S30.E11: Survivor Russian Roulette

[peachmangosteen]

But it's just a pet peeve that's boiling over.

 

I can certainly understand that! I was about to rip my hair out over 'playing the victim.' 

[Alapaki]

I'll take a shot at defending the strategic play this season.

 

"Strategic Gameplay" does not mean only "making a move" or "shaking things up", although those are the most interesting types of gameplay and the most entertaining to watch.

 

When it's a deliberate choice, "standing pat because I'm in a good place" can be a legitimate form of gameplay.  It just isn't as fun to watch.

 

I think that's what we've seen from Tyler and Carolyn.  Right from the merge, they had a F4 deal dropped in their lap by Rodney, which it has been in Rodney's best interest to preserve.  So they've had no reason to shake things up.  I think that has been the right decision, so far.

 

Dan and Sierra are apparently standing pat, so far, as a strategy.  We know that's probably not been the right decision.  But it still was a decision.  

 

And I do think there have been some big strategic plays so far that have just gotten a little drowned out by the asshole-ishness of so many of the players.

 

Rodney's move to form a secret alliance with Carolyn/Tyler/Will was, imo, a huge move.  Having a secret sub-alliance while still being part of a larger alliance is an optimal play.  But, until it's time for that secret alliance to reveal itself, it's a fairly boring strategy to watch.

 

Jenn's HII play was huge.  It cancelled out 7 votes.  It eliminated Kelly (which I think may be underestimated in terms of Sierra's game, as well as Dan's and Mike's.  

 

Mike's gambit last week was very smart.  He could've kept it in his pocket and single-handedly decided who went home next week.  But this way he's forcing the alliance of six to make that decision and therefore make their pecking-order extremely explicit, thus giving himself something to work with the following week.

 

I thing the remainder of this season actually has some promise, from a strategic perspective.  Because I think most of these players can not expect to pull positive votes at FTC (i.e. jurors wanting to give them $1 Million).  Rather, I think it's imperative for most of them to put themselves in the best position to get negative votes (i.e., jurors voting for them because they don't want to give the money to the other finalists).

[Zuleikha]

Dan and Sierra are apparently standing pat, so far, as a strategy.  We know that's probably not been the right decision.  But it still was a decision.

I will go further and say that I think it has been the right decision for Sierra. It probably was not for Dan, but I think it would only have been right for Sierra to flip if it was going to lead to a change in which alliance had the control. Otherwise, it would only risk drawing a target with no upside. I think Sierra's really been stuck because NC never was close enough in numbers for Sierra to simply jump ship, and flipping things on Rodney's suballiance required Mike and Dan to both be ready to do that, and when Mike was finally ready, Dan was adamantly not.

 

I think Sierra's problem is that she doesn't have the right kind of charisma to be able to pull anyone into changing their course of action. But no one else seems to either this season. Rodney is the closest, but he didn't exactly have a challenging pitch. Carolyn, Tyler, and Will didn't want to work with NC, so they would have had to be complete idiots to turn down a suballiance in the majority alliance, Pagonging people that they didn't like. 

[LadyChatts]

I try to keep in mind that, however dull a season may be and loosely one may define "reality TV", these are still real people looking for a million dollars.  So while it's more entertaining for me as a viewer when the obvious isn't happening, I would probably be doing the same thing if it meant getting me that much further.  Putting that in perspective, a lot of these strategies or even lack of strategies make more sense.  The only reason I see things starting to shift now is because they have to.  

