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S30: Spoilers


peachmangosteen
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(edited)

Which if that ends up being the case, I'm really going to hate this twist (unless it gets rid of Rodney/Mike/Dan/Joaquin-in that case, bring it on).

 

LOL! I 100% agree.

 

Actually, since I'm not too invested in any of the contestants I'm OK with that twist.

 

Based on those rumors that Joaquin was to go last week and the IC for this ep, I'm thinking Blue will lost the IC and then Dan/Mike/Sierra will decide to get rid of Joaquin because of the connection with Rodney.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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After doing some more digging, the black vote was considered a revenge vote by an eliminated contestant, who was allowed to cast one more vote against the remaining contestants.  It sounded like it was only used one time, so I'm assuming that it might have been some sort of perk in a reward challenge, but obviously could only be used if the person was voted out. 

I don't follow that closely the French version of Survivor (called "Koh Lanta") but at least in the last two seasons the eliminated contestant was indeed allowed, before leaving, to cast a vote (the "black vote") for one remaining contestant, and this vote was added to all the votes the following week and would count as any other vote. So pretty much what you said :) But this didn't happen only once, it happened at every vote from the beginning of the season.

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I don't follow that closely the French version of Survivor (called "Koh Lanta") but at least in the last two seasons the eliminated contestant was indeed allowed, before leaving, to cast a vote (the "black vote") for one remaining contestant, and this vote was added to all the votes the following week and would count as any other vote. So pretty much what you said :) But this didn't happen only once, it happened at every vote from the beginning of the season.

 

Thanks!  My French is a little rusty, and I wasn't able to get some of the pages online to translate correctly.  I only saw the part about the eliminated contestant casting a final vote.  I don't know if our version would do this every boot or not, but I guess I wouldn't be surprised (post merge, that is, at this point).  Still on the fence whether I'd like it or not, but I guess that all depends who it ends up hurting/benefiting.  If it gets into a boring rhythm of who gets voted off because of the extra vote, I probably won't get onboard.  When Jeff gets super excited about something it's hard for me to think of it as being a good thing.  That's assuming of course this is the twist :)  Going to do some more digging on other versions and see if they have anything we haven't done yet.

 

Per SF, Esecemca is both the RC/IC winners, and Kelly is the predicted boot.  Probably a smart idea to get the blue collar numbers down, if that's true.  They've been right all season, except last week when predicting Joaquin over Max.

Edited by LadyChatts
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And they were wrong again this week, too.  And never have I been so glad to see a spoiler wrong!  Joaquin's boot was amazing!  So he really did go as speculated!

 

They were off by a week, so I wonder if they were off a week with Kelly and she goes next week.  Even though I'd rather see 4 other people go ahead of her (all remaining men not named Joe or Will), I can't say that's a boot that would disappoint me.  But I was happy that they were wrong, or off, or whatever.  Joaquin and Carolyn were predicted to be the last 2 pre-merge boots, so we got Joaquin in there.  I wonder if Carolyn ends up being the first merge casualty and that's where that came from.  Hopefully it's wrong.

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I keep waiting for Carolyn to go because her and So are so close now and I would find that even more odd than I already do if they didn't even spend any amount of time together out there. I'd love to see her blindsided with the HII in her pocket right before merge because it'd be hilarious. But I'd rather see Dan, Mike, Rodney, and Tyler go before her really.

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All signs seem to point to Carolyn being the merge boot. I have resigned myself to Dan and Rodney being jury a long time ago. Sigh.

 

I don't really mind Carol missing the jury bc except for a stellar first ep., her play has been awful and she deserves the boot.

Edited by wonald
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I don't know if I automatically base being close to someone as where they ended up-everyone's been home since the fall, so they'd have plenty of time connect with each other.  This cast especially seems closer than I can remember any cast being.  But since I've heard everywhere that Joaquin and Carolyn were the last 2 boots before the merge (or directly after), I'm resigned to the fact that she may be going next.  I'll be disappointed, because with all the talk about breaking up power couples, doesn't anyone think they should take out a BC first?  Especially break up Mike/Dan/Kelly?  I can understand Shirin possibly targeting Carolyn/Tyler out of spite, and everyone may want to break up that duo regardless.  But I'm hoping that Sierra and Rodney do defect and shake things up.  Since SF was off by a week with it's prediction, I really hope Kelly is the one going home next week.  I like Carolyn, and Kelly does nothing for me.

