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2016 Awards Season


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So does Steve Jobs flopping at the box office take Fassbender out of the running for Best Actor? And if so does the combination of that, the underwhelming response (so far at least) to The Danish Girl, and the weaker than usual field in general mean that the stars may be aligning for a Leo win?

 

 

That's what it feels like, but I'm not holding my breath.  They are consistent in denying him.  Leo has probably deserved at least two wins before now IMO.

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So does Steve Jobs flopping at the box office take Fassbender out of the running for Best Actor? And if so does the combination of that, the underwhelming response (so far at least) to The Danish Girl, and the weaker than usual field in general mean that the stars may be aligning for a Leo win?

 

I mean, who are the other contenders anyway? Given how big a hit The Martian became, Matt Damon probably has a decent shot at a nomination, but I'd be pretty surprised to see him win for it. Beyond that I've got no idea. It seems like this might be the rare year where Best Actress is more competitive than Best Actor.

 

To win, Fassbender needed Steve Jobs to have done at least respectably, especially with awards season just starting up. A Best Actor contender can survive a movie not being a huge hit with enough passionate supporters, especially if the project isn't seen as mainstream to begin with and was never expected to make a lot of money. Sometimes a movie can be predicted for so long and be viewed so late, that by the time it's assessed not to be very good, it's not enough to stop months' worth of momentum and it gets enough votes for the nominations, anyway. SJ, though, has flopped too early and loudly, in terms of media coverage, to overcome the stench of failure, though a backlash to the backlash might happen by the time Oscar ballots go out.

 

Concussion screens tomorrow at AFI Fest and Will Smith has made the cut in Best Actor before without it needing to be a huge Oscar movie overall (The Pursuit of Happyness). Tom Hanks hasn't gotten career-best reviews for Bridge of Spies but it's the sort of movie that would play well with AMPAS voters and people may want to make up for the Captain Phillips snub a couple of years ago. Still, his odds are probably better next year with the Captain Sully movie.

 

If Leo still doesn't win this year, I wonder if he'll try Broadway or something.

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So does Steve Jobs flopping at the box office take Fassbender out of the running for Best Actor? And if so does the combination of that, the underwhelming response (so far at least) to The Danish Girl, and the weaker than usual field in general mean that the stars may be aligning for a Leo win?

 

I mean, who are the other contenders anyway? Given how big a hit The Martian became, Matt Damon probably has a decent shot at a nomination, but I'd be pretty surprised to see him win for it. Beyond that I've got no idea. It seems like this might be the rare year where Best Actress is more competitive than Best Actor.

 

Eddie Redmayne will get nominated for the Danish Girl. It feels like a given, especially because transgenderism is a pretty hot topic right now.

 

I do think Matt Damon has a shot at getting a nomination but not a win, ala Sandra Bullock for Gravity.

 

Maybe this will finally be Leo's year?

It could be, although I get the feeling that older, male Academy members are irritated by the idea that Leo's "overdue," even though he's hardly old and nowhere near finished, obviously. I think the whining from his fans that he's "owed" an Oscar probably hurts his chances as much as anything. I think he's considered by them a movie star more than a serious actor, because as hard as he tries, nobody can really think of him as a chameleon or method actor (everyone always sees him as Leo on some level) and I think those jealous old men just don't think he needs an Oscar on top of all his fame and success.

 

I've always kind of seen him as a Paul Newman type- not likely to win until he's genuinely an old man and they eventually give him a make-up award.

It could be, although I get the feeling that older, male Academy members are irritated by the idea that Leo's "overdue," even though he's hardly old and nowhere near finished, obviously. I think the whining from his fans that he's "owed" an Oscar probably hurts his chances as much as anything. I think he's considered by them a movie star more than a serious actor, because as hard as he tries, nobody can really think of him as a chameleon or method actor (everyone always sees him as Leo on some level) and I think those jealous old men just don't think he needs an Oscar on top of all his fame and success.

