S39: Preview & Speculation Thread

[LadyChatts]

5 hours ago, Special K said:

There has to be a reason they spent so much time on Dan's inappropriate behavior during the first episode.

That, and they mentioned him going through people’s stuff in the last episode.  While not inappropriate (although going through bags shouldn’t be allowed, IMO), maybe there’s something to that, too.  It could start there and then spiral.

[LadyChatts]

Merge next week.  We already know Jack is the first member of the jury.  Personally, I hate when they start the jury before the merge, because there's people Jack hasn't had time to get to know that are Old Lairo.  That said, he's a nice guy, and I'm glad he'll be sticking around every week.  

Looked like some chaos with the vote-Elaine told Dan his name was being thrown out, looked like Lauren was telling Missy that her name was possibly out there, Kellee's name being thrown out.  Did Missy say at the end she didn't want to look like a punk?

[TVFan1]

I wonder is original Lairo will be picked off by original Vokai. Kellee said something about getting rid of the Lairo members next week. 

Don't like that Jack made the jury either. He didn't make the merge, so he should be pre jury, but he's not.

Edited November 7, 2019 by TVFan1

[Special K]

12 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

  Did Missy say at the end she didn't want to look like a punk?

I think she said "I don't want to go out like a punk."

[LadyChatts]

Worth noting that next week's episode is 2 hours, so it'll be interesting if some of the chaos with voting and flipping that was in the preview appears in the first half or the second half.

I think there's more people that are going to be vulnerable than are going to be safe.  Of course, this could all be a red herring and people are going to try to stick with their original tribal lines.

[TVFan1]

5 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Worth noting that next week's episode is 2 hours, so it'll be interesting if some of the chaos with voting and flipping that was in the preview appears in the first half or the second half.

I think there's more people that are going to be vulnerable than are going to be safe.  Of course, this could all be a red herring and people are going to try to stick with their original tribal lines.

Do 2 castaways get voted off because of the 2 hour episode? I would guess so.

[Rachel RSL]

I think it's just basically 2 regular episodes shown back to back so there should be 2 people going next week.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Rachel RSL

[LadyChatts]

So next week, two people getting voted off?

[TVFan1]

15 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

So next week, two people getting voted off?

I wonder if this is going to play out like Ghost Island where 2 groups enter Tribal Council one at a time and vote out one player from each group.

[LadyChatts]

1 hour ago, TVFan1 said:

I wonder if this is going to play out like Ghost Island where 2 groups enter Tribal Council one at a time and vote out one player from each group.

That might benefit Karishma, Noura, and Janet if they can wind up together.  For a one hour episode, that's going to be a lot-the challenges, a visit to IOTI, and 2 boots.  Plus everything else they try to wedge in there.

Also, we see Elaine telling Tommy that they are throwing his name out (whoever 'they' is).  She's been on the Old Lairo bandwagon, so would she be tattling on Karishma/Noura/Janet?  And why would it matter, since they are down in numbers?  Whatever the case, I feel like Elaine went from being a pretty good character to the girl who cried "they're throwing your name out."

Edited November 14, 2019 by LadyChatts

[peachmangosteen]

10 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

So next week, two people getting voted off?

Fucking good. Get rid of all these pieces of shit at once imo!

[Special K]

22 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

Fucking good. Get rid of all these pieces of shit at once imo!

We need a different Ponderosa location, though, to isolate the despicable people.  I don't care to watch them at Ponderosa (often my favorite part of the show), and I don't want to know that our heroes have to deal with them there.

OTOH, it would be awfully satisfying to watch Jamal patronizingly mansplain to them how to be appropriate, respectful, not-malevolent adults while they are captive there.  Let it be so!
 

[LadyChatts]

So next week, Dean is talking about a goat army assembling...but doesn't consider himself a goat?  Does he really not understand this game?  He wanted to go to the end with Aaron?

Since we also got a clip of Sandra being attacked by a chicken while was eating, I'm guessing nothing too exciting happens next week.

Edited November 21, 2019 by LadyChatts

[TVFan1]

1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

So next week, Dean is talking about a goat army assembling...but doesn't consider himself a goat?  Does he really not understand this game?  He wanted to go to the end with Aaron?

Since we also got a clip of Sandra being attacked by a chicken while was eating, I'm guessing nothing too exciting happens next week.

How many goats are in that army?

[plurie]

7 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

How many goats are in that army?

