, then they should be able to offset the offensive struggles if any

As usual,  the o-line sucks monkey balls. 

I miss Pouncey.  

And yes, #7 should have retired earlier. That final year, he didn't move, he lumbered.  

Edited August 15, 2022 by Colleenna
Additional thought

[Danielg342]

3 hours ago, xaxat said:

I'm not predicting the playoffs, but this is a team that managed to go 8-8 with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB.

They'll be OK.

Considering Pittsburgh's lofty standards, any year they're not competitive for the playoffs is "ugly".

I mean, I don't think they will be as bad as the Browns, who might help them pad their record. I just think a frustrating, 6-11 or 7-10 year is a distinct possibility.

[Popples]

I was most interested in seeing the other RBs. I don't want to run Najee's wheels off so quickly in his career.

[mojoween]

What the hell? Beloved high school coach killed; suspect is Aqib Talib’s brother

Edited August 15, 2022 by mojoween

[Colleenna]

5 hours ago, Danielg342 said:

Considering Pittsburgh's lofty standards, any year they're not competitive for the playoffs is "ugly".

I mean, I don't think they will be as bad as the Browns, who might help them pad their record. I just think a frustrating, 6-11 or 7-10 year is a distinct possibility.

Pffft. Any year we're not IN the playoffs is ugly. And don't discount the Clowns.  They could be a toe-popper for the Steelers.  But 7-10? Nah. 8-8-1 at worst. 

[Danielg342]

This is Pittsburgh's schedule for 2022. Here's how I work it out:

1- at Cincinnati Bengals (L, 0-1)
2- vs. New England Patriots (W, 1-1)
3- at Cleveland Browns (W, 2-1)
4- vs. New York Jets (W, 3-1)
5- at Buffalo Bills (L, 3-2)
6- vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (L, 3-3)
7- at Miami Dolphins (L, 3-4)
8- at Philadelphia Eagles (L, 3-5)
9 Bye
10- vs. New Orleans Saints (W, 4-5)
11- vs. Cincinnati Bengals (L, 4-6)
12- at Indianapolis Colts (L, 4-7)
13- at Atlanta Falcons (W, 5-7)
14- vs. Baltimore Ravens (W, 6-7)
15- at Carolina Panthers (L, 6-8)
16- vs. Las Vegas Raiders (L, 6-9)
17- at Baltimore Ravens (L, 6-10)
18- vs. Cleveland Browns (W, 7-10)

A few notes:

• Cincinnati may regress (like they usually do) but they're likely still the class of the division and Pittsburgh is nowhere close. Baltimore is a more likely competitor for the AFC North crown.
• The games against the Browns, Falcons, Jets, Bills, Bengals and Bucs are the only games I'm very comfortable making predictions about. The rest could really go either way depending on how the season is going for both sides.
• The Ravens could go either way, but they're more likely on Pittsburgh's level than Cincinnati's. It's possible that Baltimore, one year removed from the playoffs, could sweep the Steelers but I think the two trading wins are more likely.
• I picked for Pittsburgh against New England and New Orleans because they're at home. I picked against Pittsburgh against Miami, Indy, Philly and Carolina because they're on the road there. The Panthers' performance hinges on whether or not Baker Mayfield can regain his old magic.
• The Raiders were a playoff team last year so I'm not picking against them, though they could regress and it's a Steelers home game.
• Lastly, Week 18 against Cleveland could become a tossup if DeShaun Watson finds his way back on to the football field this season.

This is before we get to the realities of the season, where the games don't always go as we predict them. While teams usually play to their expected level, there's always those two or three games where they rise above their level and/or fall below it, for whatever reason.

The Steelers have a more volatile schedule than most, I would think. They're not going to be playoff calibre, but they're also not going to be so horrible that they'll compete for the top draft picks. Reminds me of the Bills in their drought years, where, aside from knowing they won't be in the playoffs, you really don't know what to expect each week. Sometimes they play really well and pull out a victory that you didn't see coming. Other times they stink up the joint making you wonder if they're a NFL team. Any record from 4-7 wins seemed plausible.

That's where Pittsburgh is now. While I don't think Buffalo's legendary drought is in the offing (and I sure hope it isn't), I think the Steelers are at a point where they have to decide if they can get back into the upper echelon of the NFL or if they're better off bottoming out. The Bills got into their rut because they kept thinking they were "one piece away" when they clearly were not, and if Pittsburgh wants to avoid that same relative fate, they have to figure out where they are and where they could be in the next few years.

[Carey]

Very good post, Danielg.  Great analysis.  Appreciate the details & reasoning; thank you.

I'll have to re-visit everything later, and if necessary, I'll add my thoughts.  There are 2-3 people that might do so in advance, but in brief, this is fair due to the teams and the game locations.

In brief, I still could see 8.5 wins, if not 8 or 9 wins.  It could be better than 7-10, but not much more.  They would have to hit 2017 and/or 2020 luck even pass 10-7.  I think .500 or above is possible because there always seems to be a couple games that they have no business winning (i.e. 2021 Buffalo at Highmark).  On the other hand, it's an annual thing to lose a game they should absolutely win (known in Western PA as the Tomlin Special).  Then there's that sorta common tie.

Chances are there will be 5 teams at least that'll be worse than Pittsburgh, even with a 5-12 record.  They're not getting Bryce Young, and they're not getting Jordan Addison.  High draft picks in back-to-back years is okay, but coaching & development is a bigger deal regardless of the draft picks.  If they falter this year, that's fine.  It may take time for the awful offensive line to come together & for Pickett to grow, but if they want to compete soon, they probably need to get there for the 2024 & 2025 seasons while Minkah, Cam, and TJ are still pretty decent