 

I've always kind of seen him as a Paul Newman type- not likely to win until he's genuinely an old man and they eventually give him a make-up award.

 

 

I don't think the Academy hates Leo at all, or that the sixtysomething men of AMPAS even know what a Tumblr meme is. If anything, I think DiCaprio is probably taken for granted: he's young, he has time, let's give it to someone else who's even more overdue or made more of a career turnaround, this year. Some of his Oscar bait didn't pan out for him personally, but it ends to fall more on the noble failure side of things, rather than insipid rom-coms or dumb action movies. All the AMPAS voters who deplore franchises probably respect him more for avoiding them all this time. Some years he was nominated, I didn't think he was the best. Sometimes, he was caught up in Oscar politics, like how actors can't be nominated twice in the same category in the same year, so he got in for Blood Diamond rather than The Departed (which halfheartedly pushed he and Matt Damon in Supporting because they had other performances in contention), or Christoph Waltz, "Supporting Actor" in Django Unchained despite being onscreen for the bulk of the run time and having more dialogue than the title character. DiCaprio's missed nominations for strong performances, but it's happened to other actors, too.

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Eddie Redmayne will get nominated for the Danish Girl. It feels like a given, especially because transgenderism is a pretty hot topic right now.

Oh I definitely think he's still in it for a nomination, but the win looks more unlikely to me now. Given how rare back to back acting wins are I feel like The Danish Girl probably needed to be better received to pull that off.

 

But that's kind of how I'm feeling about pretty much everyone in that category right now -- there are a bunch of guys who look like they have a shot at getting nominated, but none of them aside from Leo (and maybe Will Smith? I'd forgotten about that movie) seem like the type to actually win. Whereas in actress you have Larson, Ronan, Blanchett, and Lawrence who all seem like threats to win. Blanchett would probably be the most unlikely, given that she's already won twice and people seem to be divided on which of her or Rooney Mara is the standout in Carol (because apparently it's impossible that they're equally great?), but she has some huge raves, with some even calling it a career-best performance, and the film itself looks to be a major critics favourite this year.

Edited by AshleyN

 

It's been released?

It was screened at Venice and Toronto's Film Festivals and the purpose of that is to build advanced word/awards momentum, it was received with meh to bad response/reviews, a lot of critics won't give formal reviews when they screen something at a fest, but they weigh in by telling you what they thought, and I didn't read one critic's coverage that praised the movie.

 

I have not yet seen Carol (can't wait), but after seeing Brooklyn and Room, I think the race has to be between Ronan and Larson as the front runners.

This is totally shallow and unfair, but I would just support Charlotte Rampling winning sight unseen just because it seems like the Best Actress winners are always so young, especially in comparison to the Best Actor winner.

 

My random prediction: Ridley Scott wins Best Director-The Martian did incredibly well critically and commercially and it can be a defacto lifetime achievement award. Ala Martin Scorsese-everyone knew that The Departed was nowhere near his best movie, but come on, he made Raging Bull, Taxi Driver and Goodfellas. Same with Scott-yeah, it isn't Alien, Blade Runner or Thelma and Louise, but it will do.

That's what it feels like, but I'm not holding my breath.  They are consistent in denying him.  Leo has probably deserved at least two wins before now IMO.

He absolutely has, and it's part of the reason I detest the politics around the Oscars (even though I know it's not going away any time soon).  He should've had an Oscar for What's Eating Gilbert Grape, but I guarantee the thought at the time was "he's 19, he's young, he'll have plenty of other opportunities to win", which shouldn't be how you go about rewarding a performance.  And now, I think he's always so good in everything he's in, there's still that thought of "well, he'll be in something good next year; we can award him then."    

 

Does anyone think Johnny Depp's recent comments about how he never wants to win an Oscar will hurt his chances?