 

Rodney himself said they were going to the 7 together and then he assumed his alliance would be picking the other 3 off.  So here they are at the 7, but obviously Mike's idol is one snag, and Dan's extra vote may prove another obstacle.  If his alliance holds tough, they could succeed in getting someone out on a re-vote.  I credit Rodney for playing a good game.  Jenn's move got her on the jury and prevented Kelly from sticking around.  Rodney's final 4 initially included her, but Kelly seemed closer to Mike and Carolyn wanted Tyler in in place of Kelly.  Something may have came of that if Kelly had made it.  Rodney's alliance is reminiscent of the very first 4 person alliance ever born with Richard, Sue, Kelly, and Rudy.  No one realized they were a group until it was too late.  Of course, this season is also like the old days before idols and twists, in that this is what you did back then-got into a majority alliance and prayed you weren't at the bottom once you were done taking out the minority alliance.  There have been some interesting twists, like Jenn's idol play, that kept this season interesting.  And we still have 2 idols in play on top of the extra vote advantage.  So we will see.  This close to the finale, even if things get interesting it is still an overall lackluster season for me.  The theme/tribes we started with and the luck of the draw with the swap really ruined it.  It's just the lack of interesting play, on top of having uninteresting people, that has made this a boring and terrible season, imo.  It's people that know this game maybe a little too well, which may be why there's been a lack of alliance shifting and big moves that have made seasons past more interesting.  Which is why I said, maybe a bunch of recruited contestants might have fallen for Mike's bluff or Joe's fake idol and not been 20 steps ahead of where they need to be and cause their own demise.  Everything still went according to plan for the majority, despite Jenn's idol play and Mike's bluff.  Of course Mike's bluff may have caused cracks, but we'll see what Wednesday brings.  It could just be a big 'how dare you' and then they move on.  

Edited May 3, 2015 by LadyChatts

[needschocolate]

It is true that as long as a player is looking at his/her options and deciding what to do, they have a strategy, It might be a boring one (even to them - "hey, looks like I should continue to stick with the group an do nothing exciting this time").

 

My post about why there hasn't been any strategic gameplay, should have been about why there hasn't been any interesting-to-watch gameplay. 

[Guest]

I thing the remainder of this season actually has some promise, from a strategic perspective.  Because I think most of these players can not expect to pull positive votes at FTC (i.e. jurors wanting to give them $1 Million).  Rather, I think it's imperative for most of them to put themselves in the best position to get negative votes (i.e., jurors voting for them because they don't want to give the money to the other finalists).

I hope the rest of the season is great.  Usually the post-pagonging is when it does get good.  And Jeff's high opinion of the season was based on it all, so he might love this cast based largely on what's left to happen.  God knows we have plenty of opportunity for schadenfreud, with all the jerks out there now.  

[enlightenedbum]

Only 3 can make it to FTC, so if everyone's standing pat, someone is wrong.  They've shown the majority sub-alliance so we know Sierra and Dan are those someones.  Since that sub-alliance is four people, they've already fucked up.

[Wings]

I hope the rest of the season is great.  Usually the post-pagonging is when it does get good.  And Jeff's high opinion of the season was based on it all, so he might love this cast based largely on what's left to happen.  God knows we have plenty of opportunity for schadenfreud, with all the jerks out there now.  

 

 

When Jeff gives his opinion on a season it is all said and done,  edited, in the can and time has passed.  I often have a different opinion of a season when it finishes.   Maybe that is what is going on.  I hope so.  I would love to think I will end up thinking this was better than I do now. 

[enlightenedbum]

Always remember: Jeff thinks Fiji sucked because Yau-Man is a boring character while Rocky is a great one.

 

Jeff is dumb.

[Alapaki]

Only 3 can make it to FTC, so if everyone's standing pat, someone is wrong.  They've shown the majority sub-alliance so we know Sierra and Dan are those someones.  Since that sub-alliance is four people, they've already fucked up.

 

Yes.  We know Dan and Sierra are fucked unless they make something happen (which Dan's extra vote and Mike's unHII they may be able to do).

 

I don't agree that a sub-alliance of 4, given that FTC is only F3, is a fuck up.  A F3 sub-alliance is great.  But you need more votes that that in the early-post-merge phase of the game.  A secret F4 sub-alliance, with the understanding that it's everyone-for-themselves once they get to F4, is not inherently irrational. 

 

And I don't think this particular F4 sub-alliance of Rodney/Tyler/Carolyn/Will is irrational for any of them.

 

I think Rodney, Tyler and Carolyn all want to be sitting next to Will at FTC.

