S32: Spoilers

[Wings]

In the promo when Jeff says that it is time to "make a move"  it shows Michele on the screen. My guess is she joins Julia and aligns with the guys to vote out Cydney causing millions of viewers to scream at their tvs.

 

 

I think this may happen, too.  

Missyae hasn't been right about anything in years. Why trust anything he says?

 

 

I don't.  :>)  It is that we have so little to go on I am compelled to take a closer look at anything.  Joe as the last medivac at F5 has a ring to it.  

[LanceM]

Well so much for Michele making a move tonight. Oops.  So, in the episode tonight Aubry said that Michele was oblivious to Julia's duplicitness which is why they didn't tell Michele of the change in voting plans.  However I just watched one of Michele's secret scenes and she is 100% aware that Julia wants to go to the end with those two.  The fact that they omitted Michele knowing this I don't think bodes well for Michele's winning chances.  She had been my winner pick for awhile now but now I am thinking it may be Aubry.

[Xazeal]

Yeah, that was not great for her. But she was legitimately out of the loop regarding the vote, so Aubry's comment may simply be the editors' way of explaining why they left Michele out. Not taking credit for this interpretation - Stephen brought it up in the Edgic place - but it's definitely possible. They could've done a lot worse by including some confident "we're totally all voting Tai for sure" confessional to emphasize how clueless she was

 

And someone like Michele beating someone like Aubry is definitely a plausible reason for Probst to hate the season. As of now, I'm still believing it.

[LadyChatts]

Michele had been my winner's pick for awhile, and I kept waiting for her big moment that would solidify that.  There's still time to go, but Aubry seems to be the one peaking at the right time.  Still, I think the only left who truly doesn't have any sort of shot is Jason, and probably Joe (actually, if it was a final 2 of Jason/Joe, I wonder if Jason could win in that case).  Anyway, while I'm still leaning towards a Michele/Aubry/Cydney victory, I can't say I'll be surprised if Julia or even Tai do something in the next couple of weeks to emerge as a winner.  Probst absolutely adores Julia, but from her edit on TV, it's hard to see why.  It's why I think a lot of good footage of her is being left on the cutting room floor, but Probst is saying 'screw it, I'll hype her anyway.'  Also, didn't Probst compare Michele to Parvati?  That might have been a pre-game assessment so he could have been off.

 

I wouldn't care if Aubry won.  In fact, that would somewhat redeem what a lousy season this has been.

[loki567]

I've been thinking Michele, Michele, Michele all season. For the first tonight I thought, "Hmm, maybe Audrey?" Survivor has gotten to the point where they really telegraph their winner. Michele's game is extremely minor, while Aubrey is dominating air-time. So if Michele were to win, this would be almost like an old school edit, the audience fan-favorite gets taken out at that last second, while the girl that nobody can remember scoots in to win it at the end. 

[thehepburn]

This is our winner. She backsteps into the win.

 

[nutty1]

I cannot imagine Michele winning. I do not remember her doing anything monumental or even memorable.

[Xazeal]

I can see it. I think this has the potential to be a very bitter jury - Julia/Jason/Scot in particular, all of whom are likely to vote for Michele at the end.

 

We keep hearing about Aubry's indecisiveness and always making the wrong decision (not so much in this episode) and if she wins final immunity and has to take someone to the end, she very well might make the "wrong" decision and take Michele because she's "easy to beat", only to lose the votes of the people she cut along the way. This could simply be the story of why Aubry lost, not why Michele won - we've seen this before.

[azshadowwalker]

Well so much for Michele making a move tonight. Oops. So, in the episode tonight Aubry said that Michele was oblivious to Julia's duplicitness which is why they didn't tell Michele of the change in voting plans. However I just watched one of Michele's secret scenes and she is 100% aware that Julia wants to go to the end with those two. The fact that they omitted Michele knowing this I don't think bodes well for Michele's winning chances.

Aubry says a lot of stuff. Not all of it is accurate. She may have no clue what Michele does or doesn’t know about Julia. I don't think Michele and Aubry talk much.

As for editing, the show has been obsessed with the assholery of the guys and the useless sideshow of Debbie. I don't consider the editing much of an indication of anything.

