Supergirl Scheduling and Ratings: Circulation Audits

[stealinghome]

Mods, would it be possible to open a "S1 Rewatch Thread" for the CW's re-airing of the first season starting on Monday? Since it's going to be two episodes a week, I thought it might be nice to not have to go into two separate episode threads constantly to talk about each week's episodes. If not no worries!

[Kromm]

3 hours ago, stealinghome said:

Mods, would it be possible to open a "S1 Rewatch Thread" for the CW's re-airing of the first season starting on Monday? Since it's going to be two episodes a week, I thought it might be nice to not have to go into two separate episode threads constantly to talk about each week's episodes. If not no worries!

We don't really need Mods to start threads. Unless you are asking for pre-scheduled locked ones.

Also, I wouldn't assume they'll see a comment in a typical thread. You really need to do something like hit the report button on your own post to ensure they will.

[stealinghome]

Yeah, but some mods don't like episode discussion outside of dedicated ep threads, and would likely just merge a rewatch thread into episode threads. As that would defeat the purpose of a rewatch thread, I figured I'd ask to see if there were objections before going ahead with it. I hate when threads get merged, so!

[MarkHB]

12 hours ago, Kromm said:

Also, I wouldn't assume they'll see a comment in a typical thread. You really need to do something like hit the report button on your own post to ensure they will.

Well secluded, we see all :)

The Rewatch thread has been started.  Enjoy!

[Trini]

Season 2 is 22 episodes.

[Trini]

Also the network president is expecting it to be #1 or 2 in ratings for CW. I don't know if they'll actually cancel it if it doesn't, but that's the goal.

Quote

With Supergirl's rating drop-off during its first season on CBS, Pedowitz shared his expectations for the series when it kicks off its second season on The CW in October. "There's no question it probably will not do as well as it did on CBS, even at the end (of the first season). But whatever it does it will probably be either our number one or two show this season so that's where my expectations are."

[stealinghome]

I think that's doable. The Flash was #1 last season at 1.37, Arrow #2 at 0.94 (and Legends of Tomorrow #3 at 0.80.). I doubt Supergirl will beat The Flash, but I think/hope it will settle in the 0.9-1.0 mark and should at least be close to #2. If it's lower than #3, it would be a major disappointment imo.

Though I doubt they cancel it unless it tanks with, like, 0.3s. And heck, even then brand affiliation might save it.

Edited August 11, 2016 by stealinghome

[Kendra]

The only thing I'm worried about is it has such a tough timeslot. Competing with DWTS and the Voice (both of which are typically watched live) and Gotham. Plus, being paired with one of the lowest rating CW shows, Jane the Virgin. 

I'm hoping for #2, but I'm thinking it might fall in at #3. 

[stealinghome]

FYI, season 1 will be on Netflix September 10.

[HeroWorld]

Quote

The only thing I'm worried about is it has such a tough timeslot. Competing with DWTS and the Voice (both of which are typically watched live) and Gotham. 

Also don't forget Monday Night Football. Tough timeslot indeed.

[The Crazed Spruce]

But it's not competing against Crazy Ex Girlfriend this year, so there's that, at least....

[Kendra]

I honestly can't decide where it will fall in the ratings on the CW. I can see it being as high as #2 but possibly as low as #5. I've seen a few say that to compare its ratings with CW shows, you should divide by 2. So Supergirl had a 1.68 average on CBS. That would be comparable to  .84 on the CW, which would have put it third (with LoT not far behind it at all). That's where I think it will end up settling in, but it has such a tough time slot because of everyone watching competition shows and sports (which are pretty much the main two things people watch live now.) and typically the female led shows on the CW don't do as well in the ratings. I don't know if that's just coincidence, or if there is some kind of reason for that???? 

I'm really curious to see what kind of ratings the superman episodes bring in, which are the first two of the season. If those episodes are big, by CW standards, than I think the show will do very well. If they aren't comparable at least to the flash ratings, then I think that could be a sign the show might not perform as well as CW/WB hoped. 

[stealinghome]

Quote

 and typically the female led shows on the CW don't do as well in the ratings. I don't know if that's just coincidence, or if there is some kind of reason for that???? 

Because the stereotypical CW viewer is a 12-16 year old girl who watches a CW show to drool over the brooding, hot male lead (who is usually an asshole, but teenage girls interpret asshole behavior as "tortured" or "damaged but my love can fix him" instead of asshole). The Vampire Diaries was the network's flagship for a long time, which kind of tells you all you need to know. Though I do think the new president has been vocal about trying to change their image, right?

