S30: Spoilers

[blackwing]

I disagree with his assessment that the Rot has played a strong and quiet game.  The Rot's game is all about bullying.  Mike calls out his secret sub-alliance of 4.  His immediate reaction is to scream and yell and bluster.

 

Neither Will nor Sierra have made any moves.  They are akin to recent final tribal losers Monica Culpepper, Gervase Peterson, Woo, Jaclyn and Missy.  None of those people did much at all.  I guess Jaclyn was the one out of them that actually made some moves but not nearly as much as Natalie.

[ProfCrash]

I do think I could make a case for Rodney but I don't think that Rodney could make the case for himself. Rodney brought together the four for an alliance that has been pretty strong and took control of the game when Mike outed the four. His reactions are over the top but that seems to be written off as Rodney being Rodney and no one seems to be overly offended. He made people laugh a lot out there and that is always appreciated. That said, Tyler was planning on taking Rodney and Will to the final because they were goats, so maybe the Rodney is Rodney thing is a bit over played. I think it is easy to mention the fact that he won nothing, and was loud, and that he was more of a foil then a mastermind. I don't think it is hard to counter the argument.

 

Sierra can win if she is up against Rodney and Will. Shirin has said that Sierra played a great social game and I think Sierra could actually outline why she didn't flip based on numbers and that it was better for her to stay with the majority.

 

Will cannot win. In no way shape or form can Will win. He has done nothing. He has won a few rewards with others but he has won nothing, he has not strategized, he has been a pawn, and he had a pretty darn ugly fight. Cannot win.

 

Carolyn or Mike win if they make it to the finals. I can't see both of them making it because I think Sierra knows that she loses to either one of them and will not vote with them. I think Mike and Carolyn knows that they are better off not facing the other in the final and now that the idols are played which ever one of them loses immunity goes home.

[peachmangosteen]

I don't really agree about some of those former players not making moves, Missy especially, but that's OT so I'll just say I think Sierra made one important/big move: she decided to stick with her original alliance rather than go with the minority who had no chance and which was full of people she'd never beat. And then she made some smaller, but important, moves to make sure that she had a good social connection to all the people who'd be on the jury. It's a quiet game, it's an UTR game, and it's not an exciting game for tv, but it was her only move and it was a good one that many players who've won have used. It's a game I usually personally prefer, probably because it's normally the only game many women are able to play and it's the kind of game I would play most likely. Sierra at least never made any glaring mistakes like everyone else left (also Dan and Tyler) did.

 

Mike and Carolyn have definitely played the biggest games of those left and I won't hate seeing either of them win even though personally I think they're not that great as game players or people really and who got lucky that this season was full of stupid dicks.

 

Rodney is the reason why most of those that made the F8 made it IMO. He formed the alliance that ran the entire post merge game. He's stupid though and his social game is kind of hit or miss. I wouldn't hate him as much as I hate some previous winners.

 

Honestly as long as Will doesn't win, which will not happen, I'm not gonna be too mad at the winner. But I also won't be happy about the winner. It'll be like 'meh.' This season is just 'meh.'

[Wings]

The videos will not play for me.  What is the site so I can go there.  It says I have to sign.  Who the hell knows where!  

[peachmangosteen]

What videos?

[Wings]

Previews one page back.  

[LadyChatts]

I think Rodney's arrogance will do him in, and I don't think he can put together enough of a compelling jury speech without making it sound like a big F-U to those sitting there.  In saying that, that outburst with Mike after he outed Rodney's alliance seemd to turn the tide on Mike.  I have to believe it's somewhat creative editing, and Mike was always going to be #7 because he was the next biggest threat.  Sierra and Dan may not have realized it then, but after Mike went off, they were fine believing they weren't at the bottom and Mike was a loon.  He did put an alliance together, but in reality, that's all he did.  Now, he can always say that he acted out simply because he knew that would have someone drag him to the end thinking he was a goat.  It's hard to read between the lines.  It appears Rodney wasn't entirely well liked in the game, yet outside of the game people realize they underestimated him and think he's great.  So it's hard to say what will happen.  I do think Rodney could potentially win in a final 3 of Sierra and Will.  However, I 100% believe that this is Carolyn's to lose.  I have a feeling we have at least 1 more endurance challenge to come, and that's been her strong suit.  Rodney and Will likely know they are going to the end.