 

It probably won't hurt him in getting a nomination (it certainly has never hurt Joaquin Phoenix), but it probably will hurt him in actually getting the win.  Joaquin is one person I think should have at least one Oscar (his performance as Commodus was masterful) and probably two (he is just flat out fantastic in Walk the Line, The Master, and Her), but I think publicly stating how he feels about award shows has hurt his chances of actually winning any awards.

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I think Matt Damon has a shot at winning because he made what could have been very boring sequences on Mars interesting and engaging. That takes skill.

 

 

I don't know.  He's just went through a firestorm of incredibly bad press from the fallout over his comments on Project Greenlight.   Maybe that will go away, but I rather doubt it.   He came across as as an entitled, rich douche.   It wasn't good.   

 

I think he will get a nomination, but I think a win will be very difficult.

Edited by vb68
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Entertainment Weekly's preliminary Best Actor choices:

 

Sure Things:

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (really? Despite it tanking?)

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

 

Serious Threats:

Matt Damon, The Martian

Will Smith, Concussion

Michael Caine, Youth (I don't know this movie)

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

 

Potential Spoilers:

Ian McKellen, Mr Holmes (my favorite)

Johnny Depp, Black Mass (I enjoyed his performance)

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Potential Spoilers:

Ian McKellen, Mr Holmes (my favorite)

 

 

McKellen was so great in Mr. Holmes. I'd love to see him get another nomination. 

 

I always find the conversation regarding Leo and the Oscars interesting, because when you look at his age it shouldn't be that surprising that he hasn't won yet -- he's only 41 which is still slightly younger than the average age for a Best Actor winner (which I believe is 44). Plus, they nominated him four times before he turned 40, which always makes me doubt the whole "the Academy just doesn't like him" thing. But because he became such a huge star so young, and has maintained that stardom for so long (while consistently working with top directors in high profile projects) it gives weight to the overdue argument that would be hard to make in most cases for someone his age. Personally I fall somewhere in the middle -- I think he's a great actor who's given some performances that would have been worthy of a win, but I don't think it's some huge injustice that he hasn't won yet either*. I just hope he doesn't go Pacino route, where they pass over all of his best performances only to have him end up winning for a movie no one would remember otherwise.

 

*Although the more I think about, the more I kind of wish that he had won for The Wolf of Wall Street. Partly because I think he was brilliant in it and it's my favourite performance of his, and partly because after he spent so many years being passed over for Serious performances in Serious movies, it would have been kind of great if he'd finally won for a comedy in which he does this:

 

Also, there's a part of me that will be a little disappointed if his eventual win doesn't come for one of his Scorsese collaborations. I'm still annoyed that he didn't get nominated for The Departed, which pre-WOWS I thought was his best performance*.

 

*And I know his snub there had a lot to do with factors beyond the performance, but it still bugs me.

Edited by AshleyN

I think we can take The 33 off the list of nominees except maybe Antonio Bandaras, if it's a weak field for actors this year.  I just got back from seeing it and while I don't know the details of why the critics were giving it a rather "meh" reception (I didn't read the articles), I have to agree--it was just "ok".  It's too bad, too, because it could have been better and there were moments from most of the main characters that were very strong, just not enough to carry into the "great" category.

A new supporting actor contender has emerged...

 

 

Sylvester Stallone for Creed 

 

Sylvester Stallone Might Have Just KO’d the Supporting Actor Oscar Competition

 

 

As an upcoming column will attest, the supporting actor race is positively thick with strong contenders this year. But none of them have really felt like a winner just yet. A year after “Birdman,” Michael Keaton could get a lot of residual affection for his work in “Spotlight.” Tom Hardy may prove to be a ferocious favorite in “The Revenant.” But few performances pack the emotional punch Sylvester Stallone does in “Creed.”
But Stallone should be the campaign’s North Star here. Like Harrison Ford in “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” he’s bringing a beloved ’70s cinema icon back to the big screen. But it’s not for a stunt or a misguided spin-off cash-in. It’s a complex portrait, one that feeds the journey of the film’s main character rather than steal his spotlight. “Without straining for pathos, using his battered body as an asset but never as a prop, the actor finds continually surprising, understated notes of tenderness and regret,” Andrew Barker wrote in his Variety review of the film

So it sounds as if Stallone's returned to original Rocky form for this sequel? I might have to check it out.