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Interesting. Joaquin may or may not have spoiled that Carolyn does make the merge and that the next person (Kelly?) does not make the jury.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/survivor-joaquin-interview-that-bromance-was-real-bro

 

Tom Santilli: When you found out you missed the merge by only a few days, was that like salt in the wound?

Joaquin: Yeah, it really was. You know you go back to Ponderosa and then they send the next person up and you find out you were just hours away from hitting the merge and being reunited with Carolyn.

Edited by LanceM
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I had to read that a couple of times, but Carolyn was his alliance so I think that's what he meant.  When I first read it, I thought he was saying 'being reunited with Carolyn' as in she was sent to Ponderosa next and he found out the merge happened that way.  But his alliance was with her/Tyler, so I'm assuming that's what he meant by being reunited.  I'm still hoping Kelly, or any BC not named Sierra, is voted off next.  It's actually sad that I don't know which of the 4 I'd rather see go first.  They all seem to annoy me equally.

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/s30_press_images_ep7.html

 

Looks like it's an endurance challenge for the first individual immunity.

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I like the idea of a black vote, especially if it counts at the next tribal. It puts a nice twist to the strategy if one person is going into tribal with one vote already that everyone knows about.

It is definately a disadvantage, but not an insurmountable one.

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(edited)

Probst's EW tease:

 

Oh it's ON. It’'s a GREAT episode. Everything and everyone is up for grabs and they have to start over… literally!

 

I was trying to figure out what he meant by literally but then I was like well he probably doesn't know how to use the word correctly anyway so.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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You mean this is cast has gotten all so close and that includes Rodney and Dan?  Really?  Ok I can see Joaquin and Rodney and Dan, but the rest, really? 

If Rodney and Dan make the jury I will have lost faith in Survivor being more than a game of chance forever.

Edited by marys1000
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(edited)

If Rodney and Dan make the jury I will have lost faith in Survivor being more than a game of chance forever.

 

Well, at least one of them will absolutely make jury based on the numbers. I imagine they both will since neither has much of a chance of winning and isn't much of a challenge threat. 

 

I only know who's close based on Max and Shirin because I check both their twitters. Max seems super close to Shirin, pus Mike, Joe, Joaquin, Tyler, and Carolyn somewhat. Shirin is close to Max and Jenn and Mike maybe. Oh and Joe/Jenn/Hali seem pretty close. But they all have that #Dirty30 thing so they're all at least superficially close.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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(edited)

I decided to check some other twitter/instagrams and was surprised to see that Sierra/Tyler/Mike recently visited Dan in Maine. Now I'm thinking maybe Sierra will stick with Mike/Dan/Kelly at merge and that Tyler will go with them as well.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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From press pix, I am pretty sure that Tyler goes with the BCs.

 

The closest clique seems to be the Jen-Joe-Hali-Shirin-Mike group. There was a twitter pix where this group went out and encountered Tyler on the st. Meaning that he is not part of their clique.

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Probst's EW tease:

 

 

I was trying to figure out what he meant by literally but then I was like well he probably doesn't know how to use the word correctly anyway so.

 

So it's only a great episode, not best of the season Probst?  Yeah, I think Jeff needs to understand the meaning of the word overhype (along with knowing that 'jump the shark' isn't a good thing).  It looks like they get a new camp, but starting over could also allude to alliances being broken and new loyalties being formed.

 

I also noticed in the promo pics that there's one of Tyler, Carolyn, Kelly, and Dan by the river.  Could be nothing, could be strategizing.  If Tyler/Carolyn are tight, and since the former WC tribe has the smallest numbers, I see them sticking together.  Better question is will Tyler pull her in with the BC or Carolyn pull him in with the NC?  And will Shirin join them or plot their demise?  If this season was predictable, and the BC take over, I can't imagine Jeff would hype it like he did.  So I'm thinking there's got to be a lot of blindsides and alliance shifting post-merge.

 

I'm hoping the fact that Rodney and Joaquin are so close has more to do with the fact that they spent a lot of pre-jury time together at Ponderosa, less to do with them being on the same tribe together for a few days (if spending a ton of time together out there equals closeness in real life).  Considering this cast is largely based on/near the West Coast, I always wondered if that had something to do with their tight bond as well.

 

In regards to the black vote, if it is in fact the twist, then I hope it doesn't lead to a lot of safe, predictable boots.  Although Jeff loved how it played out, so I can't imagine that's the case, unless it helped to spare some people.

Edited by LadyChatts
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Reality TV World: You were clearly blindsided by the vote and you looked at Rodney Lavoie Jr. for a second before you walked out. Did you think in that very moment he had lied to you and betrayed you or were you just looking to see your buddy's reaction to your vote off?