[LanceM]

Michele had been my winner's pick for awhile, and I kept waiting for her big moment that would solidify that.  There's still time to go, but Aubry seems to be the one peaking at the right time.  Still, I think the only left who truly doesn't have any sort of shot is Jason, and probably Joe (actually, if it was a final 2 of Jason/Joe, I wonder if Jason could win in that case).  Anyway, while I'm still leaning towards a Michele/Aubry/Cydney victory, I can't say I'll be surprised if Julia or even Tai do something in the next couple of weeks to emerge as a winner.  Probst absolutely adores Julia, but from her edit on TV, it's hard to see why.  It's why I think a lot of good footage of her is being left on the cutting room floor, but Probst is saying 'screw it, I'll hype her anyway.'  Also, didn't Probst compare Michele to Parvati?  That might have been a pre-game assessment so he could have been off.

 

I wouldn't care if Aubry won.  In fact, that would somewhat redeem what a lousy season this has been.

 

I disagree. It is easy to see why Jeff loves Julia. She is playing a very aggressive game. She is not afraid to make moves.  This is exactly the type of player that Jeff loves. He hates passive players.  His whole mantra is that you have to make big moves in order to win the game and even though it appears Julia's big moves have backfired I think Probst appreciates the effort. He also seemed to like her personally as well based on his comments made prior to the game starting

[Special K]

Aubry is playing great and getting stronger as the end draws near (Natalie Anderson comes to mind).

 

Michele has beautiful posture at tribal council.

 

That is my assessment.

[loki567]

 

As for editing, the show has been obsessed with the assholery of the guys and the useless sideshow of Debbie. I don't consider the editing much of an indication of anything.

 

Whatever the knock on this season, I think this actually been one of the most evenly balanced edits in the history of the show. I actually applaud the editors for not going overboard with Jason and Scot. They had big edits yes, but that mainly had to do with the Brawns going to tribal council so much. And Debbie's edit actually slowed down considerably after the tribe swap. 

[Cutty]

Aubry is playing great and getting stronger as the end draws near (Natalie Anderson comes to mind).

 

Michele has beautiful posture at tribal council.

 

That is my assessment.

As much as I like Aubry, Natalie was in a much stronger position at this point in the game. Aubry doesn't really have any solid allies at this point, and people realize how savvy and smart she is. She feels like a 5th or 4th place boot to me.

[loki567]

As much as I like Aubry, Natalie was in a much stronger position at this point in the game. Aubry doesn't really have any solid allies at this point, and people realize how savvy and smart she is. She feels like a 5th or 4th place boot to me.

 

Joe, Cydney, and Tai aren't working together without her. She's in the middle of everything right now. 

[Azgard12]

Michelle and Joe are so background, I can't see either winning.

 

I think Aubry and Tai have the best shot to win, just based on the way the story is being told.

[Oholibamah]

I could see this playing out with a Cydney-Aubry-Michele F3 where Aubry gets the votes from Neal/Debbie/Joe, Michele gets Nick/Jason/Scot/Julia, with Tai giving the win to Michele after being betrayed by Aubry.

This is consistent with Michele's edit, explains how she wins, matches the cryptic Reddit post about bullying (Julia v Cydney) and a brawn not winning, and makes the most sense.

Aaaaaand I would find it extremely satisfying to have an all-girl Top 3.

[Special K]

Joe is the ultimate goat here.  He is out Keith-ing Keith Nale.

[sadiegirl1999]

I feel like Michele's edit has been mostly invisible. I don't see her winning.

 

I mean, it's getting close to the end and there's one more medevac to go, the editors better step up the Michele game, then.

[Special K]

Re: the pending med-evac, Peter made some comment in his exit interviews that we should "keep track of how many Brains need medical care/go to the hospital."  So that maybe suggests a Brain goes -- I hope it's Joe, not Aubry.  Not that I wish ill on Joe, I just now want Aubry to win.  She seems to be getting physically and mentally stronger but of course an accident could happen at any time.

 

So far, of six Brains, Liz, Peter, and Neal have all needed significant medical intervention, and Debbie has been coy and noncommittal in her exit interviews about whether or not she did.  And she has been saying "I was down to 90/92 pounds at one point."  Either that's more of her hyperbole or could it suggest a medical situation while in Ponderosa?

Edited April 21, 2016 by Special K

[piequinn35]

The first preview of Joe lying down with the doctor, it's in-game not Ponderosa.

My GUESS is they will bring Bounty to the finals, the question is who will be sitting beside him? (The Reddit post is Bounty right?)

