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Ratings, Scheduling, and Watching for Cancellation/Renewal

Miss Dee

By Miss Dee
in Sleepy Hollow [V]

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phoenics

phoenics

Would you please translate what that means (use small words) for me?  I gather it is a good thing about the ratings, but not sure how to interpret the secret code.

So, after Thursday's premiere last week, we only had a 1.0 in the ratings - with about 3.1 million fans or so.

DVR ratings almost matched that, so we rose to a 1.7 with DVR+3 (that doesn't even include the +7 numbers), so we jumped TWO MILLION fans with those ratings.

If Fox would promote this show, I really believe it could actually overtake Bones. I'm watching Bones because I never watched Grey's Anatomy) and I'm watching SH live and DVR-watching it too.

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TaurusRose
TaurusRose

Finally.  Sleepy Hollow got the fuck you it worked hard to get and truly deserved.  It's good to be a vindicated, spiteful bitch.

LydiaMoon1
LydiaMoon1

Well, I guess Nicole Beharie wasn't quite as disposable as they thought, huh?   I'm wondering how badly that bile burned the gullets of the showrunners and Fox execs as they finally had to acknowledge

LydiaMoon1
LydiaMoon1

Today is rainy and gloomy and far too cool for May.  I didn't get the promotion I wanted and I don't feel that great. Sleepy Hollow has been cancelled? Best.Day.Everrrrrr!

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Julia

Julia

Would you please translate what that means (use small words) for me?  I gather it is a good thing about the ratings, but not sure how to interpret the secret code.

It means that a lot more people in the target demographic were willing to give it a shot after the reviews of the new direction came out.

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DearEvette

DearEvette

Would you please translate what that means (use small words) for me?  I gather it is a good thing about the ratings, but not sure how to interpret the secret code.

 

Ratings are based on Live viewing and then Live + 3 (meaning same day +3 days after the show airs) and then again L+7 (same day plus seven days after the show airs.)

 

Live viewing is critical because it is supposed to measure how people watch the show when it airs.  This is important because of commercial breaks.  In a nutshell ratings matter because the higher they are, the more money advertisers will pay to sponsor the show.

 

The problem with live viewing is that it is only measured if you have a Nielsen box.  A sample is taken and that sample is what is used to determine the overnight ratings.  In the old days when the only way to watch tv was to actually watch your tv, this was more statistically significant.

 

However nowadays with Netflix, Hulu, DVRs, computers, apps etc.  people don't watch in front of their sets anymore, so the live ratings give only a piece of the viewing story.

 

Which is why if you are not a Nielsen family and you want to make sure your show gets ratings,  then the best way to do it is to DVR it (or watch it on an ad supported platform like Hulu) within 3 days of it's live airing.   The best thing to do is DVR it (don't skip the commercials) and watch it no later than 3am of the day it airs.

 

The L+3 numbers are significant because they at least let Fox know, that while people didn't watch it live (most likely because nobody knew it was back on Thursday) once people realized it was back, they scrambled to DVRs, Hulu etc. and watched it within days of airing.  This helps immensely because while the live numbers were dismal, it signals that interest in the show is still high enough that people make a point to watch it soonish.

 

The 18-49 demographic is the sweet spot.  It is the age group where the advertisers like to target.  It is so important that a lot of people never even look at the total number of viewers, but instead only pay attention to the 18-49 demo rating.  So it is possible for a show to have less total viewers than another show, but be considered a higher rated show because they might have more viewers in the 18-49 demo.

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Moonsky

Moonsky

I will admit I though the Thursday move would benefit the show or at least be neutral, but losing Gotham as a lead in and the fact that Scandal has bounced back in the ratings has not helped things. Still, I was hoping for around a 1.4 to match the season 2 finale and was dissapointed with the result for the first episode.

