Supergirl Scheduling and Ratings: Circulation Audits

[Just Here]

As mentioned in the media thread, Supergirl will be airing on CBS on Mondays at 8pm, starting in November, after Thursday Night Football (NFL) ends.

 

 

To get a quick idea of the ratings competition, I pulled the most recent Monday broadcast ratings, which had a new Gotham episode, as well as live episodes of Supergirl's reality show competition, The Voice (NBC) and Dancing with the Stars (ABC).

 

Final Nielsen ratings (Live + Same Day) for May 4th (Gotham's season finale), via TVByTheNumbers:

• NBC -- The Voice: 2.3  18-49 demo (9.90 million total viewers)
• ABC -- Dancing with the Stars: 1.9  18-49 demo (12.43 million viewers) {averaged over two hours}
• FOX -- Gotham: 1.7  18-49 demo (4.93 million viewers)
• CBS -- 2 Broke Girls: 1.7  18-49 demo (6.43 million viewers) {first half-hour only}
• CW -- The Originals: 0.5  18-49 demo (1.14 million viewers)

 

Based on this snapshot, I'm not seeing any ratings juggernauts to be worried about, though the spring viewing situation is different from the fall season.  Supergirl will probably shave a little from Gotham (e.g. a 0.1 or 0.2 in the 18-49 demo), which is limping to syndication, if it makes it that far. And, I'd be curious to see how the specific demos (e.g., 18-34 overall and male/female age demos) compare between the two series. I almost think that Warner Brothers wants to segment the hour between a male-skewing Gotham, and a female-skewing Supergirl, just to have each show seem more superlative in their gender demos.

 

Regarding Supergirl's lead-out, Scorpion, that series finished with a 2.2 in the 18-49 demo and 10.71 million viewers (Live+SD), for its April 20th season finale (via CBS press release).  I think it's definitely possible (and even likely) for Supergirl to do much better than Scorpion, in terms of demos and total viewers, but ABC's reboot of V stands out as a cautionary tale of an established sci-fi brand that started out very strong, but fizzled quickly.

 

[FurryFury]

I just hope this show will be better (and a bit different) than The Flash because I'm not sure the target audience of that show would really cross over to Supergirl, and people who will tune in (like, say, women) may not be satisfied by the same thing all over again. I know I wouldn't.

[Kromm]

Frankly I think its a troubling timeslot for the show and it's going to get killed there.  That said, hopefully CBS has a backup plan and rather than just giving up on the show either will understand it needs a few seasons to grow an audience in that slot, or moves it when it inevitably doesn't put out the kind of ratings that the lame CBS comedies usually did in the same slot.

[legaleagle53]

The fact that it goes directly up against DWTS doesn't bother me, as that show ends its fall season the third week of November and I watch it online nowadays anyway (as I will also do with Supergirl.  I think it will do just fine, as it's something new for CBS, and CBS tends to be more patient with its new shows than, say, FOX does.

[MarkHB]

I think CBS knows what it's getting into; they have to broaden their viewership or they'll be completely reliant on revenue from the pharmaceutical industry.  So long as the people who do tune in like what they see, they manage to draw people in as time goes on, and they come someplace cost to covering their costs (I saw credible reports that the pilot, which of course included all the primary set construction that they can reuse and amortize, cost 14 million dollars), I think they'll keep it on for a bit.  Not to mention: if you have tween/early teen girls at home (I have nieces in that range), would you rather they watch this, or The Bachelor?

[FurryFury]

I don't think they care about teenage or tween viewers, they care about 20year old adults.

Edited May 14, 2015 by FurryFury

[MarkHB]

I don't think they care about teenage or tween viewers, they care about 20year old adults.

 

I totally agree with you; I care about my nieces :) .  Plus, parents of kids that age still usually fall into 18-49.

[FurryFury]

Oh, I sure hope that parents of young girls will induce them to watch this rather than Pretty Little Liars or something. I mean, I grew up on Buffy The Vampire Slayer and I'm so thankful I did.

My only fear is that young people don't really care about CBS drama, it seems. Comedies, sure, TBBT and HIMYM have/had huge 18-34 demos, but their dramas are aging and have a certain reputation. I also feel like the possibility of crossovers with The Flash/Arrow could have brought a few viewers, but I think it's been implied they don't share the same world (I'm not a big fan of those shows at this point so I don't care, I'm speaking from the business perspective).

[Kromm]

I don't think they care about teenage or tween viewers, they care about 20year old adults.

True. If they did, she'd be the classic Supergirl. Who's been anywhere from 15 to 17. Age 24 is far less common for the character.