Karishma, Dan, and Noura, for sure. But only two are needed, so I expect at least one of them to go before the finale.

[ProfCrash]

10 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

So next week, Dean is talking about a goat army assembling...but doesn't consider himself a goat?  Does he really not understand this game?  He wanted to go to the end with Aaron?

Since we also got a clip of Sandra being attacked by a chicken while was eating, I'm guessing nothing too exciting happens next week.

I think Dean saw Aaron as a meat shield.As long as Aaron is there, Dean doesn't give the appearance of being a threat. Because he has won and almost won all of those immunity challenges.

Oh wait.....

[peachmangosteen]

Dean's completely inflated sense of how well he's doing in the game is just about the only entertaining thing left in this season.

[Special K]

10 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

Dean's completely inflated sense of how well he's doing in the game is just about the only entertaining thing left in this season.

Haha!  I thought surely he must be including himself in the "goat army" comment.  Such an army of misfits:  Dan, Karishma, Noura, Dean.  Except  he doesn't seem to have any self-awareness or sense of humor.

I guess that leaves us with Tommy (semi-goat, indistinct edit), Janet (FTW!), or Elaine (FTW part 2!)

ETA:  Oops, forgot Elizabeth!  I believe she is not long for the game.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Special K

[Libby]

I'd be okay with a Tommy win. I think that the only guilty parties besides Dan in last week's episode were Missy, Elizabeth, and production.

Tommy and Aaron were wrong, but they truly believed that Janet was using the Dan problem to advance her game. They were not aware of what Missy and Elizabeth had done. When the episode aired last week, they both realized that they misread the situation and apologized.

Production, who were the only ones with all of the information at the time, should have pulled Dan from the game. Other than Dan himself, I think that they are the most guilty in this whole thing.

While Missy and Elizabeth playing up their discomfort to advance their game and then throwing Janet under the bus was deplorable, I think that they honestly believed that Kellee was using the Dan situation to trick Missy. They also didn't realize that they misread the situation until the show aired.

It's really unbelievable that Dan's lack of self control could hurt so many people. It's something that should have been so easy, don't touch a person who asked you not to touch them. So many people have been negatively affected because Dan was incapable of or wouldn't do this very simple thing.

Viewers, contestants, Survivor commentators, the show itself - hundreds of people have been negatively impacted by one man's very, very bad behavior. It's mind boggling.

[LadyChatts]

15 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

I think Dean saw Aaron as a meat shield.As long as Aaron is there, Dean doesn't give the appearance of being a threat. Because he has won and almost won all of those immunity challenges.

Oh wait.....

What I’ve never quite understood about the logic of meat shields is, what happens when they win immunity after immunity?  Aaron had a bad night but could have gone back on a winning streak.  So if people really thought Dean was a physical threat, he’d be next anyway.

But it’s not like they do.  He’s been targeted in the past for being on the bottom of an alliance, not because they are scared of his muscles.  That he has to roll up his sleeves to try and point out.

ETA: Here's Jeff's blurb for next week from EW:

Quote

Looking ahead, what can you tell us about next week’s episode and what the repercussions of that double vote-off will be?
Rob and Sandra are still living on Island of The Idols and they’re starting to feel like an old married couple. They have a new test ready for another visitor!

Yeah, next week sounds like nothing is happening.  Dean will act more important than he really is, Tommy will get mad when someone throws his name out, Karishma will cry, Noura will be Noura, Lauren will make another incorrect assumption about someone, Elizabeth will try and blend in while plotting murder against Elaine, Dan will be edited as a non-creeper, Janet will feel too comfortable in her current position, and Elaine will try to go back and pretend she knows nothing about what's going on. 

Of those left, who hasn't been to IOTI?  Tommy, Lauren, Dan, Dean?  Please let Dan or Dean go.  I want to see Sandra and Rob's reaction to those two.

Edited November 22, 2019 by LadyChatts

[Lantern7]

Never too early to speculate . . . 

How will CBS and Probst handle recent events at the Reunion? Will he try to whiz the controversy past us and hope for the best? Or would he come out in a sweater and low lighting, promising "a very special Survivor Reunion special"?

I'm hoping Day 39 is Elaine, Janet and Karishma. That would annoy the shit out of Probst.

[pennben]

We are going to have the shortest reunion ever & flip to previewing Season 40 so fast that our heads will spin, if not braced. 

