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Ratings and Scheduling: Hail to the Gods

caracas1914

By caracas1914
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Ann Mack

Ann Mack

(edited)

Supergirl got lower ratings but had a slight advantage in viewers over Arrow at least for right now 3.53-SG an 3.52-Arrow! Arrow could still possibly adjust up. 

Edited by Ann Mack
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LeighAn
LeighAn

If Arrow gets poor premiere ratings I will personally blame Black Siren/Katie Cassidy,  cause even though that is not how ratings work like at all I was promised tens of millions of viewers would tune

Chaser
Chaser

So when you talked about being protective of Oliver this season....you weren't talking about his intelligence right?

tv echo
tv echo

If Arrow ratings had gone up this season, would anyone be giving credit to S3 and S4?  No, of course not.  They'd be crediting the current season of the show.   But because ratings have gone down

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Princess Vanellope

Princess Vanellope

2 hours ago, LeighAn said:

Now the question is how long do those viewers stay? They might get help in 5x09 but will those viewers stay for two months of hiatus? 

They won't stick around.  They didn't last year either.  In fact, if you look at the ratings for 408 and 409, the percentage they rose/fell was almost exactly the same.  In fact, they fell short of 407 demo after the crossover last season.  I assume it will be similar this season.  Golly that is going to be ugly.  Up 89% from 507 to 508, down probably about the same in 509.  Yikes.

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Morrigan2575

Morrigan2575

Man they're running behind. Wonder if they'll ever catch up. Seems like an overly long holiday delay going on. 

Arrow did too, would have been better if it matched it's last crossover number but, I believe this is the same demo as the S3 crossover.

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Starfish35

Starfish35

2 minutes ago, Morrigan2575 said:

Interesting. I really don't think there's any doubt that Barry Allen boosts ratings.

So the ratings difference are similar to S1/3 just a little lower. I'm sure they're happy with the ratings. I'm curious to see how it holds up

Yeah that's the question.  I think there was a definite boost in S3 from the crossover that boosted the ratings for the back half of season three.  But last year not so much.  So I don't know.  

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tv echo

tv echo

(edited)

This is interesting...

Real-time viewing: Why big moments at the beginning of a show are a total waste
RICK PORTER  DECEMBER 5, 2016
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/more-tv-news/real-time-viewing-why-big-moments-at-the-beginning-of-a-show-are-a-total-waste/

Quote

TV by the Numbers analyzed minute-by-minute viewing data the some of the largest local markets* in the country collected by our partner Gracenote for four of television’s biggest series — “Empire,” “Arrow,” “The Big Bang Theory” and “Legends of Tomorrow” — that aired last week. “Empire” and “Big Bang” are the two top-rated shows on broadcast TV thus far this season, while both “Arrow” and “Legends of Tomorrow” had ratings spikes thanks to a crossover with The CW’s other superhero shows.

(*New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Philadelphia, Houston and Atlanta for “Empire and “Big Bang” and all those minus Chicago for the two CW shows.)

In aggregating data from those markets, a consistent pattern among all four shows is that the audience isn’t necessarily all there at the top of the hour. In fact, on average the audience in the first two minutes of the four shows was about 27 percent smaller than the audience at each show’s peak.

On the flip side, audiences are conditioned to expect important things to happen at the end of a TV episode, and it bears out in the viewing patterns here: On “Empire,” “Arrow” and “Big Bang,” peak viewing came in the final six minutes of running time. “Legends of Tomorrow” hit its high at minute 47 and nearly matched that level in its final few minutes. ... (Read more)

Edited by tv echo
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BkWurm1

BkWurm1

15 hours ago, tv echo said:

On the flip side, audiences are conditioned to expect important things to happen at the end of a TV episode, and it bears out in the viewing patterns here: On “Empire,” “Arrow” and “Big Bang,” peak viewing came in the final six minutes of running time. “Legends of Tomorrow” hit its high at minute 47 and nearly matched that level in its final few minutes. ... (Read more)

Isn't it just as likely that DVR's and viewers just have switched over early for the show that is following it and so there's a spike from the new audience coming in and waiting for the other audience to leave?  