I'm not worried about the timeslot competition per se...Supergirl faced most of the same shows last fall, and I have to be honest, I'm thinking the target audience for Supergirl doesn't overlap with MNF, at least. I'm far, far more concerned about the network change. I don't think the average viewer knows about it. The CW has been doing a lot of promo on their network, but they're preaching to the choir there. They need to start putting the full-court press on in other places--TV Guide, annoying youtube commercials, sidebar ads, etc etc etc. If you didn't follow the show online you would have no clue it's moving. As much as it makes my molars grind to say it, if the point of bringing in Superman is to boost the ratings, they also need to start shouting from the rooftops that Superman is coming to the show. There was a lot of initial buzz but they need to double down hard in the next month because again, I don't think it's widely known.

I do think Supergirl will battle Arrow for the #2 slot. Supergirl really SHOULD be able to outperform Legends of Tomorrow (which, we should note, is up against Thursday Night Football and Grey's) and Supernatural, barring some sort of crazy SPN ratings resurgence. It certainly will be better than JtV, Crazy Ex, and TVD. No Tomorrow and Frequency look to me like they might start out hot (though they might also tank--No Tomorrow looks duuumb), but I question their staying power.

I do think Supergirl will probably slightly underperform the CW's expectations, though.

[The Crazed Spruce]

I'm predicting that the ratings will dip a little, and Flash will still pull in better numbers, but it'll still be the CW's highest-rated show in that timeslot. They'll lose viewers simply because the network's in fewer markets, but it'll leech off much of Crazy Ex Girlfriend's audience, which will offset most of the dip.

The streaming ratings will probably stay steady, though, and might even pick up a bit. People who watched the first season online are probably gonna do the same, and it won't matter to them if they use CBS Go or CW Seed.

[Kendra]

Supergirl will surely be a better option for CW on Monday nights than anything they've had for a while. Really ANYTHING should be better than what they had there last year. As critically acclaimed as CEG was, it's ratings were incredibly low, even for CW standards. 

I personally am getting the feeling that Supergirl is completely retooling the show. I think if viewers didn't watch season one, it's not going to matter much and they are going to be able to jump right in at season 2 without feeling like they missed anything. I could be wrong, but that's the vibe I've been getting from the spoilers for season 2 so far. I am hoping that the cw viewers who didn't check out super girl because it was on CBS, or those that checked it out but were turned off by the "CBS-ness" that plagued the first season, will tune in now that it's on the same network as the other Flarrow-verse shows. The fact that The Flash crossover bumped Supergirl's ratings by almost half a point proved to me that there is audience that might be willing to watch if they can try and better connect Supergirl with the other DC shows. And it sounds like that's what they are going to try and do now that it's on the CW, with a 4-way crossover AND a musical crossover. 

CW ratings last year ended with:

Flash- 1.34, Arrow - 0.94, LoT - 0.8, Supernatural - 0.7, iZombi- 0.53, and then everything else was below a 0.5. How some managed to avoid cancellation, even for being on the CW, is a bit surprising to me. I'm curious to see where Supergirl will fall and whether its ratings can compete with The Flash, or could it be closer to LoT levels. Right now I'm going with it being CW's third highest rated show, just barely behind Arrow. But like I said earlier, I'm really interested to see how its opening two episodes perform. 

[stealinghome]

Quote

How some managed to avoid cancellation, even for being on the CW, is a bit surprising to me.

I think I read somewhere that the CW is up for review as a network this year, and having lots of long-running shows makes it look better, so they didn't want to ax ANYTHING this year. Even shows that by rights should have been.

Well, and JtV/CEG are somewhat helped by critical acclaim and awards.

I agree that we are seeing a soft reboot of Supergirl on the CW.

[Trini]

I think Supergirl will be #2 or #3 in ratings for CW. #1 is also possible, but I'm not getting my hopes up; I think the change of networks will cause a significant drop.

[MarkHB]

13 hours ago, Kendra said:

or those that checked it out but were turned off by the "CBS-ness" that plagued the first season

Just curious: what do you mean by "CBS-ness"?

[HeroWorld]

Quote

typically the female led shows on the CW don't do as well in the ratings. I don't know if that's just coincidence, or if there is some kind of reason for that???? 