[WaitandHope]

I really want this show to work. As a 40 YO woman who has 10 YO daughters, I'm going to watch it with them...but I'm pretty skeptical of its success. I really knew the Flash was going to work with the CW's lower ratings requirements and the tie-in to Arrow, it seemed like a sure thing. So I encouraged them to watch and they've loved it! (Unfortunately they've also started watching Arrow which involves me FFing a LOT.)

This will be the first show I encourage them to watch where I'm very much doubtful that it will succeed. It just seems too outside CBS's wheelhouse and I'm very curious what numbers they are going to require it to bring in - both raw numbers and demos for it to stay on the air.

It's one thing to want to skew younger, it's another thing to develop and air a show that's the polar opposite of everything else airing on the network. Will younger females find this show? Who will advertise? My kids only watch Amazing Race on this network and I am watching Good Wife but teetering on the edge of dropping it. So I'm just curious what other TV shows this show has ANY synergy with I this network. It seems like cross-promotion is almost impossible.

I really will be pulling for it though - as almost a feminist and Girl Power statement to network executives. I'm just dreading it's possible failure and inevitable skepticism of female superhero projects. But I hope to be proven wrong. So go Berlanti and team!

[Kromm]

I really want this show to work. As a 40 YO woman who has 10 YO daughters, I'm going to watch it with them...but I'm pretty skeptical of its success. I really knew the Flash was going to work with the CW's lower ratings requirements and the tie-in to Arrow, it seemed like a sure thing. So I encouraged them to watch and they've loved it! (Unfortunately they've also started watching Arrow which involves me FFing a LOT.)

This will be the first show I encourage them to watch where I'm very much doubtful that it will succeed. It just seems too outside CBS's wheelhouse and I'm very curious what numbers they are going to require it to bring in - both raw numbers and demos for it to stay on the air.

It's one thing to want to skew younger, it's another thing to develop and air a show that's the polar opposite of everything else airing on the network. Will younger females find this show? Who will advertise? My kids only watch Amazing Race on this network and I am watching Good Wife but teetering on the edge of dropping it. So I'm just curious what other TV shows this show has ANY synergy with I this network. It seems like cross-promotion is almost impossible.

I really will be pulling for it though - as almost a feminist and Girl Power statement to network executives. I'm just dreading it's possible failure and inevitable skepticism of female superhero projects. But I hope to be proven wrong. So go Berlanti and team!

The hue and cry on the Internet over how "Rom Com" and "girly" the trailer made it seem should, unfortunately worry you then.  The general assumption seeming to be not only that those assertions were accurate, but also that they were either bad things, or totally incompatible with a superhero show.  I mean we spoke about this in another topic--even the song at the end, called "Fight Song" and filled with those key girl power lyrics (not even saying if it was a good or bad song--that's immaterial to the overreactions to it), was taken the wrong way by the amorphous mob called "The Internet".

[FurryFury]

Unfortunately they've also started watching Arrow which involves me FFing a LOT.

 

Heh. I don't think the first 2 seasons of Arrow's are that bad (personally I think it's way more family friendly than stuff like Once Upon A Time that contains stuff like constant villain apology and 2 cases of magical rape yet seems to be regarded as suitable for children), but I'm probably not the best person to judge - I've started reading Stephen King at 11 (and not the kiddy stuff, books like the unabridged version of The Stand) while my favorite shows at 11 were The X-Files and LEXX , and I'm not the best example of a well-adjusted adult (don't blame the media though).

 

So I'm just curious what other TV shows this show has ANY synergy with I this network

 

Comedies. The Big Bang Theory has huge ratings, young people included. How I Met Your Mother did as well. I don't watch any CBS shows except for Person of Interest (which is fantastic), but maybe some other sitcoms also have young viewers.

[Trini]

It's one thing to want to skew younger, it's another thing to develop and air a show that's the polar opposite of everything else airing on the network. Will younger females find this show? Who will advertise? My kids only watch Amazing Race on this network and I am watching Good Wife but teetering on the edge of dropping it. So I'm just curious what other TV shows this show has ANY synergy with I this network. It seems like cross-promotion is almost impossible.

 

Well, I don't know about demos and such, but it's being paired with Scorpion which is just about as ridiculous as a show with a flying, bulletproof alien in a cape. And I'm sure that fellow WB production Big Bang Theory can write in some Supergirl references.

 

I want the show to do good, too. If it's good (and it does look good so far) I think people will come.