 

Reading Jiffy's analysis again, I just feel he makes it sound like the only 2 with any shot are Mike and Carolyn, with an outside chance of Rodney.  And those are the 3 winners Probst would get behind.  Will isn't winning.  No way.  In a final 1 with just Will he wouldn't win.

[Jersey Guy 87]

Reading Jiffy's analysis again, I just feel he makes it sound like the only 2 with any shot are Mike and Carolyn, with an outside chance of Rodney.  And those are the 3 winners Probst would get behind.  Will isn't winning.  No way.  In a final 1 with just Will he wouldn't win.

 

Will would be lucky to come in third in that scenario.

[Jextella]

I do think I could make a case for Rodney but I don't think that Rodney could make the case for himself.

Way to sum up Rodney.  Spot on!

[LadyChatts]

http://survivorfever.net/images30/s30_press_images_ep14/s30_press_images_ep14_0032.JPG

 

This is a jury shot of Hali/Joe/Jenn/Shirin (all looking exactly how they did when they started the game).  I had wondered if it was in reaction to Tyler:

 

http://survivorfever.net/images30/s30_press_images_ep14/s30_press_images_ep14_0036.JPG

 

http://survivorfever.net/s30_press_images_ep14.html

 

These are the promos shots for the finale.  @wonald pointed out in the spec thread that CBS basically gave it away in another promo that Carolyn/Will/Mike make the final 4, which means one of Sierra or Rodney goes out 5th.

 

These are the additional promo pics for the finale:

 

http://survivorfever.net/vc_s30_web_promo_ep14.html

 

http://survivorfever.net/vc_s30_ep14_5_13.html

Edited May 19, 2015 by LadyChatts

[SomeTameGazelle]

http://survivorfever.net/images30/s30_press_images_ep14/s30_press_images_ep14_0032.JPG

 

This is a jury shot of Hali/Joe/Jenn/Shirin (all looking exactly how they did when they started the game).  I had wondered if it was in reaction to Tyler:

 

http://survivorfever.net/images30/s30_press_images_ep14/s30_press_images_ep14_0036.JPG

 

Doesn't Tyler have a plaid shirt that looks very much like the sleeve shown to Shirin's left in the Hali/Joe/Jenn/Shirin pic, but he's wearing black in the second pic linked?

 

Edited to get link to correct video.

Edited May 19, 2015 by SomeTameGazelle

[dolphincorn]

I don't understand anything about what you're suggesting from looking at those photos. Can you please enlighten me how the final three has been spoiled?

 

Okay, I just reread and you said "final four" not "final three." Now I get it.

Edited May 19, 2015 by dolphincorn

[LadyChatts]

Doesn't Tyler have a plaid shirt that looks very much like the sleeve shown to Shirin's left in the Hali/Joe/Jenn/Shirin pic, but he's wearing black in the second pic linked?

 

Edited to get link to correct video.

 

Yeah, that's definitely his plaid shirt sticking out by Shirin.  Have they ever made them all dress in the same clothes they started this season with at the finale (minus the early seasons like Outback, Africa, and Thailand-I think Africa and Thailand they were pretending the vote wasn't live).

 

Anxious to get this season done.  Anxious for the S31 reveal, and to see whether that'll be a dream or if the nightmare that was this season extends into next season.  Really want to see if the audience is told to be on there best behavior and not boo any particular Survivors, and how deep Jeff will let certain someones bury themselves.

[Nutjob]

That snippet of Will in the promo LadyChatts linked above pretty much tells me he's F3--why else would he be talking about what he's done throughout the game, if he hadn't been asked about facing the jury? Plus, no one in their right mind would vote him off at this point anyway, because he's the perfect goat. Of course, I guess you could interpret the snippet of Rodney that way, as well, but then he's always spouting off about what a great game he's playing.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Nutjob

[ProfCrash]

I honestly think that Carolyn voted for Dan last week only because Mike was voting for Dan and because of the extra vote. Dan would have been a great goat but when push came to shove, Mike and Carolyn needed to find a common vote. Dan was the best option. I think that Mike wants to avoid voting for Sierra because he has been in an alliance with her for ages. Will is such a massive goat that neither Mike or Carolyn would vote for him. I get the feeling that Rodney is seen as a goat, a fun loving, sexist goat but a goat none the less.