If medevac is next week, my guess again it would be Julia-Michelle-Jason vs Cydney-Aubry-Tai

[Special K]

If the speculation of "one of each in the finals" is correct (I do have doubts), maybe it's:
 

Jason/Tai/Aubry

or

Jason/Michele/Aubry

 

I don't think Julia gets that far (and will play again, if JP's admiration is any indication), and I think we believe Cydney is at Ponderosa, based on that clip of the legs on the pier (and her purple pants).

 

I wouldn't mind Cydney/Michele/Aubry but I don't think it's happening.

[thehepburn]

If medevac is next week, my guess again it would be Julia-Michelle-Jason vs Cydney-Aubry-Tai

 

The medevac is not next week since Dr Joe is still not back yet (as can be seen in the latest Ponderosa)

[thehepburn]

In all the excitement of last nite. I forgot to point out that with Scot gone (after Neal already leaving) that "F5 spoiler" is 0 for 2.  What an accurate spoiler! Hahahaha!

[nutty1]

In all the excitement of last nite. I forgot to point out that with Scot gone (after Neal already leaving) that "F5 spoiler" is 0 for 2.  What an accurate spoiler! Hahahaha!

 

I know a lot of people do not believe him. but so far, Missyae has been accurate.....his spoiled top 3 are still there and he says Joe goes out at the F5. So we shall see pretty soon. 

[bml1980]

I know a lot of people do not believe him. but so far, Missyae has been accurate.....his spoiled top 3 are still there and he says Joe goes out at the F5. So we shall see pretty soon. 

 

He hasn't been accurate though.  On the previous page of this thread someone said Missyae was claiming Joe was going to be the boot this past episode. Obviously, that didn't happen, and I'm pretty sure he's been wrong about other things this season.

 

He knows as much as any other viewer, and seems to base his speculation on information he finds on Survivor Sucks and Reddit.  The only times he's had accurate information was when certain Survivor contestants (including Russell Hantz) directly fed him information directly.  He's since been sued and has given out shoddy "spoilers" ever since. S25 seems to have been his last hurrah.

 

You can read more about all of it here: http://survivorsucks.com/topic/97930#.VxmXnPkrLIU

 

and here: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/01/31/survivor-spoiler-exposes-russell-hantz-as-his-source.html

 

There are much more accurate sources of spoiler information, mainly Redmond who offers casting spoilers, but doesn't ever get into boot lists.  I have no idea who leaked the (mostly) correct boot list for Second Chances last season, but it first appeared on Sucks and almost definitely wasn't Missyae, or else he would have tried to take credit for it.

 

It's fun that the Ponderosa "feet/leg" picture seems to be the most accurate spoiler information floating around this season and depends on good, old internet sleuthing vs. full boot lists being presented on a platter.

Edited April 22, 2016 by bml1980

[BK1978]

Michelle and Joe are so background, I can't see either winning.

 

I think Aubry and Tai have the best shot to win, just based on the way the story is being told.

 

I agree.  Right now I would consider it a disappointment if the winner is not either Aubry or Tai. If I am being honest it really should be Aubry as she has played the best game thus far.

Edited April 22, 2016 by BK1978

[nutty1]

He hasn't been accurate though.  On the previous page of this thread someone said Missyae was claiming Joe was going to be the boot this past episode. Obviously, that didn't happen, and I'm pretty sure he's been wrong about other things this season.

 

 

I know he isn't always accurate, but I am pretty positive he has been saying for some time that Joe goes out at F5. No where did he say he was booted last episode.

 I am not sticking up for him in any way, just stating what I think is accurate.

 

I will be interested to see if his boot list turns out correct. If not, I will be interested to see what he says.

 

What happened to the old days when there was a very accurate boot list for practically the whole season, every season?!

[thehepburn]

 

What happened to the old days when there was a very accurate boot list for practically the whole season, every season?!

 

there is a difference between getting an accurate bootlist vs. spoiling the final 2/3. the latter is far more common. Esp before Russell Hantz.

[Misty79]

I could see Jason and Scot, and maybe Nick, voting for Michelle as a FU to Aubry and Tai. They're vengeful types. 

[SVNBob]

Nah.  If Nick votes for Michelle, it won't be a vengeance vote.  It'll be a vote for himself.  He thought he was carrying her, so if she gets to the end and wins, it's validation for his game too.