[Kromm]

Scorpion is a really badly written show though.  I kinda wish that the closest matching CBS comedies HAD been left on Monday and that Supergirl had simply had them as a lead in.  I mean despite being about nerd culture (which often can tend towards the misogynistic at its worst--see many of the nerd-rage-driven net reactions to the Supergirl trailer for examples), The Big Bang Theory has been made fairly nerd-GIRL friendly.  So it's GOT a piece of the potential SG audience in its grasp already, and the audience for 2 Broke Girls, while generally cruder and likely expecting sex and dick jokes, at least is younger and MIGHT be good for SG. Instead, by putting SG in the PLACE of those shows, rather than complimenting them, it instead may be growing resentment from their fanbases (possibly part of the nerd-attack on SG could even be based on that).  

[MarkHB]

TBBT has been on Thursdays since fall 2010, though; last season was the first since then that they moved it back to Monday, to make room for Thursday Night Football.  I do see your point about lead-in compatibility, though, but it seems like they want to keep Scorpion where it is.

[MarkHB]

From the Media thread:
 

If scheduling holds though, DWTS should end its fall run around mid-November and not pick up again until March and the Voice usually wraps it fall run in early Demember and doesn't start its spring run until late February and Gotham should be headed into its winter break by mid-November as well and not return until after the New Year.

If Supergirl starts right after DWTS ends (figure Nov 16) they're going to start out mostly competing with repeats/filler series at a time of year where people are looking for solid family fare and with the late start and a full season order it would have enough episodes to basically run straight through to May with only a couple of break weeks so people won't have much chance to skip a week to check something else out without missing the newest episode.

The late start is almost certainly a part of trying to maximize their potential audience and based on the above data it seems they might have a decent shot at doing so with a mid-November launch.

I think there are two things in play here.  First, Thursday Night Football ends for CBS on October 29.  Last year, TBBT ran its last Monday night episode the week of the last TNF broadcast and picked up on Thursday 10 days later; I don't doubt that the same pattern will follow this year.  Second, Greg Berlanti said, I believe last week, that they essentially agreed to a reduced guaranteed order from CBS in exchange for the network signing off on Melissa as the star and Glen Winter directing the pilot with a minimum of fuss.  Aside from that, this past fall DWTS ended the last week of November, just before Thanksgiving.

 

What I take from this is that it is most likely that Supergirl will premiere on November 2, up against (in all likelihood) the Top 6 dance on DWTS and the last Knockout round on The Voice.  If they run straight through (i.e., not breaking for Thanksgiving week), they have 7 Mondays from Nov. 2 to December 14, at which point they will most likely break until January.  Obviously, we don't know how reduced that order is, and I don't know how much time after Nov. 2 CBS will have to make the decision on a "back 9" pickup (although Nina Tassler was said to be in tears after watching the pilot, so maybe she'll give the go-ahead before it even airs, just from viewing the episodes).

[quarks]

There's a third thing in play here, based on CBS financial reports, which is that CBS is now reporting receiving more revenue from post views than live views, sporting events excepted.  I have no idea if Supergirl will fit this pattern, but Agents of SHIELD and Arrow do, so it's possible.

[Chris24601]

There's a third thing in play here, based on CBS financial reports, which is that CBS is now reporting receiving more revenue from post views than live views, sporting events excepted.  I have no idea if Supergirl will fit this pattern, but Agents of SHIELD and Arrow do, so it's possible.

I suspect it will. DWTS and the Voice probably have a bit more 'must watch live' because of their 'contest' aspect, while Supergirl could easily be something you put off an hour and catch via DVR (as I'd been doing with Agents of SHIELD and iZombie and am still doing with A.D. and Game of Thrones) or next day via internet the same way you might not catch a new movie on opening night because you've got other things going on.

[MarkHB]

ITA. In fact, I'll possibly be watching next-day via OnDemand for exactly that reason (DVR being occupied with The Voice and DWTS).

[legaleagle53]

And I will be watching it on Hulu the next day in any event because I don't have cable and rabbit ears only give me one religious station whose broadcast clarity is iffy at best, so I have to watch ALL of my shows on Hulu at least a day later, depending on my schedule.

[The Crazed Spruce]

Myself, I'm an old-school comic book fanboy, so I'll be torn between this show and Gotham. Either way, I'll be taping one show and watching the other.

[BkWurm1]

Well, I don't know about demos and such, but it's being paired with Scorpion which is just about as ridiculous as a show with a flying, bulletproof alien in a cape.

 

Scorpion really isn't a bad pairing.  I don't know their ratings demo's but just as a casual viewer, I can see it working.  The show does have an element of escapism about it and is generally not that heavy.   

 

It also actually has a couple important female team members that IMO both play with stereotypes and defy them (since the contributions made by Paige - basically the den mother/spokesperson/facilitator for the high strung geniuses-  are actually acknowledged as valuable, something rarely seen IMO on TV)

 

And it typically has either a caper and or some kind of action going on.   It's never going to win any awards, but I can see families letting one show roll right into the next. 