 

If Leo still doesn't win this year, I wonder if he'll try Broadway or something.

I don't think he'll give up on Hollywood as long as Scorcese is still making movies.

 

I don't know how likely a nomination is, let alone a win, but Ian McKellen in Mr. Holmes is by far my favorite performance by an actor this year.

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Entertainment Weekly's preliminary Best Actor choices:

 

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (really? Despite it tanking?)

 

  Yes. The Theory Of Everything, Dallas Buyer's Club, The King's Speech & Crazy Heart didn't break box office records, either, but Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaghuey, Colin Firth & Jeff Bridges won Best Actor Oscars anyway.

 

  Yes. The Theory Of Everything, Dallas Buyer's Club, The King's Speech & Crazy Heart didn't break box office records, either, but Eddie Redmayne, Matthew McConaghuey, Colin Firth & Jeff Bridges won Best Actor Oscars anyway.

 

The King's Speech made more than $100 million ($138M domestic, $414M worldwide on a $15M budget) and none of the others were abject flops shown up by an Ashton Kutcher version of the same story, just small movies ($15 million budgets at the most, or even smaller, at $5 or $7 million) that at minimum made twice as much as they cost, and many times more when taking worldwide box office into account. Steve Jobs cost $30 million with an advertising budget to match, and all the concerns revealed by the Sony hacks last year—that the budget was too high, the star power too low—have seemingly been validated. Maybe it will get some nominations, but I can't think of a perceived flop of this magnitude in the last ten years that actually won any of the big Oscar categories.

I saw Spotlight the other day, and while I wasn't quite as in love with it as some critics seem to be, it is pretty great and I can totally see it being an Argo or The King's Speech type of Best Picture winner -- one that wins by virtue of being the movie that everyone likes.

 

Also, it would be so perfectly Hollywood if in a year that seems to have more female-driven contenders than any year in recent memory they end up giving Best Picture to another sausage fest.

Edited by AshleyN

 

The King's Speech made more than $100 million ($138M domestic, $414M worldwide on a $15M budget) and none of the others were abject flops shown up by an Ashton Kutcher version of the same story, just small movies ($15 million dollar budgets at the most, or even smaller, at $5 or $7 million) that at minimum made twice as much as they cost, and many times more when taking worldwide box office into account. Steve Jobs cost $30 million with an advertising budget to match, and all the concerns revealed by the Sony hacks last year-that the cost was too high, the star power too low-have seemingly been validated. Maybe it will get some nominations, but I can't think of a perceived flop of this magnitude in the mast ten years that actually won in any of the big Oscar categories. 

 

  Re the first point, while The King's Speech & the other films I mentioned in my previous post did do well, since they were smaller, independent films, they didn't make Jurassic World-level money at the box office. Steve Jobs didn't break box office records either, but it still made more than the Ashton Kutcher version. Acting-wise, even on his best day, AK's no Michael Fassbender, by a long shot.  About Steve Jobs' Oscar chances, I don't think they'll win much ( if any) either, but plenty of films that are IMO much worse, like Crash winning over Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture at the 2005 Oscars, have done better than they deserve.

Entertainment Weekly's Best Supporting Actress contenders:

 

Sure Things:

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Rooney Mara, Carol

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

 

Serious Threats:

Jane Fonda, Youth

Joan Allen, Room

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

 

Potential Spoilers:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Ellen Page, Freeheld

Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Edited by Rick Kitchen

 

 

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Rooney Mara, Carol

 

It will be interesting if the issue of category fraud comes to a head here. There was an article that said that Mara and Vikander submitted themselves as supporting and the Golden Globes wouldn't allow it-they are both clearly leads. Mara already won Best Actress at Cannes for Carol and is in the movie more than Blanchett is.