 

For Tyler and Carolyn, the optimal FTC (in their minds) is probably the two of them together sitting next to Will.  They may be afraid that any BC at FTC would get votes from their original Tribemates (Kelley's early exit reduced that potential number of jurors, of course).  

 

And, for the same reason, Rodney probably wants to be the only BC sitting at FTC.

 

From Will's perspective, it's optimal because . . . . BOSCO!

 

Now, since the merge, I'd say that Dan has proven himself to be such a goat that there may be more options.  But I don't think this particular F4 alliance is misguided.

[enlightenedbum]

Sorry, I screwed up my antecedents so my statement wasn't clear.  I was just explaining why we know Dan and Sierra have screwed up.

[needschocolate]

I know Tyler (and Caroline) are sure that they are part of the final 4 and that Dan and Sierra are being strung along. 

 

Dan, and perhaps Sierra (who knows what she is thinking), believe that they are part of the final 4 and Tyler and Caroline are 5th and 6th.  After all, they are  all members of the BC and were allied with Rodney from the start, . 

 

Do we know for sure what Rodney's plan is?  Has he said in a confessional that he wants to go to the final 4 with Tyler and Caroline (along with Will)?

 

If I were Rodney (and, thank goodness, I am not) I would rather have Dan and Sierra in my final 4 (along with Will) ---

 

---- There is a fairly good chance that Tyler and Caroline would respect the game play enough to vote for Rodney, even though they may feel he stabbed them in the back.  They would certainly have more respect for Rodney's game than for Dan's or Sierra's, whom they seem to see as sheep (judging by Tyler's comments at the reward).  Conversely, Dan is too emotional and would probably be bitter and not vote to give Rodney a million if he ends up on the jury (not sure about Sierra - once again, who knows what she is thinking).

 

---- There is a very good chance of Rodney winning the final immunity challenge if he is completing against Will, Dan and Sierra.  Conversely, Tyler and Caroline may each be able to beat Rodney, and Rodney would likely be the one to be voted off at 4. 

 

--- If Rodney ends up sitting at the Final TC with Tyler he may loose.  I am of the impression that the people already on the jury would more likely vote for Tyler to win, than for Rodney, although I am not entirely sure that is true. 

 

This all assumes that Mike doesn't make it to the end.  If he does, I think has a very good chance to win. 

[ProfCrash]

Tyler and Carolyn should be smart enough to not want to go the finals together. Dan and Will should be the designated goats for everyone.

[peachmangosteen]

Do we know for sure what Rodney's plan is?  Has he said in a confessional that he wants to go to the final 4 with Tyler and Caroline (along with Will)?

 

I'm fairly sure he has. And honestly, while I do think Rodney is playing the best game right now, it is deeply stupid for him to want Tyler/Carolyn in the F3 over Dan/Sierra. But I think his ego is too big to see it.

Edited May 3, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[lilabennet]

 

Do we know for sure what Rodney's plan is?  Has he said in a confessional that he wants to go to the final 4 with Tyler and Caroline (along with Will)?

 

I don't think Rodney has explicitly stated that his final loyalty is to Tyler, Carolyn, and Will, but he did state in a confessional that Mike was correct about Mike's accusations that he had turned his back on the BC.  I took that to mean that not only did Rodney want Mike out, but Sierra and Dan would also be out at 5 and 6.

[LadyChatts]

Tyler and Carolyn should be smart enough to not want to go the finals together. Dan and Will should be the designated goats for everyone.

 

I wonder if it will click to Dan and Will that the only reason they are being kept around is because no one likes them.  I know Dan said last week that if he made the final 3 he would have done something to get there-so I guess being king jackass is something you can argue to the jury.  Or maybe he will say he was playing a character all along to get dragged along but he's really not a bad guy and never meant any of it (with Dan it's almost an adventure to hear what he'll say next).  I somehow doubt we will be seeing Tyler and Carolyn in the final 3 together, but that is a good point.  We know that they are tight, but something else I wish editing would touch on is just how close their bond is.  There was an early season of Big Brother that I remember there was a secret 2-person alliance that went to the final 4 together and no one knew that they had been working together that whole time.