 

Personally, the show that should not be anywhere near Supergirl is Two Broke Girls, but that might be my bias showing.  I feel dumber  every time I've foolishly sat through it. 

[Miss Dee]

I wish it could be on the same night as Person of Interest. .. that show is pretty good towards women as well.

[FurryFury]

Very different demos. Person of Interest has older leads (especially the original duo of Reese and Finch) and has pretty low 18-34 demos, while Supergirl is geared towards a younger audience. And really, they are pretty different in tone as well. Not to mention that PoI is shelved until times unknown because of low ratings.

Edited May 29, 2015 by FurryFury

[MarkHB]

Canadian viewers: Global has picked up the show.  No word on the UK yet that I've seen.

[Trini]

Cross-posting the news:

 

CBS announced their fall premiere plans; Supergirl will premiere after Big Bang Theory on Oct. 26th (8:30pm), then in its regular timeslot on Nov. 2 (8:00pm).

 

Looks like they're doing as much as they can to prop it up for a good debut.

[Kromm]

Looks like they're doing as much as they can to prop it up for a good debut.

True, but they HAVE only ordered 13 episodes.

 

What's not clear is if that's an absolute 13, or if they're trying to pace it (and plot it) for a possible "back 9" order.

 

It does mean it's going to have to get some decent numbers right out of the gate for that to be possible though.

[BkWurm1]

I'm already seeing promos for it on CBS.  I would be VERY surprised if the 13 isn't just the initial order with the rest of the season ready to be green lit if the first handful of episodes get a good reception.  That's what they did with Gotham. 

 

Legends of Tomorrow is the only show by Berlanti that seems to be only getting 13 episodes for the season. 

[Kromm]

I'm already seeing promos for it on CBS.  I would be VERY surprised if the 13 isn't just the initial order with the rest of the season ready to be green lit if the first handful of episodes get a good reception.  That's what they did with Gotham. 

 

Legends of Tomorrow is the only show by Berlanti that seems to be only getting 13 episodes for the season. 

Well that's what "back 9" means.  Typically that IS how CBS operates--if s show doesn't get the back 9 they rarely renew it--but I can see with an expensive enough show, on a packed season (with lots of Winter/Spring shows planned) the possibility of an absolute 13 episode season having been planned too.  It's rare, but it happens (and it IS interesting that Legends of Tomorrow is going that way deliberately--it might mean that Berlanti is PITCHING shows that way this year).

 

We shall see.

[BkWurm1]

Berlenti has said that at least one of the reasons that LoT is 13 episodes is it's going to be expensive. Maybe they are getting a 23 episode budget for 13 episodes? 

 

I don't think that is the case for Supergirl since ironically going to CBS was about them HAVING the big enough budget to be able to afford the show's effects.

 

Also, CBS has been wanting in on the Superhero show furor hitting the network channels (and reach a younger demo).  I don't see a mere 13 episode commitment doing much to change their direction, not when they are going to be competing against full season orders of AoS on ABC and Gotham on Fox and all three shows on CW (though that's their netlet so I doubt they see it as competition). 

 

But you are right, we shall see. 

Edited July 10, 2015 by BkWurm1

[FurryFury]

Pretty sure CBS is just doing the usual, 13 episodes order for a new show with a possibility of back nine. They are only giving 13 episode treatment to shows that are ending - like the last season of The Mentalist and now (sadly) Person of Interest.

[Serena]

13 with the possibility of a back 9 is the norm for a new show. Every show gets that.

[MarkHB]

Some discussion of the show being picked up in the UK:

 

In news surprising no one, Supergirl is one of the most sought after series this year behind only The Muppets (already acquired by Sky1) and Arrow spin-off DC’s Legends Of Tomorrow. Sources at WB are being unusually quiet on this one and it has been difficult to pin down exactly what’s going in regards to a UK sale....

 

(The linked page includes some further speculation about networks.)

[MarkHB]

Australia pickup: Fox8 has landed both Supergirl and Legends of Tomorrow..

[pootlus]

Oh crap, I was hoping that Netflix would get to air them here.  I guess that means it's back to DUM.

[MarkHB]

It's official: Sky 1 has picked up Supergirl in the UK. The show will premiere October 29 at 8 Pm, three days after the US premiere.

[Kromm]

It's official: Sky 1 has picked up Supergirl in the UK. The show will premiere October 29 at 8 Pm, three days after the US premiere.

Sometimes the way UK channels do things massively confuses me. Waiting until 2 weeks before a premiere to even announce they have a show?  It's like they have no concept that a show they spend lots of money to get the rights to might require lots of advanced publicity.