[LanceM]

I think Jason and Scot are definitely Aubry votes as they do seem to respect her as shown by their comments last episode. The only way I can see Aubry not winning at this point is if she gets cut right before FTC.  That is how Michele might win this game.

 

(if there is one person who they definitely won't vote for is Tai. I can totally see them being vengeful about that)

Edited April 22, 2016 by LanceM

[thehepburn]

Yes, Aubry is the classic growth character who gets cut in the final episode.

[azshadowwalker]

Nah.  If Nick votes for Michelle, it won't be a vengeance vote.  It'll be a vote for himself.  He thought he was carrying her, so if she gets to the end and wins, it's validation for his game too.

Based on his Ponderosa and SM posts, I don't think Nick is vengeful or looking for validation. (He has already validated himself--haha) I also never got the impression that the alliance between him and Michele was anything but a mutual partnership or that either of them thought otherwise. If he voted for her, it might be because he saw her game up close and felt she actually was a strong player. That would go back to the question of edit, though.

[thehepburn]

Another rumor now debunked was that Julia had been contacted to return to play again.

According to Redmond, she was not even in the finals for S34, unlike Debbi, Aubry, Tai, and Caleb who kept their mouth shut and didnt start rumors that were all over the preseason.

 

I tried to find the original post but it had been deleted. Does anyone rememeber if it was in the same post that said she was in a fight with Cydney and that Julia makes a bitter jury speech? It's probably ALL untrue then.

[anthonyd46]

Another rumor now debunked was that Julia had been contacted to return to play again.

According to Redmond, she was not even in the finals for S34, unlike Debbi, Aubry, Tai, and Caleb who kept their mouth shut and didnt start rumors that were all over the preseason.

 

I tried to find the original post but it had been deleted. Does anyone rememeber if it was in the same post that said she was in a fight with Cydney and that Julia makes a bitter jury speech? It's probably ALL untrue then.

The post never said all of it was true. It says MOST OF IT was true.

 

It claims the following:

 

1. Julia gets in a fight with Cydney

2. Julia does not make the finals, but is a juror

3. Julia has no questions for the finalists instead yells at them and goes on a rant

4. This was all told by some school friend

5. Julia was contacted to play again

 

I have enough sources to believe 3 of those 5 are true.

[LadyChatts]

I think Julia could have been contacted, just didn't make it to the final roster. Probst loves her and I believe would have her back in a heartbeat, but maybe she doesn't fit whatever theme they are going for, or that they had people from this season they wanted to use first. I can see why Aubry, Debbie, Caleb, and Tai made it. Not sure why Peter of all people is being considered.

Since we still have a few eps to go until the finale, it's quite possible the rest does happen.

[cooksdelight]

Debbie has been coy and noncommittal in her exit interviews about whether or not she did. And she has been saying "I was down to 90/92 pounds at one point." Either that's more of her hyperbole or could it suggest a medical situation while in Ponderosa?

I think it's more of Debbie's embellishments and exaggerations. Along with her 50 careers. The woman lies and I think she doesn't even realize it.

[Wings]

On 4/23/2016 at 2:29 PM, LadyChatts said:

I think Julia could have been contacted, just didn't make it to the final roster. Probst loves her and I believe would have her back in a heartbeat, but maybe she doesn't fit whatever theme they are going for, or that they had people from this season they wanted to use first. I can see why Aubry, Debbie, Caleb, and Tai made it. Not sure why Peter of all people is being considered.

Since we still have a few eps to go until the finale, it's quite possible the rest does happen.

No Michele?  Another hint she is winner. 

[ItsJessMe]

I thought there was huge foreshadowing in the helicopter when Aubrey, Michelle and Cydney pointed out that they represented Brains, Brawn and Beauty.  Will be interesting to see if that's right.

[Special K]

7 minutes ago, ItsJessMe said:

I thought there was huge foreshadowing in the helicopter when Aubrey, Michelle and Cydney pointed out that they represented Brains, Brawn and Beauty.  Will be interesting to see if that's right.

Agree with this.  And it would make me very happy if that is the final three!

[piequinn35]

^^ me 3

 

maybe Michelle will have an immunity run and win this...

