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Ratings, Scheduling, and Watching for Cancellation/Renewal


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See, I'm like YEAH! That's great because I watch a handful of CW shows, and that rating keeps many a CW show on-air.  I think The CW looks at SM and streaming for its renewal decisions too. Maybe Fox will factor that before making a decision. 

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Fox is on record as stating they look at the DVR numbers as well as traditional ratings to make renewal decisions. There are a lot of other factors that go into it, all of which revolve around a single question: "Will we make enough money investing in this show for another year that it's worth sticking with as opposed to taking the risk on a new show instead?"

Basically we're all hoping this show generates enough income that Fox is willing to hold off on a series to replace it for at least another year. There's really no way to predict that - not to mention the politics and even random chance that could muck up what would otherwise be a perfectly logical financial decision. Doesn't matter if the show generates 90% for Fox's income; if Tom Mison is killed in a bus accident tomorrow (God forbid!), there's no Sleepy Hollow left.

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There are a lot of other factors that go into it, all of which revolve around a single question: "Will we make enough money investing in this show for another year that it's worth sticking with as opposed to taking the risk on a new show instead?".

 

This where I disagree with TV Grim "Neisens are the ONLY thing tha matter" Reaper.  It's all about the Benjamins (and Georges, and Abrahams, and Elizabeth Phoebes, and...).

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(edited)

I knew the numbers would fall after that ill-timed Abbie/I Don't Give a Damn Daniel kiss. I expect the finale's early numbers to be even lower because it follows the Why the Hell Is She Still Here? Betsy in the Catacombs episode. The finale, however, has a chance of adjusting up "if" word of mouth is good.

Edited by MissAlmond
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This where I disagree with TV Grim "Neisens are the ONLY thing tha matter" Reaper.  It's all about the Benjamins (and Georges, and Abrahams, and Elizabeth Phoebes, and...).

Fox specifically said last year that they are not going to base their decisions on Nielsen ratings anymore and they don't care at all about Nielsen ratings!

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Fox specifically said last year that they are not going to base their decisions on Nielsen ratings anymore and they don't care at all about Nielsen ratings!

 

What they said and what they actually do are two completely separate things. They are going to look at everything. Cost of production (including crew/cast salaries), existing actor contracts (if they expire), ad revenues, overseas numbers, Georgia filming tax incentives, expected syndication returns, pilot reviews/costs, status of their other currently airing shows, etc etc. Nielsen is one small piece of the puzzle but it will be considered - just not as heavily weighted anymore.

 

FOX already knows if they will renewal SH or not - it's just a matter of announcing it.

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Fox specifically said last year that they are not going to base their decisions on Nielsen ratings anymore and they don't care at all about Nielsen ratings!

No, that is not what FOX said last year. They are no longer looking at the live same day ratings. Nielsen ratings are still relevant in other ways. This article mentions that they still use the C7 ratings for determining ad prices.

 

http://variety.com/2015/tv/news/fox-same-day-ratings-releases-1201645716/

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Fox specifically said last year that they are not going to base their decisions on Nielsen ratings anymore and they don't care at all about Nielsen ratings!

In addition to what HalcyonDays and orza said, they also backed out of that statement when the ratings for the first episode of the X-Files reboot came out.

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In addition to what HalcyonDays and orza said, they also backed out of that statement when the ratings for the first episode of the X-Files reboot came out.

 

Go figure, considering how well the X-Files did...

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You know - C&C should have just bit the bullet and done a S3 premiere showing Abbie and Ichabod waking up in bed together in a flash forward. Or a mid-season premiere of that and then showing a "5 months earlier"... and then shown us what led up to it.

I don't think we'll get a 4th season for them to figure Ichabbie out. So stupid. They should have started teasing the two of them hard and actually showing real progress toward it happening. Now we're just gonna be stuck with this mess of a season and nothing to show for it. Such a shame.

I hate Goffman even more for killing my show and I hate Fox for dropping the advertising ball on it after S1 ended.