[Artsda]

Supergirl lands fall's biggest premiere audience

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/10/27/supergirl-premiere-ratings

 

Look, up in the sky: It’s CBS’ ratings for Supergirl.

 
The series premiere of the action-adventure series opened strong Monday night, delivering a fall new series record of 14 million viewers and a 3.2 rating among adults 18–49.

 

The debut was aided by a hearty push from opener The Big Bang Theory, and plenty of marketing and buzz surrounding the title — the first female-focused costumed superhero show to hit a Big 4 broadcast network in decades.

 

The previous record holders this season among new shows were CBS’ Life in Pieces (11.3 million viewers) among total viewers and NBC’s procedural thriller Blindspot (3.1 rating). Supergirl could adjust to tie the Blindspot number in the demo when the nationals come in later today, but its total viewership audience tally will remain a clear No. 1 for the fall.

[Sakura12]

It's always good to do good ratings for the first episode, but it's the ratings for the second and third episode that determine a shows staying power. 

Edited October 27, 2015 by Sakura12

[Kromm]

"Circulation Audits"? Is that a newspaper reference somehow?

 

I'd go simple and call the topic "Superratings?"

As for the 14 million viewers and a 3.2 rating among adults 18–49? If it can hold even 75% of that, it would probably count as a smash hit these days.

[CabotCove]

Final ratings- 3.1 demo,   12.96 million total viewers

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/10/27/monday-final-ratings-oct-26-2015/480757/

 

Sadly didn't hold but still really good numbers. Well done Supergirl!.

[Kromm]

A million less viewers than first estimated?  Ouch. How do they miscalculate that much?

 

The 18-49 demo stuck pretty close though.

[Kromm]

I talk a LOT more about this in the media thread, because I think it affects the show marketing a TON, but the huge 18-34 female presence in those ratings is important. It's been a hard to reach market for Superhero shows and in fact is where a lot of the nerd rage AGAINST the show came from (perception that the show was too "girly"--a subject more fit for the media topic).  Just from the standpoint of talking about the pure numbers though (as opposed to how it affects the marketing) that's important here too.

[The Crazed Spruce]

In case you missed it (or just want to re-watch it), CBS is reairing the pilot tonight.

[thuganomics85]

Second episode ratings: 8.85 million viewers, 2.2 in the 18-49 demo.  Sizable drop, but I guess that was kind of to be expected.  Curious to see how the DVR numbers will fare and it will steady out soon, or drop a bit more.

[TLoyd]

Second episode ratings: 8.85 million viewers, 2.2 in the 18-49 demo.  Sizable drop, but I guess that was kind of to be expected.  Curious to see how the DVR numbers will fare and it will steady out soon, or drop a bit more.

The demo drop though.    The demo drop will pick up on other devices but isn't the demo what they were wanting for  CBS since it skews older?

[stealinghome]

A 2.2 will still probably make it CBS' top drama of the week. NCIS is the only other CBS drama that averages over a 2.0 these days.

 

Given how frankly pathetic the rest of CBS' lineup is doing, along with how much reputation is on the line, Supergirl would have to fall into the 1.3 range to be in any real danger imo.

[TLoyd]

A 2.2 will still probably make it CBS' top drama of the week. NCIS is the only other CBS drama that averages over a 2.0 these days.

 

Given how frankly pathetic the rest of CBS' lineup is doing, along with how much reputation is on the line, Supergirl would have to fall into the 1.3 range to be in any real danger imo.

I didn't say anything about it being in danger.

 

I just thought it was their big  show to  get a younger audience so the drop may have been a disappointment. 

[Kromm]

The main disappointment is it not winning it's timeslot.  Then again The Voice is a juggernaut (although, honestly, why aren't people sick of it yet?)

 

And actually if you don't go by the demo and go by viewers, it actually only came in THIRD in it's slot, since Dancing With The Stars gets even more viewers than The Voice, but they're often outside the 18-49 demo (old farts and children mainly watch it, basically).

updated ratings: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/11/03/monday-final-ratings-nov-2-2015/481845/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Tvbythenumbers+%28TVbytheNumbers%29

[legaleagle53]

And actually if you don't go by the demo and go by viewers, it actually only came in THIRD in it's slot, since Dancing With The Stars gets even more viewers than The Voice, but they're often outside the 18-49 demo (old farts and children mainly watch it, basically).

 

*AHEM*  I happen to watch DWTS (albeit a day later on Hulu, since I don't have cable.  It's also how I watch Supergirl the next day after IT airs).  Just how young a child am I?  :-P