Joaquin Souberbielle: Wait, did I really?! Listen, when they said "Joaquin" for the fourth time, it was a complete blackout. I don't even remember going and having that last confessional with the producers and everything.

I totally blacked out, and the last thing I remember now was in the car on the way to Ponderosa. But honestly, yeah, I did think that he was the one. I was like, "Sh-t, man. This motherf-cker!"

But, no, no, no. I got back and [Kelly Remington told me], "Hey, it was [sierra Dawn Thomas]." And I was like, "What? I could kill her." But yeah, my initial thought was, "Damn, Rodney really stabbed me in the back." But, boy, was I wrong.

 

 

Did Joaquin spoil that Kelly goes next?  Yes it is possible that Kelly told him about this after the game but considering they were never on a tribe together that would seem kind of odd. You would think that someone like Tyler or his bro Rodney would be the one to tell him.

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Kelly was the prediction this week by Survivor Fever to go.  Since they were off a week with Joaquin, I'm wondering if they're a week off with Kelly.

 

Of course his "I got back..." could mean got home.  But hearing that from Kelly of all people back home?

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(edited)

I assume Joaquin meant after the season wrapped by 'I got back.' I think voting Kelly out next seems like such a wasted opportunity. I'd think Joe/Hali/Jenn would wanna go for Mike.

 

From press pix, I am pretty sure that Tyler goes with the BCs.

 

Pics from the ep you mean? If so, what from them makes you think that? Or do you mean like pics from after the show? If it's that, I agree. Like I said, he joined Mike and Sierra in visiting Dan in Maine last week, so I definitely think he sides with them at merge.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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I assume Joaquin meant after the season wrapped by 'I got back.' I think voting Kelly out next seems like such a wasted opportunity. I'd think Joe/Hali/Jenn would wanna go for Mike.

 

 

Pics from the ep you mean? If so, what from them makes you think that? Or do you mean like pics from after the show? If it's that, I agree. Like I said, he joined Mike and Sierra in visiting Dan in Maine last week, so I definitely think he sides with them at merge.

 

If Mike wins immunity that would nix that plan, although I could see them targeting Kelly over him regardless.  I think it's a stupid idea, especially because Kelly and Dan would be lost without him.  I don't believe those two would know how to function in this game without Mike calling the shots and holding their hand.  And he's likely going to be a stronger physical threat.  But it's very possible that sparing Joe might persuade some of his own alliance to spare Mike, at least this one vote.  I think that's stupid Survivor logic, but its happened before.  Hard to say.

 

I wouldn't mind losing Kelly.  She adds nothing either way but I wouldn't be sorry to see her go.  Frankly she comes off a bit dim to me, and that was even before the head injury.  Of course I would much rather see any of the remaining BC men go first, but getting one of Mike's little followers out of there is good enough.  I actually wonder if they go after Kelly and Rodney first, and with only 3 BC left (if that were to happen), the others start turning on each other, letting Mike/Dan/Sierra slink on in the game.  Especially if Sierra starts off voting with the others.

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But it's very possible that sparing Joe might persuade some of his own alliance to spare Mike, at least this one vote.  I think that's stupid Survivor logic, but its happened before.

 

I didn't think about that but that's a good point and I could easily see it happening. I don't really see Mike winning that IC so this would make more sense.

 

I won't be sad to lose Kelly either. Or anyone really. I'm not that invested in any of them except Shirin. Which makes it kind of more fun to watch really.

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The other factor is the hidden immunity idol. If you believe that Mike may have it or someone else would give it to Mike since he is the likely target the smart thing to do is just to vote someone else out who you don't believe has it or would be given one. In this case Kelly probably fits the bill.

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I wonder if anyone from Esemeca finds it before the merge.  Looks like they're building a new camp, so I would assume they are on borrowed time to find it.  Though who knows, production may give the camp a little nudge to find it before leaving.  Whoever gets booted next week probably isn't going to see it coming.  I guess whoever does the most bragging about having control and that they're orchestrating a blindside will be on the losing end of the vote.  I had also wondered if Mike & co might try to do a fake out with the idol, and Kelly winds up being the sacrifice.  Maybe it'll be another Vince/Nina situation that doesn't work out.  At any rate, to see smug smirks wiped off their faces would make a great episode.

 

Even though this is a close cast, Joe/Mike seem especially close, which is why I'm also wondering if they end up working together in the game at some point.  So that could also mean that Mike sticks around awhile. 