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From one of the writers...

 

Joe Webb ‏@JoeWebb13 9h9 hours ago

Joe Webb Retweeted Esha Singh

Season 4? You guys will know as soon as we do. The deadline is May 16 - Fox upfronts. Fingers crossed. #SleepyHollow

 

As I mentioned, I truly believe they do know, but they can't say anything until FOX announces it May 16th.

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Well, hopefully that is true. Because if they leave the show on a hard cliffhanger, that would mean that they're pretty confident they're returning. If the season finale could work as a series finale, on the other hand, then they're not sure.

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Well, hopefully that is true. Because if they leave the show on a hard cliffhanger, that would mean that they're pretty confident they're returning. If the season finale could work as a series finale, on the other hand, then they're not sure.

Not necessarily, though.  I remember a show called Now and Again, with Eric Close, Margaret Colin, and Dennis Haysbert, which ended with the Close and Colin characters fleeing the government, and then it was abruptly cancelled and the viewer never found out if they got away safely.  Also, a remake of The Fugitive with Tim Daly ended its first season with a mystery gunshot and was not renewed for a second season.  That is beyond frustrating for the viewer, but it happens.  I sure hope it doesn't happen with Sleepy Hollow.

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Not necessarily, though.  I remember a show called Now and Again, with Eric Close, Margaret Colin, and Dennis Haysbert, which ended with the Close and Colin characters fleeing the government, and then it was abruptly cancelled and the viewer never found out if they got away safely.  Also, a remake of The Fugitive with Tim Daly ended its first season with a mystery gunshot and was not renewed for a second season.  That is beyond frustrating for the viewer, but it happens.  I sure hope it doesn't happen with Sleepy Hollow.

And it happened with Veronica Mars. But fans later got a movie to help us wrap up the story. 

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(edited)

You're both correct; I didn't explain myself adequately. I meant that *if* HalcyonDays was correct in that the Sleepy Hollow PTB already know whether they're renewed or cancelled and are just waiting for the official announcements, then the way they end this season could be a clue. So if they end on a hard cliffhanger, we could postulate the they're well aware they're renewed.

But they certainly could be gambling instead, and they could certainly lose.

HalcyonDays, what gave you a feeling that they already know which it is? Just interested in your thought processes.

Edited by Miss Dee
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(edited)

You're both correct; I didn't explain myself adequately. I meant that *if* HalcyonDays was correct in that the Sleepy Hollow PTB already know whether they're renewed or cancelled and are just waiting for the official announcements, then the way they end this season could be a clue. So if they end on a hard cliffhanger, we could postulate the they're well aware they're renewed.

But they certainly could be gambling instead, and they could certainly lose.

HalcyonDays, what gave you a feeling that they already know which it is? Just interested in your thought processes.

 

I can't answer for HalcyonDays, but I'm fascinated by the business of show. When Mike & Molly was cancelled and Melissa McCarthy said she was "shocked" insiders on Deadline asked why since she knew.  Another insider replied, McCarthy meant she was shocked when she first heard, not shocked when CBS made it official.  They stated it was SOP that the Big Four* usually inform their showrunner the fate of their show but they keep their mouths shut until the network makes the announcement.   Why wouldn't the same hold true for FOX and Sleepy Hollow? So until FOX says officially SH is cancelled or renewed, TPTB at Sleepy Hollow "no nothing." 

 

*This is for the Big Four -  ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC  -only; things are probably different for cable networks.

Edited by MissAlmond
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HalcyonDays, what gave you a feeling that they already know which it is? Just interested in your thought processes.

 

MissAlmond just gave an awesome example of when showrunners and stars know about it. Didn't know that about Mike and Molly, but not surprised.

 

As for me, my thought processes involved just how most businesses may run and also some history for SH.