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Morrigan2575

Morrigan2575

(edited)

This might end up being irrelevant but, I just realized that Hair Spray Live airs tonight on NBC.

The Tag for the episode said Arrow Returns January 25th. I guess they pulled the dates in.

Edited by Morrigan2575
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way2interested

way2interested

The "cliffhanger" might be offset by the hiatus, though. From what I'm looking at, x09 and x10 typically just retain the same ratings (although 410's increased slightly in viewers), and if more people don't tune in after a cliffhanger of Oliver or Felicity dying, I wonder how much a seemingly revival of Laurel would actually get.  

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Chaser

Chaser

I think there are couple things that could hurt the return. The episode was super duper depressing and that "cliffhanger" is tired.

Oh look someone is back from the dead. Never seen that on Arrow, other than S2 and S3 and S4. Other than that, totally never!

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bijoux

bijoux

5 minutes ago, Chaser said:

 

Oh look someone is back from the dead. Never seen that on Arrow, other than S2 and S3 and S4. Other than that, totally never!

And S1! Oliver back from the dead.

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HighHopes

HighHopes

5 minutes ago, Chaser said:

I think there are couple things that could hurt the return. The episode was super duper depressing and that "cliffhanger" is tired.

Oh look someone is back from the dead. Never seen that on Arrow, other than S2 and S3 and S4. Other than that, totally never!

Well technically season one too. This entire series started with Oliver "coming back from the dead" so it actually doesn't surprise me that they repeat that trope every season... 

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Cleanqueen

Cleanqueen

Just checked the ratings and last year didn't really improve from the crossover ratings either, it was actually down from the previous episode(4x07). Only improvement was season 3 which jumped .3 in the demos. But I am not sure why 3x07 was low compared to 3x09 in the first place.

Also based on season 3 and season 4 ratings their mid season premiere were the same as the MSF. So I expect the same for Arrow. 

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lemotomato

lemotomato

5 hours ago, Cleanqueen said:

Just checked the ratings and last year didn't really improve from the crossover ratings either, it was actually down from the previous episode(4x07). Only improvement was season 3 which jumped .3 in the demos. But I am not sure why 3x07 was low compared to 3x09 in the first place.

Also based on season 3 and season 4 ratings their mid season premiere were the same as the MSF. So I expect the same for Arrow. 

409 was down 0.1 in demo, but up in viewers compared to 407.

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LeighAn

LeighAn

Looking at Frequency numbers it makes me wonder if the writers on other CW shows feel resentful of Berlantiverse The CW put all their energy behind their superhero fare that it doesn't give their other new shows much of a chance. And given that Berlantiverse shows are down as a whole it's probably not smart to not equally drive buzz around your other offerings. I mean even Riverdale doesn't seem like it's getting much push.

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Morrigan2575

Morrigan2575

(edited)

301 - 1.0

302 - 0.8 (Sara's death? Laurel heavy episode? Oliciyy breakup?)

303 - 0.9

304 - 1.0

305 - 1.1 (Felicity episode)

306 - 0.9 (Laurel/Roy heavy episode)

307 - 0.9 (Cupid)

308 - 1.4 (Crossover)

309 - 1.1 

310-311 - 1.1

312 - 1.2 (Oliver's return as GA)

Edited by Morrigan2575
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statsgirl

statsgirl

9 hours ago, Chaser said:

I think there are couple things that could hurt the return. The episode was super duper depressing and that "cliffhanger" is tired.

Oh look someone is back from the dead. Never seen that on Arrow, other than S2 and S3 and S4. Other than that, totally never!

Not just someone, Laurel.  People who love Laurel and want her back are going to be happy but many of them were already happy with the masks! fights! tone of this season.  The people they needed to woo back were the ones who weren't happy with this season and need a reason to come back in January.  And many of those people are going to be more put off at seeing Laurel back again then eager to see what's up with that.

They really are putting their eggs in the Comics basket.

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Chaser

Chaser

When they constructed these episodes they had no idea there would be a ratings concern. The idea of having to win back viewers from what they were doing wouldn't be a thought. Thats why I'm kind of baffled that they came up with this plan to start with.     I believe it was @Carrie Ann who typed up a great post about the weirdness of them taking Laurel as inspiration for the season since the character was famous for not being a hit with the fandom. I just don't get it. 