 

And even though Tyler/Carolyn may work with the former BC, I can't see that lasting.  I just can't believe that everyone out there will let their numbers remain the majority while voting off people that could help overthrow them.  

Edited by LadyChatts
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(edited)

Even though this is a close cast, Joe/Mike seem especially close, which is why I'm also wondering if they end up working together in the game at some point.  So that could also mean that Mike sticks around awhile. 

 

Mike seems close to a good number of people: Joe, Max, Jenn, Shirin, Sierra. Which is another reason why I think he's a likely winner.

 

I wonder if anyone from Esemeca finds it before the merge.  Looks like they're building a new camp, so I would assume they are on borrowed time to find it.  Though who knows, production may give the camp a little nudge to find it before leaving.

 

I can see this happening. I can't believe no one from BC has found the HII. I have to assume they didn't even try because if they did they almost certainly would have found it by now.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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Mike seems close to a good number of people: Joe, Max, Jenn, Shirin, Sierra. Which is another reason why I think he's a likely winner.

 

 

If Mike's ally Kelly is voted off next, and he's only left with Dan, that could bode well for him in the final 3.  He's made friends and enemies out there, but if he's able to slink into the background and join an alliance because he's outnumbered, he could get away without having had to backstab anyone.  I recently re-watched Vanuatu, so I'm thinking back to the Chris scenario, where he was able to get the ladies to turn on each other while pretending to play nice and be their friend.  Sierra, Rodney, and even the former WC that are left could turn on someone else in the final 3 for turning on them when they helped their alliance (if, for instance, there's 2 NC there).  And Dan isn't going to win.  He's rode Mike's coattails.  I can't even imagine what his jury speech would be like.  It'd be the one time Mike wouldn't tell him to put a sock in it.

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I don't know why we're basing the idea of Mike winning on whom he seems close to after the show.  The cast in general is close, so any configuration of people could be friendly.  Even if they're close there, they're still in other alliances.  I don't think they'd break them just because they like him.

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I don't know that I base Mike winning on who he's friends with outside the game.  It could mean they were close in the game.  Mike actually seems close to just about everyone.  And since Mike lives closer to the West Coast crew of Survivor players, I can see why he's showing up more on their IG and Twitter accounts.  However, it could also mean that he got a lot of respect in the game from said players.  Joaquin had really good things to say about Tyler, too, which could also point to a Tyler win.  I guess whatever happened in the game there's no hard feelings.  I'm just thinking I can possibly see a Mike win, if he gets short on allies, and manages to worm his way into some other group that starts picking itself off.  He can go to the final 3 with somewhat clean hands if the other 2 people either rode someone else's coattails or backstabbed a good percent of the jury.  Who knows, maybe this will finally be the non-bitter jury that gets back stabbed and front stabbed, and the final 3 brags about doing it, and they get respect.  I'm still hoping he doesn't win and the sooner he gets voted off, the better I'll feel.  Because the other people in the game that I don't want to see win likely have no chance as it is.

Edited by LadyChatts
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http://www.survivorfever.net/s30_press_images_ep7.html

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30_ep7_3_28.html

 

http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s30_web_promo_ep7.html

 

So here's some of the promos for this week.  Looks like both sides are asking for Tyler's vote, so he considers himself and Carolyn the swings.  Nothing much in the first 2 promo links, other than the challenge and traditional merge feast.  It looks like they are having to completely rebuild their camp, which I believe is at the old Esemeca.  I really hope anyone but a blue, unless it's Sierra, finds their idol.

 

Breaking it down, we have Mike/Kelly/Dan as a tight trio, Joe/Hali/Jenn/Will as a quartet, and Tyler/Carolyn as the swing duo.  That leaves Shirin, Sierra, and Rodney on the outside.  Even if Tyler/Carolyn joined Mike's group, it doesn't automatically give them a majority.  I could see Shirin joining the former NC.  So I feel like Sierra and Rodney may be more swing votes this week than anything.  I don't know if I'm expecting a surprising episode this week.  Jeff didn't go into overhype, and the description was generic; new alliances formed, contestants compete in a classic challenge.  So it may be an obvious boot this week, someone on the bottom.  Considering how concerned the blues feel about power couples, Tyler/Carolyn may want to watch it.

Edited by LadyChatts
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Shirin is almost certainly with the no collars now which is what I believe that scene with Hali last week was setting up and it is why Tyler now thinks he and Carlolyn are the swing votes. Also, of note Shirin was EW's mid season interview and she had this to say:

 

 http://www.ew.com/article/2015/03/30/survivor-worlds-apart-player-shirin-tells-all

 

"Going into that immunity challenge, Hali, Jenn and I had a deal to vote out Kelly if we had lost in order to weaken the original blue collars. Whether that would have actually happened, we’ll never know. I’m 100% happy with not knowing."