 

Like others have said, I think the hope is that due to the lack of promotion and the timeslot change, there is actually room to grow from the premiere if people get back into the show. Even if it mostly can stay stable for a while, that could give it a chance considering the rest of FOX dramas. Only Empire is really a lock for renewal at this point, and a network produced show like Sleepy Hollow in its third season could still be an attractive option at season's end if the show can improve.

 

I do think though it is worthwhile to assume there is a good chance that this could be the last season. And if this does end up being the case, at least the show should get a chance to air all of the episodes due to the lack of replacement options FOX has to air in its place. If the writers have advance knowledge, hopefully they can write a satisfactory ending to the series.

 

The move to Thursdays wasn’t a huge problem as long as FOX had reasonable expectations for SH’s live ratings when taking into consideration that the show was coming off a turbulent season 2, there was a lack of promo during the long 9 month hiatus, & the show was now going up against new but also tough competition. Mondays at 9 was a tough timeslot for SH in season 2 & some critics/fans felt that Gotham wasn’t the best lead in for the show either. Bones was the lead in for SH in season 1 when it got its best ratings, so being behind Bones again isn’t the worse possible scenario for the show. Bones & SH do have some similarities between them & Bones has been able to give FOX good live ratings for more than a decade, which the network is probably hoping may help SH during the season. SH had to compete in season 2 against programs that got great live ratings like Monday Night Football, Scorpion, The Voice, & Dancing with the Stars every week. Despite that they were still able to stay above 4 million live viewers for the entire season & operate between 1.3-1.5 demos for most of the season before factoring in L3 & L7 numbers which even during a tumultuous season 2, the show could always rely on.

 

Thursdays at 9 is a competitive timeslot also due to Thursday Night Football, Scandal, & The Blacklist. I don’t think the live ratings that SH got in season 2 (staying above 4 million live viewers & a 1.2 demo) would have been too much to expect during the season 3 premiere if the show had stronger & better promo during the long hiatus considering what they got in live viewership for the premiere with basically no real promo at all. The live viewership may increase for upcoming episodes now that more people know that it’s on Thursdays (instead of Mondays) or if they waited to read reviews to see if it’s worth watching live again. Some viewers may just continue to live watch other programs like Thursday Night Football/The Blacklist/Scandal & later watch SH on DVR/Hulu/Fox Now & continue to add to the L3 & L7 numbers which also helps the show even though live ratings are always preferred.

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DearEvette

DearEvette

I think the positive buzz by critics so far re: the S3 premiere might be helping too.  I don't think we can understate how bad S2 & the lack of promotion hurt Sleepy Hollow going into last Thursday.  Even as late as a the end of Sept. there were people on twitter who 1) feeling bad that Sleepy Hollow got cancelled (cuz of course it wasn't in its normal Monday timeslot) or 2) had no idea when it was actually on. 

 

If the show really finds its footing and the live numbers rise, even to the S2 live average of 1.5, especially against the Thursday Heroes/Blacklist/Scandal/Football competition, then I think Sleepy can survive to Season 4.

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Moonsky

Moonsky

(edited)

Yeah the first month or so of season 2 was still able to get a few episodes that had over 5 million live viewers & demos above 1.6 but once louder complaints picked up steam about the quality of writing for some characters & the overall storyline, the sidelining of fan favorites, then the bad press began to increase which hurt live ratings. Also during the second half of the season there was a decrease in commercial promo on FOX for the show, so that didn’t help matters.

 

For most of the second half of the season though, live viewership was between 4.2 to 4.5 million with demos mostly around 1.4-1.5. Now that I think about it though, there actually was an episode towards the end of season 2 that fell below 4 million live viewers but went back over it for the rest of the season, so yeah SH already had experienced live ratings below 4 million viewers but the season 3 premiere was an all-time low.

Edited by Moonsky
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DearEvette

DearEvette

Y' know, I'll take that.  Of all the Thursday shows, Sleepy Hollow is the only one to stay steady from last week.  All the rest dropped, some noticeably.  And if the L+SD, L+3 & L+7 numbers perform like they did last week, I think we can let out a slow, optimistic breath for now.