 

Can you imagine that your vote is honestly coming down to which goat is most easily disposed of? Just ugh.

 

OK, so I see Mike winning Final Five Immunity and Carolyn teams up with Will and Rodney to vote out Sierra. Will and Rodney have had a final four with Carolyn for ages and I can see both of them thinking that if they vote her out they lose all votes because they flipped on their final four. Mike and Sierra vote for the same person, probably Carolyn because she has a better chance at winning then Will and Rodney and she is not part of the Blue Collar tribe. And no one is voting out Will because he is such a freaking goat.

[kikaha]

I honestly think that Carolyn voted for Dan last week only because Mike was voting for Dan and because of the extra vote.

 

I think the extra vote was the key.  Carolyn was targeting Dan -- she called him the most dangerous one out there -- and I bet she convinced Mike to vote out Dan, instead of Mike convincing her. 

[Ellee]

Ok...in this picture of Will in the Final 4 challenge (?) .... is that Carolyn running up the stairs in the background or is that Sierra? 

 

I'm thinking it is Sierra.

 

Edited May 19, 2015 by Ellee

[LadyChatts]

That's Carolyn.  I recognize the braid.  I'm thinking Sierra goes out 5th.  If she somehow outlasts Rodney, either he's been getting a horrible edit and she's more of a nightmare/goat to sit next to, or the others decide they want someone decent and desirable to win so they boot him and take their chances.

[ProfCrash]

That is Caroline

[AZChristian]

So, if Rodney's father comes in for the family visit, will he be bringing a birthday cake?

[LadyChatts]

http://www.survivorfever.net/images30/s30_press_images_ep14/s30_press_images_ep14_0029.JPG

 

In looking through the press photos again (mainly to see if maybe they gave away Mike making the final 3 and I can watch the finale with peace of mind), this photo of Jeff stood out to me.  He's crouched down and looks kind of serious.  When has Jeff done that, other than talking to someone on the verge of qutting or when medical has to come in?  It's not often he does that for a challenge that I can recall.  It could be nothing, but I wonder if something happens that causes a contestant to be medevac.  I can't tell what challenge this is, but could that be how Carolyn and Mike both make the final 4?  So far, its the only explanation I have for that happening, unless an idol is re-hidden and found.  Maybe there's still a merge idol out there that one of them stumbles across.  In one of the sneak peek promos, when the 4 are gloating back at the beach, we hear Carolyn say idols are out of play now-I'm hoping that's possible foreshadowing to Mike finding an idol and springing it on them, giving us a Malcolm-Caramoan moment.  Since we still have the RC, I suppose its possible that a clue is there.  I debated whether they would bother re-hiding the idol, since it can last be used at the final 5.  But why not?  Give someone that last chance that they would have had if the idol was in their possession anyway. 

Edited May 20, 2015 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

I feel like they've never rehidden an idol this late before, but I could be wrong. Or they could still do it this season anyway.

 

That promo pic of Jeff does look very much like he's talking to someone about them quitting/being med evaced. But if that were to happen I think it'd be hinted at in the promos.

 

The photo of the jury is weird. Obviously they're not looking at anyone at TC. They have to be looking at either Jeff or a jury member asking their question. But I don't think it's the latter because you can see Tyler's plaid shirt and we know from another pic that he wears a black shirt for jury questioning. So, I guess they're reacting to Jeff. Oh, or I guess someone could've done something funny on their way over to vote. Also, the fact that they're wearing their day 1 clothes is very strange to me. Although maybe they all just thought it'd be cute to do that. I can see that bunch doing that.

[LadyChatts]

I wouldn't expect them to hide the idol, but they seem to make things up as they go along.  Since the final 5 is the last time someone can use an idol, maybe they figured they'd give it a shot.  Especially if it benefits Mike.  Enough of this season has been predictable, and it'll be very obvious he gets booted unless he wins immunity or has something up his sleeve to stay safe.  No one would buy a fake idol ploy at this point, and they would just split their votes if they had any doubt.