 

Firstly, there are so many things that a network has to consider, in terms of budgeting and contract negotiations.  First, the obvious actor contracts. Most likely Mison and Beharie (and LG, etc) are in standard 5-year contracts. But is there an option that can kick in season 4? These things needs to be negotiated and figure into budget numbers. Same with the crew, directors, etc. All of these people need to be around for filming and cost a certain amount. FOX needs to know those costs up front. Then filming locations - do they have a one year lease in the building where their sets are? What about equipment leases? Some may be already determined longer term contracts, but then FOX - if they have to break these - would consider what are those costs? Or do they need to be renegotiated, which factor into the cost. Ad revenue is another very important factor. FOX isn't going to wait till the last minute in hopes that ad companies will give them higher ad revenue. SH has been bang on consistent in ratings up till week 15. FOX wants to determine ad revenue when ratings are good to determine how much money they will get. This is where the ratings come into play. This takes time and negotiating. Then they have to look at filming tax incentives for the State of Georgia. What do they get this year, how will this benefit the budget. Then things like HULU broadcast deals, revenue from foreign markets, syndication deals, etc all have to be considered. SH just needs 15 episodes to hit that syndication sweetspot, compared to the other shows, so it has that a bit in it's favour. Also, who owns the show? It makes a difference. FOX owns SH, which is a benefit because all profit goes straight to FOX, not a third-party.

 

All these numbers are crunched to figure out how much the show will cost in a season, and how much it will revenue it will earn, and what profit - if any - it will get.

 

SH isn't the only show FOX is doing this with right. Second Chance, Lucifer, The Grinder, Grandfathered, The Guide to Surviving Life and Bordertown are all shows that also need a decision made at this time. That means if any of the above are being considered, it also takes time to do the above. However, most of these shows are mostly likely gone. Bones and Bordertown are in the danger zone, and SH is closest to that danger zone. Bones is renewed (shortened season), but only because it's been on so long and syndication reasons. However at the same time they will look at their profitable shows and decide if SH can survive one more season, maybe take a small loss (made up by other shows) and go from there. They may also decide to take SH budget and apply it to The X-Files, for example. It's all a numbers-crunching game.

 

Also, none of these cast and crew (especially the high up ones) and going to want to sit around collecting unemployment hoping to get a renewal. They want to be looking for a new job.

 

The show ends April 8th. There is no way that FOX can do all of the above in one month, to be ready to announce at the upfronts.

 

Now for some history. Last year, the day FOX announced Goffman was gone, and Cliff Campbell was showrunner was literally the same week. Same day I think. Cliff tweeted he was "back in the saddle" the same day FOX announced renewal. FOX sure as heck didn't call CC that day and ask him to be showrunner and he readily agreed. CC and HR have to sit down and discuss his contract and get him to sign it, all while they are interviewing other potential showrunners. Why would you look for a showrunner, if you don't even know if the show is renewed/cancelled? It's also why around the same time that ABC announced Goffman would have a multiple show deal there. Again, Goffman knew he needed to look for another job probably by December. He also had to find a spot, do multiple interviews and negotiate the contract, sign the paperwork etc etc.

 

Lesser reasons - Beharie tweeting she didn't have to learn anymore lines. Mison chopping his hair. Most telling - Joe killed off. He should have been kept for season 4. Shernold Edwards is onto a new job already.

 

Also, actors and showrunners are experts at lying about things. First, Zach Appelman stating he knew he was to be killed of this year all along. He could be lying, but I am sure he knew it. Notice that never was hinted at by any cast until he was killed off.

 

Same with Mison - he was asked this year about doing stuff in the off-season. He claimed he was contractally not allowed. I don't believe it. After the end of season 1, he was asked the same thing. His reply? He said he'd love to do some theatre maybe, but was too exhausted and just wanted time off. Which one is correct? I would expect the actors unions to push the networks to allow them (TV actors in general) to film stuff in the off-season. As long as the network approved the project, and it didn't interfere with SH filming there is no reason he - nor Beharie - couldn't do some extra work. Also, Lyndie Greenwood DID three guest roles between 2014 and 2016. If she's allowed, so would Mison and Beharie.