 

Article linked below...

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-category-fraud-insane-inflation-842089

 

They mention other performances, many of which won, and in some cases, I can't see the line between lead and supporting and in some cases, yes, it was stretching it. Like last year, I don't know, was Patricia Arquette supporting in Boyhood or not? She won awards in both lead and supporting - a case could be made either way.

 

On another note, I am interested to see how Creed will do-the critics are going nuts over it, Ryan Coogler is seen as an up-and-coming director (Fruitvale Station was devastating), Michael B. Jordan is also up and coming and was tipped to be nominated for Fruitvale, and it's expected to do well. And then there's Sylvester Stallone, who is being singled out for praise and nomination talk. It would be insane-has *any* actor been nominated for playing the same character 40 years apart?! And what if he won?!

Edited by yourstruly
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On another note, I am interested to see how Creed will do-the critics are going nuts over it, Ryan Coogler is seen as an up-and-coming director (Fruitvale Station was devastating), Michael B. Jordan is also up and coming and was tipped to be nominated for Fruitvale, and it's expected to do well.

Fruitvale Station is a great example of a movie that peaked too soon to be an award contender. They've definitely been smarter with the timing of Creed. I think Michael B Jordan is really talented and would love to see him get some recognition. 

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Creed is from Warner Bros, who've been pushing Black Mass as their big awards pony for the year, but the reviews for Creed are much stronger, it's very likely to make more money, and be fresher in the minds of voters. Sure, it's a sequel/spin-off, but Rocky did win Best Picture, and it's a boxing movie, not some YA fantasy adventure that the Academy doesn't take seriously. In addition to Michael B. Jordan, I think Sylvester Stallone has a shot in Supporting Actor and Ryan Coogler for Best Director.

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And then there's Sylvester Stallone, who is being singled out for praise and nomination talk. It would be insane-has *any* actor been nominated for playing the same character 40 years apart?! And what if he won?!

I don't know, but I really hope we at least see a nomination.  I'm an unapologetic Stallone fan (flaws and all) because of Rocky I, II, and III and, in spite of a lot of ridiculous movies over the years, will defend him forever as a lot smarter than he his on screen persona.

Edited by Shannon L.
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Creed is from Warner Bros, who've been pushing Black Mass as their big awards pony for the year, but the reviews for Creed are much stronger, it's very likely to make more money, and be fresher in the minds of voters. Sure, it's a sequel/spin-off, but Rocky did win Best Picture, and it's a boxing movie, not some YA fantasy adventure that the Academy doesn't take seriously. In addition to Michael B. Jordan, I think Sylvester Stallone has a shot in Supporting Actor and Ryan Coogler for Best Director.

I wish Mad Max had enough of a chance for them to be pushing that. :( I wouldn't be surprised if the critics give it some love, but I can't see the Oscars nominating a pure action movie for anything outside of the technical categories, which is a shame because George Miller and Charlize Theron are my two pipe-dream picks for the year. Do you think it has a shot at cinematography at least*?

 

*The nomination I mean. I'm assuming Emmanuel Lubezki has the win all but sewn up.

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I wish Mad Max had enough of a chance for them to be pushing that. :( I wouldn't be surprised if the critics give it some love, but I can't see the Oscars nominating a pure action movie for anything outside of the technical categories, which is a shame because George Miller and Charlize Theron are my two pipe-dream picks for the year. Do you think it has a shot at cinematography at least*?

 

*The nomination I mean. I'm assuming Emmanuel Lubezki has the win all but sewn up.

 

I see it playing out the same way for Fury Road: some critics' groups wins and technical nods at the Oscars (cinematography, sound), possibly George Miller as a lone director.  If there are enough AMPAS voters who feel strongly about Charlize, she could get the #1 votes needed to be a passion pick in Best Actress. I don't think it's highly likely, but if her name is called on nomination day it wouldn't be a total surprise.