Even thinking about what DR said about Laurels death getting a bigger response then expected. That doesn't track for me. If KC/LL did get such a big backlash, they would have made big deal out of her coming back. They gave the info to an Olicity fan before announcing it at Comic Con (to a lukewarm reaction) KC had to announce her own appearance in the 100th. They implied it was lawyers bringing her back.  There wasn't even successful SM campaigns. She couldn't trend in either appearance on the show. Mainstream didn't even pick up anything. It was only Comic sites that made a big deal. 

Spoiler

It really makes me think DC Comics asked/demanded some things of Arrow. The biggest thing being BC. KC wasn't part of the deal for reasons but DC wants BC on Arrow. smh. 

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EmilyBettFan

EmilyBettFan

(edited)

It's just all so funny to me. They have lost the general audience which was mostly fans of OTA and Olicity + Felicity fans.

Now this is where they are stupid. They have lost a good chunk of three different fandoms (whatever people say of most fans liking all three) they still have lost three different types of aspects that resonated with a lot of fans. Would you rather lose three different fanbases or just one (LL fanbase)?

Edited by EmilyBettFan
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Mellowyellow

Mellowyellow

1 minute ago, EmilyBettFan said:

It's just all so funny to me. They have lost the general audience which was mostly fans of OTA and Olicity + Felicity fans.

Does it matter though? Aren't they still definitely in the renewed basket with like 120% of their ratings goal or something?

This is based on a site I saw another postered posted to answer a different question for me. 

I thought you had to do REALLY BADLY on CW to get cancelled?

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EmilyBettFan

EmilyBettFan

1 minute ago, Mellowyellow said:

Does it matter though? Aren't they still definitely in the renewed basket with like 120% of their ratings goal or something?

This is based on a site I saw another postered posted to answer a different question for me. 

I thought you had to do REALLY BADLY on CW to get cancelled?

Yes but it still looks bad. To go from getting 0.9-1.1 To now consistently getting .6 an so .7

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Mellowyellow

Mellowyellow

Just now, EmilyBettFan said:

Yes but it still looks bad. To go from getting 0.9-1.1 To now consistently getting .6 an so .7

Hey if it let's you tell the story you want to tell ;)

It's all about "organic" storylines right? And attracting the right kind of audience they want for the show?

Does anyone know what you need to get before they kill your show?

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thegirlsleuth

thegirlsleuth

I can't quote it with the spoiler tags, but after Amell's Facebook live yesterday, I absolutely agree with you @Chaser. After his comments,  which are so different than past comments, I think there was a corporate mandate.  

My question regarding their strategy was whether they thought they'd be able to keep the Olicity fans at the same time they went in a more comic book direction, whether they thought people didn't really care about Olicity that much and therefore would stick around, or whether they didn't care if they lost them because this new direction would help them attract a demo they preferred.  I think hard core Olicity fans make up a very small part of the demo, but my 60-year-old aunt commented at Thanksgiving that she'd stopped watching because it was no fun without a little romance.

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Primal Slayer

Primal Slayer

Considering when LL was on the show, it was getting better ratings (not saying the ratings drop is just caused due to her being dead) obviously she didn't cause ratings to fall for S5, a season where she has had all of 7mins so gaining back any fans is something they should aspire to do. 

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calliope1975

calliope1975

For me, if they'd changed one aspect, I might have been able to deal. But it was no Olicity. Bunch of newbs who don't interest me in the least. Pointless temporary LI's. Retread of S1 scenes when we're in S5. Lack of OTA. I could go on, but that's enough including some seriously shitty directing from Bamford in 3! episodes this year. 

Add the newbs but Olicity is together and TA has to work to mold everyone into a team. I'm there. I'm an unashamed shipper so walking back the almost marriage probably would have always been a dealbreaker with me, but there were other elements TPTB could have changed that I might have liked. All at once, though? Nope. 

I also recognize that there are a lot of people who are enjoying this season so this is working for a bunch of folk. I just wish I was one of them. 