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DeLurker

DeLurker

It's too early for me to tell how Season 3 will go, but if it doesn't stop grinding itself to a halt with SBR, I won't be opposed to cancellation just to free up the main cast to go on to better things.

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Enero

Enero

That's too bad about the ratings. The show seems to be getting better each week but the ratings are not reflecting this. 

 

Does anyone know if there was jump in the 18-49 demo for last week's episode after they added in DVR viewings?

 

I agree though, the show is done. Hope we'll at least get to see all the episodes that were filmed.

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benteen

benteen

It's one of the reasons I thought it was a mistake to expand to 18 episodes after Season 1.  More episodes provides more opportunities to expose your declining ratings.

 

The best they can do now is stabilize at a 1.0.  Maybe the show can get picked up elsewhere but otherwise, this is likely the last season and that's too bad because the show has really improved this season.

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Yolapukka

Yolapukka

There might be an improvement if they move it back to it's old spot, but either way they have really dropped the ball on promotion, I have noticed they have stepped it up a little, especially for the crossover. I do wonder if some of the reason for the lack of promotion is because the premiere was a weak episode that only fans would enjoy and they thought it would be a wasted effort but are willing to push the show once it works past the clunkiness from the reset.

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cynic

cynic

That's too bad. Seems like this is the last season. Honestly, we all suspected the new showrunner and changes were a hail mary anyway.

I actually wish that, instead of jettisoning the apocalypse and rejiggering the show into a procedural, the powers the be had doubled down on the crazy mythology and decided to go out with a bang and give us all a great ending. I want them to defeat the horsemen and find out why they were picked as witnesses and what happened to the Mills sisters in the woods and what the Masons had to do with it all. I also want to see Crane really settle into this era or return happily to his time. And if he stays, I want him to be with Abbie and finally get some new clothes. If this is it, I don't care about Pandora at all.

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DearEvette

DearEvette

Yeah, that is kinda ouchy.  But in context, every show dropped the same percentage except Grey's.  Scandal is a 2.4. It premiered at a 3.2.  It has been dropping each week.   HTGAWM premiered at a 2.8 and it is now a 2.0.  Blacklist premiered at a  1.8 and now it is a 1.4.

 

Whether SH survives depends on how happy Fox is at its performance comparative to it's competition -- including how well it stacks up to other Fox shows. Minority Report is effectively cancelled.  Scream Queens is a 1.0. Rosewood is their most successful new show but it is benefiting from being paired with Empire.  Whether it has legs remains to be seen. it also depends on how much weight Fox gives SH's L+3 numbers.  SH tends to do very well in L+3. 

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icewolf

icewolf

Sleepy Hollow should immediately be moved to Friday nights.

Pull a "Grimm" and end up with five seasons just because lower ratings are expected on Fridays. Fringe being moved to that day was the only reason that got a seasons 4 and 5. You don't have to be huge, just be the biggest fish in a small lake.

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BestestAuntEver

BestestAuntEver

That's too bad. Seems like this is the last season. Honestly, we all suspected the new showrunner and changes were a hail mary anyway.

I actually wish that, instead of jettisoning the apocalypse and rejiggering the show into a procedural, the powers the be had doubled down on the crazy mythology and decided to go out with a bang and give us all a great ending. I want them to defeat the horsemen and find out why they were picked as witnesses and what happened to the Mills sisters in the woods and what the Masons had to do with it all. I also want to see Crane really settle into this era or return happily to his time. And if he stays, I want him to be with Abbie and finally get some new clothes. If this is it, I don't care about Pandora at all.

I want answers to all of those things too. If it's the end, I don't want to see SBR and I want Pandira's story to wrap up or find out Moloch was her lover and she's revenging his death.