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I don't understand how Steve Jobs flopping at the box office is indicative of there being no nominations for Kate Winslet or Michael Fassbender. I've never looked to the Academy as really giving a shit about box office performance, especially considering that Kate is an Oscar winner (and has multiple nominations) and Michael was previously nominated for 12 Years a Slave. Personally, I'd be upset if neither one received a nomination because they both did fantastic work in that movie.

 

Leo definitely should have won for The Wolf of Wall Street if Chiwetel couldn't win for 12 Years A Slave. I love Matthew McConaughey, thought he was great, but I would've picked those two over him that year.

Edited by PepSinger
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Leo definitely should have won for The Wolf of Wall Street if Chiwetel couldn't win for 12 Years A Slave. I love Matthew McConaughey, thought he was great, but I would've picked those two over him that year.

Leo will win his Oscar one day, but it will probably be for a performance that wasn't as powerful as TWOWS (even though I didn't particularly care for the movie) or even his performance in Django Unchained--for which I feel he got robbed. 

 

This kind of thing happens a lot--the "make-up Oscar." Whoopi Goldberg won for Ghost, and she was great, but she should have won for The Color Purple. Al Pacino should have won the Oscar for his performance in Godfather II, but he didn't get the Oscar till he won "Best Actor" for Scent of a Woman, which meant that Denzel didn't win for Malcolm X, arguably his best performance ever. So Denzel wins later for Training Day, a great performance, but it meant he bumped Russell Crowe, who probably should have won for A Beautiful Mind--a movie which otherwise swept the big Oscar categories that year. And Crowe had already won the Golden Globe and the SAG Award that year.

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I saw Bridge of Spies, and honestly, I was underwhelmed at Tom Hanks. Don't get me wrong, it was a good movie, but I felt like it was such a straight-forward role that didn't really go anywhere- his character seemed to be stuck on "noble" and I didn't find him all that well-developed, with Tom just using his natural charisma to try and fill the gaps in the writing/character development.

 

I do think Sylvester Stallone has a damn good chance at getting the supporting nod. And the best part is that it actually IS a supporting character and not some inflated "supporting" character role that was actually the lead!

Edited by methodwriter85

So Denzel wins later for Training Day, a great performance, but it meant he bumped Russell Crowe, who probably should have won for A Beautiful Mind--a movie which otherwise swept the big Oscar categories that year. And Crowe had already won the Golden Globe and the SAG Award that year.

Crowe was the overwhelming favourite to win that year before he ruined his chances by getting into a fight at the BAFTAs.  The bad PR knocked him out of the game, and so Washington won.  That wasn't really a makeup Oscar, both for that reason and because Denzel already had an Oscar.

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Crowe was the overwhelming favourite to win that year before he ruined his chances by getting into a fight at the BAFTAs.  The bad PR knocked him out of the game, and so Washington won.  That wasn't really a makeup Oscar, both for that reason and because Denzel already had an Oscar.

 

Julia Roberts was also lobbying for Denzel to win Best Actor, saying it wasn't right that she had an Oscar in a leading category while someone as talented as Denzel didn't (he'd "only" won Best Supporting Actor at that point). Remember how she made presenting the Oscar to him that year all about her:

 

Edited by Dejana
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I definitely think its between Ronan and Larson for Best Actress. I think Larson has a slight lead, but either one is win for me.

 

Actor: I honestly have no clue. With the reviews that Leo is getting for Revenant, it seems like his year. But, I won't be shocked if he looses out. MichaelB. Jordan might become a dark horse with how good the reviews for Creed. He's got a good shot too. My hope is that the Academy opens their eyes and at least nominates Idris Elba for "Beasts of No Nation". That movie was horrific, and Idris was just out of this world scary.

 

Supporting Actor: Wouldn't be shocked if Tom Hardy gets some love. He has been getting just as much love that Leo is getting for Revenant. Its going to be an interesting season.

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