 

At this point, though, I think strategy changed for everyone.  While it must have seemed like a good idea way back for Sierra to be sitting in the final 3 with any of the blue boys and cruise to victory, now the only one she could actually beat in a landslide is Dan.  At Ponderosa, Shirin doesn't seem to have a lot of love for her, and Jenn only said Mike and Shirin were the two she hoped were voted off next because she didn't want to deal with anyone else.  I don't know that they dislike her that much, but I don't believe there's a lot of appreciation for her game.  Rodney's dialed it back apparently and is more of a gamer than people realized, and Mike has earned respect out there and can use the ultimate underdog line if he makes the final 3.  I don't know what exactly Tyler and Carolyn's arguments will be.  And The Ponderosa house so far doesn't seem to like Carolyn all that much.  In hindsight, Rodney might realize it was better to drag Sierra and Dan to the final 3 and just state why he played a better game than either of them.

Edited May 3, 2015 by LadyChatts

[Wings]

I'm fairly sure he has. And honestly, while I do think Rodney is playing the best game right now, it is deeply stupid for him to want Tyler/Carolyn in the F3 over Dan/Sierra. But I think his ego is too big to see it.

 

 

Yeah, you may be right.  Never went there because I have lost my focus on strategy this season. 

Edited May 4, 2015 by wings707

[riley702]

Always remember: Jeff thinks Fiji sucked because Yau-Man is a boring character while Rocky is a great one.

Wha?!? He actually said that? I didn't think I could lose any more respect for his opinion of this game...

[Hanahope]

I feel like they really scraped the bottom of the barrel with this crew, at least the F7, they are all awful people.  Even Mike wasn't all the nice in the beginning, though at least he's gotten better.  Sierra has turned into the floor mat, she just lies there and is walked on.  The rest are people that are definitely the more "negative" votes for the mill, rather than positive votes.  Hard to root for any of them really.

[LadyChatts]

Maybe the whole "iconic" bit is that the lesser of 3 evils win.  This is one of the more uninspiring final groups of 7 I can recall.  I'm hoping something exciting happens this week.  The six will have to turn on each other, which is why I think Sierra may be targeted (is there a reason Tyler and Will voted for Dan over her?  Is Will trying to be Top Goat or something?)  But will it be as uneventful as the last few boots have been, or will it actually be edge of your seat, the person didn't see it coming.

 

Mike's behavior early on is why I can't get behind him.  And if it's true Tyler made remarks to Shirin about letting him do some of the heavy work at camp because she's a woman, then I really wonder what is going on with the editing this season.  Everyone is horrible, but they have to make at least two people rootable.  And since Sierra and Carolyn don't seem to have much going on for them, they fade into the background while Mike and Tyler appear somewhat nice-ish.  I will say that Mike may have been playing a better game than we were shown as well, so much like Rodney, I may have to give credit where credit is due.  Even though in any other season I would totally not be rooting for either guy, but this season there are few options left.  I'm actually looking forward to Wednesday, mainly for that very reason: I have no one left I care about, whoever gets voted off with be satisfying, and there at least won't be any more bullying to the degree Shirin got it.  Plus, I get to see what would have been my final 4 in the jury.

[needschocolate]

Tyler and Carolyn should be smart enough to not want to go the finals together. Dan and Will should be the designated goats for everyone.

 

I agree that Dan and Will are the ultimate goats.  I think Caroline is sortof goat-ish too, in that I think Caroline's only chance of wining is if she goes to the final with Dan and Will. However, this is solely based on people (who are now on the jury) not liking her so much that they voted for her despite there being bigger immunity threats in the game. 

 

On the other hand, Jenn (and maybe others) said that they felt Caroline is the brains or the Tyler/Caroline pair, so maybe they would give her their vote over Tyler. 