They used to do well, Vampire Diaries, Gossip Girl, Hart of Dixie etc were sucessful female led series. Maybe the quality of teen/drama shows has lowered and It just seems that the CW audience prefers "genre" shows nowadays, hence the success of The Flash, Arrow, Supernatural etc. Not necessarily because they are male led but about the type of show that the audience is currently in love with. So Supergirl is  a good idea and addition for the CW, they are lacking in female led shows that are sucessful lately and SG fits in with the genre the CW audience is interested in.

And when they embraced comic/superhero shows on the network, they attracted more of the male audience and older viewers. Superhero shows appeal to a wider demography and all sexes, hence why they are currently the most popular on the CW. Its always been obvious since the Smallville days but back then the former CW president didnt see the opportunites this genre presented. They didnt see Smallville as a superhero/sci fi show but a teen drama show, and wrongly attributed its success to only that. They are a few more female superheroes/characters in DC lore that CW could try in the near future  and have sucess, if they so wish to make another comic show. 

The most important things is not to only one genre or another but to have a balance, and be able to read what your audience prefers at the time and adapt to it. JMO. Even though I dont care for them there is still an audience on CW that cares for non fantasy drama shows, comedies, sitcoms etc.

 

Quote

But it's not competing against Crazy Ex Girlfriend this year, so there's that, at least....

I would have been happy if Supergirl wasnt competing against Gotham, another DCTV show. 

Quote

 #1 is also possible, but I'm not getting my hopes up; I think the change of networks will cause a significant drop.

Wouldnt that be something!, the only thing that  stop me thinking that it does have a shot at  #1 is the timeslot. Monday & Thursday seem the toughest, especially for a CW show. Otherwise the quality of the first season was overall good IMO, and I can only see the show getting even better. The potential to be the top CW series is there, but other factors that are beyond show control will determine its position.

Im very curious about Legends of Tomorrow's ratings too, now that the show has got a fall premiere date, could get a small bump.

Edited September 5, 2016 by HeroWorld

[FurryFury]

13 hours ago, stealinghome said:

I think I read somewhere that the CW is up for review as a network this year, and having lots of long-running shows makes it look better, so they didn't want to ax ANYTHING this year. Even shows that by rights should have been.

Well, and JtV/CEG are somewhat helped by critical acclaim and awards.

I agree that we are seeing a soft reboot of Supergirl on the CW.

They were "up for review" last year - there was a possibility that their deal with Tribune wouldn't work out - but I'm not sure if the deal happened before or after they've renewed all their shows. I suspect them avoiding canceling their stuff has more to do with streaming deals, especially Netflix, which seems to be quite important for them. And I'm not complaining. CEG is probably the best new show I've seen last season, and nobody else would give it a chance, both at first and after getting bad ratings. (OTOH they have stuff like TVD, The Originals, Reign and Beauty and the Beast, but I suspect it has more to do with either their CBS deal or/and the legacy of Dawn Ostroff - and they're all either over or close to final seasons). 

As for "soft reboot", LoT will get one as well - the producers are open about them not being satisfied with the show's performance and quality last year (and they're right, it was pretty inconsistent, even if I probably enjoyed it the most of all DC TV stuff) and it's going to get a retool of some kind, with three of the worst characters of last season gone, getting popular villains from Arrow/The Flash as new antagonists, and the heroes now being basically time cops.

Edited September 5, 2016 by FurryFury

[Kendra]

12 hours ago, MarkHB said:

Just curious: what do you mean by "CBS-ness"?

JMO but I mean geared more toward an older audience. Has more of a procedural aspect

 I remember Mehcad saying at comic con that the scripts they have read for this season already feel more relevant and youthful. 

[MarkHB]

1 minute ago, Kendra said:

JMO but I mean geared more toward an older audience. Has more of a procedural aspect

 I remember Mehcad saying at comic con that the scripts they have read for this season already feel more relevant and youthful. 

Cool, thanks.  I probably don't notice it as much since I grew up watching TV in the world of "no continuing drama; it's bad for syndication."

[quarks]

On 9/4/2016 at 0:15 PM, Kendra said:

 

CW ratings last year ended with:

Flash- 1.34, Arrow - 0.94, LoT - 0.8, Supernatural - 0.7, iZombi- 0.53, and then everything else was below a 0.5. How some managed to avoid cancellation, even for being on the CW, is a bit surprising to me. 