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vanarnd1

vanarnd1

 

 

Whether SH survives depends on how happy Fox is at its performance comparative to it's competition -- including how well it stacks up to other Fox shows. Minority Report is effectively cancelled.  Scream Queens is a 1.0. Rosewood is their most successful new show but it is benefiting from being paired with Empire.  Whether it has legs remains to be seen. it also depends on how much weight Fox gives SH's L+3 numbers.  SH tends to do very well in L+3. 

This is the once chance the show has, if everything else around it falls apart. The only sure thing FOX has in terms of dramas is Empire(and likely Gotham). Bones is doing decently, but they would have to get the cast to agree to contracts again for a new season so that is always tricky. Rosewood got a full season order, but has fallen from a 2.5 to 1.4 in four episodes, Scream Queens is likely gone and Minority Report as you said has been pretty much canceled.

 

If at the end of the year FOX needs to full a bunch of slots in their lineup, maybe they will bring back a low rated sleepy hollow and drag it to syndication instead of premiering more (likely failing) new shows. I still think the odds are against a renewal, but the fact the show is on FOX does at least give it a chance to survive

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stealinghome

stealinghome

Since Minority Report is DOA, I wonder if Fox will move SH back to its old timeslot and see what the ratings do. What does Fox have to lose?

 

Agree that SH is helped by being so close to syndication, and by the fact that the rest of Fox is absolutely tanking. I wouldn't be surprised to see them renewed for a long S4, to get enough episodes to be syndication-worthy, and then be treated like schedule spackle or even a summer show.

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cynic

cynic

Unfortunately, Sleepy Hollow won't be close to the magic 100 episode syndication number or even 88 episodes with a fourth season. They'll only have 49 at the end of season 3. And the episodes from the first two seasons are more serialized, which hurts them too.

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icewolf

icewolf

Ratings for the crossover from Marc Berman. SH had the bigger boost from last week, but to be fair Bones had to go against "It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown".

8:00 p.m.

Fox – Bones

Viewers: 6.27 million (#1), A18-49: 1.2/ 5 (#3)

8:30 p.m.

Fox – Bones

Viewers: 6.49 million (#2), A18-49: 1.3/ 4 (#3)

9:00 p.m.

Fox – Sleepy Hollow

Viewers: 4.88 million (#4), A18-49: 1.1/ 4 (#4)

9:30 p.m.

Fox – Sleepy Hollow

Viewers: 4.24 million (#4), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (#4)

http://www.tvmediainsights.com/forum/topic/thursday-102915-4/

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icewolf

icewolf

Sleepy Hollow moves to Fridays in February

 

I totally called it a few weeks back

 

I wonder when FOX will announce that Sleepy Hollow will move to Fridays?

Being on Fridays means less pressure to get high ratings. FOX managed to get 2 extra seasons out of Fridge after the move, and Grimm will hit 100 episodes this season with so and so ratings on Fridays that would have been unacceptable any other day of the week.

I imagine FOX will try to save this show instead of just letting it sink since they have a stake in it, they are making the show.

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Free

Free

If it can stay in the 0.8-1.0 range on Fridays, then it has a very good chance to survive.  Any lower than that, and it's pretty much done.

 

That seems to be where it is now, but we'll have to wait and see how it does then.

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Morrigan2575

Morrigan2575

If it can stay in the 0.8-1.0 range on Fridays, then it has a very good chance to survive. Any lower than that, and it's pretty much done.

Fridays have less viewers that's why shows on Friday's have lower standards then the rest of the week. As such the odds that SH would pull the same numbers on Friday that it does on Thursday are low.

Not to mention SH moves to Fridays after a protracted break (2 months?) and in the Spring (when ratings are also notoriously lower).

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HalcyonDays

HalcyonDays

Not surprised about this move, though expected cancellation announcement first. That will come in in 2016. Ratings are low, it's up against other shows, people refuse to watch for *reasons*, what can you do?