 

I guess the only thing I am sure about is that the editors/producers are trying so hard to keep the audience guessing (or to create some excitement in a rather low-key strategy-wise season) that it is difficult to have any idea where anyone stands.  If the winner is anyone but Mike, and perhaps Rodney, the audience will be left saying "Huh?"

 

I wonder if it will click to Dan and Will that the only reason they are being kept around is because no one likes them.  I know Dan said last week that if he made the final 3 he would have done something to get there-so I guess being king jackass is something you can argue to the jury.  Or maybe he will say he was playing a character all along to get dragged along but he's really not a bad guy and never meant any of it (with Dan it's almost an adventure to hear what he'll say next).  I somehow doubt we will be seeing Tyler and Carolyn in the final 3 together, but that is a good point.  We know that they are tight, but something else I wish editing would touch on is just how close their bond is.  There was an early season of Big Brother that I remember there was a secret 2-person alliance that went to the final 4 together and no one knew that they had been working together that whole time.

 

I think Tina and Colby's final 2 alliance was fairly secret - it may have been known that they were in an alliance, along with other people, but the fact that they promised to go to final 2 together was not common knowledge. I believe Colby was honoring that promise by taking Tina instead of the guy he could easily beat.  I hope someone who remembers the details better than I do will confirm/deny/elaborate....

[hyukx3]

Mike has a not so hidden Immunity Idol, so the spotlight is gonna be the people on the bottom of the 6. The bottom of the 6 would want to save themselves, especially given all the talk about Sierra and Dan's standing in the 6. So they would want to work with Mike and get his vote. Also, Dan's got the extra vote advantage. Victory for Mike.

[ProfCrash]

We have not seen much of what Carolyn has done but we know that she is liked by the remaining players in the game. So while Carolyn has to have the exact right group of people at the final tribal to get votes from Jenn, Hali, Joe, and Shirin (I am thinking Will and Dan), she could take votes from Tyler if Rodney, Sierra, Mike/ Will or Dan end up on the jury. So Tyler does not want to go with Carolyn.

 

Tyler is in a bind. I believe that he wants to go to the end with Will and either Dan or Sierra. Tyler knows that Dan has the second vote (he doesn't have to vote for the same person twice so it is not technically a vote doubler) and Tyler and Will just voted for Dan. Tyler voted for Dan because he thought Mike would vote for Dan and was worried that others would vote for him. I think Tyler is well aware that Sierra is better liked then Dan and could get some votes because she is not an asshole so Dan is preferred to Sierra in the final.

 

Tyler has to figure out a way to patch things up with Dan while making Sierra think she is not the target of the vote at the next tribal and convince the rest of the alliance that they need to vote out Sierra and not Dan. I don't think the third part is a challenge. I think Rodney, Carolyn, and Will see Dan as a goat in all his goat glory. I think the first part is tricky because Dan is paranoid and is going to freak over getting votes. He is going to have to face the fact that Hali, Jenn, Shirin, and Mike were all right and that he was at the bottom of the alliance. Except that he wasn't because I think Tyler, Carolyn, Rodney, and Will all see Dan at the final and all planned to stab other people in the back in order to bring Dan.

 

So it should be fun to watch. We will have Tyler, Will, Carolyn, and Rodney trying to sneak off to convince each other that they are really tight when all four of them know that they are lying. The only one safe to the end is Will. They will all have to work to convince Dan that he is fine while Mike is going to be going "Told you so, you got two votes." Sierra is going to be freaking out because she knows that she is fifth, and probably in her own head she gets that she is sixth because who doesn't want to bring Dan to the finals.

 

Three days of shadowing Dan and kiss Dan's paranoid ass are going to ensue. It will be awful to watch. But I suspect Sierra goes home.

[peachmangosteen]

On the other hand, Jenn (and maybe others) said that they felt Caroline is the brains or the Tyler/Caroline pair, so maybe they would give her their vote over Tyler. 

 

Oh, I'm glad to hear that Jenn saw Caroline as the brains of that pair as I have always suspected that, too.

[Eggman]

it is deeply stupid for him to want Tyler/Carolyn in the F3 over Dan/Sierra. But I think his ego is too big to see it.