CBS financial reports state that most of the revenue for CW shows comes in from post-views - aka, international broadcast licenses, the Netflix licenses, and DVD/Blu-Ray sales. Plus their shows tend to be fairly low budget, so apparently the post-view revenue is enough to get even the very low rated shows (hi, Reign!) renewed.

[Kromm]

On 9/7/2016 at 4:26 PM, quarks said:

CBS financial reports state that most of the revenue for CW shows comes in from post-views - aka, international broadcast licenses, the Netflix licenses, and DVD/Blu-Ray sales. Plus their shows tend to be fairly low budget, so apparently the post-view revenue is enough to get even the very low rated shows (hi, Reign!) renewed.

I dunno. I'd like to see numbers, because while Canada does save a bunch of money, and the FX are hardly revolutionary, there are ENOUGH special effects, and eventually salary demands (mainly for the shows that get a lot of Geekattention), that CW shows can't be THAT cheap.

And Melissa is still likely under the same contract as before, with a CBS-sized pay scale (as well as having come in to the role with 42 episodes in her back pocket on a hit show on Fox). While I'm sure she's locked in for several years, I bet her base was higher than some of these CW people's initial bases were. SG may have to earn more than most CW shows... I mean can you possibly imagine Reign costing even a quarter as much to make (Flash is going to be the only show with a likely bigger FX budget than Supergirl, since more characters have superpowers, even if it's salaries are probably on better lockdown).

[quarks]

1 hour ago, Kromm said:

I dunno. I'd like to see numbers, because while Canada does save a bunch of money, and the FX are hardly revolutionary, there are ENOUGH special effects, and eventually salary demands (mainly for the shows that get a lot of Geekattention), that CW shows can't be THAT cheap.

And Melissa is still likely under the same contract as before, with a CBS-sized pay scale (as well as having come in to the role with 42 episodes in her back pocket on a hit show on Fox). While I'm sure she's locked in for several years, I bet her base was higher than some of these CW people's initial bases were. SG may have to earn more than most CW shows... I mean can you possibly imagine Reign costing even a quarter as much to make (Flash is going to be the only show with a likely bigger FX budget than Supergirl, since more characters have superpowers, even if it's salaries are probably on better lockdown).

Unfortunately I don't have specific numbers for any of the CW shows, just general statements from CBS financial reports.

My guess is, though, that you're probably right - between special effects and salaries, Supergirl will be the CW's most expensive show this season, followed by Legends of Tomorrow and Flash, and certainly a lot more than Reign. With that said, Supergirl can also pull in ancillary revenue (merchandise) that Reign can't, and presumably is pulling in at least some post-view revenue, so those might be factors too.

My other guess is that Berlanti is going to be trying to pull the same stunts that he's been doing with Arrow, Flash and Legends of Tomorrow - sharing sets and location shots and day extras - to save money on Supergirl. I'm just hoping that Kara doesn't end up in too many warehouses or realizing that everyone she knows lives in Diggle's apartment. It's a faint hope, but I'm clinging to it.

[CabotCove]

Eh if I was running a show business too I would look at all revenue streams not just ad revenues, it just makes sense especially today. Plenty of shows have been prematurely cancelled just because there were not making much money in ad revenue but were a success internationally, its good that CW has wised up to this. Other networks will have to change  their expectations to survive the current climate of TV viewership. 

Edited September 10, 2016 by DCLeague

[MarkHB]

10 hours ago, DCLeague said:

Plenty of shows have been prematurely cancelled just because there were not making much money in ad revenue but were a success internationally

That goes back to the historic division between the producers and networks, though. If an ABC- produced show on CBS is making a killing overseas but not doing well in the US, CBS is going to cancel it because they are literally not seeing a single penny from that overseas money; that all belongs to ABC, and it's irrelevant to CBS. That's why more networks are concentrating on shows they produce, so they can get more of the overseas and back-end revenue. The downside is that third party producers ( Steven Bochco, the late Stephen J. Cannell, etc.) have very little room to get on the air, particularly in broadcast.

[CabotCove]

Quote

That goes back to the historic division between the producers and networks, though. If an ABC- produced show on CBS is making a killing overseas but not doing well in the US, CBS is going to cancel it because they are literally not seeing a single penny from that overseas money; that all belongs to ABC, and it's irrelevant to CBS. That's why more networks are concentrating on shows they produce, so they can get more of the overseas and back-end revenue. 

Interesting info, certainly makes sense why there were so many premature cancellations in the past and the shift thats occurring now.