 

They know, they are just not allowed to say it. MissAlmond gives an excellent example of another show where that exact same thing happened. Hope this gives you an idea of why I think what I do and that it makes sense.

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Lesser reasons - Beharie tweeting she didn't have to learn anymore lines.Mison chopping his hair. Most telling - Joe killed off. He should have been kept for season 4. Shernold Edwards is onto a new job already.

Interesting. When was this? I think I did see somewhere that she was doing a play off Broadway in New York.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the show got renewed but Beharie doesn't return. It doesn't seem like she has the best relationship with TPTB. Even her and TM don't seem as close as they used to be. But I digress, if she wasn't returning that would certainly explain the introduction of Sophie.

Anyway, great break down of why you think they already know whether it's renewed. I agree. They know. As you said there's no way they'll wait until the last second to make such a major decision. Like any business the decision was/is probably made 1-2 before the upfronts.

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You know - C&C should have just bit the bullet and done a S3 premiere showing Abbie and Ichabod waking up in bed together in a flash forward. Or a mid-season premiere of that and then showing a "5 months earlier"... and then shown us what led up to it.

I don't think we'll get a 4th season for them to figure Ichabbie out. So stupid. They should have started teasing the two of them hard and actually showing real progress toward it happening. Now we're just gonna be stuck with this mess of a season and nothing to show for it. Such a shame.

I hate Goffman even more for killing my show and I hate Fox for dropping the advertising ball on it after S1 ended.

 I think there has been a certain amount of complacency  for large parts of the season. I understand they wanted to start with a clean slate after Season 2, but they didn't have much of a sense of urgency or seem to appreciate that they had to draw back in fans who had left the show. To give us a lot of Betsy Ross and Zoe early on was a big mistake, and when it seemed like they were finally course correcting they have thrown in more delaying tactics as if people would be looking forward to hoping for Ichabbie for another whole season.

 

As you said it would  have been correct to just go for it. Even if the weren't completely sure how to write it, the alternative of teasing but avoiding the relationship was not going to make many people happy especially for a show that needed a boost.  They were planning for a long game when it is quite possible this will be the last season and they won't have time to see it come to fruition. It is a shame because we might end up looking back on Sleepy Hollow on "what could have been" for many reasons(Goffman being the biggest).

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So basically you think the show is cancelled? That's depressing. *sigh*

 

I'm wavering. My logical side is saying no while my hopeful optimistic side is saying yes. There is an argument for both TBH, but the logical is stronger. Makes me sad too, but you never know. Galavant was renewed by ABC even though low ratings (much lower than SH is now), and Forever was cancelled even though it was doing good. Both had other business reasons for the decision.

 

There are a lot of pros for renewal:

 

SH is 15 episodes away from syndication - FOX's other low-rated shows are all in the first year. FOX owns SH, which is a strong postive factor. They get Georgia filming tax incentives and have already spend the money to build the sets. Lucifer is dropping much more rapidly than expected (damn, I love that show), though both Lucifer and SH have good Live+7 DVR numbers. SH rises up to a 1.3-ish, aobut 4.6 million viewers. However, Lucifer bumps up to a 2.0-ish with ~6 million viewers. SH is on a Friday and doing fairly decent. SH apparently does really well overseas/in foreign markets. FOX has several pilots on the go, but who knows how many will survive. American Idol is finally done, so that is a lot of airtime that FOX needs to fill.

 

And finally, because I think Campbell knew well in advance, I think that suddenly, he says there are cliffhangers boads well. I think he would have cut certain story lines to ensure proper closure of the show. His "I'm crossing my fingers, we'll know as soon as you know" BS is what it is to me - BS. The fact that certain storylines will be left open makes me do a double-take.

 

I could (okay wish) see a 15-episode final season to allow syndication for the foreign markets.