[LadyChatts]

31 minutes ago, pennben said:

We are going to have the shortest reunion ever & flip to previewing Season 40 so fast that our heads will spin, if not braced. 

I feel like this will be the least amount of attention ever paid to a winner.  They can't avoid the Dan issue, and with the controversy surrounding how they handled it, I'm curious if they will try and make up for it.  But with all the parties involved, and so little time, it does make you wonder how they will cover everything?  Of course, Jeff will probably bring people onstage during the show to talk about it, to try and make up for time.  And you know they'll want to talk to Rob and Sandra, and get everyone's opinion on the theme.  But is that just asking for trouble if it gets in the way of talking about the Dan issue?  I really think they will try to handle it better, but who knows.  They might just cut their losses and hope that people forget about it by next season.  

And with the theme of S40, they were probably hoping to give that some special attention.

[AlleC17]

On 11/21/2019 at 6:16 AM, Libby said:

I'd be okay with a Tommy win. I think that the only guilty parties besides Dan in last week's episode were Missy, Elizabeth, and production.

Tommy and Aaron were wrong, but they truly believed that Janet was using the Dan problem to advance her game. They were not aware of what Missy and Elizabeth had done. When the episode aired last week, they both realized that they misread the situation and apologized.

Production, who were the only ones with all of the information at the time, should have pulled Dan from the game. Other than Dan himself, I think that they are the most guilty in this whole thing.

While Missy and Elizabeth playing up their discomfort to advance their game and then throwing Janet under the bus was deplorable, I think that they honestly believed that Kellee was using the Dan situation to trick Missy. They also didn't realize that they misread the situation until the show aired.

It's really unbelievable that Dan's lack of self control could hurt so many people. It's something that should have been so easy, don't touch a person who asked you not to touch them. So many people have been negatively affected because Dan was incapable of or wouldn't do this very simple thing.

Viewers, contestants, Survivor commentators, the show itself - hundreds of people have been negatively impacted by one man's very, very bad behavior. It's mind boggling.

Is Feely Dan the only one who hasn't apologized?  He is the one that started the entire mess, was completely in the wrong, but I haven't seen/heard that he apologized which is all kinds of messed up. 

[LadyChatts]

Family visit next week.  Guessing there won't be time for IOTI.  

Bigger question is, can Karishma survive?  Tommy/Lauren are a solid duo, and everyone else is anti-Karishma. I think Dean and Dan will definitely want her gone.  

[TVFan1]

7 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Family visit next week.  Guessing there won't be time for IOTI.  

Bigger question is, can Karishma survive?  Tommy/Lauren are a solid duo, and everyone else is anti-Karishma. I think Dean and Dan will definitely want her gone.  

Wasn't Elaine shown arguing with Noura or something to that effect? Maybe Elaine could be in trouble?

[Nashville]

6 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Bigger question is, can Karishma survive?  Tommy/Lauren are a solid duo, and everyone else is anti-Karishma. I think Dean and Dan will definitely want her gone.  

After tonight’s vote, my guess is - no fucking way.  

• Karishma just idol’ed her way out of a near-unanimous vote, which is going to freak out anybody previously considering her easily disposable.  
• Said idol play also drastically diminishes Karishma’s goat appeal; guess what, kid - you got a resume now.
• Absolutely nothing I’ve observed of Karishma‘s behavior suggests (to me, anyway) she is the sort of player who can put past hurt feelings - like of, say, a near-unanimous eviction vote - in her rear view mirror, and work with those people moving forward.  IMHO Karishma is BIG on carrying grudges.

[watch2much]

I want to see if Karishma's husband comes for family visit given what she said.

[Rachel RSL]

Since he didn't know what she said until it aired, long after the season finished filming, I'm pretty sure he'll be there.

[LadyChatts]

12 hours ago, Nashville said:

After tonight’s vote, my guess is - no fucking way.  

• Karishma just idol’ed her way out of a near-unanimous vote, which is going to freak out anybody previously considering her easily disposable.  
• Said idol play also drastically diminishes Karishma’s goat appeal; guess what, kid - you got a resume now.
• Absolutely nothing I’ve observed of Karishma‘s behavior suggests (to me, anyway) she is the sort of player who can put past hurt feelings - like of, say, a near-unanimous eviction vote - in her rear view mirror, and work with those people moving forward.  IMHO Karishma is BIG on carrying grudges.