[BkWurm1]

On ‎8‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 0:44 PM, Trini said:

Season 2 is 22 episodes.

Was this ever confirmed? I know Flash and Arrow were also initially said to have 22 when actually it was 23.

[MarkHB]

Well, it was the programming head for The CW who said it, so I don't know what else we can expect :)

[BaggythePanther]

19 hours ago, BkWurm1 said:

Was this ever confirmed? I know Flash and Arrow were also initially said to have 22 when actually it was 23.

The article you quoted says Supergirl will have 23 episodes this season. If I remember correctly, Mark Pedowitz said Supergirl, The Flash and Arrow would have a 'full season'. Reporters just assumed that meant 22 episodes. Never assume :)

[BkWurm1]

Yeah but the article also insists that Arrow and Flash only have 22, lol, and I know that's not true.  From what I've heard recently, Supergirl is not on the same filming schedule as Arrow and Flash. arrow is filming it's 7th episode of the season while Supergirl is on its 5th.  I know they were behind because of all the sets that had to be rebuilt and Supergirl is more expensive. Maybe having the fewer episode count is reasonable. 

[stealinghome]

fwiw, I'm pretty sure David Harewood said on twitter a while back that Supergirl has 22 this season.

[quarks]

It's possible that both Supergirl and Legends of Tomorrow also started filming a bit later because they start a week after Arrow and Flash do.

[Perfect Xero]

A word of warning for people who watch the show via DVR:

If you set up a series recording on your DVR last season, the change of networks could mess that up and cause it not to record the new episodes. The first episode was not set to record on my Xfinity DVR in spite of having previously set a series recording. I had to go in, delete the existing series recording from last season, and then set a new series recording to get it to recognize the new channel.

[stealinghome]

Supergirl pulled in the second-highest ad rates for the CW, behind only The Flash. They're both WAY ahead of Arrow at #3.

I hope the show can pull the ratings the CW expects.

[Artsda]

Canada: Season 2 premieres October 10 at 8 ET, on Showcase. 

Global moved it over to Showcase. 

[secnarf]

4 minutes ago, Artsda said:

Canada: Season 2 premieres October 10 at 8 ET, on Showcase. 

Global moved it over to Showcase. 

I saw that on my TV guide and it kind of surprised me - doesn't sound like much of a vote of confidence.

[stealinghome]

Arrow premiered to a 0.7 last night. If that is going to be its ballpark this season, I think/hope Supergirl should be able to take the network's #2 slot over it. I mean, if Supegirl is in the 0.6 range on the season, I think that is REALLY not a good sign.

[Trini]

It's just really hard to judge how the network change will affect things. The main difference in competition this season is that it will be up against powerhouse Big Bang Theory.

Edited October 6, 2016 by Trini

[stealinghome]

Only for a few weeks though, right, before CBS loses TNF and BBT moves back to Thursdays?

[Perfect Xero]

11 minutes ago, stealinghome said:

Only for a few weeks though, right, before CBS loses TNF and BBT moves back to Thursdays?

Yes, the last CBS TNF games is October 20. Kevin Can Wait moves to Monday at 8:00 on October 24 with Man With A Plan taking Kevin's 8:30 slot. Big Bang then makes its Thursday premier on October 27.

So Supergirl is only going up against Big Bang for 2 weeks.

[The Crazed Spruce]

The Cancel Bear has officially passed judgement on the show.

[Kendra]

Ratings were very solid for last night's episode with a 1.1

Fell right where many expected it to--between Flash and Arrow. 

[stealinghome]

Very solid start! That gives it a little breathing room, and as word of mouth has been so positive, hopefully it retains most of that next week.

[CabotCove]

Good news, hope it can grow a tenth or 2 with crossovers and word of mouth.

Edited October 11, 2016 by DCLeague

[MarkHB]

I have to wonder how many more fans from CBS would have followed it over if they knew where it was.  Unfortunately, if you aren't in a market big enough to warrant outdoor advertising for TV shows (or if you're in a state that prohibits billboards), it can be hard to get that message out.

[BaggythePanther]

Preliminary numbers for last night's ratings of The Flash are a 1.0. So right now (pending adjustments) Supergirl will probably be the CW's top rated show of the week. 

[FurryFury]

I'm so feeling schadenfreude right now re: The Flash...

[BaggythePanther]

The Flash adjusted up to a 1.1, so they're tied. I was really hoping Supergirl would get to keep the top spot.