 

For me, it's not a bad thing. Thursday's were already stacked big time for me, with SH, HTGAWM and Elementary (though I always watched SH live). Friday's is good (for me) but not ratings. Too bad. Makes me sad, like when Constantine (which aired Friday's) was cancelled.

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Free

Free

Not surprised about this move, though expected cancellation announcement first. That will come in in 2016. Ratings are low, it's up against other shows, people refuse to watch for *reasons*, what can you do?

 

For me, it's not a bad thing. Thursday's were already stacked big time for me, with SH, HTGAWM and Elementary (though I always watched SH live). Friday's is good (for me) but not ratings. Too bad. Makes me sad, like when Constantine (which aired Friday's) was cancelled.

 

Nothing has been cancelled yet, so it seems like networks are going to drag things out as much as possible.

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LydiaMoon1

LydiaMoon1

(edited)

Due to the pressures of streaming platforms and other technology, networks have been reluctant to cancel shows this fall.  Instead, they have been slashing episode orders and changing show timeslots.  Frankly, I see it as cancellation by another name.  I think they’ll air the remaining episodes and call it a day.

 

Sleepy Hollow will go down in the annals of television history as a master class on how to f*ck up a hit show.

Edited by LydiaMoon1
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HalcyonDays

HalcyonDays

Nothing has been cancelled yet, so it seems like networks are going to drag things out as much as possible.

 

Maybe. FOX does own the show. They could be trying for syndication, which I doubt, because I never see reruns of the show aired. They really should put it back Monday's, since Minority Report will be gone, but again, that's FOX's launching ground for new shows.

 

I can't help but mourn at what could have been, if people focused on the right things. Instead, I can only quote some Smith's lyrics (I Know it's Over):

 

And I know it's over

Still I cling

I don't know where else I can go

It's over, it's over, it's over

I know it's over

And it never really began

But in my heart it was so real....

 

SH was special to me for very personal reasons, so it really kills me that the show is mostly likely done this year, and that everyone is so focused on the one thing, or complaining about minor aspects of the show, that they a) don't watch, therefore assisting the cancellation and b) miss the big picture.

 

At least I have the time now to get over the show myself, and move on, so to speak. C'est La Vie.

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Free

Free

They really should put it back Monday's, since Minority Report will be gone, but again, that's FOX's launching ground for new shows.

 

They already have Lucifer there mid season, they're just letting the remaining episodes play out.

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LydiaMoon1

LydiaMoon1

SH was special to me for very personal reasons, so it really kills me that the show is mostly likely done this year, and that everyone is so focused on the one thing, or complaining about minor aspects of the show, that they a) don't watch, therefore assisting the cancellation and b) miss the big picture.

 

 

I sympathize that you're hurting, but (1) MANY things were done wrong on this show, (2) none of those things were minor, (3) viewers abandoned the show in droves for those very reasons, and (4) the only people who missed the big picture were TPTB in charge of the show and the executives at FOX. 

 

Personally, I hope the demise of Sleepy Hollow teaches Hollywood that viewers like me will no longer tolerate the bait and switch of offering “diversity” only to retreat back to the same old same old as soon as they think they have a hit.

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cynic

cynic

They'll only have 49 episodes in the can at the end of this season, so I don't think syndication hopes are going to be very realistic.

I think the big picture for many people is that the show simply isn't enjoyable anymore or that it's no longer providing the things that drew them to the show in the first place. That may manifest in noticing (and complaining about) the small things more, but the underlying problem is that the show isn't giving us enough reasons to overlook them. I was crazy about this show in the first season. I own the DVD and have probably watched the first half dozen episodes ten times each. I struggle to remain invested. I'll watch to the bitter end, but I can't fault those that have decided they have better things to do. At the end, I'll mourn the show that those first six or so episodes promised this could be, not necessarily the 40+ episodes that I sat through based on that promise.

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