 

I think Rodney is considering colors.  He's hoping that if he stacks the jury with Blues, then they'll all vote for him as the final blue standing. 

[blackwing]

I agree that things tend to get better after the post-pagonging.  But in this case, I find every single person besides Mike (and perhaps Sierra) to be reprehensible. The minute Mike goes out, I'm done.

[peachmangosteen]

I think Rodney is considering colors.  He's hoping that if he stacks the jury with Blues, then they'll all vote for him as the final blue standing. 

 

Duh! You are probably 100% right. Although at this point he can only get 3 BCs on the jury and that isn't enough to win so I go back to my original point that it's stupid for Rodney to want Tyler/Carolyn in the finals with him. Although if the F3 was him/Carolyn/Will he'd probably win and maybe that is his preferred F3. But Tyler would probably slaughter him in most comps, so he really should get Tyler out before F4.

Edited May 4, 2015 by peachmangosteen

[kikaha]

On the other hand, Jenn (and maybe others) said that they felt Caroline is the brains or the Tyler/Caroline pair, so maybe they would give her their vote over Tyler. 

 

Do you know when or where Jenn said that? 

 

I wonder how Jenn would know that, since she was never in an alliance with either one, and I'm pretty sure never in on their decision-making process.

[laurakaye]

The idea of Tyler, Carolyn, Rodney and Mike all slobbering over Dan in order to bring him to the end is just so ICKY.  Would Dan even realize that he is being brought to the end because of his goat-ness?  Because I can see him believing that it's his amazing strategic gameplay that has the other survivors fighting over him.  It's sad that dragging two of the most despicable survivors I can remember (Dan and Will) to the end to guarantee a win is the best strategy, but I guess they've got to play the cards they're dealt.

 

It will be interesting to see if Carolyn and Tyler can get in Dan's head to sway his votes, knowing he has the extra vote but not being able to coach him on how to use it.

Edited May 4, 2015 by laurakaye

[ProfCrash]

The bonus clips make it pretty darn clear that Dan does not see himself as a goat. He talks about the moves he has to make at the right time so that the jury appreciates your game. He really thinks he has a chance to win.

 

Yeah, he is pretty darn delusional

[LadyChatts]

Which will make the end all the more gratifying for viewers.  If Dan didn't realize it then, he probably does now.  Or at least felt a little sting when someone probably rubbed it into his face that that's the only reason he was kept around, because no one liked him.  I feel like last week Jeff really wanted to just slap some sense into everybody left, especially when they started applauding when Shirin got voted off.  I know some people have played really crappy social games in the past, but this season takes the cake in that department.  And, all this waiting to make moves may very well come back to bite certain people in the butt.  I know Dan got two votes, but something tells me he and Sierra still won't get it that they are on the bottom.  Tyler will probably be able to smooze things over.

Edited May 4, 2015 by LadyChatts

[laurakaye]

The bonus clips make it pretty darn clear that Dan does not see himself as a goat. He talks about the moves he has to make at the right time so that the jury appreciates your game. He really thinks he has a chance to win.

 

Yeah, he is pretty darn delusional

True story.  The scene where Mike asks Dan how he's feeling about tribal council was pretty funny upon second watching.  Mike is staring at Dan, and while Mike is in voice-over discussing how Dan wasn't the person he thought he was, the camera kept cutting to Dan running his mouth and counting something on his fingers, but we couldn't hear what Dan was saying.  Mike's glazed-over eyes said it all, though.

I feel like last week Jeff really wanted to just slap some sense into everybody left, especially when they started applauding when Shirin got voted off. 

And WHY on earth would you applaud the exit of the NEXT JURY MEMBER who is going to play a huge part in whether you win A MILLION DOLLARS?

 

These people.....

[BigRedCheese]

I think they were mostly clapping because Mike didn't play the HII, but it's hard to tell with this group of creeps, especially with Rodney making hand talking signs as Shirin walks by.

[laurakaye]

...especially with Rodney making hand talking signs as Shirin walks by.