Beharie tweeting she didn't have to learn anymore lines.

Interesting. When was this?

 

A few weeks ago, when filming wrapped. She tweeted it out, got some panicky responses then quickly clarified "for the season". Tweets gone now though. I couldn't find it.

 

ETA: Sorry, tumblr, not twitter. Tehateki got the post correct.

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Okay, so she could have meant "for the season" all along. And Tom might have cut his hair figuring it would grow back and they're not going to fire him if it doesn't, so screw it. And the writer leaving might just be normal career proceedings.

Okay, I feel better! /denial

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Nicole's comment about learning lines was on Instagram, not Twitter. She posted a silly video and wrote:  "It's a wrap on Sleepy Hollow!!! No more lines to learn, or run or carry!!! Love ya'll"

 

I wouldn't read a lot into it beyond celebrating a wrap on the season--she's an actor, and there will always be more lines to learn, whether on SH or not. (The video also sneakily included a spoiler for 3x15.)

 

Given the extent to which Campbell was screwed over by A&E cancelling The Glades suddenly and on a cliffhanger, I'd imagine he would attempt to demand at least a tentative answer on renewal from Fox prior to production wrapping. That said, it is possible that a final final decision on renewal has not yet been made, but a tentative one has been communicated.

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Okay, so she could have meant "for the season" all along. And Tom might have cut his hair figuring it would grow back and they're not going to fire him if it doesn't, so screw it. And the writer leaving might just be normal career proceedings.

Okay, I feel better! /denial

 

To be honest, I'm more worried about Mison's hair : ) How short is it now, any pictures?

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(edited)

Just in on Deadline.com "Lucifer and Rosewood" were just renewed: http://deadline.com/2016/04/lucifer-rosewood-renewed-season-2-fox-sleepy-hollow-grandfathered-the-grinder-new-girl-1201733778/

This paragraph was included but I don't suggest anyone start jumping the gun, spreading renewal news and popping the cork. It's speculation and until FOX says one way or the other, that's all it is. Only FOX holds the answer.

Of the rest, comedy New Girl had been in talks for a renewal, possibly for two seasons, and drama Sleepy Hollow is very much in contention. Both are owned by Fox

. Edited by MissAlmond
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Thrilled about Lucifer! yes. At least one hot Brit can be on my TV next season.

 

I wouldn't count out SH just yet. American Idol is done - that means lots of airtime FOX needs to fill. Bones is a very short season. Most of the other shows not renewed yet (like Second Chance) are done, so you never know...

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I think they're waiting to make the final decision until the finale airs tomorrow. I would feel more optimistic if they hadn't just renewed Lucifer. Plus, the last couple episodes have felt very final to me. 

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From The Hollywood Reporter on Fox renewals:

 

"Sources tell THR that talks are underway to bring back Sleepy Hollow."

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/lucifer-rosewood-renewed-second-seasons-881854

 

mbjD3.gif

 

Talks are good....talks are very good...(I still think they know). Basically, the final episode will make them decide whether to pull the trigger or not. If SH was truly done, they wouldn't bother with reporting about "talks".

 

I think they're waiting to make the final decision until the finale airs tomorrow. I would feel more optimistic if they hadn't just renewed Lucifer. Plus, the last couple episodes have felt very final to me. 

 

That's why everyone needs to watch the finale to boost those final numbers, tipping their hand in OUR favour.

 

LOL Tom Mison is one snarky little shit LOL

 

One of the reasons I love him.

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FOX already knows what the audience for the show is and what a season costs. They don't need to calculate anything or study any more Nielsen ratings. Whatever numbers the finale has won't change the season average. They are iffy about the show and are waiting until they have evaluated all of the pilots they ordered to see which ones they want to move forward with and whether then there is still a place left in the schedule for SH.

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They are iffy about the show and are waiting until they have evaluated all of the pilots they ordered to see which ones they want to move forward with and whether then there is still a place left in the schedule for SH.