Dan and Dean I can't see in any scenario voting to keep her.  Noura is her own free spirit, so who knows.  I think Janet will go with the group.  Tommy, Lauren, and Elaine are wild cards.  Elaine did openly say this past ep that she wanted to vote her off over Elizabeth, but was going with the majority, but if Elaine thought keeping her would end up benefiting her game, I could see her keeping her around.  Tommy/Lauren would probably be the deciding factor whether she stayed or went.  Again, why they want to get rid of someone that they perceive is a goat and they don't think can win, I don't know.  

I think Karishma might be surprised how lopsided the vote was for her.  And she did vote Janet, which was interesting that she still went along with what Dan told her.  

[Libby]

I hate to say it because they aren't my favorites, but if Tommy and Lauren are running the game, which seems to be the general consensus, one of them probably deserves to win.

I want to see Janet win, but I think that it's going to be Tommy.

As long as Dan doesn't win, I'm okay with whoever. If Dan wins, I'll be furious.

[Josh371982]

22 hours ago, Libby said:

I hate to say it because they aren't my favorites, but if Tommy and Lauren are running the game, which seems to be the general consensus, one of them probably deserves to win.

I want to see Janet win, but I think that it's going to be Tommy.

As long as Dan doesn't win, I'm okay with whoever. If Dan wins, I'll be furious.

Oh they do. But as a viewer its frustrating and boring to watch. Shaking my head at 6 people ganging up on non threats Karishma and Noura. the rest deserve to lose to Tommy at this point. Especially Lauren with her hes my number 1! Stupid woman 

[violet and green]

For once, I am excited about the loved one's visit. They had better bring out Karishma's husband for it. I want to see a slow-mo run across the sand into his arms (hopefully with no Bachelor handshake).

[Bryce Lynch]

On 11/28/2019 at 7:15 PM, LadyChatts said:

Dan and Dean I can't see in any scenario voting to keep her.  Noura is her own free spirit, so who knows.  I think Janet will go with the group.  Tommy, Lauren, and Elaine are wild cards.  Elaine did openly say this past ep that she wanted to vote her off over Elizabeth, but was going with the majority, but if Elaine thought keeping her would end up benefiting her game, I could see her keeping her around.  Tommy/Lauren would probably be the deciding factor whether she stayed or went.  Again, why they want to get rid of someone that they perceive is a goat and they don't think can win, I don't know.  

I think Karishma might be surprised how lopsided the vote was for her.  And she did vote Janet, which was interesting that she still went along with what Dan told her.  

I think there are a lot of possibilities.  There hasn't been a lot of loyalty in this season, from Day 1.  Now we are getting to the point where players normally focus on the endgame.  I could see a lot of the other players, most importantly Janet and Dan seeing Tommy and Lauren as threats and deciding it is time to eliminate them.  

I think Janet is the other one who most other players would see as a threat.   Elaine should be seen as a big threat, but she may be far enough under the radar with her "Aw shucks, I'm just a redneck." act.   

I don't think anyone would be afraid to sit next to Karishma, Noura, Dean or Dan at FTC.  

[marys1000]

Not sure I understand Karishma's plentitude of screen time right from the get go.  I have to think she makes it to the end as a goat somehow?  If there is a goat army could we actually end up with a "I refuse to vote for xyz so that leaves Karishma"?

[Nashville]

3 hours ago, marys1000 said:

Not sure I understand Karishma's plentitude of screen time right from the get go.  I have to think she makes it to the end as a goat somehow?  If there is a goat army could we actually end up with a "I refuse to vote for xyz so that leaves Karishma"?

 Doubtful.  If an overabundance of can-chewers are still in play come FTC, then I’d suppose the vote would devolve along the lines of previously-existing personal alliances - and Karishma doesn’t fit that bill with anybody.

[Josh371982]

6 minutes ago, Nashville said:

 Doubtful.  If an overabundance of can-chewers are still in play come FTC, then I’d suppose the vote would devolve along the lines of previously-existing personal alliances - and Karishma doesn’t fit that bill with anybody.

I'm thinking since they now start at F6 on Finale night cause CBS head honchos arent fans of the Reunion Per Jeff Probst, that means they have to cram like 5 tribals in one episode. I bet Karishma just may make Finale and gets booted in First tribal since everyone is playing for Tommy and Lauren and I'm almost positive it's going to be a boring finale of Tommy and Lauren Sailing to F3 with Noura or Dean where Tommy gets all the votes cause of Lauren and others being dumb enough to keep Tommy in the game 

[Rachel RSL]

Why aren't the head honchos fans of the reunion?  I mean, sure, Jeff and random kids in the audience and Sia and Kevin Hart usually make it unwatchable but it could be great if they would just do it properly.