Which Shirin possibly didn't see, but Jenn, Joe and Hali clearly did, and reacted to.

[needschocolate]

Regarding Jenn saying Caroline was the brains behind Caroline and Tyler alliance.

 

Do you know when or where Jenn said that? 

 

I wonder how Jenn would know that, since she was never in an alliance with either one, and I'm pretty sure never in on their decision-making process.

 

My memory may be wrong on this, but I thought Jenn told someone in her alliance that they should all vote for Caroline because Caroline was calling the shots.  I remember thinking to myself that I haven't sen anything that would lead me to think that Caroline has done anything but go along with everyone else.  

[lilabennet]

It doesn't really matter if Carolyn is or is not truly calling the shots in her alliance with Tyler.  All that matters is perception and if people on the jury are more willing to give her credit for moves than him, then that is great for her.

[Guest]

It seems like there is a Ponderosa video (Jenn arriving, I think?) where Jenn, Hali and Joe all three say that they expect Carolyn to win, because she's calling the shots.  Or something.  

[kikaha]

It seems like there is a Ponderosa video (Jenn arriving, I think?) where Jenn, Hali and Joe all three say that they expect Carolyn to win, because she's calling the shots.  Or something.  

Just watched Jenn's Ponderosa video.  None of them said anything at all about Carolyn.  Jenn, though, told the other two Tyler is absolutely going to win. 

[Guest]

Huh, ok, thanks.  Maybe I dreamed it.  

[Alapaki]

In terms of why Dan sees Mike as a "flipper" but not Rodney, I think this may be true:

 

Dan, and perhaps Sierra (who knows what she is thinking), believe that they are part of the final 4 and Tyler and Caroline are 5th and 6th.  After all, they are  all members of the BC and were allied with Rodney from the start, .

 

 

At this point in the game, it should be apparent to Dan that Rodney really is aligned with Caroline/Tyler/Will.  But I think there at least a 50% chance that he doesn't.  

I can't recall seeing a comment from Dan (either to others or in confessional) admitting that he and Sierra are 5-6.

 

The reasons that I think it's plausible that Dan would ignore the evidence of Rodney's alliance are:

 

1) Dan obviously thinks he's a super-strategist and has concluded that Rodney should stay with the BCs and is too arrogant to even attempt to analyze any situation from another players' point of view; and/or

 

2) Dan is so pissed at Mike for the shenanigans at the Auction that he's just blinded to anything Rodney has been doing.

[ProfCrash]

You forgot the most important reason 3) Dan knows that he would lose to Mike and he has to vote Mike out. Dan latched onto any reason to justify targeting Mike and making it appear that Mike is the one who flipped, not Dan.

[laurakaye]

There was a talking head where Dan said something along the lines of realizing that others see him as being on the bottom of his alliance, but he doesn't necessarily think that's true.  I can't remember how he justified this, but I do remember him saying it...I think it was after the cheeseburger boat ride.

Edited May 5, 2015 by laurakaye

[Alapaki]

You forgot the most important reason 3) Dan knows that he would lose to Mike and he has to vote Mike out. Dan latched onto any reason to justify targeting Mike and making it appear that Mike is the one who flipped, not Dan.

 

I agree that Dan was happy to have a pretext to target Mike.  And Mike, stupidly, gave it to him.  But I do believe that Dan honestly believes that Mike flipped.

[ProfCrash]

That would be because Dan is one of the worst players to ever play Survivor. He does not see that he is a goat. He has given no consideration to the fact that he is at the bottom of the alliance he is in. Nor does he consider the possibility the only reason he might not be at the bottom is because he is a goat and easily beaten in the final tribal. Dude thinks he is playing a great game.

 

Take for instance his managing of Shirin's jury vote. He starts off apologizing for the Will mess to Shirin. He follows that up by holding a strategy conversation where he spits many times, empties his shoe of sand, and gives off all sorts of body language that her pitch is useless but he is listening so Shirin can feel like he was approachable.

 

And he thinks he can win.