Edited April 28, 2016 by piequinn35

[azshadowwalker]

I don't know that Michele even needs an immunity run to get to the end. If there really is one more medevac, and that person is Joe (which seems likely, considering the way he dropped out of the challenge last night), Aubry loses one of her male followers. That could give Michele and Cydney the chance to join with Kyle and boot Tai and/or Aubry. Or maybe Cydney gets idoled/advantaged out by Tai, then it comes down to either Aubry (inexplicably) going with Michele and Kyle to boot Tai or a tied vote at final four that goes to fire. Tai loses, so Aubry, Michele and Kyle get to the end. That would be the brains, beauty, brawn that was hinted at in the episode description. At this point, though, only Aubry (with the help of her stooges) might be focusing on Michele to vote out. I don't think Cydney or Kyle would have a reason to target her.

[anthonyd46]

New Preview:

I feel like Cydney is out this week. Maybe because of Tai's advantage I'm not sure. I just feel like she isn't making the finals. Redmond claimed its a final 3 apparently which makes no sense. If that ponderosa thing is accurate the only ones missing are Neal, Aubry, and Michele. I just don't see how it can be a final 3 AND the ponderosa thing be right. It has to be a final 2 of Aubry and Michele or the picture is not the jury. Nothing else makes sense. 

 

So this week Cydney. Then Joe leaves for medical. Making the finale Tai, Jason, Michele, Aubry which fits all 3 tribes and I'm guessing Jason either wins immunity or gets dragged to the end but the surprise final 2 is why he's not in the finals. 

Edited April 29, 2016 by anthonyd46

[kakiphony]

As much as I want Aubry to win, I think I'm finally seeing the Michelle path to victory, and it's not one I love because it's based on juror bitterness. I started thinking about who is on the jury now, and the likely final two and final three with Bounty (because I am still torn about whether the Reddit post spoiler or the legs on the dock spoiler is more accurate) scenarios.

Of the known jurors I think the most likely votes are:
Neal - Aubry
Nick - Michelle
Debbie - Michelle (because she feels betrayed by Aubry and never really respected her after the panic attack)
Scot - Aubry (because he respects gameplay, but Julia could convince him to vote Michelle and the post-game photos of them together support this)
Julia - Michelle (out of friendship and loyalty)

And then we have the not-yet-on-the-jury people:
Cydney - I think if she gets voted out and Aubry is a part of it, she's a lock for Michelle. If Aubry keeps her hands clean, she could keep this vote, but not if she participates
Tai - Same scenario as Cydney. I think he feels locked onto Aubry now, and if she maintains having his back, she's his. But if she is complicit in his boot, he switches to Michelle as she has proven herself no more trustworthy than the boys
Joe - Lock for Aubry
Bounty - I think he votes Aubry because he actually respects her game play, but like Scot, I think he could be convinced to vote Michelle by Julia.

If it's a final 3, I think it's largely the same scenario as above, except that Scot votes for Bounty. I don't think he gets any other votes.

So it's possible that Aubry keeps her hands clean and gets the votes of Cyd and Tai, but I think that's not likely and because she kept them close at the end, they are resentful. 

 

[loki567]

I think that's a realistic scenario, kakiphony. I'm hopeful that Michele's just a F3 player who gets a couple votes and makes it interesting but ultimately loses to Aubry. Some of the edgic sites I visit have made the point whenever there's a bitter jury votes situation, they really try to make the loser look really bad through the season (ex. Russell and Coach) where the audience understands why they lost. Aubry hasn't gotten that. She's gotten funny confessionals, sympathetic scenes, and good analysis about other players. 

[ForeverAlone]

I personally think that IF Aubry makes it to the finals, she will win. But since I am not getting the feeling she wins, I tend to think she will just miss FTC. 

[LanceM]

Uh oh, Dr. Joe is back....

[anthonyd46]

On April 30, 2016 at 1:42 PM, ForeverAlone said:

I personally think that IF Aubry makes it to the finals, she will win. But since I am not getting the feeling she wins, I tend to think she will just miss FTC. 

She isn't in the pier shot though.

[LadyChatts]

After tonight, I'm going back to a Michele win.  She's going to win likely on popularity.  I think there's a chance Cydney could win, but Michele seems to have more friends on the jury.  Hopefully Tai plays his idol next week, if he doesn't win immunity, as I have a feeling he's going to be gone otherwise.  

[nutty1]

I am thinking Michele wins also. Tai would be crazy not to play his idol, it is the last time he could use it.