Edited by LanceM
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(edited)

SF is predicting Joe as the II winner, and Kelly as the boot.  She was the prediction last week, and since they were off a week with Joaquin, I'm hoping that means they were with Kelly as well.  I wonder if Tyler/Carolyn are the actual deciding votes, if Rodney and/or Sierra flip, or maybe idols come into play and Kelly winds up being the boot because of that.

 

Out of all the BC to target, she seems like a surprising choice.  I know she's tight with Mike, but I would think Mike would be a target before her (unless he's the one who wins II, not Joe).  

 

ETA: Next week's episode is titled "Keep It Real".  Could be from anyone, but I would guess maybe Rodney, Mike or Tyler.

Edited by LadyChatts
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SF is predicting Joe as the II winner, and Kelly as the boot.  She was the prediction last week, and since they were off a week with Joaquin, I'm hoping that means they were with Kelly as well.  I wonder if Tyler/Carolyn are the actual deciding votes, if Rodney and/or Sierra flip, or maybe idols come into play and Kelly winds up being the boot because of that.

 

Out of all the BC to target, she seems like a surprising choice.  I know she's tight with Mike, but I would think Mike would be a target before her (unless he's the one who wins II, not Joe).  

 

ETA: Next week's episode is titled "Keep It Real".  Could be from anyone, but I would guess maybe Rodney, Mike or Tyler.

Who is SF?

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In one of the promo pics Joe and Shirin are talking to Tyler, which is probably a bad idea. If Joe/Hali/Jenn are trying to get Tyler to vote with them they should probably keep Shirin away from the pitch since Tyler hates her and probably let that hate at least partially affect what side he chose in the first place.

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In one of the promo pics Joe and Shirin are talking to Tyler, which is probably a bad idea. If Joe/Hali/Jenn are trying to get Tyler to vote with them they should probably keep Shirin away from the pitch since Tyler hates her and probably let that hate at least partially affect what side he chose in the first place.

I would think that Tyler's at least sensible enough not to let his own personal feelings get in the way of the game.  Carolyn, I'm not sure about.  But Tyler, possibly.

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It looks like Joe and Tyler spoke by themselves first, then 30 minutes later Joe, Shirin, Tyler had that pow-wow. Good on Tyler to finally talk with Joe. It only took 3 weeks.

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(edited)

I'm not so sure, but even still, I think it'd be a better bet for Joe/Hali/Jenn to just not have Shirin take part in any convos with Tyler or Carolyn. And honestly like the only thing I really know about Tyler is that he hates Shirin.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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I don't know that Tyler hates Shirin Anyway, he is too much of a gamebot to let his feelings get in the way of him advancing further in the game. Unlike with Carolyn.

 

And Shirin needs to be in all strategy talks bc she is a Survivor mastermind and by the power of her uterus. I know she has a uterus since she showed it to everyone.:-)

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(edited)

From what little we've seen of Tyler I personally think he hates Shirin and that he very much would let that affect his decisions. Shirin herself has said that Tyler hates her and she is very bad at reading people's opinions of her, so for her to actually get that makes me think it's pretty obvious.

 

Description for next week's ep:

 

"Keep It Real" – Castaways walk a fine line and struggle to stay balanced at a reward challenge. Also, one castaway goes on a crazy man hunt to prevent another castaway from finding the idol.
Edited by peachmangosteen
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(edited)

It's a YMMV thing, so we'll just have to agree to disgaree. IMO Tyler doesn't like Shirin and never has and I think it played a part in his/Carolyn's decision to side with BC. So, I think having Shirin take part in any 'come to our side, Tyler' talks is probably not the best idea. But I hope it works out for NC+Shirin because they're the only people I'm rooting for.

 

I'm trying to figure out what Probst means by 'one of the best idol hides and finds in history.' I guess maybe they actually hid the HII in a legitimately hard-to-find place for once.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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(edited)

 

I agree peach.  One thing can elude us is just how powerful the social aspect is.  We sit in an observer position and can see the logical moves to get x person out or who is your best bet to proceed.  When someone gets under your skin, they just do, and that is hard to shake for the sake of the game.  Vince was the first casualty of the "I can't stand him get him out of here" thinking.  And good idea from where I sat but they were not thinking strength for challenges.  

 

ETA: I quoted the wrong post. 

Edited by wings707
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