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EmilyBettFan

EmilyBettFan

(edited)

Also this whole less romance thing is so ridiculous with some fans. This show has more romance now than it did before with two different couples. Well now one.  

But at least with Oliver and Felicity we saw a partnership and both of them growing while together from 4x09 and few more episode after that. So now it's all regression.

Edited by EmilyBettFan
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Chaser

Chaser

6 minutes ago, thegirlsleuth said:

I can't quote it with the spoiler tags, but after Amell's Facebook live yesterday, I absolutely agree with you @Chaser. After his comments,  which are so different than past comments, I think there was a corporate mandate.  

My question regarding their strategy was whether they thought they'd be able to keep the Olicity fans at the same time they went in a more comic book direction, whether they thought people didn't really care about Olicity that much and therefore would stick around, or whether they didn't care if they lost them because this new direction would help them attract a demo they preferred.  I think hard core Olicity fans make up a very small part of the demo, but my 60-year-old aunt commented at Thanksgiving that she'd stopped watching because it was no fun without a little romance.

It frustrates the hell out of me that the show seems to treat it as an either/or thing. It's not. I want good stunts, grounded gritty action, entertaining villains and Oliver sexing the hell out of Felicity. 

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statsgirl

statsgirl

I don't even need Oliver sexing up Felicity.  I just need to know that he cares how she's feeling rather than going out for a booty call so he can feel better.

20 minutes ago, thegirlsleuth said:

 I think hard core Olicity fans make up a very small part of the demo, but my 60-year-old aunt commented at Thanksgiving that she'd stopped watching because it was no fun without a little romance.

blows kisses to your aunt

They want guys watching, okay. But how stupid are they that they don't understand that a little background romance (as opposed to the full blown soap opera we've been treated to since 415), attracts guys too. Slanderent are four young black guys and I am not any of those but I pretty much agree with all of what they say.

RillaCuthbert does her last statistical analysis of crossovers, seasons and predictor models. 

http://rillacuthbert.tumblr.com/post/154199189091/arrow-ratings-predictor-models-crossovers-and

Quote

Looking pre-crossover, the Season 5 demo is down one-tenth among Women 18-34 & 18-49 & Men 18-34 from S4 (4x12-4x23 only) and down two-tenths among Men 18-49 from S4 (4x12-4x23 only). That suggests that overall the general downward trend in viewership comes from male and female viewer. The crossover demo DOES show that it is a far bigger draw for male viewers but I would hesitate to interpret too much from that. 

When you couple this data with the post 4x15 ratings swan dive and the lower than expected viewership for S5, one can infer that Arrow viewers as a group (both male and female) are increasingly less interested in watching the show live rather than a mass defection of any one demographic. 

I’m super ragey at Arrow too right now, but if you are going to highlight viewership trends to cast & crew please use evidence for your claim. You and your fandom friends (IRL or online) is not a valid statistical sample but instead an example of selection bias. Aka we pick our friends cause they like what we like and they are not representative of viewers as a whole. 

Advocate for yourself and what you want to see on TV but use ratings data wisely when you do so!

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LeighAn

LeighAn

The shows ratings dropped post 4x15 hiatus and never recovered except for briefly in 4x19 and again in the finale. But for the most part since 4x16 they've sat on at 0.6-0.7 average and that's while Laurel has been on the show or referenced in the show. So no one character or one relationship is either responsible or able to fix the shows ratings. Even if Olicity for instance got back together next episode the ratings will stay what they are. 

If anything with a longer winter hiatus this season I can see the show dropping more This is just Arrows core veiwing audience now which most shows eventually whittle down to. Unfortunately I think Arrow got there a lot sooner and faster then other CW shows have given that it percentage of veiwership decline is higher then the network trends.

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Chaser

Chaser

(edited)

Arrow used to have one of strongest fandoms out there. Vocal and passionate. Free PR for The CW. I thought that as the ratings slowly declined to a small core group, the vocal fans would keep it relevant. Think Supernatural. Supernatural is a beast. 

I don't think I've ever seen a fandom become so disengaged so quickly. 

Edited by Chaser
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