[Special K]

13 minutes ago, Rachel RSL said:

Why aren't the head honchos fans of the reunion?  I mean, sure, Jeff and random kids in the audience and Sia and Kevin Hart usually make it unwatchable but it could be great if they would just do it properly.

Seriously.  What could be better than some random kid predicting the winner, and Jeffie letting her write her parchment on his back?  <<snark>>

[LadyChatts]

Next week, Noura seems to be acting crazy.  Big surprise.

Tommy says he needs to get Lauren out because she can win.  It sounds like maybe she heard her name come up, and he was trying to reassure her?  So will it be a red herring, and someone predictable like Elaine or Janet go?  Will Tommy actually betray Lauren?  Or maybe someone else in the alliance gets blindsided (please let it be Dean).  Or Dan.

[TVFan1]

52 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Next week, Noura seems to be acting crazy.  Big surprise.

Tommy says he needs to get Lauren out because she can win.  It sounds like maybe she heard her name come up, and he was trying to reassure her?  So will it be a red herring, and someone predictable like Elaine or Janet go?  Will Tommy actually betray Lauren?  Or maybe someone else in the alliance gets blindsided (please let it be Dean).  Or Dan.

It will probably be Elaine or Janet because they are the only likable ones left. Seeing Lauren go or any of the others would be great. If only we could be that lucky.

[plurie]

8 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Next week, Noura seems to be acting crazy.  Big surprise.

Tommy says he needs to get Lauren out because she can win. 

They want us to THINK Tommy is talking about Lauren, but he just said "she," but I fear it's Janet that he's referring to. Either one of them might be able to beat him.

[LadyChatts]

7 hours ago, plurie said:

They want us to THINK Tommy is talking about Lauren, but he just said "she," but I fear it's Janet that he's referring to. Either one of them might be able to beat him.

Yeah, when I went back and watched it I realized how misleading that was.  My guess is he’s talking about Janet or Elaine.  

[ByaNose]

I think Tommy is talking about any of the woman less Noura. He doesn't think Dan or Dean have a shot. He close with the woman and might have to get his hands dirty next week to move on. It will be interesting to see who takes the first shot and who Tommy views as his biggest threat to beat him.

[Lantern7]

Getting ready for Cringeapalooza 2019. I’m thinking at least half the audience will be plants. Honestly, I can’t see Probst dealing with the Reunion without looking like a jackass.

[Rachel RSL]

Agreed.  I will be shocked if the entire audience isn't filled with CBS interns.

[SVNBob]

20 minutes ago, Lantern7 said:

 I’m thinking at least half the audience will be plants

 

1 minute ago, Rachel RSL said:

Agreed.  I will be shocked if the entire audience isn't filled with CBS interns.

From what I've seen of social media posts filtered through to Reddit, there'll be lots of Survivor alumni in attendance. 

And not just the bigger names.  People like Gillian (the "elephant dung" lady from Gabon), Nina (the deaf woman from Worlds Apart) and lumberjane Tina (the first boot from Panama).

In fact, most of the alumni I've seen have been women.  Hmm....

[Lantern7]

2 hours ago, SVNBob said:

 

And not just the bigger names.  People like Gillian (the "elephant dung" lady from Gabon), Nina (the deaf woman from Worlds Apart) and lumberjane Tina (the first boot from Panama).

In fact, most of the alumni I've seen have been women.  Hmm....

Tina? Dang. Mixed feelings about her . . . on the one hand, she came on at the wrong time, after for son (IIRC) died, and her tears were enough for the other three women to vote her off. On the other hand, the alternative was Cirie. She survived the first two votes, and she became a legend soon afterward.

Female alumni? Ah . . . Operation Public Relations Shield.

[LadyChatts]

I wish they’d fill the audience with alumni of Probst hecklers, like Jonny FairPlay, Shane Powers, Max Dawson.  As others have said, I hope the reunion goes one way and that Probst keeps his big mouth out of most of it.  But I know he’s going to want to be the hero.  I just hope it’s not awkward where they talk about Dan, and then “so, first boot, in 30 seconds how you feeling about your time on the island.”

It’s interesting, too, that there’s still no word about Survivor lasting beyond S40.