 

Hell, the man had his hometown paper write an article addressing the controversy regarding the slapping Shirin comment and that article was lukewarm at most. And I couldn't find the article on their website when I searched on Dan Foley.

 

Danlusional, 100% Danlusional.

[marys1000]

Could Dan have his own sub alliance unseen?

[Alapaki]

Danlusional, 100% Danlusional.

 

 

I agree.  I think that goes along with the way every Confessional he gives seems so pre-scripted.  I realize that most players give thought to what they say in Confessionals.  But with Dan it seems like he's been rehearsing these things in front of the mirror for years.  Same thing with his comments are TCs.

 

I don't know what it would take to pry the scales from Dan's eyes.  Getting voted out won't do it because he'll convince himself it was because he was such a threat.  Maybe it'll require him getting to FTC, having every juror literally laugh in his face rather than ask questions, and of course give him zero votes.  Unfortunately, there is no one left whose victory would really rub it in Dan's face (ala Shirin), but perhaps a Mike victory would shove Dan's "flippers. never. win." philosophy up his flabby ass.

Could Dan have his own sub alliance unseen?

 

 

I think if Dan had been working an alliance with Tyler and Carolyn (and possibly Will) we'd have seen it.  That would create suspense as to whether Tyler and Carolyn were actually double-dealing on Rodney.  Also, Tyler's Confessional during or after the reward challenge in which he basically said that Dan was out of his mind shuts the door on that possibility, imo (other than Tyler carrying Dan as a goat, of course).

[pennben]

 

Could Dan have his own sub alliance unseen?

 

Ironically, I think Dan is part of every single final three suballiance out there unknowingly!:)  As in everyone wants to sit next to him at the end.

[ProfCrash]

The reason I don't think that Dan has a sub alliance that we have not seen is that he has regularly made the comment that flippers never win. To make that statement and then flip and work with a sub alliance that includes Will, Tyler, and Carolyn to get out the other Blue Collars (Dan's first alliance) would be either brilliant game play or suicidal game play. I don't think Dan is smart enough to pull of the "I convinced others to stay with the alliance by arguing that flippers never win and mentioning it at every tribal and in all of my conversations with Sierra but I planned to flip all along and wanted to hide my sub alliance."

 

I think that Dan was Blue Collar strong all the way. I think that Dan thinks that the final three was going to be Rodney, Sierra, and Dan. I think Dan thinks he can beat Rodney because Rodney has let his temper show and has made some pretty dumb comments to the women. I don't think that Dan thinks he has played a bad social game. His few comments on Facebook and in Twitter point to the fact that Shirin was universally disliked so his comments directed towards her and his bad behavior directed towards her is really her fault (I guess). I don't think that he realizes that he pissed off Sierra as badly as he did or that he is seen as a pawn/goat by so many people.

[Jersey Guy 87]

The reason I don't think that Dan has a sub alliance that we have not seen is that he has regularly made the comment that flippers never win. To make that statement and then flip and work with a sub alliance that includes Will, Tyler, and Carolyn to get out the other Blue Collars (Dan's first alliance) would be either brilliant game play or suicidal game play. I don't think Dan is smart enough to pull of the "I convinced others to stay with the alliance by arguing that flippers never win and mentioning it at every tribal and in all of my conversations with Sierra but I planned to flip all along and wanted to hide my sub alliance."

 

For people as delusional about their own game play as Dan saying "flippers never win" while planning on flipping isn't a contradiction - it's good, justified game play.  Similar to the way Ben Wade would talk about honor and integrity while lying to people.  Or being a dragon slayer while failing in challenges.

 

That said, I don't think Dan has a secret sub-alliance with Carolyn, Tyler and Will.  He believes he's in the real final four because 'Murica and all that.

[Calamity Jane]

As much as I dislike the remaining players, I have to say that I am kind of on the edge of my seat to see what will happen these next few weeks. I thought I would lose interest once the more likable people were voted out, but now I'm watching to see who will go splat the hardest, and sadly, that's kinda fun.