 

I would also think they'd mention something about an emergency in the promos somewhere, but maybe they figured that was also a dead giveaway.  Of course, they spoiled 3 out of the final 4, so what do they have to lose at this point.  We did hear Mike say in a voice over something about making a million dollar mistake, so I had questioned if he floundered on a challenge, or chose to align with someone that he realizes maybe he can't beat in the end.  I'm thinking that quote might come after the final 4 IC, where Mike might have lost because of something stupid (too flustered for the puzzle, dropped something only to discover it was right at his feet the whole time).

Edited May 20, 2015 by LadyChatts

[blackwing]

So it looks like the Reward Challenge at Final 5 has something to do with the stack of squares that Sierra and Will are seen balancing.  The immunity challenge at Final 5 is some kind of maze with stations you have to do something at (those disks with the W on them).  The immunity challenge at Final 4 is the obstacle course with the waterslide.

 

For the Final 5 immunity, that huge compass on the ground, I'm assuming that is something that was previously existing, and that Survivor didn't tear up all the grass and trees?  It's pretty cool.

[LadyChatts]

Survivor Fever has their final predictions for the season.  I have a feeling next season they will be more accurate, because there will no doubt be some bitter betties ready to spill the beans that actually make it onto S31.

 

Winner: Mike

2nd: Carolyn

3rd: Will

4th: Rodney (Mike wins IC)

5th: Sierra (Mike wins IC & RC)

 

We know from the promos that Mike, Carolyn, and Will are definitely in the final 4.  I think Sierra going at the final 5 is a good bet.  She's more likable than Rodney and Will, and even if it could be argued against her that she didn't do much in the game, why take a chance?  Not sure on the RC part but I would love it if Rodney loses yet again.  Especially for the family visit, and he gets left behind.  

 

I do wonder if Mike's voiceover saying it was a million dollar mistake means he voted Rodney off instead of Carolyn.  While I'd love for this to be the outcome, I'm going to be nervous the last hour, until Mike gets that immunity necklace on for the second time.  There's a woman on twitter claiming that Will's sister spilled the beans on the final 3, though no one seems to be able to find anything to back her claim up.  She's gone as far as tweeting Jeff and CBS about it.  From what I gathered at the other sites, it appeared she was saying that the spoiled final 3 was Will, Carolyn, and Rodney.  Which isn't really a spoiler, because I think most people figured that was going to be the case.  

Edited May 20, 2015 by LadyChatts

[pennben]

So, now that Survivor Fever has weighed in, we know Mike doesn't win.:)  I kid, I kid!

[cooker30]

I posted earlier today in the spec thread that i thought will would flip to mike and carolyn and they'd be the final three:) Now I'm really looking forward to seeing if he does it for the reason I said (assuming of course that they really are the final 3.)

I did just post that i thought rodney went out 5th but it was kind if a coin toss for me so i can deal with being wrong on that:)

[LadyChatts]

So, now that Survivor Fever has weighed in, we know Mike doesn't win.:)  I kid, I kid!

 

Lol sadly, you are probably right.  I think they got the first half right, but the second half is probably going to be wrong.  I'm still going with Mike out at 4th, and Rodney in the final 3.  I hope Jeff brings up to Rod about his gestures at TC; the hand gestures he always made when people he didn't like were voted off.  I have a feeling that's coming if he gets Mike out.  For the love of Survivor, gods, please let Mike, their so-called villain, triumph!

 

Tyler's been posting some things on his twitter and instagram, and I guess got called out because people thought he was spoiled the outcome.  One photos on his instagram has the seating of some of the S31 hopefuls.  You see Carolyn's name reserved, but not Mike's.  I have a feeling his seat was reserved out of the shot, but really, I think TPTB let this group be a little too loose with their tweets, interviews, and pics.

[pennben]

OMG! Shirin is not wearing the suit jacket grinning ear to ear from one of the photos released to promo the episode. Is she grinning like that at next tribal?!