 

FOX apparently is moving forward with 4 out of 5 of their pilots. Read that somewhere (forget where).

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I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the show got renewed but Beharie doesn't return. It doesn't seem like she has the best relationship with TPTB. Even her and TM don't seem as close as they used to be.

Not trying to be salty or anything, but I am curious. What makes you say any this? Do you have some factual information to support your comments or is it just your opinion?

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Not trying to be salty or anything, but I am curious. What makes you say any this? Do you have some factual information to support your comments or is it just your opinion?

There was the incident last year where she was not invited to do commentary on the S2 DVD. It's my understanding that it was only after she went to Twitter to make this known that she was then invited to participate. Granted this was more of Goffman's ish, but I would've thought FOX would've nipped that in the bud before it escalated to social media, but they didn't.

Then there was the incident the other week where NB put SH on blast for not following her on Twitter. Both incidents could be harmless but they do give me pause and the impression that things might not be all roses behind the scenes.

With regards to her relationship with TM. They just don't interact like they used to. They seemed extremely close when doing interviews together for S1, but now though they still appear friendly with one another they just don't seem as close. This could be in part because TM is married now so they can't be hanging all over each other.

Again, these are just my opinions and observations based on what I've seen and read.

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Go figure, considering how well the X-Files did...

 

Yeah, I don't think anyone was surprised -- it was just so hypocritical of them.  If they had waited until X-Files came out, it would have gone down better.

 

 

Why would you look for a showrunner, if you don't even know if the show is renewed/cancelled?

 

As I understand it, The Good Wife hired new showrunners, then cancelled the show soon after.  So even that doesn't seem to be a guarantee.

 

 

 

 

FOX owns SH, which is a strong postive factor.

 

 

FOX owns most, if not all of its shows.  I think the biggest factor in favor of renewal is that one season, even a short season, gets them renewal money.  Since that is, in essence, free money, that should be a major plus.

 

Thrilled about Lucifer! yes. At least one hot Brit can be on my TV next season..

 

 I love Lucy.  But I want the ONE damn SF/F show (on the Big Four) with a black female lead to stay on the air!

 

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(edited)

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the show got renewed but Beharie doesn't return. It doesn't seem like she has the best relationship with TPTB. Even her and TM don't seem as close as they used to be. But I digress, if she wasn't returning that would certainly explain the introduction of Sophie.

Quoting myself here. With what just happened in the finale I'm now almost certain there was some serious BS going on behind the scenes hence NB's exit.

Edited by Enero
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(edited)

And now my watch has ended . . .

 

With what just happened in the finale I'm almost certain there was some serious BS going on behind the scenes hence NB's exit.

Seriously.  And we'll see the spin they go for, with THR reporting that NB has wanted out for a while.  That can mean a variety of things, and based on last season, I have to wonder if the show was just unwilling to work with her and/or saw Abbie as expendable (meaning they didn't have to make any concessions to her actress).  However, they may try to keep fans by saying that they had no choice but to kill off Abbie since Nicole wanted to move on.  Ugh!

Edited by netlyon2
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Well, if she truly wanted to be gone, then death is the only way I could see a character like Abbie exiting the fight.  I'm certainly not happy about it, though.  It's hard to imagine Sleepy Hollow going on without both Ichabod and Abbie.  Either way, I hope Nicole finds a new role that makes her happy, and wish her much success.

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(edited)

The more I hear about the [probable] unfair treatment of Nicole, the sadder I get. White men always get preferential treatment when it comes to money, job perks and professional status. I hate that women are always getting the short end of the stick and that black women get even a shorter stick. I wish Nicole well. I hope she finds a better gig soon and thank her for her hard work, dedication and professionalism in regards to SH. The only thing that would make me feel a little bit better is if I knew that TM went to bat for her or tried to. Guess he didn't or we'll never know. Fox, CC, MRM and the rest can go to hell.

Edited by taurusrose
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